Research Summary Materials Prognosis

Predicting Remaining Life by

Fusing the Physics of Failure
Modeling with Diagnostics
G.J. Kacprzynski, A. Sarlashkar, M.J. Roemer, A. Hess, and W. Hardman

Editors Note: Presentation of this paper is supported by the Air

Force Research Laboratory, under agreement number F33615-
01-D-5801. The U.S. Government is authorized to reproduce and
distribute reprints for governmental purposes notwithstanding any
copyright notation thereon. The views and conclusions contained
herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as
necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements,
either expressed or implied, of the Air Force Research Laboratory
or the U.S. Government.
Technology that enables failure pre-
diction of critical machine components
(prognostics) has the potential to
significantly reduce maintenance costs
and increase availability and safety.
This article summarizes a research
effort funded through the U.S. Defense
Advanced Research Projects Agency
and Naval Air System Command aimed
at enhancing prognostic accuracy
through more advanced physics-of-
failure modeling and intelligent utiliza-
tion of relevant diagnostic information.
H-60 helicopter gear is used as a
case study to introduce both stochastic
sub-zone crack initiation and three-
dimensional fracture mechanics lifing
models along with adaptive model
updating techniques for tuning key
failure mode variables at a local
material/damage site based on fused
vibration features. The overall prognos-
tic scheme is aimed at minimizing inher-
ent modeling and operational uncertain-
ties via sensed system measurements
that evolve as damage progresses.
INTRODUCTION
In both military and commercial
applications, inaccurate assessments of
the current health state and predicted
and validating prognostic technologies
for various mechanical components
and associated sub-systems. One such
program funded multiple run-to-failure/
seeded fault (RTF/SF) tests on the
H-60 helicopter intermediate gearbox
(IGB) pinion gear at the Helicopter
Transmission Test Facility (HTTF) in
Patuxent River, Maryland (Figure 1).
Run-to-failure/seeded fault results
were used to provide realistic indications
of state awareness based on vibration
feature health indicators and non-
destructive evaluations related to
actual material damage levels, identify
sensitivities and uncertainties in the
effects of material properties and
manufacturing defects on the component
capacity, and provide invaluable calibra-
tion information to the prognostic
model at various times in the life of the
component so that it can be evaluated
IGB Input
Pinion (25T)
60
55
both in terms of long-term capability
prediction (asset management) and
near-term damage minimization (fault
accommodation).
During the RTF/SF testing, an IGB
spiral bevel pinion was seeded with two
electrical discharge machine (EDM)
notches (heel and toe) on the drive
side of one of the pinion gear teeth
to artificially accelerate tooth root
cracking. A testing torque profile was
designed to load the gearbox at 2,711
N-m (rated torque for unlimited life)
and 3,173 N-m (special-ops rating with
limited life). Several accelerometers
were placed on the gearbox with a health
and usage monitoring system (HUMS)
used to generate the vibration features
indicative of gear duress. Microscopic
optical inspection of the notches was
performed at 2-h intervals in addition to
sonic thermography to detect the earliest
Figure 1. An H-60 IGB
gearbox and spiral bevel
pinion gear.
IGB
Output
Gear (31T)
Figure 2. Hardness variability.
St-T
St-L
InB-L
In-L
Rein-L

future capability of mechanical systems

HRC

can result in decisions that may under- 50

utilize assets with remaining capability

or potentially overtax assets that are
45
on the verge of failure. To this end,
the U.S. Defense Advanced Research
Projects Agency (DARPA) has initiated 40
several programs aimed at improving 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Distance from Surface (mm)
asset utilization decisions by developing

2004 March JOM 29

 PROGNOSTIC MODEL FRAMEWORK to more accurate prognostic technolo-
gies. Details on the prognostic model
Prognostic model types can range from purely statistical or data-driven methodologies
(i.e., historical failure rates and time-series predictions) to high-fidelity models that framework can be found in the sidebar.
encapsulate failure mechanisms and their progression. This spectrum of prognostics
BUILDING A
is covered in detail elsewhere.3 The availability of established vibration-based crack
detection features, controlled test conditions, sensitive, periodic inspections, and the desire PHYSICS MODEL
for the tightest possible prognostic confidence bounds under this program warranted the
The principal failure mode considered
most technically comprehensive and knowledge-rich prognostic model currently possible.
This model fits within a generic prognostic module architecture shown in Figure A, in this work was a single fatigue crack
configured for components that fail via fatigue mechanisms. propagating from the EDM notch in the
This comprehensive approach allows for the integration of material-level models, fillet region for a single tooth. This was
system-level data/information fusion algorithms, and adaptive modeling techniques for an important failure mode to consider
tuning key failure mode variables at a local material/damage site. The output failure rate
because the separation of a single tooth
prediction is developed within a probabilistic framework to directly identify confidence
bounds associated with the specific component failure mode progression. By providing can lead to complete loss of power
continuous updates/adjustments to the critical parameters used by the probabilistic transmission under certain conditions. It
fatigue/damage models based on observing system-level measurements, more accurate was assumed that the engineering-size
failure rate predictions are possible throughout the life of the component. crack that would form at the EDM
notch due to cyclic loading would
behave similarly to an in-service crack
in terms of both its impact on the sensed
vibration signature as well as its crack-
propagation characteristics.
To determine with a particular
confidence level the number of cycles
until a tooth root crack at one of the
EDM notches has initiated to the point
that linear elastic fracture mechanics
(LEFM) would apply, the following
information had to be generated:
Loading profile of a pinion tooth
throughout a complete load cycle
with the mating gear
Plastic zone size estimation for
each notch
Material properties associated with
the material fatigue life and linear
Figure A. The framework for model-based prognostics.
elastic fracture mechanics
possible cracks. Two complete tests were submitted by the authors in Reference Gleason Corporation, with the permis-
performed prior to the development of 2 with additions addressing gear failure sion of Sikorsky Inc., provided Impact
the prognostic model described herein. modes and failure mode transitions, Technologies with the IGB pinion
The first test initiated a crack at the case hardening considerations, and geometry and associated load definition
heel notch location in approximately 15 how material science can contribute that represented the pinions load history
loading h (23 elapsed h) at 2,711 N-m,
which propagated to 2.16 cm in another
Elastic stress Sub-zones where local
6 loading h under 3,173 N-m. For the profile strain is theory applied to
second specimen, a load of 3,173 N-m calculate initiation lives at
was maintained across the gearbox for Sub-zone sampled points
propagation
the duration of the test. Similar to test rate = d/(N2-N1)
#1, a crack at the heel notch initiated in
Notch-affected
approximately 2.5 loading h with full region Sampled points 1 and
propagation in another 3 loading h. 2 with initiation lives of
1 cm
Throughout this article, various N1 and N2 cycles
EDM Notch Depth
additional test results will be revealed Sub-zone size d
when comparisons or explanations of Definition of initial crack size ai
the prognostic model developed are
Initial crack size ai is defined as the location where crack
required. More detail on the testing and propagation rate da/dN is greater than the sub-zone propagation rate
test results can be found in Reference 1
and in the article by W. Hardman in this Figure 3. A sub-zone approach used for crack initiation.
issue. The material presented herein
is an extension of a technical paper

30 JOM March 2004


Figure 4. A computed surface trajectory.
through a complete engagement with
the mating gear. Impact Technologies
used this data to perform mesh sensitiv-
ity studies and generate a full three-
dimensional (3-D) dynamic stress
analysis using ANSYS. Model data
provided by Gleason Corporation was
in the form of three pinion teeth defined
about the global origin of the pinion,
and a load history, which encompassed
one tooth having load applied from zero
to a maximum and then unloaded back
to zero (R ratio of 0 where R = minimum
stress/maximum stress).
A typical failure scenario would
involve a formation and propagation
of a crack in the tooth fillet region.
The primary stress field in this area
is nominally uniaxial and is oriented
along the fillet. Therefore, the initial
crack formation and propagation would
be perpendicular to the base fillet. How-
ever, computational fracture mechanics
models show that once the cracks grow
past the field of influence of the fillet,
the crack trajectory is influenced by the
rim design for the gears.4
It is important to consider that gears
can be either through hardened or case
hardened. Unlike through-hardened
gears, case-hardened gears can have a
hardened case of up to 2.5 mm with
hardness in the range 6163 Rc. The
core is significantly lower in hardness.
One commonly followed convention is
to define case thickness as the distance
from the surface where the hardness falls
to 50 Rc. This combination of hard case
and tough core offers a good compromise
between high surface durability/fatigue as
well as reliable mechanical performance
under potential dynamic gear loading.
However, the presence of the hardened
case leads to a continuous variation of
fatigue and fracture properties within
the case and therefore requires special
considerations when performing life
2004 March JOM
Figure 5. A crack front and crack length metric.
analysis. Figure 2 shows a representa-
tive hardness variation.4 Another conse-
quence of case hardening is the presence
of compressive residual stresses within
the case.4 These compressive stresses
could be as high as 300 MPa and vary
within the case. Further, the compressive
stress variation within the case may or
may not be monotonic.
Thus, the accurate prognostics for
case-hardened gears require the follow-
ing information:
Accurate definition of 3-D stress
field throughout the gear.
The extent of the case-hardened
layer and the variation of material
fatigue and fracture mechanics
20
18
15
Crack Length - a (mm)
13
10
7
5 a vs. N Refit for 2,847 N-m
3 +1 Sigma CCL Bound
0
0 0.2 0.4
Figure 6. An observed crack surface tra-
jectory view from the heel of the tooth.
properties within the case-hardened
layer.
Compressive stress distribution
within the case-hardened layer
and beyond.
Reliable small crack growth data
within the case-hardened layer.
Material fatigue and fracture
properties for the core.
Except for the first listed item,
statistical distributions rather than
average values are essential to perform
probabilistic life predictions.
FATIGUE LIFE PREDICTION
For predicting the total fatigue life of
a component with notches, strain-life
Figure 7. A post-
mortem analysis
Test 1.
A vs. N Cures (IGB pinion)
Figure 8. Model-based crack
length vs. cycles.
Calculated a vs. N (3,173 N-m)
+1 Sigma Bound
-1 Sigma Bound
a vs. N Refit for 2,983 N-m
a vs. N Refit for 2,711 N-m
Critical Crack Length (CCL)
-1 Sigma CCL Bound
0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
Number of Load Cycles - N x 106
31
 Table I. Predictions vs. Ground Truth the EDM notch to low-cycle fatigue.
The total strain amplitude in the EDM
Crack Initiation and Crack Propagation to Critical notch is defined as the summation of
Propagation to 0.0191 mm Crack Length (20.96 mm)
the elastic and plastic strain amplitudes,
Test 1 Test 2 Test 1 Test 2 which can be expressed as shown
in Equation 1. 7 Neubers rule was
Torque (N-m) 2,711 3,173 3,173 3,173
Predicted initiation time (h) 11.09 2.38 employed to convert the elastically
Predicted propagation time 4.85 4.85 calculated stresses from the linear-
(cycles) elastic finite element (FE) model to true
Standard deviation 1.64 0.36 1.13 1.13
Predicted initiation time 2,738,786.40 587,764.80 1,197,190.00 1,197,190.00 stress and true strain values.6
(cycles) $E 4OTAL SaF
B
C
Estimated time to initiation (h) 15.00 2.50


%
 . F  EaF . F


(1)
Observed time to failure (h) 6.00 3.00 

PLASTIC
ELASTIC
Estimated time to initiation 3,704,400 617,400
(cycles) Equation 1 expresses the number
Observed time to failure 1,481,760 740,880 of reversals 2Nf (twice the number of
(cycles)
Difference (# St. Devs.) 2.38 0.33 1.02 1.64 cycles Nf ) to failure as a function of
Percentile 98.00 63.00 82.00 4.20 elastic and plastic strain amplitudes.
The strain-based approach integrated
with a rain-flow counting or similar
Table II. Results vs. Ground TruthTest 2 algorithm permits the treatment of
Mean Time Actual load-sequencing effects in predicting
Elapsed Feature Total Remaining Time component life. For example, in the case
Time Load (N-m) P (Initiation) P (Prop) Indication Pf Prediction Remaining of helicopter gears, different amounts
2h 3,173 0.146 0.004 None 0.0005 5.23 h 3.5 h of material damage will accumulate at
3h 3,173 0.95 0.42 None 0.39 4.23 h 2.5 h different load (torque) levels and will
3.5 h 3,173 1.0 0.05** Yes 0.05 3.1 h** 2h also depend on the sequence in which
5h 3,173 1.0 0.34*** Yes 0.34 0.3 h*** 0.5 h
the torques were varied (i.e., the torque
magnitudes as well as torque profiles
both affect the amount of material
data obtained from tests on uniaxial mechanics principles, the crack will damage).
specimens should not be directly used not propagate. On the contrary, if crack In the case of the EDM notch, the
because they are subjected to uniform initiation is defined as a large crack, plastic term (second right-hand term
strain across the entire test cross section. then the predicted cycles for crack in Equation 1) is the dominant term.
For notched components, there is a propagation could be rather small. Using the plastic term alone, the mean
severe stress gradient within the notch Concisely, the prediction of total fatigue number of cycles to EDM notch crack
region and, therefore, special attention life is greatly influenced by the definition initiation is given by Equation 2.
must be paid to this region by dividing of what constitutes a crack. 

it into sub-zones or ligaments and
calculating fatigue life for each zone
independently.5 This approach facilitates
the definition of crack initiation and
thereby provides an unambiguous way
to transition from the crack-initiation
phase to the crack-propagation phase. It
also circumvents an historical dilemma:
If crack initiation is defined as creation
of a defect (crack) of arbitrary length
(an engineering size crack has been
defined to have a length of 0.1 mm to 1
mm), then the associated stress intensity
range (K) from the Paris Law (see
Reference 6 and Equation 4) can be
made arbitrarily small or large. If
the assumed crack size at the end of
crack initiation is too small, then the
associated K at the crack tip will
be smaller than the Kthreshold for the
material (depends on the R ratio)
and, therefore, based on the fracture
CRACK INITIATION
Socie et al.5 demonstrated that a crack
initiates when the rate of propagation of
the crack due to the crack-propagation
mechanism (using principles of fracture
mechanics) exceeds that due to the
crack initiation or strain cycle fatigue
mechanism and is typically on the order
of 0.01270.0254 mm.
In the gear tooth, the EDM notch
acted as a stress riser leading to high
elastic stresses (2,579 MPa at 3,173
N-m across the IGB). This high stress
(at least in the immediate vicinity of
the notch) was in excess of the yield
strength (yield strength = 1,172 MPa)
of the material and therefore resulted
in local plastic cycling. The large
stress range (0374 0 ksi) and the
associated large plastic strain range
experienced by the gear tooth subjects
 $E  C
.F  0LASTIC (2)
  EaF
where f = number of cycles to crack
initiation; Plastic = plastic strain range;
f = fatigue ductility coefficient; and c
= fatigue ductility exponent.
Because strain-life data for AISI
9130 was not available, the following
data for a low-alloy steel with hardness
similar to the assumed core hardness
(38 RC/350 HB) of AISI 9130 was
used:8,9 ultimate tensile strength: 1,234
MPa; yield strength: 1,178 MPa; elastic
modulus: 192 GPa; cyclic strength
coefficient (K): 1,862 MPa; cyclic
strain hardening exponent (n): 0.14;
fatigue strength coefficient (f): 1,944
MPa; fatigue strength exponent (b):
0.1; fatigue ductility coefficient (f):
1.22; fatigue ductility exponent (c):
0.73.
Applying this data back to the sub-

32 JOM March 2004

 10
9 1,396,161 degrees-of-freedom at the
8
7 Inflection Pt.
Feature Magnitude
6
5
Test #1
4 Insp #1
Test #2
3 Insp #1
2 Residual Kurtosis Fit
1
0
0.15 0.2 0.25
Figure 9. Normalized crack length vs. feature magnitude.
zone concept, as one moves away from
the notch, the number of cycles to crack
initiation (using the strain-life analysis
procedure) at each of these sampled
points will increase due to reduced
stress/strain amplitude. For example,
using Figure 3 as a reference, if sampled
point 1 takes N1 cycles for crack
initiation and sampled point 2 takes
N2 cycles for crack initiation, and the
distance between the two points is
d, then the rate of crack propagation
(length increase/load cycle) over this
sub-zone due to initiation is d/(N2-N1).
If for a certain sub-zone defined by
points I and I + 1, the rate of propagation
using the fracture mechanics data (plots
of da/dN vs. K) is greater than that due
to the strain-cycle fatigue mechanism,
then the distance of this sub-zone from
the root of the notch is considered as the
length of crack initiation, ai. Note that
K will start at a value of 0.0 when the
crack length is zero and will increase
with the crack size. The value ai is taken
as the initial crack size for the fracture
mechanics study. Therefore, for a given
component, cycles to reach final crack
size af = [life in cycles at a distance
ai from the base of the notch based
on strain-cycle fatigue mechanism]
+ [cycles required to propagate a
crack from the crack size of ai to af
using fracture mechanics-based cycle
estimation].
CRACK PROPAGATION
The remaining unknown to establish
the failure mode transition point requires
a fracture mechanics analysis.
Fracture analysis consultants per-
2004 March JOM
Artificial
Test #2
Insp #2
Test #2
Insp #2
Residual Kurtosis Data
Residual Pk2Pk x5 Fit
Residual Pk2Pk x5 Data
0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65
Normalized Crack Length
formed a 3-D LEFM analysis of the
H-60 pinion gear. As subsequent figures
in this section will illustrate, the resulting
model was very accurate up until a
crack length of about 1.27 cm. Beyond
this length, significant load-sharing
factors were likely present that were
not modeled.
The initial FE model gear was meshed
with ten-noded tetrahedral elements
and had a total of 920,379 degrees of
freedom. The fracture mechanics model
had a total of 13 crack fronts (referred
to as steps) to simulate the evolution
of the 3-D crack front from the EDM
notch. Each of the 13 crack fronts was
subjected to a total of 18 load cases
simulating instantaneous pinion loads.
These corresponded to 18 discrete
angular positions during the load-unload
cycle for the pinion. As the crack
grew, more elements were required to
resolve the geometric details of the
Distribution on
Crack Initiation
Distribution on
Crack Propagation
No Vibration
Feature Indications
42%
Indications Present
Model Calibrated
crack surface, ultimately resulting in
12th step. The model was used to
determine stress-intensity factors and
crack propagation path where mode I
stress-intensity factors were primarily
responsible for the extent of crack
growth and the ratio between the mode
II and mode I stress-intensity factors was
primarily responsible for the direction
of crack growth.
The predicted crack surface and
fronts are shown in Figure 4 and Figure
5, along with the vector used in the
crack length calculation. These can
be compared to the observed fracture
surface shown in Figures 6 and 7.1
Qualitatively, the surfaces and fronts
are very similar, especially near the
heel end of the tooth. It should be noted
that the seeded fault at the toe was not
modeled because FE analysis showed
that the toe region was not as highly
loaded as the heel notch region and
propagation of the toe notch was not
expected to influence that of the heel
notch.
The crack propagation model was
applied to determine the cycles required
to propagate the crack from the ai length
discussed previously to the critical
crack length. During a crack growth
simulation, at each step of propagation
the direction and extent of crack growth
at each point along the crack front had
to be determined.
The best crack growth data for 9130
was used.9 The data consists of Paris
parameters for three different R ratios
in both lab air and 121C oil subjected
to predominately plane stress loading.
3h
Figure 10. A graphical rep-
resentation of prognostic
module updates.
95%
Time
MTTF = 4.23 h
Time
3.5 h
100%
Time
MTTF = 3.1 h
5%
Time
33
The R ratio in the seeded fault tests was
0.0. Both the analysis and the model
considered the material properties of
the AISI 9310 steel, case hardened to
a case hardness of Rc 6064 and core
hardness of Rc 3045 to have intrinsic
Paris parameters of:
n = 3.2C*
= 2.738e-19 (in/cycle)
/(psi*in0.5)n (3)
When these values are applied to the
Paris Law which states that cumulative
load cycles (N) to reach a certain crack
size (a) can be found using:
DA
 #
$+ EFF N
D. (4)
Known sources of error were cumu-
latively applied to this deterministic
model to create a probabilistic model
where input parameters are represented
as statistical variants. In all cases,
normal distributions were assumed.
The standard deviation () assumptions
for these probability density functions
are:
Load sharing factor: a reduction
M (5) and when fused feature crack length
in loading on the failing gear tooth
as the crack grows due to load
sharing on adjacent teeth. = 2%
of the stress intensity factor at ai
to 75% of the stress intensity factor
at af was used
Loading uncertainty: a variation
of the load definition that could
normally occur during use ( = 5%)
applied to the stress intensity
factor
Material properties: C ( = 8%)
and n ( = 0.8%)
Modeling uncertainty: (0% at
step 0 and 5% at step 12 applied
to Keff)
Ultimately, the plot in Figure 8 was
generated illustrating the crack length
for different loading levels vs. cycles
accumulated.
This analysis enabled determination
of the transition point between initiation
and propagation. The calculated da/dN
rate exceeded the subzone propagation
rate at approximate 0.0191 mm. This
distance was divided into six subzones
and the deterministic calculation of
crack initiation life was found to be
approximately 11 h at 2,711 N-m (recall
test #1 was believed to have initiated
crack at approximately 15 h).
34
DIAGNOSTIC INFORMATION
FUSION
Certain types of vibration features
have been found to detect small cracks
at early stages of crack propagation
when supplied with speed, torque,
and time-domain vibration data. Such
features provide valuable information
that, when used properly, can serve
to calibrate the model-based aspects
of the prognostic module and reduce
uncertainty levels. This means that
tighter confidence bounds can be
calculated for remaining component
life.
Test results shown in Reference 1
have indicated that residual kurtosis and
residual peak to peak (Pk2Pk) features
provided the earliest detection of a gear
tooth cracking. Kurtosis of the residual
time series is computed based on
the residual signal, which is defined
as the signal minus the gear mesh
frequency (and harmonics) and one
shaft modulated side lobe. 10

KURTOSIS 
X
.S 
The signal peak to peak is computed
using the residual signal normalized
and rectified.
Making use of these crack detection
features in the prognostic model cali-
bration requires that the following
functional mapping be created:
[anorm(Fi), (Fi)]
= f[mag(Fi), torque]
where:
A
A NORM  (7)
A CRITICAL
and a = crack length; acritical = critical
crack length (estimated to be about
12.7 mm); (F i) = uncertainty on
normalized crack length prediction
(standard deviation) for feature i; and
mag(Fi) = magnitude of feature i.
In other words, applying a fusion
method such as weighted averaging to
the magnitude of the vibration features
corrected for loading effects can be an
alternate means of estimating current
crack length. At the very least, an anorm
beyond a threshold value can be used
to confidently assess that a crack has
initiated to an engineering length.
The best estimates of the two vibration
features vs. normalized crack length
from the two tests are provided in Figure
9. Note that residual peak-to-peak was
multiplied by 5 for clarity and that both
features drop off after an anorm of about
0.3 (aactual of 0.381 cm), most likely due
to load-sharing effects.
Using the key assumption that the
vibratory feature response as the
failure progresses from the two tests
is representative of the response for
another test with identical conditions, the
potential exists to reduce the confidence
bounds on the failure prognosis.
The total probability of failure at any
given time is the combination of two
independent events: the initiation of a
crack and the propagation of that crack
to failure. For independent events, the
total probability is:
Ptotal = P(i) *P(p) (8)
where P(i) = probability of crack
initiation (to 0.0191 mm) and (p) =
probability of propagation to failure
(to 20.96 mm).
As already stated, P(p) is a function
of the model estimated crack length
estimates are available, the model
estimated crack length distribution
may theoretically be replaced with the
feature-based crack length distribution.
However, for a number of reasons, the
initiation probability was simply set to
1 when residual kurtosis exceeded 4 in
this study. Hence, a fundamental link
was formed between state awareness
(6)
and material capacity.
RESULTS
Table I is a consolidated results table
showing the time/cycle predictions of
the individual elements of the prognostic
model with respect to the estimated
time/cycles to crack initiation and
propagation from the two tests.
The second to last column in the table
is the difference between predicted and
actual in terms of standard deviations.
The last column is the percentile the
actual point falls on the predicted
distribution. In other words, this number
is the probability of either crack initiation
or propagation to failure the prognostic
model would have predicted at the actual
time/cycles. Clearly the prognostic
model distributions contain the ground
truth observations while still retaining
relatively tight confidence bounds.
JOM March 2004
 The scenarios shown in Table II show
how the overall prognostic model would
have functioned had it been running
live with raw torque and acceleration
data for test #2.
The point of interest occurs at an
elapsed time of 3 h, where the model
predicts a mean time to failure of 4.23 h
in the absence of any vibration feature
indications (threshold exceedences).
When these indications become avail-
able at 3.5 h (denoted by the **
and *** notations) and the gear had
3.1 h of life remaining, the feature
information was used to calibrate
the prognostic model by setting the
P(Initiation) to 1 and restarting the crack
propagation module. This is illustrated
graphically in Figure 10. Note that
the variance of the crack propagation
distribution was also reduced, thereby
improving the overall accuracy of the
prognostic model.
CONCLUSION
Using system-level observable fea-
tures to orient and update the models
responsible for tracking a components
material condition provides a sound
approach for improved awareness of
the current health state. The real-time
calibrated model is then also available to
predict future performance over a range
of potential loads and environmental
conditions. Deployment of calibrated
prognostic tools within a tactical
decision-aiding environment will pro-
vide intelligent asset management and
lead to improved readiness and mission
assurance.
The following conclusions could be
reached through this study:
Prognostic modeling efforts can
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Check out the
JOM Web Site,
which allows
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2004 March JOM
benefit from a larger population of
seeded-fault, run-to-failure tests
with highly controlled observation
of failure progression.
High-fidelity prognostic models
for helicopter gears that are capable
of predicting remaining life as a
function of speed and load are
achievable.
Health and usage monitoring
system features can be used to
effectively calibrate physics-of-
failure based prognostic models
and reduce their intrinsic uncertain-
ties.
Uncertainty in a variety of factors
ranging from gear geometry/
contact, gear loads to material
properties limit the ability of
prognostic systems to generate
reliable information. Within these
factors, material properties are
a core group that has a rather
dominant impact on life prediction.
Information such as the statistical
variation of fatigue and fracture
properties, as well as compressive
stresses, within the case-hardened
layer would be valuable in improv-
ing prognostic accuracy.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors thank Andrew Hess
of Naval Air Systems Command for
funding this effort as part of a Phase
I Small Business Innovation Research
program as well as William Hardman,
Leo Fila, and James Larsen (U.S.
Air Force) for data, informational
support, and feedback. Finally, the
authors acknowledge the significant
contributions of Paul Wawrzynek of
Fracture Analysis Consultants for
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References
1. W. Hartman and A. Hess, A USN Strategy for
Mechanical and Propulsion System Prognostics with
Demonstration Results (Paper presented at the AHS
Forum 58, Quebec, Canada, 1113 June 2002).
2. G. Kacprzynski et al., Calibration of Failure
Mechanism-Based Prognosis with Vibratory State
Awareness Applied to the H-60 Gearbox, Proceedings
of the 2003 IEEE Aerospace Conf., (Piscataway,
NJ: IEEE).
3. M. Roemer and G. Kacprzynski, Development of
Diagnostic and Prognostic Technologies for Aerospace
Health Management Applications, Proceedings of
the 2001 IEEE Aerospace Conf., (Piscataway, NJ:
IEEE).
4. Rachel E. Cohen, George Krauss, and David K.
Matlock, Bending Fatigue Performance of Carburized
4320 Steel, SAE Technical Paper Series #930963
(Warrendale, PA: SAE, 1993).
5. D. Socie, A Procedure for Estimating the Total Fatigue
Life of Notched and Cracked Members, Engineering
Fracture Mechanics, 11 (1) (1979), pp. 851859.
6. J.A. Bannantine, J.J. Comer, and J.L. Handrock,
Fundamentals of Metals Fatigue Analysis (Upper
Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1990).
7. David G. Lewicki, Gear Crack Propagation
Path StudiesGuidelines for Ultra-Safe Design,
NASA/TM2001-211073 (July 2001).
8. ASM Handbook Volume 19: Fatigue and Fracture
(Materials Park, OH: ASM International, 1996).
9. L.E. Spievak, P.A. Wawrzynek, and A.R. Ingraffea,
Simulating Fatigue Crack Growth in Spiral Bevel
Gears (M.S. Thesis, School of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, Cornell University, August 1999).
10. J. Ma, Energy Operator and Other Demodulation
Approaches to Gear Defect Detection, Proceedings of
the 49th Meeting of the Society for Machinery Failure
Prevention Technology, (Willowbrook, IL: Vibration
Institute Publishing, 1995), pp. 127140.
G.J. Kacprzynski, A. Sarlashkar, and M.J. Roemer
are with Impact Technologies LLC. A. Hess and
B. Hardman are with the Naval Surface Warfare
Center Aircraft Division.
For more information, contact G.J. Kacprzynski,
Impact Technologies LLC, 125 Tech Park Drive,
Rochester, New York 14623; (585) 424-1990; fax
(585) 424-1177; e-mail greg.kacprzynski@impact-
tek.com.
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