Preparation (Forecasting) of TAF, ROUTE and Local forecast

SURESH RAM, Sc-E, CAMD,

sureshram265@gmail.com

All aviation forecasts and warnings are used by airlines operator, airport
operators and pilots for flight planning, re-planning of flight and handling of airport activity
hence it is very important to give the correct forecast and warning to ensure safety,
regularity and efficiency of air navigation for aviation industry can be safely benefited.

Weather is generally associated with some synoptic system it develops with interaction of
local features. The local features has important role in development weather systems.
Developments of cloud and associated weather
When air is lifted it condensed and then ice particles and water droplets are formed.
I. When air lifted due to orography more St,Sc and less Ac cloud formed. And hence
these clouds are called orographic clouds, St on ground reduces visibility.
II. When lifting of air is due to convection then Cu and Cb clouds formed this is known
as convective clouds.
III. When lifting of air is due to mechanical turbulence then sheet type cloud(St)
formed. For example eddy formation is due to mechanical turbulence and hence in
this case only St cloud forms.
IV. When slow wide spread air is lifted due to low pressure system in this case mostly
As cloud formed but in some cases Ac may also formed.
V. When air is lifted due to front such cloud are known as frontal cloud. The cloud
associated with warm front is Ci, Cs, As, Ns and St, initially Ci appear then Cs As
Ns and finally St clouds appears as the warm front approaches to station. The cloud
associated with cold front is Cu and Cb and hence cold front is more violent than
warm front.
Cumulonimbus cloud (Cb)

Cb cloud can generate many different type of hazard at the same time and location. And
hence it can not be underestimated. Aviation hazards due to likely hood of Cb clouds are
severe turbulence, severe icing, Microburst, Squall, lightening, heavy rain, hailstorm etc.
Forecasters must always be aware of the various typical synoptic features that are likely to
generate thunderstorm activity.
Towering Cumulus/ Cumulus and AS/NS
These clouds give heavy downpour in monsoon season which reduces visibility
Considering the impact of the cloud causing the severe weather it is very important to

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 study the characteristic feature of clouds.

Monitoring of Wind, Cloud and Weather

Various type of observation

a. Synoptic observation- 3hourly

b. Current Weather observation, METAR-Half hourly observations.

c. Satellite observation- Half hourly.

d. Radar observation- 10minutes

Each one has certain limitation

The satellite imageries can not classify the cloud for example st & fog, Sc & CU etc. Only
CB can be detected because CB is equally bright in Vis & IR. Due to poor resolution it may
not helpful for Aerodrome forecast. The resolution of INSAT is 2 Km.

Radar can detect local wind, CU and CB cloud but St, Sc, Medium and high cloud can not
be detected.

Current weather observation (METAR) gives the observation over aerodrome itself. It is
representation of aerodrome only hence it has also limitation. Though it is very helpful for
monitoring wind, cloud and weather.

Prediction of Weather and associated met element:-

Forecasters should keep the following in mind whole issuing Aviation forecast (TAF
,Local/Area forecast etc) :

Be aware of operationally significant weather for the aerodrome.

Be aware of
orography of place and region,
climatology of aerodrome and also
climatology of synoptic systems.
Be aware of criteria of change group when issuing forecast, but do not
forecast to satisfy criteria.

All the aviation forecasts are very short range forecast. Different aviation forecast has
different lead time for issuing forecast. Eg One hour is the lead time for issuing TAF.
Aviation can be forecasted by following various Method.

a. Synoptic Method.

b. Climatological Method.

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c. Satellite Method

d. Radar Method

e. NWP Method

Forecasting by synoptic Method

a) The forecaster can see surface and upper air analysed chart, Inference, regional
forecast and find out low and high pressure area and associated synoptic system and then
emphasized on development of cloud and associated weather and its movement.
Example Westerly trough(N-S Trough) associated with WD,etc

Thermodynamical Method

Tephigram and fundamental parameters

The te phi gram indicates mean values of environment temperature, dew point and RH
over station at 0000UTC from surface to 200hPa level on day and previous day it can be
analysed. It also gives the atmospheric condition whether the atmosphere is stable or
unstable. The rise in environment temperature in lower troposphere levels accompanied
with rise in surface dew point (Increase in RH) and decrease in RH in middle levels
indicates occurrence of weather activity over station on that day.

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Thermodynamic Indices The mean thermodynamical indices like SI, LI, KI ,TTI and
SWEAT index over station can be utilised to predict the weather over station during
different month.The SI is the simplest measure of atmospheric stability. If SI is positive, so
the parcel going upward is colder than its new environment and so the atmosphere is
stable. The chance of convective activity increases when SI value decreases to zero or
below as the instability increases. For example Thermodynamical indices on day of
th
occurrence of thunderstorm with rain on 7 February, 2011 immediately followed by very
dense fog on 8thFebruary, 2011over IGI airport New Delhi.

Stability indeces 07.02.2011 08.02.2011

0000Z 1200Z 0000Z 1200Z
Showalter index(SI) -0.5 -3.2 5.8 10.9
Lifted index -0.1 -3.4 -0.2 2.1
K index 16.7 29.1 -17.9 -47.1
SWEAT index 341 312 63 40
Total totals index 52 55 43 16
Convective Available Potential
15 548 4.7 0
energy(CAPE)
Convective Inhibition Energy(CINE) -352 -40 -101 0
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Climatological Method

The climatological forecast along airport is available in IMD. It provides number of days of
pptn,squall,weather with total cloud amount & total number days with low clouds at 03UTC
and 12UTC. It does not give the position of weather and associated cloud and its diurnal
variation. Aerodrome summary is also available for major airports

Many studies for few aerodrome has been carried by many authors, those literature should
be available with duty officers for reference.

Satellite Method :- The duty officer can find out the cloud from Vis, IR and WV
imageries available at every half an hour along with satellite bulletin. These should be
compared with the forecast issued by RWFC/NWFC and DDGM(WF) Pune.

Radar Method (DWR):-

RADAR is very much helpful for issuing Aerodrome warning for different weather
phenomena. It can also be utilised for issuing local forecast and 9hour TAF if Radar
mosaic is available and It cannot be very much utilised for 30hours TAF.

NWP

The global (GFS) and regional (WRF) model is available both can be utilised for issuing of
TAFs. The model is providing total cloud and total accumulated rainfall. The duty officer
cans utilise, match/compare these forecast with other forecast and take decision.
Meteogram of all airports is also available on IMD website. ARPS model is very helpful for
issuing nowcasting (Aerodrome warning). wind and Temperature charts for Low Level
Flying is available as a special Products for Aviation Services.

GFSModel - The output of GFS model is available for 12hour interval at 00,12,24,36 etc. It
is available at 00and 12UTC. The duty officer issuing TAF at 20Z of validity 21-06Z should
consult model out put of 12Z.

WRF The output of WRF model is available 3hourly and 6hourly but presently it is being
run twice a day. Short Range (36 & 48 Hours) forecast.

Meteograms for 43 Airports(9km)+33 locations in DLH &NCR(3km) are available.

Available Products are Hourly Wind spd (10m), Rainfall,RH, Temperature(DB & DP)

ARPS model- 9 Km (Trigger every hour) Very short range (T+1 to T+9 hours) Products
Available -Winds at 850 hPa Reflectivity (T+20,40,60,80, ,100,120Minutes.)