Professional Documents
Culture Documents
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
CAPPs annual Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation
report provides a long-term outlook (2017 to 2030) for total
2017 Canadian crude oil production and western Canadian crude oil
supply, plus key information on markets both existing and
CRUDE OIL FORECAST, potential, and an updated synopsis of the transportation projects
MARKETS AND TRANSPORTATION that could connect projected supply to various markets.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) represents companies, large and small,
that explore for, develop and produce natural gas and crude oil throughout Canada. CAPPs member Canadas crude oil supply is forecast to grow by 5 per cent per year to 2020 then
companies produce about 80 per cent of Canadas natural gas and crude oil. CAPPs associate slow to 2 per cent growth per year to 2030, due to many market uncertainties.
members provide a wide range of services that support the upstream crude oil and natural gas industry. The success of Canadas energy future relies on the ability to overcome these
Together CAPPs members and associate members are an important part of a national industry with challenges, including low commodity prices, pipeline capacity, industry competitiveness,
revenues from oil and natural gas production of about $120 billion a year. regulatory uncertainty, and access to new markets.
Disclaimer:
This publication was prepared
by the Canadian Association
CALGARY ST.JOHNS of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). WESTERN CANADIAN CRUDE OIL SUPPLY IS GROWING BY 1.5 MILLION B/D
While it is believed that the
2100, 350 - 7 Avenue SW 1004, 235 Water Street information contained herein is
Calgary, Alberta, Canada St. Johns, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada reliable under conditions and
T2P 3N9 A1C 1B6 subject to the limitations set
out, CAPP does not guarantee
the accuracy or completeness
OTTAWA VICTORIA of the information. The use of
1.5
1000, 275 Slater Street 360B Harbour Road this report or any information
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada Victoria, British Columbia, Canada contained will be at the users
2016 2030
sole risk, regardless of any fault
K1P 5H9 V9A 3S1 or negligence of CAPP.
Material may be reproduced
for public non-commercial
use provided due diligence is
exercised in ensuring accuracy of
information reproduced; CAPP MILLION
is identified as the source; and
reproduction is not represented B/D
as an official version of the
CAPP.CA information reproduced nor has
2017-0009 any affiliation.
2017
Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
CAPPs annual Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation
report provides a long-term outlook (2017 to 2030) for total
2017 Canadian crude oil production and western Canadian crude oil
supply, plus key information on markets both existing and
CRUDE OIL FORECAST, potential, and an updated synopsis of the transportation projects
MARKETS AND TRANSPORTATION that could connect projected supply to various markets.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) represents companies, large and small,
that explore for, develop and produce natural gas and crude oil throughout Canada. CAPPs member Canadas crude oil supply is forecast to grow by 5 per cent per year to 2020 then
companies produce about 80 per cent of Canadas natural gas and crude oil. CAPPs associate slow to 2 per cent growth per year to 2030, due to many market uncertainties.
members provide a wide range of services that support the upstream crude oil and natural gas industry. The success of Canadas energy future relies on the ability to overcome these
Together CAPPs members and associate members are an important part of a national industry with challenges, including low commodity prices, pipeline capacity, industry competitiveness,
revenues from oil and natural gas production of about $120 billion a year. regulatory uncertainty, and access to new markets.
Disclaimer:
This publication was prepared
by the Canadian Association
CALGARY ST.JOHNS of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). WESTERN CANADIAN CRUDE OIL SUPPLY IS GROWING BY 1.5 MILLION B/D
While it is believed that the
2100, 350 - 7 Avenue SW 1004, 235 Water Street information contained herein is
Calgary, Alberta, Canada St. Johns, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada reliable under conditions and
T2P 3N9 A1C 1B6 subject to the limitations set
out, CAPP does not guarantee
the accuracy or completeness
OTTAWA VICTORIA of the information. The use of
1.5
1000, 275 Slater Street 360B Harbour Road this report or any information
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada Victoria, British Columbia, Canada contained will be at the users
2016 2030
sole risk, regardless of any fault
K1P 5H9 V9A 3S1 or negligence of CAPP.
Material may be reproduced
for public non-commercial
use provided due diligence is
exercised in ensuring accuracy of
information reproduced; CAPP MILLION
is identified as the source; and
reproduction is not represented B/D
as an official version of the
CAPP.CA information reproduced nor has
2017-0009 any affiliation.
3
Canadian and U.S. Crude Oil Pipelines and Refineries - 2017
ENBRIDGE NW
UPGRADERS
Syncrude (Fort McMurray)................. 465
Suncor (Fort McMurray) .................... 438
ADDITIONAL CAPACITY NEEDED PRICES AND INVESTMENT KEY COMPETITVENESS CHALLENGES FACING Shell (Scotford) ................................. 240
RAINBO
CNRL (Horizon) ................................. 210
39%
W
VANCOUVER TO: PRINCE GEORGE 2016 CANADIAN CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION
Japan - 4,300 miles Husky.............. 12 000 m3/d 000 b/d
Taiwan - 5,600 miles
Crude oil prices dropped from more S.Korea - 4,600 miles
China - 5,100 miles Key industry challenges are tempering long-term growth prospects.
EDMONTON
British Columbia
Alberta
10
457
61
3,066
FOR INFORMATION CONTACT: (403) 267-1141 / CAPP.CA
Imperial .........................191
Suncor...........................142 Saskatchewan 73 461
San Francisco - 800 miles Manitoba 6 40
EXISTING PIPELINE CAPACITY than US$100 per barrel in 2014, due
Los Angeles - 1,100 miles 1. UNCERTAINTY. Canadas policies and regulations
Shell ................................92
LLOYDMINSTER are becoming Northwest Territories 1 9
increasingly more stringent and costly, resulting in reduced
Husky asphalt plant .........29
Husky Upgrader...............82
Western Canada 578 3,637 NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR
attractiveness for investment. HU
SK
Y Eastern Canada 34 213
Silver Range (Come by Chance) .......... 115
2016 2030
to a global oversupply of oil. Prices Total Canada 612 3,850
VANCOUVER
Chevron........... 55
2. CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF GOVERNMENT REGINA
POLICY CHANGES.
SUPPLY OF WESTERN CANADIAN CRUDE OIL Developing resources responsibly to help achieve key Come by Chance
KEYSTONE
Complex ......................................135
have recovered somewhat since
WILL GROW 39 PER CENT BY 2030 TO regulatory, social and environmental outcomes,
PUGET SOUND MOOSE JAWis important and
BP (Cherry Pt) .............234 Moose Jaw asphalt plant ...............19 Hibernia White Rose
Phillips 66 (Ferndale) ...101 needs be done in a manner that does not unnecessarily burden Hebron
NA
early 2016 to almost US$50 per TrailStone (Tacoma) .......42
CA
S
PIPELINE TOLLS FOR LIGHT OIL (US$ PER BARREL)
3. GREAT
POTENTIAL DIVERGENT POLICIES FROM U.S. COMPETITORS.
WA
FALLS
Calumet ......................25 SAINT JOHN Edmonton to
U.S. producers may not have to face similar policies to those in Irving ...................300 Burnaby (Trans Mountain) 1.70
barrel in May 2017. CAPP estimates Canada. BILLINGS
Additionally,
CHS (Laurel) ................56 protectionist
MT policies that may be pursued MONTRAL/QUBEC Saint John Anacortes (Trans Mountain/Puget) 2.00
Suncor.................... 137 Sarnia (Enbridge) 4.40
OR by the current U.S. administration are also a cause for concern.
Phillips 66....................60
ExxonMobil ..................60
SUPERIOR
SARNIA Valero ..................... 230 Montral (Enbridge) 6.05
ID
KEYSTONE
Dickinson ND Calumet............45
Imperial ............... 119 ME Chicago (Enbridge) 4.00
2017 producer capital spending for
PADD IV Shell ...................... 73 Montral
KIANTONE
CA
PADD II CT RI
SALT LAKE CITY
USGC (Keystone/Gulf Coast Ext.) 7.15**-11.65
KANSAS
WESTERN CANADA HEAVY OIL SANDS NE
Big West ............. 35 SUPPLY provides 95
CHS (McPherson)....................................85 MI WARREN
PENNSYLVANIA
Chevron.............. 53 HollyFrontier (El Dorado) ......................135 IA United .......... 70 USEC to Montral (Portland/Montral) 1.40
per cent of thisDENVER/COMMERCE
HollyFrontier ....... 45 growth. CITY IL DETROIT
NJ Monroe Energy (Trainer)................ 195
SH
Coffeyville Res. (Coffeyville) ..................115
Marathon.......... 132 PA Phil. Energy Solutions (Phil.).......... 335
ELL
dramatic change to projects due Tesoro ................ 63
Suncor........................... 98 PO
NY St. James to Wood River (Capline/Capwood) 1.30
CHEVRON
EX
THE ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTHWHIN ITE WESTERN
PRE
SS CANADA SUPPLY Flanagan
IN Newell Philadelphia
UT CLI NEWELL, WV PIPELINE TOLLS FOR HEAVY OIL (US$ PER BARREL)
is projected to be 5 per MD
FFS
CO cent from 2017 to 2020, then slow to an Ergon............ 23
DE
NEW JERSEY
Hardisty to:
to continuing uncertainty in the KS OH Phillips 66 (Bayway)........ 241
average annual growth rate OKLAHOMA
of 2 per cent through 2030. WV VA PBF (Paulsboro) .............. 168 Chicago (Enbridge) 4.20
IL
OB
BAKERSFIELD Axeon SP (Paulsboro)........ 74
PACIF
Cushing (Enbridge) 5.35*-6.60
M
Phillips 66 (Ponca City) .........................203 D DELAWARE
N
Kern Oil ..................... 26 EA
XO
HollyFrontier (Tulsa) .............................125
EASTERN CANADA
San Joaquin............... 14 RH PBF (Delaware City) ........ 190 Cushing (Keystone) 6.20**-6.90
IC
is forecast to contribute up to 307,000 b/d OHIO
EX
Coffeyville Res. (Wynnewood) .................70 EA H
SP OUT
long term. NM but then decline steadily.
of production by 2024
Valero (Ardmore).....................................86 S
KY WOOD RIVER
BP-Husky (Toledo)........................160
PBF (Toledo).................................170
Wood River (Enbridge/Mustang/Capwood)
Wood River (Keystone)
6.05
5.15**-6.05
LOS ANGELES AZ MO WRB .................................314
ROBINSON
Marathon (Canton) .........................93
BORGER/MCKEE Husky (Lima)................................160 Wood River (Express/Platte) 5.35*
Alon USA .........................70 OK Marathon..........................231 Marathon (Catlettsburg) ...............273 USGC (Enbridge/Seaway) 6.95-11.10
Tesoro (Carson/Wilmington) ... 380 WRB ............................ 146
TN
MARKETS
S
OP
MT VERNON
Valero .......................... 195 SU
Chevron ................................ 291 GA USGC (Keystone/Gulf Coast Ext.) 7.80**-12.60
ETC
Diam Countrymark.......................28
Drilling by conventional crude oil PBF ...................................... 155
CENT
U RION ond PE NC
Phillips 66 ............................ 139
PADD III
MEMPHIS Notes 1) Assumed exchange rate = 0.?? US$ / 1C$ (May 2017 average)
CAPP forecasts an additional 1.5 million b/d of supplies coming from
PADD I
Valero .................................... 85 Valero ..................180
SEAWAY TWIN
2) Tolls rounded to nearest 5 cents
AR EL DORADO 3) Tolls in effect July 1, 2017
Western Canada by 2030. The combined regional opportunities in Delek.....................80
CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN THE OIL SANDS producers is expected to increase
Artesia Slaughter
TRAN
* 10-year committed toll
Canada, the U.S. and globally can reasonably
Big
Spring
be expected to absorb MISSISSIPPI SC **20-year committed toll
SCAN
First Open Season,15-year, 50,000+ b/d committed volumes
2014
Chevron (Pascagoula) ..................330
these incremental supplies.
NEW MEXICO/W. TEXAS Ergon (Vicksburg)...........................25
GA
ADA
HollyFrontier (Artesia) ...........................100 PE LOUISIANA
M R AL
by 70 per cent compared to 2016, Calumet (Shreveport) ........ 60
GULF
Alon (Big Spring). ....................................73 TYLER IA
Tesoro (Gallup)........................................25 Delek.....................75 BR
N
EX
PR EX ALABAMA
Crude Refining Capacities as at June 1, 2017
Crane XO
MS
COAS
Tesoro (El Paso)................................... .135 ID
GE
ES
S
LA
N MO Hunt (Tuscaloosa) ..........................40 MISSISSIPPI RIVER (thousand barrels per day)
$34
CRAN TE
THE COMBINED DEMAND GROWTH FROMTX
CHINA AND INDIA OFHO-HO
BIL
2017 X Shell (Saraland) .............................85
T
E ExxonMobil (Baton Rouge) ...........503
Petroleum Administration for
CA
St.
but would still be 40 per cent
PBF (Chalmette)...........................189
PADD
CT
James
10.1 MILLION B/D IS EQUAL TO MORE THAN 90 PER CENT Defense District
Marathon (Garyville).....................543
US
Port Arthur/ Lake
HOUSTON/TEXAS CITY Three
Rivers
Nederland/
Beaumont Charles FL Shell (Convent).............................235
Shell (Norco) ................................229
$15
THREE RIVERS PRSI (Pasadena) ........... 100
Marathon (Galveston).... 459 Valero (Norco) ..............................215 Major Existing Crude Oil Pipelines carrying
Valero ............................. 89
lower than in 2014. OF THE WORLD DEMAND INCREASE FROM 2015 TO 2040.
CORPUS CHRISTI Shell (Deer Park)........... 312 PORT ARTHUR/BEAUMONT
ExxonMobil ....................363
LAKE CHARLES
CITGO ............................. 425
Valero (Meraux)............................125
Phillips 66 (Belle Chasse).............247
Canadian crude oil
CITGO ........................... 157 SWEENY ExxonMobil ................... 561
BILLION
.578 Phillips 66....................... 249
Flint .............................. 300 Phillips 66..................... 247 LyondellBasell .............. 268 Alon (Krotz Springs) .......................74 Selected Other Crude Oil Pipelines
SOURCE: IEA World275
Valero ........................... Energy Outlook 2016, NewMarathon Policies Scenario
....................... 86 Valero ............................335 Calcasieu.......................... 75 Placid (Port Allen)...........................60
Total ..............................226
BILLION Valero (2) ................80+225
3
Canadian and U.S. Crude Oil Pipelines and Refineries - 2017
ENBRIDGE NW
UPGRADERS
Syncrude (Fort McMurray)................. 465
Suncor (Fort McMurray) .................... 438
ADDITIONAL CAPACITY NEEDED PRICES AND INVESTMENT KEY COMPETITVENESS CHALLENGES FACING Shell (Scotford) ................................. 240
RAINBO
CNRL (Horizon) ................................. 210
39%
W
VANCOUVER TO: PRINCE GEORGE 2016 CANADIAN CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION
Japan - 4,300 miles Husky.............. 12 000 m3/d 000 b/d
Taiwan - 5,600 miles
Crude oil prices dropped from more S.Korea - 4,600 miles
China - 5,100 miles Key industry challenges are tempering long-term growth prospects.
EDMONTON
British Columbia
Alberta
10
457
61
3,066
FOR INFORMATION CONTACT: (403) 267-1141 / CAPP.CA
Imperial .........................191
Suncor...........................142 Saskatchewan 73 461
San Francisco - 800 miles Manitoba 6 40
EXISTING PIPELINE CAPACITY than US$100 per barrel in 2014, due
Los Angeles - 1,100 miles 1. UNCERTAINTY. Canadas policies and regulations
Shell ............................. 100
LLOYDMINSTER are becoming
.
Northwest Territories 1 9
increasingly more stringent and costly, resulting in reduced
Husky asphalt plant .........29
Husky Upgrader...............82
Western Canada 578 3,637 NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR
attractiveness for investment. HU
SK
Y Eastern Canada 34 213
Silver Range (Come by Chance) .......... 115
2016 2030
to a global oversupply of oil. Prices Total Canada 612 3,850
VANCOUVER
Chevron........... 55
2. CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF GOVERNMENT REGINA
POLICY CHANGES.
SUPPLY OF WESTERN CANADIAN CRUDE OIL Developing resources responsibly to help achieve key regulatory, Come by Chance
KEYSTONE
Complex ......................................135
have recovered somewhat since
WILL GROW 39 PER CENT BY 2030 TO social and environmental outcomes, is important
PUGET SOUND MOOSE JAW and needs to be
BP (Cherry Pt) .............234 Moose Jaw asphalt plant ...............19 Hibernia White Rose
Phillips 66 (Ferndale) ...101 done in a manner that does not unnecessarily burden industry Hebron
NA
early 2016 to almost US$50 per TrailStone (Tacoma) .......42
CA
S
PIPELINE TOLLS FOR LIGHT OIL (US$ PER BARREL)
3. GREAT
POTENTIAL DIVERGENT POLICIES FROM U.S. COMPETITORS.
WA
FALLS
Calumet ......................25 SAINT JOHN Edmonton to
U.S. producers may not have to face similar policies to those in Irving ...................300 Burnaby (Trans Mountain) 2.00
barrel in May 2017. CAPP estimates Canada. BILLINGS
Additionally,
CHS (Laurel) ................56 protectionist
MT policies that may be pursued MONTRAL/QUBEC Saint John Anacortes (Trans Mountain/Puget) 2.30
Suncor.................... 137 Sarnia (Enbridge) 4.50
OR by the current U.S. administration are also a cause for concern.
Phillips 66....................60
ExxonMobil ..................60
SUPERIOR
SARNIA Valero ..................... 230 Montral (Enbridge) 6.10
ID
KEYSTONE
Dickinson ND Calumet............45
Imperial ............... 119 ME Chicago (Enbridge) 4.10
2017 producer capital spending for
PADD IV Shell ...................... 73 Montral
KIANTONE
CA
PADD II CT RI
SALT LAKE CITY
USGC (Keystone/Gulf Coast Ext.) 7.15 -11.55
KANSAS
WESTERN CANADA HEAVY OIL SANDS SUPPLY
Big West ............. 35 NE CHS (McPherson)....................................85
provides 95 MI WARREN
PENNSYLVANIA
Chevron.............. 53 HollyFrontier (El Dorado) ......................135 IA United .......... 70 USEC to Montral (Portland/Montral) 0.50
per cent of this DENVER/COMMERCE
HollyFrontier ....... 45 growth. CITY IL DETROIT
NJ Monroe Energy (Trainer)................ 195
SH
Coffeyville Res. (Coffeyville) ..................115
dramatic change to projects due
Marathon.......... 132 PA Phil. Energy Solutions (Phil.).......... 335
ELL
Tesoro ................ 63 PO
Suncor........................... 98 NY St. James to Wood River (Capline/Capwood) 1.30
CHEVRON
EX
THE ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTHWHIN ITE WESTERN
PRE
SS CANADA SUPPLY Flanagan
IN Newell Philadelphia
UT CLI NEWELL, WV PIPELINE TOLLS FOR HEAVY OIL (US$ PER BARREL)
is projected to be 5 per MD
FFS
CO cent from 2017 to 2020, then slow to an Ergon............ 23
DE
NEW JERSEY
Hardisty to:
to continuing uncertainty in the KS OH Phillips 66 (Bayway)........ 241
average annual growth rate OKLAHOMA
of 2 per cent through 2030. WV VA PBF (Paulsboro) .............. 168 Chicago (Enbridge) 4.30
IL
OB
BAKERSFIELD Axeon SP (Paulsboro)........ 74
PACIF
Cushing (Enbridge) 5.45*-6.70
NM
Kern Oil ..................... 26 Phillips 66 (Ponca City) .........................203 D DELAWARE
EA
XO
HollyFrontier (Tulsa) .............................125
EASTERN CANADA
San Joaquin............... 14 RH PBF (Delaware City) ........ 190 Cushing (Keystone) 6.10**-6.85
IC
is forecast to contribute up to 307,000 b/d OHIO
EX
Coffeyville Res. (Wynnewood) .................70 EA H
SP OUT
long term. NM but then decline steadily.
of production by 2024
Valero (Ardmore).....................................86 S
KY WOOD RIVER
BP-Husky (Toledo)........................160
PBF (Toledo).................................170
Wood River (Enbridge/Mustang/Capwood)
Wood River (Keystone)
5.85
5.05**-6.00
LOS ANGELES AZ MO WRB .................................314
ROBINSON
Marathon (Canton) .........................93
BORGER/MCKEE Husky (Lima)................................160 Wood River (Express/Platte) 5.50*
Alon USA .........................70 OK Marathon..........................231 Marathon (Catlettsburg) ...............273 USGC (Enbridge/Seaway) 7.00 - 9.05
Tesoro (Carson/Wilmington) ... 380 WRB ............................ 146
TN
MARKETS
S
OP
MT VERNON
Valero .......................... 195 SU
Chevron ................................ 291 GA USGC (Keystone/Gulf Coast Ext.) 7.80 - 12.55
ETC
Diam Countrymark.......................28
Drilling by conventional crude oil PBF ...................................... 155
CENT
U RION ond PE NC
Phillips 66 ............................ 139
PADD III
MEMPHIS Notes 1) Assumed exchange rate = 0.73 US$ / 1C$ (May 2017 average)
CAPP forecasts an additional 1.5 million b/d of supplies coming from
PADD I
Valero .................................... 85 Valero ..................180
SEAWAY TWIN
2) Tolls rounded to nearest 5 cents
AR EL DORADO 3) Tolls in effect July 1, 2017
Western Canada by 2030. The combined regional opportunities in Delek.....................80
CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN THE OIL SANDS producers is expected to increase
Artesia Slaughter
TRAN
* 10-year committed toll
Canada, the U.S. and globally can reasonably
Big
Spring
be expected to absorb MISSISSIPPI SC **20-year committed toll
SCAN
First Open Season,15-year, 50,000+ b/d committed volumes
2014
Chevron (Pascagoula) ..................330
these incremental supplies. International Joint Tariff
NEW MEXICO/W. TEXAS Ergon (Vicksburg)...........................25
GA
ADA
HollyFrontier (Artesia) ...........................100 PE LOUISIANA
M R AL
by 70 per cent compared to 2016, Calumet (Shreveport) ........ 60
GULF
Alon (Big Spring). ....................................73 TYLER IA
Tesoro (Gallup)........................................25 Delek.....................75 BR
N
EX
PR EX ALABAMA
Crude Refining Capacities as at June 1, 2017
Crane XO
MS
COAS
Tesoro (El Paso)................................... .135 ID
GE
ES
S
LA
N MO Hunt (Tuscaloosa) ..........................40 MISSISSIPPI RIVER (thousand barrels per day)
$34
CRAN TE
THE COMBINED DEMAND GROWTH FROMTX
CHINA AND INDIA OFHO-HO
BIL
2017 X Shell (Saraland) .............................85
T
E ExxonMobil (Baton Rouge) ...........503
Petroleum Administration for
CA
St.
but would still be 40 per cent
PBF (Chalmette)...........................189
James PADD
CT
10.1 MILLION B/D IS EQUAL TO MORE THAN 90 PER CENT Defense District
Marathon (Garyville).....................543
US
Port Arthur/ Lake
HOUSTON/TEXAS CITY Three
Rivers
Nederland/
Beaumont Charles FL Shell (Convent).............................235
Shell (Norco) ................................229
$15
THREE RIVERS PRSI (Pasadena) ........... 100
Marathon (Galveston).... 459 Valero (Norco) ..............................215 Major Existing Crude Oil Pipelines carrying
Valero ............................. 89
lower than in 2014. OF THE WORLD DEMAND INCREASE FROM 2015 TO 2040.
CORPUS CHRISTI Shell (Deer Park)........... 312 PORT ARTHUR/BEAUMONT
ExxonMobil ....................363
LAKE CHARLES
CITGO ............................. 425
Valero (Meraux)............................125
Phillips 66 (Belle Chasse).............247
Canadian crude oil
CITGO ........................... 157 SWEENY ExxonMobil ................... 561
BILLION
.578 Phillips 66....................... 249
Flint .............................. 300 Phillips 66..................... 247 LyondellBasell .............. 268 Alon (Krotz Springs) .......................74 Selected Other Crude Oil Pipelines
SOURCE: IEA World275
Valero ........................... Energy Outlook 2016, NewMarathon Policies Scenario
....................... 86 Valero ............................335 Calcasieu.......................... 75 Placid (Port Allen)...........................60
Total ..............................226
BILLION Valero (2) ................80+225
THE U.S. GULF COAST HAS AN ESTIMATED HEAVY OIL
Pipeline Proposals
TRANSCANADA
ENERGY EAST
ADDITIONAL CAPACITY:
Edmonton 1,100,000 b/d
Hardisty
Vancouver
POTENTIAL MARKETS:
Eastern Canada, U.S. East Coast,
Europe, Africa and Asia
ENBRIDGE
STATUS:
LINE 3 REPLACEMENT
Winnipeg
NEB hearing pending. ADDITIONAL CAPACITY:
Lvis
370,000 b/d
TRANS Baker Saint John
POTENTIAL MARKETS:
MOUNTAIN Superior
Montral
Central and Eastern Canada,
EXPANSION PROJECT U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast
ADDITIONAL CAPACITY: STATUS:
Approved November 29, 2016
590,000 b/d with 89 conditions by the
POTENTIAL MARKETS: federal government.
Asia and California Steele City
TRANSCANADA
STATUS:
Approved November 29, 2016
Patoka KEYSTONE XL
with 157 conditions by the ADDITIONAL CAPACITY:
federal government. Cushing
830,000 b/d
POTENTIAL MARKETS:
Heavy oil refineries along Gulf Coast
Trans Mountain Expansion Project
STATUS:
Existing Pipeline Infrastructure to Gulf Coast U.S. Presidential permit received
Port Arthur TransCanada Keystone XL on March 24, 2017.
TransCanada Energy East
Enbridge Line 3 Replacement
TRANSPORTATION
Connecting Western Canadas growing crude oil supplies to global markets is a priority.
The existing pipeline network originating in Western Canada can TRANSPORT 4.0 MILLION B/D.
By 2030, the annual supply of WESTERN CANADIAN OIL IS FORECAST TO BE 5.4 MILLION B/D, AN INCREASE
OF 1.5 MILLION B/D FROM TODAY.
NEW PIPELINE INFRASTRUCTURE WILL BE NEEDED to move this growing volume of Canadian oil to Canadians
and markets abroad.
4 TRANSPORTATION 23
4.1 Crude Oil Pipelines Exiting Western Canada 24
4.2 Oil Pipelines to the U.S. Midwest 28
4.3 Oil Pipelines to the U.S. Gulf Coast 30
4.4 Oil Pipelines to the West Coast of Canada 33
4.5 Oil Pipelines to Eastern Canada 33
4.6 Diluent Pipelines 36
4.7 Crude Oil by Rail 37
4.8 Transportation Summary 38
GLOSSARY 39
APPENDIX A.1: CAPP Canadian Crude Oil Production Forecast 2017 2030 41
APPENDIX A.2: CAPP Western Canadian Crude Oil Supply Forecast 2017 2030 43
APPENDIX B: Acronyms, Abbreviations, Units and Conversion Factors 44
APPENDIX C: Map of Canadian and U.S. Crude Oil Pipelines and Refineries 45
FIGURES
Figure1.1 World Total Primary Energy Demand, 2014 1
Figure1.2 Capital Investment in Oil Sands 2
Figure4.1 Existing and Proposed Canadian & U.S. Crude Oil Pipelines 23
Figure4.2 Canadian Fuel Oil and Crude Petroleum Moved by Rail: Car Loadings & Tonnage 37
Figure4.4 Existing Takeaway Capacity from Western Canada vs. Supply Forecast 38
TABLES
Table2.1 Canadian Crude Oil Production 4
Table2.2 Atlantic Canada Projects and Recent Discoveries 5
Table2.3 Western Canada Crude Oil Production 6
Table2.4 Oil Sands Production 8
Table2.5 Western Canada Crude Oil Supply 11
The 2017 edition of this publication has been FIGURE 1.1 WORLD TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND, 2014
produced as challenges to industry competitiveness
continue to arise and temper growth prospects for Other Renewables
oil sands development in the long term. In addition 1%
to continuing low prices, Canadian producers will Hydro
need to contend with carbon pricing and cumulative 2% Bioenergy
Nuclear
impacts from other federal and provincial climate 5% 10%
change policies, which their competitors in the U.S. Coal
may not be facing. Protectionist policies that may be 29%
pursued by the current U.S. administration are also a
cause for concern.
Natural Gas
21%
Oil
31%
Eastern Canada
3
Oil Sands
Conventional Heavy
1
Conventional Light
Pentanes/Condensate
0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
2017
150
100
Hibernia
50
0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
1.2
1.0 Alberta
0.8
Saskatchewan
0.6
Manitoba
0.4
0.0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
2017
TABLE2.4 OIL SANDS PRODUCTION CAPPs latest oil sands forecast grows from
2.4millionb/d to 3.7millionb/d (Figure2.5). Mining
millionb/d 2016 2020 2025 2030 production grows from 1.0millionb/d in 2016 to
Mining 1.03 1.41 1.43 1.51 reach 1.5millionb/d in 2030. Insitu development
is the primary driver of growth, expanding from
Insitu 1.37 1.71 1.92 2.16
1.4millionb/d currently and reaching 2.2millionb/d
Total* 2.40 3.12 3.35 3.67 by the end of the outlook. All oil sands projects
*Total may not add up due to rounding. will need to pay out in the longer term in order to
attract investment but insitu projects require less
The oil sands resources are situated almost entirely in upfront capital than mining projects and incremental
Alberta and are delineated by three deposits. These production can be added in smaller phases. Although
regions, referred to as the Athabasca, Cold Lake and 2016 production was impacted by the Fort McMurray
Peace River deposits are shown in Figure2.4. The forest fires there was no fundamental infrastructure
AER estimated at year-end 2016 there are 165 billion damage, so 2017 production is set to rebound sharply.
barrels of established reserves, of which 32 billion Generally, the forecast has a higher rate of growth up
barrels, or 19percent is considered recoverable by to 2020 than in the latter years, which is supported
mining and 133 billion barrels or 81percent can be by projects that have recently been completed or are
recovered using insitu techniques. already under construction.
5
June 2016 Forecast
4
3
In Situ
2
1 Mining
0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
2017
There is slower growth anticipated further out in the Since Nexen idled the upgrader at its Long Lake
forecast due to: longer term price uncertainty; the project in July 2016, there are currently no insitu
impact of burgeoning U.S. shale supplies on the global projects with integrated upgrader facilities. Some
market; and the impact of federal and provincial insitu volumes from Suncors Firebag and MacKay
climate change policies on relative competitiveness. River projects can be upgraded at the Suncor
Canadian producers are also wary of protectionist upgrader affiliated with its Millennium mine project
policies that may emanate from the U.S. but in general, the smaller size of insitu projects are
not economically conducive for the joint location of a
Upgrading full upgrader.
The production volumes from oil sands projects are The following is a list of the existing integrated mining
shown by combining raw bitumen production and and upgrading projects:
upgraded crude production from integrated projects.
By volume, there is generally a yield loss associated Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP) which
with the upgrading process that converts mined includes Muskeg River Mines and Jackpine
bitumen into upgraded crude oil. The yield losses Mine.
associated with upgrading volumes from oil sands
projects without associated upgraders is incorporated Canadian Natural Horizon Project.
in the calculation of the supply volumes discussed
Suncor Steepbank and Millennium Mine.
in the following section. Refer to Appendix A.1 for
detailed production data. Syncrude Mildred Lake Mine and Aurora Mine.
The Alberta government enacted new climate change Both conventional heavy crude oil and oil sands
regulations including a carbon tax that is applied bitumen that is not upgraded must be diluted by
across all sectors starting January 1, 2017. Natural gas blending with a lighter hydrocarbon to enable flow
produced and consumed on site by conventional oil through a pipeline.
and gas producers will be exempt from the carbon
levy until January 1, 2023. The oil sands will be subject Pentanes & condensates are the main source of
to a legislated emissions limit of 100 megatonnes (Mt) diluent, and when used, result in a heavy crude oil
per year under the Oil Sands Emissions Limit Act. mixture known as DilBit. Imports of condensate
compensate for the shortfall between demand for
In February 2017, Environment and Climate Change use in blending and domestic supply. Other bitumen
Canada (ECCC) published a discussion paper on volumes are diluted with upgraded light crude oil,
a clean fuel standard aimed at trimming annual resulting in a heavy crude oil known as SynBit.
emissions of carbon dioxide by 30 Mt by 2030 over Blending for DilBit requires approximately a 70:30
and above cuts that would be achieved through bitumen to condensate ratio while the blending ratio
existing programs. The standard would apply of SynBit is approximately 50:50. Raw bitumen and
to a broad range of fuels and cover emissions RailBit, which has a reduced diluent requirement,
by industries, homes, and buildings as well as can be transported by rail. CAPPs forecast includes
transportation. relatively small volumes of RailBit or raw bitumen
being transported under the assumption that
pipelines are being built. In the absence of new
pipelines however, the increased supply would once
again look to rail to reach markets.
Upgraded Light
1
Conventional Heavy
Conventional Light
0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
2017
* Oil Sands Heavy includes some volumes of upgraded heavy sour crude oil and bitumen blended with diluent or ugpraded crude oil.
In 2016, roughly 440,000b/d in total of imported TABLE2.5 WESTERN CANADA CRUDE OIL SUPPLY
condensates, upgraded crude oil, as well as quantities
of butane were needed to supplement the condensate millionb/d 2016 2020 2025 2030
supply originating from natural gas wells in Western Light 1.25 1.32 1.32 1.40
Canada. CAPPs forecast is not constrained by the Heavy 2.66 3.36 3.65 4.05
availability of condensate imports as new sources
Total Supply* 3.91 4.68 4.97 5.45
of condensate are assumed to be made available to
*Total may not add up due to rounding.
meet market requirements. New technology such as
partial upgrading can also serve to reduce diluent
requirements.
Other
Western
Canada 5
QC+ Atlantic Canada
AB, BC, SK [704]
[553]
ON
[330]
PADD V Other
[2,349] Atlantic
PADD IV Canada 36
[598]
Axeon Specialty Savannah, GA 9* Operating since Jan Crude oil that is shipped by rail to
Partners (refinery) *16 tank cars per day of 2014 Savannah could move to Paulsboro via
heavy crude; expandable backhauls on waterborne vessels.
up to 32)
Westville EaglePoint (near 44* Operating since Jan Can unload 66 cars/day using 22 offload
Paulsboro), NJ *66 cars / day 2012 spots or a unit train every 2 days.
Axeon Specialty Paulsboro, NJ small volumes Operating since 2014 Unit train capability is being contemplated.
Partners (refinery) Unit train capable
Buckeye Partners, Perth Amboy, NJ 60-80 Operating since Light crude; possibly handle heavy in the
L.P. 104-car unit train/day Q3 2014 future.
Buckeye Partners, Albany, NY n/a Operating since Nov Multi-year agreement with Irving refinery.
L.P. 2012; converted to
product service Q4 2016
Global Partners Albany, NY 160 Operating since 2011 Light crude oil receipts; seeking permit for
(estimated to be facility to heat crude oil. Phillips 66 has a 5
operating at 100) year contract for 50,000b/d.
Eddystone Rail Philadelphia, PA 80* Operating since April A crude-by-rail-to-barge facility. First train
Company (Enbridge *one 118-car unit train; 2014 received on May 3, 2014. Exclusive long-
JV) expandable to 2 unit term contract with Bridger Logistics for
trains (160,000+ b/d) existing capacity. Transport Bakken crude.
Philadelphia Energy Philadelphia, PA 280 Operating since Oct A crude-by-rail-to-barge facility. Terminal
Solutions (refinery) 2013; expanded Oct started operation on October 23, 2013 and
four 104-car unit trains/ 2014 was expanded from 2 unit trains to 4 on
day October 28, 2014.
Plains All American Yorktown, VA 60 Operating since Dec First 98-car unit train received on
Pipeline (PAAP) 2013 December 30, 2013. Up to 800 trains per
year can be unloaded with up to 104 rail
cars per train.
PADD I Total Existing Capacity 863,000 b/d
Estimated
Current Capacity Scheduled Cost
Operator Location (thousandb/d) In-Service (US$ million) Description
BP/Husky Toledo, OH 160 Completed Jul Feedstock optimization project. The refinery is now able
2016 to process approximately 65,000 b/d of heavy crude oil
from the Sunrise oil sands project.
Husky Lima, OH 160 2019 300 Modifications to coker and other processing units to
(originally increase ability to process heavy crude oil by up to
2017) 40,000b/d.
CHS McPherson, 100 Completed 555 Expanded capacity to 100,000b/d from 85,000b/d and
KS Feb 2016 increased heavy crude oil processing capacity to 50%
with installation of new delayed coker.
Heavy
( 206 )
U.S. Domestic
Heavy ( 330 )
( 2,189 )
FIGURE4.1 EXISTING AND PROPOSED CANADIAN & U.S. CRUDE OIL PIPELINES
Kitimat
Trans
Mountain
Edmonton
Hardisty
Burnaby Alberta Clipper Expansion
Rangeland
iver
Bakken Expansion
Kinder Morgan TransCanada Energy East
TM Expansion Cromer
ortla
Line 5 nd-
TransCanada
n
Mon
eso
Da
tra
Keystone XL l
ko
ta
St.
ta
Portland
Westover
Ac
Paul
ce
Enbridge
ss
Platte
Pony
Warren
Exp
res
Flanagan Chicago Spearhead North
Wh s
ite C + Spearhead North Twin
liffs Lima
TransCanada Keystone BP
Mustang
S. Access Extension
Spearhead South Wood Patoka
River Canadian and U.S. Oil Pipelines
ey
Flanagan South
all
dV
Cushing Ozark
Enbridge Pipelines and connections
Mi
line
Diamo
n d
Cap
rion us
to the U.S. Midwest
Centu sin ga
s Memphis
OP
36 150
30 170
Enbridge Operating since 1997 24 1,265 280 216 225
Express
TransCanada 4,700 591 524 561
Keystone
Operating since 2010 P1: 36 (converted) 864
30 3.6 x 2 (new)
24 193 (reactivated)
TransCanada Keystone XL 36 1,897 2020+ +830
TransCanada Energy East 42 4,516 2021+ +1,100
Jul 1 Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (MPUC) deems application complete; starts regulatory process.
Jul 20 Application to Minnesota Dept. of Commerce filed.
AB
ENBRIDGE LINE 3 REPLACEMENT (L3RP)
Hardisty SK
MB
COST: US$7.5 Billion (2016 estimate) Regina
4.2.3 ENBRIDGE MAINLINE MARKET EXTENSIONS The MPL system is comprised of four pipelines that
together can transport about 465,000b/d. The first
The Enbridge Mainline has a number of pipeline pipeline in the MPL system was built in 1954; the
segments that connect to Chicago and Patoka second was built in the 1970s; the third in the 1980s;
in Illinois and Cushing, Oklahoma. These include: and the last pipeline MPL Line4, formerly known
Spearhead North, Spearhead North Twin, Spearhead as MinnCan, was constructed in 2008. MPL Line4
South, Flanagan South, Southern Access Extension can currently transport about 165,000b/d. The
and Mustang (Table4.4). Together, these pipelines Minnesota Pipe Line Company has proposed a project
have almost 2.0millionb/d of capacity but would to increase capacity of the pipeline by 185,000b/d
require expansion to the Mainline system upstream or to reach 350,000b/d through the addition of six
more rail transportation if there was sufficient market pump stations and upgrading two existing stations.
demand that required all these downstream segments At an estimated cost of $125million this project is
to be fully utilized. intended to give MPL the flexibility to shift volumes to
its newest pipeline in the event of an outage on other
4.2.4 MINNESOTA PIPELINE SYSTEM segments of the pipeline system. The construction is
targeted for completion in the fourth quarter of 2017.
The Minnesota Pipe Line (MPL) system transports
crude oil originating from Western Canada and North
Dakota through pipeline connections at Clearbrook,
Minnesota and is the primary supply link for
Minnesotas two refineries located in Pine Bend and
St. Paul. The MPL system is owned by Minnesota Pipe
Line Company, LLC and is operated by Koch Pipeline
Company.
TRANSCANADA KEYSTONE XL
DIAMETER: 36 inches
AB
Hardisty
Keystone Pipeline: Hardisty to
SK Steele City, Wood River & Patoka
MB
Gulf Coast Project: Cushing to
Nederland/Houston
SD
NB
Steele City
IL
MI
KS Patoka
Wood River
Cushing
OK
TX
Nederland
Houston
4.4 OIL PIPELINES TO THE WEST COAST OF CANADA 4.5.1 ENBRIDGE LINE9
The Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline is The Line9 pipeline extends the Enbridge Mainline
currently the only pipeline transporting crude oil system from Sarnia, Ontario to Montral, Qubec.
from Alberta to the West Coast. There is significant This pipeline was recently reversed allowing western
interest in building new pipeline capacity to the West Canadian producers to serve more eastern markets. In
Coast where it can be offloaded for marine transport August, 2013, the portion from Sarnia, Ontario to North
to reach a variety of markets including California, the Westover, Ontario started flowing east with an initial
U.S. Gulf Coast and Asia (Table 4.6). capacity of 152,000b/d. The second portion from
North Westover, Ontario to Montral, Qubec started
4.4.1 ENBRIDGE NORTHERN GATEWAY flowing oil in December 2015. The fully operating
pipeline currently has a capacity of 300,000b/d.
Northern Gateway was a proposed pipeline project
with an initial capacity of 525,000b/d that would
4.5.2 TRANSCANADA ENERGY EAST
have extended from Bruderheim, Alberta to Kitimat,
BC. In June 2014, the project was approved by the TransCanada Energy East is a proposed pipeline
Governor in Council subject to 209 conditions. In system that could provide western Canadian crude oil
July 2016, the Federal Court of Appeal overturned access to markets in Eastern Canada, U.S. East Coast,
the approval of the project with the finding that U.S. Gulf Coast and other international destinations
the government had failed in its duty to adequately via a marine terminal in New Brunswick. About
consult with Aboriginal groups. On November 29, 995,000b/d is underpinned by firm contracts for an
2016, the federal government officially rejected the average term of 19 years (see page 35).
project and directed the National Energy Board (NEB)
to dismiss the application for the project.
AB
COST: C$7.4 Billion (March 2017 estimate)
Hargreaves Hinton Line 2 (540,000 b/d: Heavy Crude)
CAPACITY: 890,000 b/d Edson
(350,000 b/d existing + 540,000 b/d additional) Darfield
Edmonton
Black Pines Jasper
LENGTH: 1,183 kilometres Kamloops
Burnaby Line 1 (350,000 b/d: Light Crude + RPP)
(987 new + 193 reactivated + 2 x 3.6 km) Hope
Ferndale Abbotsford
DIAMETER: 36 inches Anacortes
ON
Moosomin QC
COST: C$19.3 Billion (May 2016 estimate) Cacouna
Lvis NB Saint John
CAPACITY: 1.1 Million b/d
Trois Rivires
LENGTH: 4,521 kilometres Montral
(1,427 new + 92 new laterals + 3,002 converted)
DIAMETER: 42 inches
FIGURE4.4 EXISTING TAKEAWAY CAPACITY FROM WESTERN CANADA VS. SUPPLY FORECAST
million barrels per day
6.0
2017 Western Canadian supply
5.0
4.0
2.0
Keystone
Express
1.0
Trans Mountain
Rangeland & Milk River
Notes:
1) Enbridge capacity adjusted by operational downtime and capacity for RPP and U.S. Bakken crude oil.
2) Keystone: adjustment to 95% of nameplate capacity for maintenance downtime.
3) Express: contract capacity only due to downstream Platte pipeline constraints.
4) Trans Mountain: RPP capacity requirements subtracted from nameplate capacity.
5) Rangeland & Milk River: throughput estimated @ 107,000 b/d, which is the maximum realized annual crude oil throughput since 2010.
6) Western Canadian refineries: Refinery intake in Alberta and Saskatchewan; excludes BC (85% of 616,000 b/d capacity).
API Gravity A specific gravity scale developed by the American Petroleum Institute (API) for
measuring the relative density or viscosity of various petroleum liquids.
Barrel A standard oil barrel is approximately equal to 35 Imperial gallons (42 U.S. gallons) or
approximately 159 litres.
Bitumen A heavy, viscous oil that must be processed extensively to convert it into a crude oil
before it can be used by refineries to produce gasoline and other petroleum products.
Coker The processing unit in which bitumen is cracked into lighter fractions and withdrawn to
start the conversion of bitumen into upgraded crude oil.
Condensate A mixture of mainly pentanes and heavier hydrocarbons. U.S. condensate is divided into
two broad categories. The first is lease condensate produced at or near the wellhead
(either natural gas or crude oil). The second category is plant condensate, also known
as NGLs, natural gasoline, pentanes plus or C5+, that remain suspended in natural gas at
the wellhead and is removed at a gas processing plant. For purposes of this report, both
categories are included in the term condensate. Both categories of condensate are
substantially similar in composition but the U.S. EIA arbitrarily defines lease condensate
as crude oil and plant condensate as an NGL (pentanes plus). Furthermore, Department
of Commerce - Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) regulations also define lease
condensate as crude oil.
Crude oil (conventional) A mixture of pentanes and heavier hydrocarbons that is recovered or is recoverable at a
well from an underground reservoir. It is liquid at the conditions under which its volumes
is measured or estimated and includes all other hydrocarbon mixtures so recovered or
recoverable except raw gas, condensate, or bitumen.
Crude oil (heavy) Crude oil is deemed, in this report, to be heavy crude oil if it has an API of 27 or less.
No differentiation is made between sweet and sour crude oil that falls in the heavy
category because heavy crude oil is generally sour.
Crude oil (medium) Crude oil is deemed, in this report, to be medium crude oil if it has an API greater than
27 but less than 30. No differentiation is made between sweet and sour crude oil that
falls in the medium category because medium crude oil is generally sour.
Crude oil (synthetic) A mixture of hydrocarbons, similar to crude oil, derived by upgrading bitumen from the
oil sands.
DilBit Bitumen that has been reduced in viscosity through addition of a diluent (or solvent)
such as condensate or naphtha.
Diluent Lighter viscosity petroleum products that are used to dilute bitumen for transportation
in pipelines.
Extraction A process unique to the oil sands industry, in which bitumen is separated from its source
(oil sands).
Integrated mining A combined mining and upgrading operation where oil sands are mined from open pits.
project The bitumen is then separated from the sand and upgraded by a refining process.
Insitu recovery The process of recovering crude bitumen from oil sands by drilling.
Merchant upgrader Processing facilities that are not linked to any specific extraction project but is designed
to accept raw bitumen on a contract basis from producers.
Oil Condensate, crude oil, or a constituent of raw gas, condensate, or crude oil that is
recovered in processing and is liquid at the conditions under which its volume is
measured or estimated.
Oil sands Refers to a mixture of sand and other rock materials containing crude bitumen or the
crude bitumen contained in those sands.
Oil sands deposit A natural reservoir containing or appearing to contain an accumulation of oil sands
separated or appearing to be separated from any other such accumulation. The AER
has designated three areas in Alberta as oil sands areas.
Oil Sands Heavy In this report, Oil Sands Heavy includes upgraded heavy sour crude oil, and bitumen to
which light oil fractions (i.e. diluent or upgraded crude oil) have been added in order to
reduce its viscosity and density to meet pipeline specifications.
Open season A period of time designated by a pipeline company to determine shipper interest on a
proposed project. Potential customers can indicate their interest/support by signing a
transportation services agreement for capacity on the pipeline.
Pentanes plus A mixture mainly of pentanes and heavier hydrocarbons that ordinarily may contain
some butanes and is obtained from the processing of raw gas, condensate or crude oil.
PADD Petroleum Administration for Defense District that defines a market area for crude oil in
the U.S.
SynBit A blend of bitumen and synthetic crude oil that has similar properties to medium sour
crude oil.
Train (manifest) Manifest trains carry multiple cargoes and make multiple stops. These are small group
or single car load.
Train (unit) Unit trains carry a single cargo and deliver a single shipment to one destination,
lowering the cost and shortening the trip.
Upgrading The process that converts bitumen or heavy crude oil into a product with a lower
density and viscosity.
West Texas Intermediate WTI is a light sweet crude oil, produced in the United States, which is the benchmark
grade of crude oil for North American price quotations.
Heavy
Alberta 118 114 113 111 105 100 95 90 86 90 85 81 77 73 70
Saskatchewan2, 233 235 229 225 219 214 212 213 214 215 215 216 218 220 223
Heavy 350 349 342 336 324 314 307 303 300 305 300 297 295 293 293
PENTANES/CONDENSATE 261 298 325 340 352 356 360 364 363 364 365 362 362 363 361
W. CANADA CONVENTIONAL 1,237 1,232 1,219 1,219 1,221 1,226 1,231 1,234 1,235 1,238 1,241 1,244 1,250 1,259 1,262
(incl. condensates)
Notes:
1. Atlantic Canada production includes Newfoundland & Labrador production and negligible volumes from New Brunswick. Condensates/pentanes from Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are also added.
2. CAPP allocates Saskatchewan Area III Medium crude as heavy crude. Also 17% of Area IV is > 900 kg/m3.
WESTERN CANADA
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
OIL SANDS (BITUMEN &
UPGRADED CRUDE OIL)
Mining 1,028 1,176 1,365 1,392 1,406 1,417 1,420 1,424 1,427 1,428 1,428 1,407 1,409 1,455 1,506
Insitu 1,372 1,514 1,619 1,668 1,715 1,746 1,778 1,830 1,869 1,925 1,992 2,026 2,060 2,120 2,164
TOTAL OIL SANDS 2,400 2,690 2,984 3,060 3,122 3,164 3,199 3,254 3,296 3,353 3,420 3,433 3,469 3,575 3,669
W. Canada Oil Production 3,637 3,923 4,203 4,278 4,343 4,389 4,430 4,488 4,531 4,591 4,662 4,677 4,719 4,834 4,932
E. Canada Oil Production 213 195 232 265 279 268 280 298 307 287 253 228 212 198 186
TOTAL CANADIAN OIL 3,850 4,118 4,435 4,543 4,622 4,657 4,710 4,786 4,838 4,878 4,915 4,905 4,931 5,032 5,118
PRODUCTION
OIL SANDS RAW BITUMEN** 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Mining 1,147 1,338 1,526 1,555 1,570 1,582 1,586 1,590 1,595 1,595 1,595 1,581 1,597 1,644 1,698
Insitu 1,391 1,540 1,640 1,688 1,735 1,766 1,796 1,848 1,885 1,941 2,009 2,049 2,084 2,145 2,188
TOTAL OIL SANDS RAW BITUMEN 2,538 2,878 3,166 3,243 3,305 3,347 3,382 3,438 3,480 3,537 3,604 3,631 3,681 3,790 3,886
Total Light Supply 1,253 1,300 1,333 1,326 1,318 1,328 1,333 1,332 1,333 1,324 1,323 1,335 1,391 1,397 1,399
Total Heavy Supply 2,662 2,902 3,190 3,280 3,356 3,401 3,443 3,514 3,569 3,651 3,738 3,740 3,755 3,907 4,046
WESTERN CANADA OIL SUPPLY 3,915 4,202 4,522 4,606 4,675 4,728 4,776 4,847 4,902 4,975 5,061 5,074 5,147 5,304 5,445
Notes:
1. Includes upgraded conventional.
2. Includes: a) imported condensate b) manufactured diluent from upgraders and c) upgraded heavy volumes coming from upgraders.
.
APPENDIX B
ACRONYMS, ABBREVIATIONS, UNITS AND CONVERSION FACTORS
Conversion Factor
1 cubic metre = 6.293 barrels (oil)
UPGRADERS
Syncrude (Fort McMurray)................. 465
Suncor (Fort McMurray) .................... 438
Shell (Scotford) ................................. 240
RAINBO
CNRL (Horizon) ................................. 210
W
VANCOUVER TO: PRINCE GEORGE
Japan - 4,300 miles Husky.............. 12
Taiwan - 5,600 miles
S.Korea - 4,600 miles
China - 5,100 miles EDMONTON
Imperial .........................191
San Francisco - 800 miles Suncor...........................142
Shell ............................. 100
.
Los Angeles - 1,100 miles
LLOYDMINSTER
Husky asphalt plant .........29
Husky Upgrader...............82
HU
SK
Y
VANCOUVER
Chevron (sold to Parkland Fuels) ......55 REGINA
KEYSTONE
Complex ......................................135
PUGET SOUND MOOSE JAW
BP (Cherry Pt) .............234 Moose Jaw asphalt plant ...............19
Phillips 66 (Ferndale) ...101
Shell (Anacortes)..........137
Tesoro (Anacortes) .......120 WA
NAA
TrailStone (Tacoma) .......42
SC
WA
GREAT FALLS
Calumet ......................25
BILLINGS
CHS (Laurel) ................56 MT
Phillips 66....................60
OR SUP
KEYSTONE
ExxonMobil ..................60
ID Dickinson ND Calu
Suncor........................... 98 NY
EXP
WH RE SS
ITE
UT CLI
FFS
CO KS
IL
OB
BAKERSFIELD OKLAHOMA
PACIF
NM
San Joaquin............... 14
Coffeyville Res. (Wynnewood) .................70 EA H
SP OUT
Valero (Ardmore).....................................86 S
NM M
LOS ANGELES AZ BORGER/MCKEE
Alon USA .........................70
Tesoro (Carson/Wilmington) ... 380 WRB ............................ 146 OK
Chevron ................................ 291 Valero .......................... 195 S
Diam GA
PBF ...................................... 155 URION ond PE
CENT
Phillips 66 ............................ 139
Valero .................................... 85
PADD III
SEAWAY TWIN
AR
Artesia Slaughter
TRAN
Big
SCAN
Spring
ADA
Crane XO
Tesoro (El Paso)................................... .135 ID ES N
GE S MO
CRAN TE LA B
T
E X
TX HO-HO
CA
CT
US
UPGRADERS
Syncrude (Fort McMurray)................. 465
Suncor (Fort McMurray) .................... 438
ADDITIONAL CAPACITY NEEDED PRICES AND INVESTMENT KEY COMPETITVENESS CHALLENGES FACING Shell (Scotford) ................................. 240
RAINBO
CNRL (Horizon) ................................. 210
39%
W
VANCOUVER TO: PRINCE GEORGE 2016 CANADIAN CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION
Japan - 4,300 miles Husky.............. 12 000 m3/d 000 b/d
Taiwan - 5,600 miles
Crude oil prices dropped from more S.Korea - 4,600 miles
China - 5,100 miles Key industry challenges are tempering long-term growth prospects.
EDMONTON
British Columbia
Alberta
10
457
61
3,066
FOR INFORMATION CONTACT: (403) 267-1141 / CAPP.CA
Imperial .........................191
Suncor...........................142 Saskatchewan 73 461
San Francisco - 800 miles Manitoba 6 40
EXISTING PIPELINE CAPACITY than US$100 per barrel in 2014, due
Los Angeles - 1,100 miles 1. UNCERTAINTY. Canadas policies and regulations
Shell ............................. 100
LLOYDMINSTER are becoming
.
Northwest Territories 1 9
increasingly more stringent and costly, resulting in reduced
Husky asphalt plant .........29
Husky Upgrader...............82
Western Canada 578 3,637 NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR
attractiveness for investment. HU
SK
Y Eastern Canada 34 213
Silver Range (Come by Chance) .......... 115
2016 2030
to a global oversupply of oil. Prices Total Canada 612 3,850
VANCOUVER
Chevron........... 55
2. CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF GOVERNMENT REGINA
POLICY CHANGES.
SUPPLY OF WESTERN CANADIAN CRUDE OIL Developing resources responsibly to help achieve key Come by Chance
KEYSTONE
Complex ......................................135
have recovered somewhat since
WILL GROW 39 PER CENT BY 2030 TO regulatory, social and environmental outcomes,
PUGET SOUND MOOSE JAWis important and
BP (Cherry Pt) .............234 Moose Jaw asphalt plant ...............19 Hibernia White Rose
Phillips 66 (Ferndale) ...101 needs be done in a manner that does not unnecessarily burden Hebron
NA
early 2016 to almost US$50 per TrailStone (Tacoma) .......42
CA
S
PIPELINE TOLLS FOR LIGHT OIL (US$ PER BARREL)
3. GREAT
POTENTIAL DIVERGENT POLICIES FROM U.S. COMPETITORS.
WA
FALLS
Calumet ......................25 SAINT JOHN Edmonton to
U.S. producers may not have to face similar policies to those in Irving ...................300 Burnaby (Trans Mountain) 2.00
barrel in May 2017. CAPP estimates Canada. BILLINGS
Additionally,
CHS (Laurel) ................56 protectionist
MT policies that may be pursued MONTRAL/QUBEC Saint John Anacortes (Trans Mountain/Puget) 2.30
Suncor.................... 137 Sarnia (Enbridge) 4.50
OR by the current U.S. administration are also a cause for concern.
Phillips 66....................60
ExxonMobil ..................60
SUPERIOR
SARNIA Valero ..................... 230 Montral (Enbridge) 6.10
ID
KEYSTONE
Dickinson ND Calumet............45
Imperial ............... 119 ME Chicago (Enbridge) 4.10
2017 producer capital spending for
PADD IV Shell ...................... 73 Montral
KIANTONE
CA
PADD II CT RI
SALT LAKE CITY
USGC (Keystone/Gulf Coast Ext.) 7.15 -11.55
KANSAS
WESTERN CANADA HEAVY OIL SANDS SUPPLY
Big West ............. 35 NE CHS (McPherson)....................................85
provides 95 MI WARREN
PENNSYLVANIA
Chevron.............. 53 HollyFrontier (El Dorado) ......................135 IA United .......... 70 USEC to Montral (Portland/Montral) 0.50
per cent of this DENVER/COMMERCE
HollyFrontier ....... 45 growth. CITY IL DETROIT
NJ Monroe Energy (Trainer)................ 195
SH
Coffeyville Res. (Coffeyville) ..................115
dramatic change to projects due
Marathon.......... 132 PA Phil. Energy Solutions (Phil.).......... 335
ELL
Tesoro ................ 63 PO
Suncor........................... 98 NY St. James to Wood River (Capline/Capwood) 1.30
CHEVRON
EX
THE ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTHWHIN ITE WESTERN
PRE
SS CANADA SUPPLY Flanagan
IN Newell Philadelphia
UT CLI NEWELL, WV PIPELINE TOLLS FOR HEAVY OIL (US$ PER BARREL)
is projected to be 5 per MD
FFS
CO cent from 2017 to 2020, then slow to an Ergon............ 23
DE
NEW JERSEY
Hardisty to:
to continuing uncertainty in the KS OH Phillips 66 (Bayway)........ 241
average annual growth rate OKLAHOMA
of 2 per cent through 2030. WV VA PBF (Paulsboro) .............. 168 Chicago (Enbridge) 4.30
IL
OB
BAKERSFIELD Axeon SP (Paulsboro)........ 74
PACIF
Cushing (Enbridge) 5.45*-6.70
M
Phillips 66 (Ponca City) .........................203 D DELAWARE
N
Kern Oil ..................... 26 EA
XO
HollyFrontier (Tulsa) .............................125
EASTERN CANADA
San Joaquin............... 14 RH PBF (Delaware City) ........ 190 Cushing (Keystone) 6.10**-6.85
IC
is forecast to contribute up to 307,000 b/d OHIO
EX
Coffeyville Res. (Wynnewood) .................70 EA H
SP OUT
long term. NM but then decline steadily.
of production by 2024
Valero (Ardmore).....................................86 S
KY WOOD RIVER
BP-Husky (Toledo)........................160
PBF (Toledo).................................170
Wood River (Enbridge/Mustang/Capwood)
Wood River (Keystone)
5.85
5.05**-6.00
LOS ANGELES AZ MO WRB .................................314
ROBINSON
Marathon (Canton) .........................93
BORGER/MCKEE Husky (Lima)................................160 Wood River (Express/Platte) 5.50*
Alon USA .........................70 OK Marathon..........................231 Marathon (Catlettsburg) ...............273 USGC (Enbridge/Seaway) 7.00 - 9.05
Tesoro (Carson/Wilmington) ... 380 WRB ............................ 146
TN
MARKETS
S
OP
MT VERNON
Valero .......................... 195 SU
Chevron ................................ 291 GA USGC (Keystone/Gulf Coast Ext.) 7.80 - 12.55
ETC
Diam Countrymark.......................28
Drilling by conventional crude oil PBF ...................................... 155
CENT
U RION ond PE NC
Phillips 66 ............................ 139
PADD III
MEMPHIS Notes 1) Assumed exchange rate = 0.73 US$ / 1C$ (May 2017 average)
CAPP forecasts an additional 1.5 million b/d of supplies coming from
PADD I
Valero .................................... 85 Valero ..................180
SEAWAY TWIN
2) Tolls rounded to nearest 5 cents
AR EL DORADO 3) Tolls in effect July 1, 2017
Western Canada by 2030. The combined regional opportunities in Delek.....................80
CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN THE OIL SANDS producers is expected to increase
Artesia Slaughter
TRAN
* 10-year committed toll
Canada, the U.S. and globally can reasonably
Big
Spring
be expected to absorb MISSISSIPPI SC **20-year committed toll
SCAN
First Open Season,15-year, 50,000+ b/d committed volumes
2014
Chevron (Pascagoula) ..................330
these incremental supplies. International Joint Tariff
NEW MEXICO/W. TEXAS Ergon (Vicksburg)...........................25
GA
ADA
HollyFrontier (Artesia) ...........................100 PE LOUISIANA
M R AL
by 70 per cent compared to 2016, Calumet (Shreveport) ........ 60
GULF
Alon (Big Spring). ....................................73 TYLER IA
Tesoro (Gallup)........................................25 Delek.....................75 BR
N
EX
PR EX ALABAMA
Crude Refining Capacities as at June 1, 2017
Crane XO
MS
COAS
Tesoro (El Paso)................................... .135 ID
GE
ES
S
LA
N MO Hunt (Tuscaloosa) ..........................40 MISSISSIPPI RIVER (thousand barrels per day)
$34
CRAN TE
THE COMBINED DEMAND GROWTH FROMTX
CHINA AND INDIA OFHO-HO
BIL
2017 X Shell (Saraland) .............................85
T
E ExxonMobil (Baton Rouge) ...........503
Petroleum Administration for
CA
St.
but would still be 40 per cent
PBF (Chalmette)...........................189
James PADD
CT
10.1 MILLION B/D IS EQUAL TO MORE THAN 90 PER CENT Defense District
Marathon (Garyville).....................543
US
Port Arthur/ Lake
HOUSTON/TEXAS CITY Three
Rivers
Nederland/
Beaumont Charles FL Shell (Convent).............................235
Shell (Norco) ................................229
$15
THREE RIVERS PRSI (Pasadena) ........... 100
Marathon (Galveston).... 459 Valero (Norco) ..............................215 Major Existing Crude Oil Pipelines carrying
Valero ............................. 89
lower than in 2014. OF THE WORLD DEMAND INCREASE FROM 2015 TO 2040.
CORPUS CHRISTI Shell (Deer Park)........... 312 PORT ARTHUR/BEAUMONT
ExxonMobil ....................363
LAKE CHARLES
CITGO ............................. 425
Valero (Meraux)............................125
Phillips 66 (Belle Chasse).............247
Canadian crude oil
CITGO ........................... 157 SWEENY ExxonMobil ................... 561
BILLION
.578 Phillips 66....................... 249
Flint .............................. 300 Phillips 66..................... 247 LyondellBasell .............. 268 Alon (Krotz Springs) .......................74 Selected Other Crude Oil Pipelines
SOURCE: IEA World275
Valero ........................... Energy Outlook 2016, NewMarathon Policies Scenario
....................... 86 Valero ............................335 Calcasieu.......................... 75 Placid (Port Allen)...........................60
Total ..............................226
BILLION Valero (2) ................80+225
2017
Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
CAPPs annual Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation
report provides a long-term outlook (2017 to 2030) for total
2017 Canadian crude oil production and western Canadian crude oil
supply, plus key information on markets both existing and
CRUDE OIL FORECAST, potential, and an updated synopsis of the transportation projects
MARKETS AND TRANSPORTATION that could connect projected supply to various markets.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) represents companies, large and small,
that explore for, develop and produce natural gas and crude oil throughout Canada. CAPPs member Canadas crude oil supply is forecast to grow by 5 per cent per year to 2020 then
companies produce about 80 per cent of Canadas natural gas and crude oil. CAPPs associate slow to 2 per cent growth per year to 2030, due to many market uncertainties.
members provide a wide range of services that support the upstream crude oil and natural gas industry. The success of Canadas energy future relies on the ability to overcome these
Together CAPPs members and associate members are an important part of a national industry with challenges, including low commodity prices, pipeline capacity, industry competitiveness,
revenues from oil and natural gas production of about $120 billion a year. regulatory uncertainty, and access to new markets.
Disclaimer:
This publication was prepared
by the Canadian Association
CALGARY ST.JOHNS of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). WESTERN CANADIAN CRUDE OIL SUPPLY IS GROWING BY 1.5 MILLION B/D
While it is believed that the
2100, 350 - 7 Avenue SW 1004, 235 Water Street information contained herein is
Calgary, Alberta, Canada St. Johns, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada reliable under conditions and
T2P 3N9 A1C 1B6 subject to the limitations set
out, CAPP does not guarantee
the accuracy or completeness
OTTAWA VICTORIA of the information. The use of
1.5
1000, 275 Slater Street 360B Harbour Road this report or any information
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada Victoria, British Columbia, Canada contained will be at the users
2016 2030
sole risk, regardless of any fault
K1P 5H9 V9A 3S1 or negligence of CAPP.
Material may be reproduced
for public non-commercial
use provided due diligence is
exercised in ensuring accuracy of
information reproduced; CAPP MILLION
is identified as the source; and
reproduction is not represented B/D
as an official version of the
CAPP.CA information reproduced nor has
2017-0009 any affiliation.