A Framework for the Comparative Analysis of Foreign Policy Behavior
Stephen J. Andriole; Jonathan Wilkenfeld; Gerald W. Hopple
International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 19, No. 2. (Jun., 1975), pp. 160-198,
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‘Sun Aug 27 11:03:19 2006A Framework for the Comparative Analysis
of Foreign Policy Behavior
‘STEPHEN J, ANDRIOLE, JONATHAN WILKENFELD,
and GERALD W, HOFPLE
Deparment of Government and Pes
rivers of Meeland
Research progress in the comparative analysis of foreign
policy has beet impeded by the absence of a viable framework
for analysis. An exartination of the major published inventory
‘of findings in this relatively young subfield demonstrates that
research Tas been disparate, unever, and noncumulative
(McGowan and Shapiro, 1973). Only one specific area of
inquiry—the study of the relationship between domestic and
foreign conflict behavior—has received more than cursory
scrutiny (McGowan and Shapiro, 1973: 79-83, 198-199;
Wilkenfeld, 1973).
Like its pareat field international polities—the comparative
study of foreign policy has tended to pursue an implicit course
that tavolves the construction of islands or clusters of theory, a
AUTHORS’ NOTE: This teveach was supported by tke Athareeé Resch
Projects Agecy of the Desarimeat of Defeas and nas mcaltored by ONR. under
Contact NO001447-4.0739-00%6, The authors would Tike to actowledge the
ames incviaual who reviewed an eats version of thls paper and parry
‘hots who offered extensive, comments-MichuelB, Dolan, Frdaic 8, Penson,
Purse J. MeGowan, Ray E Lieder, Rotare Stos, Mchol K: O'Leary, ichand
H. Van Atta, and labeth Rink, The article repens the itl semen af fe
Inectate Bekavion Arayse (DA) Psjet, an ongoing resewck project based othe
Univecy af Maryland designed to stcive al comparative aod empkical peneralizs:
tions eonceming de sours and proces of Fors poly belrio.
ITEQNATIONAL STUCIE. QUARTERLY, Vi 19 No.2, e978
(60)ivi ea, FOREIGN POLICY BEHAVIOR FRAMEWORK [36]
strategy that was suggested over two decades ago by Guetzkow
(1950). Guetzkow expressed the hope that such islands could
eventually be merged into a-general theory system, From a
Philosophy of social science vantage point, this kind of
orientation is clearly unacceptable; actual developments in the
field of international politics provide even more convincing
evidence of the inherent limitations of this perspective.
The “islands of theory” strategy is thus unproductive and
very probably detrimental. Thete is, furthermore, a need to
avoid the extreme of undirected data collection as well as
excessively abstract exercises in the construction of theories and
“pretheories." Central to our research is the conviction that
there must be a dynamic dialogue between data collection and
theory building, Empirical data must be accumulated within the
context of an overarching theoretical framework, while theatet-
ical propositions and hypotheses must te subjected to careful
‘operationalization and testing.
The present research and its eccompanying analytical frame-
work—which will be presented below-represent an effort to go
beyond previous research and pretheoretical efforts. Several
assumptions or guidelines are central to the development and
refinement of this framework,
First is the desite to be theoretically comprehensive. For
example, the five general independent variable clusters, to be
dlaborated below, ate derived ultimately from the five com-
monly identified social scientific levels of analysis, While
ensuing research will ettempt to specify the relative potency of
1, Date psthesing proigcte and ptetheores ae important elements ia. the
armament of saci Sets; no intelestal hubs intended by our eaque
Gf pat reparch corenning the comarsine study of foci pokey. As Young
(C992: 187190) pomte out, such actives As entation, conccptelztin, and
factual anesoment ar iiportan, hat should not be equated with theorizing Ct,
‘Would ed, wit framework cnesrution),
‘Our lies to construct an aralc famework for the comparative study of
oaviga policy would be inconcemabke without the data calecton ard nypothesic
‘ering Sat ave aeady cesued. What is most nib inthe socialsciences is te
Uilarveste fendeney fo invent schema ot theareswathout reference ta das, 3
fwotlem that andenably retarded propets i the suilé af eomparve poles
ter she prolfteation of “theoretical” txonomies, ypologies and fameworks in
the {980s Fors concrete itt of the renling Np etn theory 38 tain
tanparatine sly, se Hopkins (1969: 71-94).[162] INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTPRLY
the five clusters in the context of varving types of states and
foreign policy events, it is our contention that one of the
clusters can be arbitrarily innored.
Equally crucial is the integrative nature of this work,
Research progress at this stage of inquiry warrants a synthesis of
previous findings, Such a synthesis should constitute an
ordering of propositions in terms of independent variable
clusters and state and event typologies, rather than the
presentation of a potpourri of hypotheses in inventory form,
Integration extends beyond this and embraces the array of
‘operational strategies that have been executed in foreign policy
and international political analysis. Agarceate data (Russett et
al, 1964; Taylor and Hudson, 1972; Banks and Textor, 1963;
Banks, 1971; Rummel, 1972), events data (Azar et al., 1972;
Burgess and Lawion, 1972; Sigler et al., 1972), and cortent
analytic data (Norti et al., 1963) need to be employed. While
we propose to collect some new data, the data acquisition
projects of the past decase offer a firm empirical base from
‘which hypotheses might be extracted.
‘Methodological integration as conceived here also involves an
explicit effort to nurture a creative interplay between qualita-
tive and quantitative data. Qualitative data range from deci
sional case studies to in-depth psychological analyses of foreign
policy decision makers. Not all key variables can be converted
into “hard data,” and the exclusion of certain qualitative
factors would truncate the range of possible generalizations
concerning the sources and processes of foreign policy ber
havior?
The goals of integrating theoretical propositions and come
‘ining operational research techniques are based on the assump-
2. Generalizations cancening the sources of foci policy behavior refer to
statements about he coal or deteinatve [ctor af behave, whe generale
ns concen te process af fren policy formulation and executon reer ta
Stements out the Gehavon of the decimal unit caen ae indduae and
snseztes) caraed with cesgonding to. an extetal even Inthe cas of source
Stays «2! of independent variable is ustsposed with tof dependent yables
‘which genetllycefets to an external oes poley event. Proce nals cevere tbe
Ihslaeaton snd conceptualize indegenden! soure variables as dependec, whie
Dosing the extemal event as the tatpenden’ vanable (2 Andre, 3974)
‘Accordingly, is aril deals exciey th sontce analysand it amowork Is