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Modern Delay Analysis

Techniques

Scott Adams BEng LLB PgD LLM CEng MICE FCIArb MAPM MAE
Scott Adams Consultants Ltd.
505 Winfield Commercial Bldg.
6-8 Prat Avenue, TST, HK
Tel: 2312 1708, Fax: 2723 1738
Web: www.scadacon.com.hk
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Modern Delay Analysis
Techniques
1. Static methods
Only one network used: Delays added into it, or
subtracted from it progress not accounted for

2. Dynamic methods
Several networks used, updated either in real time or
retrospectively progress accounted for

[AACE International Recommended Practice

No.29R-03 Forensic Schedule Analysis: 5-level
taxonomy, giving 8 broad methodologies
described over 105 closely-typed pages]
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Contents
The Mirant case
Windows analysis an example
Other RDA techniques
Advantages and disadvantages
The City Inn Case
Problems of programming
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Mirant v Ove Arup [2007]

Summary observations of HHJ Toulmin at 564:

Windows analysis, reviewing the course of a

Project month by month, provides an excellent
form of analysis to inform those controlling the
Project what action they need to take to prevent
delay to the Project.
Without such analysis those controlling the
Project may think they know what activities are
on the critical path but it may well appear after a
critical path analysis that they were mistaken.
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Windows Analysis
The expert must not only be familiar with
the chronology, he must tell the story in his
report. Some would say that the
software exercise counts for nothing
unless backed up by the narrative.
John Marrin QC: Expert Evidence on Delay and
Disruption The Tribunals Perspective
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Windows Analysis
Example project: Civil Engineering Works
But - exactly the same programming
principles apply in building works projects
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Windows Analysis
Example project: Bridge and Approach
Road;
Start date 01-Jan-07; Date for Completion
30-Jun-07; (6 month project)
Main Contractor a bridge specialist; but
not a road-works specialist so this will be
sub-contracted out
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Bridge forms critical

path (6 months to
construct)

Approach Road has

66d of float

66d

THE INITIAL PROGRAMME (Carefully planned and resourced)

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Events in First Window (Jan/Feb)

Day 1: Excavation starts; S/C bids compiled;
Day 10: VO1 issued, increasing the depth of
abutment foundations 20d extra excavation
required;
Day 25: Road Subcontract awarded (NB. 5d
late);
Day 58 (End of window): (i) Abutments
excavation almost completed; (ii) Road paving
cannot be sourced (materials shortage)
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Increased depth: 20d

additional excavation
VO1

1st window

Subcontract award
after 25d (5d late)

Paving not commenced

due to material shortage
20d delay
due to VO1
SITUATION AS AT END OF FEB 07 (Close of First Window)
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Events in 2nd Window (Mar/Apr)

Day 60: Excavation of abutments completed; Day 75:
Pavement laying commenced
Day 90: Concreting of abutments completes slowly,
taking 30d in total (so a 14d delay);
Day 100: VO2 major instruction for a further km of
road, in difficult ground (on piles) planned at 21d to
source piling s/c, 30d to drive 30 piles, 20d to test, 30d to
construct new road & drains, and 15d for street furniture
Day 120 (End of window): No further delays, but due to
massive VO2, the approach roads are now on the critical
path
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Slow Concreting of
Abutments (14d delay)

2nd window

21d VO2

New 0.5km of road; in

poor ground (on piles)

48d delay; (20d VO1, 14d

slow abutments; 14d VO2)
SITUATION AS AT END OF APR 07 (Close of Second Window)
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Events in 3rd Window (May/Jun)

Day 121: Falsework erectors go on strike for the whole
month of May
Day 135: Contractor says that he will mitigate the delay
by doubling up resources on the commissioning stage;
Day 160: VO3 10 more piles instructed in the new piled
approach section, these will take an extra 10 days to
complete
Day 181 (End of window): No further delays, but due to
the month-long strike, the bridge has become once again
more critical than the approach road
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One month lost due to

falsework s/c strike

3rd window

Mitigation:
commissioning
21d now only 8d
VO3

VO3: Additional piles

instructed at new road

66d delay; (20d VO1, 14d slow abutments;

14d VO2; 25d strike; -7d mitigation)
SITUATION AS AT END OF JUN 07 (Close of Third Window)
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Events in 4th Window (Jul/Aug)

Day 182 - Day 243: Further problems with
Falsework erectors not all were pleased with
strike settlement terms, and productivity suffers.
Day 243 (End of window): No further delays;
approach road completed bar for commissioning;
but the elevated bridge concrete deck only
managed completion at the very end of this
period. The bridge thus remained more critical
than the approach road throughout.
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More than one further

month lost due to poor
falsework s/c
productivity

4th
window

21d

98d delay; (20d VO1, 14d slow abutments;

14d VO2; 25d strike; -7d mitigation; 32d
poor falsework productivity)
SITUATION AS AT END OF AUG 07 (Close of Fourth Window)
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Events in 5th Window (Sep/Oct)

Day 270: VO4, some new road markings and
revised drainage causes an extra 10d of work.
Day 289 (End of project): The project
completes on 16 October 2007, some 108 days
late.
Critical VOs:- VO1=20d, VO2=14d; VO4=10d:
Total = 44d
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5th
window

21d

New Road marking VO4

scheme
-108

SITUATION AS AT END OF OCT 07 (Close of Fifth Window) 108d

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2007
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
110 VO4 110
100
10d 100
90 1st window [20d 2nd window 3rd window 4th window [98d 90
delay] [48d delay] delay]
Bridge complete
[66d delay]
80 108d late 80
Falseworker
70 Strike action 70
Poor falsework
60 productivity 60
50 50
VO3
40
Slow abutments 14d Approach Road
40
progress construction
30 completed 30
20 20
10 VO1 20d VO2 Mitigation by
10
0 increasing 0
-10 commissioning -10
teams KEY:
-20 BRIDGE -20
-30 -30
S/C issued APPROACH ROAD
-40 late -40
-50 Lack of paving -50
-60 materials -60
-70 -70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2007
Time v Delay Chart
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As-Built Subtracted Analysis

Take the as-built programme, and subtract the
delays which the contractor has suffered (which
are not to his own default).
This gives rise to a theoretical date, the date on
which the contractor would have finished but for
the delays
The difference between the ABBF date, and the
actual completion date represents the potential
entitlement to EOT
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VO1

21d VO2

VO3

-108 VO4

AS-BUILT BUT-FOR / AS-BUILT SUBTRACTED ANALYSIS

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30d

-78

AS-BUILT BUT-FOR / AS-BUILT SUBTRACTED ANALYSIS

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As-Built Subtracted Analysis

The longest path is favoured
Only the VOs on the longest path feature in the
subtraction, irrespective of the contemporary
criticality of other VOs
Thus, VO1 (20d) and VO4 (10d) are those which,
when subtracted, cause the ABBF date to be
collapsed back in time. Thus the potential EOT
entitlement here is 30d (cf. 44d in the windows
analysis)
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As-Planned Impacted Analysis

The initial programme (warts and all) is taken,
and into it are impacted all of the delays which
the contractor has suffered
The impacts are added into the initial network;
sometimes this is done in real time, but this
causes problems if the delays are caused late
due to the contractors own problems (e.g. a VO
instructed at a late stage merely because of
earlier contractors delays);
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THE INITIAL PROGRAMME (Carefully planned and resourced)

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VO1

VO2, VO4
VO3

-68d

THE INITIAL PROGRAMME IMPACTED WITH VO1-VO4

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As-Planned Impacted Analysis

The impacts take no account of progress, or of any of the
contractors own defaults.
The resultant date is again a theoretical date, perhaps best
described as the date for which the contractor would have
programmed if it had know about all of the additionally
instructed work at the outset;
If the VOs are impacted in chronological order, then they all
figure in this example: VO1=20d; VO2=28d*; VO3=10d;
VO4=10d: Total = 68d (cf. 30d ABBF, 44d windows analysis)
* Net delay given initial float and the prior occurrence of VO1
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Advantages & Disadvantages

The static analyses (APIP, ABBF) are simple,
requiring only two sheets of paper for a before
and after effect;
But their results are theoretical, there is no
account of progress made, no account of
changes to the plan, no account of mitigation
The windows analysis does take account of
such factors, which may account for the warm
reception in the Mirant case; but this does come
at a cost of complexity, and the programmes
must be reliable also:
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Advantages & Disadvantages

Although the status at the start and end of the
window will allow any delay to be quantified it will
not in itself demonstrate the cause or causes of
delay. Analysis of these [intra-window] delaying
events can be carried out by using any method
which is applicable, dependant upon the
activities and the events in question. It may be
appropriate to use a collapsed as-built or an as-
planned impacted methodology
Lowsley, Linnett About Time, p.90
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HK Standard Form (Private Form)

Upon it becoming reasonably apparent that the
progress of the works is delayed, the MC shall
forthwith give written notice and if in the opinion of
the Architect the completion of the works is likely to be
or has been delayed beyond the DfC by [the
various reasons] then he shall as soon as he is able
to estimate the length of the delay make a fair and
reasonable extension of time for the completion of the
Works
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City Inn v Shepherd
Construction [2007]
Scottish Decision (only of persuasive
value in HK)
JCT-style contract (actual and likely
delay can give rise to EOT)
Pursuers expert used some form of CPM;
Defenders expert used an as-planned vs
as-built chart (not a CPM analysis and
seemingly not capable of discerning likely
delay)
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City Inn v Shepherd Construction

[2007]
Consequently I think it necessary to revert
to the methods that were in use before
computer software came to be used
extensively in the programming of complex
construction
The older methods are still plainly valid,
and if computer-based techniques cannot
be used accurately there is no alternative to
using older non-computer-based
techniques.
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City Inn v Shepherd Construction

[2007]
in the type of programme used to carry out
CPM analysis any significant error in the
information fed into the programme can
invalidate the whole analysis it is easy to
make such errors
That seems to me to invalidate the use of an
as-built CPM analysis to discover after the event
where the critical path lay, at least where full
electronic records are not available from the
Contractor.
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City Inn v Shepherd Construction

[Appeal: 2010]
CONCURRENT DELAY (Lord Carloway)
The initial exercise to be carried out by the architect
occurs upon the application of the contractor, who will
have requested an extension of time by intimating, under
clause 25.2, that the progress of the Works "is being or
is likely to be delayed". He will claim that a Relevant
Event has been the, or at least a, cause of the delay. The
architect then has to decide whether he considers that
the completion of the Works is likely to be delayed by a
Relevant Event beyond the Completion Date (clauses
25.3.1.1 and 2).
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City Inn v Shepherd Construction

[Appeal: 2010]
CONCURRENT DELAY (Lord Carloway)
This provision is designed to allow the contractor
sufficient time to complete the Works, having regard to
matters which are not his fault (i.e. Relevant Events).
This does not, at least strictly, involve any analysis of
competing causes of delay or an assessment of how far
other events have, or might have, caused delay beyond
the Completion Date. It proceeds, to a large extent, upon
a hypothetical assumption that the contract has
proceeded, and will proceed, without contractor default.
It involves an assessment, on that assumption, of the
delay which would have been caused to the Completion
Date purely as a result of the Relevant Event.
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City Inn v Shepherd Construction

[Appeal: 2010]
CONCURRENT DELAY (Lord Carloway)
But the exercise remains one of looking at the Relevant
Event and the effect it would have had on the original (or
already altered) Completion Date. If a Relevant Event
occurs (no matter when), the fact that the Works would
have been delayed, in any event, because of a
contractor default remains irrelevant. In that respect, the
view of HHJ Seymour QC in Royal Brompton Hospital
NHS Trust v Hammond & Others (No 7) [2001] 76 Con
LR 148 (at para 31), that a Relevant Event falls to be
disregarded if a pre-existing contractor default would
nonetheless have caused the delay, appears to be in
error.
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2007
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
110 VO4 110
10d
100 100
90 1st window [20d 2nd window 3rd window 4th window [98d 90
delay] [48d delay] delay]
Bridge complete
[66d delay]
80 108d late 80
Falseworker
70 Strike action 70
Poor falsework
60 productivity 60
50 50
Slow abutments VO3 10d Approach Road
40 progress 28d construction 40
30 completed 30
20 20
10 VO1 20d VO2 10
Mitigation by
0 increasing 0
-10 commissioning -10
teams KEY:
-20 BRIDGE -20
-30 -30
S/C issued APPROACH ROAD
-40 late -40
-50 Lack of paving -50
-60 materials -60
-70 -70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2007
Time v Delay Chart
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City Inn v Shepherd Construction

[Appeal: 2010]
CONCURRENT DELAY (Lord Carloway)
VO1 = 20 days;
VO2 = 28 days;
VO3 = 10 days;
VO4 = 10 days
(So the Lord Carloway approach might
give a 68 day entitlement the same as
the as-planned-impacted in this example).
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Common Programming and

Planning Problems
Planner often a junior/inexperienced staff member;
No resources are considered in programmes;
Programmes are bar-charts, with no logic;
The concertina effect programme depicts
completion on time, even after several delays have
occurred;
OP = PC;
PC certified for commercial (secret) reasons;
The programme becomes a commercial or political
document, not a project management tool
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The Magic Circle

Work to that
Produce a viable,
programme until
working programme
something occurs
with full reasons
which makes it
for all revision(s)
impossible

Examine and quantify

the effects on
the programme