ESTIMATION OF METHANE POTENTIAL

FROM LANDFILL GAS OF THE NEW

HELLENIC SANITARY LANDFILLS

A. KARAGIANNIDIS, T. TSATSARELIS AND N. MOUSSIOPOULOS

Laboratory of Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering, Department of
Mechanical Engineering, Aristotle University, Box 483, GR-54124, Thessaloniki,
Greece

SUMMARY: Up to August 2006, 45 sanitary landfills have already started their operation in
Greece, whereas some 56 more are at various stages of licensing and construction, but only one
of them currently uses landfill gas for energy production, mostly due to the young age of most
sites. The main objective of this research was to perform an estimation of future methane
generation in Hellenic sanitary landfills, in order to evaluate its potential for energy production.
The study was performed for the period of 2008 2028, with the use of a multi-phase model,
including a sensitivity analysis of the results, in order to determine the weight of each selected
coefficient. In this context, two scenarios were considered: One took into account the fulfillment
of the European landfill directive which sets limits to the amount of biodegradable and
packaging materials to be deposited in sanitary landfills, whereas the second one (do-nothing
scenario) assumed no such timely achievement.

1. INTRODUCTION

Organic waste decomposition leads to the production of Landfill Gas (LFG), which can cause
explosions and asphyxiation, has an unpleasant odour (caused by trace gases such as mercaptans
and hydrogen sulphide) and displaces oxygen in the surrounding soils therefore inhibiting the
natural growth of local vegetation. According to (Falzon J., 1997), methane production in
landfills typically begins 6 to 12 months after waste placement, then rises to a maximum shortly
after landfill closure and, finally, gradually declines over a period of 30-50 years. According to
Tchobanoglous G., Theisen H. & al. (1993), 5% of the total methane production is produced
immediately after the closure of a landfill cell and according to Qin W., Egolfopoulos F.N. & al.
(2001), gas production starts immediately after the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) deposition
and attains its peak production rate in about 10 years, whereas one ton of MSW can produce up
to 300 m3 of LFG.
LFG mainly consists of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) and according to Parker T.,
Dottridge J & al. (2002) it also includes 140 trace components, 90 of which were common to all
studied landfill sites. According to another study (Deed C., Cronow J., & al., 2004) though, there
are more than 500 trace compounds in landfill gas. The typical concentration of methane in LFG
is between 35 60% (Falzon J., 1997; Tchobanoglous G., Theisen H. & al., 1993; Deed C.,

Proceedings Sardinia 2007, Eleventh International Waste Management and Landfill Symposium
S. Margherita di Pula, Cagliari, Italy; 1 - 5 October 2007
2007 by CISA, Environmental Sanitary Engineering Centre, Italy
 Sardinia 2007, Eleventh International Waste Management and Landfill Symposium

Cronow J., & al., 2004; Nikiema, J., Bibeau L. & al., 2005). In Europe, an estimated 30% of
anthropogenic CH4 emissions origins from the waste sector (Haubrichs R. & Widmann R., 2005)
and according to Humer & Lechner (2003) and Morcet M., Aran C., & al., (2003) the annual
global methane emissions from landfills is between 14 40 Tg.
It is common understanding now that LFG should be considered either as a significant source
of pollution and risk (if migrating uncontrollably to the air and ground), or as a significant source
of renewable energy (if extracted and processed accordingly). There are two possible solutions
for dealing with LFG emissions. In case of low methane ratio, LFG should be extracted and
flared or oxidized in biofilters. On the other hand, in case of high methane content, LFG
becomes an evidently valuable energy resource, as it is then able to sustain the fueling of engines
producing electricity, and thermal energy. More specifically, it can be used as a supplementary
or primary fuel to increase the production of electric power, as a pipeline quality gas and vehicle
fuel, or even as a supply of heat and carbon dioxide for greenhouses and various industrial
processes. Reported technologies that utilize LFG include i.a. internal combustion engines, gas
turbines, fuel cells and boiler systems (Tsatsarelis T., Karagiannidis A. & al., 2006).
Methods for predicting LFG generation first appeared in the early 1970s. Cossu et al stated
the following definition of model types: The greatest absolute exponent n of the dependent
dC
variable ( = f(t, Cn), where t: time, C: the amount of methane generated or degradable
dt
substrate) is called the order of the model (Lamborn J., 1999). The first types of models tried to
use limited data in order to develop a rational basis for the predictions. Some of this work was
carried out by Ham (1979), Farquhar & Rovers (1973) and Rees (1980) and more zero- and first-
order kinetic models then appeared (Pacey J. & Augenstein D., 1990; Richards K.M., Maulder
D.H., & al., 1992; Coops O., Luning L., & al., 1995), while models using fractal-like kinetics
have also been recently introduced (Meraz R-L., Vidales A-M., & al., 2004). There have been a
number of comparisons between different types of models (Lamborn J., 1999; Scharff H. &
Jacobs J., 2006) which concluded that multi-phase models are the most accurate ones; therefore,
a multi-phase model was chosen to be used in the current study.
Purpose of this study is the estimation of methane which is and will be produced in new
Hellenic sanitary landfills. Up to now, LFG emissions have been estimated by Greece in order to
comply with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
According to the official Hellenic report (Paraskaki I. & Lazaridis M., 2005), methane emissions
in 2000 from landfills in Greece were 548 Gg/year and they increased by 87.7% between 1990
and 2002, which is one of the highest increases among the UNFCCC parties (UNFCCC, 2004).
The main differences between the present study and the aforementioned report are the use of a
multi-phase model, instead of the IPCC default method (zero-order model) respectively, the use
of actual data for a number of sanitary landfills and, in the cases where no data were available,
the compilation of more reliable and pragmatic assumptions.

2. TOOLS AND METHODS

2.1 Estimation model

The chosen model for methane estimation is a multi-phase model developed by the Norwegian
Pollution Control Authority (Statens forurensningstilsyn, SFT), for the calculation of methane
emissions from MSW disposal sites. The model is in full compliance with the Revised
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1996 Guidelines for National Greenhouse
Gas inventories and the IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty management in National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2000) as approved by the UNFCC, with the mathematics of
 Sardinia 2007, Eleventh International Waste Management and Landfill Symposium

the first-order reaction corrected. In order to estimate methane emissions, the following
calculations are made:
Calculation of DDOCmd from deposited amount of material:
DDOCmd = W . MCF . DOC . DOCf
Calculation of DDOCm accumulated in solid waste:
DDOCml = DDOCmd . e-k . ((13-M)/12)
DDOCma = DDOCma(ly) . e-k + DDOCml
Calculation of dissimilated DDOCm:
DDOCmdi = DDOCmd . (1-e-k . ((13-M)/12))
DDOCmdiss = DDOCma(ly) . (1-e-k) + DDOCmdi
Calculation of the produced methane from dissimilated DDOC:
CH4 prod = DDOCmdiss . F . 16/12
Calculation of total emitted methane:
CH4 emitted in year T = CH4 prod (T)
Where:
W: Deposited amount of waste.
MCF: Methane Correction Factor.
M: Month number for reaction start.
DOC: Degradable Organic Carbon.
DDOC: Dissimilatable Organic Carbon in anaerobic conditions.
DOCf: Fraction of DOC dissimilatable in anaerobic conditions.
DDOCmd: DDOC mass deposited.
DDOCml: DDOC mass left not dissimilated from DDOCm deposited at year of deposition.
DDOCma: DDOC mass left not dissimilated at end of year.
DDOCma(ly): DDOC mass accumulated from last year.
DDOCmdi: DDOC mass dissimilated from DDOCm deposited at year of deposition.
DDOCmdiss: DDOC mass dissimilated in calculation year.
CH4 prod: CH4 produced.
F: Fraction CH4 by volume in generated landfill gas.
16/12: Conversion factor from C to CH4.

2.2 Selected coefficients

2.2.1 Methane correction factor

In unmanaged and shallow landfills, a large part of the landfilled materials is degraded under
aerobic conditions. Methane Correction Factor (MCF) is the part left to degrade under anaerobic
conditions. For managed sites, such as sanitary landfills, MCF is set at 1 for all materials.

2.2.2 Degradable Organic Carbon

The Degradable Organic Carbon (DOC) is the organic carbon that is accessible to biochemical
decomposition. The default settings, set in the model, were used. For food waste, the DOC factor
is set at 0.17, for paper at 0.385 and for wood and textiles at 0.4.

2.2.3 Dissimilatable Degradable Organic Carbon under anaerobic conditions

DOCf is the part of DOC which dissimilates under anaerobic conditions. The default settings
were also used for DOCf, which is set at 0.5 for all types of waste.

2.2.4 Reaction rate

 Sardinia 2007, Eleventh International Waste Management and Landfill Symposium

The basis for a first-order kinetics reaction is a reaction starting with the full amount of reactant,
going with a constant reaction rate (k), which depends on parameters such as moisture,
temperature, pH, biochemical feedback, density of waste, etc (Falzon J., 1997; Munoz J.J, Lobo
A.G. & al., 2003).

Table 1. Reaction rate for rapidly, moderately and slowly degradable materials
Rapidly degradable (k1) Moderately degradable (k2) Slowly degradable (k3)
0.187 0.099 0.030

The estimation of k is empirical and is based on experimental data. For the current study, the
values proposed by the Afvalzorg model for Nauerna and Wieringermeer case studies were used
(Scharff H. & Jacobs J., 2006), as shown in Table 1. Food waste is considered as rapidly
degradable waste, paper as moderately degradable and wood and textiles as slowly degradable.

2.2.5 Fraction of methane in developed LFG

Due to lack of more detailed data, LFG is considered to be composed of 50% CH4.

2.3 Selected data

The information needed for the use of the model is the composition of waste and the quantities to
be landfilled for the selected period. The composition of landfilled waste varies according to
different regions and different periods of time. The quantities of landfilled waste vary as well,
depending on factors, such as the increase of population, the waste generation rate, changes in
consumer habits and recycling. For the implementation of the model, 2008 was chosen as the
starting year for waste deposition in the new sanitary landfills, due to the fact that, by the
beginning of this year (following, however, a series of postponements) all open dumps are
obliged to be closed and the generated waste would be deposited in the corresponding available
sanitary landfills. However, methane produced by the two major Hellenic semi-controlled
landfills, one in Thessaloniki, (initiated at 1981 at Tagarades site) and one in Attiki (initiated at
1973 at Ano Liosia site) which serve almost half of the total Hellenic population, was
estimated as well. 2028 was chosen as the last year of waste disposal at the considered sites,
although LFG will clearly continue to be produced.

2.3.1 Composition of waste

Data about the composition of waste for different areas in Greece were gathered from published
studies (Papachristou E., Darakas E. & al., 2002; Gidarakos E., Ntzamilis P. & al., 2006;
Hellenic Official Gazette, 2003; Frantzis I., Makarigakis A. & al., 2003) and personal contacts
with landfill operators and municipalities. In case where no data were available, the
corresponding area was classified into one of the two categories: urban and semi-rural. The
composition of urban waste was calculated as the average of the two major Hellenic urban
Prefectures: Thessaloniki and Attiki. The collected data are shown in Table 2 and they were used
both for the do-nothing scenario and the scenario in which the targets of the EU landfill
directive (setting limits to the amount of biodegradable and packaging materials disposed in
sanitary landfills) were assumed to be achieved.
For the landfill directive scenario, the directive obligations were taken into account,
according to which, the biodegradable waste should be decreased by 25% in the year 2010, by
50% in the year 2013 and by 65% in the year 2020, having the year 1995 as a starting point of
the reduction calculation. Therefore, the composition of disposed food waste should reach the
 Sardinia 2007, Eleventh International Waste Management and Landfill Symposium

limit of 37% by 2010, 28% by 2013 and 20% by 2020. Furthermore, landfilled paper-packaging
materials should be reduced as well at least by 60%, starting at 31-12-2005.

Table 2. Composition of generated waste in various Hellenic locations (Papachristou E., Darakas
E. & al., 2002; Gidarakos E., Ntzamilis P. & al., 2006; Hellenic Official Gazette,
2003; Frantzis I., Makarigakis A. & al., 2003)
Semi-
Thessa- Kiklades Urban
Attiki Larissa Laconia Kozani Crete rural
loniki Islands areas
areas

Food
waste 27% 40% 62% 47% 47% 48% 40% 34% 47%

Paper 29% 32% 16% 25% 18% 22% 20% 31% 25%

Wood 3% 1,50% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1%

Textiles 3% 1,50% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1%

According to calculations from official data (Hellenic Official Gazette, 2003) approximately
50% of landfilled paper could be considered as former packaging material; therefore this amount
should be reduced at least by 60%. All these changes in the composition were considered to have
a linear reduction, starting from 2008 (starting year of the emission estimation) until 2020.

2.3.2 Quantities of waste where data for landfills were available

In case of Thessaloniki, detailed data on the amounts of deposited waste from 1981 to 2005 was
available; therefore the trend of deposited waste could be calculated. Linear regression was
considered adequate as the deviation between the calculations and the actual data was between 2
7%. In case of the landfill of Kozani the increase of deposited waste was also available. For the
rest of the landfills the deposited types of waste (food waste, paper, wood, and textiles) were
assumed to have a 3% increase as calculated by official data ((Hellenic Official Gazette, 2003).
Except from the Prefectures of Thessaloniki and Kozani, data for deposited waste quantities in
sanitary landfills were also available for the Prefectures of Attiki, Larissa, Pieria, Viotia and
Fthiotida.

2.3.3 Quantities of waste where data for landfills were not available
In case where data about the amounts of landfilled waste were not available, these were
calculated by multiplying the population of each Prefecture with its waste generation rate. Again
the waste generation rate was divided into two categories (Papachristou E., Darakas E. & al.,
2002; Gidarakos E., Ntzamilis P. & al., 2006; Hellenic Official Gazette, 2003; Frantzis I.,
Makarigakis A. & al., 2003) as shown in Table 3 and an increase of 3% in the deposited waste
was also implemented.
In case that the location of the planned sanitary landfills was not available, it was assumed
 Sardinia 2007, Eleventh International Waste Management and Landfill Symposium

that 1 sanitary landfill would serve one (of the 51) Hellenic Prefecture, an assumption that in
general fits to the current planning of solid waste management in the country. However, the sum
of both constructed and planned-for-construction sanitary landfills amounts up to 101, which is
very high. This is caused mostly due to the fact that sanitary landfills are planned for
construction in many different islands that comprise a single Prefecture, and in the fact that in
some Prefectures of the mainland (such as Prefecture of Pieria, Pella, Chalkidiki, Achaia,
Fthiotida), more than 2 sanitary landfills do (or are planned to) operate. In such cases, total
methane produced in these Prefectures was calculated.

Table 3. MSW generation rates in Greece

Urban Prefectures Semi-rural Prefectures
Waste generation rate 1,25 kg/person/day 1 kg/person/day

3. RESULTS

3.1 Overall methane production

Between the two chosen scenarios (do nothing and landfill directive), significant differences
in the production of methane were found, as expected. Recycling of landfilled paper and food
waste in the landfill directive scenario, led to a reduction of degradable deposited waste and,
therefore, methane production was nearly 40% lower than that of the do-nothing scenario. Figure
1 illustrates the overall production of methane for the period 1973 -2115 from Hellenic landfills.
Estimated methane in the period between 1973 and 2006 is actually lower than methane
produced in reality, due to the fact that in the landfills of Attiki and Tagarades, accidental landfill
fires have occurred which reduced the total organic carbon of the deposited waste (the last, by
far the most major, was in Tagarades very recently -in July 2006- and resulted in appr. 50.000 t
of deposited MSW being openly burnt as well as in the flooding of nearby areas by leaking
leachate, which resulted in major environmental damages and implications which are still
investigated and are under way). Figures 2 and 3 illustrate the sum of the estimated methane
generation for each Prefecture individually. Although the scenario, in which the landfill directive
is implemented, is considered as closest to reality, deviations may occur from the prescribed
goals. Peak values of methane production (Mg/y) and LFG production rate (m3/h) which occurs
at 2029, assuming that waste deposition starts at 2008 and stops at 2028, were also calculated.

450000

400000

350000
do-nothing scenario
300000 landfill directive scenario
CH4 (Mg/y)

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130
year

Figure 1. Calculated annual methane generation from new Hellenic sanitary landfills.
 Sardinia 2007, Eleventh International Waste Management and Landfill Symposium

Figure 2: Overall methane generation (Mg) Figure 3: Overall methane generation (Mg)
from landfills for the period 2008- from landfills for the period 2008-
2028 according to the do-nothing 2028 according to the landfill
scenario. directive scenario.

3.2 Case study

For further illustrating the investigation of methane production in Hellenic landfills, an
individual sanitary landfill was randomly selected, namely in the Prefecture of Etoloakarnania,
which is currently under construction. The population of this Prefecture is 224,429 and it is
assumed that all generated MSW will be deposited in this landfill, starting with approximately
82000 Mg/y on 2008. For this case study, the goals landfill directive scenario was assumed to
have been achieved. Figures 4 and 5 illustrate the generated methane and LFG, respectively,
according to the landfill directive scenario.

4000

3500

3000

2500
CH4 (Mg/y)

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

years

Figure 4: Production of methane in the Etoloakarnania landfill (landfill directive scenario).

 Sardinia 2007, Eleventh International Waste Management and Landfill Symposium

1400

1200

1000
LFG (m^3/h)

800

600

400

200

0
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130
years

Figure 5: Rate of LFG production in the Etoloakarnania landfill (landfill directive scenario).

As observed, the gradient of the curves in Figures 4 and 5 declines during the period of 2020
2030. This is justified by the continuous reduction of food waste until 2020 according to the
landfill directive scenario. Figure 5 shows that LFG production reaches a peak of 1200 m3/h,
thus showing that LFG production is more than adequate to sustain energy production.

3.3 Sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity analysis of selected coefficients was also conducted in order to examine and specify
the effect of their variation to the overall LFG production. Figure 6 illustrates the effect of
methane ratio to methane production.

3500

3000
methane: 45%
methane: 50%
2500
CH4 (Mg/y)

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
year

Figure 6. Methane production in the Etoloakarnania landfill for 45% and 50% methane content.
 Sardinia 2007, Eleventh International Waste Management and Landfill Symposium

Methane production in these two cases is starting to differentiate after 3 years of waste
disposition, although the reduction after the peak of methane production (in 2029) shows similar
values. The peak value in case of 50% methane is approximately 9% higher than that of 45%
methane. Figure 7 shows the different curves of methane generation under different waste
production rates.

6000

5000

prod.rate: 0.8 kg/person/d

prod.rate:1 kg/person/d
4000
prod.rate: 1.2 kg/person/d
CH4 (Mg/y)

prod.rate: 1.4 kg/person/d

3000

2000

1000

0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
year

Figure 7. CH4 production in Etoloakarnania landfill for 4 different waste production rates.

Production rate of generated waste was used in the case that no data on the amounts of deposited
waste were available. Figure 7 shows that small variations in waste production rates lead to
significant changes in estimated LFG production. The peak values of methane generation are
25% higher between 0.8 and 1 kg/pesron/d, 20% between 1 and 1.2 kg/person/d and 15% higher
between 1.2 and 1.4 kg/person/d. For the Eteloakarnania case, the default value for the
calculations was 1 kg/person/d.
The contribution of the selected half-life duration of food waste, paper, wood and textiles to
the overall methane production was also calculated. Half life of the materials is related to the
reaction rate (k) of the model through the equation k = ln2/t1/2. According to the results,
variations on half life of food waste, wood and textiles (Figures 8, 9) do not alter the methane
estimations significantly. Regarding to food waste, the peak values of methane production are
almost the same in each case, with less than 1% difference to each other. The peak value is
marginally bigger for smaller half-life duration of food waste. A difference is observed though,
2-10 years after waste deposition and 2-19 years after the peak value of the curve, where the
production of methane is higher at lower half-life figures of food waste, again the difference is
less than 1%.
Methane production for half life of wood and textiles between 15 and 30 years appears almost
identical, indicating that their variation does not affect it significantly (Figure 9). On the
contrary, variation the half time of paper seems to affect the methane production curve. For half
life of 6, 7 and 8 years, the differences are less than 1%, but if half life of paper is doubled then
the peak value drops more than 20%, leading to a smoother curve.
 Sardinia 2007, Eleventh International Waste Management and Landfill Symposium

4000

3500 half life: 2.5

half life: 3
3000 half life: 3.7
half life: 4.5
2500
CH4(Mg/y)

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
year

Figure 8. CH4 production in Etoloakarnania landfill for 4 half lifes (y) of food waste.

4500

4000 half life: 15

half life: 20
3500 half life: 23
half life: 30
3000
g/y)

2500
CH4(M

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
year

Figure 9. CH4 production in Etoloakarnania landfill for 4 half lifes (y) of wood & leather.

4500

4000
half life: 6
half life: 7
3500
half life: 8
3000 half life: 15
g/y)

2500
CH4(M

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
year

Figure 10. CH4 production in Etoloakarnania landfill for 4 different half lifes of waste paper.

4. CONCLUSIONS

According to the findings of this study, methane contained in LFG to be generated from new
Hellenic landfills is generally able to sustain LFG-to-energy systems, even if the objectives of
the landfill directive (setting limits to the amount of biodegradable and packaging materials to be
 Sardinia 2007, Eleventh International Waste Management and Landfill Symposium

deposited in landfills) are strictly and timely achieved. This result is mainly justified by the fact
that landfills are still the prevailing option in Hellenic solid waste management in the majority of
its Prefectures and this status seems that it will not radically change in the following years.
Currently in Greece, electricity and thermal energy are co-generated from LFG only in the
present landfill of Attiki Prefecture, with an installed capacity of 13.9 MW. In the present semi-
controlled landfill of Thessaloniki Prefecture, a new LFG-to-energy 5 MW plant has been
recently built and put to operation. Landfill operators in Greece lately seem to be generally in
favor of LFG-to-energy projects, especially after the new (2006) draft legislation of the Hellenic
Ministry of Development which sets electricity price produced by landfill gas at 73 /MWhelecttic.
The success of an LFG-to-energy project is dependant to an accurate and timely estimation of
the produced LFG, as an overestimation could lead to its failure. This estimation depends on the
accuracy of the selected model, the quality of available data and the selection of the correct
coefficients. Sensitivity analysis in the present study has shown that methane production as
estimated by this model, is strongly influenced by the estimated waste production rate; therefore,
in the case that future waste production rates are increased, methane production will rise as well
by at least 15%. On the other hand, the half-life periods of food waste, wood and textiles do not
influence methane production as estimated by this specific model, although the half life of paper
seems to notifiably change the methane production curve.

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