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Group A2
Anand Abhishek, Bharath Sankaran, Mayank Thapliyal, Rohan Chakraborty,
Urvashi Surana, Varun Madnani
Data Sources
- Nestle ERP System
Pre Processing
Benchmark
- Imputed Missing Data
- Nave Model
Technical - Handled outliers
Details
Methods Used
Performance Measure Nave, MLR, Simple
Exponential, Holts, Holts
- MAPE Winter, Neural Networks
Confidence of Validation Forecast
MONTH Actual Forecast Error LCI UCI Exponential
Feb-16 1801 3359.971 -1558.97 1477.846 5242.095 27.89%
Mar-16 4376 3359.971 1016.029 1477.845 5242.096
Apr-16 4023 3359.971 663.0294 1477.844 5242.097
May-16
Jun-16
5233
4796
3359.971
3359.971
1873.029
1436.029
1477.844
1477.843
5242.097
5242.098
BEST
Jul-16 5018 3359.971 1658.029 1477.842 5242.099
Moving Avg MLR
Aug-16
Sep-16
3699
3784
3359.971
3359.971
339.0294
424.0294
1477.842
1477.841
5242.1
5242.1 23.12% MAPE 27.96%
Oct-16 3412 3359.971 52.02941 1477.84 5242.101
Nov-16 3675 3359.971 315.0294 1477.839 5242.102
Dec-16 2918 3359.971 -441.971 1477.839 5242.102
Jan-17 3146 3359.971 -213.971 1477.838 5242.103
Nave
MONTH Forecast LCI UCI 23.78%%
1 3433.676 1509.329 5358.024
2 3433.676 1509.329 5358.024
3 3433.676 1509.328 5358.025
Double
Exp
19.85%
BEST
Exp MLR
17.19%
MAPE 27.96%
Confidence of Forecasting
Time Forecast LCI UCI
1 10614.83 5336.514 15893.14 Nave
23.78%%
Group A2
Confidence of Validation Forecast BEST
MONTH Actual Forecast Error LCI UCI Holts
Feb-16 162 167.9319 -5.93188 36.84671 299.0171
Mar-16 187 168.8884 18.11159 34.38071 303.3961 24.222%
Apr-16 279 169.8449 109.1551 31.08646 308.6034
May-16 315 170.8015 144.1985 26.92989 314.673
Jun-16 251 171.758 79.24201 21.89604 321.6199 Ensemble MLR
Jul-16 268 172.7145 95.28548 15.98686 329.4422
Aug-16 201 173.671 27.32895 9.217915 338.1242 24.41% 26.576%
Sep-16
Oct-16
173
226
174.6276
175.5841
-1.62757
50.4159
1.615005
-6.78925
347.6401
357.9575
MAPE
Nov-16 154 176.5406 -22.5406 -15.9583 369.0396
Dec-16 129 177.4972 -48.4972 -25.8539 380.8483
Jan-17 131 178.4537 -47.4537 -36.4381 393.3454
Neural Nave
Forecast Prediction Interval Lower Prediction Interval Higher
189.0603105 141.1370633 313.9849354 24.76% 45.35%
185.8776552 137.9544079 310.80228
182.6949999 134.7717526 307.6196247
BEST
Exponential
18.29%
MAPE
Mvg Avg Nave
19.59% 33.59%
Moving Avg (2)
32.41%
BEST
Double
MLR
Exponential
29.86%
30.76
MAPE
Neural Nave
30.29% 72.29%
Group A2
Moving Avg (4) BEST
16.96%
Exponential MLR
Confidence of Forecasting 17.22 MAPE 25.70%
MAPE
Nave MLR
13.88% 8.87%
MLR
7.88%
BEST MAPE
Holts
Nave
Winter
13.62%
4.78%
MLR
BEST
38.28%
MAPE
Holts
Nave
Winter
95.60%
46.29%
Group A2
MLR BEST
35.59%
Exponential Nave
42.12% 77.71%
MAPE
BEST MAPE
Double
Nave
exp
35.86%
17.52%
Factors Affecting Sales Forecast
Use it as a roll forward model to best train the data set and
the model. Keep a short forecasting horizon of 1quarter.