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The man who would reimagine Pakistan

Published in Nov-Dec 2016

By Mamun M. Adil

Muhammad Azfar Ahsan, CEO, Nutshell Forum, in profile.

If you attend corporate or HR conferences on a regular basis, the chances are that you will recognise Muhammad Azfar
Ahsan. That is because Ahsan is CEO and Founder of Nutshell Forum, one of Pakistans prominent conference management
companies.

When I first spoke to Ahsan to schedule an interview, I asked him for a short profile. Going through it, I noted that it was
replete with buzzwords such as change activist, entrepreneur and thought leader. This led me to think I was going to
meet someone who would be rather hyperactive and effusive in nature and more than a little full of himself.

However, when I met him at the Aurora offices, I was more than a little surprised. Wearing a crisp navy blue shalwar
kameez and waistcoat, with Peshawari chappals (a uniform of sorts that he has set for himself I am told by those in the
know, not to mention his photos on Facebook with the whos who of the corporate world, HR specialists and politicians),
Ahsan wasnt particularly hyper, although he professed to be several times during the interview; in fact, one could even
term him as rather sedate. He apologised for being late, saying that his tardiness was due to a traffic jam, and is not his
style.

As for being full of himself, he was, in fact, less than a little forthcoming when it came to answering questions about
himself, but more than happy to talk about his work or as he calls it, his passion. As it turned out, Ahsan has quite a few
passions.

I had very little capital, he remembers, but the economy was improving, and there was growth in the industry. We
delivered some outstanding events that have become brands in their own right, and we have been trendsetters in many
ways.

The first, of course, is his major area of work Nutshell Forum, an event management company which he says is the
market leader in the field. His journey into event management seems to be a fairly simple one. After graduating from the
University of Karachi, he held a total of three jobs; the first was at a subsidiary of Blazon Advertising as Marketing Manager;
the second, as Assistant Vice President Marketing at Pathfinder Group (I worked with Ikram Sehgal who is like a father to
me), followed by a stint at Jubilee General Insurance (it was a big company, but they werent very aggressive at the
time).

Each of these jobs lasted approximately a year, after which Ahsan formed Nutshell to pursue his passion. He began the
organisation with a single desk, which was broken, a computer, a printer and a fax machine.

I had very little capital, he remembers, but the economy was improving, and there was growth in the industry. We
delivered some outstanding events that have become brands in their own right, and we have been trendsetters in many
ways.

The journey was not easy, especially given the fact that during the mid-2000s, there were countless strikes that brought
Karachi to a halt at the last minute and led to the cancellation of many of Nutshells events.

Despite this, Ahsan persevered. This was a learning experience and despite huge cash flow issues we maintained
continuity.

Since then, Nutshell Forum has organised more than 400 national and international conferences, seminars and training
workshops in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Dubai, Singapore and Bahrain since its inception in 2003. Many of these are now annual
events, including the Asia Management Conclave, Pakistans biggest corporate conference, held in Lahore; The Leaders
Summit, the biggest leaders conference in Pakistan in Islamabad, and the annual Women Leadership Summit which
began last year.

Ahsan says that people refer to him as the guru of conferences in Pakistan although he is quick to add that I am still a
student of conference management and points out that compared to conferences that are held overseas, Pakistan has a
long way to go.

For Ahsan, this book is a vehicle that will highlight the positive aspects of Pakistan he is very patriotic (we are nothing
without Pakistan... and my tagline is Prosperous Pakistan) and believes that Pakistan has loads of untapped potential,
and the book will highlight this and in the process, help change the narrative of Pakistan abroad."

While conferences and events are Ahsans bread and butter, he has recently embarked on the publishing of a book about
Pakistan on the lines of Reimagining Japan: The Quest for a Future That Works and Reimagining India: Unlocking the
Potential of Asias Next Superpower.
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A friend gave me Reimagining India in 2014, which highlighted the true potential of India; I thought it was a lovely book. I
was in India at the time, and the next day, I met one of my dear friends Adil Zainulbhai, Chairman of Mckinsey India, whom
I consider my older brother; he mentioned the book and autographed my copy and we discussed it at length. I spoke with
another friend at Harvard, and slowly the book began to take shape.

The book is now underway, and will include 15 essays from Pakistani writers, 40 essays by Global CEOs of MNCs, world
leaders, writers, cultural luminaries, foreign policy experts and members of the academia; there are chances that Prince
Charles may also write for the book.

For Ahsan, this book is a vehicle that will highlight the positive aspects of Pakistan he is very patriotic (we are nothing
without Pakistan... and my tagline is Prosperous Pakistan) and believes that Pakistan has loads of untapped potential,
and the book will highlight this and in the process, help change the narrative of Pakistan abroad.

In Ahsans opinion people lobby for their countries but no one lobbies for Pakistan a country that is everything for us.

Such is his passion for Pakistan that he points out that he has travelled the world extensively, including a state visit to
Washington and that although he has had offers to work abroad he will not consider them. This is mainly due to his love
for Pakistan as well as the fact that he believes that he will always be treated as a second rate citizen elsewhere.

Our mountains and beaches are comparable to the best in the world, we have flavour in our fruit and although their
export rates are low, the potential, like everything else in our country is very high, he says.

Given Ahsans line of work, and the fact that he frequently refers to many prominent industry people as close friends, it is
clear that he has exceptional people skills. He does, to an extent, admit to having these, albeit a little hesitantly, but
mentions that he loves meeting people (I used to go to three dinners in one night), but has become less sociable of late
(Someone told me that you dont go anywhere but people come to you). He traces this zest for socialising to his days as
a student at St Patricks, which had a diverse student body, and led him to meet and interact with people from different
neighbourhoods of Karachi.

Although he is not very forthcoming when it comes to talking about personal facets of his life, he does admit to having a
passion for music, and is a fan of Lata Mangeshkar (I spoke to her once and we ended up in tears), Mohammed Rafi,
Abida Parveen, Nayyara Noor and Habib Wali Mohammed.

Given his patriotism and zest for improving the country, not to mention the fact that he rubs shoulders with people from
the political arena regularly, as is apparent from his Facebook feed, I ask Ahsan whether or not he will venture into politics
as our conversation comes to a close.

Yes and no, he replies with a smile. I am not surprised by this, given that Ahsan clearly likes to be a bit of an enigma, and
keeps his cards close to his chest.

Mamun M. Adil is Manager, Business Development and Research, DAWN.

mamun.adil@gmail.com

Army chiefs visit

Editorial | Published about 13 hours ago

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SOME calm has returned to the Kurram Agency town of Parachinar after more than a week of protests. The local populace,
already on edge after multiple deadly terrorist attacks earlier this year, was furious at the security lapse that allowed yet
more devastation on June 23 when twin bombings at a marketplace claimed over 70 lives. The fact that not a single senior
official visited the area to acknowledge their suffering and condole with them in the first several days only compounded
the fury and resentment. That to a certain extent has been assuaged by the visit of the army chief on Friday. Gen Qamar
Bajwa met the tribal elders, expressed his grief over the loss of life and lent an ear to concerns expressed by the people.
Giving assurances that security measures would be ramped up in the town, the COAS also removed the FC commandant in
Parachinar. That had been a key demand of the protesters, who alleged that FC personnel had fired on a group of mourners
venting their rage over the repeated attacks,

The visit by a senior state official was the need of the hour to convey a sense of security to a traumatised populace, and
assure them they are not fighting this battle alone. That the countrys prime minister did not deign to do so is deserving of
criticism. At the same time, having endured so much violence, the area residents want to be directly involved in the
arrangements for their security. Hence their demand that locals be inducted into the FC, as was the case until the 1980s, is
one that merits serious consideration. While a military presence remains necessary for now given that pockets of militancy
still remain in Fata, community policing is known to be very effective at the grass-roots level where inimical elements from
outside can find vulnerabilities. Moreover, Parachinar, with its majority Shia population living alongside Sunni tribes, has a
long history of sectarian violence fuelled by the proliferation of violent extremist groups in Fata and the spillover effect of
the Afghan jihad. While there have been a number of peace accords between Sunni and Shia tribes in Parachinar, the town
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and its surrounding areas remain a powder keg. Unlike major urban centres, where sectarian divides are subsumed in a
multidimensional reality, in this part of Pakistan, they are front and centre. Even a spark could light a major conflagration.

Published in Dawn, July 2nd, 2017

PPPs questionable actions

Editorial | Published about 13 hours ago

TWO decisions have underlined yet again the utter dysfunction, and perhaps manoeuvring, at the heart of governance in
Sindh. As reported in this newspaper yesterday, the Sindh government has taken back the authority it had delegated to the
inspector general of police to appoint senior police officers in the province. In addition, the Sindh cabinet has unanimously
endorsed a repeal of the National Accountability Ordinance of 1999 to be taken up in the next session of the provincial
assembly. Two very different decisions, but a common, wretched theme: the PPP government in Sindh exists to protect
itself and advance its own interest at the expense of the public. The decision to strip IGP A.D. Khowaja of his authority to
control senior police transfers and postings is a straightforward move to muzzle the independent-minded police chief. Yet,
the matter is about more than the struggle between Mr Khowaja and the Sindh government: why should the Sindh
government have the authority to determine senior police postings and transfers? If there is a good democratic and
institutional reason for a political government to have that power, it has yet to be made known.

The unanimous cabinet decision to repeal the NAB ordinance is also a transparent move at self-preservation. The
accountability process is undoubtedly flawed and few would argue that the current system does not need to be
fundamentally overhauled. But what the Sindh cabinet has approved is a very different plan: a straightforward repeal of
the 1999 ordinance to be followed by what is likely to be a desultory and long-winding road towards replacement. In that
lengthy intervening period, will accountability stand effectively suspended in the province? With an election on the
horizon, it is possible the PPP is trying to prevent its political plans in Sindh from being disrupted by forces at the centre
operating under the guise of accountability. But the right democratic response to that possibility would be to present a
meaningful alternative to the existing accountability structure. In the absence of any alternative, it can be assumed that the
PPP in Sindh prefers no accountability to a flawed exercise.

The real victims of both moves will inevitably be the people of Sindh. A police force that is under the control of a political
leadership and a political leadership that does not face the possibility of accountability are a recipe for further disaster. The
PPP will try and paper over the effects with familiar election-year rhetoric and promises of great change. But Sindh has now
been governed by the PPP for nine consecutive years. While miracles were not expected given the scale of the
socioeconomic challenges, hardly anyone will say that the province is even on the road to positive change. Once again, the
PPP in Sindh is proving that it exists to protect and serve itself.

Published in Dawn, July 2nd, 2017

Setback to peace

S. Mudassir Ali Shah | Published about 13 hours ago

SIX months into his tenure, US President Donald Trumps strategy for ending the war in Afghanistan remains crafty and
cagey. In a recent tweet, he waxed lyrical about American service members. The president demonstrated great pride in
being commander-in-chief of the US army. But the way he handles Americas colossal war machine and deploys men and
women in uniform to conflict zones tells a conflicting story.

Trump has given his defence secretary Jim Mattis carte blanche to set troop levels in Afghanistan. Glossing over his
responsibility to protect American soldiers, and ignoring disagreements within his administration, the president
empowered Mattis to ramp up troop levels in the country from the current 8,800 to more than 14,000. The crafty move has
paved the ground for Nato commander John Nicholsons proposal going forward.

Although the US is far from winning the war, as acknowledged by the defence secretary and many others, pouring more
troops into combat represents a callous disregard for the safety of US and Afghan security personnel. The long-anticipated
policy does not explain how the bleak security situation will be turned around. It is apparent that no corrective action is
being applied to the rotten political system and economic crisis in Afghanistan.

One had hoped that Trump would learn from his predecessors flip-flop on ending Americas longest military campaign, but
he did not. Instead, he went for even deeper involvement in a war that has already resulted in the loss of thousands of
American and Afghan lives and cost billions of dollars. Dismissive as he may be of Barack Obamas micromanagement of the
mission, he is expanding a conflict that continues to fuel instability in a region haunted by terrorism.

Pouring more troops into Afghanistan will not work.

As Trump continues to shy away from tackling the challenge head on, will the new US strategy succeed? Odds are that it
will fall flat on its face, because American public opinion has gradually swung against what was previously billed as a good
war. Additionally, there has been no constructive debate on the case for a fresh surge that may not wrest the battlefield
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momentum from the Afghan Taliban and the militant Islamic State group. Both have lately made more territorial gains in
different parts of the benighted country.

Worse still, the Trump team has been reticent on the subject of a viable political settlement with the Taliban, improving
governance, combating endemic corruption in Afghan institutions, consolidating the economy and taking Afghanistans
neighbours on board on how to wrap up the war. Unilateral plans are not going to come to fruition in a country where
120,000 international troops could not vanquish the insurgency some years ago.

Meanwhile, the slot of US Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan has fallen vacant. Now that Laurel Miller has
gone, there is no indication of any diplomat with policymaking experience filling the key position. Planned staff cuts in the
State Department, where several offices are vacant at the moment, suggest relations between the estranged neighbours
will continue to be on the rocks.

Trump may delegate authority to his defence secretary to deal with troop levels, but he cannot be allowed to escape blame
for failure. If the gambit does not succeed, who will be the fall guy? The buck will eventually stop with the commander-in-
chief, not the Pentagon chief. What is Trump trying to achieve? And mission creep is unlikely to help Afghan security forces
keep the emboldened militants at bay.

For this new tactical shift to be successful, the US will have to forge a more efficient regional approach, including
cooperation from Pakistan. Many in Washington and Kabul accuse Islamabad of aiding the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani
network. At the same time, Afghanistans political institutions have to be bolstered as well, a long-drawn-out process that
needs to be spearheaded by the White House and the State Department, not the Pentagon.

To ensure Pakistans support for a political solution in Afghanistan, the US will have to convince Islamabad and New Delhi
to initiate a substantive dialogue to resolve their long-running disputes. Pakistans soft corner for the Afghan Taliban is
ostensibly aimed at offseting growing Kabul-Delhi links. Revival of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group would be a giant
stride towards aligning regional efforts for stability in Afghanistan.

If regional actors are sidelined, the Resolute Support Mission will be in trouble. A change for the better will not come about
in the absence of a cohesive vision for reconciliation. For now, the lack of commitment to a meaningful regional peace push
continues to cast doubt on the validity of the surge, an option that failed under Obama.

The writer is a freelance journalist based in Peshawar.

Published in Dawn, July 2nd, 2017

Its Chinas turn

Muhammad Amir Rana | Published about 13 hours ago

DESPITE billions of dollars spent and diverse efforts made, including multiple military campaigns, political strategies and
reconciliation efforts, peace and stability in Afghanistan remain a distant dream. Its more than one and a half decades that
the world has been trying to solve the Afghanistan puzzle but in vain. Now China has entered the theatre, probably with a
new framework of conflict management.

Rightly or wrongly, Pakistan is considered crucial to achieving peace and stability in Afghanistan. Pakistan, too, does not
attempt to dispel the impression, due to some strategic advantages (invisible to ordinary Pakistanis) it sees in Afghanistan.
This has strengthened the notion that the passage of peace in Afghanistan passes through Islamabad.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was in Islamabad recently in an attempt to reduce the trust deficit between Afghanistan
and Pakistan. While regional security and stability are among the foremost prerequisites for the Chinese connectivity
dream of One Belt One Road (OBOR), peace and stability in Afghanistan are also vital for Chinas internal security. The US
would probably welcome any move that shares its burden in Afghanistan, including of failures.

Previously, China avoided playing an assertive role in Afghanistan despite its strong desire to see peace prevail in the
country. Though Beijing made a few backchannel efforts to convince the Afghan Taliban to become part of the dialogue
process, it avoided taking a lead role in the Quadrilateral Coordination Group that also included the US, Afghanistan and
Pakistan. After the quadrilateral peace process broke down, China partnered with Russia to create space for another
attempt at peace in Afghanistan. The fate of this initiative remains unclear.

Afghanistan is a test case for China as it assumes a bigger role in resolving regional disputes.

Recently, China has taken a rare and bold diplomatic step and brokered a deal between Pakistan and Afghanistan to
normalise their bilateral relationship that is important for any peace initiative in the region. China helped the two countries
in the establishment of a bilateral crisis management mechanism to avoid a complete breakdown in communication.

Many see it as a desperate move by China for achieving regional stability. One cannot ignore the fact that the countrys
growing diplomatic and political stature in the world requires it to assume a more effective role in resolving regional and
international disputes. Afghanistan is a test case for China for it entails diverse internal, regional and international conflict
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dynamics. To start with, removing the deep-seated mistrust between Afghanistan and Pakistan, particularly when seen in
the context of India, would not be an easy task for China.

On the one hand, China and Pakistan are strategic and economic allies in regional and international politics, and on the
other, Afghanistan has also signed a strategic partnership agreement with China. But Afghanistan is still far from becoming
a functional state. It has also maintained a close association with India, which has thus far not appreciated China-led
regional connectivity initiatives including CPEC.

However, it is a big achievement that Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to resume a bilateral normalisation process for
which a trilateral China-Afghanistan-Pakistan foreign minister-level dialogue forum has been established. The
trilateral forum has also asked the Afghan Taliban to join the Afghan reconciliation process.

Reiterating the earlier position of the insurgents, the Taliban head Maulvi Haibatullah Akhundzadah in his annual message
demanded the complete evacuation of Nato troops from Afghanistan as a condition for peace talks. It is, however, not
known what stance the Taliban adopted in recent backdoor interactions. Even if the Taliban shura has given any indication
for peace talks to resume, it would be difficult for them to develop a consensus among their rank and file. The recent surge
in terrorist attacks in Afghanistan is also seen as an attempt by anti-talks Taliban commanders to increase pressure on
Kabul to such a level that the government itself declines to initiate talks.

There are other impediments too, including the worsening Afghan political crisis, decreasing morale of the Afghan security
forces and competing positions of international stakeholders in the peace process. Even as China and Russia are trying to
convince Kabul to restart the reconciliation process with the Taliban, the US is preparing a troop surge in Afghanistan which
indicates that the new administration is thinking along the lines of defeating the Taliban militarily. Another critical issue is
the emerging US-India strategic partnership on regional security issues, which will encourage India to exploit the situation
in Afghanistan against Pakistan and even China.

Pakistans dilemma is that over the decades the world has learned to see the country through the prism of Afghanistan. On
the other hand, Pakistans Arab friends have high expectations from the country mainly in terms of military cooperation.
However, they have not taken any initiative to ease Pakistans diplomatic burden by offering any mediation between the
two countries.

Afghanistan and Pakistan both know how to improve their bilateral relationship but sadly they are trapped in a vicious cycle
of mutual mistrust. They have huge potential for trade and economic cooperation including regional connectivity through
CPEC and routes with Central Asia. At one point in time, the two countries were planning to develop a multilayered security
cooperation mechanism, but the forces of status quo did not let it materialise. Both sides have complaints about alleged
cross-border terrorist sanctuaries. Failing to achieve bilateral cooperation on border security, Pakistan is investing a lot in
border management. But without Afghan cooperation, Pakistan will find it difficult to secure its border with Afghanistan
from militants incursions.

Can China help the two countries develop such cooperation? Pakistan and Afghanistan in the past had discussed prospects
for intelligence sharing and mechanisms for border security; some workable modalities were also formed. In the next
phase, China may facilitate such cooperation between the two countries. The prospects of joint security operations against
terrorists in border regions can also be explored, especially in the context of the capabilities of the Afghan security forces.

The writer is a security analyst.

Published in Dawn, July 2nd, 2017

The strangest plot

Cyril Almeida | Published about 13 hours ago

ASSUME theyre right. The JIT isnt about corruption. The investigation is just a vehicle to oust Nawaz. Old tricks adapted
for new times.

Fine.

We can go further. They the permanent establishment, the boys, whomever want to oust Nawaz because of what
Nawaz represents and because of what Nawaz wants to do. What he represents is danger, a popular politician from Punjab
who dislikes and is disliked by the boys. What he wants to do is dangerous: rid us of proxies and focus on regional
connectivity and trade.

The timing is convenient, just ahead of an election which Nawaz looks like he can win. Get him now and youve got him for
good shut out from the next election and then on for the next five years at least. For all its weaknesses, the mere
existence of an independent prime ministers office is a potential threat because its impossible to fully control.

By then Nawaz would be an old man and the next generation ready to take over. If thats the game, the rest of us are all
just passengers along for the ride. The boys will do what the boys think they need to do. Nawaz and co will fight until they
can or up to the point they think its worth it. But while they fight their wars and decide our fate, at least we can ask: has
Nawaz really posed a threat? Because all of it why theyve wanted to oust him and why they still need to oust him
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rests on the premise that Nawaz is a danger and his agenda dangerous. And that twin belief could just be megalomania on
one side Nawazs and miscalculation on the other, the boys. Start with the danger that Nawaz the Punjabi politician is
supposed to embody. When he calls, Punjab responds. But winning elections doesnt necessarily filter down to policy fights.
When it comes to picking sides between Nawaz and the boys, most of Punjab is probably where it has mostly been:
wanting the two to just get along. Sure, Punjab will vote for Nawaz, but will Punjab fight for Nawaz? Especially if the
opponent is the boys? Probably not. Therere many reasons historical and particular to Punjab for that, but theres one
specific to Nawaz too: for all his electoral success, he hasnt built a formidable party machine dedicated to serving his
agenda. The name Nawaz may mean votes in the bank, but there is no awe, great love or terrible fear. Nothing that
approaches what the other side has. Real as Nawazs electoral support may be, it cant be weaponised because its core is
soft. Its good enough to win elections, not enough to stand on and challenge the gods. What winning elections does
though is win you a seat at the table. From there, even if your electoral base is soft, you can try and ram through policy
changes. Thats the second part: the dangerous Nawaz agenda. For all its weaknesses, the mere existence of an
independent prime ministers office is a potential threat because its impossible to fully control. You cant stop a prime
minister from dreaming; you cant stop his office from plotting; and because of the constraints of nominal democracy, you
cant immediately swat away all prime ministerial ideas and initiatives. But then just have a look at Nawazs record this
term.

Forget the bits where hes been cut down, shut down or shoved aside. That was inevitable. Its not like the other side was
ever going to just surrender policy control. The third term was the biggest opening Nawaz has ever had or arguably ever
will and its littered with rookie mistakes and unforced errors. He refused to instal a foreign minister and only reluctantly
installed a part-time defence minister. He chose to put Musharraf on trial instead of signing a trade deal with Congress
ahead of the Indian election. He insisted on talking to the Taliban for too long, allowing the boys to switch the militancy
narrative themselves. He tried to talk to Modi but wasnt able to terror-proof dialogue. After Kashmir erupted, hes
remained stuck in the same incongruous gear. On Afghanistan, there is not a single idea or initiative that has emerged
not even at the level of theory.

CPEC is the great new arrival, but it was dreamt up by the Chinese and presented to us. The more damning thing is the
lopsidedness of the loans and investments 75 per cent dedicated to addressing the electricity deficit, a waste of a
historic opportunity. Round and round you can go, and even adjusting for all that Nawaz has been thwarted in doing and all
that hes been shut down on, theres just no sign of the great big policy threat that he is supposed to be. More obvious is
the opposite: keeping him in place may be better than chucking him out. The fillip hell get from another election win wont
exceed the political capital he got after 2013. Next time round, with a new US approach in Afghanistan and a confident
Modi striding towards re-election, therell be even less space for a Nawaz doctrine regionally. Economic take-off is certainly
not imminent, meaning he wont suddenly surge to massive popularity around 2020 or so. And most of all, the boys have
figured out how to contain him something theyd have to learn anew with Imran. And yet the PML-N remains convinced:
the aim is to oust Nawaz because of the threat he is and the threat his agenda is. They may be right. Or between
megalomania and miscalculation may lie our fate yet again.

The writer is a member of staff.

cyril.a@gmail.com