8/29/2016 DoestheDisappearanceofSeaIceMatter?

TheNewYorkTimes

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Magazine

DoestheDisappearanceofSeaIce
Matter?
ByJONGERTNER JULY29,2016

Everymonth,theNationalSnowandIceDataCenterinBoulder,Colo.,putsouta
newsreleaseabouthowmuchiceisfloatingonthecoldseasatthetopofthe
world.Thosewhofollowthisobscurebitofnewswillknowthatlastmonth
markedthelowestextentofArcticseaiceonrecordforJune,goingbacktothe
beginningofsatelliteobservationsinthelate1970s.Andsummerstillhasafew
monthstogo.ArcticseaicetypicallyshrinksuntilmidSeptember,whendarker
nightsandcoldertemperaturescome,andtheicecoverbeginstoexpandagain.
WedontyetknowiftheapproachingyearlyminimumthisSeptemberwillbethe
historicallow,butitseemsontracktopossiblymatch,orevenexceed,the
previousrecordminimum,whichoccurredin2012.NathanKurtz,aNASA
researcherwhodidanaerialsurveyoftheicecoverinearlyJuly,toldmerecently,
ItsbeenaverywarmyearintheArctic.

ThescientistswhostudyiceintheArctictendtofallintooneoftwo
professionalcamps.Thefirstconsistsofresearcherswhostudylandice,whichis
theicethatflowsinthemountainglaciersofnorthernCanadaandEuropeorthe
icethatslockedwithinthevastfrozensheetthatcoversabout80percentof
Greenland.Theresanobvious,realworldimperativetothisresearch:As
temperaturesclimbandasarcticglaciersfractureandmelt,waterpoursoffthe
landandintotheoceansandsealevelsrise.Ifevenathirdoftheicecovering
Greenlandweretomelt,forinstance,itwouldraiseoceansbyaboutsevenfeet.
(Werenotnearthatpointyet.)Thedatathesescientistscollectcanhelp
computermodelsbecomemoreaccurate.That,inturn,mayhelpuspredicthow
quicklysealevelscouldriseinthenext100years.

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8/29/2016 DoestheDisappearanceofSeaIceMatter?TheNewYorkTimes

Studyingseaiceisanaltogetherdifferentpursuit.Technically,theterm
referstoicethatgrowsontopofsaltywaterexposedtoextremecold
temperaturesforalongtime.Oceanographersuseacompellingandarcane
vocabularytodescribethisprocess.Seaicebeginsastiny,needleshapedcrystals,
aboutatenthofaninchlong,knownasfrazil.Dependingonthemarine
conditions,frazilcongealsintopancakeiceorgreaseice(termsthatbasically
capturewhattheylooklike)andeventuallyfusesintothick,floatingfrozen
sheets.Inrecentyears,astheearthhasenduredthewarmestannual
temperaturesonrecord,theextentofseaicearoundthesoutherncontinentof
Antarcticahasincreasedslightly,forreasonsprobablyrelatingtonaturalclimate
variability.ButtheicethattypicallycoverstheNorthPoleandsurroundingareas
oftheArctichasdeclineddrastically.InApril,Iaccompaniedagroupof
researchersontheirwaytonortheastGreenland.Theyweregluedtotheaircraft
windowsontheapproachtotheislandscoast,watchingthedarkseastretch
belowformileaftermilewhenonlyafewdecadesagoitwasblanketedbyawhite,
frozensheet.Thetrapezoidalplatesoffloatingseaicefinallybecamevisibleonly
closetoland,asathincoldcrustholdingfasttotheGreenlandshore.Whereis
alltheice?aNASAprojectmanagernamedJohnWoodsasked.

TheArcticisnowwarmingtwotothreetimesfasterthantherestofthe
world,aphenomenonscientistshavedescribedasArcticamplification.One
anecdotalmeasureofamplificationismadepossiblebytheaccountsofship
captainsfromcenturiesago,whokeptmeticulousjournalsduringanerainwhich
theabundantnorthernicecouldtrapaboatformonthsandthepressureof
collidingfloesmightcrackareinforcedwoodenkeellikeathinshellednut.We
nowknow,forinstance,theArcticseaicenearSiberiathatfatallytrappedthe
U.S.S.Jeannettein1879,thesubjectofHamptonSidessrecentbestsellingbook,
isnolongerathreatthosearenowicefreewaters.Wealsoknowthatthe
NorthwestPassage,theperilous,icechokedroutefromtheAtlantictothePacific
throughNorthernCanada,isnavigabletoday.InAugust,alargeluxurycruise
ship,the820footCrystalSerenity,willbecomethefirstsuchvesseltosail
throughthepassage,carrying1,000tourists.Eachpaid$22,000fortheprivilege.
Thecruisesoldoutinthreeweeks.

Satelliteandairborneobservations,ofcourse,offerthemostprecisewayto
determinethedeclineofseaice.JaquelineRichterMenge,oftheU.S.Army
CorpsofEngineersColdRegionsResearchandEngineeringLaboratoryinNew

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Hampshire,toldmethattheoverallrateofdeclineisabout13percentper
decadesince1979.Theresanotherwaytovisualizethat,shesaid:Overthepast
30yearsorso,theArctichaslostroughly50percentofitscoverofseaice,an
areaequivalenttomorethanhalftheareaofthecontinentalUnitedStates.And
whaticeremainshasgrownthinner.Thatmeansthevolumeoficeisdecreasing
too.Ifyoutakeintoaccountthethickness,JenniferFrancis,aRutgers
Universityscientist,toldme,itsmoreliketwothirdsoftheicehasbeenlost.
Sheadded,Thisisprettymuchabadnewsstory.

Inthevastandchaoticclimatesystemsthatgovernouratmosphereand
oceans,makingsenseofhowonechangediminishedseaiceaffectsplacesor
peoplethousandsofmilesawayisataskofsuchextraordinarycomplexitythatit
strainseventhemostsophisticatedsupercomputers.Nevertheless,whatitmeans
tobeenteringaneraofnewseaiceminimumsisoneofthebigscientific
questionsofthemoment.Unliketheiceonland,seaice,whichderivesfromthe
oceanitself,hasnodirectimpactonsealevels,soitsmeltingposesnothreatof
coastalflooding.Ontheotherhand,arecentgroupofscientificpaperssuggests
thatthesteadyretreatofseaicemayhavearesidualeffectonallsortsofother
things,liketheicecoveringGreenlandorstormsinNewEngland.

Astheicerecedes,exposingtheoceanwatersbeneathit,theregionssurface
appearancechanges.Reducedicecovermeansmoreopenoceanwater,which
lowersthereflectivitythesocalledalbedooftheArctic,whichmeansthat
thedarkersurfaceabsorbsmoresolarenergyandlessofitbouncesbackinto
space.Afeedbackloopensues.Moreseaiceislost,moreenergyisabsorbedby
theoceans,andthisinturncanleadtolessenedorthinnericethefollowingyear
aswellaswarmertemperatures.Theprocesscancontinue,untiltheamplifying
effectsultimatelyleavetheArcticicefreeinsummer.

Inthepastyearorso,scientistshavebeguntoconsiderwhetherthechanges
inseaiceareinfluencingmoistureandatmosphericconditionsintheregion,too.
Francissaystherenowappearstobeaconnectionbetweenareductionofseaice
andthemorefrequentcreationofwhatareknownasatmosphericblocks
weatherpatternsthatcandrawwarmairtounusuallyhighnorthernlatitudesfor
longperiodsoftime.Iftheblockisintherightplace,itcanbringalotofthat
heatandmoistureintoonesideoranotherofGreenlandandcontributetoalotof
melt,shetoldme.AndthatsexactlywhathappenedthispastApril.Therewasa

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hugestrongblockthere,whichbroughtalotofverywarmairupoverthe
Greenlandicesheet.LargepartsoftheGreenlandicesheet,whicharecentstudy
notedhaslostonetrilliontonsoficebetween2011and2014,experienceda
remarkablyearlythaw.SomeoftheextremewarmthreappearedinJune,too,
whenIvisitedGreenlandforasecondtimethisyear.Nuuk,thecountryscapital,
reached75degreesonJune9.Thatwas30degreesaboveaverage.Itwaswarmer
therethaninNewYorkCity.

Anotherrecentpaper,byMarcoTedescoofColumbiaUniversitysLamont
DohertyEarthObservatory,largelyaccordswithFrancisshypothesisthat
changesinthehighArcticarehavingseriousweatherimpactsfarthersouth:
Tedescopointedtoanatmosphericblockthatresultedinunusuallywarm
temperaturesin2015overnorthernGreenland,whichinturnledtoanextensive
meltontheicesheet.Overthepastthreeyears,IveinterviewedTedescoa
numberoftimes:inhisuniversityclassroomovercoffeeontheUpperWestSide
ofManhattanevenonahotelverandainGreenlandthatoverlookedabay
clutteredwithicebergs.HeviewstheArcticasasystemsengineerwould.He
recentlytoldmehehasbeentryingtoclosetheloopandconnectthe
exceedinglycomplexinteractionsthatdrivethenorthernclimatesystem,which
includesitsseaice,atmosphereandoceancirculations,andlandice.Hethinkshe
maybegettingcloser.Tedescotoldmewecantyetquantifythelinkbetweensea
icelossandlandiceloss.Heisconvinced,however,thattheseunusualwarming
eventsinGreenlandcreaterippleeffectsthatmayextendforyears.Duringwarm
spells,forinstance,thetoplayerofGreenlandssurfacemeltsandbecause
meltwaterislessreflectivethaniceorfreshsnowandabsorbsmoresolarenergy,
thatinturnleadstomoremelting.Butevenwhenthemeltwaterrefreezes,
Tedescosaid,thenewgrainsoficeseemtobepermanentlyalteredinastructural
waythatmakesthemmorevulnerabletofuturemelting.Youmighthavea
warmweathereventthatimpactsthingsforafewweeks,Tedescosaid,butthat
createsamemoryintheicethatmightcreateimpactsforafewyears.Hecalled
thispreconditioning.Anotherwaytothinkofitisthatthemeltthatisnow
happeningmorefrequentlyinGreenland(andinlateJuly,theislandenduredyet
anotherperiodofextremewarmweather)maybepreconditioningtheicesheet
forevenmoremeltinginthefuture.

Thescienceofchartingalltheseconnectionsifxoccursandymelts,what
happenstoz?isstillyoungitissonew,infact,thatnoneofithasyetbeen

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8/29/2016 DoestheDisappearanceofSeaIceMatter?TheNewYorkTimes

incorporatedintomodelsthattrytopredictsealevelrisesforlaterinthecentury.
YetitseemsincreasinglylikelythattheeffectsofawarmingArcticmaycreate
significantandunforeseenproblems.Francis,forone,believesthatsomerecent
extremeweatherevents,likethepatternofmassivesnowfallsinBostonin2015,
werebroughtonbyalterationsintheatmospherewhatshecallsanextreme
wavinessofthejetstreamakintowhatrecentlyaffectedGreenland.(The
wavinesscanbringwarmspellstocoldregionsorcoldspellstotemperate
regions.)Francisisntsure,however,whatwillhappeninthebiggerpicturewhen
Arcticicedeclinesevenfurther.ThelasttimetheArcticwasicefreewasprobably
125,000yearsago.MarikaHolland,aseniorscientistattheNationalCenterfor
AtmosphericResearchinBoulder,toldmethathercomputermodelsdontgive
usapreciseyearforwhenweshouldexpectanopensummeroceanintheArctic.
Therangeissomewhereinthemid21stcentury,shesaid,andtheres
uncertaintybecausetheressomenaturalvariabilityinthesystem.Butshe
remarkedthattheresnoindication,withglobalCO2levelsandtemperatures
steadilyrising,thatwewillsomehowbuckthedirectionofthetrend.The
outcomeisthesame,andtheoutcomeisbleak,inallofhercomputermodels.
Theyallgoicefreeinthefuture.

JonGertnerisatworkonabookaboutthepast,presentandfutureofGreenland.He
lastwroteforthemagazineaboutanAmericanislandthreatenedbyrisingsealevels.

2016TheNewYorkTimesCompany

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