S T A T I S T I C S

Teaching the Role of SPC

In Industrial Statistics
Base the future of a process
on statistical investigations of the past
by Ralph L. Liberatore

D
ISCUSSIONS CONCERNING STATIS-
tical process control (SPC) and indus-
trial statistics are often presented in
parochial termsthe two are treated
as separate disciplines, only related in
that each has statistical principles as
its foundation. It is important to understand that, in
practice, a much more interdependent relationship
should exist between SPC and industrial statistics.
This paper provides a model for understanding
and teaching the role of SPC as it relates to industri-
al statistics. Walter A. Shewhart provided the fol-
lowing definition of statistical control:
A phenomenon will be said to be controlled when,
through the use of past experience, we can predict, at
least within limits, how the phenomenon may be
expected to vary in the future. Here it is understood
that prediction within limits means that we can state,
at least approximately, the probability that the
observed phenomenon will fall within the given
limits.1
lar, this definition of industrial statistics involves all
manners of techniques including test of hypothesis,
regression, confidence intervals and analysis of
variance.
Industrial statistics attempts to provide answers
to several questions, such as:
Is there a relationship between variable A and
variable B in a manufacturing or service process?
What are the optimum machine settings?
Which of several processing methods is superior?
What portion of the total process variation can be
attributed to measurement variation?
Has the training program been successful?
The inherent tendency of processes to lack
FIGURE 1 The Three Population Types
Research population

Unfortunately, most manufacturing processes do Target population

not naturally gravitate toward statistical control
because the natural force of entropy adds variation

to processes.
Industrial statistics has been defined as the statis-
tical principles and procedures pertinent to both the
quality control of a given production process and to Sample population
research in general on quality problems.2 In particu-
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T E A C H I N G T H E R O L E O F S P C I N I N D U S T R I A L S TAT I S T I C S
statistical control has important implications for statis-
tical studiesparticularly where establishing the link
between SPC and industrial statistics is concerned.
This is predominantly relevant when some action is
necessary regarding the future of a process based on
statistical investigations of the past.
To understand these implications, you must first
recognize that several different types of data popula-
tions are involved.
Population distinctions
An investigator applies tools to a data set (a portion
of a population) and makes inferences about the gen-
eral population or other portions of the population
that are, at the time, not available for examination.
This limitation may be due to any number of con-
straints. For example, a population that is too large
can make portions impractical or too costly to study.
In the case of an ongoing process, the population of
interest extends into the future, across time. The
process output has not been created yet and is there-
fore unavailable for study.
Lets consider the population of interest, also called
the target population.3 This is the population about
which we wish to make inferences that will later serve
as the basis for action.
The interest in the target population may be passive
in nature. As such, any inference drawn through sta-
tistical study helps determine the action to be taken on
the population itself, not on the underlying cause sys-
tem that produced it.
For example, a recycling company may wish to
determine the chemical composition of a large inven-
tory of by-product held on site by a potential cus-
tomer. In this case, the target population would be the
on-site supply (finite target population). However,
there may not be any interest in the underlying cause
system that produced the by-product in the past or
will produce it in the future. The interest is in some
property(ies) of the existing supply of by-product;
therefore the action taken will regard that supply.
Alternatively, the interest regarding the target pop-
ulation may be more proactive in nature. It may go
beyond the current population in and of itself and
extend to the underlying cause system that has deter-
mined it. The goal is to provide inferences that serve
as a basis for action to regulate or intervene into the
cause system that produces the output and to predict
the nature of that output in the future.
In the recycling example, there may be a desire to
manipulate any or all of the inputs to the creation of
the by-product with a view toward producing a mate-
rial more easily processed in the future.
Whatever the purpose, be it passive or proactive,
the target population is the population about which
90 I J U L Y 2 0 0 1 I W W W . A S Q . O R G
FIGURE 2 The Descriptive Study
Sample population = Research population = Target population
we are intending to reach some conclusion that will
later result in action. A subset of the target population
can be called the research or sampled populationthe
portion of the target population available for study.4 If
the entire target population is available, then the tar-
get and research populations are the same.
A subset of the research population is the sample
population. It is the portion of the research population
that is actually studied. (See Figure 1 on p. 89.)
By examining how the population types relate, we
can determine the nature of the study to be conducted.
Statistical study distinctions
There are three types of statistical studies: descrip-
tive, enumerative and analytical.
The descriptive study. This statistical study is the
most basic because the sample, research and target
populations are the same. The entire population of
interest is available for study and has been studied.
This might occur when a steel supplier offers to sell,
at a reduced price, several coils of off-chemistry steel
that have been sitting in inventory. While the coils are
off their specifications, they may still fit some applica-
tions. To the potential buyer, however, it may be
important to know how many coils contain particular
elements. Because there are only 10 coils, each is test-
ed and the decision to buy is based on the findings.
In this case, the population of interest consists of the
10 coils. They comprise in totality the target popula-
tion in that the interest at the time does not extend to
any other coils. Further, the buyer may not be interest-
ed in the cause system that produced them. Why they
were off chemistry is not important, and the buyer is
not interested in predicting the future output of the
process based on this analysis of the past.
Because they are all available for study, the 10 coils
comprise the research population as well. The cus-
tomer is not prevented from selecting any one or more
 FIGURE 3 The Enumerative Study
Sample population Research population = Target population
Target population
Research population
Sample population
for study. Finally, they comprise the sample popula-
tion because all are selected for study. (See Figure 2.)
The enumerative study. This study is more involved
than the descriptive type. While the research popula-
tion and the target population are the same, the sample
population is a subset. Even though the entire popula-
tion is available for study, not all of it is studiedper-
haps the research population is too large, making a
complete study too costly and impractical.
The sample population is limited to being a subset
of the research population. As in the descriptive study,
the action to be taken may not involve the cause sys-
tem or the future output of the process but the exist-
ing output only. Because the inferences from the study
of the sample population will be extended to the
research population, randomization is used to assure
representativeness.
The case involving the recycling company is an
example of an enumerative study. Testing the entire
lot of by-product would not be practical; therefore, a
representative sample is chosen. It is important to
note, however, that the conclusions made and the
action that results must pertain only to the current
supply, whether tested or not, and not to any future
supply or the cause system that produces it. (See
Figure 3.)
The analytical study. In an analytical study, the
most complicated type of study, the entire target pop-
ulation is unavailable for study. This usually occurs
when the target population extends into the future. In
such cases, the investigator must look to the cause sys-
tem behind the output. It is this cause system that
links the process output available for study (research
population) with the process output not available for
study (target population).
Assume that a customer wishes to know the capa-
bility of a supplier s product to meet her needs.
Unless it is a one-time stock procurement that has the
FIGURE 4 The Analytical Study
=
Sample population Research population Target population
Research population
Target population
Sample population
entire purchase quantity available for study, the inter-
est extends to future product that is not yet available.
The commitment to purchase is for a process, not a
product. The customer is interested only in what has
been produced to the extent that it is predictive of
what will be produced.
Industrial statistics techniques such as hypothesis
testing or confidence intervals can make these infer-
ences. A sample population is selected from the
research population. If it is a random sample, the
inferences can be extended to the research population.
However, the same cannot be said for extending these
inferences to the target population. One cannot select
what is not available.
The strength of statistical inferences drawn from a
research population (created in the past or present)
and extended to a target population (to be created in
the future) rests on the control of the cause system
across the two periods. Herein lies the problem.
Statistical control is not an inherent process trait.
To conduct an analytical study on a process lacking
statistical control is risky (see Figure 4). The cause sys-
tem is statistically predictable only after it has been
reduced to common (random or chance) causes. The
use of control charts and the operation of SPC are the
means to achieve this state.
The operation of SPC
Shewhart maintained that changes in the cause sys-
tem of variation were due to the presence of assigna-
ble causes. In order to deal with the inherently erratic
nature of most production processes, he proposed
using the control chart to signal these changes.
Using control charts, the process owner can act on
the signal by attempting to identify the nature of the
assignable cause and then by taking countermeasures
to prevent or reduce the likelihood of future occur-
rences. Once the assignable causes have been elimi-
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FIGURE 5 The Sources of Variation FIGURE 6 Control Is Not an Inherent Procress

In a Manufacturing Process Trait

Assignable causes Assignable causes

Increase variability ?
Inputs
People Hamper
Equipment predictability
Materials Transformation Outputs
Methods
Environment
Measurement
systems e
Ti m

Common causes
Common causes

nated, the process is reduced to unassignable or com- Assignable causes belong to what Joseph Juran
mon causes and can be said to be in a state of statisti- termed the vital few. They are nonrandom and often
cal control. This functionobtaining controlis severe in nature, thereby affecting predictability. In
known as the operation of SPC.5 addition, the properties of a data set chosen at random
Most of the focus surrounding control charts deals from a given sampling frame cannot be extended to
with keeping a process in a state of statistical control any future sampling frames without greater threats to
after a known and statistically stable process popula- external validity (see Figure 6).
tion has already been achieved. The use of control Lloyd Nelson characterizes statistical analysis of data
charts to maintain that state by dealing with new subject to assignable causes as being purely conditional
assignable causes in the future has come to be known in natureconditional on the factors active at the time
as the operation of maintaining control. the data were collected.10 Ignoring this fact fills the
analysis with the difficulties associated with attempting
Assignable and common causes to forecast events for the future operation of a process
Processes that have never been subject to the opera- that might contain unknowable irregularities.
tion of obtaining control usually lack the quality of being Juran described common causes as the trivial
in statistical control.6 Therefore, assignable causes are many that are inherent to the system.11 The effects of
present in the cause system of variation and logically each of the common causes are frequent, small and
arise from the inputs to that process.
These inputs have been identified as
raw materials, equipment, people, FIGURE 7 Normalized p Chart
methods, environment and measure-
ment systems.7, 8 It is within these
New table and optical pyrometer
inputs that the operation of SPC 13
plays a pivotal role. With profession- Temperature sensor damaged and removed
als in all disciplines applying statisti- Table begins
cal techniques to make decisions slipping
9 Sensor replaced
about important processes, it is vital-
ly important that this concept be
Normalized p

Incoming valve bodies misaligned

understood.
5 Valve body
These inputs contribute to vari-
alignment
ability (as both assignable and corrected
common causes) due to the effects
1
of entropy that relentlessly and
inevitably drive processes to a state
of chaos.9 Because a process in a
state of chaos has an active assign- -3
able cause system, it lacks statisti- 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275
cal control (see Figure 5). Subgroup

92 I J U L Y 2 0 0 1 I W W W . A S Q . O R G
random through time. As a
result, the properties of a sample FIGURE 8 np Chart for Total Defectives
data set coming from such a
process can be expected to be 40
representative of the future of
that same process (at least in New cleaning procedure
some greater measure than 30
would be expected if assignable
causes were present). In the New component design
presence of only common caus-

np
20
es, one may claim that a stable
process population exists.
Examples 10

The following examples

demonstrate both the inherent
0
instabilities that exist in manu-
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
facturing processes as well as the
Subgroup
level of improvement that can be
achieved through the operation
of SPC in the form of stability
and variability reduction.
It is worth noting that none of FIGURE 9 Observation
these processes while in its nat-
PreSPC* Post SPC*
ural state was considered inade- 0.1
quate. On the contrary, they Manual feedback control algorithm
were important processes in suc-
cessful companies and in most 0.06
cases as good as if not better
than those of the competition.
X (in inches)

0.02
The process in Figure 7
reveals assignable causes in the
equipment and incoming mater- -0.02
ial categories. It is unlikely that
these were the first such occur- -0.06
rences in the history of the
process. They are a function of
the cause system, and as long as -0.1
the cause system remains 0 220 440 660 880 1,100
unchanged, it is reasonable to Observation
*Statistical process control
assume that a similar combina-
tion of conditions will recur
with similar results.
By taking action, the process owners intervened on ponent to one the supplier could consistently manu-
behalf of the process and, consequently, provided a facture was the countermeasure.
measure of equivalency between the research and tar- The final example, presented in Figure 9, provides a
get populations for any future analytical studies. look at the use of a process control technique
Figure 8 presents a process brought into statistical (although it is more of a process adjustment than a
control as a result of methods standardization and the countermeasure). In this case, there came a point
redesign of a critical component. While one could say when the majority of the remaining instability was
this redesign took action on the unassignable cause due to the inherent variation caused by the batch heat-
system, it occurred because of the suppliers inability ing system being used to preheat parts for forming. A
to consistently produce parts per the original design. decision was made to replace the batch system with a
In this case, the unstable process of the supplier was continuous system. In the interim, a manual feedback
causing the instabilities. Redesigning the critical com- control algorithm was implemented. The algorithm

QU A L I T Y P R O G R E S S I J U L Y 2 0 0 1 I 93
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was later discontinued when the new heating system

was installed.

REFERENCES
1. W. A. Shewhart, Economic Control of Quality of Manufactured
Product (New York: D. Van Nostrand Co. Inc., 1931), pp. 8-24.
2. A.J. Duncan, Quality Control and Industrial Statistics, fifth
edition (Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin Inc., 1986), p. vii.
3. Theodore Colton, Statistics in Medicine (Boston: Little
Brown, 1974), pp. 4-7.
4. Ibid.
5. W. A. Shewhart, Statistical Methods From the Viewpoint of
Quality Control (Lancaster, PA: Lancaster Press, 1939), p. 37.
6. Ibid., pp. 27, 33, 37 and 64.
7. Kaoru Ishikawa, Guide to Quality Control (White Plains,
New York: Quality Resources, 1989), pp. 18-19.
8. William W. Scherkenbach, The Deming Route to Quality and
Productivity (Washington: Ceep Press Books, 1988), pp. 25-34.
9. D. J. Wheeler and D.S. Chambers, Understanding Statistical
Process Control, second edition (Knoxville, TN: Statistical
Process Controls Inc., 1992), p. 50.
10. Lloyd S. Nelson, Technical Aids: Comments on
Significance Tests and Confidence Intervals, Journal of Quality
Technology, Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 328-330.
11. Joseph M. Juran, Then and Now In Quality Control,
Quality Progress, May 1975, pp. 8-9.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Craig, C.C., The x and r Chart and Its Competitors, Journal of
Quality Technology, Vol. 1, No. 2, p. 102.
Deming, W. Edwards, On Probability as a Basis for Action,
The American Statistician, Vol. 29, 1975, pp. 146-152.
Deming, W. Edwards, Out of the Crisis (Cambridge, MA: MIT
Press, 1986), p. 141.
Deming, W. Edwards, Some Theory of Sampling (New York: John
Wiley & Sons, 1950).
Gibra, Isaac N., Recent Developments in Control Chart
Techniques, Journal of Quality Technology, Vol. 7, No. 4, p. 183.
Grant, Eugene L. and Richard S. Leavenworth, Statistical
Quality Control (New York: McGraw Hill, 1988), p. 312.
Liberatore, Ralph L., Performance and Efficiency of Individuals
Charts in Applications to Obtain Statistical Control, (Ann Arbor,
MI: UMI Dissertation Services, 1995), p. 17.
Olmstead, Paul S., How To Detect the Type of an Assignable
Cause, Part II, Industrial Quality Control, January 1953, p. 23.
Shilling, E.G. and P.R. Nelson, The Effect of Non-Normality
On the Control Limits of x Charts, Journal of Quality
Technology, Vol. 8, No. 4, p. 183.

RALPH L. LIBERATORE is an adjunct professor at Duquesne

University in Pittsburgh. He earned a doctorate in industrial
engineering from the University of Pittsburgh. Liberatore is an
ASQ certified quality engineer and Senior Member.

94 I J U L Y 2 0 0 1 I W W W . A S Q . O R G