USDA SUPPLY & DEMAND REVIEW

August 10, 2017

SOYBEANS
SOYBEANS: The August USDA Crop production and USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND
Supply/Demand report was extremely bearish against
US SOYBEANS Aug Aug Jul Aug
trade expectations. The USDA showed soybean yield at
49.4 bushels per acre versus the average estimate at 47.4 USDA USDA USDA USDA
(46.5-49.0 range) bushels per acre. The total production 15-16 16-17 17-18 17-18
came in at 4.381 billion bushels versus the average Area (M Acres)
estimate at 4.203 (4.122-4.346 range) billion bushels and
compared to the USDA's July figure at 4.260 billion Planted 82.7 83.4 89.5 89.5
bushels. The 2016-17 US ending stocks came in at 370 Harvested 81.7 82.7 88.7 88.7
million bushels versus the average estimate at 399 (285-
430 range) million bushels and compared to July's 410 Yield (Bu/Acre) 48.0 52.1 48.0 49.4
million bushels. The 2017-18 US ending stocks came in at
475 million bushels versus the average estimate of 433
(346-572 range) million bushels and compared to July's Beginning Stocks (M Bu) 191 197 410 370
460 million bushels. The 2016-17 World ending stocks Production 3,926 4,307 4,260 4,381
were estimated at 96.98 million tonnes versus the average Imports 24 25 25 25
estimate at 94.4 (93.5-95.8 range) million tonnes and the
2017-18 World ending stocks were estimated at 97.78 Supply,Total 4,140 4,528 4,695 4,777
million tonnes versus the average estimate of 92.3 (89-
96.5 range) million tonnes and compared to July's 93.5 Crushings 1,886 1,890 1,950 1,940
million tonnes. The 2016-17 Brazilian soybean production Exports 1,942 2,150 2,150 2,225
came in at 114 million tonnes versus the average estimate
of 113.8 (113.0-114.5 range) million tonnes and Seed 97 104 101 101
Argentina's soybean production came in at 57.8 million Residual 18 14 34 35
tonnes versus the average estimate of 57.8 (57.0-58.0 Use, Total 3,944 4,158 4,235 4,301
range) million tonnes. Ending Stocks 197 370 460 475

PRICE OUTLOOK: Most all of the data was bearish and

Stocks/Use Ratio 5.0% 8.9% 10.9% 11.0%
outside the range of estimates. The world ending stocks
estimate at a record high 97.78 million tonnes and the
yield estimate coming in 2.9% above trend are seen as USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND Aug Aug Jul Aug
especially bearish. November soybean short-term
WORLD SOYBEANS USDA USDA USDA USDA
resistance is at 967 1/4, with 923 3/4 as the downside
target on a close below 960 1/2. (Million Metric Tons) 15-16 16-17 17-18 17-18
Supply
Beginning Stocks 77.36 77.06 94.78 96.98
Production 312.87 351.74 345.09 347.36
Imports 133.41 142.32 148.60 147.96
Use
Crush, Domestic 274.93 288.23 302.23 300.46
Total Domestic 314.13 329.15 345.27 343.32
Exports 132.46 144.99 149.66 151.19
Ending Stocks 77.06 96.98 93.53 97.78

Stocks/Use Ratio 24.5% 29.5% 27.1% 28.5%

***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent
verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or
commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully
consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition.
 USDA SUPPLY & DEMAND REVIEW
August 10, 2017

CORN
CORN: The August USDA Crop production and USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND
Supply/Demand report showed the average corn yield at US CORN Aug Aug Jul Aug
169.5 bushels per acre versus the average estimate of USDA USDA USDA USDA
165.9 (162.6-169 range) bushels per acre. The corn 15-16 16-17 17-18 17-18
production came in at 14.153 billion bushels versus the Area (M Acres)
average estimate of 13.807 (13,529-14,070 range) billion
Planted 88.0 94.0 90.9 90.9
bushels. The 2016-17 US ending stocks number was
Harvested 80.8 86.7 83.5 83.5
2.370 billion bushels versus the average estimate of 2.363
billion bushels (2.315-2.436 range) and the 2017-18 US
Yield (Bu/Acre) 168.4 174.6 170.7 169.5
ending stocks came in at 2.273 billion bushel versus the
average estimate of 1.940 billion bushels (1.642-2.325
range) and compared to the USDA's July figure at 2.325 Beginning Stocks (M Bu) 1,731 1,737 2,370 2,370
billion bushels. The 2016-17 World ending stocks were Production 13,602 15,148 14,255 14,153
estimated at 228.6 million tonnes versus the average Imports 68 55 50 50
estimate of 227.2 million tonnes and the 2017-18 World Supply, Total 15,401 16,940 16,675 16,573
ending stocks were estimated at 200.9 million tonnes
versus the average estimate of 193.4 million tonnes Feed & Residual 5,113 5,425 5,475 5,450
(183.0-200.5 range). Brazil's 2016-17 corn production Food, Seed & Industry 6,650 6,920 7,000 7,000
came in at 98.5 million tonnes versus the average Ethanol f or Fuel 5,224 5,450 5,500 5,500
estimate of 97.9 million tonnes and compared to the Domestic Total 11,763 12,345 12,475 12,450
USDA's July number at 97.0 million tonnes and Total Exports 1,901 2,225 1,875 1,850
Argentina's 2016-17 corn production came in at 41.0 Use, Total 13,664 14,570 14,350 14,300
million tonnes versus the average estimate of 41.0 million Ending Stocks 1,737 2,370 2,325 2,273
tonnes and compared to the USDA's July 41.0 million
tonnes. Stocks/Use Ratio 12.7% 16.3% 16.2% 15.9%

PRICE OUTLOOK: The corn yield came in 3.6 bushels

per acre above the average estimate and has caught the USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND Aug Aug Jul Aug
market off-guard. This in turn has pushed production WORLD CORN USDA USDA USDA USDA
estimates over 300 million bushels above the average (Million Metric Tons) 15-16 16-17 17-18 17-18
estimates. The 2017-18 US ending stocks at 2.273 is Supply
bearish and could push prices back towards the 360-370 Beginning Stocks 209.24 213.51 227.51 228.61
level. The USDA also lowered exports by 25 million
Production 969.49 1,070.51 1,036.90 1,033.47
bushels and feed use by 25 million bushels. The World
Imports 139.39 137.49 145.80 147.21
ending stocks were also bearish and above the high
estimate at 200.9 million tonnes. The short-term swing Use
objective for December corn is at 369 1/2 with resistance Feed, Domestic 601.69 630.83 652.15 651.32
at 381 1/2. Total Domestic 965.22 1,055.41 1,063.60 1,061.22
Exports 119.62 162.41 152.46 152.03
Ending Stocks 213.51 228.61 200.81 200.87

Stocks/Use Ratio 22.1% 21.7% 18.9% 18.9%

***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent
verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or
commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully
consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition.
 USDA SUPPLY & DEMAND REVIEW
August 10, 2017

WHEAT
WHEAT: The August USDA Crop production and USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND
Supply/Demand report showed the 2017-18 US ending
US WHEAT Aug Aug Jul Aug
stocks at 933 million bushels versus the average estimate
of 901 (806-948 range) million bushels and compared to USDA USDA USDA USDA
the July USDA number at 938 million bushels. All wheat 15-16 16-17 17-18 17-18
production came in at 1.739 billion bushels versus the Area (M Acres)
average estimate of 1.717 (1.628-1.784 range) billion Planted 55.0 50.2 45.7 45.7
bushels and compared to July's 1.760 million bushels. All
Harvested 47.3 43.9 38.1 38.1
winter wheat came in at 1.287 million bushels versus the
average estimate of 1.278 (1.258-1.293 range) million
bushels, HRW came in at 758 million bushels versus the Yield (Bu/Acre) 43.6 52.6 46.2 45.6
average estimate of 757 (737-775 range) million bushels,
SRW came in at 306 million bushels versus the average Beginning Stocks (M Bu) 752 976 1,184 1,184
estimate of 306 (300-311 range) million bushels, White Production 2,062 2,310 1,760 1,739
winter wheat came in at 223 million bushels versus the
average estimate of 216 (205-224 range) million bushels, Imports 113 118 140 150
and spring wheat came in at 402 million bushels versus Total Supply 2,927 3,403 3,084 3,074
the average estimate of 390 (350-440) million bushels and
compared to July's 423 million bushels. The 2017-18 Food 957 949 955 950
world ending stocks were estimated at 264.7 million Seed 67 61 66 66
tonnes versus the average estimate of 256.8 (245.0-263.1
Feed/Residual 149 154 150 150
range) million tonnes and compared to July's 260.6 million
tonnes. Domestic Total 1,174 1,164 1,171 1,166
Total Exports 778 1,055 975 975
PRICE OUTLOOK: The US wheat production was Use, Total 1,951 2,219 2,146 2,141
considered bearish versus trade estimates as the US Ending Stocks 976 1,184 938 933
ending stocks are 32 million bushels above the average
estimate. The hard red spring wheat production was Stocks/Use Ratio 50.0% 53.4% 43.7% 43.6%
estimated at 364 million bushels which was on the higher
end of estimates but harvested acres still need to be
adjusted. The world production and ending stocks are USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND Aug Aug Jul Aug
bearish as the FSU-12 production is 8.6 million tonnes WORLD WHEAT USDA USDA USDA USDA
above the July USDA estimates. Canada's production was (Million Metric Tons) 15-16 16-17 17-18 17-18
lowered by 1.7 million tonnes to 23.5 million as world
Supply
ending stocks jumped by 4.1 million tonnes to 264.7
million tonnes. Use 437 as next target for September Beginning Stocks 217.69 242.86 258.05 258.56
wheat if 446 1/2 trendline support gives way. Production 736.97 755.00 737.83 743.18
Imports 170.04 178.77 178.02 179.35
Use
Feed, Domestic 136.44 146.86 139.31 140.63
Total Domestic 711.81 739.29 735.28 737.05
Exports 172.87 182.27 178.42 179.92
Ending Stocks 242.86 258.56 260.60 264.69

Stocks/Use Ratio 34.1% 35.0% 35.4% 35.9%

***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent
verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or
commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully
consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition.
 USDA SUPPLY & DEMAND REVIEW
August 10, 2017

COTTON
USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND Aug Aug Jul Aug
COTTON Aug Aug Jul Aug WORLD COTTON USDA USDA USDA USDA
USDA USDA USDA USDA (Million 480-lb Bales) 15-16 16-17 17-18 17-18
15-16 16-17 17-18 17-18 Supply
Area (M Acres) Beginning Stocks 111.75 97.22 90.27 89.99
Planted 8.58 10.07 12.06 12.06 Production 96.76 106.49 115.36 117.31
Harvested 8.07 9.51 11.18 11.05 Imports 35.22 37.13 36.77 37.19
Use
Yield (Lb/Acre) 766 867 816 892 Domestic 111.26 113.63 117.03 117.40
Exports 35.28 37.39 36.81 37.17
Beginning Stocks (M Bales) 3.65 3.80 3.20 2.80 Loss -0.02 -0.17 -0.16 -0.19
Production 12.89 17.17 19.00 20.55 Ending Stocks 97.22 89.99 88.73 90.89
Imports 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 16.57 20.98 22.21 23.36 Stocks/Use Ratio 87.4% 79.2% 75.8% 77.4%

Domestic Use 3.45 3.25 3.40 3.35

Exports 9.15 14.92 13.50 14.20
Use, Total 12.60 18.17 16.90 17.55
Unaccounted 0.17 0.01 0.01 0.01
Ending Stocks 3.80 2.80 5.30 5.80

Stocks/Use Ratio 30.2% 15.4% 31.4% 33.0%

***This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent
verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or
commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully
consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition.