in pursuit of

REALITY

Luminary
Luminary Labs | Labs
June 2017| June 2017 Kate Machtiger & Michelle Shevin
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 Since the earliest cave paintings,
humans have tried to represent their
reality.

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 With each new tool, the accuracy of
this representation has improved:

seeing experiencing believing

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 So, where are we today?

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 First, the basics

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 What are AR and VR?

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 Reality
The real world.

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 Augmented reality
A blending of virtual and real life, allowing users
to interact with virtual elements in the real world
(also known as mixed reality).

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 Virtual reality
A fabricated, immersive virtual world, isolated
from the real world.

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 The virtual and augmented reality
market is growing.

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 2016 revenue: $6 billion
2020 revenue: $143 billion*
Hardware, software, third-party applications, consulting services, and integration services.

*per IDC estimates

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 Many will tell you our virtual
future is here...

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 VOGUE UK

FRESH BUSINESS THINKING

THE GUARDIAN

QUARTZ

BUSINESS INSIDER

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 Others are not so sure...

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 NEW YORK TIMES

RE/CODE

WALL STREET JOURNAL

PATENTLY APPLE

THE VERGE

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 So where are we really?

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 Wide adoption
We are here

Early adoption Holdout adoption

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 When will we hit the tipping point?

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 When the technology facilitates not
just experience, but true belief:

seeing experiencing believing

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 How soon will it
happen?
History offers
clues.

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 Seeing

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 Early environments stretched the
imagination through the eyes.

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1780s

Art imitates life

Panorama paintings drew patrons into a round room where they were
surrounded by a floor-to-ceiling, 360-degree scene.

Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia 23

 1820s
The eyes play tricks

Dioramas allowed the audience to stay in one place while the scenery moved
in front of them. Lighting effects simulated movement and the passage of time.

Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia 24

 Seeing
Experiencing

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 New contraptions affronted the
senses, but barriers between
virtual and real remained.

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 1920s
Whats your vector, Victor?

As new modes of transportation proliferated, simulators emerged as training

tools. Valves and pumps offered airplane pilots realistic dashboard readings,
while model cars measured drivers reaction times.

Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia 27

 1950s
Watch n sniff
The Sensorama offered a new
paradigm of realism in
entertainment, bringing sight,
sound, smell, and temperature
together to create an entirely
artificial immersive experience.
However, the project failed to
capture the interest of the
movie industry, and ceased
before it could reach the
masses.

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 1960s
Hooked on a feeling
The first head-mounted display,
Ivan Sutherlands sword of
Damocles hung precariously
from the ceiling. The contraption
allowed the visualsa floating
cube within a wireframe room
to shift with head movements.

Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia 29

 1980s
Body language
Computer scientist Jaron Lanier
founded VPL, the first business to
sell VR products. Their motion-
tracking gloves and data suits
offered a way to interact with
virtual elements through
movements and gestures.

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 1990s
Let the games begin
The first major commercial VR
devices, Virtuality headsets, joysticks,
and gloves used magnetic tracking to
simulate movements within a gaming
environment, offering a new level of
3D immersion for techies and arcade
goers.

Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Dr. Waldern/Virtuality Group - Dr. Jonathan D. Waldern 31
 2006
I am therefore iPod

The MyVu capitalized on videos newfound portability, allowing users to watch

iPod videos projected in front of their eyes. It roughly simulated the experience
of watching a large-screen TV.
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 2013
Glass houses

Projecting an interactive display in front of the eyes, Google Glass supported

tasks like taking photos or checking messages. But the product failed to gain
traction with users and privacy fears scared away the public.

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 Seeing
Experiencing
Believing
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 A range of technologies begin to
convince people of the validity
of alternate realities.

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 1990s 2000s
Was it all a dream?

Second Lifes avatar-driven experience went beyond pure entertainment,

letting people craft alternate lives in a full-fledged virtual world. With its own
currency, brands, and social interactions, Second Life came to supplant reality
for engrossed users.
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 2014 2015
Hype machines

The Oculus Rift ushered in a new era of VR hype with a step change in
headset technology. Through motion tracking and powerful image displays
optimized for human eyes, the device allowed users to lose themselves in a
nearly-realistic 3D world.
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 2016
On the road to Viridian City
Global AR phenomenon Pokmon
Go sent millions of smartphone
users in pursuit of virtual characters
superimposed onto real places. Its
popularity offered a glimpse into the
market potential for engaging AR
experiences.

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 2017
Form follows function

As we develop the power to make virtual experiences more believable, its time
to go beyond entertainment and serve real needs. One early effort in this area is
the EdSim Challenge, which seeks VR/AR simulations that will prepare
Americas students for the future workforce.
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 What needs to happen
to make the hype real?

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 5 crucial VR improvements are
on the horizon.

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 Less nausea
Better blending of virtual and real will help
combat motion sickness. Even adding a virtual
nose has been shown to make a big
difference.

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 Lower costs
High-quality VR headsets still cost hundreds of
dollars. But over the next few years, Tractica
estimates that prices will decline 15% per year.

$
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 More portability
Todays devices are often tethered or bulky.
Lighter mobile devices with better resolution
and battery life will generate new use cases
and improve the value proposition.

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 Addition of social elements
Most experiences are currently solitary. Social
capabilities will uncover new applications for
VR/AR and encourage more prolonged use.

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 Better exploration of safety
Wearing an isolating headset can come with
risks (e.g., walking into walls, tripping over
tethers, losing your balance). Furthermore,
scientists have yet to fully explore how VR
experiences affect mental development.

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 What does this mean
for business leaders?

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 A few questions to ask yourself...

Can todays technology address a real problem in

my company?

Is my team or company strategy early-adopter or

wait-and-see?

What would the technology need to look like

before I invest?

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