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journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijdrr

Shanghai in China

Huiyong Lia, Laijun Zhaob,c, , Rongbing Huangd, Qingmi Huc

a

School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, PR China

b

Sino-US Global Logistics Institute, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030, PR China

c

Antai College of Economics & Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030, PR China

d

School of Administrative Studies, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Canada M3J 1P3

A R T I C L E I N F O A BS T RAC T

Keywords: Proper pre-disaster emergency shelter locations and the corresponding victim allocation contribute to

Emergency shelter planning mitigating disaster loss in densely populated urban areas. The number of victims and their needs in emergency

Earthquake shelters change over the duration of the post-earthquake period, as evidenced by both actual earthquake records

Refuge demand and theoretical analysis. To match the time-varying demand with the shelter planning, the hierarchical shelters

Shelter service

that provide dierent level services should be projected. We rst estimate the varying number of the victims in

Cross-entropy method

shelters during the post-earthquake period, and then model the locations for emergency shelters with a nested

hierarchy, and also model the allocation of victims among shelters. Furthermore, we employ an ecient hybrid

cross-entropy method to solve the location model and develop a better victim allocation scheme with a swap

move to overcome the drawbacks of other allocation schemes. The empirical results from application to the

Xuhui District in Shanghai of China show that emergency shelter planning based on a time-varying demand can

reduce the construction cost of shelters and the averaged evacuation distance traveled by the victims, compared

to the current policy based on the unvarying demand.

In the 2011 Thoku earthquake, over 2,000 emergency shelters were

The costs caused by natural hazards are rapidly increasing in urban put into use immediately, providing over 360,000 victims with safe

areas, particularly in developing countries, where a number of mega- places and essential relief resources, and made better living conditions

cities are growing. By 2050, 66% of the world population is expected to for the victims when the earthquake destroyed their houses [19]. There

live in cities, where various human activities are concentrated. Thus, are various forms of shelters, for example, xed temporary shelters,

cities are more and more vulnerable to disasters, particularly to self-built shelters, replacing shelters, temporary outdoor shelters, and

earthquakes, which can strike any city suddenly without warning. community or collective shelters [20]. Existing infrastructure in urban

Once an earthquake takes place in a large city, the damage can be areas such as schools, gyms, arenas, green space, and fair market can

tremendous both in social and economic terms. Without proper be transformed to emergency shelters through adapting emergency

disaster operations management, even an intermediate earthquake facilities. These shelters can be classied into two main kinds:

would become a destructive disaster to a city. Although it is not temporary shelters, which are used immediately after an earthquake

possible to prevent or predict the next earthquake, its adverse eects (including tents accompanied by the provision of food, water and

can be mitigated through various actions and strategies, e.g., operating medical treatment); and temporary houses which are constructed in a

emergency shelters. By planning emergency shelters eectively at the temporary location, allowing for a return to normal daily activities (this

mitigation and preparedness phases, the exposure of aected popula- can take the form of prefabricated housing) and are usually intended to

tion to earthquakes can be reduced dramatically and their resiliency to be used for a longer time following an earthquake [22].

the disaster also can be improved [5]. Because emergency shelters are important infrastructure in post-

According to the United Nations Disaster Relief Co-ordination earthquake period, their planning has received increasing interest from

Oce, emergency shelter serves several vital functions: protection both researchers and practitioners. Most research on emergency

against the disaster, storage of belongings and protection of property, shelter planning considers that the total number of victims does not

Corresponding author at: Sino-US Global Logistics Institute, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030, PR China.

E-mail address: ljzhao70@sjtu.edu.cn (L. Zhao).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.01.007

Received 14 October 2016; Received in revised form 15 January 2017; Accepted 15 January 2017

Available online 16 January 2017

2212-4209/ 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

H. Li et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 22 (2017) 431446

widely used to estimate the number of people who will seek shelters in Characteristics used for classifying the literature.

earthquake scenarios (http://www.fema.gov/hazus-software). The

Demand F Fixed

HAZUS methodology assumes that the number of people who will UF Unfixed

require short-term housing is a function of income, ethnicity, home Objective EC Evacuation Cost

ownership, and age. However, HAZUS may underestimate the shelter CC Construction Cost

needs [28], also may fail to realize that the number of people who Coverage FC Full Coverage

Non-specified

evacuate to shelters actually changes at dierent phases after an Assignment G General case

earthquake. According to the Central Disaster Prevention Council C Closest case

(CDPC)s report on the Niigata Earthquake, Japan in 2004, the

number of aected population who evacuated to shelters was peaked

at over 100,000 on the fourth day after the earthquake and decreased Table 2

to about only 10,000 people by the end of the rst month (http://www. Summary characteristics of modeling efforts.

Arthur year Demand Objective Coverage Assignment

number of victims in shelters is aected by both physical and

behavioral factors. The physical factor focuses on the ability of [26] F EC G

buildings to withstand an earthquake and on the seismic intensity; [8] F CC FC G

[15] UF CC G

the behavioral factor focuses on peoples choices under emergency

[18] UF CC/EC G

scenario: some people would prefer to return to their homes, live with [11] F CC FC G

friends or relatives, or reside in a hotel, rather than evacuate to a public [17] UF EC C

shelter [7]. In urban areas, interrupted water supplies and non- [6] F EC FC G

functioning elevators besides the damaged buildings would aect the [12] UF CC/EC G

[27] UF CC/EC G

seeking-shelter decision of the aected people, and the system dynamic [13] F CC FC C

method is proposed to analyze comprehensively all the factors to [34] F EC FC G

estimate the varying number of victims in shelters [32]. Besides that

the number of victims in shelters varies, their needs for relief supplies

and accommodation facilities would not be the same during the post- For models without coverage constraint, no specied coverage

earthquake period. For example, victims in shelters show their low- constraint exists.

level needs (e.g., instant food, camping tents) at the initial time and Assignment: This relates to the allocation of victims, as previously

high-level needs (e.g., regular food, prefab housing) when they begin to referred, it uses either the solution generated from location proce-

recover. In this study, we consider the changing needs and varying dure (general case) or the solution with Closest Allocation con-

number of the victims in shelters simultaneously, and view them as the sideration (closest case).

time varying refuge demand (includes the needs and number).

Mathematical programming models and optimization models are Given the above modeling attributes (see Table 1), characteristics of

widely used in shelter planning. They can be applied to the shelters the literature are presented in Table 2. The presented models are sorted

location problem and the victims allocation problem. Firstly, determin- based on their year of publication in ascending order to provide better

ing where to locate emergency shelters in urban areas can be insights on the evolution of the eld.

performed using Facility Location Models (FLMs). In an actual The classication of literature presented in Table 2 presents some

evacuation period, emergency shelters perform dierent functions gaps in current literature that our work intends to t in: (1) Neither

and oer dierent levels of service to meet the varying needs of xed demand or unxed demand consider the varying refuge demand

victims. Thus, Hierarchical Facility Location Models (HFLMs) that deal of victims comprehensively. The varying refuge demand indicates the

with multi-level congurations of facility location can be adopted [24]. changing needs and varying number of victims in the shelters, and all

HFLMs have been widely applied to various elds such as educational the references consider the number of victims only. (2) The assignment

systems [29], medicine [25,3], emergency systems [33], and waste used in current references to allocate victims wouldnt achieve the

management [1,14]. To the best of our knowledge, only one study trade-o between distance and capacity consideration, because they

applies HFLMs to model the hierarchical feature of emergency shelters either use the allocation generated by location procedure or the

[6]. Secondly, allocating victims to selected shelters is essentially an solution with closest assignment consideration.

assignment problem. Assignment problems have been extensively Shanghai is a mega-city with more than 24 million people and is the

studied by researchers using FLMs [4]. When FLMs have a capacity largest economic center in China. By 2015, the GDP of Shanghai

constraint, they usually use the allocation solution generated in reached 379.2 billion dollars, with an average growth of 22.3 billion

location procedures [9]. When FLMs do not have a capacity constraint, dollars per year since 2003. Shanghai has widespread slowly accumu-

the most-used type of assignment method is the closest assignment lated soft clay layers, making it a typical soft-soil area with a fragile

constraint [10]. Moreover, the path assignment is adopted to achieve geographic environment. Many tall buildings proliferate in its central

the trade-o between the capacity and the closest distance considera- area, and the surrounding environment of the city lies on several

tion [29]. Next, we intend to provide a framework outlining the moderate-scale earthquake faults. A small area, huge population,

characteristics of the modeling eorts from literature. The character- intensive new construction and a high concentration of economic

istics using which we classify the models include the followings activities can characterize Shanghai; meanwhile it also has great

(summarized in Table 1). seismic risk. Therefore, we select a central district of Shanghai-the

Xuhui district as case study, aiming to give some insights to guide the

Demand: This includes xed and unxed patterns. Fixed demand practice of shelter planning.

The remainder of this article is organized as follows. Section 2

means the number of victims is viewed as a constant, while unxed

demand represents the number is uncertain or stochastic. introduces the methodology used in this paper. Firstly, we propose the

Objective: Two types of objective function are selected: construction estimation method of the changing needs and varying number of

victims in shelters after an earthquake. It is therefore necessary to

cost and evacuation cost (time or distance).

Coverage: For models with coverage constraint, every community determine how shelters should be structured to accommodate these

variations. Secondly, we propose a hierarchal emergency shelters

should be covered by at least one shelter, that is, the full coverage.

432

H. Li et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 22 (2017) 431446

construction cost of the emergency shelters and the total evacuation

travel distance of the victims. Thirdly, we develop a set of algorithms to

solve the models. Section 3 describes an empirical study of emergency

shelter planning for the Xuhui District of Shanghai, and provides a

comparative study between a time-varying demand and an unvarying

demand estimation. Section 4 of this article presents the conclusions,

and suggests directions for future research.

2. Methodology

the varying demand of victims in shelters after an earthquake. In this

study, we rst observe that the demand varies over time in actual

earthquake evacuation situations, as evidenced by the type of relief

supplies and the housing facilities needed, in dierent post-earthquake

phases. Then, we use an estimation method to quantify the changing

trend of refuge demand, considering the building and behavioral Fig. 1. Variations in the number of victims after an earthquake in Niigata prefecture,

Japan, 2004.

factors in post-earthquake period. Using the maximum number of

refuge demand at dierent phases as input, we model the hierarchical

shelters location problem and the victim allocation problem by

optimization method. Finally, a novel algorithm is conducted to form of victims in shelters aected by a hypothetical earthquake with an

a systematic search of the optimal solution. epicenter in the Tokyo metropolitan area, which are selected for

reference in our study: the proportion of the population who will seek

2.1. Estimation method of the time-varying demand of victims refuge as a function of their homes post-disaster condition and the

proportion of the population who will be evacuated to emergency

In this study, two implications are used to explain the time-varying shelters during the evacuation phase, as a function of time. In this

feature of the demand of victims in shelters after an earthquake: the study, we adopt the analysis on two factors that aect the action of

needs of victims in shelters for relief supplies and accommodation victims [32] and the related parameters provided by the CDPCs report,

facilities, and the number of them varies over at the dierent phases of then propose a new method to calculate the time-varying demand

the post-earthquake period. In the WenChuan Earthquake of 2008, during the post-earthquake period.

Sichuan province, China, the primary need in rst three days during After an earthquake, the damage degree of houses can be categor-

evacuation was camping equipment, while more complex household ized simply into three kinds: completely destroyed, partially damaged,

necessities, such as shower facilities and kitchens, came to the forefront and intact. We set some values to represent the above damage degree,

in the following week [6]. In the YuShu Earthquake of 2010, China, 1 for the ratio of completely destroyed houses, 2 for the ratio of

about 82% of the aected population chose convenience food (e.g., partially damaged houses, and 3 for the ratio of intact houses. In the

instant noodles and biscuits) as the rst meal on the rst day, while less following month after an earthquake, the partially damaged houses are

than 6% ate regular food (e.g., vegetables and meat), and in the not to be repaired because the limited recovery eort is concentrated

subsequent two weeks, the percentage of the population who wanted on lifeline systems (e.g., water, power, gas, etc.) and people who

regular food went up to 33% and the demand for convenience food evacuate from their own partially damaged houses would not go back to

decreased to 11% [31]. This variation implies a hierarchy of refuge their home because the houses are not suitable for living yet. In this

demand after earthquakes, showing low-level needs (e.g., convenience study, the change of refuge demand for shelters is mainly caused by

food, camping tents) at the initial period and high-level needs (e.g., recovery of lifeline systems. Therefore, only the number of people

regular food, prefab housing) by the end of the period. In the Niigata whose houses remain intact with the shortage of essential services is

Earthquake of 2004, Japan, according to the CDPCs report, the considered as time-varying. The choice of evacuation made by the

number of people who evacuated to shelters kept changing during victims also aects the number of people in the shelters. According to

post-earthquake period, which is illustrated in Fig. 1. There are logical the report compiled by CDPC on the Niigata Earthquake, Japan in

reasons for the temporal variance of refuge demand, in our observa- 2004, 100% of victims whose houses are completely destroyed would

tions. In the early post-earthquake period, the people will evacuate to choose to evacuate, while 50.3% of victims whose houses are partially

shelters because of harsh conditions in their homes or shortages of damaged would choose to evacuate. We thus use 1 and 2 to represent

services (e.g., water and power supplies), which are the immediate the two proportions above, respectively. Because we consider the

consequences of earthquake damage. As the critical infrastructure number of victims whose houses remain intact with the shortage of

repairs are completed at the recovery phase, though, people will return essential services as time-varying, 3 (t ) is proposed to represent the

to their homes and resume their pre-quake activities, except for those proportion of these victims that choose to evacuate. 3 (t ) is related to

whose homes are destroyed in the earthquakes; they will remain in the shortage of essential services (e.g., water, power, etc.) and the

shelters awaiting the provision of temporary housing, where they can individual degree of intolerance for this type of shortage. Based on the

survive the long post-disaster period. practice of Wenchuan Earthquakes recovery and their simulation on

There are two main factors aecting the decision made by the Xuhui district, we use the data of Wang et al. [32] to estimate the

people about whether choose to stay in their homes or move to shortage of essential service function (sh (t )) and the individual intol-

emergency shelters: the degree of damage to their houses and the loss erance function (in (t )) by exponential simulation. Then, we give a

of access to safe water and other key services [32]. Furthermore, formula for predicting the resulting time-varying demand as follows:

according to the CDPCs report, it is estimated that about 35% of the di (t ) = (1 1 Popi + 2 2 Popi + 3 3 (t ) Popi ) (1)

residential population will travel to outside the aected areas rather

than evacuate to nearby shelters, contributing to the shrinking number where di (t ) represents the refuge demand associated with commu-

of the victims in shelters at the late phase of the post-quake period. nity i at time t ; represents the proportion of aected people who

They provide some parameters that can be used to estimate the number choose an emergency shelter as their destination instead of traveling to

433

H. Li et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 22 (2017) 431446

the homes of friends or relatives or to hotels outside the aected areas; conditions and shortages of basic supplies will cause the aected

Popi represents the population of community i . people to be evacuated from their places of residence to one of the

According to Wang et al. [32], the proportions of the shortage of nearby shelters (IS, SS, or LS); one day after an earthquake (Phase II),

essential services are 87.07% when the earthquake happens, 58.64% when IS can no longer accommodate their emerging needs for relief

when one day after earthquake, 57.54% when two days after earth- resources, these people will be transferred to a higher-level shelter (SS

quake, and 43.53% when seven days after earthquake. Based on the or LS). Ten days after an earthquake (Phase III), similarly, those in a SS

practice of Wechuan Earthquake, the proportions of population will be relocated to a LS. Along with this evacuation process, some

aected by the shortage of essential service are 18.8% two weeks after types of behavior (e.g., travel to the non-aected areas or returning

earthquake and 0% one month after earthquake. We use the above home with the recovery of basic supplies) also can result in a change in

proportion data to estimate the shortage function sh(t), as shown below, the number of victims in shelters.

sh (t ) = 0. 94 exp (0. 15t ) (2)

2.2. Two-stages optimization model for hierarchical shelter planning

and the percentage of explained variance is 98%.

Based on the data of the Niigata Earthquake, Japan, the propor- When a disaster happens, the evacuation assignment can be divided

tions of victims who choose to evacuate as a result of the shortage of into two stages: the rst stage is to decide which shelters to go to and

essential service is 36.2% two days after the earthquake and 91% four the second stage is assigning the aected people [30]. The selection of

days after earthquake. Because people cannot tolerate having no water the shelters involves an emergency-facilitated location problem, and

for more than seven days, we set the individual intolerant proportion the assignment of the victims involves allocating them to shelters. In

approximately to 100% ve days after the earthquake. Similarly, We this section, we propose an emergency shelter location model and a

use the above proportion data to estimate the individual intolerant victim allocation model, to address the construction cost and the

function in (t ), as shown below, evacuation distance problems in actual shelter planning. Because the

in (t ) = min {2 exp (3. 5/t ), 1} (3) budget for building shelters is limited and the construction and

maintenance cost is very high, we rst consider the objective of

and the percentage of explained variance is 99%. Then, minimizing the total construction cost of shelters, given coverage,

3 (t ) = sh (t ) in (t ). capacity and allocation constraints. After the shelter locations are

Considering the hierarchy of needs of victims in shelters, we divide determined, planners want to ensure prompt delivery of shelter

the one-month post-earthquake period into three successive phases: services, so that the aected people can resume daily activities and

the immediate phase, which we call Phase I (1 day); the short-term begin the process of recovery as quickly as possible. We also realize that

phase, which we call Phase II (2 to 10 days); and the long-term phase, the aected people would require dierent services at dierent phases

which we call Phase III (11 to 30 days). Accordingly, we categorize the of the post-earthquake period. Therefore we suggested building a

time-varying refuge demand into three levels based on this temporal hierarchical shelter system to address the time-varying refuge demand.

scale, namely immediate demand (Phase I), short-term demand (Phase Fig. 2 shows the precise three-level structure of shelters and their

II) and long-term demand (Phase III). When time t belongs to a phase hierarchical coverage for serving the dierent levels of demand of

k , we use the maximum number of time-varying refuge demand at site i victims.

during phase k to represent the level k demand at site i , i.e., Before introducing the models for selecting sites for shelters with

dik = max di (t ). this hierarchical structure and designing an allocation scheme for

t phase k

After classifying the changing needs and varying number of the victims, we make three assumptions:

victims in shelters into dierent levels demands, it is necessary to

construct dierent types of shelters to respond to these demands. 1) The demand for a given community is concentrated at the physical

Therefore, we further divide shelters into three types, based on their site of its community committee. The community committee is the

service periods and functions, namely immediate shelter (IS), short- most basic administrative unit in China and can be representative

term shelter (SS), and long-term shelter (LS). According to the national of its administrated community. Moreover, the area occupied by

standard established by the China Earthquake Administration (CEA) one community is very small compared to the whole city; the

(http://www.csi.ac.cn/publish/main/847/1114/index.html), a higher- average area of a community in Shanghai is about 0.1 km2,

level shelter must be equipped with more comprehensive facilities, approximately 1/60,000 of the entire city area.

provide a larger area, a larger service radius and a longer service time 2) The residents would follow the planners recommended allocation

than a lower-level shelter. In our settings, a higher-level shelter can scheme when they need to be evacuated to an assigned shelter.

provide all the functions as a lower-level one, but not vice versa. For Once the emergency shelters are designated, the government would

example, LS can simultaneously function as both SS and IS, but neither organize rehearsals for the residents, to educate them on earth-

the SS nor the IS can provide some of the functions of an LS. We also quake emergency procedures, so that the victims would follow the

emphasize that the service hierarchy of shelters must keep up with the planned scheme rather than haphazardly choosing where to go after

temporal variance in refuge demand. For example, the LS and SS can an earthquake.

provide the same services as the IS during the initial post-earthquake 3) Every resident in a given community will be assigned to only one

period, and the immediate demand can be upgraded to a short-term shelter. For ecient and orderly evacuation to shelters, it is

demand as time progresses. However, the IS cannot provide higher- necessary to view the residents of a community as a whole group,

level services; the LS and SS would have to take over the short-term to be assigned to one shelter.

demand. Likewise, when short-term demand upgrades to long-term

demand, the SS cannot supply higher-level services; only the LS will be In order to provide adequate services for the victims, the solutions

left to satisfy the long-term demand. obtained from any model should comply with the following two

This hierarchical design of shelters is necessary to implement post- constraints:

earthquake evacuation strategies. As time progresses, when the de-

mand cannot be met in the assigned shelter type, some will be directed 1) Coverage constraint: to ensure that the people are evacuated to

to a higher-level shelter where their emerging higher-order needs can shelters as quickly as possible, it is necessary to evacuate them to a

be met, while others will choose to travel outside the aected areas or nearby shelter, with reasonable distance away from their resi-

just return to their own homes. As for specic seek-shelters move- dences. Hence, the distance between each community and its

ments: immediately after an earthquake (Phase I), harsh living assigned shelter should be within the shelters service radius

434

H. Li et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 22 (2017) 431446

Fig. 2. Visualization of the three levels of emergency shelters location and victim allocation.

(coverage). This is the most important constraint, and should be 2.2.1. Emergency shelter location model (ESLM)

given the highest priority.

2) Capacity constraint: to meet the basic needs of daily life, the area

min j ukyjk

jS kK (4)

required by the victims in shelters should not exceed the shelters

planned area. Because people may tolerate more crowding under an

s. t. xijk = 1, iI , k K

emergency scenario, some limited congestion of a shelter can be

jJ (5)

allowed; however, appropriate limits of such congestion must be

set.

yjk 1, jJ

kK (6)

The notation related to the two-stages model is given below.

k

j

xijk dik yjh,jJ , kK

Index sets: iI

k h =1 (7)

I Set of residential communities

k

J Set of candidate shelters

xijk cisk ysh, iI , jJ , kK

K Set of hierarchical levels (8)

s J h =1

Parameters:

aij Distance between site i and site j

xrjkcijk yjk ,iI , jJ , kK

D k Coverage distance of a shelter during phase k rI (9)

cijk 1 if aij D k ; 0 otherwise

j yjl = 0, jJk , l , k K (l < k , k 2) (10)

Area of candidate shelter j

k Required area per one victim who needs level k shelter service

Construction cost per unit area to build level k shelter yjk , xijk {0, 1},jJ , k K (11)

uk

dik Number of victims from residential community i during phase k Eq. (4) is the objective function of the emergency shelter location

Decisive variables: model, as it indicates that the purpose of the placement is to minimize

y k 1 if site j is located to build level k shelter; 0 otherwise

j

the total construction cost for building the hierarchical shelters. Eq. (5)

helps to ensure that all the aected population of each community is

xijk 1 if site i is allocated to shelter j during phase k ; 0 otherwise

assigned to only one candidate shelter for hierarchical refuge service at

each phase. Eq. (6) provides that there can be at most one level of

shelter constructed at each candidate site (i.e., the co-location of

The mathematical programming formulation of the model for dierent levels of shelters on the same site is prohibited). Eq. (7) puts

emergency shelter locations is dened by the objective function (4) constraints on the holding capacity of the shelters, ensuring that the

and Eqs. (5)(11). served time-varying refuge demand cannot exceed the capacity of all

435

H. Li et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 22 (2017) 431446

the selected shelters at each phase. Eq. (8) indicates that the time- 2.3. Solution procedure

varying refuge demand of each community must only be served by the

same or higher level shelter within the shelters hierarchical service Researchers have implemented various approaches to solve the

radius. Eq. (9) indicates that each selected shelter must serve at least hierarchical location problem, and these can generally be divided into

one communitys time-varying refuge demand within its hierarchical two types. The rst uses a commercial solver (e.g., CPLEX, XPESS) to

coverage radius. Eq. (10) suggests that the site of a low-level candidate tackle a small-scale problem [29], but solving a large-scale problem

shelter set cannot be chosen to build a higher-level shelter. Eq. (11) takes much longer time. The second approach uses a non-exact

gives the binary denitions of these variables. randomized optimization method like a genetic algorithm and Tabu

The solutions for the above model can be divided into two types: search [16,3], which can attain near-optimal solutions in large-scale

location decisive variable (yjk ) and allocation decisive variable (xijk ). scenarios. In our study, we nd that these randomized algorithms

After yjk is chosen, xijk can be obtained. However, because the ESLM would result in a high ratio of infeasible solutions when they are

does not take the optimization of evacuation distance into account, applied to the proposed models, costing extra computational eort.

victims would travel longer evacuation distances to shelters if the Therefore, we decide to develop a novel randomized algorithm based

allocation decisive variables of this model were put into eect. In order on the cross-entropy (CE) method, which would reduce the infeasibility

to ensure that victims can be evacuated promptly to selected shelters through its internal mechanisms. Next, we would explain how the CE

during dierent post-earthquake phases, using the ESLM, we should method was applied to ESLM, and we also develop an allocation

further consider the total evacuation distance traveled by all these heuristic to optimize the total evacuation distance of the VAM.

people as an optimization objective, while also complying with the

coverage and capacity constraints. When the solutions are obtained at 2.3.1. The CE method for emergency shelter location model

the rst stage, we use j* to represent the set of selected shelters, which The CE method is a relatively novel heuristic algorithm in the realm

the victims of every community should be allocated to. of optimization methodologies. It is rstly developed as a method for

estimating the probabilities of rare event in complex stochastic

networks, then applied to tackle combinatorial optimization, triggering

2.2.2. Victim allocation model (VAM) a number of other operation research applications [23]. In its most

basic form, the CE method consists of the repeated execution of the

min aij dik xijk following two steps:

iI jJ* kK (12)

1) Generate a random sample from a pre-specied probability dis-

tribution function.

s. t. xijk = 1, iI , k K

2) Use this sample to modify the parameters of the probability

jJ* (13)

distribution so as to produce a better sample in the next iteration.

cijk x ijk dik ,jJ *, k K

iI

k (14) distance (or CE), which will be detailed in the following execution of

the CE method. We employ a CE method hybridized with a bin-packing

method to solve the ESLM. Steps include solution representation,

xijk {0, 1},iI , jJ *, k K (15) feasibility modication, performance calculation and CE method

execution.

Eq. (12) is the objective function of the allocation model, which

minimizes the total evacuation travel distance in the dierent phases. 2.3.1.1. Solution representation. ESLMs variables can be divided into

Eqs. (13) and (14) are similar to those for the ESLM, and represent location variables yjk , j J , k K and allocation variables xijk ,

coverage and capacity constraints; the major dierence is that the

i I , j J ,k K . Among these, we choose yjk as the main solution

candidate shelters are already selected in the VAM (i.e. each j belongs

because it can decide the allocation variable by using the solution

to a j*). Eq. (13) expresses that each community must be assigned to

procedure. Real-number encoding is an easy way to represent the

only one selected shelter, and Eq. (14) ensures the selected shelters

solution, which generally uses the hierarchical level number k to

capacity should exceed the overall time-varying refuge demand that is

represent that the candidate site is selected for a level-k facility [3].

within its service radius allocated to it. Eq. (15) yields the binary

This encoding implies that all the candidate sites are regarded as the

constraints.

same with the respect to their level choices. In ESLM, however, this

Neither of these two models feasibility could be guaranteed if we

encoding introduces many infeasible scenarios, such as low-level

stuck strictly to all the constraints. If the numbers and sizes of the

candidate sites being used for higher-level shelters; this is not

candidate shelters were small, even the combined candidate shelters

acceptable, based on the coverage constraint (10). To avoid this

capacities would not satisfy the total demand. And even if the

impediment to our hierarchical approach, we used hierarchical

combined capacities of all the candidate shelters were greater than

binary number encoding instead of real-number encoding; the

the total time varying demand over all phases of the post-earthquake

dierence between two methods are shown in Fig. 3.

period, the models, which are subject to the coverage and capacity

constraints, would also generate infeasible solutions. In fact, though, in

a real emergency scenario, a limited amount of congestion is allowed in In this gure, the long vertical dashed lines represent the bound-

the emergency shelters, in order to hold excessive refuge demand. But

since the demand is sensitive to evacuation distance, the coverage

constraint should be given high priority. To accommodate all these

possible scenarios, we need to relax the capacity constraints of the

ESLM and VAMmaking them soft, meaning that they could be

violated, while the coverage constraints of both models must remain

hard, meaning that they should be strictly met. However, we also

want to minimize such violations, and this problem is addressed in the

following solution procedure. Fig. 3. Real-number encoding and hierarchical binary number encoding.

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H. Li et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 22 (2017) 431446

aries of the dierent levels of shelters and the short vertical dashed that are ignored in their research. We treat a selected shelter as a

lines separate the dierent solutions in both encoding methods. By capacitated bin with an elastic capacity, composed of a base capacity

using hierarchical binary encoding, a Level-3 candidate shelter selec- (actual capacity) and an additional capacity (virtual capacity) that could

tion status can be represented by a binary triplet, where the rst entry hold excessive demand. We then propose a new allocation heuristic

represents whether it is selected as a Level-1shelter (1 represents which aims at reducing the number of shelter-capacity violations.

selected, 0 not selected) and the second and third entries represent the

selections of Level 2 and Level 3 shelters, respectively. This encoding First, all communities are sorted in ascending order based on their

suggests that a lower-level (e.g., Level 1) choice is always in front of a number of potential available shelters. If there is a tie, they are sorted

higher-level (e.g., Level 3) choice in a given selection status (e.g., a in descending order based on demand. Under this scheme, the rst

binary triplet), and the number of level-k choices is related to the community is the hardest one to be allocated because the fewest

number of entries in the triplet. In the same way, we use pairs of entries shelters covered it, while the last community is the easiest one. In the

to represent the selection status of a Level 2 candidate shelter and a next step the communities are allocated sequentially from the rst to

single entry to represent whether a Level 1 candidate shelter is to be the last. Each community is allocated to a shelter that could cover the

built. Although the hierarchical binary number encoding has more community with a maximum residual capacity. After all communities

dimensions than real-number encoding, the CE method is insensitive are allocated to shelters, both the penalty value and the performance

to the cardinality of the solution, so that a large-scale multi-dimen- value of the solution could be computed. In the ESLM, we dene a new

sional solution can be easily tackled with the CE method. penalty variable pjk as follows:

k

2.3.1.2. Feasibility modication. The solutions generated by the

pjk = max k xijk dik (t )j yjh,0, jJ ,

k K .

solution procedure must be checked for their feasibility. If a solution iI h =1 (17)

co-located a shelter (i.e., k K yjk >1), we choose to implement the cut

move, cutting the lower-level choice and retaining the higher-level These new variables have the following construction implication: if

choice of shelter to ensure that k K yjk =1. This result can be achieved a shelter can provide adequate area for the allocated evacuation

by discarding the lower-level choice at every level of examination. demandin other words, the capacity constraint is satisedthen

Furthermore, we propose two other requirements to ensure the pjk will be zero. Otherwise, when the overall allocated demand exceeds

feasibility of solutions, while retaining the coverage and capacity the shelters capacity, the virtual capacity discussed above will be

constraints. We adopt a top-down siting scheme to evaluate every allocated for holding this extra demand. Since in fact the area of a

solution, beginning at the highest level (Level 3) and moving down to candidate shelter is xed, this additional capacity is termed virtual

the lowest level (Level 1), checking the requirements at every level. because it is not real space; this pjk could be seen as a congestion price

that must be paid for holding the excess quantity of victims in a shelter.

To prevent unacceptable crowding in a shelter, we introduced a penalty

We let Jk J be the set of selected shelters at level k . At every level

factor that would increase as the congestion in a shelter rises. With

of evaluation, we rst make sure that the overall area of the selected

these modications, the performance value PV can be expressed as:

shelter exceeds the overall required area by the victims at this level,

that is, PV = (u k j yjk +u k pjk ).

jJ kK (18)

j k dik , k K

Finally, by calculating PV , the objective value of the ESLM as well

j Jk iI (16)

as the penalty value of the capacity violation can be minimized together

in the next step, CE method execution.

and this is a relaxation of constraint (7). The coverage constraints,

however, are hard constraints in the ESLM; they must be satised,

2.3.1.4. CE method execution. After adopting the penalty approach to

with no exceptions. We decide to examine whether a given coverage

introduce the capacity constraint (7) into the objective function, the

matrix (a matrix with values equal to either 0 or 1, with 1 representing

ESLM is converted to a relaxation model that would minimize PV and

a community that can be covered by a given shelter and 0 representing

be subject to all constraints except constraint (7). The constraints of

a community that cannot be covered by that shelter) has an all-zero

this relaxation model constitute the feasible region of variable y , which

rank. A feasible coverage matrix cannot have an all-zero rank; if such a

is represented by @ , and the ESLM is transformed into a 0-1integer

ranking is generated based on these two requirements, then a quick

minimization problem as follows:

projection procedure is used to modify the induced solution in order

to satisfy the feasibility conditions. This projection procedure simply z* = min PV ( y)

y@ (19)

selects shelters randomly from the unselected candidate shelters, until

the feasibility check is met at each level. where z* represents the minimum value of this optimization problem.

We emphasize that some solutions satisfying Eq. (16) could yet

violate constraint (7), which could result in infeasible condition. Recall The main idea of the CE method is to design an eective learning

that when designing the ESLM and VAM, we view the capacity mechanism throughout the process of searching for solutions. It

constraint (7) as a soft constraint, meaning that this constraint could employs the associated stochastic problem (ASP) to estimate a rare

be violated. Yet we want to minimize the number of any such event when searching for the minimum value of the original combina-

violations. This goal can be achieved by giving the violation a torial optimization problem (COP). Since we want to use binary strings

suciently large penalty in the next performance calculation, so that to identify the selection status of candidate shelters, we use a Bernoulli

it would be discarded through CE execution. density function (,u ) to generate these strings. The ASP in our study

can then be represented as:

2.3.1.3. Performance calculation. After the feasibility modication of

solutions generated in the CE execution, we need to calculate their u (PV ( y) z ) = I{PV ( y) z} ( y, u ).

y@ (20)

performance value, which consists of the objective value obtained

through Eq. (4) and the penalty value of any capacity violation. This where I{PV ( y) z} is the indicator function, whose value is 1 if PV ( y) z

problem can be treated as a capacitated bin-packing problem that and 0 otherwise, and u is the probability measure that a random state

determines the most ecient allocation of cargo to limited-capacity Y , drawn under (,u ), has performance value less than or equal to a

bins [9]. In our application, we must consider the coverage constraints given threshold value z . Then, we generate a random sample Y1,,Yk ,

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H. Li et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 22 (2017) 431446

,YN from a dierent density function ( y, v ). In this case, an estimator and less shelter congestion than that generated by Closest Allocation.

of event l that is given by the likelihood ratio estimator The swap move is, simply, to switch two communities between shelters.

N For example, if community i1 is originally allocated to shelter j1 and

1 ( y, u) community i2 is originally allocated to shelter j2 , then after implement

l = I{PV (Yk )z} ,

N k =1

( y, v ) (21) the swap move, community i1 would be allocated to shelter j2 and

community i2 would be allocated to shelter j1. We call this allocation

where ( y, v ) constitutes a change of measure and is chosen such that

method with a swap move the Swap Allocation, and prescribe an

the CE between ( y, u ) and ( y, v ) is minimal.

optimizing requirement for when to implement this move: if inequality

The next objective is to determine the optimal reference parameter

(23) holds, then the shelter allocation choicesi1 and i2 would be

associated with v (PV ( y) z ).The rule is used iteratively to generate a

swapped; otherwise the original allocation would hold.

sequence of reference parameters {v t } and non-increasing levels {z t } for

the estimation of v (PV ( y) z t ). At each iteration, the performance ai1 j1 di1k (t ) + ai2 j2 dik2 (t ) (ai1 j2 di1k (t ) + ai2 j1 dik2 (t )) 0, (23)

values of Y1YN are sorted in ascending order and the threshold value z t

The following procedure describes the details of applying Swap

is chosen as the percentile of these values, where 0 < < 1 is a given

parameter. The new value of z t is then used to generate a new vector Allocation to the VAM. First, the communities are sorted in descending

v t+1. The new vector is, in turn, used to draw a sample population under order based on their refuge demand. Communities would be allocated

a dierent distribution function ( y,v t+1), which will lead to better sequentially to shelters from the largest demand to the smallest

values of z t+1. demand. Under this scheme, a community with a larger demand would

The process terminates when the level value z t does not change over have allocation priority over one with a smaller demand, and would be

a number of iterations or when the vector v t converges to a binary allocated to the nearest shelter, in order to maximize constraint (9):

vector. Moreover, we implemented a smoothed version of the each selected shelter must serve at least one communitys demand

within its coverage radius. We let the nearest shelter JiN for each

updating rule, in such a way that at each iteration t :

community i constitute the nearest shelter set J N . Next, to minimize the

vit +1 = vlit +1+(1 ) vit , (22) evacuation distance for a given unallocated community i1, while

violating the shelter capacity constraint as little as possible,

typically with 0.7 0.9 [2]. The smoothed update prevents the Community i1 should be preferentially allocated to the nearest shelter

method from converging too fast to a degenerate vector, thereby with positive residual capacity. The two possible situations, with their

leading to a more thorough exploration of the search space. corresponding solutions for i1s allocation, are:

2.3.2. The allocation heuristic for victim allocation model 1) There is at least one shelter with positive residual capacity that can

In the VAM, the generated allocation variable xijk can be used to provide service for i1 within its coverage radius. We want to nd the

guide the victims to shelters. This ESLM-generated allocation scheme closest (e.g., j1) of all the shelters that has sucient positive residual

is called the ESLM Allocation. This allocation scheme, however, may capacity for i1. If j1 is the shelter closest to i1 (i.e., j1 =ji1N , ji1N J N ),

allocate the victims to a distant shelter rather than to a nearby one. then i1 would be allocated to j1. Otherwise, if j1 ji1N , we would try to

Another allocation scheme is called the Closest Allocation, it evacu- determine whether the previous allocated community, i2 , and its

ates the victims to the nearest shelter, but without considering the allocated shelter, j2 , could satisfy Eq. (23) with i1 and j1 together,

shelters capacity. The new allocation scheme we propose includes a and if so, then a swap would be implemented (allocate i1 to j2 and i2

swap move, enabling a trade-o between total evacuation travel to j1); otherwise i1 would remained allocated to j1.

distance and shelter congestion. The result should be a shorter total 2) None of the shelters that can cover i1 has any positive residual

evacuation travel distance than that generated by the ESLM allocation,

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H. Li et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 22 (2017) 431446

capacity, i.e., there is already congestion in all the shelters to which Table 4

i1 can be allocated. First, the shelter with the least degree of capacity Hierarchical shelter relevant parameters in this study.

violation (i.e., the least congestion), denoted as j1C , will be selected

Shelter type Required Service Unit Time Service level

as the rst allocated shelter to receive victims from Community i1. area (m2) radius construction (day)

Then, to optimize the evacuation travel distance, we will try to nd a (m) cost (RMB/m2)

previous allocated community, i2 , and its allocated shelter, j2 , that

can satisfy Eq. (23) with i1 and j1C together, and if there is such a LS 15,000 5000 40 1 Level-1,2,3

SS 2,000 2000 15 2 to 10 Level-1, 2

shelter, a swap will be implemented (allocate i1 to j2 and i2 to j1C ); IS 300 1000 5 11 to Level-1

otherwise i1 will remain allocated to j1C . 30

The overall allocation procedure is depicted in Fig. 4. The detailed service are set at 1000 m, 2000 m and 5000 m respectively.

performances of these three allocation schemes will be evaluated and Construction costs for IS, SS and LS are set at 5 RMB/m2, 15 RMB/

compared in Section 3. m2 and 40 RMB/m2, respectively, provided by the SCDO. We list the

relevant parameters in Table 4.

The population sizes of the residential communities are extracted

3. Case study

from the 2010 Economic and Social Development Statistics Yearbook

of Shanghai (http://www.stats-sh.gov.cn/data/toTjnj.xhtml?y=2010e),

Shanghai, which sits on the southern tip of the Yangtze Delta Plain,

and the longitude and latitude of each residential community are

is the largest city in China, with an area of 6340 km2. It has widespread obtained using Google Earth. We identify a total of 303 residential

slowly accumulated soft clay layers, making it a typical soft-soil area

communities. We take the maximum refuge demand for each phase (I

with a fragile geographic environment. Shanghai has great vulnerability to III) for each residential community as its time-varying refuge

because of its proliferation of more than 1200 tall buildings (height demand dik under a Richter scale magnitude 7 earthquake scenario,

100 m) and more than 24.8 million residential population in 2013, as shown in Fig. 5.

and the areas surrounding the city lie on several moderate-scale In Table 5, we set the refuge ratio of the residential population

earthquake faults. Although no serious earthquakes been recorded in according to Fig. 5 and refer to Chen et al. [6] and CEAs standard GB

Shanghai, it is on the list of seismic-risk city specially supervised by the 21734-2008 to determine the required area per capita during the

CEA. Furthermore, the construction and planning of emergency evacuation phase.

shelters in Shanghai have lagged behind those of other major cities We digitize a map of the Xuhui District, in which we can add many

(e.g., Beijing, Wuhan city) in China. The Xuhui District lies in the layers to present the data for communities and shelters. In version 10.1

central area of Shanghai, and has a land area of 54.93 km2 (composed of ArcGIS, we use the Euclidean distance to calculate the distances

of 12 sub-districts and one township) and had a residential population between shelters and communities using the OD Cost Matrix function

of 1,085,130 in 2010. Its population density is 19,755 persons/km2 of the Network Analysis module. Fig. 6a shows the resulting geographic

and it has more than 160 tall buildings. But it has as yet no emergency distribution of residential communities. The dierent-sized circles

shelter, of any level. It is critical, therefore, to plan emergency shelters represent the relative sizes of the residential populations. The geo-

for this district. We therefore choose the Xuhui District as our study graphic distribution of dierent levels of emergency shelter candidates

area. and their corresponding services are presented in Fig. 6b. A circle

represents a Level 1 service, a triangle a Level 2 service, and a square a

3.1. Data processing Level 3 service. With this arrangement, a candidate LS that can provide

all three levels of refuge service is represented by three shapes

The open spaces in the study area, such as public parks, school simultaneously, and similarly, an SS candidate is represented by two

playgrounds, and green spaces, can be the candidate sites for shelters. shapes, and an IS candidate by one shape.

However, to avoid secondary damage to the aected people, high-risk

open spacesthose located less than 500 meters away from disaster- 3.2. Results and analysis

prone areas such as gas stations and chemical factoriesshould be

excluded from the list of shelter candidates. Based on the 2011 relief The results are acquired via Matlab 2013b and then output to ESRI

resources provided by the Shanghai Civil Defense Oce (SCDO), we ArcGIS 10.1 for mapping purposes. By using the CE method to solve

compile a list of 125 candidate sites, after excluding the high-risk ones. the ESLM, among the 125 emergency shelter candidate sites in the

SCDO published the guideline for emergency shelters planning in study area, including 17 LS, 56 SS and 52 IS candidates, 58 shelters are

2008, and it constructs shelters that be divided into three levels by a nally selected to provide refuge service, shown as Fig. 7. Among these

hierarchical way, which is elaborated in Table 3. In this paper, we apply shelters, 22 ISs, 23 SSs and 13 LSs can provide hierarchical refuge

the guideline to the study area, considering the models of our study and service in the Xuhui District during the three post-earthquake phases.

the fact that the Xuhui district has great population and relatively less The total construction cost of these selected emergency shelters is

candidate sites for shelters. The candidate shelter set is further divided 25,108,435 RMB, and the evacuation distance traveled by the victims over

into 17 LSs (providing level-1 to -3 services), 56 SSs (providing level-1 Phase I to Phase III is 1,601,908,539 meter using the allocation result

to -2 services) and 52 ISs (providing level-1 services) based on the site generated by solving the ESLM. The results after the ESLM allocation are

size. In this study, the service radii for Level 1, Level 2 and Level 3 presented in Figs. 8a, 9a and 10a. The many overlapping lines indicate

that the evacuation travel distance has not been optimized, although the

Table 3 obtained allocation result satises the coverage constraints. Therefore, we

The classification of emergency shelters in Shanghai.

try the other two allocation schemesClosest Allocation and Swap

Shelter level Required area Service radius Time Service facility Allocationin order to determine which allocation is best tted for this

(m2) (m) (day) emergency scenario. In Figs. 810, we use blue lines to represent the

victim allocation, and circular dashed lines to represent the service radii

I 15000 5000 > 30 Comprehensive

for the dierent service levels. It can be easily seen that there are fewer

II 4000 1000 10 to 30 General

III 2000 500 < 10 Basic overlapping lines in these two alternative allocation schemes, meaning

that these allocations would result in shorter evacuation travel distances

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H. Li et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 22 (2017) 431446

Table 5 the shelters, indicating they could hold more refuge demand than their

and refuge ratio for the three phases during evacuation period. ocial capacity. Based on the variation of shelter area per person and

the CEA standard, we categorize shelter congestion into three states: no

Phase I Phase II Phase III

congestion, light congestion and heavy congestion; the classication

Required area per capita (m2) 0.5 2 3 criteria for the dierent phases are shown in Table 7. These three

Refuge ratio 99% 37% 20% congestion degrees are color-coded as follows: green represents no

congestion, yellow, light congestion and red, heavy congestion. It is

important to note that the congestion degree of a given shelter may

than in the ESLM allocation. Table 6 shows the calculated results of the

change over time because the area occupied per person will change

evacuation distance over the three phases, using the three dierent

during the various evacuation phases.

allocation schemes.

A rough overview of Figs. 810 reveals that Closest Allocation and

Since capacity violations are allowed, congestion is introduced to

Swap Allocation would result in more congestion in shelters than the

Fig. 6. Distribution maps of the residential communities and the shelter candidates.

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H. Li et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 22 (2017) 431446

conclusion that Closest Allocation produces the least evacuation

distance and the most shelter congestion, while the ESLM allocation

creates the largest evacuation distance and the least shelter congestion.

Swap Allocation, though, can obtain a balanced result with respect to

both evacuation distance traveled by the victims and emergency shelter

congestion. We therefore recommend Swap Allocation for guiding

victim allocation during the evacuation phase.

estimations of refuge demand. In Section 3.2, we view the hierarchical

refuge demand as a varying quantity through the dierent phases.

Current policy uses approximately 30% of a residential population as

the estimation of number of the residential people to plan emergency

shelters in China [35]. Fig. 12a shows the unchanging trend of refuge

demand under this estimation. Compared to the time-varying refuge

demand estimation, whose trend is presented in Fig. 12b, the unvary-

ing estimation of shelter demand has lower immediate and short-term

demands but more long-term demand.

We make unvarying refuge demand as an input to the ESLM and

run it, producing a total construction cost for emergency shelters of

35,290,075 RMB. This result is 40.55% higher than the result under

the time-varying refuge demand, and with respect to the number of

victims, the hierarchical shelters under the time-varying refuge de-

mand estimation can service more victims than under the unvarying

estimation53% of the residential population (averaged by refuge

ratio: 99%, 37% and 20% in three phases) under the time-varying

refuge demand, but only 30% of the residential population under the

unvarying refuge demand. Therefore, using the time-varying refuge

Fig. 7. Distribution map of the result of hierarchical emergency shelter planning.

demand estimation to plan hierarchical emergency shelters can pro-

duce a better result because more refuge demand is satised with lower

ESLM allocation, as more candidate sites are red or yellow for those

shelter construction cost. The results of shelter selection (12 LSs, 12

allocations. Fig. 11, however, shows a detailed comparison for shelter

SSs and 15 ISs) under both unvarying refuge demand and time-varying

congestion status among those three allocation schemes. From Phase I

refuge demand are illustrated in Fig. 13.

through Phase III, Closest Allocation always shows the lowest value for

Fig. 13 also shows that the number of selected shelters using the

evacuation distance (from the line chart), and ESLM allocation always

unvarying refuge demand is less than for the time-varying refuge

shows the least shelter congestion (from the bar chart). However, Swap

demand. Furthermore, Table 8 shows that more LS and SS areas need

Allocation produces a lower value of evacuation distance than ESLM

to be built, and the resulting higher cost per square meter causes an

allocation, and also results in less shelter congestion than Closest

overall higher construction cost while producing fewer shelters. After

Allocation.

the locations of emergency shelters are determined, we use Swap

Fig. 8. Comparison of the three allocation schemes during phase I.

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H. Li et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 22 (2017) 431446

Fig. 9. Comparison of the three allocation schemes during phase II.

Fig. 10. Comparison of the three allocation schemes during phase III.

Table 6 Table 7

The evacuation distance for different phases. Shelter congestion status (m2/person) classication for the three phases.

Allocation Phase I (m) Phase II (m) Phase III (m) Total evacuation Phase Heavy congestion Light congestion No congestion

scheme distance (m)

I < 0.25 [0.25, 0.5] > 0.5

ESLM 598,761,672 479,481,234 523,665,633 1,601,908,539 II <1 [1, 2] >2

Allocation III < 1.5 [1.5, 3] >3

Closest 351,767,530 187,769,925 165,510,947 705,048,402

Allocation

Swap 425,550,950 222,941,426 213,217,885 861,710,261 shown in Table 9. It can be seen that the evacuation distance traveled

Allocation

by the victims under the time-varying refuge demand estimation is

greater than under the unvarying estimation during every phase except

Allocation to allocate the victims to shelters. Figs. 1416 compare the Phase III. It is obvious that the more the refuge demand, the greater

Swap Allocation results for the two refuge demand estimations from the evacuation distance. However, if this evacuation distance is

Phase I through Phase III. averaged over the refuge demand, the time-varying estimation pro-

Regarding the congestion status in shelters, the time-varying duced less per capita evacuation distance in all three phases.

estimation performs worse than the unvarying estimation except for Finally, from the comparison of the two estimations for refuge

Phase III, in which there are two heavy congestion sites. The results demand, we should select the time-varying estimation, as it is more

of computing the evacuation distance under the two estimations are representative of an actual evacuation situation. Furthermore, the

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H. Li et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 22 (2017) 431446

Fig. 11. Statistical charts of congestion status and evacuation distance for the three allocation schemes for the three phases.

Fig. 12. The comparison diagram of two estimations on refuge demand.

Fig. 13. Comparison of results with emergency shelter planning under two refuge demand estimations.

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H. Li et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 22 (2017) 431446

Table 8 coverage and capacity constraints, while the second-stage model deals

The area and cost of hierarchical shelters under two estimations. with the victim allocation problem, to minimize the total evacuation

travel distance while also considering the congestion in shelters, over

Shelter type Time-varying refuge demand Unvarying refuge demand

the dierent post-earthquake phases. These models are then applied to

Refuge Construction cost Refuge Construction cost emergency shelter planning in the Xuhui District of Shanghai city.

area (m2) (RMB) area (m2) (RMB) Analyzing the results, we compare three dierent allocation schemes to

determine which is best tted for an emergency scenario, and compare

LS 561,484 22,459,360 841,402 33,656,080

SS 152,595 2,288,925 82,948 1,244,220 the eects of the time-varying refuge demand estimation with those of

IS 72,030 360,150 77,955 389,775 the unvarying refuge demand estimation.

Total: 25,108,435 Total: 35,290,075 Our study oers four main contributions to future emergency shelter

planning. First, we take into consideration the temporal variation in needs

and quantities of the victims, when planning the emergency shelter

system. We also design a shelter system that could provide dierent levels

time-varying refuge demand estimation is a more cost-eective shelter of service after an earthquake, creating a hierarchical structure of shelters.

planning method because it reduces shelter construction cost and These two points are critical to emergency shelter planning. Second, we

evacuation travel distance, and produces more tolerable congestion in propose a hierarchical emergency shelter location model and a victim

shelters, compared to the unvarying estimation. allocation model under the time-varying refuge demand estimation, to

minimize the total construction cost of shelters and the evacuation travel

4. Conclusion distance of victims. Third, we develop a novel cross-entropy method to

tackle the location model and a Swap Allocation scheme to solve the

This study considers hierarchical emergency shelter planning for allocation model. Finally, in the empirical case of the Xuhui District of

earthquake disasters in urban areas, taking into consideration the time- Shanghai, the Swap Allocation scheme makes a trade-o between the total

varying refuge demand estimation. Because the number of victims and evacuation travel distance and congestion in emergency shelters, as a

their needs in emergency shelters change over the post-earthquake better way to allocate the victims during an emergency period, than either

period, a hierarchical system of emergency shelters should be planned, Closest Allocation or ESLM allocation. We also nd that emergency

to provide dierent levels of refuge service over dierent phases of shelter planning based on a time-varying refuge demand estimation

evacuation. Once the shelter locations and levels are determined, the would reduce construction costs, compared to using the unvarying refuge

corresponding victim allocation must then be addressed. Therefore, we demand estimation, in an empirical case. Although the time-varying

model these problems as a two-stage mathematical programming estimation results in more immediate and short-term refuge demand than

model. The rst-stage model formulates the shelter location problem the unvarying estimation, it reduces the individual evacuation travel

to optimize the total shelter construction cost, considering their distance and produces tolerable congestion in emergency shelters.

Fig. 14. Comparison of the two refuge demand estimations using Swap Allocation during Phase I.

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H. Li et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 22 (2017) 431446

Fig. 15. Comparison of the two refuge demand estimations using Swap Allocation during Phase II.

Fig. 16. Comparison of the two refuge demand estimations using Swap Allocation during Phase III.

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[10] R.A. Gerrard, R.L. Church, Closest assignment constraints and location models:

Phase Time-varying refuge demand Unvarying refuge demand

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[11] F. Hu, W. Xu, X. Li, A modied particle swarm optimization algorithm for optimal

Evacuation Per capita Evacuation Per capita (m/ allocation of earthquake emergency shelters, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 26 (2012)

distance (m) (m/person) distance (m) person) 16431666.

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