1

Market Pulse
July 2017
 Survey Methodology
Monthly online survey of more than 300 California
REALTORS.
The survey was sent via email to a random sample of 10,000
REALTORS throughout California. The sample represented
the geographical distribution of C.A.R. membership across
the state.
Respondents are asked about their last closed transaction
and business activity in their market area for the previous
month.
 3

Market Conditions
 Floor Calls Decrease for the Third Month
Index (>50 is positive)

80
70
60 54 54

50 52
Index

40
30
20
10
0

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Listing Appointments/Client Presentations Down
Index (>50 is positive)
80

70

60
55 57 54
50
Index

40

30

20

10

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Open House Traffic Up Year Over Year

90
Index (>50 is positive)

80

70
63
60
52 56
50
Index

40

30

20

10

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 All Cash Purchases Increase From a Year Ago
Index (>50 is positive)
70

60 55 54

50
45
40
Index

30

20

10

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Biggest Concern is Lack of Inventory
Lack of Inventory 30%

Decline in housing affordability 24%

Inflated home prices 18%

Housing bubble 7.4%

Slow down in economic growth 4.4%

Rising interest rates 3.7%

Lending & financing 2.6%

Policy & regulations 1.5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Concerns About Inventory Increases YTY
Inventory Affordability
60%

50%

40% 38%

30%
30%
24%

20% 23% 24%

22%

10%

0%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Affordability and Prices are the Biggest
Concerns for REALTORS
Prices (Affordability, Prices, Bubble) Inventory

60%
49%
50% 46% 46%

40%
38%
30%
30%
20% 24%

10%

0%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Expectations Increase from Last Year
Index (>50 is positive)
90
80
70
60
52 52 55
50
Index

40
30
20
10
0

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 12

Last Transaction
 Fewer Properties Selling Below Asking
Price from a Year Ago
Net % of Properties Selling Below/Above Asking Price

10%
3%
0%
-2% -1%
-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Transactions Below and Above Asking Virtually
Unchanged from Last Year
Below At Over

100%
90%
39%
80% 34%
35%
70%
60%
29%
50% 30%
40% 25%

30%
36%
20% 36%
10% 36%

0%

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Premium Paid Increases
Average

14.0%

12.0%

10.0% 9.3%
7.8%
8.0%
6.8%
6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Percentage Paid Below Asking Price Improves

0%

-5%

-10%
-9.8%

-13%
-15% -14%

-20%

-25%
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Multiple Offers Down from a Year Ago
80%
74%
70% 66% 64%
60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Number of Offers Flat from Last Year
4.0 Average
3.5
3.5

3.0 2.8 2.8

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 One and Two Offers Majority of Transactions
Jul-16 Jul-17

40% 36%
34%
35%

30%
24%
25% 22% 21%
20%
13%
15%
10% 11%
8.5% 9.5%
10% 6.8%
4.3%
5%

0%
1 2 3 4 5 6+
Number of Offers
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Proportion of 3+ Down From Last Year
80%

70%

60% 55%

50% 44%

40%
40%
30%

20%

10%

0%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Market Competitiveness Increases in Most Price
Segments
Jul-16 Jul-17
60%
57%
Percentage of Properties Receiving 3+

60% 53%
50% 50%
46% 47% 46%
50%
38%
40% 35% 36% 35% 36%
33%
Offers

30%
20% 22%
20%

10%

0%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Listing Price Reductions Decrease
35%

30%
26%
25% 24%
21%
20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Proportion of Buyers Who Were Renters Lowest Since
Summer 2014
60%

50%
43% 42%
40%

29%
30%

20%

10%

0%

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Fewer Sellers Are Becoming Renters From a Year Ago
25%

20%

16%
15% 14%

10%
10%

5%

0%

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Share of First-time Buyers Decreases
45% % First-time Buyers Long Run Average (32%)
40% 38%

35% 34%

30%

25% 27%
20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Majority Purchases are Primary Residences
Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Q: What was the intended/actual use of the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Share of Vacation and Investment
Properties Inches Up From Last Year
Investment Vacation home
30%

25%

20% 6.4%
2.8% 5.9%
15%

10%
16% 17%

5% 12%

0%

Q: What was the intended/actual use of the property?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 Proportion of International Buyers Increases YTY

% International Buyers Long Run Average (6.2%)

12%

10%
8.4%
7.9%
8% 6.8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 What are REALTORS Saying?

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to share with us--such
as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, or other topics?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey

 What are REALTORS Saying?

Most people are struggling to get cash to put down.

Buyers are stepping back, waiting for inventory to increase.

The market has cooled down with fewer multiple offers.

The heat of the summer and earlier start of school have

affected the market.

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to share with us--such as
information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, or other topics?

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Market Pulse Survey