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MBA
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Reuters
OrixShinsei
DeloitteProtiviti10
FX/Derivatives TraderPortfolio
ManagerFX

SPECIAL EVENT


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1.2.
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2012

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Deloitte

(Eddie Chiu)
2012

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WTO







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20



KPMG

10168
2012

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2424
20176FED8
1%
2008


2008

Trader
2008


2017

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USD/JPY

USD/JPY
9
10
JPYUSD/
JPY
Trump

JPYUSD/JPY






Trader


DVD
DVD

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DVD

PBbanker



20
NTU

22K




2017

xi
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USD/JPY
JPY
USD/JPY10



USD/JPY=8510
0.110 pips10,0001
100 pips100,000USD/JPY=120
85120353,500 pips
35100,000=3,500,000

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912
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2015

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2011


10

14






IMF
10


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3
45
235
33,000








3
20%



3.5%



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2000









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----------------------------002
-------------------------------005
-------------------------006
FX -------------------------------------------008
--------------------------------------------012
-------------------------017

1
----------------------020

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----------------------------024
----------------------------------025
----025
USD -------------------------------------------027
JPY --------------------------------------------039
EUR--------------------------------------------047
GBP -------------------------------------------051
AUD -------------------------------------------055
CHF -------------------------------------061
ZAR --------------------------------------------063
-----------------------------------------------------066

2
----------------------------------067

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Support LineResistance
Line -----------------------------------------------------070
Ichimoku ----------------------------072
Simple Moving Average,
SMA ----------------------------------------------------075
Exponential Moving Average,
EMA ----------------------------------------------------076
Moving Average
Convergence Divergence, MACD -------------076
BBBollinger Bands, BB ---------------------077
MomentumROC -------------------------------------078

3
Range Trading Strategy ------081

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-------------------------------086
----------------------------086
FX ----------------------------------------090
-------------------091

4
-------------------------------------095

--------------------------------------------------------098

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Mutual Fund
REITs
Hedge FundPrivate Equity



Foreign ExchangeForexFX
FX


BIS47
19

24
(Professional Traders)24
EURO MONEY2011
3Deutsche Bank
BarclaysUBS9


Amateur Traders
33

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Globalization

Galaxy









Default

201110
8.3%1108.5%
23102%
4
003
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U.S. Treasury Bills, T-Bills201185


Standard & Poors
AAAAA+1941AAA
70
20118

CAPMCapital Asset Pricing Model

Risk-free Interest Rate
T-Bills







004
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5

2011
3

Principal Reserve Currency


USD/JPY
6








Interbank Market

005
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8A


Dirty
Floating Rate


FX











006
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FX

EPSP/E P/B
FX
Pairs










2
15

2001


FX2003
007
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Foreign Exchange Broker


FX
10

FX

24
1998


FX
7
24


24




Leverage
Margin

008
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40020005

USD/
JPYFX10USD/
JPY80101
810,000USD80800,000YEN
800,000YEN/100,000YEN8

400
1:1001:2001:400
1:100100100
1095


3


1:501:25
1:10050
202011FX
25

50-100

009
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Overnight Swap PointSwap
Rollover
17:0017:00
FX2
A
A
USD/JPY
10

1210120
141410
140
Long


Short

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1-1
Pair Swap Short (YEN) Swap Long (YEN)
EUR/USD 20 16
USD/JPY 14 12
GBP/USD 12 8
USD/CHF 7 3
EUR/CHF 27 18
AUD/USD 106 86
USD/CAD 16 -21
NZD/USD 50 37
EUR/GBP 1 0
EUR/JPY 29 24
GBP/JPY 31 26
CHF/JPY 4 1
AUD/JPY 115 104
CAD/JPY 40 27
NZD/JPY 106 90
Resource: FXCM, 2011



24
24


FX

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Event

Factors






Scenario
Unemployment Rate





4
Radical Move




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Risk Control & Risk Management
ExposureFX


FX



GBP/
JPY8GBP/USD9GBP/CHF


102USD/JPY

1. 1USD80Yen100,000 USD1USD82Yen
[100,000(8280)]/822439 USD
2. 1USD80Yen100,000 USD1USD78Yen
[100,000(8078)]/782564 USD

100,000 USD
5%5,000 USD
100,000 USD100,000
USD/5,000 USD20

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2
10,000 USD
% 100(10,000
USD 2,564 USD)/5000 USD100148%
70%50%


FX





Federal Funds Rate20062007
4.5%5.25%20090.00%0.25%





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2005FX8
8
1









Proprietary Trader


200512
8Mizuho Securities Co.
161
161

015
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407


1


FX











FX
2



Trend

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USD
USD

USD/JPY
JPY/USD
USD/JPY80
1801
USD/JPY79
8079
8079EUR/USD
EUR1



USD/JPY
781
76
7876
017
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178
762011Q3USD/
JPY




Pips


100
21
4
201112

AUD/JPY77.31

1002

AUD/JPY77.31
0.01

GBP/USD1.5672
EUR/CHF1.2358
018
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1
4GBP/USD1.5672
0.0001

1-2

USD TWD
JPY CNY
EUR HKD
GBP KRW
AUD SGD
NZD IDR
CHF INR
CAD THB
ZAR PHP
BRL MYR
RUB TRY

019
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21.
2.











1
ReutersBloombergDow Jones
Morning Star



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. -- ,2017.08

ISBN 978-986-451-100-6

1.2.3.

563.23 106011157

3GA4

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