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I n t r od u c t i o n t o R e l i a b i l i t y
Engineering

S e c o n dE d i t i o n

E. E. Lewis
Department of Mechanical Engineering
I{orthw estern Unia ersity
Euanston, Illinois
JuIy, 1994

John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

New York Chichester Brisbane Toronto Singapore
 Contents

1 INTRODUCTION I

1.1 Reliability Defined I

1.2 Performance, Cost and Reliability
1.3 Quality, Reliability and Safery 4
1.4 Preview 8

2 PROBABILITY AND SAMPLING l0

2.1 Introduction 10
2.2 Probability Concepts 10
Probability Axioms 11
Combinations of Events 13
2.3 Discrete Random Variables l7
Properties of Discrete Variables 1B
The Binomial Distribution 27
The Poisson Distribution 24
2.4 Attribute Sampling 25
Sampling Distribution 26
Confidence Inten'als 28
2.5 Acceptance Testing 30
Binomial Sampling 31
The PoissonLimit 32
Multiple Sampling Methods 33

3 CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES 40

3.1 Introduction 40
3.2 Properties of Random Variables 40

xllt
xiv Contents

Probability Distribution Functions 4l

Characteristics of a Probability Distribution 43
Transformations of Variables 46
3.3 Normal and Related Distributions 48
The Normal Distribution 48
The Dirac Delta Distribution 52
The Lognormal Distribution 53
3.4 Weibull and Extreme Value Distributions 57
Weibull Distribution 57
Extreme Value Distributions 59

4 QUALITY AND ITS MEASURES 68

4.1 Quality and Reliability 68
4.2 The Taguchi Methodology 70
Quality Loss Measures 7L
Robust Design 76
The Design of Experiments 8l
4.3 The Six Sigma Methodology 88
ProcessCapability Indices 89
\freld and System Complexity 92
Six Sigma Criteria 94
Implementation 96

5 DATA AND DISTRIBUTIONS 102

5.1 Introduction 102
5.2 Nonparametric Methods 103
Histograms 104
Sample Statistics 106
Rank Statistics 107
5.3 Probability Plotting 108
Least Squares Fit 1l I
Weibull Distribution Plotting 113
Extreme Value Distribution Plotting ll4
Normal Distribution Plotting 116
Lognormal Distribution Plotting ll8
Goodness-oFit 120
5.4 Point and Interval Estimates 120
Estimate of the Mean 124
Normal and Lognormal Parameters 125
Extreme Value and Weibull Parameters 127
5.5 StatisticalProcessControl 130

6 RELIABILITY AND RATES OF FAILURE I38

6.1 Introduction 138
6.2 Reliability Characterization 139
 Contents xv

Basic Definitions 139

The Bathtub Curve 142
6.3 Constant Failure Rate Model 145
The Exponential Distribution 146
Demand Failures l+7
Time Deterrninations 150
6.4 Time-Dependent Failure Rates 151
The Normal Distribution 153
The Lognormal Distribution I54
The Weibull Distribution 156
6.5 Component Failures and Failure Modes 159
Failure Mode Rates 159
Component Counts 161
6.6 Replacements 163

7 LOADS, CAPACITY, AND RELIABILITY L75

7.I Introduction 775

7.2 Reliability with a Single Loading I77
L o ad A pplic at io n 177
Definitions 179
7.3 Reliability and Safety Factors 182
Normal Distributions 183
Lognormal Distributions 188
Combined Distributions l8g
7.4 Repetitive Loading 191
Loading VariabilitY 191
Variable CapacitY 794
7.5 The Bathtub Curvs-Bsensidered 196
Single Failure Modes L97
Combined Failure Modes 200

8 RELIABILITY TESTING 208

8.1 Introduction 208

8.2 Reliability Enhancement Procedures 2L0
Reliability Growth Testing 211
Environmental Stress Testing 2I3
8.3 Nonparametric Methods 215
Ungrouped Data 216
Grouped Data 218
8.4 Censored Testing 2I9
Singly Censored l)ata 220
Multiply Censored Data 22L
8.5 Accelerated Life Testing 227
Compressed-Time Testing 227
Advanced-StressTesting 230
Acceleration Models 235
 Contents

8.6 Constant Failure Rate Estimates 236

Censoring on the Right 237
MTTF Estimates 239
Confidence Intervals 241

9 REDUNDANCY 252
9.1 Introduction 252
9.2 Active and Standby Redundancy 254
Active Parallel 254
Standby Parallel 255
Constant Failure Rate Models 255
9.3 Redundancy Limitations 258
Common Mode Failures 258
Load Sharing 260
Switching and Standby Failures 262
Cold, Warm, and Hot Standby 263
9.4 Multiply Redundant Systems 264
| / ^{ Active Redundancy 264
7/ I\f Standby Redundancy 267
nx/ ,,IActive Redundancy 268
9.5 Redundancy Allocation 270
High- and Low-Level Redundancy 272
Fail-Safe and Fail-to-Danger 274
Voting Systems 276
9.6 Redundancy in Complex Configurations 278
Series-Parallel Configurations 279
Linked Configurations 281

IO MAINTAINED SYSTEMS 290

10.1 Introduction 290
10.2 Preventive Maintenance 297
Idealized Maintenance 291
Imperfect Maintenance 296
Redundant Components 299
10.3 Corrective Maintenance 300
Availability 300
Maintainabiliry 301
10.4 Repair: Revealed Failures 303
Constant Repair Rates 304
Constant Repair Times 307
10.5 Testing and Repair: Unrevealed Failures 308
Idealized Periodic Tests 309
Real Periodic Tests 311
10.6 SysremAvailabiliry 313
Revealed Failures 314
Unrevealed Failures 317
 Contents xvii

II FAILURE INTERACTIONS 326

11.1 Introduction 326

17.2 Markov Analysis 326
Two Independent Components 328
Load-Sharing Systems 337
11.3 Reliability with Standby Systems 334
Idealized System 334
Failures in the Standby State 337
Switching Failures 339
Primary System Repair 342
I7.4 Multicomponent Systems 344
Multicomponent Markov Formulations 345
Combinations of Subsystems 348
11.5 Availability 349
Standby Redundancy 350
Shared Repair Crews 354

12 SYSTEM SAFETY ANALYSIS 367

I2.1 Introduction 361

12.2 Product and Equipment Hazards 362
I2.3 Human Error 366
Routine Operations 368
Emergency Operations 370
72.4 Methods of Analysis 372
Failure Modes and Effects Analysis 372
Event Trees 374
Fault Trees 376
12.5 Fault-Tree Construction 377
Nomenclature 379
Fault Classification 382
Examples 383
12.6 Direct Evaluation of Fault Trees 389
Qualitative Evaluation 391
Quantitative Evaluation 393
72.7 Fault-Tree Evaluation by Cut Sets 396
Qualitative Analysis 396
Quantitative Analysis 400

APPENDICES

A USEFUL MATHEMATICAL REI-ATIONSHIPS 408

B BINOMIAL SAMPLING CTIARTS 4IT
C STANDARD NORMAL CDF 4T5
D PROBABILITY GRAPH PAPERS 4I7
ANSWERS TO ODD-NUMBERED EXERCISES 425
INDEX 429