Professional Documents
Culture Documents
PART A
Though not perfect, profits the most efficient and reliable measure of the
efficiency of a firm
decisionmakers, how their choices are coordinated by markets, and how prices
and demand are determined in individuals.
PART B
1) What are the significance of business economics? .(April/May 2013)
a) Satisfying human wants with scarce resources.
b) It explains the relationship between the producer and customer the labour and the
management, without the knowledge of the working of the economic system,
administrative will not be effective and it may even be impossible.
c) It given the businessmen and industrialists the knowledge of modern methods of
production and production at low cost.
d) Modern governments are actively engaged in economic planning.
e) The knowledge of economics is very essential for the finance Minister; it helps in
framing the just system of taxation.
Profitability
Minimum cost maximum profit.
Productivity:
Employee training, equipment maintenance and new equipment purchase all go into
company productivity.
Customer service:
Keep your customer happy should be a primary objectives of your organization
Employee Retention:
Maintain a productive and positive employee environment improve retention,
Core values:
The companys core values become the objectives necessary to create a
positive corporate culture
Growth:
Historical data and future projection.
Maintaining financing:
Maintaining your ability to finance operations long term as well as short term.
Marketing:
Marketing is more than creating advertising and getting customer input on product
change.
5) Write the difference between business Economics and Managerial economics. (
Nov/Dec 2013)
a. Survival
b. Growth
c. Prestige
a. Survival:
To survive means, to live longer. Survival is the primary and fundamental objective of
every business firm.
b. Growth:
It is the second major business objective after survival. Business takes place through
expansion and diversification. Business growth benefits promoters, shareholders,
consumers and the national economy
c. Prestige/Recognition:
Prestige means goodwill or reputation arising from success or achievement. This is the third
organic objective after survival and growth. To satisfy the human wants of the society
Robin Marris in his book The Economic Theory of Managerial Capitalism (1964)
The managers aim at the maximization of the growth rate of the firm and
the shareholders aim at the maximization of their dividends and share
prices. To establish a link between such a growth rate and the share prices of
the firm, Marris develops a balanced growth model in which the manager
chooses a constant growth rate at which the firms sales, profits, assets, etc.
grow.
As the managers are concerned more about their job security and growth
of the firm, they will choose that growth rate which maximizes the market
value of shares, give satisfactory dividends to shareholders, and avoid the
take-over of the firm. On the other hand, the owners (shareholders) also want
balanced growth of the firm because it ensures fair return on their capital. Thus
the goals of the managers may coincide with that of owners of the firm and both
try to achieve balanced growth of the firm.
PART C
1) Describe the nature, scope and significance of business economics. (April/May 2013)
Nature of Business Economics
Traditional economic theory has developed along two lines; viz.,
normative and positive.
Normative focuses on prescriptive statements, and help establish rules
aimed at attaining the specified goals of business.
However, if the firms are to establish valid decision rules, they must
thoroughly understand their environment.
Under Economics we study only the Managerial Economics we have to study both
economic aspect of the problems the economic and non-economic aspects of
the problems
Economics studies principles Managerial Economics we study mainly the
underlying rent, wages, interest and Principles of profit only.
profits
a. Survival
b. Growth
c. Prestige
a. Survival:
To survive means, to live longer. Survival is the primary and fundamental objective of
every business firm.
b. Growth:
It is the second major business objective after survival. Business takes place through
expansion and diversification. Business growth benefits promoters, shareholders,
consumers and the national economy.
c. Prestige/Recognition:
Prestige means goodwill or reputation arising from success or achievement. This is the
third organic objective after survival and growth. To satisfy the human wants of the
society
4) What are the social responsibilities of a business concern? Explains in detail. ( Nov/Dec
2013,Apr-May 2016)
Social responsibility has been construed as the social and economic goals of
the business units.
Responsibility involves efficiency in production.
Distributing them at the lowest possible price.
Utilizing the resource effectively,
The responsibility to customers
Share holders and
The community.
This may be include Education, training, medical care, health cultural activity
and control pollution.
PART - A
PART B
1) What is demand scheduled? Explain with suitable diagram. .(April/May 2013)
2) Briefly explain Income elasticity of demand. ? (Nov/Dec 2013)
3) Explain about demand curve. ? (Nov/Dec 2013)
4) What are the causes of changes in demand? .(April/May 2013)
5) What are the factors affecting demand?
6) Write Assumption of demand law.
7) Write reason for demand curve slope download. (Nov/Dec 2016)
8) Explain exceptions from the demand law? (Apr-2014, 2016)
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PART C
1) Elucidate the different types of demand elasticity. What their uses? ?(Nov/Dec 2013)
2) Discuss about the measurement of elasticity of demand. ? (Nov/Dec 2013, 2016, Apr-
May2016)
3) What is demand law? Explain. (Nov/Dec 2013)
4) What are the factors influencing Demand? Explain.
5) Discuss about demand analysis? (Nov 2014)
6) Describe the various methods of demand forecasting?(APR-May 2015)
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The break-even point (BEP) in economics, business, and specifically cost accounting,
is the point at which total cost and total revenue are equal: there is no net loss or
gain, and one has "broken even." A profit or a loss has not been made,
Tea
Coffee
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9. Define profit?
A financial benefit that is realized when the amount of revenue gained from a business
activity exceeds the expenses, costs and taxes needed to sustain the activity. Any profit that
is gained goes to the business's owners, who may or may not decide to spend it on the
business.
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Profit Types
Normal Profit: The first notion of profit is the opportunity cost of using
entrepreneurial abilities in the production of a good, or the profit that could have been
received by entrepreneurship in another business venture. Like the opportunity costs
of other resources, normal profit is a cost that is deducted from revenue when
determining economic profit.
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The law of DMU operates under certain specific conditions. Economists call them the
assumptions of this law.
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4. Continuous consumption:
It is assumed that consumption is a continuous process. For example, if one ice-cream is
consumed in the morning and another in the evening, then the second ice-cream may
provide equal or higher satisfaction as compared to the first one.
5. No change in Quality:
Quality of the commodity consumed is assumed to be uniform. A second cup of ice-cream
with nuts and toppings may give more satisfaction than the first one, if the first ice-cream
was without nuts or toppings.
6. Rational consumer:
The consumer is assumed to be rational who measures, calculates and compares the utilities
of different commodities and aims at maximizing total satisfaction.
7. Independent utilities:
It is assumed that all the commodities consumed by a consumer are independent. It means,
MU of one commodity has no relation with MU of another commodity. Further, it is also
assumed that one persons utility is not affected by the utility of any other person.
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(v) Change in the organization of an industry, like the creation of a monopoly, trust, or
cartel or breaking up of a monopoly, cartel, etc.
To carry cut his innovative function, the entrepreneur needs two things. First, he must
have the technical knowledge to produce new products or new services. Second, since the
introduction of innovation presupposes the diversion of the means of production from the
existing to new channels, the entrepreneur must also possess the power of disposal over the
factors of production.
The necessary command over the productive factor is provided by the monetary factor
in the form of credit. The entrepreneur secures funds for his project not from saving out of his
own income but from the crediting bank system.
Thus, money capital and bank credit play a significant role in the Schumpeterian
theory. According to Schumpeter, credit is important only in so far as the innovation is
concerned in the context of a progressing economy, and only if the innovator requires credit
to carry on his function, i.e., innovative activity. In the absence of innovation, in a circular
flow of money economy, where Says Law of Market operates in toto, no credit is required.
The law of equi marginal utility was presented in 19th century by an Australian
economists H. H. Gossen. It is also known as law of maximum satisfaction or law of
substitution or Gossen's second law. A consumer has number of wants. He tries to spend
limited income on different things in such a way that marginal utility of all things is equal.
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When he buys several things with given money income he equalizes marginal utilities of all
such things. The law of equi marginal utility is an extension of the law. The consumer can
get maximum utility by allocating income among commodities in such a way that last dollar
spent on each item provides the same marginal utility.
Limitations:
1. The law is not applicable in case of knowledge. Reading of books provides more
satisfaction and knowledge to the scholar. Different books provide variety of
knowledge and satisfaction.
2. The law is not applicable in case of indivisible goods. The consumer is unable to
divide the goods to adjust units of utility derived from consumption of goods.
3. There is no measurement of utility. It is psychological concept. It is not possible to
express it into quantitative form.
4. The law does not hold well in case fashion and customs. The people like to spend
money on birthdays, marriages and deaths.
5. The does not hold well in case of very low income. The maximization of utility is not
possible due to low income.
Importance:
The law of equi marginal utility is helpful in the field of production. The producer has
limited resources. He uses limited resources to purchase production factors. He tries
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to equalize marginal utility of all factors. He wishes to get maximum output and
profit.
National income is distributed among factors of production according to this law. An
entrepreneur can pay factors of production equal to marginal product measured in
money terms. He will substitute one factor for another until marginal productivity of
all factors is equal to prices of their services.
The law is used in the field of exchange. The people like to exchange a commodity
having low utility with a commodity having high utility. There is maximum benefit
from exchange of commodities. The law is helpful in exchange of wealth, trade,
import and export.
The law is applicable in consumption. A rational consumer tries to get maximum
satisfaction when he spends his limited resources on various things. He tries to
equalize weighted marginal utility of all the things.
The law is applicable in public finance. The government can spend its revenue to get
maximum social advantage. The marginal utility of each dollar spent in one sector
must be equal to marginal utility derived from all other sectors.
Prof. JB Clark propounded the dynamic theory of profit and according to him; profit is
the difference between the price and the cost of production of the commodity. But the profit
is the result of dynamic change. In a dynamic state, five generic changes are going on, every
one of which reacts on structure of society. They are (1) population is increasing (2) Capital
is increasing (3) Methods of production are improving (4) The forms of industrial
establishment are changing the less efficient shops etc. are passing from the field and the
most efficient are surviving (5) The wants of consumers are multiplying.
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repeat itself for ever. In such a static state, there is perfectly competitive equilibrium. The
price of each product just equals its cost of production and there is no profit.
Only exogenous factors like weather conditions can cause changes in the circular flow
position. In the circular flow position goods are being produced at a constant rate. This
routine work is being performed by the salaried managers. It is the entrepreneur who disturbs
the channels of this circular floe by the introduction of an innovation. Thus Schumpeter
assigns the role of an innovator not to the capitalist but to the entrepreneur.
The risk theory of profit is associated with FB Hawley who regards risk taking as the
main function of the entrepreneur. Profit is the residual income which the entrepreneur
receives for the reason that he assumes risks. The entrepreneur exposes his business to risk
and receives in turn a reward in the form of profit since the task of risk taking is infuriating.
Profit is an excess of payment above the actuarial value of risk. No entrepreneur will be
willing to undertake risks if he gets only the normal return. Hence the reward for risk taking
must be higher than the actual value of risk.
Prof. Frank H knight regards profit as the reward of bearing non insurable risks and
uncertainties. He distinguishes amidst insurable and non-insurable risks. Certain risks are
measurable in as much as the probability of their occurrence can be statistically calculated.
The risk of fire theft of merchandise and of death by accident is insurable. Such risks are
borne by the insurance company. There are certain unique risks which are incalculable. The
probability of their occurrence cannot be statistically computed for the reason that of the
presence of uncertainty in them.
Such unforeseen risks relate to changes in prices, demand and supply etc. No
insurance company can calculate the loss expected from such risks and hence they are non-
insurable. Profit according to Knight is the reward of bearing non-insurable risks and
uncertainties. It is a deviation arising from uncertainty between earning ex post and ex ante.
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Prof. GLS Shackle has extended Knights theory of profit by introducing expectations
under conditions of uncertainty. According to him, expectations are of two types: general and
particular. General expectations relate to variables general to the economy as a whole. They
are associated with such micro variables as the future reaction of a particular marketing
strategy adopted by a firm, the future pricing policy of a competitive firm etc.
The decisions of the business community are generally based on general expectations.
If it regards them favorable investments are made. But there is subjective certainty in the case
of general expectations. Their time horizon is about 12 months. As the general expectations
have subjective certainty and their time horizon is also of reasonable duration, the business
community is able to anticipate price and income increases correctly for the economy as a
whole and by adopting appropriate inventory policies it earns windfall profit.
The rent theory was developed by an American economist Francis L Walker. Walker
maintains that profit is the rent of ability. Like different grades of land, entrepreneurs are also
of different abilities. Entrepreneurs of superior ability earn profit just as superior lands earn
rent. According to Walker just as there is the marginal or no rent land, similarly there exists a
marginal or no profit entrepreneur who earns only wages only wages of management. The
marginal or no profit entrepreneur is the least efficient one earning profit not beyond an
amount just sufficient to keep him in his present industry.
The industry managed by the marginal entrepreneur is similar to the marginal land. Just as
land at the margin is no rent land, similarly the marginal entrepreneur earns no profit.
INTRODUCTION:
It is a classical theory of consumer behavior, law of substitution in consumption or
maximum satisfaction.
The law of equi-marginal utility states that A rational person in order to get
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A hypothetical person has to spend Rs. 7. He is going to buy two commodities A & B. the
price of each commodity is Rs. 1 unit. Our hypothetical consumer is a rational person.
SCHEDULE:
Rs. MU of commodity A MU of commodity B
1 40 35
2 35 30
3 30 25
4 25 20
5 20 15
6 15 10
7 10 05
SUM 175 140
It is clear from the above scheduling that when our hypothetical consumer spends Rs.
4 on commodity A and Rs. 3 on commodity B. The marginal utilities are equal at that
point. The total utility is 220, which is maximum in any other case.
If he changes his plan i.e. spends more on commodity B and less on commodity A.
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The marginal utilities would not be equal and he would not gain maximum satisfaction. The
total utility would also be less in any case other than when the marginal utilities are equal
and satisfaction is maximum.
ASSUMPTIONS:
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which give the consumer same satisfaction. Let us understand this with the help of following
indifference schedule, which shows all the combinations giving equal satisfaction to the
consumer.
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Explanation:
Suppose there is a farmer who cultivates a small farm. He applies some capital and labour to
his farm in certain fixed quantities, which we call doses.
Suppose each dose of capital and labour costs him Rs. 500 and the return to each dose is
as follows:
It appears that as more doses are applied, the marginal return (i.e., the additional
return) goes on decreasing. The second dose adds 10 quintals, the third 8 quintals, the fourth
5, and so on (see column 3). The total return no doubt goes on increasing (column 2) but it
should be carefully noted that it does not increase proportionately.
For example, when the first dose of Rs. 500 is applied, the yield is 12 quintals and
when two doses are applied, the total return is 22 quintals and not 24. It does not become
double, because the yield of the second dose is not equal to that of the first. The increase is
less than proportionate. We can say that the total return increases but at a diminishing rate.
We may also notice that even the total return begins decreasing at a certain stage. The
stage of diminishing returns in the case of total return, however, comes much later, and if the
farmer is prudent, it may never come. The 6th dose makes no addition to the total, and the 7th
even decreases it. It seems that at this stage too many men or too much manure has been
applied so that, instead of doing any good, they have done harm.
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Diagrammatic Representation:
The above illustration can be represented diagrammatically as follows:
In Fig. 22.1, along OX are represented doses applied, and along OY the marginal returns
corresponding to each dose. As more and more doses are applied, the marginal return falls.
Hence the curve slopes downwards from left to right. At the 5th dose, the marginal return is
stationary, at the 6th it is zero, and at the 7th it is negative.
The law of diminishing returns can also be called the law of increasing cost. When
increased investment of labour and capital results in less and less production, it means that
the cost of production per unit goes up as industry is expanded. This is the law of increasing
cost.
Meaning of Utility:
Utility refers to want satisfying power of a commodity. It is the satisfaction, actual or
expected, derived from the consumption of a commodity. Utility differs from person- to-
person, place-to-place and time-to-time. In the words of Prof. Hobson, Utility is the ability
of a good to satisfy a want.
In short, when a commodity is capable of satisfying human wants, we can conclude that the
commodity has utility.
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weight or height is measured. For this, economists assumed that utility can be measured in
cardinal (numerical) terms. By using cardinal measure of utility, it is possible to numerically
estimate utility, which a person derives from consumption of goods and services. But, there
was no standard unit for measuring utility. So, the economists derived an imaginary measure,
known as Util.
Utils are imaginary and psychological units which are used to measure satisfaction (utility)
obtained from consumption of a certain quantity of a commodity.
However, if you liked it more, you would give it a number greater than 20. Suppose, you
assign 10 utils to the chocolate, then it can be concluded that you liked the ice-cream twice as
much as you liked the chocolate.
SECTION C
Explanation:
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Suppose there is a farmer who cultivates a small farm. He applies some capital and labour to
his farm in certain fixed quantities, which we call doses.
Suppose each dose of capital and labour costs him Rs. 500 and the return to each dose is
as follows:
It appears that as more doses are applied, the marginal return (i.e., the additional
return) goes on decreasing. The second dose adds 10 quintals, the third 8 quintals, the fourth
5, and so on (see column 3). The total return no doubt goes on increasing (column 2) but it
should be carefully noted that it does not increase proportionately.
For example, when the first dose of Rs. 500 is applied, the yield is 12 quintals and
when two doses are applied, the total return is 22 quintals and not 24. It does not become
double, because the yield of the second dose is not equal to that of the first. The increase is
less than proportionate. We can say that the total return increases but at a diminishing rate.
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We may also notice that even the total return begins decreasing at a certain stage. The
stage of diminishing returns in the case of total return, however, comes much later, and if the
farmer is prudent, it may never come. The 6th dose makes no addition to the total, and the 7th
even decreases it. It seems that at this stage too many men or too much manure has been
applied so that, instead of doing any good, they have done harm.
Diagrammatic Representation:
The above illustration can be represented diagrammatically as follows:
In Fig. 22.1, along OX are represented doses applied, and along OY the marginal
returns corresponding to each dose. As more and more doses are applied, the marginal return
falls. Hence the curve slopes downwards from left to right. At the 5th dose, the marginal
return is stationary, at the 6th it is zero, and at the 7th it is negative.
The law of diminishing returns can also be called the law of increasing cost. When increased
investment of labour and capital results in less and less production, it means that the cost of
production per unit goes up as industry is expanded. This is the law of increasing cost
Limitations:
6. The law is not applicable in case of knowledge. Reading of books provides more
satisfaction and knowledge to the scholar. Different books provide variety of
knowledge and satisfaction.
7. The law is not applicable in case of indivisible goods. The consumer is unable to
divide the goods to adjust units of utility derived from consumption of goods.
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Its Assumptions:
The indifference curve analysis of consumers equilibrium is based on the following
assumptions:
The consumers indifference map for the two goods X and Y is based on his scale of
preferences for them which does not change at all in this analysis.
His money income is given and constant. It is Rs. 10 which he spends on the two
goods in question.
Prices of the two goods X and Y are also given and constant. X is priced at Rs. 2 per
unit and Y at Rs. 1 per unit.
There is no change in the tastes and habits of the consumer throughout the analysis
There is perfect competition in the market from where he makes his purchases of the
two goods.
The consumer is rational and thus maximizes his satisfaction from the purchase of the
two good
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Graphically, the indifference curve is drawn as a downward sloping convex to the origin. The
graph shows a combination of two goods that the consumer consumes.
LIMITATIONS:
Robertson blamed this analysis by pointing out it as an old wine in a new bottle. Many other
economists such as F.H. Knight, Armstrong, Boulding criticised the analysis in several ways.
Some of the limitations of this analysis are:
(i) The indifference curve analysis is utility analysis in a new grab. It has simply substituted
new concepts and equations instead of the old ones.
(ii) Indifference curve analysis assumes that consumers are familiar with their preference
schedules. But, it is not possible for a consumer to have a complete knowledge of all the
combinations of the two commodities, total satisfactions from them, rates of substitutions and
total incomes.
(iii) This analysis is confined to the case of only two commodities. For covering a large
number of commodities, one commodity, say, Y has to be taken as a composite commodity
(represented by money) such that prices of all the commodities comprising the composite
commodities increase or decrease simultaneously and by the same proportion.
.(iv) This analysis assumes rationality of the consumer. In many situations, however,
consumer behaves in an irrational and thoughtless manner.
(v) Indifference curve analysis is introspective, as it studies consumer behaviour on the basis
of imaginary drawn indifference curves. Further, it is based on weak ordering hypothesis.
Thus, consumer is indifferent towards some combinations.
(vi) This analysis assumes perfect divisibility of the commodities. But, consumer is often
faced by lumpy units. So, the continuity of indifference curves is not ensured as assumed by
indifference curves analysis, as also large number of very closed placed indifference curves.
(vii) Indifference curve analysis is micro economic in character. It is not possible to draw
indifference curves indicating the choices of a group or a country as a whole. In this respect,
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utility analysis has an edge over, as it goes by a general opinion based on past experience and
observation.
(viii) Indifference curve analysis is not amenable to statistical investigation and empirical
research, as the entire analysis is based upon theoretically formulated cross-effect
relationships and not upon statistical observations. In view of Samuelsson, indifference
curves are imaginary.
(ix) Indifference curve analysis fails to explain consumer behaviour under risk and
uncertainty.
An indifference curve is a graph showing combination of two goods that give the consumer
equal satisfaction and utility. Each point on an indifference curve indicates that a consumer
is indifferent between the two and all points give him the same utility
Its Assumptions:
The indifference curve analysis of consumers equilibrium is based on the following
assumptions:
The consumers indifference map for the two goods X and Y is based on his scale of
preferences for them which does not change at all in this analysis.
His money income is given and constant. It is Rs. 10 which he spends on the two
goods in question.
Prices of the two goods X and Y are also given and constant. X is priced at Rs. 2 per
unit and Y at Rs. 1 per unit.
There is no change in the tastes and habits of the consumer throughout the analysis
There is perfect competition in the market from where he makes his purchases of the
two goods.
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The consumer is rational and thus maximizes his satisfaction from the purchase of the
two good
The above diagram shows the U indifference curve showing bundles of goods A and B. To
the consumer, bundle A and B are the same as both of them give him the equal satisfaction.
In other words, point A gives as much utility as point B to the individual. The consumer will
be satisfied at any point along the curve assuming that other things are constant.
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PART A (ANSWERS)
1. Define demand forecasting (Nov-14)
Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that
consumers will purchase. Demand forecasting may be used in making pricing decisions, in
assessing future capacity requirements, or in making decisions on whether to enter a new
market.
Demand forecasting and estimation gives businesses valuable information about the markets
in which they operate and the markets they plan to pursue
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SECTION B (answers)
Statistical Methods
Statistical methods use the past data as a guide for knowing the level of future demand.
Statistical methods are generally used for long run forecasting. These methods are used for
established products. Statistical methods include:
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Conditions within the industry: Every business enterprise is only a unit of a particular
industry. Sales of that business enterprise are only a part of the total sales of that industry.
Therefore, while preparing demand forecasts for a particular business enterprise, it becomes
necessary to study the changes in the demand of the whole industry, number of units within
the industry, design and quality of product, price policy, competition within the industry etc.
Conditions within the firm: Internal factors of the firm also affect the demand forecast.
These factors include plant capacity of the firm, quality of the the product, advertising and
distribution policies, production policies, financial policies etc.
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Factors affecting export trade: If a firm is engaged in export trade also it should consider
the factors affecting the export trade. These factors include import and export control, terms
and conditions of export, EXIM policy, export conditions, export finance etc.
Market behavior : While preparing demand forecast, it is required to consider the market
behavior which brings about changes in demand.
Psychological conditions: While estimating the demand for the product, it becomes
necessary to take into consideration such factors as changes in consumer tastes, habits,
fashions, likes and dislikes, attitudes, perception, life styles, cultural and religious bents etc.
There are several methods to predict the future demand. All methods can be broadly
classified into two. (A) Survey methods, (B) Statistical methods
(b)Collective opinion method: Under this method the salesmen estimate the expected sales
in their respective territories on the basis of previous experience. Then demand is estimated
after combining the individual forecasts (sales estimates) of the salesmen. This method is also
known as sales force opinion method.
(c)Experts' opinion method: This method was originally developed at Rand Corporation in
1950 by Olaf Helmer, Dalkey and Gordon. Under this method, demand is estimated on the
basis of opinions of experts and distributors other than salesmen and ordinary consumers.
This method is also known as Delphi method. Delphi is the ancient Greek temple where
people come and prey for information about their future.
(d)Consumer clinics: In this method some selected buyers are given certain amounts of
money and asked to buy the products. Then the prices are changed and the consumers are
asked to make fresh purchases with the given money. In this way the consumers" responses
to price changes are observed. Thus the behavior of the consumers is studied. On this basis
demand is estimated. This method is an improvement over consumers interview method.
Statistical Methods
Statistical methods use the past data as a guide for knowing the level of future demand.
Statistical methods are generally used for long run forecasting. These methods are used for
established products. Statistical methods include: (i) Trend projection method, (ii) Regression
and Correlation, (iii) Extrapolation method, (iv) Simultaneous equation method, and (v)
Barometric method.
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(b)Collective opinion method: Under this method the salesmen estimate the expected sales
in their respective territories on the basis of previous experience. Then demand is estimated
after combining the individual forecasts (sales estimates) of the salesmen. This method is also
known as sales force opinion method.
(c)Experts' opinion method: This method was originally developed at Rand Corporation in
1950 by Olaf Helmer, Dalkey and Gordon. Under this method, demand is estimated on the
basis of opinions of experts and distributors other than salesmen and ordinary consumers.
This method is also known as Delphi method. Delphi is the ancient Greek temple where
people come and prey for information about their future.
(d)Consumer clinics: In this method some selected buyers are given certain amounts of
money and asked to buy the products. Then the prices are changed and the consumers are
asked to make fresh purchases with the given money. In this way the consumers" responses
to price changes are observed. Thus the behavior of the consumers is studied. On this basis
demand is estimated. This method is an improvement over consumers interview method.
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Statistical Methods
Statistical methods use the past data as a guide for knowing the level of future demand.
Statistical methods are generally used for long run forecasting. These methods are used for
established products. Statistical methods include: (i) Trend projection method, (ii) Regression
and Correlation, (iii) Extrapolation method, (iv) Simultaneous equation method, and (v)
Barometric method.
Advantages
It is a simple method because it is not based on past record.
It suitable for industrial products.
The results are likely to be more accurate.
This method can be used for forecasting the demand of a new product.
It is based on the first hand knowledge of Salesmen.
This method is particularly useful for estimating demand of new products.
It utilizes the specialized knowledge of salesmen who are in close touch with the
prevailing market conditions.
Forecast can be made quickly and economically
This is a reliable method because estimates are made on the basis of knowledge and
experience of sales experts.
The firm need not spare its time on preparing estimates of demand.
This method is suitable for new products.
Disadvantages
It is expensive and time consuming.
Consumers may not give their secrets or buying plans.
This method is not suitable for long term forecasting.
It is not suitable when the number of consumer is large.
The forecasts may not be reliable if the salespeople are not trained.2. It is not suitable
for long period estimation.
It is not flexible.
Salesmen may give lower estimates that make possible easy achievement of sales
quotas fixed for each salesman.
This method is expensive.
This method sometimes lacks reliability
PART C Answers
1. Explain the various methods of demand forecasting in detail?(Apr/May-14)
There are several methods to predict the future demand. All methods can be broadly
classified into two. (A) Survey methods, (B) Statistical methods
(A) Survey methods
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Under this method surveys are conducted to collect information about the future purchase
plans of potential consumers. Survey methods help in obtaining information about the
desires, likes and dislikes of consumers through collecting the opinion of experts or by
interviewing the consumers. Survey methods are used for short term forecasting. Important
survey methods are (a) consumers interview method, (b) collective opinion or sales force
opinion methodic) experts opinion method, (d) consumers clinic and (f) end use method.
(a) Consumers' interview method (Consumers survey): Under this method, consumers are
interviewed directly and asked the quantity they would like to buy. After collecting the data,
the total demand for the product is calculated. This is done by adding up all individual
demands. Under the consumer interview method, either all consumers or selected few are
interviewed. When all the consumers are interviewed, the method is known as complete
enumeration method. When only a selected group of consumers are interviewed, it is known
as sample survey method
(b)Collective opinion method: Under this method the salesmen estimate the expected sales
in their respective territories on the basis of previous experience. Then demand is estimated
after combining the individual forecasts (sales estimates) of the salesmen. This method is
also known as sales force opinion method.
(c)Experts' opinion method: This method was originally developed at Rand Corporation in
1950 by Olaf Helmer, Dalkey and Gordon. Under this method, demand is estimated on the
basis of opinions of experts and distributors other than salesmen and ordinary consumers.
This method is also known as Delphi method. Delphi is the ancient Greek temple where
people come and prey for information about their future.
(d)Consumer clinics: In this method some selected buyers are given certain amounts of
money and asked to buy the products. Then the prices are changed and the consumers are
asked to make fresh purchases with the given money. In this way the consumers" responses
to price changes are observed. Thus the behavior of the consumers is studied. On this basis
demand is estimated. This method is an improvement over consumers interview method.
e) End use method: This method is based on the fact that a product generally has different
uses. In the end use method, first a list of end users (final consumers, individual industries,
exporters etc.) is prepared. Then the future demand for the product is found either directly
from the end users or indirectly by estimating their future growth. Then the demand of all
end users of the product is added to get the total demand for the product.
Statistical Methods
Statistical methods use the past data as a guide for knowing the level of future demand.
Statistical methods are generally used for long run forecasting. These methods are used for
established products. Statistical methods include: (i) Trend projection method, (ii) Regression
and Correlation, (iii) Extrapolation method, (iv) Simultaneous equation method, and (v)
Barometric method.
i)Trend projection method: Future sales are based on the past sales, because future is the
grand-child of the past and child of the present. Under the trend projection method demand is
estimated on the basis of analysis of past data. This method makes use of time series (data
over a period of time). We try to ascertain the trend in the time series. The trend in the time
series can be estimated by using any one of the following four methods: (a) Least-square
method, (b) Free- hand method, (c) Moving average method and (d)
semi-average method.
(ii) Regression and Correlation: These methods combine economic theory and statistical
technique of estimation. Under these methods the relationship between the sales (dependent
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variable) and other variables (independent variables such as price of related goods, income,
advertisement etc.) is ascertained. Such relationship established on the basis of past data may
be used to analyze the future trend. The regression and correlation analysis is also called the
econometric model building.
(iii) Extrapolation: Under this statistical method, the future demand can be extrapolated by
applying Binomial expansion method. This method is used on the assumption that the rate of
charge in demand in the past has been uniform.
(iv) Simultaneous equation method.-This involves the development of a complete
econometric model which can explain the behavior of all the variables which the company
can control. This method is not very popular.
(v) Barometric technique: This is an improvement over the trend projection method.
According to this technique the events of the present can be used to predict the directions of
change m the future. Here certain economic and statistical indicators from the selected time
series are used to predict variables. Personal income, non-agricultural placements, gross
national income, prices of industrial materials, wholesale commodity prices, industrial
production, bank deposits etc. are some of the most commonly used indicators.
1. Evolutionary approach: This method is based on the assumption that the new product
is the improvement and evolution of the old product. The demand is forecasted on the basis
of the demand of the old product. For example, the demand for black and white TV should
be taken in to consideration while forecasting the demand for color TV sets because the latter
is an improvement of the former.
2. Substitute approach: Here the new product is treated as a substitute of an existing
product, e.g. polythene bags for cloth bags. Thus the demand for a new product is analyzed as
a substitute for some existing goods or service.
3. Growth curve approach: Under this method the growth rate of demand of a new product
is estimated on the basis of the growth rate of demand of an existing product. Suppose Pears
soap is in use and a new cosmetic is to be introduced in the market. In this case the average
sale of Pears soap will give an idea as to how the new cosmetic will be accepted by the
consumers.
4. Opinion poll approach: Under this method the demand for a new product is estimated on
the basis of information collected from the direct interviews (survey) with consumers.
5. Sales Experience approach: Under this method, the new product is offered for sale in a
sample market, i.e. by direct mail or through multiple shop or departmental shop. From this
the total demand is estimated for the whole market.
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Revenue Goals
If your long-term revenue goal is to double revenue by the end of the current fiscal year,
another example of a supporting short-term goal is to contract an advertising consultant for
one month to help you analyze and capitalize on your customer's buying trends. Another
short-term goal example is to spend the next month learning your primary competition and
brainstorming on what you offer that they don't. Take this research and design a new
advertising campaign that highlights the unique points about your
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web consultant for one month to propose and implement programming changes to make the
site appeal to a broader audience than your traffic trend research suggests currently exist.
Another example of a short-term goal is to select a medium for advertising your site other
than the Web, such as a bus campaign where you advertise your site address on the side of
city buses for one month, or billboards, where you lease a billboard in a conspicuous place in
town for one month.
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The processes and methods used to transform tangible inputs (raw materials, semi-
finished goods, sub-assemblies) and intangible inputs (ideas, information, knowledge)
into goods or services. Resources are used in this process to create an output that is suitable
for use or has exchange value.
external factors are outside the control of a particular company, and encompass positive
externalities that reduce the firm's costs.
SECTION-B
1. What are the importances of law of diminishing returns? (Apr/May-13)
1. Theory of Population:
Malthusian theory of population is based on the law of diminishing returns.
According to Malthusian theory, production of food grains does not increase in the same
proportion in which population increases.
3. Basis of Innovation:
o Every producer wants to postpone the law.
o It is only possible when the new methods of production, new tools, raw materials
etc ar innovated.
o All these factors put a check on the operation of the law of diminishing returns.
6. Importance to Industry:
The manufacturing industry has a great significance of the law of diminishing returns
Every manufacturing industry has a higher per capita income as compared to
agricultural sector.
The reason is that this law operates at a very early stage in the agricultural sector and
the per capita income remains low.
(ii) Labour:
Human efforts done mentally or physically with the aim of earning income is
known as labour. Thus, labour is a physical or mental effort of human being in the process
of production. The compensation given to labourers in return for their productive work is
called wages (or compensation of employees).
(iii) Capital:
All man-made goods which are used for further production of wealth are included in
capital. Thus, it is man-made material source of production., all man-made aids to
production, which are not consumed/or their own sake, are termed as capital.It is the
produced means of production. An increase in the capital of an economy means an increase
in the productive capacity of the economy., capital is derived from land and labour and has
therefore, been named as Stored-Up labour.
(iv) Entrepreneur:
An entrepreneur is a person who organizes the other factors and undertakes the
risks and uncertainties involved in the production.
He hires the other three factors, brings them together, organizes and coordinates them so
as to earn maximum profit
The short run, at least one factor of production is fixed; this means that output can be
increased by adding more variable factors such as employing more workers and buying in
more raw materials
2. Secondly, there must be some inputs whose quantity is kept fixed. This is one of the
ways by which we can alter the factor proportions and know its effect on output. This law does
not apply in case all factors are proportionately varied. Behaviour of output as a result of the
variation in all inputs is discussed under returns to scale.
3. Thirdly the law is based upon the possibility of varying the proportions in which the
various factors can be combined to produce a product. The law does not apply to those cases
where the factors must be used in fixed proportions to yield a product.
When the various factors are required to be used in rigidly fixed proportions, then the
increase in one factor would not lead to any increase in output, that is, the marginal product of
the factor will then be zero and not diminishing. It may, however, be pointed out that products
requiring fixed proportions of factors are quiet uncommon. Thus, the law of variable proportion
applies to most of the cases of production in the real world.
The law of variable Assume that there is a given fixed amount of land, with which more units of
the variable factor labour, is used to produce agricultural output.
SECTION-C
1. What is mean by economies of scale and what are the types of economies of scale?
(Nov-14)
The cost advantage that arises with increased output of a product.
Economies of scale arise because of the inverse relationship between the quantity
produced and per-unit fixed costs;
i.e. the greater the quantity of a good produced, the lower the per-unit fixed cost because
these costs are shared over a larger number of goods.
Economies of scale may also reduce variable costs per unit because of operational
efficiencies and synergies.
Economies of scale can be classified into two main types: Internal arising from within
the company; and External arising from extraneous factors such as industry size.
The external factors are outside the control of a particular company, and
encompass positive externalities that reduce the firm's costs.
1. The concentration of similar firms in an area, may lead to an increase in demand for raw
material is used by the firms. This will cause the prices of raw materials to increase provided the
supply of the raw materials remains unchanged. This consequently would increases the cost of
production in the industry.
2. The localization of firms in an area results in urbanization problems such as traffic congestion.
This slows down the movement of labor, goods and raw materials and thereby retarding the rate
at which goods and services are produced. This increases the cost of production in the industry.
3. As the industry grows, demand for skilled labor mainly needed in the industry increases. Wage
rates will tend to increase as firms begin to compete for the services of the skilled workers.
4. Problems of waste disposal may arise. Firms may be compelled to employed costly waste
disposal methods in order to keep the area clean.
5. Competitive advertisement would have to be resorted to and more money will have to be spent
on that if each firm is to maintain its position.
6. Structural unemployment may be created as the size of the industry grows. This may be due to
changes in taste and preference. This may create declining industry.
2. Explain the law of variable proportion with suitable diagram? (Nov/Dec-11) (Apr/May-
14)
This law examines the production function with one factor variable, keeping the
quantities of other factors fixed.
In other words, it refers to the input-output relation when output is increased by varying
the quantity of one input.
When the quantity of one factor is varied, keeping the quantity of other factors constant,
the proportion between the variable factor and the fixed factor is altered
The ratio of employment of the variable factor to that of the fixed factor goes on
increasing as the quantity of the variable factor is increased.
Since under this law we study the effects on output of variation in factor proportions, this is also
known as the law of variable proportions. Thus law of variable proportions is the new name for
the famous Law of Diminishing Returns of classical economics. This law has played a vital
role in the history of economic thought and occupies an equally important place in modern
economic theory. This law has been supported by the empirical evidence about the real world.
The law of variable proportions or diminishing returns has been stated by various
economists in the following manner:
As equal increments of one input are added; the inputs of other productive services being
held constant, beyond a certain point the resulting increments of product will decrease, i.e., the
marginal products will diminish, (G. Stigler)
An increase in some inputs relative to other fixed inputs will, in a given state of
technology, cause output to increase; but after a point the extra output resulting from the same
addition of extra inputs will become less. (Paul A. Samuelson)
It is obvious from the above definitions of the law of variable proportions (or the law of
diminishing returns) that it refers to the behaviour of output as the quantity of one factor is
increased, keeping the quantity of other factors fixed and further it states that the marginal
product and average product will eventually decline.
2. Secondly, there must be some inputs whose quantity is kept fixed. This is one of the
ways by which we can alter the factor proportions and know its effect on output. This law does
not apply in case all factors are proportionately varied. Behaviour of output as a result of the
variation in all inputs is discussed under returns to scale.
3. Thirdly the law is based upon the possibility of varying the proportions in which the
various factors can be combined to produce a product. The law does not apply to those cases
where the factors must be used in fixed proportions to yield a product.
When the various factors are required to be used in rigidly fixed proportions, then the
increase in one factor would not lead to any increase in output, that is, the marginal product of
the factor will then be zero and not diminishing. It may, however, be pointed out that products
requiring fixed proportions of factors are quiet uncommon. Thus, the law of variable proportion
applies to most of the cases of production in the real world.
The law of variable Assume that there is a given fixed amount of land, with which more
units of the variable factor labour, is used to produce agricultural output.
With a given fixed quantity of land, as a farmer raises employment of labour from one unit to 7
units, the total product increases from 80 quintals to 504 quintals of wheat. Beyond the
employment of 8 units of labour, total product diminishes. It is worth noting that up to the use of
3 units of labour, total product increases at an increasing rate.
This fact is clearly revealed from column 3 which shows successive marginal products of labour
as extra units of labour are used. Marginal product of labour, it may be recalled, is the increment
in total output due to the use of an extra unit of labour.
Beyond the use of eight units of labour, total product diminishes and therefore marginal product
of labour becomes negative. As regards average product of labour, it raises upto the use of fourth
unit of labour and beyond that it is falling throughout.
In this figure, on the X-axis the quantity of the variable factor is measured and on the F-
axis the total product, average product and marginal product are measured. How the total
product, average product and marginal product a variable factor change as a result of the increase
in its quantity, that is, by increasing the quantity of one factor to a fixed quantity of the others
will be seen from Fig. 16.3.
The behavior of these total, average and marginal products of the variable factor as a
result of the increase in its amount is generally divided into three stages which are
explained below:
Stage 1:
In this stage, total product curve TP increases at an increasing rate up to a point from the
origin to the point F, slope of the total product curve TP is increasing, that is, up to the point F,
the total product increases at an increasing rate (the total product curve TP is concave upward
upto the point F), which means that the marginal product MP of the variable factor is rising.
From the point F onwards during the stage 1, the total product curve goes on rising but its slope
is declining which means that from point F onwards the total product increases at a diminishing
rate (total product curve TP is concave down-ward), i.e., marginal product falls but is positive.
The point F where the total product stops increasing at an increasing rate and starts increasing at
the diminishing rate is called the point of inflection. Vertically corresponding to this point of
inflection marginal product is maximum, after which it starts diminishing.
Thus, marginal product of the variable factor starts diminishing beyond OL amount of the
variable factor. That is, law of diminishing returns starts operating in stage 1 from point D on the
MP curve or from OL amount of the variable factor used.
Whereas marginal product curve of a variable factor rises in a part and then falls, the
average product curve rises throughout. In the first stage, the quantity of the fixed factor is too
much relative to the quantity of the variable factor so that if some of the fixed factor is
withdrawn, the total product will increase. Thus, in the first stage marginal product of the fixed
factor is negative.
Stage 2:
The total product continues to increase at a diminishing rate until it reaches its maximum point H
where the second stage ends. In this stage both the marginal product and the average product of
the variable factor are diminishing but remain positive.
At the end of the second stage, that is, at point M marginal product of the variable factor is zero
(corresponding to the highest point H of the total product curve TP). Stage 2 is very crucial and
important because as will be explained below the firm will seek to produce in its range.
factor is too much relative to the fixed factor. This stage is called the stage of negative returns,
since the marginal product of the variable factor is negative during this stage.