North Korea may be preparing

its 6th nuclear test

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This undated picture released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency on March 7, 2017 shows the launch of four

ballistic missiles by the Korean People's Army during a military drill at an undisclosed location in North Korea. PHOTO: AFP

PUBLISHED:
APR 13, 2017, 7:00 PM SGT

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New satellite images suggest that North Korea might soon conduct another underground detonation in its effort to learn
how to make nuclear arms - its sixth explosive test in a decade and perhaps its most powerful yet.

North Korea's nuclear tests have grown steadily more destructive, and the country continues to pursue its longtime goal of
putting a nuclear warhead on an intercontinental missile capable of reaching targets around the globe.

The United States recently ordered an aircraft carrier and other warships toward the Korean Peninsula in a show of force
intended to discourage the North from testing a nuclear weapon.

While examining satellite imagery, experts have observed a wide range of activity at Mount Mantap, a mile-high peak
where North Korea conducts its nuclear tests. Beneath the mountain, a system of tunnels has been dug for the past five
detonations of the North's nuclear bombs.

North Korea often marks significant dates with shows of military force, and analysts say it might detonate a nuclear
weapon to celebrate the birthday this Saturday (April 15) of the nation's founder, Kim Il Sung, the grandfather of the
current leader, Kim Jong Un.

BIG DEBRIS PILE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A MUCH LARGER DETONATION.

Since late 2013, a pile of rocky debris from the excavation of the site's northern tunnel system has grown big enough to
cover a football field. It's the largest pile ever observed there. Work on the excavation has recently slowed, quite likely
signaling readiness for the next detonation.
So too, observers of the test site have recently noted a lot of water being pumped out of the tunnel system - presumably to
prevent washouts and keep it dry for test instrumentation. Groundwater is often a problem in tunneling as it can slow
progress, weaken structures and cause shorts in electrical gear.

Scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory who have studied images of the debris recently concluded that Mount
Mantap could withstand a nuclear explosion of as many as 282 kilotons - roughly 20 times stronger than the Hiroshima
blast. Previously, the largest detonations were in the Hiroshima range.

No one outside of North Korea knows for sure what could take place or how big the blast might be. It's a guessing game -
although a sophisticated one for Washington's intelligence agencies, and less so for civilians armed only with unclassified
information. Either way, it's a detective story full of clues, questions and a protagonist with a clear motive.

Experts in satellite imagery, military analysts, and geologists and physicists track progress at the remote site mainly
through the observation of tunneling, construction of buildings, truck movements and, although harder to see, personnel
moves.

SEISMIC ACTIVITY HELPS PINPOINT NORTH KOREA'S DETONATIONS.

Mount Mantap is the world's only active nuclear test site. Most other nuclear states long ago gave up such explosions in a
coordinated effort to end arms races and their dangerous and costly spirals of military action and reaction.

In North Korea, the test devices are buried deep inside tunnels bored through solid rock far below Mount Mantap's peaks,
creating field labs for nuclear experiments. The nearest major city, Chongjin, is about 50 miles to the northeast.

The tunnels for the North's tests are excavated just over halfway up Mount Mantap, which rises to 7,234 feet. The bomb is
placed at the end of the tunnel, which is partly backfilled to prevent radioactive leakage, and then detonated in the test.
To pinpoint the geographic site of the nuclear blasts, experts rely on the kind of seismologic data used to track
earthquakes. Similarly, each of the North's detonations has generated shock waves that registered around the globe.

Experts say the North's tunnel system will quite likely play a significant role in future testing because it is the busiest area
at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, has a conspicuous perimeter fence and has the largest amount of protective rock
directly overhead.
Several independent teams, including ones from China, South Korea, Norway and the United States, have gathered
seismic readings from the North's bomb tests. In addition, a world body known as the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
Organisation, based in Vienna, operates a sprawling network of global sensors.

Last year, a team of South Korean scientists confirmed a test's exact location within Mount Mantap by studying data from
a radar satellite that detected subtle elevation changes on the mountain's surface.

SO FAR, NORTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR TESTS HAVE GROWN MORE DESTRUCTIVE.

The North has shown technical savvy in pacing its nuclear tests to increase the amount of time for bomb-makers to
conduct detailed analyses of the blasts and learn from mistakes.

"They've done five tests in 10 years," said Siegfried S Hecker, a Stanford professor who once directed the Los Alamos
laboratory in New Mexico, the birthplace of the atomic bomb. "You can learn a lot in that time." In contrast, he said, India
and Pakistan conducted a rush of nuclear detonations in May 1998 in what experts called a blitz of saber rattling.
"They couldn't have learned much," Hecker said.

North Korea may be focused on increasing the power and range of its nuclear weapons.

North Korea's past tests are thought to have centered on mastering a simple type of atomic bomb, known as an implosion
device.

Some of the tests may have featured "boosted" atomic bombs, however - meaning that an injection of tritium, a
radioactive form of hydrogen, could have increased their destructive power. All such fuels, known as thermonuclear, need
the high temperature from an exploding atomic bomb for ignition.

"It's possible that North Korea has already boosted," said Gregory S Jones, a scientist at the RAND Corp who analyses
nuclear issues. Like other experts, he pointed to the nation's two nuclear detonations last year as possible tests of small
boosted arms.

As signs of the North's interest in boosting, experts cite modifications to a reactor that could make tritium, as well as
construction of a plant that could gather the radioactive gas. Boosted arms can raise the destructive power of atomic blasts
or greatly reduce their need for atomic fuel.

That savings can significantly lighten and shrink the resulting arms, making them easier to hurl over long distances.
Boosting is considered a main step to scaling down warheads so they can fit atop intercontinental missiles.

Nine countries possess nuclear arms, most having advanced over time from making simple atomic bombs to advanced
hydrogen weapons. Nuclear experts say North Korea's programme is at an intermediate phase of development. The secret
to achieving more destructive power is to raise the amount of thermonuclear fuel that an exploding atomic bomb can
ignite.
Experts say the likelihood of North Korea making strides in its nuclear programme has risen with the recent evidence that
the nation tried to sell excess lithium-6, which is the main ingredient for making thermonuclear fuels, including tritium.

So too, satellite images of the mountainous test site reveal the digging of the deep tunnel system, which could allow the
detonation of a larger device.

A gathering at the remote site is considered a strong sign.

On March 28, a satellite image showed people gathered in front of an administrative building at the test site. The last time
such a large group was observed was Jan 4, 2013, a little more than a month before North Korea's third nuclear
detonation.

Experts see the recent gathering as yet another sign that the North may be getting closer to detonating a device.

"The fact these formations can be seen suggests that Pyongyang is sending a political message that the sixth nuclear test
will be conducted soon," wrote Joseph S Bermudez Jr, and Jack Liu, experts at 38 North, an analysis group that closely
tracks North Korea.

"Alternatively, it may be engaged in a well-planned game of brinkmanship."

NYTIMES
 Kim inspects 'nuclear warhead': A picture decoded
7 hours ago

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Just hours before the sixth nuclear test North Korea is suspected to have conducted, the state news agency released
photographs of Kim Jong-un inspecting a nuclear warhead. Defence expert Melissa Hanham decodes what information the picture
could yield.

This appears to be the biggest and most successful nuclear test by North Korea to date. Initial estimates by the USGS that it reached magnitude
6.3, which would make it an order of magnitude greater than we have ever seen before.

It is probably no coincidence that on the same day KCNA released photographs of Kim Jong-un inspecting a so-called H-bomb, or a thermonuclear
warhead, just hours before.
There is no way of telling if this is the actual device that was exploded in the tunnel - it could even be a model - but the messaging is clear.
They want to demonstrate that the know what makes a credible nuclear warhead.
Kim Jong-un is standing very close to the apparent warhead, dangerously close many might reasonably posit. However, it could very well
be that this is simply a model of the nuclear warhead. Nevertheless it is an extraordinary bit of messaging. In March 2016 he stood very close to a
missile set to be launched. He has even been photographed smoking cigarettes next to the solid fuel motors of missiles, so he is not averse to
showing extraordinary risk.
Image copyrightAFP
Even if it is a model, there are enough signals in this model to make it look very credible and that is to do with its shape, size and how
much detail they have showed.
 How advanced is North Korea's nuclear programme?
Have North Korea's missile tests paid off?
What can the outside world do?
Can the US defend itself against North Korea?
Typically when we've seen pictures of warheads from the US and Russia in the past they've just been cones. Here the North Koreans
have shown us quite significant detail.

The bulbous peanut shaped object is an order of detail that we haven't seen before. This is the warhead itself.
Image copyrightAFP
The larger side, closer to the silver cylinder with the wires protruding is probably the fission device. When that explodes it will then detonate the
smaller end of the object - which is the fusion part of the explosion.

The cylinder at the back is the firing set: this is the power, the electronics that will start off the explosion.
They are showing off the nuclear warhead alongside a missile. In some of the photographs we see a tall tan-coloured cone with a yellow
and black painted tip. That is the Hwasong-14 ICBM nose cone. This nose cone would be what is appended to the Hwasong-14 intercontinental
ballistic missile, that was tested in July, and signalled that North Korea may just have made a significant leap in weapons development.
There is even a chart in the background detailing how it will work. In Korean, the chart seems to detail that this device is intended to fit
into the cone.

The North Koreans are also showing us more detail than is required because this is a propaganda piece for outside consumption.
North Korea 'has missile-ready nuclear weapon'

Image
copyrightREUTERS/KCNAImage captionState media said Kim Jong-un "watched an H-bomb to be loaded into a new ICBM"

North Korea says it has developed a more advanced nuclear weapon that can be loaded on to a ballistic missile.

The state news agency released pictures of leader Kim Jong-un inspecting what it said was a new hydrogen bomb.
There has been no independent verification of the claims.

International experts say the North has made advances in its nuclear weapons capabilities but it is unclear if it has successfully miniaturised a
nuclear weapon it can load on to a missile.

Pyongyang has defied UN sanctions and international pressure to develop nuclear weapons and to test missiles which could potentially reach the
mainland US.

State news agency KCNA said Kim Jong-un had visited scientists at the nuclear weapons institute and "guided the work for nuclear
weaponisation".
How advanced is North Korea's nuclear programme?
Have North Korea's missile tests paid off?
What can the outside world do?
Can the US defend itself against North Korea?

"The institute recently succeeded in making a more developed nuke," the report said, adding: "He (Kim Jong-un) watched an H-bomb to be loaded
into a new ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile)."

The report carried pictures of the leader inspecting the device. It described the weapon as "a multi-functional thermonuclear nuke with great
destructive power which can be detonated even at high altitudes".

Defence expert Melissa Hanham, of the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in California, said that the North's claims could not be
verified from the photographs alone.
"We don't know if this thing is full of styrofoam, but yes, it is shaped like it has two devices," she said on Twitter. Hydrogen bombs detonate in
two stages.

She added: "The bottom line is that they probably are going to do a thermonuclear test in the future, we won't know if it's this object though."
Image copyrightKCNAImage captionNorth Korea's missile launches have caused growing international alarm

North Korea has carried out a series of missile tests in recent months, including weapons that put the mainland US in range.
 Last week it fired a missile over Japan in a move Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called an "unprecedented" threat to his country.

Mr Abe and US President Donald Trump spoke by phone after the latest report emerged. The pair agreed more pressure needed to be put on North
Korea, Mr Abe said.
The North has previously claimed to have miniaturised a nuclear weapon but experts have cast doubt on this. There is also scepticism
about the North's claims to have developed a hydrogen bomb, which is more powerful than an atomic bomb.

Hydrogen bombs use fusion - the merging of atoms - to unleash huge amounts of energy, whereas atomic bombs use nuclear fission, or the
splitting of atoms.

North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests. Its most recent, and most powerful, came in September last year.

Correspondents say that although North Korea could conduct its sixth test at any time, there has been no recent activity at its Punggye-ri test site.

North Korea's missile programme:

North Korea has been working on its missile programme for decades, with weapons based on the Soviet-developed Scud

It has conducted short- and medium-range tests on many occasions, sometimes to mark domestic events or at times of regional tension

In recent months the pace of testing has increased; experts say North Korea appears to be making significant advances towards its goal of
building a reliable long-range nuclear-capable weapon

In July, North Korea launched two missiles which it said were Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) capable of hitting the US; experts
believe they put parts of the US in range

There is no consensus on how close North Korea is to miniaturising a nuclear warhead to put on a missile
North Korea decries US carrier dispatch as parliament
meets
ASSOCIATED PRESS
April 13, 2017 Updated: April 14, 2017 10:36pm

Photo: ED JONES, Staff / AFP/Getty Images

A man stands before flags as North Korea's leader Kim Jong-Un arrives for the opening ceremony for the Ryomyong Street housing
development in Pyongyang on April 13, 2017. Completion of the sprawling Ryomyong Street development, just down a wide avenue from the
mausoleum where Kim Jong-Un's grandfather Kim Il-Sung and father Kim Jong-Il lie in state, was repeatedly promised in time for the 105th
anniversary of the birth of the North's founder. / AFP PHOTO / Ed JONESED JONES/AFP/Getty Images

PYONGYANG, North Korea North Korea's parliament convened Tuesday amid heightened tensions on the divided
peninsula, with the United States and South Korea conducting their biggest-ever military exercises and the USS Carl Vinson
aircraft carrier heading to the area in a show of American strength.

North Korea vowed a tough response to any military moves that might follow the U.S. decision to send the carrier and its battle
group to waters off the Korean Peninsula.

"We will hold the U.S. wholly accountable for the catastrophic consequences to be entailed by its outrageous actions," a
spokesman for its Foreign Ministry was quoted as saying by the state-run Korean Central News Agency.

The statement followed an assertion by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson that U.S. missile strikes against a Syrian air base
in retaliation for a chemical weapons attack carry a message for any nation operating outside of international norms. He didn't
specify North Korea, but the context was clear enough.

"If you violate international agreements, if you fail to live up to commitments, if you become a threat to others, at some point a
response is likely to be undertaken," Tillerson told ABC's "This Week."

Pyongyang is always extremely sensitive to the annual U.S.-South Korea war games, which it sees as an invasion rehearsal, and
justifies its nuclear weapons as defensive in nature. It has significantly turned up the volume of its rhetoric that war could be
on the horizon if it sees any signs of aggression from south of the Demilitarized Zone.

"This goes to prove that the U.S. reckless moves for invading the DPRK have reached a serious phase of its scenario," the
North's statement said, referring to the country by its formal name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
In Washington, White House spokesman Sean Spicer said President Donald Trump has been very clear that it's "not tolerable"
for North Korea to have nuclear-armed missiles.
North Korea Carries Out Sixth Nuclear Test of Claimed Two-Stage Thermonuclear Bomb
North Korea claims to have tested a two-stage thermonuclear device ready for use in an ICBM.
By Ankit Panda
September 03, 2017

On Sunday, September 3, North Korea detonated an underground nuclear device near its nuclear testing site at Punggye-ri in North Hamgyong
Province, marking its sixth nuclear test. The device was detonated at exactly noon local time in North Korea (3:30 UTC) and generated
considerable seismic activity.

The United States Geological Service (USGS) recorded a 6.3 magnitude event as a result of the detonation. The China Earthquake
Administration (CEA) recorded the same while Japan Meteorological Agency recorded a 6.1 magnitude event. All measurements so far put the
detonated devices explosive yield considerably higher than North Koreas fifth nuclear test last September.

Hours after the test, North Koreas Korean Central State Television (KCTV) broadcast a statement claiming that the device tested was a two-
stage, thermonuclear bomb designed for use with North Koreas Hwasong-14intercontinental-range ballistic missile, which was first tested
earlier this summer, on July 4.

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The claim and test followed a release in North Korean state media of images showing Kim Jong-un inspecting a never-before-seen compact
nuclear device that resembled a two-stage Teller-Ulam design thermonuclear bomb, with two slight protrusions suggesting a primary fission
stage and secondary fusion stage. The design of the device was markedly different from a design that North Korea first revealed in February
2016.

North Korea claimed that its fourth and fifth nuclear tests in 2016 also involved a thermonuclear device or hydrogen bomb but most
experts doubted that it had tested a fully staged device. Instead, North Koreas 2016 devices were widely thought to be a boosted fission device.
Independent analysis of North Koreas nuclear weapons program has noted the production of materials, including Lithium-6, which could be
used in a thermonuclear bomb.
North Koreas claim would suggest that it tested the specific device seen in the images released on September 3. Verification of the kind of
device North Korea tested specifically, whether it was a fully staged thermonuclear bomb would require the collection of radionuclides
released by the detonation into the atmosphere. That would require the underground nuclear test to have vented; North Korea has been
remarkably successful at restricting venting for its tests to date.

Eight minutes after the detonation on Sunday, however, both USGS and CEA reported a secondary seismic event that was reported to be a cavity
collapse at the test site. USGS reported a magnitude of a 4.1 for that event while CEA ran an earlier report that was then retracted suggesting a
4.6 magnitude event.

A collapse at the site following what may have been a considerably larger bomb may not have been unexpected, but, depending on the geology of
the site, the incident could have allowed for unintended venting at the test site. (A collapse may be verifiable by independent analysts via
satellite imagery.) Given North Koreas success with venting prevention during previous tests, however, even a partial collapse may not allow for
sufficient atmospheric release of the kinds of signatures that would be necessary to verify Pyongyangs claims about its weapon design.

In the coming days, nuclear weapons experts will be poring over data to assess the sort of yield North Koreamay have demonstrated. Early
analyses from multiple experts and the South Korean government suggest that North Korea has comfortably demonstrated an explosive yield in
the range of at least 100 kilotons with this test. That would be a considerable improvement from the 30 kiloton yield estimated in its fifth test
and ideal for targeting U.S. citiesa primary objective in North Koreas pursuit of an ICBM.

Sundays test comes after North Korea carried out its most provocative ballistic missile test to date; it flew a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range
ballistic missile (IRBM) over Japanese territory into the northern PacificOcean, in a first, last week. The launch led to a massive show of force by
the United States, South Korea, and Japan, with fighters and bombers deployed in the region. Its unclear how these states or the international
community at large will respond to North Koreas latest test.

The United Nations Security Council recently adopted a new round of sanctions against the country with Resolution 2371, but North
Korea markedly underlined that its new two-stage nuclear weapon was an entirely indigenous design hinting that sanctions alone will be
insufficient in halting its nuclear ambitions.
Everything You Want to Know About North Korean
Nukes (But Were Afraid to Ask)
How scared should you be?
The regime in North Korea keeps launching missiles or trying to and threatening its neighbors with nuclear holocaust. On
Tuesday, reports emerged that North Korea has successfully developed a miniaturized nuclear weapon it can fit atop one of its
rockets.
 The Trump administration has threatened to respond to any further tests with "fire and fury" to which North Korea responded,
through state media, by floating the possibility of a pre-emptive strike on Guam. But amid these heated exchanges and military
posturing, there is a technical discussion that is often overlooked.

For some clarity, we turned to John Schilling, an aerospace engineer specializing in rocket propulsion. As a key contributor to the
North Korea-monitoring website 38 North, Schilling is among the best versed in missile technologies outside of the Pentagon.

How would fielding an ICBM change the geopolitical calculus when nations deal with North Korea?

North Korean Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile during launch, June 2016. Via KCNA.

The short answer is, North Korea wants nuclear-tipped ICBMs to directly deter the United States from attacking North Korea, or
otherwise imposing a Gaddafi-esque regime change. Most every credible war plan against North Korea, offensive or defensive,
 hinges on the alliance of the United States, South Korea, and Japan (even if the Japanese don't contribute combat forces, their ports
and airbases are critical for logistical support). Right now, North Korea can directly threaten South Korea and Japan with nuclear
attack, but the United States can stand back at a safe distance and promise massive retaliation against the North at essentially no
cost or risk. With ICBMs as well as shorter-ranged missiles, North Korea can separately deter each member of the alliance, and
cause each member of the alliance to doubt the commitment of the others. Would the United States really risk San Francisco to
avenge Tokyo?

Coupled with a bit of diplomacy, this could enable North Korea to break one or two partners loose from the alliance on the grounds
that their cities are at risk in a fight that maybe isn't their top priority, and so stop a war that would otherwise topple the North
Korean regime.

How has a nation like North Korea, isolated as it is, advanced these technologies? Where does Kim Jong-un's
regime get the money for it?

We know that North Korea has collaborated with Iran and Pakistan in developing nuclear and/or missile technology in the past,
and to some extent this may be ongoing. They also received assistance from Russian technical and probably military personnel
during the Yeltsin eranot as a matter of Russian government policy, but because the Yeltsin administration wasn't paying
everyone's salary regularly and wasn't keeping track of what they did on the side to make up for that. That collaboration probably
stopped with Putin's ascension. And there have been black-market deals elsewhere: secondhand missiles from Egypt and Syria that
could be reverse-engineered, missile transporters from China, maybe some technology from Ukraine.

"WOULD THE UNITED STATES REALLY RISK SAN FRANCISCO TO AVENGE TOKYO?"

But we must give credit where it is due. Much of thisin recent years, probably most of ithas been North Korea's own doing. They
are a minor and relatively backwards industrial power, but they have devoted about 25 percent of their entire gross domestic
product to defense, and much of that to missiles. The industrial resources and the general level of technology available for
developing weapons in North Korea today, at crippling expense to the civilian economy, are roughly equivalent to the French
defense industry in the 1960s. And France in the 1960s was building a diverse assortment of nuclear weapons.

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Does anyone really know how far off North Korea is to fielding functional nuclear ICBM? What's the conventional
wisdom, accepted range or best guess?
 North Korea could probably test an ICBM at any time, but it is highly unlikely that the initial test would be a complete success.
Given the amount of testing that will likely be required and the competing demands on North Korean resources (such as
the submarine-launched missile program), I and most everyone else I have talked to expect that a North Korean ICBM will most
likely enter operational service shortly after 2020. If I had to make specific bets, I would wager on first (unsuccessful) test sometime
next year and initial operational capability in late 2021, but there is no way even the North Koreans can predict this with any
precision.

Was 2016 a breakthrough year for North Korean missile technology?

It is difficult to be certain how much of what we saw in 2016 was genuinely new or just the first public demonstration of capabilities
that had been developed earlier, but there were some clear milestones. Their two successful nuclear tests should end any real doubt
that they can produce reliable nuclear (but not thermonuclear) warheads, and the Pukguksong-1 and -2 solid-fuel missiles will
provide a much more robust regional warfighting capability than the older Scud derivatives. Their second satellite launch should
prove that 2012 was not a fluke and North Korea can build large, powerful, multistage rockets and missiles on demand.

NORTH KOREA COULD PROBABLY TEST AN ICBM AT ANY TIME, BUT IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THE INITIAL
TEST WOULD BE A COMPLETE SUCCESS.

Their increasing openness in revealing ground tests may reflect older work from their point of view, but enhances the credibility of
their ICBM program. Similarly, we know they have been conducting increasingly realistic training exercises for nuclear warfighting
for many years, but 2016 is when they did their first openly public salvo-firing demonstration.

Still, it wasn't an entirely positive year for the North. The Musudan missile, which may have been a key part of North Korea's
strategic deterrent for nearly a decade, was first put to the test in 2016 and proved to be mostly a dud, with only one success in eight
launches.

What is the significance of the North Koreans use a 2-stage rocket, like the KN-14 missile displayed in parades
and photo ops, as opposed to a 3-stage version?

Getty NurPhoto

The advantage is reliability. North Korean single-stage liquid-fuel rockets, even of well-established design, only work about 80 to
90 percent of the time under combat conditions. Stage separation mechanisms are typically as big a contribution to reliability [or
lack thereof] as the rocket stages themselves. They are simpler than rocket stages, but harder to test realistically on the ground. For
a single-stage missile, that level of reliability is tolerable, and if it doesn't work you just launch another one. If your missile needs
three rocket stages and two separation mechanisms to work, then with typical North Korean engineering you're at about 40 percent
reliability for the complete system. Cutting it down to two stages gets that up above 60 percent.

But even with the lighter and more advanced structural design, the two-stage missile won't have the same range. Our best estimate
is that the three-stage KN-08 will be able to deliver nuclear warheads to a range of about 12,000 kilometersenough to reach the
U.S. East Coastwhile the two-stage KN-14 with a 10,000-kilometer range will be limited to West Coast or Rocky Mountain targets.
It is not clear whether they will continue to develop the less reliable KN-08 as a way to have some chance at striking the US
leadership in Washington, DC, but that does seem to be an important part of their propaganda at least.
There's a lot of worry that North Korean rockets used for space launch can be adapted to carry weapons. Is that
fear valid?

With the exception of the reentry vehicle, the technology required for first-generation ICBMs is very similar for that of space
launch. [You need] large liquid-propellant rocket engines lightweight structures, stage separation mechanisms, and reliable and
reasonably precise guidance.

The specific implementations, however, can be quite different. Almost certainly the North Koreans have in the past used their space
program as a way to build expertise in long-range missile technologies, but the space and missile programs appear to be moving in
different directions at present. The Unha-3 space launch vehicle, which we initially mistook for an ICBM prototype, has design
features that make it ill-suited for missile applicationsin particular, the low thrust and long burn time of its upper stage works
quite well for delivering small satellites, but would be very inefficient for lofting a heavier warhead on a typical ICBM trajectory.
Also, the Unha-3 is already inconveniently large for an ICBM. it could never be made mobile nor effectively concealed, which is
essential for any system North Korea hopes to survive the opening minutes of a war.

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The North Koreans are big on mobile launch systems. What advantage does this give them?

Hardened missile silos are an increasingly obsolete technology in the era of precision-guided conventional weapons capable of
delivering a hard-target penetrator directly onto the silo door. They are still of some use for nations like the U.S. and Russia, with
the strategic depth to keep them thousands of kilometers from any foe, but North Korean missile silos would be unlikely to survive
the first hour of any war.

PUTTING A 40-TON LIQUID-PROPELLANT MISSILE ON A MOBILE TRANSPORTER IS SOMETHING NOBODY HAS

EVER DONE BEFORE.

Every strategic missile we have seen North Korea develop, display, or test, has been designed for mobile deployment. And putting a
40-ton liquid-propellant missile on a mobile transporter is something nobody has ever done before. North Korea would not have
done that if they didn't think it was vital, and I expect that in the longer term they will want even their ICBMs to be highly mobile
solid-propellant systems like those of China.

KN-15 missile transporter.
AFP PHOTO / KCNA VIA KNS
How worried should U.S. and South Korean military planners be when they see a new missile on parade?

North Korea definitely parades missiles that it doesn't operate yet, and it may parade missiles that it will never operate. The former
Soviet Union did the same, not so much plain hoaxes as parading the mock-ups and leftover prototypes of abandoned development
programs. So when North Korea puts something on parade, we have to be careful.

What can we learn from the rocket engine test footage released by the North Korean regime?

The plume of an engine test tells us by its size the approximate thrust level. By its color, opacity, and smokiness, [it tells us]
something of its propellants. If we can see it closely enough, the detailed structure can tell us whether the system has separate
vernier rockets or jet vanes for steering, whether it uses a separate gas generator to drive its fuel pumps or an integral "staged
combustion" cycle. And, at a coarser level, whether it has one thrust chamber and nozzle or several.

The plume of the April 2016 engine test indicated two main nozzles with four vernier rockets, matching the configuration we had
seen on the base of an ICBM or ICBM model some time earlier. Most importantly, the clean and translucent orange color indicated
a fuel with substantial amounts of carbon but not a long-chain hydrocarbon like kerosene (which almost always produces an
opaque flame and copious smoke). The most likely candidate is a compound called Unsymmetrical Dimethylhydrazine.

All of these signatures are consistent with a pair of closely-coupled Isayev 4D10 engines. This is an ex-Soviet design that we had
reason to believe North Korea had obtained for the Musudan missile, but is more advanced and efficient than anything we had
really expected them to be able to develop for the first stage of their ICBMs.

How hard is it to design a warhead that's small enough to fit on a missile but tough enough to work?

AP Ahn Young-joon

If the reentry vehicle is intended to carry a nuclear warhead, it is necessary to verify that the warheadwhich is a fairly precise
piece of machinery including potentially sensitive electronic componentscan survive the acceleration, shock, and vibration of a
missile launch. This is typically done on the ground, placing test articles in centrifuges, on shaker tables, and the like (actual live-
fire testing of nuclear weapons has been exceedingly and fortunately rare). The success of North Korea's missile guidance systems
suggests that they have adequate test capabilities in this area even if they haven't seen fit to show them to us.
 The warhead and the rocket can be developed separately, and the same warhead used on several different types of missile. The
United States has often followed that practice, and it is probably vital for a nation like North Korea that cannot test separate
warheads for every type of missile. The warhead obviously has to be light enough for the missile to carry and small enough to fit
inside the reentry vehicle. Most every North Korean nuclear-capable missile seems to have a payload section about 65 cm in
diameter, appropriate for a first-generation nuclear missile warhead and consistent with the theory that they are using the same
nuclear payload for all of their missiles.

Since North Korea has many more missiles than it can possibly have nuclear warheads, we expect they have interchangeable high
explosive, chemical (nerve gas), and nuclear warheads for most of these missiles.

What challenges remain for North Korea's nuclear program?

If by "miniaturized" you are willing to accept something that will fit into a 65-cm diameter, 500-600 kg reentry vehicle, and if you
are willing to accept a simple atomic bomb with a 10-20 kiloton yield rather than a megaton of thermonuclear fire, then there
unfortunately aren't many technical challenges remaining. Too much of what was secret 70 years ago has leaked (or been openly
released) into the public domain, and for the dedicated nuclear proliferator, there are persistent reports that A.Q. Khan was
peddling one or two proven Chinese nuclear warhead designs along with his uranium enrichment technology in the 1990s. We
know that North Korea was one of his customers.

There is a great deal of detailed engineering work required, so make no mistake: This is a task for a team of well-funded experts
working over a prolonged period. And that work will need interim tests at every stage. But those interim tests can be conducted
covertly, and it is likely that the first actual nuclear explosion will be the proof test of a "miniaturized" nuclear weapon. This was
basically true of the French nuclear program in 1961, would have been true of the aborted but well-documented Swedish and South
African nuclear programs, and is probably true for North Korea. Their first nuclear test seriously underperformed, and it took them
a few years to get it right, but they almost certainly have had a proof-tested warhead suitable for missile delivery since 2013 at the
latest.

This post has been updated and originally ran on April 20th, 2017.
Hydrogen Bomb Test A 'Perfect Success', Can Be Loaded
Onto Missile: North Korea
Hydrogen bombs or H-bombs -- also known as thermonuclear devices -- are far more powerful than the relatively simple atomic weapons
North Korea was believed to have tested so far.

North Korea said it can mount the Hydrogen bomb on it's ballistic missile
SEOUL:

HIGHLIGHTS

1. North Korea carries out its 6th nuclear test

2. The hydrogen bomb test gives North Korea "thermonuclear" status

3. This was the most powerful nuclear test carried out by North Korea so far
North Korea said today it had tested a hydrogen bomb which it can mount on a missile, declaring "perfect success" in its biggest-ever nuclear
detonationand presenting a potent challenge to President Donald Trump.

Pyongyang has long sought the means to deliver an atomic warhead to the United States, its sworn enemy, and the test will infuriate
Washington and regional powers. China, the North's main ally, issued a swift condemnation.

A jubilant newsreader on state television hailed the "unprecedentedly large" blast, adding the device could be mounted on a missile.

It "marked a very significant occasion in attaining the final goal of completing the state nuclear force", she added.

Hydrogen bombs or H-bombs -- also known as thermonuclear devices -- are far more powerful than the relatively simple atomic weapons the
North was believed to have tested so far.

Hours earlier, the North released images of leader Kim Jong-Un at the Nuclear Weapons Institute, inspecting what it said was a miniaturised H-
bomb that could be fitted onto an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

China, Pyongyang's main diplomatic protector, lost no time in issuing "strong condemnation" of the test, which overshadowed the opening of the
BRICS summit in Shanghai by leader Xi Jinping.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe described the test as "absolutely unacceptable".

In Seoul, President Moon Jae-In called for new United Nations sanctions to "completely isolate North Korea" and said the South would discuss
deploying "the strongest strategic assets of the US military".

That could be taken as a reference to tactical nuclear weapons, which were withdrawn by Washington in 1991. Their return would represent a
significant escalation by the allies and alarm Pyongyang, which believes itself to be at risk of invasion.

US monitors measured a 6.3-magnitude tremor near the North's main testing site, which South Korean experts said was five to six times
stronger than that from the 10-kiloton test carried out a year ago.

The tremor was felt in northeastern China, with people in the border city of Yanji saying they fled their homes in their underwear, and in the
Russian Pacific city of Vladivostok.

Whatever the final figure for test's yield turned out to be, said Jeffrey Lewis of the armscontrolwonk website, it was "a staged thermonuclear
weapon" which represents a significant advance in its weapons program.

Chinese monitors said they had detected a second tremor shortly afterwards of 4.6 magnitude that could be due to a "collapse (cave in)",
suggesting the rock over the underground blast had given way.

'Super explosive power'

Pyongyang triggered a new ramping up of tensions in July, when it carried out two successful tests of an ICBM, the Hwasong-14, which
apparently brought much of the US mainland within range.

It has since threatened to send a salvo of rockets towards the US territory of Guam, and last week fired a missile over Japan and into the
Pacific, the first time time it has ever acknowledged doing so.
Trump has warned Pyongyang that it faces "fire and fury", and that Washington's weapons are "locked and loaded".

Analysts believe Pyongyang has been developing weapons capability to give it a stronger hand in any negotiations with the US.

"North Korea will continue with their nuclear weapons programme unless the US proposes talks," Koo Kab-Woo of Seoul's University of North
Korean Studies told AFP.

He pointed to the fact that Pakistan -- whose nuclear programme is believed to have links with the North's -- conducted six nuclear tests in total,
and may not have seen a need for any further blasts.

"If we look at it from Pakistan's example, the North might be in the final stages" of becoming a nuclear state, he said.

Pictures of Kim at the Nuclear Weapons Institute showed the young leader, dressed in a black suit, examining a metal casing with a shape akin
to a peanut shell.

The device was a "thermonuclear weapon with super explosive power made by our own efforts and technology", KCNA cited Kim as saying,
and "all components of the H-bomb were 100 percent domestically made".

Despite its power there were no readioactive leaks, KCNA said in a later report.

Actually mounting a warhead onto a missile would amount to a significant escalation on the North's part, as it would create a risk that it was
preparing an attack.

Failure of sanctions

Pyongyang, which says it needs nuclear weapons to defend itself, carried out its first atomic test in 2006.
Its fifth detonation, in September last year, caused a 5.3 magnitude quake and according to Seoul had a 10-kiloton yield -- still less than the 15-
kiloton US device which destroyed Hiroshima in 1945.

The North has been subjected to seven rounds of United Nations Security Council sanctions over its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes,
but always insists it will continue to pursue them.

Atomic or "A-bombs" work on the principle of nuclear fission. Hydrogen bombs work on fusion and are far more powerful.

No H-bomb has ever been used in combat but they make up most of the world's nuclear arsenals.

In latest test, North Korea

detonates its most powerful
nuclear device yet
Play Video 1:57
Trump sharply condemns North Korea's latest nuclear test
President Trump posted a series of tweets condemning a nuclear weapons test by North Korea on Sunday, Sept. 3.
Trump called their actions 'hostile and dangerous' to the U.S. (Reuters)
By Anna Fifield September 3 at 10:40 AM
TOKYO North Korea sharply raised the stakes Sunday in its standoff with the rest of the world, detonating a
powerful nuclear device that it claimed was a hydrogen bomb that could be attached to a missile capable of reaching
the mainland United States.
Even if Kim Jong Uns regime is exaggerating its feats, scientific evidence showed that North Koreahad crossed an
important threshold and had detonated a nuclear device that was vastly more powerful than its last and almost
seven times the size of the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima.
Tensions had already been running high, with Kim repeatedly defying international condemnation and increasingly
blunt warnings by President Trump, and continuing to launch ballistic missiles.
But Sundays blast North Koreas sixth nuclear test but the first since Trump took office could escalate those
tensions to a new level.
Trump sharply condemned the test, saying North Korea is very hostile and dangerous to the United States.
In a pair of tweets issued Sunday morning, Trump wrote: North Korea has conducted a major Nuclear Test. ... North
Korea is a rogue nation which has become a great threat and embarrassment to China, which is trying to help but
with little success.
Trump also delivered an admonishment of sorts to South Korea, saying that appeasement with North Korea will not
work and suggesting that more severe steps must be taken to influence Kims regime.
China said Sunday that it resolutely opposes and strongly condemns the test, adding to denunciations from South
Korea and Japan.
The nuclear device that North Korea tested appeared to be so large that Vipin Narang, an expert on nuclear
proliferation and strategy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, called it a city buster.
Now, with even relatively inaccurate intercontinental ballistic missile technology, they can destroy the better part of
a city with this yield, Narang said.

[ Dont be surprised by North Koreas missiles. Kim Jong Un is doing what he said he would. ]
The nuclear test took place at exactly noon local time at North Koreas Punggye-ri testing site and was recorded as
a 6.3-magnitude earthquake, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. It was followed eight minutes later by a 4.1-
magnitude earthquake that appeared to be a tunnel collapsing at the site.
 North Koreans watch a news report showingNorth
Korea's nuclear test on a screen in Pyongyang, North Korea. Kyodo/via REUTERS (Kyodo/Reuters)
Japan immediately sent up sniffer planes to try to measure radiation levels.

North Korean state media said the test was carried out to determine the accuracy and credibility of its H-bomb to
be placed as the payload of the ICBM. North Korea tested its intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time in
July, and its second test later that month showed that the rocket could theoretically reach Denver or Chicago.
Those launches caused Trump to warn that if North Korea continued its provocations, it would face fire and fury.
He later tweeted that the U.S. military was locked and loaded.
North Korean television on Sunday broadcast footage of Kim signing the order to detonate. Sundays test, part of the
regimes plan for building a strategic nuclear force, was a perfect success, the state-run Korean Central News
Agency said.
Earlier Sunday, KCNA had released photos of Kim inspecting what was described as a hydrogen bomb that could be
attached to an ICBM, the same device that appeared to have been detonated just hours later.
All the components of the H-bomb were homemade, so North Korea could produce powerful nuclear weapons as
many as it wants, the KCNA quoted Kim as saying.
[ North Koreas latest launch suggests it rejects both U.S. threats and offers to talk ]
Analysts were poring over the photos and the data Sunday, especially questioning North Koreas claim to have
produced a two-stage thermonuclear weapon.
David Albright, a nuclear weapons expert and president of the Institute for Science and International Security, was
skeptical of North Koreas claims and said the photos were probably propaganda.
But there was no doubt that North Korea was making progress. South Korean officials and independent nuclear
scientists estimated the yield the amount of energy released by the weapon to be 100 kilotons. That would make
it almost seven times as strong as the U.S. atomic bomb that destroyed the Japanese city of Hiroshima in 1945.
At that level, North Koreas nuclear device would be very significant and destabilizing, Albright said. It would show
that their design, whatever the specific design, has achieved a yield that is capable of destroying substantial parts of
large modern cities.
South Koreas meteorological agency said Sundays explosion was as much as six times the size of the fifth test, in
September last year, and 11 times the size of the January 2016 detonation.
Still, Albright doubted that North Korea had been able to make such a warhead small enough to fit onto a missile.
After firing increasingly long-range missiles, including the two that can theoretically reach the U.S. mainland, into the
sea between the Korean Peninsula and Japan, North Korea last week sent a missile over Japan and into the Pacific
Ocean, claiming it was capable of reaching Guam, a U.S. territory.
Analysts said that appeared to be a dummy run for firing an ICBM on a normal trajectory over Japan and into the
Pacific, instead of straight up and straight down as with its first two tests.

Although governments and experts would continue to assess the technical aspects of the latest nuclear test, MITs
Narang said the danger is significant, regardless of whether this was a lesser boosted fission device or a true hydrogen
bomb, or whether North Korea had mastered the technology to deliver this accurately to a target.
It really doesnt matter now from a deterrence perspective, he said. Mated on the ICBM, you dont want this thing
anywhere near a city near you.

[ North Korea could cross ICBM threshold next year, U.S. officials warn in new assessment ]
Sundays test caused anger across the region, with South Korean President Moon Jae-in saying he would never
allow North Korea to continue advancing its nuclear and missile technologies, according to his national security
adviser.
South Korean military leaders warned North Korea that they, together with their American allies, were fully
equipped to punish North Korea.
But Trump later admonished the Moon government. South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of
appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing! he wrote in a third Sunday morning
tweet.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he would not tolerate the nuclear test. Abe had spoken with Trump three
hours before the test and said afterward that they had agreed to increase pressure on North Korea and make it
change its policies.
The White House said the two leaders discussed ongoing efforts to maximize pressure on North
Korea. Trump made the call from Air Force One, as he returned home to Washington from his visit to storm-
battered Texas and Louisiana.
The two leaders reaffirmed the importance of close cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea
in the face of the growing threat from North Korea, the White House statement said.
All eyes will turn to China to see whether it will be angry enough to impose true punishment on North Korea.
China has expressed annoyance at North Koreas frequent ballistic missile launches, but analysts have said that
Beijing probably would not take serious action unless there is another nuclear test.
Chinas primary concern is stability on its borders, and it has shied away from implementing sanctions that would
seriously undermine the regime in Pyongyang, analysts have said. Almost all international sanctions, such as recent
bans on coal and seafood exports, rely on Chinese enforcement because about 90 percent of North Korean trade goes
through China.
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