Kong
NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM
Report 365
Travel Estimation Techniques
for Urban Planning
WILLIAM A. MARTIN
NANCY A. NCGUCKIN
Barton-Aschman Associates, inc.
‘Washington, OC
Subjoet eas
Planing and Adinsaton
esearch Sponsored by the American Association of Sate
Highway and Transportation Official in Cooperation vith te
Federal Highway Administration
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
NariowAL EseancH Court,
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1998CONTENTS
10
SUMMARY
CHAPTER 1 Introduction
Purpose and Organization of Manual, 4
‘Travel-Demand Forecasting: Trends and Issues, 4
‘Areas of Development,
‘The Four-Stop Travel-Demand Porecasting Process, S
Model Iceration and Equilibrium, 6
‘Summary of Techniques and Parameters,
‘Trip Generation, 7
‘Trip Distibation, 7
External Trip Estimation, 8
Mode-Choice Analysis, 8
Automobile Occupancy Characteristics, 8
‘Time-of-Day Characteristics, 8
‘Traffic Assignment, 8
Capacity Analysis, 9
Developrrent Density/Highway Spacing Relationships, 9
Data Sources, 9
se Study, 9
‘Summary, 9
CHAPTER 2. Building a Transportation Database
Tntroduetion 10
Network Data, 10
Base Network, 10
Source for Network Data, 10
Digitized Map Files, 10
Scaled Maps, 11
Network Coverage, 11
Network attributes, 12
Link Distance, 12
Link Speeds, 12
Link Capacity, 12
‘Area Type Considerations, 13
Final Network Database, 13,
‘Transit Networks, 13,
Socioeconomic Data, 13
Structure of the TAZs, 13
Relationstip to Census Geography, 14
TAZ and Highway Network Comparability, 14
Sources for Socioeconomic Data, 14
Data Souree Deficiencies, 15
Control Totals forthe Database, 15,
Impact and Uses of GIS on Databases, 15
Geocoding, 15
Socioeconomic Dats, 16
Cartography, 16
Case Study, 16
Socioeconomic Data, 16
Network Description, 18
‘Traffic Count Data, 18
Summary, 19
CHAPTER 3. Trip Generation
Introduction, 20
Basis for Development, 20,
Site-Speciie Vehicle Trip Rats, 20
‘Model Trip Rates, 22
Data Require for Application, 24
Site-Specic Vehicle Trip Rates, 24
Model Trip Rates, 24
Trip Generation Data and Examples of Use, 27
Sit-Spectie Webicle Tips, 27
Model Trip Rates, 28Balancing Productions and Altractions, 32
Limitation of Data, 33,
Case Study, 34
‘Trip Productions, 34
‘Trip Atractions, 34
Balancing Productions and Attractions, 35
36 CHAPTER 4 Trip Distribution
Introduction, 36
Basis for Development, 36
‘Theory of the Gravity Model, 36
Trip Distribution Process, 38
‘Travel Impedances, 38 {
Inteazonal Travel Times, 39
‘Terminal Times, 39
Choice of Friction Factors, 39
‘Average Trp Lengths, 40
‘Trip-Length Frequency Distribution, 41
Look-Up Tables Versus Formulas, 41
Creation of Trip Tables, 43
‘Method for Spliting Trip Tables for Coridor and Subarea Applications, 44
Case Study, 45
Estimation of Travel Times, 45,
Inurazonal Times, 45, f
Terminal Times, 45
Choice of Friction Factors, 45
Creation and Assignment of Free-Flow Trip Tables, 46
Creation and Assignment of Congested Trip Tables, 46
48 CHAPTERS External Travel Estimation
Introduction, 48
Basis for Development, 48
Estimation of Through Trips at External Stations, 49
Distribution of Through Trips Between Stations, 50
Example of Through-Trip Table Estimation, $1 fl
Estimation of Exteral-Internel Trip Productions and Attractions, 53
Distribution of Internal-External and Exteral-Intemal Trips, 56
Case Study, 56
(Classification of External Stations, $7
Estimation of Through-Trip Percentages, 57
Distribution of Through Trips to External-External Trip Table, 57
(Conversion of Internal-External Trips to Person-Trip Productions
and Attractions, $9 |
‘Summary, 60 |
62 CHAPTER 6 Mode-Cholce Analysis
Introduction, 62 |
Basis for Development, 62, l
Logit Formulation, 62
Incremental Logit Formulation, 63, )
Model Coefficients, 64 |
Incremental Model Application, 64
Example Application of Incremental Mode-Choice Model, 65
Problem, 67
Summary of Example Problem Results, 73
Analysis of Travel Demand Management (TDM) Strategies, 73,
Case Study, 75,
16 CHAPTER 7 Automobile-Occupancy Characteristics
Introduction, 76
Basis for Development, 76
Features and Limitations, 77 |
‘Variation in Auto Occupancy by Urbanized Area Population and by Trip
Purpose, 77Variation in Auto Occupancy by Time of Day, 77
Variation in Auto Occupancy by Income Level, 77
Variation in Auto Occupancy by Facility Type, 79
Data Requirements and Example Problems, 80
Usefulness of Regionally Developed Models, 80
(Case Study, 80
81 CHAPTERS Time-of-Day Characteristics
Introduction, 81
Basis for Development, 82
Vehicle Travel, 82
Diurnal Distibotion, 82
Use of Time-of Day Tables, 82
‘Transit Hourly Distributions, 84
‘Trip Matrix Conversion Factors, 85
Creation of an Origin-Destination Trip Table, 87
Case Study, 91
93 CHAPTER 9 ‘Traffic Assignment Procedures
Introduction, 93,
Basis for Development, 94
‘Traffic Assignment Model Parameters, 94
‘Application of Volume-Delay Curves in Highway Assignment, 94
[Node Characteristics, 96
Validation of Highway Assignment and Network, 96
Distribution of Assigned Volumes Among Available Facilites, 96
‘Traffic Shift Methodology for Corridors, 100
Case Study, 108,
104 CHAPTER 10 Capacity Analysis
Introduction, 104
Basis for Development, 104
Initial Settings for Capacities for Use in Travel Forecasting Models, 105
‘Assumptions and Extensions fr Initial Capacity, 105,
Determination of Intersection Capacity, 107
Input Data Requirements, 107
‘Worksheet Applications, 108
‘Computational Requirements, 108
Instructions forthe Lane Volume Worksheet, 109
Signal Operations Worksheet, 114
Limitations cf the Planning Method, 117
Iustrated Example, 117
123. CHAPTER 11. Development Density/lighway Spacing Relationships
Introduction, 123
Basis for Development, 123
‘Data Required for Application, 124
Features and Limitations, 124
Limitations ofthe Methodology and Substitutability of Local Data, 124
Applying the Development Density/Highway Spacing Methodology, 125
Steps in Appliction, 126
Feedack, 131,
‘An Example Application, 132
Input Information, 132
Methodology, 133
(utput information, 135
136 CHAPTER 12 Case Study Application of Default Parameters
Introduction, 136
‘Transportation Database, 136
Socioeconomic Data, 136
[Network Description, 138
Traffic Count Data, 138
‘Trip Generaion, 138
‘Trip Productions, 138‘Trip Atractions, 139)
External Travel, 140
‘Classification of External Stations, 140
Estimation of Through-Trip Percentages, 140
Distbution of Through Trips to Extenal-External Trp Table, 141
‘Conversion of Internal-Exteral Trips to Person-Trip Productions
‘and Attractions, 142
Balancing Productions and Attractions, 142
‘Trip Distribution, 144
Estimation of Free-Flow Travel Times, 144
Intrazonal Times, 145
‘Terminal Times, 145
(Choice of Friction Factors, 146
Creation of Free-Flow Trip Tables, 146
Made-Choice Analysis, 147
‘Automabile-Occupancy Characteristics, 147
Time-of-Day Characteristics, 147
‘Tealfic Assignment of Free-Flow Trip Table, 148,
Creation and Assignment of Congested Trip Tables, 148
“Model Validation and Sereenline Comparisons, 148
Conetusions, 150,
152 BIBLIOGRAPHY
154 APPENDIX A NTPS and Home Interview Survey Data
187 APPENDIXB Asheville, North Carolina, Case Study
AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
‘The research reported herein was performed under NCHRP
Project 8-29 by Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc.
William A. Martin, Principal Associate and Jobn R. Hamburg,
Vice President, were the principal investigators. The other authors
ofthis report are Nancy A. MeGuckin, Senior Associate; Hugh
Morris, Associate; Sawn Sabanayagam, Senior Associate; Thomas
Harrington, Associate; and Matthew Lawor, Inter. Other person-
nel who contributed significantly to this report were David Kurth,
Principal Associate; Richard Donnelly, Principal Associate; ard
Eric Bierce, Senior Associate
Sincerest thanks are extended to all the agencies and ind
{duals who contributed time and effort in responding to interviews
and contributing local data for the parameters set forth in ths
report.‘rt,
‘and
:
SUMMARY
TRAVEL ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES
FOR URBAN PLANNING
‘This project was conducted in two phases. The first phase was to identify the critical
travel estimation areas that would require updating or adding to the earlier NCHRP
Report 187. The second phase was to collect the necessary dala, update the travel esti-
‘mation parameters and techniques, and prepare the revised report, During the fist phase
of this project a survey was conducted of the metropolitan planning organizations
(MPOs) and state DOTs with the objective of identifying
* If and how NCHRP Report 187 was used,
‘+ What issues the transpcrtation planners are facing that place added demands on the
travel demand model, and
‘+ Any travel surveys that the agency had conducted in recent years.
‘The survey found that the great majority of applications of the quick response tech-
niques and parameters were for trip generation, either the site-specific vehicle rates or
the general houschold-based trip production models. The mode choice procedures con-
tained in NCHRP Report 1£7 had never been used by almost 90 percent of the respon-
dents and only 3 percent ofthe respondents ate still using the model choice technique.
With the rapid growth in the capacity and deployment of microcomputers, the use of
manual application techniques has been minimized. This report concentrates on travel
parameters that can be applied in any of the available travel demand programs. The
extensive, non-network-based, manual procedures (e.g., trip distribution and traffic
assignment) contained in tke earlier report are not included in this report. The travel
parameters and techniques presented in this report follow the basic four-step process:
trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice, and traffic assignment.
A chapter has been included that discusses the databases required to build a travel
demand model, These include supply-side data (e.., highway and transit networks) and
demand-side data (e.g., zonal socioeconomic data on population and employment). A
description of the data requirements is presented along with sources for building the
database. Also in this chapter isa brief discussion of the use of geographic information
systems (GIS) and the opportunities for using GIS in the building of the travel demand
database and in model application. The survey of MPOs and state DOT revealed that
‘more than one-half of the agencies have GIS available.For trip generation analysis, wo sets of parameters are presented. The first set rep-
resents vehicle trips generated by specific site activites, The data for these rates were
extracted from the Institute of Traffic Engineers’ Trip Gevievation Manual, Sth Edition
The second set of rates are typical for trip production and attraction models, These rates
represent average daily person trips and were arrived at by using both the data from the
recent National Personal ‘Transportation Survey and several home interview surveys,
taken since 1985, An interesting finding in this study is that, although the trip rates are
divided by urban areas with different populations, the variation between small and large
urban areas was not as great as presented in the NCHRP Report 187. The rates are more
closely grouped around an average of 9.0 daily person trips per houschold, Different
rates are presented forthe population ranges of $0,000 to 200,000; 200,000 to 500,000;
500,000 to 1,000,000; and greater than 1,000,000.
‘The trip distribution section presents the standard gravity model formulation. The
report assumes that the user will be developing the zone-to-zone travel times from a
network-based travel demand package and the default data required are the travel
impedance friction factors. The friction factors are presented as both a gamma function
and a lookup table. Presented in this section is a discussion of how the gravity model
can be calibrated to match observed trip length distributions. Unlike the trip generation
section, the default friction factors are not grouped by urban area size. The trip distri-
bution within an urban area depends heavily on both the local highway (and transit net-
‘work for areas with significant transit shares) network and the geographic location of
the households and employment.
External travel estimation has been the least documented component of the travel
demand models. A chapter has been included that presents a procedure for estimating
through, internal-extemal, and external-internal trips for small urban areas, The research
concluded that, although the procedure works adequately for small urban areas, iis not
applicable for larger areas. Research into external travel revealed that very litte has been