Professional Documents
Culture Documents
EXAMPLE 1:
An electronics company is planning to
introduce a new camera phone. The company
commissions a marketing report for each new
product that predicts either the success or the failure
of the product. Of new products introduced by the
company, 60% have been successes. Furthermore,
70% of their successful products were predicted to
be successes, while 40% of failed products were
COUNTING TECHNIQUES predicted to be successes. Find the probability that
this new camera phone will be successful if its
Aliswag
Legista success has been predicted.
Navarro
SOLUTION EXAMPLE 2:
Let S be the event that a randomly chosen product actually is a success. A group of six people play the game of odd
We are told that p(S) = 0.6 and therefore p() = 0.4. person out to determine who will buy refreshments.
Let P be the event that a randomly chosen product is predicted to be
successful. Each person ips a fair coin. If there is a person
We are told that p(|S)= 0.7 and p(| )= 0.4. We are asked for p(|P). We whose outcome is not the same as that of any other
use Bayes' theorem
member of the group, this person has to buy the
refreshments. What is the probability that there is an
odd person out after the coins are ipped once?
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SOLUTION EXAMPLE 3:
We can model this problem using the binomial distribution.
We have here n = 6 Bernoulli trials (the six coins being flipped), with A pair of dice is loaded. The probability that a 4
p = (the probability of heads, which we will arbitrarily call success).
appears on the rst die is 2/7, and the probability
There are two ways in which there could be an odd person out.
1. there could be five heads and one tail. that a 3 appears on the second die is 2/7. Other
2. there could be one head and five tails. outcomes for each die appear with probability 1/7.
Thus we want to know the probability that the number of successes is
What is the probability of 7 appearing as the sum of
either k = 5 or k = 1 . According to the formula developed in this section the numbers when the two dice are rolled?
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The random variable that counts the number of rolls A lot of 12 television sets includes 2 with white
has a geometric distribution with p = 1/6, since the cords. If three of the sets are chosen at random for
probability of getting a sum of 7 when a pair of dice shipment to a hotel, how many sets with white cords
is rolled is 1/6. According to the theorem, expected can the shipper expect to send to the hotel?
value is 1/(1/6) = 6.
Now we have,
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SOLUTION
The expected value (expected income) from her present job is:
(0 x $0.05) + (0.15 x $100) + (0.25 x $200) + (0.45 x $300) + (0.1 x $400) = $240