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Use of structured antedependence models for the genetic

analysis of growth curves1

F. Jaffrezic2, E. Venot, D. Laloe, A. Vinet, and G. Renand

INRA Quantitative and Applied Genetics, 78352 Jouy-en-Josas Cedex, France

ABSTRACT: Growth curve analysis is an important of longitudinal data analysis. It was found that the
issue for many agricultural and laboratory species, for SAD models fit the growth process better with far fewer
both phenotypic and genetic studies. The aim of this parameters than the RR models (9 instead of 16 covari-
paper is to present the use of a novel statistical ap- ance parameters for the phenotypic analysis, and 14
proach, namely the structured antedependence (SAD) instead of 21 for the genetic analysis). Despite this
models, to deal with this issue. The basic idea of these smaller number of covariance parameters, the likeli-
models is that an observation at time t can be explained hood value was found to be much higher with the SAD
by the previous observations. These models are espe- vs. the RR models, with a difference of 262.9 for the
phenotypic analysis with a quartic polynomial for the
cially appropriate to deal with cumulative traits such
RR and 751.5 for the genetic analysis with a cubic poly-
as growth, as BW at age t clearly depends on BW mea-
nomial for both the genetic and environmental parts of
sures at ages (t 1), (t 2), etc. These models were the RR model. The SAD models also proved to be better
applied on an INRA experimental Charolais herd data able to interpolate missing values. Heritability, genetic,
set. The data comprised BW records for 560 cows born and environmental correlation coefficients were esti-
over an 11-yr period (from 1988 to 1998) from 60 sires mated for weights from birth to adulthood. The struc-
and 369 dams. The proposed SAD models were com- tured antedependence models proved, in this study, to
pared with the well-known random regression (RR) be very appropriate to model growth data in a parsimo-
models that are already widely used in various areas nious and flexible way.

Key Words: Beef Cattle, Genetic Analysis, Growth Curves, Random Regression Models,
Structured Antedependence Models

2004 American Society of Animal Science. All rights reserved. J. Anim. Sci. 2004. 82:34653473

Introduction chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate the parameters,


which can be quite time consuming, especially for large
Growth curve analysis is an important issue for many data files.
agricultural species such as beef cattle, pigs, chicken, On the other hand, Meyer (2002, 2004) proposed us-
and rabbit. In the case of genetic studies, a few method- ing random regression (RR) models (Diggle et al., 1994),
ologies have been proposed. Blasco et al. (2003) pro- as in the classical longitudinal data analyses. This ap-
posed using parametric growth curves, such as the proach has already been extensively investigated in the
Gompertz curve, that have interpretable parameters in context of test-day records in dairy cattle and proved
terms of growth rate and adult BW. Each parameter to have a few drawbacks. In particular, polynomial
of the curve is then decomposed into genetic and envi- functions tend to show border effects that lead to the
ronmental components, as in classical quantitative ge- prediction of unreasonable values at the extreme points
netics theory, and selection can then be made on these
of the data. A possible way to overcome this drawback
parameters. This approach, however, leads to nonlinear
would be to use spline functions instead of polynomials;
mixed models, and therefore requires the use of Markov
they do, however, still require a quite large number
of parameters.
Other approaches have been proposed in the context
1
Thanks to W. G. Hill for very interesting comments and ideas. of longitudinal data analyses, such as structured ante-
Data were provided by the INRA experimental center located near dependence (SAD) models (Nunez-Anton and Zimmer-
Bourges, France.
2 man, 2000). These models are especially appropriate
Correspondencee-mail: jaffrezic@dga2.jouy.inra.fr.
Received June 17, 2004. for cumulative traits, as the observation at time t is
Accepted September 7, 2004. defined as a function of the previous observations.

3465
3466 Jaffrezic et al.

The aim of this paper was to investigate the use of A further advantage of modeling the antedependence
these SAD models for growth curve analysis and apply parameters with a continuous function of the lag time
them to the genetic analysis of an experimental beef is that it allows dealing with unequally spaced data,
cattle data set. as well as unbalanced data. It is therefore not required
that the animals be weighed at regular time intervals
Materials and Methods or that the times of measurement are the same for all
the animals. To be able to find an appropriate paramet-
Structured Antedependence Models ric curve, the time spacing should not be completely
random. The model can, for example, easily deal with
Let Yi(tj) be the observed body weight at age tj for smaller time intervals at earlier rather than late ages.
animal i. It is assumed that it can be decomposed into Although antedependence models are based on an
genetic and environmental components, as follows: idea similar to autoregressive models, due to the initial
condition gi(t0) = gi(t0), there is no constraint on the
Yi(tj) = (tj) + gi(tj) + ei(tj) [1] antedependence parameters 1j and 2j, whereas they
have to be between 1 and 1 for autoregressive models.
where (tj) corresponds to the fixed effects and includes Therefore, any parametric function can be used to
the mean curve in the population. Functions gi(tj) and model these parameters, depending on the biological
ei(tj) are Gaussian processes, which are independent of process studied.
one another, have an expected value of 0 at each age, Parameters gi(tj) are assumed normally distributed,
and covariance functions G(tj,tk) and E(tj,tk), respec- with mean 0 and variance g2(tj) that are termed inno-
tively, for two ages tj and tk. They represent the age- vation variances. Gabriel (1962) originally suggested
dependent genetic and environmental deviations, re- estimating one innovation variance for each time of
spectively, for animal i. It is assumed that J measure- measurement. This again leads to a quite large number
ment times are available with t1 < t2 < ... < tJ. These of parameters when many different times of measure-
ages are assumed to be the same for all the individuals; ment are analyzed. In their structured antedependence
however, the model is able to deal with missing values. models, Nunez-Anton and Zimmerman (2000) again
The idea of antedependence models, as originally pro- suggested using a continuous function of time to model
posed by Gabriel (1962), is that an observation at time these innovation variances, such as polynomials. For a
tj can be explained by the previous observations. An quadratic polynomial, for instance:
antedependence structure of order r is defined by the
fact that the kth observation (k > r) given the r preceding
ln g2(tj) = a + b tj + c tj2 [5]
ones is independent of all further observations (Gabriel,
1962). Generalizing this concept to genetic analysis, a
In this case, therefore, only three parameters will
second-order structured antedependence model for the
have to be estimated, regardless of the number of times
genetic part gi(tj), for animal i, can be written as:
of measurement J. This parametric modeling of the
error variances can also be related to the structural
gi(t0) = gi(t0) [2] model proposed by Foulley and Quaas (1995). The use
of a polynomial function to model the variances might,
gi(t1) = 11 gi(t0) + gi(t1) [3] as with the RR models, show some border effects. These
border effects will, however, be far less important for
gi(tj) = 1j gi(tj 1)) + 2j gi(tj 2) + gi(tj) [4] the SAD models than for the RR case as the estimated
covariance function of the process is not a simple func-
for j 2. tion of these polynomials but rather a complex combina-
Parameters 1j and 2j are termed antedependence tion of the antedependence parameters and innovation
parameters. As originally proposed by Gabriel (1962), variances. In practice, simple parametric functions are
these parameters were estimated for each time j. There- sufficient to adequately model these variances. When
fore, if J measurement times were considered, (J 1) possible, it is best to fit an unstructured antedepen-
parameters 1j and (J 2) parameters 2j had to be dence model (UAD) as originally proposed by Gabriel
estimated. If the number of measurement times is large (1962), which will give a nonparametric estimation of
and the order of antedependence high, that will lead to the antedependence parameters and innovation vari-
a very large number of parameters to be estimated. ances and will allow one to choose the most appropriate
Therefore, Nunez-Anton and Zimmerman (2000) pro- parametric functions of time.
posed in their SAD models to decrease this number of To relate this modeling to the genetic covariance func-
parameters by fitting a parametric function of the lag tion G(tj,tk), for two ages tj and tk, Pourahmadi (1999)
time for these antedependence terms. For example, showed that a Cholesky decomposition of the inverse
when using an exponential function, for j = 1, ..., J: of the covariance matrix can be easily calculated using
1j (tj, tj1) = exp(1 [tj tj1]) and 2j (tj, tj2) = exp(2 the antedependence parameters and innovation vari-
[tj tj2]) ances. If there are J measurement times, let G be the
Genetic analysis of growth curves 3467
genetic covariance matrix, of dimension J J. It can Table 1. Likelihood values (Log L) and Bayesian informa-
be shown that: tion criterion (BIC) for the phenotypic analysis using dif-
ferent structured antedependence (SAD) models, with
G1 = LD1L [6] antedependence up to order 3, and with the antedepen-
dence parameters modeled as constant (const), linear (lin),
where L is a lower triangular matrix with 1 on the quadratic (quad), or exponential (exp) functions of time,
diagonal and negatives of the antedependence coeffi- different random regression (RR) models based on poly-
cients rj (r = 1, ..., R for SAD(R), j = 1, ..., J) below nomials up to order 4 (quartic), and a completely unstruc-
the diagonal entries, and D is a diagonal matrix with tured model (US) with a 10 10 covariance matrix
innovation variances j2(j = 1, ..., J) as components. An Modela Parametersb Log L BIC
interesting computational property is that the inverse
G1 is sparse. Indeed, for a second-order antedepen- US 55 2,003.4 1,766.9
SAD3 quad-lin-const 9 1,615.7 1,577.0
dence model, for instance, only the first two subdiago- SAD3 quad-const-const 8 1,608.3 1,573.9
nals are nonzero. Antedependence and innovation vari- SAD3 quad-lin-lin 10 1,616.9 1,573.9
ance parameters can be estimated by restricted maxi- SAD2 quad-lin 8 1,606.8 1,572.4
mum likelihood procedures. In the following example, SAD2 quad-const 7 1,598.2 1,568.1
SAD1 exp 5 1,553.1 1,531.6
these parameters were estimated using the OWN func-
SAD1 quad 6 1,551.8 1,526.0
tion of ASREML (Gilmour et al., 2002), which requires SAD2 const 5 1,527.0 1,505.5
specification of the covariance matrix and derivatives SAD3 const 6 1,529.5 1,503.7
with respect to each of the parameters. As presently SAD1 lin 5 1,524.6 1,503.1
implemented, it is necessary to build the J J covari- SAD1 const 4 1,503.0 1,485.8
RR quartic 16 1,352.8 1,284.0
ance matrix, which will be the same for all the animals.
RR cubic 11 1,063.9 1,016.6
The J times of measurement are therefore assumed to RR quad 7 763.7 733.6
be the same for all the individuals, and should not be RR linear 4 422.8 405.6
too large (20 at most). It is not required, however, that a
Numbers following SAD indicate the order of antedependence.
these ages should be equally spaced or that the animals b
Parameters = number of covariance parameters in the model.
have measurements at all times.

Presentation of the Data and the antedependence parameters were either con-
sidered as constant, linear, quadratic, or exponential
Data analyzed in this study came from an INRA ex- functions of age. Random regression models based on
perimental Charolais herd (Mialon et al., 2001). The polynomials up to order 4 (quartic) were used.
data set comprised BW records for 560 cows born over Models were compared using the likelihood values
an 11-yr period (from 1988 to 1998) from 60 sires and and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC; Schwarz,
369 dams. Data were collected monthly from 1998 to 1978): BIC = ln L 0.5 nc ln(N p), where ln L is the
2003, and only measurements at 10 different ages were restricted maximum likelihood value, nc is the number
considered here for each animal, at approximately 0, of covariance parameters in the model, p is the number
112, 224, 364, 540, 720, 900, 1,260, 1,620 and 1,980 d. of fixed effects (also equal to rank (X)), and N is the total
Although the same ages were considered for each ani- number of observations. The number of fixed effects in
mal, they were unequally spaced and some records were the model was equal to 25 and the total number of
missing. The fixed effects were the year of birth of the observations was 5,455.
animal, twinning effect and the dam age at calving. To This analysis was followed by a genetic study. An
obtain the most accurate fit, the mean curve in the animal model was used and the pedigree file comprised
population was modeled nonparametrically by fitting 807 animals. Several SAD and RR models were com-
one mean at each age by including in the fixed effects pared for both the genetic and permanent environmen-
(tj) of Eq. [1] the variable age as a factor. This was tal parts. As before, models were compared using the
possible because only 10 measurements were consid- likelihood values and the BIC criterion. The estimated
ered for each animal and the data had very few missing genetic parameters obtained at different ages for the
values. In other practical cases, however, it could be chosen models are presented in the next section.
better to use parametric or semiparametric functions
of age, such as spline functions. Results

Analysis Phenotypic Analysis


First, a phenotypic analysis of the data was per- As shown in Table 1, it was found that even the
formed to compare various different SAD and RR mod- simplest first-order SAD model (with only four parame-
els. Here, models with antedependence up to order 3 ters for the covariance structure) provided a better like-
were investigated. The innovation variances were as- lihood value than the quartic RR model (with 16 pa-
sumed to be changing as a quadratic function of age, rameters).
3468 Jaffrezic et al.

terms can easily be implemented in ASREML (Gilmour


et al., 2002) using the OWN function; it simply requires
specifying the derivatives of the chosen function with
respect to each of the parameters.
The antedependence model presented in Eq. [7] re-
quired only nine parameters for the covariance struc-
ture and gave a likelihood value of 1,615.7, whereas
the most complicated RR model required 16 parame-
ters, with a likelihood value equal to 1,352.8.
Figure 2 gives the correlation functions estimated
with the chosen SAD and RR models. To evaluate the
goodness-of-fit of these functions, an unstructured co-
variance matrix (10 10) was also fitted to the data.
The estimated correlation function obtained with this
saturated model is also presented in Figure 2. One of the
main drawbacks of the RR models based on polynomial
functions can clearly be seen here, namely border effects
(Druet et al., 2003). In fact, although the global shape
of the correlation function seems to be close to the un-
structured one, a strongly negative correlation was esti-
Figure 1. Estimated first-order antedependence param- mated at early ages, which seems to have no biological
eter obtained nonparametrically with the unstructured meaning and is not observed with either the SAD or
antedependence model (UAD(1)) and with a quadratic unstructured model.
polynomial function with the structured antedependence Conversely, Figure 3 gives the estimated variance
model (SAD(1)). functions obtained with the different models, and they
all seem quite similar. As expected, the variances were
found to quite strongly increase with age (and BW).
It was found that both the chosen SAD and RR models
The SAD model chosen in this phenotypic study, were able to fit individual phenotypic curves well when
based on the BIC criterion, is a third-order antedepen- all the observations were available, even for irregular
dence model that can be written for any animal i at age patterns. The main difficulty of the RR model seemed
t as follows: to be the prediction of missing observations at early
ages (due to the poor estimation of the correlation func-
yit = 1tyi(t 1) + 2tyi(t 2) + 3yi(t 3) + eit [7] tion at these ages). Figure 4 shows, for example, the
interpolations obtained with the different models for
where the antedependence parameters and innovation an animal missing values at ages 112 and 224 d. Both
variances were modeled as follows: the SAD and the unstructured model predicted the
same values, whereas the RR model predicted lower
1t = 1.72 0.32 t + 0.02 t2, 2t = BW values (the difference was approximately equal to
0.07 + 0.04 t, 3 = 0.11 and 20 kg at age 112 d). The accuracy of the covariance
structure is therefore particularly important for dealing
Var(eit) = exp(3.60 + 0.85 t 0.05 t2)
with missing values.
To check the interpolation abilities of both models at
The 10 different ages considered here were coded as t = early ages, observations at age 112 d were deleted from
1, ..., 10. the data for all the animals born since 1995, which
The choice of these polynomial functions to model the represented 220 animals and approximately 40% of the
antedependence parameters was based on a prelimi- population analyzed. To compare the predictions ob-
nary analysis using a first-order unstructured antede-
tained with the SAD and RR models to the actual BW
pendence model. Figure 1 presents the nonparametric
values at age 112 d for these animals, the Vonesh con-
estimates for the 1t antedependence parameter using
cordance coefficient (rc) was used (Vonesh et al., 1996)
the first-order unstructured antedependence model and
with the following formula:
estimates obtained with a first-order SAD model using a
quadratic polynomial. It can be seen that the quadratic
i=1 (yi yi)2
M
function is appropriate to model this first antedepen-
dence parameter. rc = 1 [8]
i=1 (yi y)2 + i=1 (yi y)2 + M(y y)2
M M
As pointed out in the Materials and Methods section,
it might also be possible in other practical examples to
use nonlinear functions, such as exponential functions where M is the number of animals with deleted values
that have asymptotes. Estimation of these nonlinear (here M = 220), yi represents the actual observation for
Genetic analysis of growth curves 3469

Figure 2. Estimated phenotypic correlation functions obtained with the unstructured (US) model and the structured
antedependent (SAD) and random regression (RR) models chosen according to the Bayesian information criterion
(BIC) values given in Table 1.

animal i at age 112 d, yi is the predicted value obtained sical growth curve. In this particular example, the phe-
either with the SAD or RR model, and y and y are the notypic prediction obtained with the RR model was de-
averages of the observed and predicted values, respec- creasing, whereas the BW for this animal would be
tively. This rc coefficient has values between 1 and 1, expected to remain stable, as predicted by the SAD
with a perfect fit at 1 and a lack of fit for negative values. model, or to keep increasing slightly, as actually ob-
When calculating this coefficient for the interpolation served.
of the 40% missing values at age 112 d, it was found
that the prediction ability was much better with the Genetic Analysis
SAD than with the RR model. In fact, the concordance
coefficient was found to be equal to 0.83 for the SAD Model comparison results for the genetic analysis are
model for the predicted vs. actual observed BW values, presented in Table 2. As for the phenotypic analysis, it
and was 0.44 for the RR model. was found that the simplest first-order SAD model, with
The differences in the interpolation abilities were less a constant antedependence parameter, had a higher
important for other ages; for example, rc = 0.69 at 224 likelihood value than a cubic RR model, while requiring
d of age for the SAD model compared with 0.58 for the far fewer parameters for the covariance structure (eight
RR model, or rc = 0.74 at 540 d of age for the SAD model instead of 21 for the RR model). The best-fitting SAD
compared with 0.70 for the RR model. model regarding the likelihood value and the BIC crite-
Finally, the rc coefficient was equal to 0.74 with the rion was a second-order antedependence, with a qua-
SAD model compared with 0.69 with the RR model dratic first-order antedependence parameter, a con-
for the latest age (1,980 d), showing a slightly better stant second-order antedependence parameter, and
extrapolation ability of the SAD model. Figure 5 illus- quadratic innovation variances for both the genetic and
trates this prediction ability for an animal with a clas- environmental parts.
3470 Jaffrezic et al.

Figure 3. Estimated phenotypic variance functions ob-


tained with the unstructured (US) model and the struc- Figure 5. Observed and extrapolated phenotypic
tured antedependent (SAD) and random regression (RR) growth curves obtained with the chosen structured ante-
models chosen according to the Bayesian information cri- dependent (SAD) and random regression (RR) models
terion (BIC) values given in Table 1. for an animal with observations for age greater than 1,620
d deleted.

For the genetic part, the chosen model was as follows with parameter estimates equal to 1t = 1.29 0.11 t +
(for any animal i, at age t): 0.01 t2, 2 = 0.34, and Var(et) = 15.8 + 33.8 t 1.1 t2.
For the environmental part, the chosen model was
yit = 1t yi(t 1) + 2 yi(t 2) + eit [9] as follows:

yit = 1t yi(t 1) + 2 yi(t 2) + eit [10]

where 1t = 1.50 0.24 t + 0.01 t2, 2 = 0.05, and


Var(eit) = 157.4 + 174.4 t 3.5 t2.
Figure 6 shows the estimated genetic correlations
obtained with this SAD model and the cubic RR model.

Table 2. Likelihood values (Log L) and Bayesian informa-


tion criterion (BIC) for the genetic analysis
Modela Parametersb Log L BIC

SAD2 quad-constc 14 1,871.9 1,811.7


SAD2 const 10 1,635.7 1,592.7
SAD12 const 9 1,595.6 1,556.9
SAD1 const 8 1,588.7 1,554.3
SAD13 const 10 1,596.0 1,553.0
RR cubicd 21 1,120.4 1,030.0
RR quad 13 815.0 759.1
RR linear 7 470.2 440.1
a
The same model was used for both the genetic and environmental
parts.
b
Parameters = number of covariance parameters in the model.
Figure 4. Phenotypic interpolated growth curves ob- c
SAD2 quad-const corresponds to a second-order structured antede-
tained with the unstructured (US) model and the struc- pendence model with quadratic (quad) first-order antedependence
tured antedependent (SAD) and random regression (RR) parameter and constant (const) second order.
d
RR cubic corresponds to random regression model based on polyno-
models chosen as in Figures 2 and 3, for an animal with mial of order three (cubic) for both the genetic and environmental
missing observations at ages 112 and 224 d. parts.
Genetic analysis of growth curves 3471

Figure 6. Estimated genetic correlation functions ob- Figure 7. Estimated environmental correlation func-
tained with the structured antedependent (SAD) and ran-
tions obtained with the structured antedependent (SAD)
dom regression (RR) models chosen according to the and random regression (RR) models chosen according to
Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values given in Ta- the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values given in
ble 2. Table 2.

The patterns were quite similar, although a more im-


portant drop was observed for the RR model at early ages. Due to the very large number of parameters to
ages. These genetic correlations were equal to more be estimated, the completely unstructured model (with
than 0.95 at late ages and approximately 0.4 at early 110 parameters) did not properly reach convergence in
ages. On the other hand, for the environmental correla- this genetic study, and therefore no reference model
tions the same drawback was observed for the RR model is available.
as in the phenotypic analysis. In fact, as shown in Fig- Figure 8 gives the estimation of the heritability over
ure 7, the correlations even became negative at very age for the chosen SAD model. The pattern is character-
early ages, although there seems to be no biological istic of heritability estimates found in the literature.
reason for this. As expected, the environmental correla- In a review of univariate estimates of heritability coef-
tions obtained with both methods were found to be ficients, Koots et al. (1994) computed average values of
much lower than the genetic ones. They ranged from 0.35, 0.27, 0.35, and 0.50 for birth weight, weaning
about 0.1 for most ages, to around 0.6 for a few adjacent weight, yearling weight, and adult cow weight, respec-
3472 Jaffrezic et al.

random regression models. It was found in the pheno-


typic study that even the simplest first-order SAD
model (with only four parameters) provided a better fit
(higher likelihood value) than a fourth-order RR model
(with 16 parameters). Similar results were obtained in
the genetic study where a simple first-order SAD model,
for both the genetic and environmental parts (with
eight parameters), provided a better fit than a cubic
RR model (with 21 parameters).
The chosen SAD and RR models proved able to fit
individual phenotypic curves very well, when all the
observations were available. Differences were noted be-
tween the two methodologies for interpolating the miss-
ing values. Due to the poor estimation of the correlation
structure obtained with the RR models, they generally
predicted the missing values less accurately than the
SAD models.
To further improve the modeling of the covariance
structure, it would also be possible to model variance
Figure 8. Estimated heritability functions over age ob- heterogeneity due to other environmental factors, as
tained with the chosen structured antedependent (SAD) proposed by Foulley and Quaas (1995), and Robert-
and random regression (RR) models, as presented in Ta- Granie et al. (2002) for simple RR models. This is
ble 2. straightforward in the SAD models, as a structural
model is already used to model the changes of the inno-
vation variances over time. Extension of this heteroge-
neous model can also be applied to the antedependence
tively. A similar pattern was obtained by Bullock et al. parameters, to correct, for example, for preferential
(1993) with field data records of Polled Hereford cows: treatments influencing the growth rate of some
0.49, 0.24, 0.30, and 0.52, respectively. In two studies animals.
of growth curves up to 2 yr of age, Meyer (2002, 2004) A multivariate extension of the SAD models has been
also obtained a similar pattern for heritability coeffi- presented by Jaffrezic et al. (2003), which would allow
cient estimates, with RR models. In the current study, one to study, for example, the dependence between BW
heritability of birth and adult cow weights (0.54 and and feed intake, or any other time-dependent trait of
0.70) were among the highest estimates found in the economic interest.
literature. Figure 8 also presents the heritability esti-
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