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Overweight
Amazon.com AMZN, AMZN US
Price: $482.18
Strong 2Q on Accelerating Growth & Profit Upside; Price Target: $710.00
Reiterate Overweight & Raising PT to $710 Previous: $535.00
Amazon delivered another quarter of very strong results with accelerating FXN Internet
revenue growth of 27% and significant CSOI outperformance as margin of 4.6% Doug Anmuth
AC
was the highest in more than 4 years. The primary drivers of upside were Intl (1-212) 622-6571
EGM, AWS, and margins in both NA and Intl. We believe Amazon is now reaping douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com
the benefits of its recently heavy investments in Prime, category expansion, and Bloomberg JPMA ANMUTH <GO>
fulfillment centers while also being more selective on new investments. As shown in Dae K Lee
AMZNs better than expected 3Q guidance, the company has strong momentum (1-212) 622-5673
heading into the back half with Prime Day success and still favorable comps related to dae.k.lee@jpmorgan.com
Japan and AWS a year ago. Our '15/'16 revenue estimates increase by 2%, but our Diana R Kluger, CFA
(1-212) 622-4539
CSOI projections increase by 22% / 10%. We are establishing a Dec-16 price target of
diana.r.kluger@jpmorgan.com
$710 (up from $535 for Dec-15 prior) based on our SOP analysis which assumes 0.8x
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
2017E Retail GMV of $297B and 16x 2017E AWS EBITDA of $5.2B.
Price Performance
2Q upside across the board. Revenue of $23.2B increased 27% Y/Y FXN, ahead 500
of our $22.2B and consensus $22.4B, and above the high end of guidance. Top-line 450
400
outperformance came even with $1.4B of Y/Y FX headwinds, in-line with our $
350
estimate. Upside was driven by EGM acceleration in both NA and Int'l, which grew 300
32% and 31% FXN, respectively, and by AWS, which increased 81% Y/Y. CSOI of 250
$1,075M increased 166% Y/Y and was also 78% above our $604M projection. NA Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15
overall 800bps sequential increase in total Int'l FXN revenue growth was due to
Japans consumption tax impact in 2Q14. However, we believe Int'l markets are
also benefiting from increased Prime adoption as Prime members grew faster Int'l
than NA in 2014 and PIV is likely helping in the UK and Germany.
AWS strength. AWS revenue accelerated to 81% Y/Y in 2Q w/a CSOI margin of
21%. A favorable comp from the 2Q14 price cuts helped, but usage growth likely far
outpaces that of revenue, and importantly, we believe AMZN is less vulnerable to
competitive pricing actions.
Highest profit margin since 1Q11. CSOI margin of 4.6% was up ~250bps Y/Y as
gross margin expanded nearly 400bps. AMZN is benefiting from moving closer to
customers and being more selective w/investments, along with the ongoing mix-shift
toward AWS.
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Y/Y Grow th
Total Revenue 14.8% 19.9% 15.8%
Media Revenue -4.9% -2.7%
Electronics & General Merchandise Revenue 19.3% 23.6%
AWS 50.0% 81.5%
Other Revenue 14.7% 10.3%
Consoldated Segment Operating Income 49.5% 166.1%
GAAP EPS NA NA N/A
Adjusting Estimates
Figure 2: Adjusting J.P. Morgan Estimates
Am azon 3Q15 JPME 4Q15 JPME 2015 JPME 2016 JPME
($ in millions) Old Ne w Old Ne w Old New Old New
Net Reve nue 23,612 24,634 34,057 34,383 102,580 104,919 122,446 125,342
Y/Y Growth 14.7% 19.7% 16.1% 17.2% 15.3% 17.9% 19.4% 19.5%
% chg vs. old 4.3% 1.0% 2.3% 2.4%
Gros s Profit 7,124 8,032 10,248 10,934 31,372 34,312 39,394 41,473
Y/Y Growth 19.7% 34.9% 18.4% 26.3% 19.6% 30.8% 25.6% 20.9%
Margin (%) 30.2% 32.6% 30.1% 31.8% 30.6% 32.7% 32.2% 33.1%
% chg vs. old 12.7% 6.7% 9.4% 5.3%
GAAP EPS ($0.10) $0.01 $1.76 $1.54 $1.50 $1.63 $4.45 $4.41
Y/Y Growth NA NA 288.9% 240.7% NA NA 196.4% 170.2%
% chg vs. old NA -12.4% 8.6% -1.0%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
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Valuation
Overweight rating and Dec-16 PT of $710. Our Dec-16 price target of $710 is
based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis as we believe this methodology appropriately
attributes value to the companys large, fast-growing and surprisingly profitable
(from a CSOI perspective) AWS segment, which Amazon continues to invest in.
We apply a 0.8x multiple on 2017E North America & Int'l GMV of $297B, which
we believe is justified as large retailer peer WMT trades at ~0.6x 2017E GMV and as
Amazon has a meaningfully higher growth profile. We apply a 16x multiple on our
2017E AWS EBITDA of $5.2B, which is at a discount to other SaaS companies such
as Salesforce(currently trading at ~28x 2017E EBITDA). See the figure below for
our sum-of-the-parts analysis.
2017
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Operating expenses
Fulfillment 8,292,000 2,236,000 2,278,000 2,550,000 3,327,000 10,391,000 2,669,000 2,744,000 2,906,831 3,919,646 12,239,476 15,041,078
Marketing 3,046,000 843,000 911,000 961,000 1,492,000 4,207,000 1,048,000 1,100,000 1,157,805 1,822,291 5,128,097 5,640,404
Technology and content 5,961,000 1,822,000 2,020,000 2,219,000 2,409,000 8,470,000 2,521,000 2,701,000 2,882,196 3,094,457 11,198,654 13,662,313
General and administrative 979,000 283,000 328,000 358,000 391,000 1,360,000 378,000 405,000 395,245 443,021 1,621,266 1,819,068
Stock-based compensation 1,134,000 321,000 391,000 377,000 408,000 1,497,000 407,000 563,000 535,340 579,360 2,084,700 2,168,088
Amortization of other intangibles 114,000 35,000 28,000 31,000 39,000 133,000 44,000 48,000 44,020 55,380 191,400 199,056
Restructuring related and other - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total operating expenses 19,526,000 5,540,000 5,956,000 6,496,000 8,066,000 26,058,000 7,067,000 7,561,000 7,921,437 9,914,155 32,463,593 38,530,008
Operating income 745,000 146,000 (15,000) (544,000) 591,000 178,000 255,000 464,000 110,241 1,019,530 1,848,771 2,943,443
PF Operating income (CSOI) 1,993,000 502,000 404,000 (136,000) 1,038,000 1,808,000 706,000 1,075,000 689,601 1,654,270 4,124,871 5,310,587
Interest income 38,000 11,000 11,000 9,000 8,000 39,000 11,000 12,000 17,887 21,969 62,857 121,260
Interest expense (141,000) (42,000) (45,000) (49,000) (74,000) (210,000) (115,000) (114,000) (113,438) (113,438) (455,875) (412,500)
Other income, net (136,000) 5,000 22,000 (50,000) (96,000) (119,000) (130,000) - - - (130,000) -
Total non-operating expenses, net
(239,000) (26,000) (12,000) (90,000) (162,000) (290,000) (234,000) (102,000) (95,550) (91,468) (523,018) (291,240)
Non-recurring items:
Stock-based compensation 1,134,000 321,000 391,000 377,000 408,000 1,497,000 407,000 563,000 535,340 579,360 2,084,700 2,168,088
Amortization of other intangibles 114,000 35,000 28,000 31,000 39,000 133,000 44,000 48,000 44,020 55,380 191,400 199,056
Restructuring related and other - - - - - - - - - - - -
Remeasurement of 6.875% PEACS, other- - - - - - - - - - - -
Equity in losses of equity-method investees,
71,000net (61,000) 5,000 8,000 10,000 (38,000) 7,000 4,000 7,200 9,000 27,200 24,480
Cum. Effect of change in acctg/Other one-tim
- e items - - - - - - - - - - -
PF Net income (loss) 1,592,000 403,000 298,000 (21,000) 671,000 1,351,000 401,000 707,000 592,552 1,378,990 3,079,542 4,493,803
PF basic income (loss) per share $3.48 $0.88 $0.65 ($0.05) $1.45 $2.91 $0.86 $1.51 $1.27 $2.95 $6.59 $9.60
PF diluted income (loss) per share $3.41 $0.86 $0.65 ($0.05) $1.42 $2.86 $0.86 $1.49 $1.24 $2.90 $6.47 $9.42
PF diluted fully-taxed EPS (normalized) $2.44 $0.66 $0.55 ($0.32) $1.21 $2.09 $0.66 $1.33 $0.81 $2.13 $4.92 $6.84
PF diluted EPS un-taxed (equivalent to pre-2005
$3.76 PF #) $1.02 $0.85 -$0.49 $1.86 $3.22 $1.02 $2.04 $1.25 $3.28 $7.57 $10.52
Basic shares outstanding 458,000 460,000 461,000 463,000 464,000 464,000 465,000 467,000 467,000 467,000 467,000 468,000
Diluted shares outstanding 467,000 468,000 461,000 463,000 472,000 472,000 465,000 476,000 476,000 476,000 476,000 477,000
EBITDA Reconciliation
PF Operating income (CSOI) 1,993,000 502,000 404,000 (136,000) 1,038,000 1,808,000 706,000 1,075,000 689,601 1,654,270 4,124,871 5,310,587
Depreciation and other amortization3,253,000 1,010,000 1,109,000 1,247,000 1,379,000 4,745,000 1,426,000 1,504,000 1,478,800 1,449,301 5,858,101 5,258,558
EBITDA 5,246,000 1,512,000 1,513,000 1,111,000 2,417,000 6,553,000 2,132,000 2,579,000 2,168,401 3,103,571 9,982,972 10,569,145
2013A 3/14A 6/14A 9/14A 12/14A 2014A 3/15A 6/15A 9/15E 12/15E 2015E 2016E
Y/Y Grow th
Net sales 21.9% 22.8% 23.2% 20.4% 14.6% 19.5% 15.1% 19.9% 19.7% 17.2% 17.9% 19.5%
Net sales (excluding FX impact) 24.0% 22.9% 21.4% 20.2% 18.1% 20.3% 21.6% 27.0% 26.2% 20.6% 23.5% 19.5%
Cost of sales 17.9% 19.1% 19.5% 18.3% 9.9% 15.8% 9.5% 13.1% 13.5% 13.4% 12.5% 18.8%
Gross profit 34.0% 33.2% 32.2% 25.9% 27.7% 29.4% 28.8% 35.1% 34.9% 26.3% 30.8% 20.9%
Fulfillment 33.6% 28.9% 29.7% 29.8% 17.3% 25.3% 19.4% 20.5% 14.0% 17.8% 17.8% 22.9%
Marketing 29.8% 36.9% 39.9% 43.2% 34.7% 38.1% 24.3% 20.7% 20.5% 22.1% 21.9% 10.0%
Technology and content 44.3% 44.3% 41.2% 40.4% 42.8% 42.1% 38.4% 33.7% 29.9% 28.5% 32.2% 22.0%
General and administrative 26.8% 32.2% 32.3% 46.7% 43.2% 38.9% 33.6% 23.5% 10.4% 13.3% 19.2% 12.2%
Total cash operating expenses 35.8% 35.4% 35.5% 36.5% 29.0% 33.6% 27.6% 25.5% 20.6% 21.8% 23.6% 19.8%
Operating income 10.2% -19.3% -119.0% N/A 15.9% -76.1% 74.7% -3193.3% -120.3% 72.5% 938.6% 59.2%
PF Operating income 19.5% 13.8% -1.2% -150.9% 18.5% -9.3% 40.6% 166.1% -607.1% 59.4% 128.1% 28.7%
GAAP Net income -779.1% 31.7% NA N/A -10.5% -188.3% -152.8% NA -101.4% 243.6% -422.1% 170.8%
PF Net income 43.7% 12.3% -10.8% -108.0% 5.2% -15.1% -0.5% 137.2% -2921.7% 105.5% 127.9% 45.9%
GAAP EPS -770.4% 30.3% 1680.5% N/A -11.4% -187.3% -153.1% -170.7% -101.3% 240.7% -419.4% 170.2%
PF EPS 41.9% 11.1% -11.7% -107.9% 4.1% -16.0% 0.1% 129.8% -2844.6% 103.8% 126.0% 45.6%
PF diluted FT EPS (normalized) 12.7% 38.1% 11.7% -189.6% 6.1% -14.4% -0.2% 140.4% -355.7% 76.9% 135.3% 39.1%
EBITDA 37.1% 32.5% 29.9% 0.9% 31.4% 24.9% 41.0% 70.5% 95.2% 28.4% 52.3% 5.9%
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International
Media 2,642,000 2,380,000 2,510,000 3,406,000 10,938,000 2,320,000 2,094,000 2,151,924 3,192,470 9,758,394 9,953,562
% change 10.1% 7.0% 3.5% -8.3% 1.6% -12.2% -12.0% -14.3% -6.3% -10.8% 2.0%
% change, ex-FX impact 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% -1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.0%
Electronics and other general merchandise 5,188,000 4,912,000 5,160,000 7,109,000 22,369,000 5,378,000 5,425,000 5,610,675 7,765,216 24,178,892 28,772,881
% change 22.4% 24.8% 19.5% 9.8% 17.9% 3.7% 10.4% 8.7% 9.2% 8.1% 19.0%
% change, ex-FX impact 26.0% 20.0% 19.0% 19.0% 20.8% 21.0% 31.0% 26.0% 18.5% 23.6% 19.0%
Other 53,000 49,000 41,000 60,000 203,000 47,000 46,000 35,278 56,072 184,349 189,880
% change 10.3% 58.5% -21.7% -13.8% -11.3% -6.1% -14.0% -6.5% -9.2% 3.0%
% change, ex-FX impact 11.0% -1.0% -19.0% 11.0% 2.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 4.1% 3.0%
Total International Sales 7,883,000 7,341,000 7,711,000 10,575,000 33,510,000 7,745,000 7,565,000 7,797,877 11,013,758 34,121,635 38,916,323
% change 17.9% 18.6% 13.5% 3.1% 11.9% -1.8% 3.1% 1.1% 4.1% 1.8% 14.1%
% change, ex-FX impact 18.0% 14.1% 13.0% 11.7% 13.9% 14.5% 21.8% 18.4% 13.4% 16.6% 14.1%
AWS
Total 1,050,000 1,005,000 1,169,000 1,420,000 4,644,000 1,566,000 1,824,000 2,045,750 2,343,000 7,778,750 10,734,675
% change 69.0% 43.0% 42.9% 47.0% 49.1% 81.5% 75.0% 65.0% 67.5% 38.0%
% change, ex-FX impact 69.0% 43.0% 42.9% 47.0% 49.0% 81.0% 75.0% 65.0% 38.0%
Total Consolidated Sales 4.0% 0
Media 5,467,000 4,844,000 5,244,000 6,950,000 22,505,000 5,289,000 4,714,000 5,049,964 6,878,230 21,931,194 22,674,138
% change 11.6% 10.5% 4.3% -3.8% 4.5% -3.3% -2.7% -3.7% -1.0% -2.5% 3.4%
% change, ex-FX impact 8.0% 9.0% 4.0% 0.0% 4.7% 3.6% 4.7% 4.6% 3.5% 4.0% 3.4%
Electronics and other general merchandise 13,017,000 13,278,000 13,953,000 20,638,000 60,886,000 15,628,000 16,412,000 17,305,365 24,811,756 74,157,122 90,745,886
% change 25.7% 27.4% 26.5% 20.7% 24.5% 20.1% 23.6% 24.0% 20.2% 21.8% 22.4%
% change, ex-FX impact 27.0% 26.0% 26.0% 24.0% 25.6% 27.0% 31.2% 30.4% 23.4% 27.5% 22.4%
AWS 1,050,000 1,005,000 1,169,000 1,420,000 4,644,000 1,566,000 1,824,000 2,045,750 2,343,000 7,778,750 10,734,675
% change 69.0% 43.0% 42.9% 47.0% 49.4% 49.1% 81.5% 75.0% 65.0% 67.5% 38.0%
% change, ex-FX impact 49.0% 81.0% 75.0% 65.0% 0.0% 38.0%
Other 207,000 213,000 213,000 320,000 953,000 234,000 235,000 233,078 349,872 1,051,949 1,187,620
% change 7.6% 10.1% -1.8% 6.0% 5.4% 13.0% 10.3% 9.4% 9.3% 10.4% 12.9%
% change, ex-FX impact 58.0% 36.0% 37.0% 41.0% 42.6% 16.5% 13.6% 12.9% 11.1% 13.2% 12.9%
Total Consolidated Sales 19,741,000 19,340,000 20,579,000 29,328,000 88,988,000 22,717,000 23,185,000 24,634,157 34,382,858 104,919,015 125,342,319
% change Y/Y 22.8% 23.2% 20.4% 14.6% 19.5% 15.1% 19.9% 19.7% 17.2% 17.9% 19.5%
% change Q/Q -22.8% -2.0% 6.4% 42.5% -22.5% 2.1% 6.3% 39.6%
% change, ex-FX impact 22.9% 21.4% 20.2% 18.1% 20.3% 21.6% 27.0% 26.2% 20.6% 23.5% 19.5%
GROSS PROFIT
North America 2,702,000 2,748,500 2,924,750 4,333,250 12,708,500 3,619,620 3,862,880 3,919,490 5,782,178 17,184,168 20,815,113
% change 23% 34% 41% 34% 33% 35% 21%
% margin 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 27.0% 28.0% 26.5% 27.5% 27.3% 27.5%
International 1,934,000 2,187,500 1,858,250 2,903,750 8,883,500 2,136,380 2,338,120 2,066,437 2,808,508 9,349,446 9,923,662
% change 30% 10% 7% 11% -3% 5% 6%
% margin 24.5% 29.8% 24.1% 27.5% 26.5% 27.6% 30.9% 26.5% 25.5% 27.4% 25.5%
% change ex-FX 33% 32% 29% 35% 7% 24% 6%
AWS 1,050,000 1,005,000 1,169,000 1,420,000 4,644,000 1,566,000 1,824,000 2,045,750 2,343,000 7,778,750 10,734,675
% change
% margin 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
% change ex-FX
Total Consolidated 5,686,000 5,941,000 5,952,000 8,657,000 26,236,000 7,322,000 8,025,000 8,031,678 10,933,686 34,312,364 41,473,451
% change 33% 32% 26% 28% 53% 29% 35% 35% 26% 31% 21%
% margin 28.8% 30.7% 28.9% 29.5% 29.5% 32.2% 34.6% 32.6% 31.8% 32.7% 33.1%
% change ex-FX 33% 30% 26% 32% 54% 36% 43% 42% 30% 37% 21%
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HONG KONG, TH
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