September 11, 2017

Media Contact: Peter Hall

emersonpoll@emerson.edu
617-824-8737

Emerson College Poll: Moore with Significant Lead Over Strange for GOP US Senate
Nomination in Alabama. Democrat Doug Jones in statistical tie with both Republicans for
General Election.

A new Emerson Poll finds Alabama incumbent Senator Luther Strange trailing former Judge
Roy Moore by 14 percentage points with about two weeks until the Special Election on
September 26. Moore polled at 40% while Strange was at 26%. Thirty-four percent (34%) of
voters were undecided, and the survey had a margin of error of 5.2 percentage points.

Voters in Alabama gave President Trump a 52% job approval and 36% disapproval, but that
popularity has not transferred to his endorsed candidate Strange, as voters who approve of the
President are breaking for Moore 51% to 32%.

Supporters of Republican Congressman Mo Brooks who grabbed 20% in the GOP primary in
August appear to be splitting their vote between Moore and Strange, with about 1/3rd breaking
for each candidates and the last third undecided.

Regardless of who wins the divisive GOP nomination it appears Democrat Doug Jones will start
in a competitive position for the General election as he trails Strange 40% to 43%, and Moore
40% to 44%, well within the polls 4.8% margin of error.

The GOP primary may have left supporters of both candidates unwilling at this time to support
their party rival. Of those voting for Moore in the primary, 25% said they will vote for Jones and
49% said they would vote for Strange in the General. Similarly, Strange supporters found 31%
voting for Jones and 34% voting for Moore. The GOP will need to find a way to unite during the
11 weeks until the General Election, or face the prospect of Jones pulling off an upset. If Jones
were to win, Alabama could send their first Democrat to the US Senate in over 20 years.

The Emerson College Polling Society, under the supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball
presents these findings based on a poll of Likely Voters in Alabama, for the Republican Special
Election September 26, 2017 and of all likely voters for the December 12 General Election. All
respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample using an area
probabilistic sample of registered voters from Aristotle International. The overall sample size
was N= 416 with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points in 19 of 20 cases. In the
Republican Primary the sample was n= 355 with a MOE of +/- 5.2 percentage points. It is
important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party breakdowns carry with them
higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive
Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and was conducted September 8-9, 2017.
This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample
from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation
and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted to recent Census and
voting behavior data using a sample balancing procedure to match the demographic makeup with
age and gender. Margins of sampling error for this survey are not adjusted for design effect.

Emerson College Polling Weekly is the official podcast for the Emerson College poll. The
podcast is available on iTunes, Stitcher and the CLNS Media Mobile App. Visit our website
at www.emersoncollegepollingsociety.com and follow us on Twitter @EmersonPolling.

Alabama Survey Instrument

1. Are you currently registered to vote with a political party?

Frequenc Valid Cumulativ
y Percent Percent e Percent
Vali Democrat 135 32.5 32.5 32.5
d
Republica
214 51.4 51.4 84.0
n
Ind/Other 61 14.7 14.7 98.7
NR 6 1.3 1.3 100.0
Total 416 100.0 100.0

2. Do you approve or disapprove of President Trumps performance in office?

Frequenc Valid Cumulativ
y Percent Percent e Percent
Vali Approve 214 51.5 51.5 51.5
d
Disapprov
151 36.4 36.4 87.9
e
No
32 7.8 7.8 95.7
Opinion
Unsure 18 4.3 4.3 100.0
Total 416 100.0 100.0

3. How likely are you to vote in Alabamas Republican Primary special election on
September 26, to fill the U.S. Senate seat?
Frequenc Valid Cumulativ
y Percent Percent e Percent
Valid Already Voted 85 20.5 23.7 23.7
Likely Voter 234 56.2 64.8 88.5
Somewhat Likely 42 10.0 11.5 100.0
Total 361 86.7 100.0
Missing System 55 13.3
Total 416 100.0
 4. If the September 26 Republican primary special election to fill the U.S. Senate seat was
held today, who would you vote for?
Frequenc Valid Cumulativ
y Percent Percent e Percent
Valid Moore 142 34.1 40.0 40.0
Strange 92 22.2 26.0 66.0
Undecide
121 29.1 34.0 100.0
d
Total 355 85.4 100.0
Missing System 61 14.6
Total 416 100.0

5. Who did you vote for in the August 15th special primary election to fill the U.S. Senate
seat- Press 0 if you did not vote and press star at any time to repeat answer choices.*
Valid
Frequency Percent Percent Cumulative Percent
Valid Someone else/did not vote
148 35.5 41.5 41.5

Strange 69 16.5 19.3 60.8

Moore 98 23.6 27.6 88.4
Brooks 41 9.9 11.6 100.0
Total 355 85.4 100.0
Missing System 61 14.6
Total 416 100.0

6. How likely are you to vote in Alabamas special General election on December 12 to fill
the U.S. Senate seat?
Frequenc Valid Cumulativ
y Percent Percent e Percent
Valid VL 347 83.4 83.4 83.4
SWL 39 9.4 9.4 92.8
50/50 30 7.2 7.2 100.0
Total 416 100.0 100.0

7. If the General Election for US Senate was held today and the candidates were Democrat
Doug Jones and Republican Luther Strange, who would you vote for?
Frequenc Valid Cumulativ
y Percent Percent e Percent
Valid Jones 165 39.6 39.6 39.6
Strange 179 43.1 43.1 82.7
Undecided 72 17.3 17.3 100.0
Total 416 100.0 100.0
 8. If the General Election for US Senate was held today and the candidates were Democrat
Doug Jones and Republican Roy Moore, who would you vote for?
Frequenc Valid Cumulativ
y Percent Percent e Percent
Vali Jones 166 39.9 39.9 39.9
d
Moore 181 43.5 43.5 83.5
Undecide
69 16.5 16.5 100.0
d
Total 416 100.0 100.0

9. What is your gender?

Frequenc Valid Cumulativ
y Percent Percent e Percent
Valid male 191 46.0 46.0 46.0
female 225 54.0 54.0 100.0
Total 416 100.0 100.0

10. What is your ethnicity?

Frequenc Valid Cumulativ
y Percent Percent e Percent
Vali white 290 69.6 69.6 69.6
d
black/ AA 91 22.0 22.0 91.6
Hispanic 4 1.0 1.0 92.6
Other/Mor
31 7.4 7.4 100.0
e than one
Total 416 100.0 100.0

11. What is your age range?

Frequenc Valid Cumulativ
y Percent Percent e Percent
Valid 18-54 146 35.0 35.0 35.0
55-74 165 39.6 39.6 74.6
75+ 106 25.4 25.4 100.0
Total 416 100.0 100.0
 District

Frequenc Valid Cumulativ

y Percent Percent e Percent
Valid 1.00 57 13.6 13.6 13.6
2.00 80 19.2 19.2 32.8
3.00 75 17.9 17.9 50.7
4.00 60 14.4 14.4 65.1
5.00 48 11.7 11.7 76.7
6.00 49 11.8 11.8 88.6
7.00 48 11.4 11.4 100.0
Total 416 100.0 100.0