Professional Documents
Culture Documents
34
Developing
an Earthquake
Mitigation Program
34.1 Introduction
34.2 Overview of an Earthquake Mitigation Program
34.3 Phase 0: Pre-Program Activities
34.4 Phase 1: Assessing the Problem
34.5 Phase 2: Developing the Program
34.6 Phase 3: Implementing the Program
Retaining Seismic Retrofit Design Professionals Funding the
Program Coordinating with Other Parts of the Organization
Perform Seismic Retrofit Dealing with Residual Risk
34.7 Maintaining the Program
Charles Scawthorn Defining Terms
Consulting Engineer References
Berkeley, CA Further Reading
When schemes are laid in advance, it is surprising how often the circumstances fit in with them.
Sir William Osler (18491919)
34.1 Introduction
Previous chapters of this volume have discussed the effects of earthquake and the potential resulting
damage. This chapter provides guidance on how to go about developing and implementing an earthquake
risk reduction program to reduce that potential damage that is, this chapter discusses developing an
earthquake mitigation program. An earthquake mitigation program has five basic aspects:
1. Pre-program activities
2. Assessing the risk
3. Developing the program
4. Implementing the program
5. Maintaining the program
The next section first provides an overview of these aspects, and is then followed by sections providing
a detailed discussion of each aspect.
Factors
- Seismic environment?
Pre-program - Organization / decision-making
- Responsibility / liability
Data
- Seismic hazard
Assess the Risk - Exposure
- life
- property
- business / function
- revenue
Y - data
Stop Acceptable? - market share
- reputation / image
- Vulnerability
N - Assessment
Mitigation Options
Develop the Program - Locational
- Redundancy / backup
- Move
- Structural
- Strengthen structures
- Brace equipment / furnishings
- Operational
Acceptable? - Emergency Plan
N - Backup data
- Transfer
- Insurance
Y - Contracts
specific region. More detailed information can then be obtained from references cited in those chapters,
as well as from expert sources, such as the U.S. Geological Survey or various seismological observatories.
If earthquakes appear to have some potential for occurrence, the next issue is obtaining the authori-
zation for assessing the risk they may pose to the organization. Depending on the organization and its
decision-making, several arguments may be needed to authorize the expenditure involved in a seismic
risk assessment. These arguments typically fall into the following categories:
Ethical this is often the first argument to occur to a proponent of a seismic risk assessment. It
typically takes the form of, it is the organizations responsibility to assess its earthquakes risk, to
be sure it is protecting life and property. This argument may sometimes be sufficient, but often
it is not, and it fails not because decision-makers are unethical, but rather because the argument
is insubstantial in itself. That is, logically, for this argument to prevail, it is then true that it is the
organizations responsibility to assess ALL risks, to be sure. Organizations cannot be risk-free,
and decision-makers are painfully aware of the limited resources they have available to deal with
quite real, significant risks, whether those risks are hurricanes, worker safety, foreign exchange,
competition, or others. Therefore, the argument needs to be accompanied by sufficient facts and
initial analysis to substantiate that some ethical risk exists the proponent must do some
homework.
Good business also known as enlightened self-interest, this is often the most effective argument.
A bit of homework, consisting of assembling some facts on (1) earthquake history of the region;
(2) how other organizations may have been affected in past earthquakes (see Chapter 1, this
volume) or even other disasters, such as hurricanes, floods, or fires; and (3) the approximate
exposure the organization has in the event of a structural collapse, loss of IT data, or other possible
event, can go a very long way toward convincing a CEO that it is worth looking into the matter
a bit further. Thus, the basis for a seismic risk assessment should be that it can be cost-effective,
reduce potential losses greatly should an earthquake occur, and possibly reduce current insurance
and other costs.
Liability In the United States and many other countries today, an ignorance-of-risk defense is
highly questionable, and this should be brought to the attention of decision-makers in a tactful
manner. Decision-makers are responsible for protecting the welfare of their organizations and the
public today, and are expected to understand the extent of this risk and to deal with it in a
responsible manner. Questions such as, Are you prepared? are valid, and not inappropriate
(Figure 34.2). After a disaster occurs, decision-makers are often held responsible for having made
the wrong decision, especially if losses are seen as unacceptably high and all stakeholders were not
involved in the decision process. Steps to understand the risk and share the information with the
affected stakeholders can help to minimize post-event backlash, even if no action to mitigate is
ultimately taken. Once disclosure is made, the stakeholders can either accept the risk or make it
known that the risk must be addressed. In either event, the decision-maker who actively addresses
earthquake risk and involves all stakeholders is better off than one who does not.
Feasible Part of any argument for a seismic risk assessment should be that mitigation is feasible.
Decision-makers may believe they need to greatly mitigate or even totally eliminate risks once
they are discovered, relating this to issues of potential liability. Therefore, some decision-makers
may prefer to adopt an ignorance is bliss approach to risk management, avoid having positive
knowledge of a risk, and believe they have limited potential liability as a result. They believe that
if an earthquake causes a building to collapse, it will be considered an act of God for which they
will have no liability, particularly if no prior positive identification of the risk was available.
Opposing this is that it is often possible to obtain incremental reduction in risk by performing
limited mitigation as part of other programs. For example, if an existing building is going to be
expanded, seismic upgrade of the building can probably be accomplished concurrently, at little
additional cost. Similarly, if a major asbestos reduction program is going to be pursued, it may
be possible at very little additional expenditure to perform concurrent seismic upgrades. Until the
extent of seismic risk is understood and priorities set for mitigating this risk, the opportunities
to embark on such incremental and cost-effective programs cannot be identified.
Making the above arguments is not sufficient in themselves. A decision-maker will also want to know
what the next steps are, if he or she wishes to proceed. We discuss this aspect next.
FIGURE 34.2 The cover and following page from Guide for Decision-Makers, prepared by the California Seismic
Safety Commission, asks, Californias Next Earthquake are you prepared? and states, The public will want to
know what you did to prepare. (Courtesy California Seismic Safety Commission)
the value of business or functional operations in a particular facility, and this may take a team effort
involving operations, the finance department, and perhaps others. Often, this aspect results in some
surprises, where a specific facility is found to be more critical than previously believed, due to its housing
high-value goods or operations. A classic example often encountered by the author is an organizations
data center, in which the equipment may be worth millions, and yet the building housing the data center
has a book value only a fraction of the value of the equipment it houses. In this regard, the data itself
may be priceless (e.g., it would cost tens of millions to replace, and would result in hundreds of millions
in lost revenues if it could not be replaced), and therefore organizations have learned to back up the data
offsite, and its value is less an issue.
Developing performance objectives should normally be straightforward. A first priority is no loss of
life, which normally translates into no significant collapse hazard, and dangerous processes should be
able to safely shut down. Following in priority is normally preservation of value, which usually means
limited property loss, no loss of essential equipment, and restoration of operations onsite, or at a backup
site, within a period of time appropriate for the organization.
These two aspects, identifying assets at risk and performance objectives, can be qualitatively assessed
using a technique developed by Saaty [1980] termed the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). At the core
of the AHP lies a method for converting subjective assessments of relative importance to a set of overall
scores or weights. It is a simple yet useful tool, and one of the more widely applied multi-criteria analysis
methods. The fundamental input to the AHP is the decision-makers answers to a series of questions of
Occupants
Buildings
Identify Assets at Risk Other Structures
Equipment
Infrastructure
Establish
Develop Performance Objective Operations
Seismic
Profits
Hazard
Market Share
Reputation
Buildings/Structures Equipment
Risk Screening
Is it OK Is it OK
Yes per MLEER Yes
Stop per FEMA- Stop
154? 99-0008?
No No
Detailed Review
Is it OK Is it OK
Yes Yes
Stop per FEMA- per Equipment Stop
310? Assessment?
No No
ALTERNATIVES
FIGURE 34.3 Earthquake risk assessment. (Courtesy California Seismic Safety Commission)
the general form, How important is criterion A relative to criterion B? These are termed pairwise
comparisons. Questions of this type may be used to establish, within AHP, both weights for criteria and
performance scores for options on the different criteria. In AHP, a very simple series of weights, such as:
Much more = 5
About the same = 3
Much less = 1
are applied in a matrix, such that off-diagonal terms are the complement of one another (i.e., if row 1
column 2 is much more = 5, then row 2 column 1 is much less = 1). A simple example suffices.
Suppose a company has the following facilities: headquarters, factory 1, factory 2, warehouse, and R&D
laboratory, and wishes to determine the relative value of these facilities on the basis of the number of
personnel, the value of building and contents, and the revenues that can be assigned to each facility. This
is a multi-criteria analysis (the criteria are lives, property, and revenues) problem. The first task is to
determine the relative importance of the criteria. This is done as shown in Table 34.1. In this table, life
is assigned a relative value much more than property, that is, a value of 5 (and, therefore, property is
much less, 1). The relative weights of the three criteria are thus:
Life = 10
Property = 4
Revenue = 4
The same technique is then applied to each of the facilities, for the facilitys respective values of life,
property, and revenue. For example, as shown in Table 34.2, headquarters contains 100 personnel, while
factory 1 contains 600, so that headquarters personnel are much less than factory 1 personnel, and
Criteria
TY
E
PER
ENU
PRO
LIFE
REV
SUM
0
1 LIFE 5 5 10
2 PROPERTY 1 3 4
3 REVENUE 1 3 4
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
much less than factory 2 personnel, much more than warehouse personnel, and about the same
as the R&D laboratory personnel (in numbers of personnel). The sum of the headquarters row is thus
10, which is multiplied by the weight assigned to life (which was 10), so that the life-weighted product
for headquarters is 100, for factory 1 is 180, and so on. This process is continued, and the final result is
shown in Table 34.3, where factory 2 is seen to be the most important facility (highest criteria-weighted
sum) and so on, to the least important facility (headquarters1).
Although it is somewhat arbitrary, the AHP is a useful tool for obtaining a relative ranking of facilities
during the risk assessment process.
Quantifying the hazard and developing seismic vulnerabilities are technical aspects that require the
expertise of specialist earth scientists, structural engineers, and related experts. Most organizations
utilize specialist consultants for this aspect who employ methods detailed in other chapters of this
volume. The methods can be highly quantified, although at a screening level of analysis such methods
may not be justified. It may simply suffice for facilities to be identified as being on good or poor
soils, from a seismic perspective, and the structures as being similarly good or poor. In the latter
case, a structural engineers review in identifying a continuous lateral-force-resisting system (LFRS) is
a powerful discriminant.
The result of an earthquake risk assessment task is a statement of the potential damage and losses that
can result under current conditions. An example is shown in Figure 34.4, which shows the findings for
a hypothetical arena that was judged to be a high collapse hazard. The result of the screening is typically
qualitative.
TABLE 34.2 AHP Relative Weights for Facilities, for Two Criteria
e
hous
1
2
ry
ry
Cr tt 1
Facto
Facto
Ware
R&D
HQ
LIFE SUM
0
1 HQ 100 1 1 5 3 10 100
2 Factory 1 600 5 3 5 5 18 180
3 Factory 2 900 5 3 5 5 18 180
4 Warehouse 25 1 1 1 3 6 60
5 R&D 50 3 1 1 3 8 80
6 0 0
7 0 0
ouse
y1
y2
h
r
Cr tt 2
Facto
Facto
Ware
R&D
HQ
PROPERTY SUM
0
1 HQ 100 1 1 3 1 6 24
2 Factory 1 600 5 1 5 3 14 56
3 Factory 2 2000 5 5 5 5 20 80
4 Warehouse 200 3 1 1 3 8 32
5 R&D 400 5 3 1 3 12 48
6 0 0 0
7 0 0 0
development of other mitigation measures, including the estimation of costs for the mitigation measures.
Since this is not a final design, the estimate of costs for structural strengthening or other mitigation
measures is necessarily approximate, and is often termed a rough order of magnitude (ROM) estimate
of costs. An example of a Phase 2 more detailed analysis is shown in Figure 34.5, which shows results of
a structural analysis of a San Francisco Fire Department fire station performed under the authors
direction, including a schematic of the structural retrofit scheme and a ROM cost estimate. All facilities
falling into categories I and II should be the subject of similar analyses, for structural retrofitting or
alternative mitigation measures, as appropriate.
Based on analyses such as indicated in Figure 34.5, all category I and category II facilities can be ranked
according to their risk, mitigation costs, or other criteria. Table 34.4 shows an example of a hypothetical
seismic risk assessment performed for a municipality. Strengthening cost based on a Phase 2 structural
analysis is indicated for each facility. Additionally, the facilities are ranked by their benefit-cost ratio
(explained below), and the cumulative costs are indicated. The cumulative cost column indicates in what
order a limited budget is best spent. In this example, if the organization (i.e., the city) has only $20 million,
then it is best spent not on the Fine Art Museum, but on the North Police Station, Fire Station 2, and
the Aquarium.
This ranking is based on a benefit-cost ratio, developed on the basis of a set of rules created for
assessing the benefits resulting from assured seismic functionality of each facility. Benefit is the loss
TABLE 34.3 Criteria-Weighted Sums and Final Ranking for Each Facility
Cr tt 1
Cr tt 2
Cr tt 3
Cr tt 4
Cr tt 5
Cr tt 6
Cr tt 7
Name of Facility
TY
E
PER
ENU
PRO
LIFE
REV
SUM RANK
0
1 HQ 100 24 16 140 5
2 Factory 1 80 56 56 292 2
3 Factory 2 180 80 80 340 1
4 Warehouse 60 32 56 148 4
5 R&D 80 48 32 160 3
6 0 0 0 0 0
7 0 0 0 0 0
avoided by mitigation, derived by investing the cost of mitigation. If a large loss can be avoided via a
small investment, the benefit-cost ratio is high, and the investment is a good investment. If the required
investment is large and only a small loss is avoided, then the mitigation action is not cost-beneficial
that is, it is not worth it. These rules can be as simple as assessing the cost of loss of functionality of the
facility as the rent that would have to be paid to provide the same space, if that facility is lost. In the
case of a fire station, the benefit should be this rent, plus perhaps some allowance for the fire department
not being able to function in the earthquake disaster that is, some allowance for losses due to fires
which the fire department cannot respond to (and also, perhaps, some allowance for lost lives, although
the latter are difficult to quantify). In the case of an art museum, some allowance might also be made
for damage to the high-value contents the works of art. While some works of art may be priceless
(even though they are bought and sold), a good proxy for the allowance would be the insurance premium
for the contents.
Thus, for each facility, the benefit is determined on a consistent basis, and that benefit divided by the
cost of mitigation. The facilities are then ranked by this ratio, as shown in Table 34.4. Such a ranking is
meant as a guide for decision-makers and should not be rigidly adhered to common sense may indicate
that a particular facility, although ranked low, may actually be more important than indicated. The true
meaning of this overriding of the ranking process is of course that the criteria employed in the process
did not truly reflect the actual, usually intuitive, criteria of the decision-maker.
The final decision as to what facilities to mitigate will depend on available budget or other resources
and is, ultimately, the final expression of the organizations acceptable risk. That is, the organization
must balance what it wishes against what it can afford. The final program, arrived at iteratively, expresses
what it can afford, and the allocation of resources is the indication of the risks the organization is willing
to incur. This is an important point, in that it is emphasized that the organizations acceptable risk cannot
be decided a priori it is arrived at in a give-and-take, once the potential losses, and the costs of reducing
those losses to various degrees, are known. Much time and effort are wasted in organizations at the
beginning of a risk reduction program, trying to decide what is their level of acceptable risk. Leave this
decision until the facts are known. Trying to determine acceptable risk early in the process can adversely
affect, even prematurely terminate, an earthquake risk reduction program.
FIGURE 34.5 Example Phase 2 seismic risk analysis, with rough order of magnitude (ROM) cost estimate. (Courtesy
EQE International)
structural load-carrying systems and to identify seismic performance issues related to configura-
tion and structural detailing.
2. Review available geotechnical reports for the site to determine a site class for use in developing
seismic hazards and to identify conditions that could lead to ground failure or other site instabil-
ities. Where site-specific soils data are not available, reference should be made to available gener-
alized geotechnical data, such as found on regional maps produced by the U.S. Geologic Survey
and the California Division of Mines and Geology. Reference should also be made to the seismic
safety element of local general plans.
3. Perform a seismic hazard for analysis for the site to identify the location of the site relative to
significant faults, and to estimate the probable intensity of ground acceleration as a function of
return period (or probability of exceedance).
4. Conduct a visual survey of the building to document the structures condition and to confirm
that available construction documents are representative of existing conditions. To the extent that
construction documents are unavailable, perform field investigation to develop sufficient infor-
mation to identify the vertical and lateral structural load-carrying systems, and to quantify their
strengths.
5. Perform a preliminary structural evaluation to quantify the probable performance of the building
structure to resist the effects of ground shaking having a 10% probability of exceedance in 50
years. (Note that either more or less probable levels of ground shaking may be specified, based on
the importance of individual facilities. For facilities located within a few miles of major active
faults, it may be more appropriate to specify that the evaluation be performed for a median estimate
of the ground shaking resulting from a characteristic earthquake on that fault.) The evaluation
should, as a minimum, conform to the requirements of FEMA-310 [Federal Emergency Manage-
ment Agency, 1998] for a tier 1 evaluation. Alternative evaluations that quantify the adequacy of
the seismic-force-resisting system considering strength, ductility, and configuration issues may be
used.
6. Develop an inventory of critical nonstructural components, including building utility equipment
(power supply, HVAC systems), operating equipment, ceilings, building fascia panels, elevators,
and fire protection systems. Identify the adequacy of installation of these nonstructural compo-
nents to resist damage.
7. Develop a preliminary opinion as to the probable performance of the facilities, in the event of the
designated earthquake ground motion (see item 5 above) using the performance levels contained
in FEMA-273 and FEMA-310 [Federal Emergency Management Agency, 1997, 1998].
8. Prepare a written report documenting the scope of study, the findings, and recommendations,
with written documentation of the evaluation process (FEMA-310 checklists, calculations, etc.)
included as appendices. If preliminary study indicates significant potential for earthquake-induced
ground failure and sufficient site-specific soils data are not available to conclusively assess this,
the report should include a recommendation for site-specific geotechnical investigation. If the
existing construction of the structure is not sufficiently well defined to permit quantification of
its structural characteristics, include recommendations for detailed field investigations to confirm
the construction.
34.6.1.2 Phase II: Detailed Investigation and Conceptual Retrofit Design
1. Review the phase I evaluation report and available construction documents for the facility to develop
an overall understanding of the buildings construction and its probable seismic performance.
2. Conduct a visual survey of the building to observe the building condition and note obvious
deviations from the available documentation. Observe potential opportunities for introduction
of seismic upgrade elements. Note sensitive areas of the building, such as historic spaces, traffic
corridors, etc. that may not be impacted by seismic upgrade measures.
3. Meet with the facility manager to discuss alternative performance criteria and to select an appro-
priate criterion, or set of criteria. Also discuss restrictions on placement of retrofit elements, relative
to building appearance and functionality concerns.
4. If recommended in the phase I evaluation, perform field investigation of the building to confirm
the details of its construction and material strengths.
5. If recommended in the phase I evaluation, obtain site-specific geotechnical data to evaluate
potential ground failure and associated mitigation measures.
6. Perform structural engineering calculations to quantify seismic deficiencies in the building relative
to the selected performance levels. As a minimum, the criteria of FEMA-310 for a tier 2 evaluation
should be performed. Alternatively, the performance analysis procedures contained in the Cali-
fornia Building Code, Division IIIR, in FEMA-273, or in the California Seismic Safety Commis-
sions SSC-9601 may be used.
7. Review alternative potential methods for seismic upgrade for each specified performance criterion,
to a level sufficient to confirm feasibility and to select a recommended approach. Meet with the
facility manager to review the alternatives and to agree on the appropriateness of the recommended
approach.
8. Develop conceptual-level upgrade designs for each specified performance criteria. Supporting
calculations shall be performed to a sufficient level of detail to confirm that the overall size and
scope of the recommendations are appropriate. The level of detail should be sufficient to permit
an ROM cost estimate to be performed. Consideration should be given to collateral upgrades
triggered by the seismic work, including disabled access, fire/life safety, and other code upgrades.
9. Prepare conceptual-level sketches showing recommended upgrades for nonstructural components.
10. Prepare preliminary cost estimates for the recommended seismic upgrade work, for each perfor-
mance criterion, together with required collateral upgrades.
11. Prepare a report indicating the scope of the study, the findings with regard to building deficiency
and performance, and the recommendations for alternative levels of upgrade, as well as any
recommendations for additional investigation to be performed as part of final design. Include
schematic drawings documenting the upgrade recommendations and cost estimating worksheets
in an appendix.
34.6.1.3 Phase III: Construction Documents and Construction Support
1. Assemble a complete design team, including project management, structural engineering, archi-
tecture, mechanical and electrical engineering, and cost estimating, as required to support the
development of construction documents.
2. Review all available documentation for the building as well as previous evaluation reports and
supporting calculations in order to develop an understanding of the building deficiencies and
recommended upgrade approach.
3. Meet with the building official as necessary to confirm the design criteria and proposed approach,
as well as to confirm the extent of required collateral upgrades.
4. Develop construction documents, including drawings and specifications, together with supporting
calculations, to implement the recommended structural upgrades, together with all required
collateral upgrades. Submit copies of construction documents to client for review, at the 40% and
90% stages of completion. Final construction documents shall be suitable for obtaining building
permits, competitive construction bids, and for executing the work.
5. Prepare an estimate of probable construction cost at each stage of document submittal and for
the final construction documents.
6. Provide support to client in the development of bid packages for construction contracts.
7. Respond to comments from plan checkers and revise construction documents as necessary to
obtain approval.
8. Respond to bidder requests for clarification.
9. Provide support to client in evaluation of construction contract bids for completeness and con-
sistency with the requirements of the construction documents.
10. Attend periodic meetings at the construction site, during the construction period, to coordinate
construction progress.
11. Conduct periodic site visits to confirm that the work is generally being conducted in accordance
with the design requirements.
12. Review contractor submittals and shop drawings.
13. Respond to contractor Requests for Information and assist client in negotiation of contractor
change order requests.
14. Review special inspection and test reports.
15. Perform a walkthrough of the project site at 95% completion to develop a punchlist of items not
completed by contractor.
Tax preferences and credits. Certain tax credit and tax preference incentives are available for the
rehabilitation of facilities. Special facilities, such as qualified historic landmarks, are prime candi-
dates for other tax incentives. These incentives are typically applicable only to private, for-profit
enterprises. In order to qualify for these incentives, it is necessary to comply with certain historic
preservation standards and to be subjected to a review and approval process for the design.
of its real value, while in other years, it may cost several times its actual value or may not be available at
all. This is why it is prudent not to rely on earthquake insurance as the sole means of risk management.
Another aspect of risk transfer involves an organizations suppliers and customers. To the extent that
provisions for special circumstances in the event of an earthquake can be written into contracts, then
the earthquake risk has been transferred. For example, if obligations to purchase supplies or deliver
product can be relaxed in the event of an earthquake, then additional time is gained by the organization
during its crisis period. Keeping this aspect in mind during contract negotiations, as an ongoing aspect,
can pay handsome dividends in the event of an earthquake, at little or no cost.
34.6.5.3 Physical Redundancy and Geographic Dispersion
One of the most effective techniques for mitigation of earthquake risk is to disperse operations into
independent locations at different sites. Although the effects of earthquakes can be widely dispersed over
a region of many square miles, the most extreme earthquake effects are typically limited to a small fraction
of the affected region. If all of the physical facilities associated with an operation are concentrated at a
single site or location, there may be significant potential for damage to this physical facility to completely
interrupt operations for an extended period of time. However, if the physical facilities are dispersed to
multiple locations, it becomes much less likely that all of these facilities would be damaged to an extent
that would limit operations at all of the locations. Thus, dispersion can become an effective tool to
maintain at least partial operational capability following a major earthquake. To the extent that the
dispersed facilities provide redundant capacity, it may be possible to provide full operational capability
if some of the facilities become damaged.
34.6.5.4 Data Backup
Redundant storage of critical records and data can be a highly effective risk mitigation technique.
Following the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, the City of Oaklands Building Department found itself
displaced from City Hall, which had been severely damaged by the earthquake. The building department
stored microfilm copies of the original construction drawings for private buildings in archives maintained
within City Hall. The red-tagging of that building effectively made these records unavailable for many
months following the earthquake, hampering the efforts of the community to assess and repair damage
sustained by other buildings. Had a redundant set of microfilm records been maintained in another, off-
site, location, it is highly unlikely that access to both sets of data would have been lost.
Public agencies and private businesses can maintain their own off-site records storage or, alternatively,
they can rely on any of a number of providers of this service. This may be particularly important for
electronic records that are maintained on-line. There are a number of private data centers that provide
stand-by electronic records storage, as well as data processing capability.
34.6.5.5 Retain Structural Engineers and Contractors
Following the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, the City of San Franciscos Building Inspection Department
found itself overwhelmed by the demand to perform post-earthquake safety inspections of public and
private buildings in the city. Even with the assistance of many volunteer inspectors, it took a period of
months before all buildings were evaluated and their conditions determined. During this period of time,
building owners and tenants were often at a loss to know whether it was safe to reoccupy damaged
buildings, leading to extensive economic losses.
In order to avoid these problems in future earthquakes, the City of San Francisco later established the
voluntary Business Occupancy Resumption Earthquake Inspection Program (BOREIP). Under the
BOREIP, building owners can retain qualified structural engineers to perform post-earthquake inspec-
tions of their buildings in the event of a future earthquake. These engineers must develop a
post-earthquake inspection plan for the building and be certified by the city as deputy building inspectors
for the specific building. Under the program BOREIP inspectors are obligated to perform post-earthquake
inspections within 36 hours of the occurrence of an earthquake disaster. They then have the authority
to post buildings, as inspected, following an earthquake, on behalf of the city.
Building departments can develop similar programs to speed the post-earthquake recovery of their
communities. In addition, even in the absence of such programs, individual public and private building
owners and tenants can retain structural engineers to perform rapid post-earthquake assessments of
buildings, to advise as to whether the buildings are safe for occupancy and to develop repairs in the event
these are required. While these engineers would not have the power to officially post a building, they
can provide assurance as to the condition of its structure and appropriate recovery actions. It is often
beneficial to develop retainer agreements with engineers before the earthquake actually occurs. In the
days and weeks immediately following a major earthquake, structural engineers are extremely busy and
are unlikely to be available on short notice unless advance arrangements have been made.
It may also be beneficial to develop similar retainer agreements with general contractors, so that there
is assurance that in the event repairs are needed, construction capability to effect these repairs will be
available.
effective emergency response plan can help to smooth the difficult immediate post-event recovery
period. Within days to weeks, outside assistance will begin to become available from such sources
as FEMA, the State of California Office of Emergency Services, the American Red Cross, and other
volunteer agencies. In extreme emergencies, military assistance may also be made available.
3. Restoring normal operations. Over a period of days to weeks and, in the worst disasters, perhaps a
period of years, normal operations will be restored. The length of time necessary for restoration
of normal operations will be directly dependent on the severity of the event, as well as the extent
to which risks were identified and mitigated, and emergency response plans developed prior to
the event. It many cases, what is deemed to be normal operations after the earthquake is not
the same condition that existed before the event. Earthquakes can have far-reaching economic and
social impacts that can completely change the character of a community and the long-term
profitability of individual businesses. For this reason, it is particularly important that public leaders
view earthquake risk reduction not only as their responsibility with regard to protection of public
facilities, but a responsibility that the entire community must share. One of the major benefits of
proactive risk mitigation on the part of a public agency is that it sets a leadership example for the
community at large.
4. Assessing the lessons learned. An important but often overlooked concluding step in the process is
a carefully conducted review of the loss and recovery experience. No matter how well prepared a
community or business is for an emergency, it will typically find that unanticipated problems
developed and that preparation could have been better. Although severe earthquakes are rare
events, it is possible for some communities in California, Japan, or other high seismicity regions
to experience major damaging events several times during a typical lifetime. The San Fernando
Valley, for example, experienced large-magnitude events in both 1971 and 1994, located within a
few miles of each other. A careful assessment of what went wrong and what went right in the
disaster can allow for better preparation for the next event, as well as serve as valuable learning
tools for other communities that have not yet been affected by earthquake disaster.
Defining Terms
Benefit The loss avoided by mitigation.
Benefit-cost ratio Ratio of avoided losses to cost required to avoid those losses. Both amounts should
be computed on the same basis. For example, if the mitigation cost is the current cost of
retrofitting, then the benefit should be computed in present value dollars.
Earthquake mitigation Actions taken to reduce the effects or unwanted consequences of earthquakes,
such as human casualties, structural damage, or business interruption. Actions can be taken
prior to an earthquake (e.g., strengthening a building) or after the earthquake (e.g., activating
a business continuity plan).
Exposure What is at risk that is the total value of assets that could conceivably be lost due to a
hazard such as earthquake. If 100 workers are employed in a company in or near one location,
that companys exposure at that location is 100 employees.
Lateral-force-resisting system (LFRS) The structural system in a building or structure that resists
lateral forces, arising, for example, from an earthquake. In order to resist an earthquake, a
structure must have a LFRS continuous to the foundation. Surprisingly, many pre-code struc-
tures may not have a demonstrable LFRS, and therefore are collapse hazards.
Risk management An integral activity of an organization, normally centralized in a risk management
department headed by the risk manager and associated with the chief financial function. Ideally,
risk managers monitor and manage all sources of risk to the organization aside from those
associated with the organizations central mission. For example, in a manufacturing company,
the risk manager will deal with property, life, and health risk, but not market or foreign exchange
risks or worker safety. In dealing with property risk, the risk manager will normally purchase
property insurance, but will also examine alternatives to insurance, such as strengthening a
building for earthquake so as to reduce the need for earthquake insurance.
Rough order of magnitude (ROM) estimate of costs ROM estimates are made at an early stage in
the design or development of a project. By ROM is not meant, in the mathematical sense,
variations on the order of powers of 10, but rather within a factor of 2. Therefore, if the ROM
cost estimate for strengthening a building is $1 million, it is anticipated that the final cost will
not be less than $500,000 and not more than $2 million. ROM estimates are refined in later
stages of the design or development process, such that final cost estimates are usually 20%
or less.
References
Federal Emergency Management Agency. 1997. NEHRP Guidelines for the Seismic Rehabilitation of
Buildings, FEMA 273, prepared by the Building Seismic Safety Council for the Federal Emergency
Management Agency, Washington, D.C.
Federal Emergency Management Agency. 1998. Handbook for the Seismic Evaluation of Buildings: A
Prestandard, FEMA 310, prepared by the American Society of Civil Engineers for the Federal
Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C.
Saaty, T. 1980. The Analytical Hierarchy Process, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
Further Reading
Earthquake Risk Management: A Toolkit for Decision-Makers, prepared by the California Seismic Safety
Commission and available via their Web site (www.seismic.ca.gov), is a useful compendium of methods
and tools for developing and implementing an earthquake mitigation program. The author was involved
in the development of the Toolkit and drew on it for this chapter, but it contains much additional material
and is highly recommended. Also recommended are two accompanying publications: A Guide for Deci-
sion-Makers and Earthquake Risk Management: Mitigation Success Stories, both also available via the
Commissions Web site.