Specialty Coffee Trends in Europe

European
Speciality Coffee Market Outlook
EUROPEAN SPECIALITY COFFEE

CONSUMPTION TRENDS
Mick Wheeler
European Speciality Coffee Consumption Trends
It would be fair to say that when the specialty coffee

movement started off in America, Europe was fairly
dismissive of this new American trend, believing that it
had always concentrated on quality.
But the force proved too strong and this new phenomenon
rapidly moved across the Atlantic.
However the two markets have developed in slightly

different ways.
Differences between the American and European Specialty
Europe is more fragmented with a greater number of

independent participants than is the case in America;
The European specialty coffee sector encompasses a much wider

range of regional brewing preferences than is evident in
America;
The American specialty movement has been more successful in

raising the overall quality profile of coffee consumption in
general than the European Speciality coffee movement has been.
European Speciality Coffee Market Outlook
Origin of American Imports of Green Coffee
35.0
30.0
% of total imports
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Brazil Colombia Guatemala Honduras Indonesia Mexico Nicaragua Vietnam
2010 2013 2015

Origin of EU Imports
35.0
30.0
25.0
% of Imports
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Brazil Colombia Ethiopia Honduras India Indonesia Peru Uganda Vietnam
2010 2013 2015

But lets take a closer look at what is

happening in Europe:
Overall - The Future is Relatively Bright, But there

are Clouds on the Horizon
Various sources all show the same trend, coffee consumption

in Europe is growing, but that growth is extremely slow;
The speciality coffee sector, however, appears to be growing

a little faster;
Although, the data sources remain fragmented and are

somewhat limited.
To explore this in a little more depth, I will examine the

following:
Exports of Organic and Differentiated Coffee

into Europe,
Overall coffee consumption in Europe, and
the
Development of the Coffee Sectors in the UK
and Germany, with a greater focus on the
coffee shop sectors in these countries.
It is a bit of mish-mash of data, but helps to paint a picture of a

sector of the industry, where some areas are growing vibrantly
but others not so well,
Reported Exports of Organic Coffee to Europe

900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
Bags
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reported Exports of Differentiated Coffee to Europe
2200000
2000000
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
Bags
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
European Coffee Disappearance
45,000
40,000
35,000
'000 bags
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
European Union per capita Consumption
Kgs per head
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Retail Sales of Fresh Coffee - Western Europe
1,300,000
1,280,000
1,260,000
1,240,000
1,220,000
tons
1,200,000
1,180,000
1,160,000
1,140,000
1,120,000
1,100,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sales of Coffee Pods -Western Europe
250,000
200,000
150,000
Tons
100,000
50,000
-
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
European Coffee European Coffee

Consumption 2010 Consumption 2015
Out of Out of
home home
18% 20%
Instant
Instant coffee
coffee 22%
Fresh Coffee Fresh Coffee
23% 59% 58%
So lets look at two markets in Europe, where reasonable (accessible) data

exists:
THE UK
&
GERMANY
Per capita Consumption

8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Germany United Kingdom

UK Market 2015
20,723 Coffee shops (up by 1,699 additional outlets in 2015)

Turnover an estimated 7.9 billion (US$11.9 billion) up 9.7% in 2015
Branded Coffee Shops 6,495 (up by 714 outlets in 2015)
Branded Coffee Shop turnover 2.6 billion (US$4.2 billion)
Main branded coffee shops players are:
Costa Coffee 1,922 outlets up by 171 outlets
Starbucks 849 outlets - up by 25 outlets
Caf Nero 620 outlets up by 30 outlets
They control 53% of the branded coffee shop market interestingly down
from 54% 2 years ago.
UK Coffee Shop Market

Number of Outlets
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Branded Chains Total Coffee Shops

Retail Coffee Sales in the UK
30,000
25,000
20,000
Tons
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pods Fresh coffee

THE EUROPEAN MARKET:
So whats happening in Germany
Errr Not much!!!!!
BUT
German Market 2015
The number of coffee shops in Germany, which includes dedicated

coffee shops, bakery stores, fast food outlets, petrol stations and other
outlets in 2015 was just over 25,000 (up just 0.1%)
Turnover an estimated 3.5 billion (US$3.9 billion) up 2.2% in 2015
Branded Coffee Shops 1,882 (up by just 30 outlets or 1.6% in 2015)
Branded Coffee Shop turnover estimated at 974 million (US$1.1
billion)
Main branded coffee shops players are:
McCafe 867 outlets up by 7 outlets
Starbucks 163 outlets - up by 6 outlets
Segafredo 87 outlets up by 4 outlets
Retail Coffee Sales in Germany
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
Tons
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pods Fresh coffee

European Speciality Coffee Consumption Trend
The Future for Consumption of Speciality Coffee in

Europe
European Consumption of Speciality coffee should continue to grow;
Furthermore the shifts in that consumption, witnessed over the last 5

years looks, set to continue, i.e.:
Out of home consumption will continue to grow;
Consumption of pods will continue to expand; but
Overall consumption of green coffee looks set to continue to stagnate.

Thank You

Specialty Coffee Trends in Europe

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European

Speciality Coffee Market Outlook

EUROPEAN SPECIALITY COFFEE

It would be fair to say that when the specialty coffee

However the two markets have developed in slightly

Differences between the American and European Specialty

Europe is more fragmented with a greater number of

The European specialty coffee sector encompasses a much wider

The American specialty movement has been more successful in

2010 2013 2015

2010 2013 2015

But lets take a closer look at what is

Overall - The Future is Relatively Bright, But there

Various sources all show the same trend, coffee consumption

The speciality coffee sector, however, appears to be growing

Although, the data sources remain fragmented and are

To explore this in a little more depth, I will examine the

Exports of Organic and Differentiated Coffee

It is a bit of mish-mash of data, but helps to paint a picture of a

Reported Exports of Organic Coffee to Europe

European Coffee Disappearance

European Union per capita Consumption

Kgs per head

Retail Sales of Fresh Coffee - Western Europe

Sales of Coffee Pods -Western Europe

European Coffee European Coffee

So lets look at two markets in Europe, where reasonable (accessible) data

Per capita Consumption

Germany United Kingdom

20,723 Coffee shops (up by 1,699 additional outlets in 2015)

UK Coffee Shop Market

Branded Chains Total Coffee Shops

Retail Coffee Sales in the UK

Pods Fresh coffee

So whats happening in Germany

Errr Not much!!!!!

The number of coffee shops in Germany, which includes dedicated

Retail Coffee Sales in Germany

Pods Fresh coffee

The Future for Consumption of Speciality Coffee in

Furthermore the shifts in that consumption, witnessed over the last 5

Out of home consumption will continue to grow;

Consumption of pods will continue to expand; but

Overall consumption of green coffee looks set to continue to stagnate.

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