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We are pleased to introduce Lumenpulse Inc. (Lumenpulse, LMP or the Company) as one Projected Total Return: 19.4%
of Echelon Wealth Partners top picks for 2017. The Companys recent blockbuster FQ217 Valuation: DCF (13.0% discount,
quarter is the beginning of what we foresee to be a stellar year of execution. With recent 3.5% GRIP)
acquisitions digested and one-time costs tapering off, management is focused on capitalizing Market Data
on cross-selling opportunities and cost synergies. Namely, managements commentary during Market Capitalization 477.1
Net Cash 11.9
the FQ217 conference call suggests a clear line of sight to achieving the Companys ambitious Enterprise Value 465.3
F2017 guidance. We present below our investment thesis, catalysts, and valuation. Basic Shares S/O 25.9
Fully Diluted Shares S/O 25.9
Investment Thesis: Incorporated in 2006, Lumenpulse is a pure-play specification-grade Avg. Daily Volume (K) 25.6
52 Week Range $13.86 - $19.14
lighting solutions company, providing clients with innovative technologies and strong Dividend Yield 0.0%
industrial designs. The Companys product portfolio includes over 400 products and with five
acquisitions now completed, LMP has positioned itself as an enviable player within the Revisions Current Old
2017E Revenue 224.9 NC
industry (Exhibits 1 and 2). Lumenpulse exposes investors to exceptional secular growth 2017E Adj. EBITDA 27.1 NC
trends. We believe the current valuation does not properly reflect the Companys best-in- 2017E Adj. EPS $0.77 NC
class earnings growth profile. Admittedly, in F2015 and F2016 management was focused on Financial Metrics
bolstering its product offering by executing and digesting acquisitions. F2017 is pegged as a FYE April 30 2016A 2017E 2018E
year of execution where we foresee the Company focusing its efforts on integration, Revenue 145.1 224.9 281.2
Adj. EBITDA 11.1 27.1 41.6
transitioning LMP into a double-digit EBITDA margin operator. While we recognize some of Adj. EPS FD $0.30 $0.77 $1.08
the lumpiness in quarterly performance and acquisition related one-timers, we expect these
Valuation Data
to taper off as early as the current fiscal year, significantly improving sales visibility and FYE April 30 2016A 2017E 2018E
earnings quality. Namely, we expect the top line to grow 30.6% from F2016 to F2020. We EV/Sales 3.2x 2.1x 1.7x
forecast Adj. EBITDA margins to reach 20.8% by F2020, up from 7.6% in F2016, driving a EV/EBITDA 42.0x 17.2x 11.2x
P/E 61.5x 24.0x 17.0x
67.7% Adj. EBITDA CAGR over the same period (Exhibit 3). ROIC moves from negative
territory to 7% during the current fiscal year. Longer term, at higher utilization levels, we Quarterly Data
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
anticipate LMP to be a high-20% ROIC operator. Jul-31 Oct-31 Jan-31 Apr-30
Rev. '16 31.9 37.4 35.5 40.3
Catalysts and Drivers: Our top line forecast implies a 55.0% growth rate for F2017. Our Rev. '17 45.3 56.3 57.5 65.8
Adj. EBITDA '16 2.0 4.2 3.6 1.3
forecasts are driven by the Companys latest and upcoming business initiatives, namely: (1) Adj. EBITDA '17 4.1 6.7 7.3 8.9
doubling Fluxwerxs product offering with the launch of three families of products last March, Adj. FD EPS '16 0.10 0.12 0.16 -0.09
setting the firm on track to achieve the high end of its sales earnout target by fiscal year end Adj. FD EPS '17 0.11 0.17 0.22 0.26
(~$55M in top line); (2) Lumenalpha 2.0, a series of 30+ new products, was globally launched in Company Description
FQ217. Marketed heavily by sales agents and VARs, we anticipate a step-up in sales to occur in Lumenpulse is a downstream LED supplier of
sustainable specification-grade lighting products. The
FQ317 and FQ417; (3) The UK salesforce has been realigned and strengthened, and is now firm sources LED modules and components, designs
double in size, the sales efforts of which are expected to act as a substantial driver for organic lighting fixates and assembles products in its facilities
located in Montreal, Quebec.
revenue growth in F2018; and (4) Lastly, 17 new products are scheduled to be launched prior to
$20.00 0.30
the end of F2017, illustrative of the Companys focus, momentum, and innovation. $19.00
Volume Price
$18.00 0.24
Beyond F2017, we believe LMP will continue to bulk its network of relationships with design $17.00
$16.00 0.18
specifiers, and as such fortify its reputation as a best-in-class, go-to lighting operator. We $15.00
anticipate that the Company will enhance its product offering through the application of cross- $14.00
$13.00
0.12
product designs and technologies (Lumentalk, Lumendrive, Anidolic Optics, etc.), providing $12.00 0.06
$11.00
design specifiers with a more comprehensive range of product configurations and solutions. The $10.00 0.00
Companys announced growth initiatives to date include: A North American launch for Exenia Jan-16 Mar-16 May -16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
(FQ118); a European launch for Fluxwerx products (FQ218); and the launch of a new family of
architectural lighting products (FQ318).
Valuation: We derive our $22.00/shr target price using a DCF analysis with a 13.0% discount rate and a 3.5%
perpetual growth rate (implied terminal exit EBITDA multiple of 6.5x; a discount to current NTM EBITDA multiple of
12.0x). Our $22.00 target price implies a 13.2x F2018 EBITDA multiple. Our valuation is further corroborated by
comparable multiples and historical multiple analyses. LMP trades at an ~18% premium to peers on an NTM
EBITDA basis. We believe the current premium to peers is extremely narrow given LMPs best-in-class growth profile.
Namely, the Street expects LMP to grow Sales/EPS at 41.4%/86.0% over the next two years versus the comps median
of 4.5%/11.0%. A much wider premium to peers is warranted in our opinion. Looking further out, Lumenpulse
currently trades at a significant discount to peers on a C2018 EBITDA basis (7.8x vs. 9.0x). On a historical basis, LMP
currently trades close to an all-time low EV/NTM EBITDA multiple.
Indoor Lighting
Dec-2015 No rebranding Full Range Florence, Italy $15M $13M $2M 15% 1.2x 7.8x
(Retail, Hospitality, Museum, etc.)
Outdoor Lighting
Mar-2015 Aera, Street, Pedestrian, Quebec City, QC $3M $3M $0M 14% 1.2x 8.8x
and Professional Lighting
Feb-2015 N/A Lighting Controls Technology Quebec City, QC $1M N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Indoor Lighting
Jul-2014 Commercial, Retail, Institutional, Manchester, UK $30M $21M $4M 21% 1.5x 7.2x
and Hospitality
Source: Lumenpulse, McKinsey & Company Research, Echelon Wealth Partners Inc.
Volume (M Shares)
Street Target: $20.06 $21.50 17%
Stock Price ($)
$14.00
0.20 Street Median: $19.50 $22.00 19%
$12.00 Lumenpulse is a downstream LED supplier of sustainable
$10.00 0.15 Street High: $25.00 $25.00 36%
specification-grade lighting products. The firm sources LED
$8.00 Street Low: $17.00 $18.50 0.4%
0.10 modules and components, designs lighting fixates and
$6.00 Consensus Distribution
assembles products in its facilities located in Montreal,
$4.00
0.05 Sector Outperform/Buy 7
$2.00 Quebec.
Sector Perform/Hold 2
$0.00 0.00
Sector Underperform/Sell 0
Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16
# Estimates 9
Historical Valuation
2.0x 18.0x
1.9x
16.0x
1.8x
1.7x 14.0x
1.6x
12.0x
1.5x
1.4x 10.0x
Nov-16
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(1)
FCF -45.6 -23.4 0.6 3.9 -1.7 1.8 4.7 -5.9 34.1
FCF (excl. acquisitions) -11.4 7.4 1.2 3.9 -1.7 1.8 5.3 19.1 34.1
(1) F2018 FCF includes a $25M earnout payment related to the Fluxwerx acquisition
Comparables
Comparables
and Peer Analysis Return EV / Sales EV / EBITDA P/E NTM EBITDA Rev. Growth Dividend LTM
1 Week 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year LTM NTM LTM NTM LTM NTM Margin 2-Year Est. Yield ROE
Acuity Brands, Inc. (4.2%) (16.1%) (15.2%) (10.7%) (0.2%) 2.6x 2.4x 15.4x 12.8x 29.8x 22.5x 18.9% 10.9% 0.3% 19.2%
Hubbell Inc. (0.5%) 1.0% 13.4% 1.1% 33.2% 2.1x 2.0x 12.0x 12.3x 22.9x 21.4x 16.3% 2.9% 2.4% 16.4%
OSRAM Licht AG (0.4%) 5.8% (4.3%) 3.8% 33.2% 1.2x 0.9x 5.1x 7.2x 10.1x 19.1x 12.8% -6.0% 1.9% 21.4%
Cree, Inc. 0.3% 0.4% 23.1% 4.6% 13.6% 1.5x 1.7x 17.5x 12.0x N/A N/A 14.6% -5.5% 0.0% 0.1%
AB Fagerhult 5.0% 8.7% 4.6% 7.1% 66.9% 2.5x 2.3x 17.0x 15.8x 24.7x 22.5x 14.8% 10.2% 1.4% 26.2%
Zumtobel Group AG 0.1% (11.5%) (4.3%) (7.4%) (19.9%) 0.6x 0.6x 7.6x 5.9x N/A 15.1 10.3% -0.3% 1.3% 3.5%
Everlight Electronics 0.8% 4.2% 0.4% 5.2% (8.0%) 0.7x 0.6x 4.5x 4.1x 13.9x 10.3 15.7% 3.6% 6.2% 10.9%
Dialight plc 1.9% 0.8% 12.7% 1.9% 93.5% 1.6x 1.4x 20.5x 11.9x N/A 27.3 11.5% 9.6% 0.0% -9.7%
LSI Industries Inc. (8.8%) (17.0%) (21.7%) (13.9%) (19.9%) 0.6x 0.6x 10.7x 10.2x 35.2x 28.3 5.5% 8.6% 2.3% 4.3%
Revolution Lighting (0.4%) 7.1% (10.0%) 12.9% (11.3%) 1.0x 0.9x 15.0x 8.8x N/A 12.1x 9.8% 25.6% 0.0% -0.6%
Lumens Co., Ltd. (2.7%) (2.1%) (13.3%) (1.0%) (24.1%) 0.3x 0.3x 6.8x 4.2x N/A 13.9x 8.1% 4.5% 0.0% -3.9%
Median (0.4%) 0.8% (4.3%) 1.9% (0.2%) 1.2x 0.9x 12.0x 10.2x 23.8x 20.3x 12.8% 4.5% 1.3% 4.3%
Lumenpulse (Street) (2.4%) (1.4%) 10.9% (0.4%) 9.8% 2.6x 1.7x 36.4x 12.0x N/A 20.4x 14.1% 41.4% 0.0% 0.6%
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Canadian Investor Protection Fund. ECHELON WEALTH PARTNERS INC. IS NOT SUBJECT TO U.K. RULES WITH REGARD TO THE PREPARATION OF RESEARCH REPORTS AND
THE INDEPENDENCE OF ANALYSTS. The contents hereof are intended solely for the use of, and may only be issued or passed onto persons described in part VI of the
Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any of the
securities discussed herein.
U.S. Disclosures: This research report was prepared by Echelon Wealth Partners Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and the
Canadian Investor Protection Fund. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any of the securities discussed herein. Echelon
Wealth Partners Inc. is not registered as a broker-dealer in the United States. The firm that prepared this report may not be subject to U.S. rules regarding the
preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
Company: Lumenpulse Inc. | LMP:TSX
I, Amr Ezzat, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that I have not, am not,
and will not receive, directly or indirectly, compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendations or views in this report.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Does the Analyst or any member of the Analysts household have a financial interest in the securities of the subject issuer?
No
If Yes: 1) Is it a long or short position? Yes; and, 2) What type of security is it? Common shares
Does the Analyst or household member serve as a Director or Officer or Advisory Board Member of the issuer? No
Does Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. or the Analyst have any actual material conflicts of interest with the issuer? No
Does Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. and/or one or more entities affiliated with Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. beneficially own common shares (or any other class of
No
common equity securities) of this issuer which constitutes more than 1% of the presently issued and outstanding shares of the issuer?
During the last 12 months, has Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. provided financial advice to and/or, either on its own or as a syndicate member, participated in a public
No
offering, or private placement of securities of this issuer?
During the last 12 months, has Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. received compensation for having provided investment banking or related services to this Issuer? No
Has the Analyst had an onsite visit with the Issuer within the last 12 months? Yes
Has the Analyst been compensated for travel expenses incurred as a result of an onsite visit with the Issuer within the last 12 months? No
Has the Analyst received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months? No
Is Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. a market maker in the issuers securities at the date of this report? No
RATING DEFINITIONS
The security represents attractive relative value and is expected to appreciate significantly from the current price over the next 12 month time
Buy
horizon.
Speculative Buy The security is considered a BUY but in the analysts opinion possesses certain operational and/or financial risks that are higher than average.
Hold The security represents fair value and no material appreciation is expected over the next 12-18 month time horizon.
Sell The security represents poor value and is expected to depreciate over the next 12 month time horizon.
While not a rating, this designates the existing rating and/or forecasts are subject to specific review usually due to a material event or share price
Under Review
move.
Echelon Wealth Partners recommends that investors tender to an existing public offer for the securities in the absence of a superior competing
Tender
offer.
Dropped Applies to former coverage names where a current analyst has dropped coverage. Echelon Wealth Partners will provide notice to investors
Coverage whenever coverage of an issuer is dropped.
RATINGS DISTRIBUTION
Recommendation Hierarchy Buy Speculative Buy Hold Sell Under Review Restricted Tender
Number of recommendations 33 23 5 0 2 2 1
% of Total (excluding Restricted) 52% 36% 8% 0% 3%
Number of investment banking relationships 8 5 0 0 0 2 0
% of Total (excluding Restricted) 62% 38% 0% 0% 0%
$12.00
$10.00
Apr 14 Aug 14 Dec 14 Apr 15 Aug 15 Dec 15 Apr 16 Aug 16 Dec 16
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