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TrumpWinLeavesQuestionsAboutLatino,AfricanAmericanVote
bySTEPHENA.NUO
Thiswasnotanormalelectionandpoliticalscientistswerewrongeverystepoftheway.Fromtheprimaryonthroughtoelectionnight,
Trumpdefeatedtheoddsandoverwhelmedthemathwithbruteforce.
ThoughtherewillbeattemptstoplaceClinton'slossonthelapsofAfricanAmericansandLatinosfornotturningout,thesekindsof
statementsaremisplacedforseveralreasons.
Forexample,thecompositionoftheelectoratewasnotstronglyDemocrat.Exitpollsplacedtheirshareofthevotersat37percent.This
isthesameshareoftheelectorateDemocratsheldin2004whenJohnKerrylost.DemocratsunderClintoncouldnotmaintainthe
levelsofturnoutamongtheirvotersthatPresidentBarackObamadid.
AnotherfactorthatmaycontributetolowturnoutistheimpactofthedismantlingofvoterprotectionlawsfollowingtheSupremeCourt
decision,Shelbyv.Holder.InstateslikeGeorgiaandNorthCarolina,theVotingRightsActwaslongrelieduponbyminoritiestodefend
againststringentelectorallawsthathadtheeffectofreducingvoterturnout.
WithoutthestrongerprotectionsoftheVotingRightsAct,researcherswillneedtoanalyzetheimpactthismayhavehadonminorities.
Alongwithturnout,theexitpollsillustratesomepeculiaritiesintheelectorate.Forexample,eventhoughTrumpranonacampaign
explicitlytargetingundocumentedimmigrants,theexitpollssaythat70percentofvoterspreferapathwaytolegalizationfor
undocumentedimmigrants.
Anotherpeculiarityisthat53percentofvotersintheexitpollssaidtheyapprovedofObama,thesamepercentwhoapprovedofhimas
in2012whenhewonthePresidency.AndyetmanywhoapprovedofObamachosetovoteforDonaldTrump,acandidatewhohadrun
explicitlyastheantiObama.
ThenumberssuggestedClintonwasnotabletoinspireAfricanAmericansinthewayObamadid.WhereasObamagarnered95
percentoftheblackvote,exitpollsshowonly88percentofAfricanAmericanscasttheirvoteforClinton.
Mostsurprisingly,officialexitpollsshowTrumpwon29percentoftheLatinovoteRomneyhadwon27percentin2012.For
researchers,thismaybeconfounding.DatafrompreelectionpollsgatheredbyotherpollingfirstshowTrump'sshareoftheLatinovote
closerto18percent.
ThepollingfirmLatinoDecisionssetoffaTwitterstormafterthereleaseofearlyexitpolldatathatshowedhighsupportforTrump.
AswithLatinos,blackmenvotedforTrumpinhighernumbersthantheirfemalecounterparts,at13percentcomparedto4percentof
blackwomen.
However,oneofthemoredifficultpartsoftheelectoratetopredictarenewvoters.Whilethenumberofnewvoterslastnightwerenot
muchdifferentthanin2008,about10percent,Clintononlywon56percentofthosefirsttimevoters,whileObamawon69percentof
firsttimevotersin2008.
ExplainingthiswilltaketimeandeffortgivenallthedatawehaveseentodateonLatinovoters.Asthedatacomesin,analystswill
needtochecktheirmodelsandtheassumptionsunderlyingthem.Fornow,weawaitwhataPresidentTrumpwilldoandwhatthat
meansforthekindofAmericawewanttobe.
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