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Climate Change & Water Resources:

Impact and adaptation


——气候变化与水资源:影响及适应
Dr. Guoqing WANG / 王国庆教授
Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, MWR
Research Center for Climate Change, MWR
南京水利科学研究院
March 25, 2010, Beijing
Contents

 Climate Change and Water Resources


气候变化与水资源
 Impact Assessment for Water Resources
对水资源的影响评价
 Adaptative Strategies and Priorities
适应策略及优先适应
Global Temperature / 全球气温变化

Global annual mean temperature: +0.74℃ /年均气温升高0.74


The warmest decade: 1990s / 20世纪90年代是最热的10年
Recent 11 years rank among the 12 warmest years / 1860年
以来最热的12年有11年发生在1995~2006
Temperature change in China / 中国气温变化

Similar rising trend to global temperature / 趋势与全球相似


Temperature rise during the last 100yrs: 0.5~0.8℃ / 近100年
气温升高0.5~0.8℃
Rising rate during the last 50yrs: 0.22℃/10a / 近50年气温平
均升率0.22℃/10a
Precipitation change in China(降水变化)

Decreasing
Increasing
Decreasing

Increasing

Trend ratios of precipitation during 1951-2002


Western: Increase Northern: Decrease
西部增加 北部减少
Southern: Increase Northeastern: Decrease
南部增加 东北减少
Changes of extreme rainstorm events /暴雨变化

Changes in 60mins rainfall Trend rate of rain days of


before and after 1980 extreme rainstorms

Short duration rainfall intensity: Increasing /暴雨强度增加


Kuanping, Shanxi: 1998.07,1300mm/6-7hr
Zhanjiang, Guangdong: 2007.08,1188mm/24hr Rain
days of extreme rainstorms: Increasing / 极端降水日数增加
Water Resources in China / 中国水资源

Mountain
Areas(山丘区)
35mm Plain
4% 118mm 677.2 bm3 areas(平原区)
12% 82% 176.5 bm3
667mm
18%
84%

Overlap: 31.8 bm3

Annual runoff depth: 288mm


年径流深288mm Ground water: 821.9bm3
Surface water: 2737.5bm3 地下径流量:821.9bm3
地表径流量:2737.5bm3
Characteristics of WR /水资源特点

多年平均降水量

Spatial distribution Temporal distribution


空间分布 时间分布

Uneven distribution in time and space/时空分布不均: 80%


Low water occupation per capita/人均水资源量低:< 30%
Serious shortage:400/668 cities,
水资源严重短缺: Gap=40bm3, in Normal Year
Huge losses due to flooding and drought / 洪涝、干旱灾害损失巨
大:>GDP1%
Water Issues in China / 四大水问题

Flooding / 水多 Decreasing / 水少

Polluting /水脏 Losing / 水混


Changes in Recorded Runoff / 实测径流变化

唐乃亥
花园口

王家坝
吴家渡

石匣里
响水堡

张家坟

哈尔滨
宜昌
汉口
大通

利津

观台

下会

铁岭
江桥

梧州
石角
竹歧
20 -0.81.9 3.7
9.1 7.6
-0.9-0.9
0
距平 (%)

-3.2 -4.8 -2.5 -2.2


-20 海河
黄河
-40 -33 -30.9
-40.1
-60 -55.5
-61.2 -62.2
-80 -77.9
-76.6

控制站
Decreasing rate of runoff during 1980-2004 comparing to that
before 1980
Significant decreasing : Haihe River, Yellow River
显著减少:海河,黄河
Slight changing: other rivers
轻微变化:其它河流
Climate change and Hydrological cycle
气候变化与水文循环

Global Warming Sustainable utilization


(水资源的可持续利用)

Hydrological cycle Changes in rainfall


Contents

Climate Change and Water Resources


气候变化与水资源
 Impact Assessment for Water Resources
对水资源的影响评价
 Adaptative Strategies and Priorities
适应策略及优先适应
Assessment approach
气候变化影响评价途径

Vertically
integrated

Projected

Horizontally integrated
Scenario / 情景 Assessment / 评价 Adaptation / 适应
 Projected  Model  Policy
 Hypothetical  Impacts  Technology
National Key Project (85-913-03-03 )
Tributaries GCMs  Study Catchments/研究区域:
Tributaries of six big rivers

Social economic database


Hydro-meteorologic Database

Random weather model


 Assessment Models/评价模型:
Water balance models Lumped Water Balance
Models / 集总式水量平衡模型
Assessment system of water

Effect assessment 40 Sub-area1

Runoff/mm
30
Adaptation measures 20

10
 Assessment / 评价: The future water 0
resources, based on outputs of 7 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968
Time/month
GCMs
National Key Project (96-908-03-04 )
GCMs or RCM
(60km×60km)
80
Hydro-meteorologic database

60 -2℃
Downscaling of P and T (30km×30km) 40 -1℃

DR(%)
GIS database
0℃
20
1℃
30km×30km grid based hydrological model 0
2℃
-20 -20 -10 0 10 20

Spatial distribution and simulated discharge -40


DP(%)

Sensitivity analysis

 Study basins / 研究区域: 4 big river basins


 Assessment Models / 评价模型: 30×30km grid based hydrologic
model
 Assessment / 评价: sensitivity analysis
National Key Project (2001-BA611B-02-04)
 Study area: China
 研究区域:中国
 Assessment Model:VIC
 Assessment:vulnerability

 P  W0  W0max I0  P  Im
   I P  1 
Qd  
P  W  W max
1  1  0   I 0  P  I m
 0 0

  
I m  

 d1 W2 W2  WS W2max
Qb  

d1 W  d 2  W2  WS W2
max
 W2  WS W2max
Temperature trends in 21th Century
21世纪全球气温变化趋势
6.4℃

1.1℃

( IPCC AR4, 2007 )

Temperature rise: 1.1-6.4℃ / 21世纪末气温升高1.1-6.4


Warmer globe / 一个更加温暖的地球
Possible climate change in China
21世纪我国可能的气候变化

Precipitation:Increase in most areas, Decrease in Northern


China and North-eastern China before 2040 / 大多数地区降水增加,
但华北和东北可能减少
Temperature / 气温变化:2030,1.7℃;2050,2.2℃
Projected water resources distribution
未来水资源分布变化
A2 scenario

Change in runoff distribution under the scenario A2


2071-2100年A2情景下的径流分布变化
Probability of flood and drought hazards would increase / 洪涝
干旱灾害可能增加
The pattern of south-flood and north-drought would aggravate.
Projected water resources distribution
未来水资源分布变化
B2 scenario

Change in runoff distribution under the scenario B2


2071-2100年B2情景下的径流分布变化
• Similar to that under scenario A2, exacerbating the instability of water
system / B2情景下的水资源类似A2, 水资源系统可能更加不稳定
Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change
水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性

Sensitivity /敏感性
Sensitivity of hydrology to climate change is response degree of
hydrological variable to climate change. High response under the
same climate change means more sensitive to climate change

Study basin
研究流域
Cold region:Yilihe River Semi-humid region:Huai R
高寒山区:伊犁河 半湿润区:淮河
Semi-arid region:Yellow R Humid region:Dongjiang R
半干旱区:黄河 湿润区:东江
Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change
水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性

Yilihe River Yellow River


伊犁河 黄河

T RISE: increases Spring discharge, decreases runoff in other seasons


气温升高降增加春季径流,减少其它季节径流量
Surface runoff: more sensitive to climate change
地表径流对气候变化更为敏感
Human activities: could decrease sensitivity of runoff
人类活动能够在一点程度上降低水资源对气候变化的敏感性
Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change
水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性
100 60
-3℃ -2℃ -1℃ -3℃ -2℃ -1℃
80
0℃ +1℃ +2℃ 40 0℃ +1℃ +2℃
60
+3℃ +3℃

径流量变化(%)
径流量变化(%)

20
40
Huaihe River
20
淮河 0
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
0
-20
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
-20
降水变化(%) 降水变化(%)
-40
-40
Dongjiang River
-60 -60 东江

Precipitation change: result in larger runoff change than T does


对降水变化比对温度变化的响应更为敏感
Same change range: P+ result in larger runoff change than P-
降水增加比减少对径流的影响更显著
Arid region: more sensitive; while humid region less
干旱区对气候变化响应比湿润区更敏感
Sensitivity comparison of Hydro-variables
不同水文变量敏感性比较
80 60
SOIL
40
ACTUAL
RUNOFF
-3℃ -2℃ -1℃ -3℃ -2℃ -1℃
-3℃ -2℃ -1℃
60 0℃ +1℃ +2℃
40 MOISTURE
0℃ +1℃ +2℃ EVAPORATION
0℃ +1℃ +2℃

实际蒸发量变化(mm)
土壤含水量变化(mm)
20
径流 +3℃ +3℃
径流量变化(mm)

40 +3℃
20 大夏河
20 土壤湿度 实际蒸发
大夏河
大夏河 年均值
年均值 0
0 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
0
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
-20 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
-20
降水变化(%) -20 降水变化(%) 降水变化(%)
-40

-60 -40 -40

 Response Law:similar between actual evaporation and soil moisture


实际蒸发和土壤湿度对气候变化的响应规律类似
 P changes:Runoff, actual evaporation, soil moisture, (bigger->less)
径流、蒸发和土湿对降水变化的响应依次降低
 T changes:Soil moisture, runoff, actual evaporation, (bigger->less)
土湿、径流和实际蒸发对气温变化的响应依次降低
Identification of CC contribution (YRB)
气候变化对径流历史变化的贡献评价

Climate-induced Human-induced
Reco-ed Simu-ed Total redu
Periods
(108m3) (108m3) (108m3) 108m3 (%) 108m3 (%)

Baseline 237.5
1970-1979 148.5 198.5 89.0 39.0 43.82 50.0 56.18
1980-1989 172.7 217.6 64.8 19.9 30.67 44.9 69.33
1990-2000 95.3 181.1 142.2 56.4 39.64 85.8 60.36
1970-2000 138.8 199.5 98.7 38.0 38.53 60.6 61.47

Human activities are main reasons of runoff reduction in YR


人类活动是径流减少的主要原因
Contribution of Climate change accounts for 39%
气候变化影响占径流减少总量的39%
Contents

Climate Change and Water Resources


气候变化与水资源
Impact Assessment for Water Resources
对水资源的影响评价
 Adaptative Strategies and Priorities
适应策略及优先适应
Climate Change, IWRM and Resilience
气候变化与水资源一体化管理
 Many challenges not new, nor product of climate
change alone. /目前水资源短缺不是气候变化单一作用的结果
 Water resources are already stressed due to
economic growth, population pressure and lifestyles.
经济发展、人口增加、生活方式改变,
已经使得水资源利用面临着巨大的压

 Many climate change impacts


are just extreme examples of
existing challenges. /气候变化
的影响只是目前水资源压力基础上的
极端情形
Integrated WR Management / 水资源一体化管理

Flooding Flood management

水 多 洪 水 管 理

W Shortage Water saving

水 少 节 水 技 术

W Pollution Green economic

水污染 绿 色 经 济
Self restoration
W Losing + engineering
水土流失 自我修复与水土保持
1. Water-Saving Society / 节水型社会

Index of water usage Developed


China Countries

Consumed Water/ 10000GDP(RMB) 4×World


537 m3 Mean value

The effective-utilization coefficient of


agricultural irrigation water(灌溉水利 0.4-0.5 0.7~0.8
用系数)
2. Non-Traditional water sources / 非传统水源
• High cost / 高费用.
Waste water treatment
• Technology Support / 技术
污水处理 支持
Storm water harvest
雨洪资源利用
Sea water desalination
海水淡化
水 窖

北京市高碑店污水处理厂
3. Water Controlling Projects / 控制性工程

JingJiang dyke
Reservoirs / 水库
River dikes / 堤防
Flood retention areas / 滞洪区 Embankment

Water transfer projects / 调水工程

Three Gorge Reservoir  Reservoirs: 87,000


 已建水库:87,000
 Total storage capacity: 600 billion m3
 总蓄水容量: 6000亿 m3
Water transfer project / 调水工程

中线 海河Haihe river
工程
ML 东
线
黄河 Yellow river 工
西 程
线 淮河Huaihe river EL


长江Yangtze river
WL
4. Water Resources Management / 水资源管理
Perfect policy, laws, and
regulations / 完善法律、法
规和政策
Public education / 公众教育

Toward WDM rather than


WSM / 加强需水管理
Priorities of Adaptation
优先适应领域

Improvements / 改进

New scenario / 新情景


Assessment model, especially for ungauged areas / 改进模型

Limitation of adaptation / 适应的局限性

More strategies at state level / 多集中在国家层面


Lack of regional adaptation strategies / 缺少区域有效措施
More strategy on mean, less on extreme / 缺少极端事件的适应
1. Regional adaptation strategies / 区域性适应

Principle / 原则
Different issues for different regions / 不同区域面临不同问题
Different adaptation strategies for different regions / 不同区域的适
应措施存在差异

Key Regions
东北粮食主
西北生态脆 产区
弱干旱区

黄淮海国家
重点发展区
三江源我国
主要水源区 东南沿海经
济发达区
2. Strategies for extreme events/ 应对极端事件

工作人员调查景区受灾情况 Flood
Drought

温州苍南县城被洪水围困,
县城停电,网络和电视不通
For more
information
Thanks for your attention
谢谢!