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Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

(ITS) Surabaya
Marine Technology Faculty
Marine Engineering Department

Session Three
Definition of Maritime Market:
Activitiy to plan, measure and assess it

R.O. Saut Gurning, ST. MSc, PhD. CMarTech.MIMarEST


Material / Content

The concept of maritime market


The behaviour of maritime market
Type of maritime market
The concept of supply and demand
Factors affecting supply and demand level
Units of supply and demand
Maritime dependency factor (MDF)
Selecting suitable and sustain maritime market
Case Study
2
CONCEPT OF MARKET
A place, either whether it is physical or
virtual connecting seller/s (1st party) and
buyer/s (2nd party) with or without third
party
Maritime market is derived from economy
and trade
Fundamental process: Ships follow the
trade
Type of Maritime Market
Cargoes and passangers
Ships (newbuilding and second-hand)
Freight costs (biaya angkut)
Chartering (sewa kapal )
Shipyard (newbuilding/repair)
Ship crews/seafarers
Scrapping (demolisi kapal)
Ship bunkering
Insurance and ship finance
Pilotage + Tug service
UNITS OF MARKET
TONNES.MILES / PAX.MILES
Volume x distance
Volume is affected by type of cargoes, raw,
semi-finished, finished. Low/high in value
Distance, is measured due to routes
selected
Higher volume and longer distance will
produce or require high demand and
supply
DETERMINING FACTORS OF TRADING

Production modal/input (land, water,


labor/man, resources)
Advantages (absolute, comparative,
competitive)
Economic motives (culture, custom, social
modal: discipline, ethics, hard-work, group
spirit/collaboration, trustworthy)
Government policies (intervention,
subsidies, protection, preferences, blocks)
PLAYERS OF TRADING

Individual (house-holds, personal)


Private entities (companies, business units)
Public (state, local or community owned
companies
Government (centre, national-scale,
provincial, municipal, cities)
Cooperation (particularly applied in
Indonesia)
DEMAND OF GLOBAL SEABORNE (2009-2010)

MAJOR BULKS -IRON CORE (480 MT)


(1150 MT) -GRAIN (200 MT)
-BAUXITE / ALUM (50 MT)
-PHOSPHATE (30 MT)
DRY CARGO -COAL (450 MT)
(2780 MT)
WORLD SEA
BORNE TRADE
(4950) MT OTHER DRY (1620 OTHER BULKS
MT) (790 MT)

LIQUID BULK GENERAL CARGO


(2170 MT) (830 MT)

CRUDE OIL
(1630 MT)

OIL
PRODUCTS
(540 MT)
TYPES OF CARGOES DEFINE

The packaging of cargoes to be used


Specific approach in handling cargoes
Specific treatment to protect the cargoes
Vehicle or modes of transport to carry
Operation of storage or inventories
Type of ship, its facilities and capacities
The criteria of berth, terminal and port
Derived Demand - Market behaviour
Maritime market is relied on trade development or progress

Economy in micro and macro


level may increase/decrease Economic activities of The expectation of
due to the development producing, consuming and shipping services
progress of economic modal, purchasing may create stimulate othe further
asset, labor, productivity, needs, interaction and trading services for port,
among entities, zone and forwarding, and shipyards
competency/competitivess
nations.

Production Need Sea Port,


Economy Consumption Interaction Transport Forwarding,
Purchasing Trading Services Shipyard

The economy drives the


economic activities of entities The level of need interaction
(house-holds, private and public including trading embrance
including government agencies) the service of maritime
to produce products/services in transport in supporting sea-
the level of local, national or borne trade for domestic
international scales and international purposes

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The correlation of economic level
and maritime market level

Undevelop economy Ships, shipping, ports Developed Economy

Ships promote the trade Following the status of Ships follow the trade
economical level
Stimulating trafiic According to volume or value
The service pattern will differ of cargoes
From low market to one to others depending on
commercial level cargoes transported Provide low logistics costs
Maintain availabilty of Can create its market Open accesibility of cargo into
shipping service to support the market
people and cargo mobility May be utilised as stimulator
Embrance competitiveness
Shipowner may as trader or and benefit of the economy
shippers

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Maritime market (Stopford 2007)
Shipping supply-demand
market (Stopford 2008, p.138)
At the heart of the demand module (A) are the
cargo shippers. Their decisions over the
sourcing of raw materials and the location of
processing plant such as oil refineries determine
how trade develops and, of course, they
negotiate freight rates, time charters and FFAs.
Many shippers are large corporations trading
raw materials and manufactures, but in recent
years they have been joined by commodity
traders and operators who have cargo contracts
for which ships are.
The people who play a central part in supply
module (B) are the shipping investors. The term
shipping investor is used because although
many decision-makers will be private
shipowners or shipping
Imbalances between the supply and demand
modules feed through into the third part of the
model, the freight market (C), where freight
rates are constantly adjusting in response to
changes in the balance of supply and demand.
This freight module is a switchbox controlling
the amount of money paid by shippers to
shipowners for the transport of cargo, and it is
this flow of money which drives the shipping
SHIPPING CYCLE
One full movement from a point of
bottom going up to a hill and return back
in down-ward line reaching bottom again
If the line is moving upwards, it means
good for business. While moving
downward is bad situation
Cycle may be in the form of short term,
seasonal, and long-term
SEASONAL, SHORT- LONG CYCLICAL AND ITS RISK

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SHIPPING CYCLE COMPOSITE-MODE
(STOPFORD, 2007, P.170)
FACTORS DETERMINING DEMAND

Economy (Consumption, production, purchasing,


export-import, competency-competition)
Development of GDP / GRDP
Sea-borne Trade (Volume, value, route)
Economic policy (Exchange rate, interest rate, tax)
Economic structure (Value, volume)
Trade Policy (free, monopolistic, controlled)
Cargo demand / supply side (cargo mapping)
POLITICAL FACTORS

War (demand of military logistics )


Political alliances (MEC, ASEAN, APEC)
Preferences on certain countries due to:
Natural
Weather similarity
Environmental support
Climate consideration
TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS

Technological process on ship and


equipment
Information and communication
technology
Land-Bridge
Channel / Tunnel
DYNAMICS OF DEMAND CHANGES

Variable : Price of cargo and ship, preference of


passengers
Fluctuation + Transformation
The dynamics of ship freight
Shipyard costs
Long-term cost anticipation such as investment for
expansion
CONCERNS ON SUPPLY
Number of ships required?
Annual ship capacity (ship carrying
capacity - payload) ?
Speed?
Respond to port facility
Respond to service ? (for ships, cargoes and
passengers)
FACTORS AFFECTING SUPPLY

A. TYPE OF SHIP CARGO TYPES / PACKAGING


B. SIZE (UKURAN) : GT > NUMBER OF SHIP
SFOC= a. VS
3
C. SAILING SPEED SPEED , SFOC ,
D. TIME IN PORT LOADING, DISCHARGING
* TURN AROUND TIME,
* CARGO HANDLING,
* FACILITIES + SERVICES
* TRANSIT / TRANSHIPMENT TIME
* TRADE FACILITATING TIME (CUSTOMS, BANKS, INSURANCE)
FACTORS AFFECTING SUPPLY

E. RATIO OPERATION / MAINTENANCE (O/M)


* OLD SHIP LOW OPERATIONAL LEVEL, HIGH MAINTENANCE

* YOUNGER SHIPS HIGH OPERATIONAL, LOW MAINTENANCE

* O/M DECREASE DUE TO CARRYING CAPACITY

F. LOADING FACTOR (SPACE UTILIZATION)


* FULL/ PARTIAL LOAD DUE TO MARKETING PATTERN
* RETURN VOYAGE (TANKER / BULK BALLAST VOYAGE)
FACTORS AFFECTING SUPPLY

G. REGULATION
v SAFETY AND SECURITY
v CABOTAGE PRINCIPLE
v RATIONAL COMPETITION
v LOCAL POLICY
H. MACRO-ECONOMICS FACTORS
* INFLATION FACTORS
* FISCAL POLICY
* BANKING AND INSURANCE POLICY
MARKET CONDITION
BALANCE / HEALTY, D = S
SATURATED, D < S or D far
lower than S
VIABLE MARKET, D >> S
SUBSIDISED, Rural D << S
TRADE-OFF THE LEVEL OF MARITIME
SERVICE AVAILABILITY
MACRO REG/
ECONOMIC PRACT

SHIPS SIZE /
TYPE TIME
IN
+ - PORT
SHIPS SPEED EXPECTED AVOIDED

SHIPS
SHIP CARRYING AGE
LOADING
FACTOR CAPACITY
PERSAMAAN
PERSAMAAN UMUM
DDt = f (CTt , AH t ) .. P(1)
SS t = f (MFt , Pt ) .. P(2)
dimana;
DD = permintaan transportasi perdagangan lewat laut (ton.mil)
CT = tonase kargo yang dipindahkan dalam satu periode waktu (ton)
AH = rata-rata jarak tempuh kargo (mil)
SS = suplai transportasi perdagangan lewat laut (cargo ton.mil)
P = produktivitas kapal (ton.mil cargo/dwt/tahun)
MF = armada kapal niaga (dwt)
T = tahun

PERSAMAAN PERMINTAAN (DEMAND)


CTtk = f ( Et , EC , IC, NC , LC , etc) .. P(3)
CTt = (CTtk ) .. . P(4)
k

DDtk = CTtk * AH tk . P(5)


DDtm = ( Atkm * DDtk ) . P(6)
k

DDtkm
Atkm = ... P(7)
DDtk
PERSAMAAN
PERSAMAAN PENAWARAN ( SUPPLY )
MF m = MF ( t -1) m + D tm - S tm ... P(8)

AMF tm = MF tm - L tm .... P(9)

SS tm = AMF tm * Ptm ... P(10)

SS tm ( FR tm ) = DD tm ( FR tm ) .... P(11)
dimana;
E = indikator dari aktivitas ekonomi
EC = proporsi kargo yang diekspor
IC = proporsi kargo yang diimpor
NC = pr oporsi kargo yang ditransportasikan secara nasional
LC = proporsi kargo lokal
A = market share dari suatu tipe kapal tertentu (persentasi)
D = tersedianya kapal niaga per tahun (m.dwt)
S = banyaknya kapal yang scrapped (dibesi -tuakan) per ta hun
P = produktivitas kapal (ton.mil/dwt/tahun)
AMF = armada kapal niaga yang aktif (m.dwt)
L = tonase yang tidak aktif ( laid -up )
FR = freight rate
m = tipe kapal (misalnya tanker, kontainer, dan lain - lain)
k =komoditi (misalnya minyak, batubara, dan lain - lain)
MODEL SUPPLY/ DEMAND ARMADA TANKER
Tanker demand Tanker Fleet
Crude and products trade Tanker Less
Less Oil fleet Active Total
Trade Av. Transport combined tanker productivity Tanker Laid stor- In Tanker
Volume Haul required carriers demand tm dwt Fleet up age grain fleet
Tahun mt miles btm btm Btm per annum m.dwt m.dwt m.dwt m.dwt m.dwt
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
1975 582 4,210 2,450 0 2,450 37,348 66 0.7 0 1 67.3
1976 652 4,248 2,770 0 2,770 39,180 71 0.5 0 1.7 72.9
1977 727 4,292 3,120 24 3,096 40,365 77 0.4 0 3.4 80.5
1978 802 4,151 3,329 53 3,276 38,271 86 0.4 0 3.4 89.4
1979 865 4,775 4,130 162 3,968 41,077 97 0.3 0 1.4 98.3
1980 975 5,074 4,947 358 4,589 42,649 108 0.2 0 0.6 108.4
1981 1,080 5,197 5,613 400 5,213 42,660 122 0.2 0 0.7 123.1
1982 1,193 5,438 6,487 465 6,022 43,386 139 0.2 0 0.8 139.8
1983 1,317 5,660 7,454 714 6,740 42,390 159 1.2 0 0.4 160.6
1984 1,446 5,982 8,650 920 7,730 43,525 178 1.4 0 0.7 179.7
1985 1,640 6,230 10,217 1,255 8,962 44,877 200 0.3 0 1.4 201.4
1986 1,625 6,536 10,621 1,084 9,537 40,966 233 0.7 0 0.7 234.2
1987 1,496 6,504 9,730 826 8,904 36,358 245 26.8 0 1.1 272.8
1988 1,670 6,676 11,149 841 10,308 38,766 266 38.5 0 2.2 306.6
1989 1,724 6,614 11,403 912 10,491 35,527 295 30.3 0 1.6 327.2
1990 1,702 6,196 10,546 676 9,870 33,732 293 32.8 4 0.5 329.9
1991 1,776 5,910 10,497 635 9,862 33,844 291 14.8 21 0.4 327.6
1992 1,596 5,789 9,239 404 8,835 28,417 311 7.9 8 0 326.8
1993 1,437 5,701 8,193 368 7,825 26,136 299 13 11 0 323.4
1994 1,278 4,915 6,282 389 5,893 22,850 258 40.8 12 0 310.7
1995 1,212 4,586 5,558 328 5,230 23,516 222 52.4 15 0 289.8
1996 1,227 4,603 5,648 285 5,363 24,817 216 46 10.5 0 272.6
1997 1,159 4,450 5,157 304 4,853 23,399 207 34.9 9.6 0 251.9
1998 1,263 4,675 5,905 479 5,426 27,460 198 20.8 14.6 0 233
1999 1,265 4,668 5,905 480 5,425 26,361 206 11 11.9 0 228.7
2000 1,367 4,770 6,520 355 6,165 28,280 218 4 10.4 0 232.4
2001 1,460 4,984 7,276 316 6,960 30,380 229 2.3 7.9 0 239.3
2002 1,526 5,125 7,821 445 7,376 31,834 232 2.3 12.4 0 246.4
2003 1,573 5,268 8,287 403 7,884 31,958 247 2.2 6.1 0 255
2004 1,648 5,217 8,597 398 8,199 32,783 250 5.8 4.6 0 260.5
2005 1,714 5,345 9,162 431 8,731 34,145 256 4.5 5.3 0 265.5
2006 1,755 5,316 9,329 328 9,001 35,340 255 3.5 3.7 0 261.9
2007 1,808 5,155 9,320 234 9,086 36,013 252 3.1 5.7 0 261.1
KETERANGAN
1 Taksiran 7 (11)-(10)-(9)-(8)
2 (3)/(1)*1000 8 Taksiran
3 Taisiran 9 Taksiran
4 Taksiran 10 Taksiran
5 (5)*(3)-(4) 11 Taksiran
NODES DEPENDING ON MARITIM:
MARITIME DEPENDECY FACTOR (MDF)
MDF (Factors which measure the dependency level of sea-
mode compared to other mode of transports) = the real
volume/value of seaborne-trade compared to real total combined
volume of seaborne + inland + air + railway on certain periodical
time
MDF > 50% dominan archipelagic; MDF < 50% continental
CHARACTERISTICS
MDF archipelagic > MDF Continental
MDF vol > MDF value, indication of raw material > industry
Interaction of Eastern Indonesia > Western of Indonesia
Indonesia excluding Java having potential MDF more than
50%
PRACTICAL PLANNING
Find out area or points (origin-destination with a typical
cargo to be carried)
Need to predict over the time whether the cargoes will be
traded for both market/points continuously and in balance
level of volume or value due to higher consumption,
production and purchasing
Consider the existing or similar players in the market and
their competencies/competing level
How big the market portion would like to occupy according
to capability as follower, peer or controller of the market
Assess whether the market, after assessing demand and
supply is in balanced, saturated, viable or subsidised
CASE-STUDY
Pertumbuhan energi Indonesia secara rata-rata
sekitar 12,5% per tahunnya. Sementara Inpres
5 tahun 2006 pemerintah ingin melakukan
konversi energi dari minyak kepada energi
yang lain contohnya batubara. Rencananya
pemerintah ingin menyediakan sejumlah
fasilitas PLTU dengan kapasitas 10.000 MW
untuk dapat mengantisipasi kebutuhan energi
hingga tahun 2020.
CONTOH
DEMAND/PERMINTAAN
Saat 2010 kapasitas PLTU yang ada dengan besaran
sekitar 15.000 MW, besaran permintaan batubara
sekitar 35 juta ton per tahun secara kontinu. Dengan
sumber batubara berada di wilayah Kalimantan
Timur (Samarinda) dan Kalimantan Selatan
(Kotabaru); dan dengan pembeli berada di wilayah
Pulau Jawa, Sulawesi, Bali, dan Nusa Tenggara.
Diperkirakan dengan penambahan 10.000 MW maka
pertambahan pasar batubara berada kisaran 50.000-
60.000 ton tambahan yang dibutuhkan per harinya
atau 18-21 juta ton/tahun.
CONTOH SUPLAI
Secara eksis bentuk perdagangan antar pembeli dan
penjual batu bara dapat digambarkan sebagai berikut:

Stock-Pile Pembeli
Tambang Coal Carrier

Tongkang Stock-Pile
Pembangkit
Tongkang Kecil 4,5-7,5 Listrik
USD/ton
Angkut Survey 2-3
USD/ton
3 USD/ton 2 USD/ton

27-30 USD/ton
33-38 USD/ton 40-46 USD/ton
21-26 USD/ton
KONDISI SUPLAI
Saat itu di Indonesia terdapat 15 kapal batubara
(coal-carrier) tipe handy-max kapasitas 30.000 ton
dan 10 tipe Panamax dengan kapasitas 40.000 ton.
Sementara jumlah kapal tongkang jumlahnya sekitar
917 unit kapal dengan kapasitas 130-140 juta ton per
tahunnya. Pola kontrak bentuknya sekitar enam
bulanan dengan kapasitas kontrak rata-rata sekitar
300.000 ton dengan sekitar tipe logistik Tongkang
dan Coal-Carrier.
KONDISI SUPLAI:
OPERASIONAL
Secara biaya, nilai sewa (time-charter) kapal tipe
Coal-Carrier Panamax sekitar 30.000 USD per hari
sedangkan kapal tongkang sekitar 800 -1.000 USD
per harinya.
Kecepatan tongkang eksis untuk kapasitas 300 ft
rata-rata sekitar 4-6 knots, sedangkan untuk Coal-
Carrier sekitar 10-11 knots. Jarak tempuh antara
Kalimantan-Jawa sekitar 200-300 nautical mile.
Dengan lama bongkar-muat sekitar 3000-5000 ton
per Jam.
PERTIMBANGAN
SUPLAI-DEMAND
Bagaimana pertimbangan Supply-Demand
armada batubara domestik dengan skenario:
1.Mengikuti pola logistik yang ada
2.Merekomendasikan formasi tongkang batu
bara nasional
3.Berapa jumlah, tipe, kecepatan, dan pola
dan pola jasa yang bisa direkomendasikan
Permintaan dan Suplai Transportasi Laut PROSES UMUM DESAIN
KAPAL

Formulasi Konsep

Kajian Desain Preliminary Karakteristik rute dan kargo

Desain Teknis Estimasi Biaya

Evaluasi ekonomik berbagai alternatif

Seleksi desain akhir Diskusi dengan pemilik kapal

Desain detail teknis Diskusi dengan


galangan kapal
Rancangan Umum

Prosedur desain dengan komputer

Prosedur penentuan Seleksi bentuk Susunan Automasi/Listrik/


konstruksi lambung Permesinan Perpipaan

Sistem Bank Data


propulsi
Cek Kalkulasi
Estimasi Biaya Sub-Kontraktor Data
Hidrostatik, trim dan stabilitas, freeboard,
kapasitas, powering, kekuatan memanjang, Desain Galangan
kekuatan lokal, vibrasi, olah gerak kapal, Persetujuan badan
manoeuvring klas
Desain Produksi

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