1st NATIONAL WORKSHOP

Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon

Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia

Global and Mongolia

Climate Change and it’s
projections for 21st Century
Sarantuya.G
Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology
Changes in temperature, sea level and
Northern hemisphere snow cover
Observed changes in (a) global average
surface temperature, (b) global average
sea level from tide gauge (blue) and
satellite (red) data and (c) Northern
Hemisphere snow cover for March-April.

The global surface air mean temperature

has increased by 0.74°C during the last
100 years (1906 to 2005). The linear
warming trend over the last 50 years
(0.13°C per decade) is nearly twice that
for the last 100 years. The total
temperature increase from 1850–1899 to
2001–2005 is 0.76°C. Eleven of the last
twelve years (1995–2006) rank among the
12 warmest years in the instrumental
record of global surface temperature
(since 1850).
 Changes in greenhouse gases

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide over the last 10,000 years
(large panels) and since 1750 (inset panels)
Global and Continental Temperature
Change
Äýëõèéí àãààðûí äóíäàæ òåìïåðàòóðûí ººð÷ëºëò, с¿¿ëèéí
150 æèëä

Warmest 12 years:
1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,
2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
 Climate of the country:
Generally, climate is continental, there are large amplitude of temperature,
distinct 4 seasons and much sun shine duration and clear sky

6
Temperature
50
3
Annual temperature varies between from –
0
9.0 0C to +8.5 0C.
-3
45 Cold region-mountainous and river valley
-6
Cool region-steppe and Gobi
-9
90 95 100 105 110 115 120 Warm region-Desert
-12
Annual mean temperature, 0C. Coldest month is January and its
temperature is from -15 0C to -340C.
450 Warmest month is July and its temperature
400
50 is from +150C to 300C
350
300
250
Precipitation
45 200 300-600 mm in mountainous area
150
150-300 mm in the forest steppe and
100
75 steppe
90 95 100 105 110 115 120 50
50-150 mm Gobi and desert area
25

Annual precipitation, mm.

GHG concentration at global and regional scale

~375 ppm ~360 ppm

390
385
380
375
370
CO2, ppm

365
360
355
350 Ýðäýíý ñóì, Äîðíîãîâü àéìàã
345
340
19…

19…

19…

19…

19…

19…

19…

19…

20…

20…

20…

20…
 The Greenhouse gas emissions in Mongolia

Four main GHGs: Carbon dioxide -CO2, Methane-CH4, Nitrous oxide- N2O and
Hydrofluorocarbons- NFCs
Mongolia’s net GHG emissions: 1990 – 22532, ↓1995 – 14850, ↓2000 – 14253, ↑2006 -
15620

8
 Observation and Research in Mongolia
Climate Systematic Observation Networks:
Currently, 120 operational weather stations in Mongolia are working according to the
World Meteorological Organization’s guidelines and procedures, monitoring and
measuring the air pressure, atmosphere and soil temperatures, air humidity, rainfall,
wind velocities, snowfall, depth (when snow) and other weather phenomena for 8
times a day.

Location of the Meteorological Observation Stations.

 Present Climate Change:
3.0

Annual temperature is
2.0
increased by 2.10C since 1940,
1.0
especially there was happened
0.0 continuously warm years after
-1.0 1990 and intensity of warming
-2.0
in this period is very high
compare to other periods.
-3.0
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Climate change trend over Mongolia since 1940-2007

a. Annual mean temperature, degree C
100

80

60 Annual precipitation is
40
decreased by 7% compare to
20

0 climate normal since 1940.

-20
Since 2000, consecutive dry
-40

-60
years are still continuing in the
-80
country
-100
1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Climate change trend over Mongolia since 1940-2007

b. Annual precipitation amount, mm
HISTORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate of future projection of Mongolia
It is projected that annual mean temperature will continue to increase in the future.
For example, areas where temperature is high than 60C, will be occupied almost whole
country in the end of this century.

9
A2 B1 50

7 6
45

3
5
90 95 100 105 110 115 120
0
3 1961-1990
-3

1 50 -6

-9
-1 45

-12
90 95 100 105 110 115 120
-3
1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 2090 2071-2100
Annual temperature projection by HadCM3 model Patterns of annual temperature projection, 0C
under the GHG scenarios, 0C
 Future Climate Change in Mongolia
a) b)

a) Annual mean temperature and b) Annual total precipitation time

series estimated by HadCM3 model, 1900-2099

the climate change time series values within 1900-1999 period as well as projected time
series within 2000-2099 are being given by depending on world population growth, socio-
economic and technology development.
 Future Climate Change in Mongolia
a) b)

a) Winter Mean Temperature and b) Winter Precipitation Time Series estimated by HadCM3 model, 1900-2099

a) b)

a) Summer Mean Temperature and b) Summer Precipitation Time Series estimated by HadCM3 model, 1900-2099
Climate of future projection of Mongolia
According to climate change projection, it is indicated that winter is becoming more mild
and snowy, and summer is getting hot and dry

Seasons Temperature change , 0C Precipitation change, %

2011-2030 2046-2065 2080-2099 2011-2030 2046-2065 2080-2099

Annual A2 1.0 2.7 5.0 2 9 15

A1B 0.9 3 4.6 0 7 16

B1 0.8 2.1 3.1 3 6 11

Winter A2 0.7 2.3 4.2 14 19 55

A1B 0.2 2.5 3.8 0 23 41

B1 0.2 1.6 3.0 7 14 32

Summer A2 1.1 3.1 6.3 -2 4 7

A1B 1.4 3.6 5.6 -4 3 11

B1 1.2 2.7 3.7 2 0 8

 Land Surface Changes Using Satellite Data
In 1992 in 2002

• Water surface decreased by 38%

• Areas without grass (or barren)
increased by 46%
• Forest area decreased by more than
26%.
• 78.2% -desertification
 Climate Change Impacts and
Vulnerabilities
Changes in Permafrost Index

Area without
peramafrost

Currently permafrost area covers 65.6%

of total area of Mongolia. It is projected
that permafrost area will be decreased
by 26.1% in 2020, by 17.1% in 2050
and 5.7% in 2080.
 Glacier

Vertical Distribution of Change in Air Temperature

During the observation period, the level of glacier melting is 54 cm in 2004 and 89 cm
in 2005 and the sum of daily average air positive temperature is 96.20C and 181.60C
respectively. From here, the melting According to the calculation of the temperature
change, the glacier melting in Tsambagarav Mountain will increase by 131cm in 2010-
2039, 371 cm in 2040-2069, and739 cm in 2070-2099. Accordingly, there is high
chance that snow cap with about 50meter depth will completely melt by 2040, within
100 meter depth will completely melt by2050-2060, with a 200 meter depth will
completely melt by 2070-2080, and with a 300meter depth will completely melt by
2090.
 Water Resources
Resources Mongolia has limited water resources. Mongolia has 599 cubic kilometers of
water, including of 500 cubic kilometers in lakes and90 cubic kilometers of salt water.

Multiyear Information on Mongolian Surface Water Resource

 Natural Disaster

Multiyear Tendency of Atmospheric-Convection-

Related Natural Disasters
 Ус, цаг агаарын аюултай үзэгдэлийн давтагдалыг
төрөл тус бүрээр нь сүүлийн 2 арван жилээр
харьцуулсан байдал
120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Хүчтэй салхи Их áîðîî Уруйн үер Аÿíãà öàõèëãààí Èõ õ¿éòýí Õ¿éòýí áîðîî øàð óñíû ¿åð
шуурга
1988-1998 1999-2008

Сүүлийн 20 жилийн байдлаар хамгийн олон удаа ажиглагдсан аюултай үзэгдэл нь хүчтэй
салхи шуурга байгаа хэдий ч сүүлийн 10 жилд буюу 1999-2008 онд нөөлөг салхи, уруйн үер,
мөндөр, аянга цахилгаан гэх мэт конвекцийн гаралтай аюултай үзэгдэлүүдийн давтагдал эрс
ихэссэн байна.
 Climate Change Impacts and
Vulnerabilities
Changes in Number of Days with Snow Cover
2020 2050

Area without
snow cover or areas with
2080 annual mean temperature
over 00C.

Climate models projected that

numbers of days with snow covers
will be decreased significanly and
snow covers will stay only in
mountain areas.
 Climate Change Impacts and
Vulnerabilities
Changes in Snow Cover Melting Dates

Áàðóóí òóðóóí Ñ ¿õáààòàð

9-May 14-Apr

4-May 4-Apr
29-Apr
25-Mar
24-Apr
15-Mar
19-Apr
5-Mar
14-Apr
23-Feb
9-Apr
13-Feb
4-Apr

30-Mar 3-Feb

25-Mar 24-J an
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Õóæèð ò Õàëõãî ë
14-Apr 4-May
4-Apr 24-Apr

25-Mar 14-Apr
4-Apr
15-Mar
25-Mar
5-Mar
15-Mar
23-F eb
5-Mar
13-F eb
23-Feb
3-F eb 13-Feb
24-J an 3-Feb
14-J an 24-J an
4-J an 14-J an
25-D ec 4-J an
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
 Fire burning at distance, Batsumber
soum of Tuv aimag. June, 2007

400 36 8
350 323
300 26 4
250 2 19 2 16
200 177 16 4
12 9 1 26 1 2 0 132 1 27 115
150 1 04 1 01 1 0 1
100 65 76 60 79
50
0
 Dust and Sand Storms (Yellow Dust)

Geographical dispersion studies of

annual average amount show that dust
storm occurrences took place for less than
5 days a year in Khangai, Khovsgol and
Khentii mountainous areas; in the desert
areas, 30-37 days; and in the Great Lake
Depression,10-17 days.
Geographical Distribution of number of days Three major regions, namely, Altain
with Dust Storm
farther Gobi, Red lake of Umnugobi and
Zamiin Subareas are identified as high
frequency zones for dust storm
occurrences. In addition to this, the dust
storm occurrence and its geographical
dispersion is closely related to
geographical dispersion of days with
massive wind and the surface soil
characteristics of the country. In other
words, sandstorms frequently occur in the
regions with strong winds.
Geographical Distribution of number of days
with Drifting Dust Storm
DUST STORM NETWORK
 Тоосон үүл
MODIS хиймэл дагуулын мэдээгээр

Тоос
 The future Climate scenarios:
 Air temperature will be increased by 2.8
2.8--5.0C
- summer temperature 2 to 3.5C
- winter temperature 1.0 to 2.4C
 Precipitation amount in the period up to 2040 will
not have remarkable changes.
- increase 7-
7-8% by 2080
- winter prec.might be increase 16.5-
16.5-39.0%
 Intensive warming might occur in western and
central region of the country.
 Climate Change Impacts and
Vulnerabilities
Climate change in 21st Century will have serious adverse
impacts on biophysical components and socio-economic
sectors :
 Frequency and magnitude of climate extremes and
disasters
 Natural zones
 Grassland Ecosystem
 Permafrost, Glaciers and Snow Cover
 Water Resources
 Arable Farming
 Animal Husbandry
 Human Health and Social Welfares