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December 1983
Federal Reserve Bank o f Cleveland
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Abstract
I. I n t r o d u c t i o n
where
O (B) = I
%P - - -1
O B - ... - CJ
2'P
BP,
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t e n t a t i v e model i s modified and steps two and three are repeated. This
process continues u n t i l a s a t i s f a c t o r y model i s obtained.
The model estimated using the not- seasonally adjusted data i s given i n
t a b l e 1. The model estimated using seasonally adjusted data i s given i n
tab1e 2. When the models are i n the general form, they are d i f f i c u l t t o
i n t e r p r e t because there may be i n t e r a c t i o n s among t h e autoregressive and
moving average operators. Consequently, we express the models i n the moving
average form as shown i n t a b l e 3. This leads t o the f o l l o w i n g i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s .
The P r i c e o f Goods. For the not-seasonal l y adjusted data, the imp1i c i t
d e f l a t o r i s independent o f the r e s t o f t h e model i n c l u d i n p contemporaneous
correlations. According t o these estimates, i n f l a t i o n can be modeled as a
u n i v a r i a t e ARIMA model w i t h a f i r s t - o r d e r autoregressive and a f i r s t - o r d e r
moving average term. This model suggests t h a t information from the money
supply, c r e d i t aggregates, t h e i n t e r e s t r a t e and r e a l output w i l l n o t h e l p
p r e d i c t changes i n the p r i c e l e v e l once we have taken account o f information
i n the h i s t o r y o f the p r i c e l e v e l .
This s i t u a t i o n changes dramatically when we examine the same equation from
the model estimated w i t h seasonally adjusted data. I n t h i s model, i n f l a t i o n
responds p o s i t i v e l y t o 1agged money supply, negatively t o 1agged c r e d i t , and
(a1though weakly) negatively t o lagged i n t e r e s t rates. A l l o f these
r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n v o l v e decaying lagged patterns because o f the autoregressive
terms i n the model.
While the p o s i t i v e dependence o f i n f l a t i o n on money supply growth w i l l be
encouraging t o some, we would have more confidence i n t h i s sesul t i f i t was
evident i n the not-seasonally adjusted model. Part o f the model n o t captured
i n the parameter matrices i s the estimate o f t h e c o r r e l a t i o n s between
contemporaneous errors. I n neither case i s there a s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n
between the e r r o r s from the i n f l a t i o n equation and the other errors. 3
M-1.
- The second equation determines t h e money supply. I n t a b l e 1 we can
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s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t from c r e d i t s t a r t i n g a t l a g one.
Credit. The t h i r d equation determines c r e d i t , t h a t i s , t h e amount o f
funds r a i s e d by the nonfinancial sector. I n t a b l e 3, we see t h a t
not-seasonally adjusted c r e d i t depends on lagged M-1 growth, o n the i n t e r e s t
r a t e 1agged 3 quarters and on a f i r s t - o r d e r moving average error. I n a1 1
these "quantity" equations, M-1, NFD, and GNP72, the seasonal model involved a
fourth- order difference and a fourth- order moving average parameter. The
contemporaneous e r r o r i n the c r e d i t equation was s i g n i f i c a n t l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h
the e r r o r s from the M-1 and the r e a l output equations.
The c r e d i t equation estimated using seasonally adjusted data d i f i e r s from
the equation i n t a b l e 1 i n t h a t c r e d i t does n o t depend on past M-1 o r past
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Three time series models o f the money supply were estimated using both
seasonally and not-seasonal l y adjusted data over t h e period from the f i r s t
quarter o f 1959 t o the f o u r t h quarter o f 1979, and forecasts were generated
over the period from the f i r s t quarter o f 1980 t o the t h i r d quarter o f 1982.
Also, the r e s i d u a l s from both the b i v a r i a t e and 5- variate models f o r M-1 had
j u s t barely nonsignificant correlations a t l a g 8 . Thus, these models would
have a moving average term o f l a g 8, which would n o t d i f f e r s u b s t a n t i a l l y from
t h a t o f t h e u n i v a r i a t e model i f t h i s parameter were included. Thus, t h e
models are q u i t e s i m i l i a r .
The r e s u l t s o f forecasting using t h e seasonally adjusted models are
presented i n tab1e 7. The resul t s f o r the one-step-ahead forecasts agree w i t h
the statement t h a t the u n i v a r i a t e model should be outperformed by both the
b i v a r i a t e and the 5- variate models and t h a t the 5- variate model shoul d do
b e t t e r than t h e b i v a r i a t e model. A1 so, these RMSEs are smaller than those o f
the not-seasonally adjusted models. T h i s may be due t o the f a c t t h a t when the
data was seasonally adjusted, an attempt was made t o a d j u s t f o r the e f f e c t s o f
c r e d i t c o n t r o l .5 We repeated the t h r e e a d d i t i o n a l forecasting experiments
from above. The r e s u l t s f o r the n-step-ahead forecasts from the f o u r t h
quarter o f 1979 are r a t h e r strange i n t h a t the u n i v a r i a t e model i s much b e t t e r
than t h e other two models. This r e s u l t i s n o t t r u e when forecasting from the
f i r s t quarter o f 1980 where the 5 - v a r i a t e model i s much b e t t e r . Examining the
f i n a l r e s u l t , we see t h a t indeed, even the seasonally adjusted models forecast
b e t t e r past the c r e d i t control period.
Overall, these forecasting r e s u l t s from t h i s s h o r t period do n o t
d i s t i n g u i s h sharply between the three time series models. This may r e f l e c t ,
i n part, the p a r t i c u l a r l y v o l a t i l e p e r i o d over which the forecasts were run.
Besides the c r e d i t controls, there was a1so a change i n Federal Reserve
operating procedures j u s t before the s t a r t o f the forecasting period. This
change has been associated w i t h higher variance i n both i n t e r e s t r a t e s and M-1 .
One way t o get around t h i s problem would be t o "backcast" i n t o t h e 1950s
using t h e estimated parameters o f the model. I t may also be i n s t r u c t i v e t o
determining the advantage o f 1arger time series model s because output depends
on more variables i n the system than does M-1.
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V. Conclusion
Footnotes
5. Pierce and Cleveland (1981) discuss the method used by the Federal Reserve
t o a d j u s t f o r the e f f e c t s o f c r e d i t control.
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D D D D D
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Seasonally adjusted
- .
data
r 1
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UNIVAR IATE:
BIVARIATE:
- .012B2 qt
5- VAR IATE :
- --
Mean E r r o r RMS E
a. One-step-ahead f o r e c a s t 1980:IQ t o 1 9 8 2 : I I I Q
b. n-Step-ahead f o r e c a s t f r o m 1979:IVQ t o 1 9 8 2 : I I I Q
d. One-step-ahead f o r e c a s t w i t h i n t e r v e n t i o n from
1979 : I V Q t o 1982 :IIIQ
References
Akaike, H. " S t a t i s t i c a l p r e d i c t o r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , " Annal s o f the I n s t i t u t e o f
S t a t i s t i c a l Mathematics, 21 (1969a), pp. 203-217.
Granger, C. W. J. , and Paul Newbold. Forecasting Economic Time Series, New York:
O'Reilly, Dan, --
e t al. "Macro Forecasting w i t h Mu1t i v a r i a t e ARIMA," Data
Resources Review o f the U.S. Economy, August 1981, pp. 1.29-1.33.
Zel 1ner, Arnol d, and Franz Palm. "Time Series Analysis and Simul taneous
Equation Econometric Model s," Journal o f Econometrics, vol . 2, no. 1 (May