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Total risk Management

A simple 5-step process

Rev: 1.0 07/09/08


Table of contents

TOTAL Risk Management (TRM).............................................................................................. 3


1.1 The TRM process..................................................................................................... 3
1.1.1 Step 1: Recognise the problems Hazards and associate the risks........ 3
1.1.2 Step 2: Evaluate i.e. qualify and quantify risks. ......................................... 3
1.1.3 Step 3: Prioritise risks based on results from step 2. ............................... 3
1.1.4 Step 4: State mitigations to be initiated to reduce risks. .......................... 3
1.1.5 Step 4: Review process to learn and improve............................................ 3
1.1.6 Risk metrics and Matrix evaluation ............................................................. 4
1.2 Typical risk management sheets generated ............................................................ 7
TOTAL RISK MANAGEMENT (TRM)

1.1 THE TRM PROCESS

The total risk management process TRM presented in this document is a


simple 5 step process as outlined below.

1.1.1 Step 1: Recognise the problems Hazards and associate the risks.

Step 1; Recognise and analyse the anticipated problems (Hazards) and associated the risks
predicted throughout the entire projects phases. (e.g. At Kick off meeting, WORG, and other well
construction, planning meetings.)

1.1.2 Step 2: Evaluate i.e. qualify and quantify risks.

Step 2; Evaluates (i.e. qualifies and quantifies) risks based on operating knowledge,
experience, uncertainties, and/or based on data that exists. (Ref. Figures 1 & 2.)

1.1.3 Step 3: Prioritise risks based on results from step 2.

Step3; Prioritises risks identified. This is normally compiled on a wells phase basis. E.g.
Mobilisation, conductor phase, BOP/riser, etc

1.1.4 Step 4: State mitigations to be initiated to reduce risks.

Step 4; Captures the mitigations to be implemented to remove, prevent and/or reduce risks.
(Note: These sheets are in reality compiled from project onset, and worked through the course of each
wells planning process. The intent being to assess if risks can be sufficiently managed before the
executable program is commenced.)

1.1.5 Step 4: Review process to learn and improve.

Step 5; To utilise the output from steps 1-4 through the course of the wells execution. At the
end of the well to then complete the risk management process. E.g. Discuss lessons learned
for use in future projects.
1.1.6 Risk metrics and Matrix evaluation

Figure 1; Risk metrics


Risk Metrics Risk Level Colour Code
1 to 3 Low

3 to 9 Medium

12 High

Figure 2; Risk Matrix evaluation


High (4)
High ALARP High / medium High / High
< 1 in 2
4 8 12
wells
Medium /
Probability (P)

Medium (3) Medium Low Medium / High


Medium
1 in 5wells 3 9
6
Low (2) Low Low Low / Medium Low / High
1 in 10 wells 2 4 6

ALARP (1) ALARP Low ALARP Medium ALARP High


1 in 30wells 1 2 3

Risk metrics Low Impact (1) Medium Impact High Impact (3)
Probability (P) x < 1hrs, 1bbl spill, (2) >1day, 10bbls,
Consequence (C ) 10,000 > 6hrs, 5bbl, 60,000 250,000

Consequence (C)
Figure 3; Risk management process steps 1& 2

STEP 1; STEP 2;
Recognise/Analyse Determine and evaluate
Consequence
Hazards (Problems) / Risks Probability PxC Management
Cost () Time (Hrs) QHSE
IMPACT IMPACT IMPACT
1. Known Problem / Hazards. 1 1 1 - 1 Easy
Identifiable Risk 1 1 1 1 - 1 Moderate
Risk 2
1 2 1 - 2 Moderate
Risk 3

Figure 4; Risk management process steps 3& 4

STEP 3; Rank and file STEP 4; Plans & Mitigations to be initiated


RISK RISK MAGNITUDE OWNER MANAGER PLANS / MITIGATIONS
NO.
(i.e. Probability x consequence) (Responsible) (Accountable)

3 Red Baron / Drilling Supt. QA cert for all tools. Pre-assembled and tested onshore.
OPERATOR Operating procedures reviewed and provided for rig
supv supervisors. Fishing hand to be provided to rig etc..
4

2
Figure 5; Risk management process step 5

STEP 5; Close out process review, learn improve TRM process.


RISK NO. MITIGATING ACTIONS MEASURES COMMENTS
Ref.xxxx QA cert for all tools. Pre-assembled and tested onshore. Insert here any particular aspect that went better, where loss
Operating procedures reviewed and provided for rig supervisors. occurred and/or lessons learned.
Fishing hand to be provided to rig etc.
1.2 TYPICAL RISK MANAGEMENT SHEETS GENERATED

In the course of drilling a well, the operational outline of a well can be broken
down into key phases of task and activities as illustrated below. e.g.

1. Rig start up
2. Mobilisation
3. Conductor drilling
4. Conductor casing
5. Conductor cementing
6. Running BOPs and marine riser.
7. Geological risks and uncertainties that exist
8. Drilling 12 wellbore
9. Tripping wellbore
10. Running and cementing casing.
11. Drilling 8-1/2 wellbore
12. Tripping 8-1/2 wellbore
13. Evaluating 8-1/2 wellbore
14. Running and cementing 7 liner
15. Suspending wellbore.
16. De-mobilise rig.

Based on such a phased approach the total risk management TRM process
can then be conducted for each key phased step with a series of Tornado
charts being generated as illustrated in examples that follow.

These sheets can be then used at the rig-site by personnel prior to the work
being conducted, i.e. to review, re-assess the risks and mitigations prior to
executing each set of tasks and activities. Where often changes or improving
actions or mitigations needed, based on the actual set of circumstances or
conditions that would exist may be required.

Note: This being viewed as perhaps the most essential component of any risk
management process as a risk is a live and genuine risk until the task in hand
has actually been successfully delivered at minimal loss.

There-after the risk still being viewed as a continuous process e.g. where any
lesson learned can be reflected next time a similar task and risk assessment
is or has to be conducted.
Table 1; 12 wellbore

RISK RISK MAGNITUDE OWNER MANAGER PLANS / MITIGATIONS


NO.
(i.e. Probability x consequence) (Responsible) (Accountable)
Hole Instability DSV / Geol / Co Rep 1. Optimize mud weight with respect to fracture constraints
1 2. Minimize open hole time in reactive formations
Co Rep / Rig Sup / 3. Optimize mud properties to ensure good filter cake formulation
Driller / Mud Eng / 4. Use of OBM with good fluid loss control & filtration properties
(9) Dir Driller / SLS 5. Take good precaution while stage up pumps at start of drilling
6. Knowledge of borehole pressures required for wellbore stability
7. Stay within managed pressure windows.
Hole Cleaning DSV / Co Rep / Co Rep 1. Adhere to recommended drilling parameters, mud properties / rheology
2 program, recommendations from hydraulic pre well model
Rig Sup / Driller / 2. Avoid Instantaneous ROP if cuttings removal is a problem
Mud Eng / Dir 3. Closely monitor ECD at high instantaneous penetration rates
Driller / SLS / 4. Circulate cuttings past BHA before connections.
(9) 5. Wiper trip only as hole condition dictates
6. Monitor all other hole cleaning parameters trend:
Changes in Torque & Drag trend
Reduction / inconsistency in cutting returns over shakers
Abnormal increase / decrease in ECD trend

Wellbore Quality DSV / Co Rep / Co Rep / Dir Driller 1. Minimize flow rate in the clay group to avoid wash out
6 2. Monitor cuttings shape, size & quality trend
Rig Sup / Driller / 3. Stop and circulate hole clean with rotation (if drags continually increase and
(6) Mud Engineer / Dir cutting beds are suspected)
Driller / SLS 4. Implement correct drilling practice
5. Ensure good mud filter cake forming properties

Wellbore DSV / Co Rep / 1. See hole cleaning above


7 2. Agree connections and POOH procedure and implement at rig site
difficulties Geologists / Co Dir Driller 3. Avoid back reaming during tripping and connections (unless necessary)
Rep / 4. Control pipe movement (mechanical or hydraulic shocks may cause cuttings
Rig Sup / Driller / to avalanche)
(6) Mud Engineer / Dir 5. Control tripping rates (avoid pulling rapidly into cutting beds or causing excess
Driller / SLS swab/surge)
6. Stuck pipe refresher training for drill crews
7. Avoid leaving drill string static for longer period e.g during connections
RISK RISK MAGNITUDE OWNER MANAGER PLANS / MITIGATIONS
NO.
(i.e. Probability x consequence) (Responsible) (Accountable)
Bit risks DSV / Co Rep / Rig Co rep / 1. Reduce drilling parameters through stringers
3 Sup / Driller / Dir 2. Follow recommended PDC drill-out drilling practice through shoe track
Dir Driller 3. Follow correct reaming practices if reaming becomes necessary
Driller
4. Avoid RPMs around modeled natural frequencies Critical RPMs
(6) 5. Designed for this well with BHI / DDS input to drill sequence. BHA
components sent out to rig as contingencies
Directional DSV / Co Rep / Rig Co Rep / 1. Bit / BHA optimization, selection and design.
4 2. Best operational practices.
control (6) Sup / Driller / Dir Dir Driller 3. Following recommended operating parameters (WOB/RPM)
Driller
4. Regular surveying.
5. Understanding formation tendencies.

Downhole DSV / Co Rep / MWD 1. Take cautions while drill known hard / soft interbedded rocks
5 2. Implement anti-vibration drilling practices
vibration (4) Rig Sup / Driller 3. Install vibrations traffic light system for driller
Dir Driller / MWD 4. Train / make aware drilling crew of vibration issues
5. Use down hole vibration control techniques such as:
Negative drill break to mitigate lateral vibrations
WOB/RPM parameter combination to mitigate severe stick slip
Wellhead ROV / Co Rep OPERATOR / ROV 1 Visual inspection prior to skidding
8 2. Clean out gasket profile
condition (2) 3 Clean post tops
4 Clean wellhead area if required.
5. Set wear bushing riserless.
Table 2; Drilling 8 1/2 wellbore

RISK RISK MAGNITUDE OWNER MANAGER PLANS / MITIGATIONS


NO.
(i.e. Probability x consequence) (Responsible) (Accountable)
Hole Instability DSV / Geol / Co Rep 1. Optimize mud weight with respect to fracture constraints
1 2. Optimize mud properties to ensure good filter cake formulation
Co Rep / Rig Sup / 3. Use of OBM with good fluid loss control & filtration properties
(9) Driller / Mud Eng / 4. Take good precaution while stage up/down pumps, control rotational effects.
Dir Driller / SLS 5. Knowledge of borehole pressures required for wellbore stability
6. Stay within managed pressure windows.
Hole Cleaning DSV / Co Rep / Co Rep 1. Adhere to recommended drilling parameters, mud properties / rheology
2 program, recommendations from from pre well model
Rig Sup / Driller / 2. Avoid Instantaneous ROP if cuttings removal is a problem
Mud Eng / Dir 3. Closely monitor ECD at high instantaneous penetration rates
Driller / SLS 4. Circulate cuttings past BHA before connections.
5. Wiper trip only as hole condition dictates
6. Monitor all other hole cleaning parameters trend:
7. Changes in Torque & Drag trend
(9) 8. Reduction / inconsistency in cutting returns over shakers
9. Abnormal increase / decrease in ECD trend

Down-hole Vibration DSV / Co Rep / MWD 1. Take cautions while drill known hard / soft interbedded rocks
6 2. Implement anti-vibration drilling practices
Rig Sup / Driller 3. Install vibrations traffic light system for driller
Dir Driller / MWD 4. Train / make aware drilling crew of vibration issues
5. Use down hole vibration control techniques such as:
(9) 6. Negative drill break to mitigate lateral vibrations
7. WOB/RPM parameter combination to mitigate severe stick slip

Wellbore Quality DSV / Co Rep / Co Rep / Dir Driller 1. Minimize flow rate in the clay group to avoid wash out
7 2. Monitor cuttings shape, size & quality trend
Rig Sup / Driller / 3. Stop and circulate hole clean with rotation (if drags continually increase and
Mud Engineer / Dir cutting beds are suspected)
Driller / SLS 4. Implement correct drilling practice
(6) 5. Ensure good mud filter cake forming properties

Premature Bit Wear DSV / Co Rep / Rig Co rep / 1. Reduce drilling parameters while encountering the Chalk group, precisely the
4 Sup / Driller / Dir top of the Ekofisk.
Dir Driller 2. Follow recommended PDC drill-out drilling practice
Driller
3. Follow correct reaming practices if reaming becomes necessary
(6) 4. Avoid RPMs around modeled natural frequencies Critical RPMs
5. See vibrations above.
RISK RISK MAGNITUDE OWNER MANAGER PLANS / MITIGATIONS
NO.
(i.e. Probability x consequence) (Responsible) (Accountable)
Directional control DSV / Co Rep / Rig Co Rep / 1. Bit / BHA optimization, selection and design.
5 Sup / Driller / Dir 2. Best operational practices.
Dir Driller 3. Following recommended operating parameters (WOB/RPM)
Driller
4. Regular surveying.
5. Understanding formation tendencies.
Wellbore DSV / Co Rep / 1. See hole cleaning above
8 2. Agree connections and POOH procedures to implement at rig site
problems Geologists / Co Dir Driller 3. Avoid back reaming during tripping and connections (unless necessary)
Rep / 4. Control pipe movement (mechanical or hydraulic shocks may cause cuttings
Rig Sup / Driller / to avalanche)
(4) Mud Engineer / Dir 5. Control tripping rates (avoid pulling rapidly into cutting beds or causing excess
Driller / SLS swab/surge)
6. Stuck pipe refresher training for drill crews
7. Avoid leaving drill string static for longer period e.g during connections
High Torque DSV / Co Rep / Rig Co Rep / 1. Use of X-treme drilling system, properly designed Bits/BHA.
2 2. Pre engineering modeling and analysis to identify critical speeds, parameters
(3) Sup / Driller / Dir Dir Driller 3. Use of Oil based mud with adequate lubricity
Driller
4. See hole instability
5. See hole cleaning
Table 3; Geological risks, uncertainties and data acquisition

RISK RISK MAGNITUDE OWNER MANAGER PLANS / MITIGATIONS


NO.
(i.e. Probability x consequence) (Responsible) (Accountable)

Ops geo / Mud


Wellbore Productivity Drill and trip in one run. Do not drill too overbalanced and use appropriate mud
4 9 eng / Co Rep / OPERATOR additives. Avoid excessive circulating, rotating, reaming in reservoir.
Formation Damage
Drillers
Updating Geomechanical model. Predicting effective mud weight requirements
for each well or sidetrack. Picking locations at least risk. Avoiding sidetrack
trajectories running close to the original well bore, especially near faulted zones.
Identifying faulted zones in well and sidetrack trajectories in the overburden and
Ops geo / Mud OPERATOR / planning to meet them square on Adopting the current practices on connections,
5 Wellbore condition 9 eng / Co Rep / Noble / 3rd tripping, hole cleaning developed to deal with failure in Horda claystones.
Drillers Parties The current understanding of the pore pressures in the overburden has the 12.5
ppg section in the overburden meaning that the swab down to limit is always in
excess of 12.5ppg ( set by pore pressure not instability in the 'non faulted' and
low inclination wells)

1 Geological Uncertainty (8) 8 Ops Geo Subsurface CVP Side-track if formation is poor quality

Optimize well-bore, ensure wire-line team is prepared


6 Wireline Difficulties 6 Schlumberger Tools and equipment to cater for tapered wellbore.

3 Poor LWD Data 6 BHI Ensure tools correct/working and configured

7 Tool Failure 6 3rd Parties Backup tools available, clarify minimum LWD requirements

Not Meeting Ops geo / Mud


8 4 eng / Co Rep / CVP Sidetrack if formation is poor, or water wet/low pressure.
Objectives
Drillers
Inadequate/Poor Samples 1 Ops/Drilling Reduce ROP through reservoir
2
Table 4; Tripping wellbore

RISK RISK MAGNITUDE OWNER MANAGER PLANS / MITIGATIONS


NO.
(i.e. Probability x consequence) (Responsible) (Accountable)
1 Wellbore condition 4 Operator/Drilling Drl Supt / Eng Wellbore stability conducted. Use of extreme. Best practices to be applied
throughout all operations. (While making connections, drilling/tripping)
contractor

4 Pressure effects / stability 4 Operator/Drilling Drl Supt / Eng Pressure while drilling sub to be used. Best practices to be employed as per
drilling program.
contractor
5 Pack off 4 Operator/Drilling Drl Supt / Eng Pressure while drilling sub to be used. Best practices to be employed as per
drilling program.
contractor
3 Efficiency 2 Operator/Drilling Drl Supt / Eng Pre-job meetings, planning, preparing and organiusing for job ahead.
Discussing what can go wrong and having contingency plans in place.
contractor
2 Well control 2 Operator/Drilling Drl Supt / Eng Mud weight maintenance. Avoiding pressure and surge effects through pressure
management as applied above.
contractor
6 Torque drag 2 Operator/Drilling Drl Supt / Eng Drill a smooth wellbore and reduced torque and drag. BHA design and drilling
practices to be employed,
contractor
Table 5; 9 5/8 x 7 Casing running & cementing

RISK RISK MAGNITUDE OWNER MANAGER PLANS / MITIGATIONS


NO.
(i.e. Probability x consequence) (Responsible) (Accountable)

3 Pressure effects 4 Halliburton OPERATOR / Run T & D analysis, swab and surge to ensure safe running/pulling speeds pre-
determined. Monitor drag and return trends continuously.
Hbton

6 Cementing 4 Halliburton OPERATOR / Condition the well bore fluid / Reciprocate the pipe / Good centralization / use
of a two tapered plug system (fluid separation) / ensure continuous pumping
Isolation not Hbton
keep time dropping plugs to a minimum / spacer prepared in clean pit / mixing
achieved procedures followed / run a spacer / maximize pump rates / run opticem
simulations / run force 4 simulations (mud removal rates)

2 Wellbore 3 Drillers/Mud OPERATOR / In order to reduce the liner hitting the well bore centralization stand-off has
been kept to >80. The system is designed for circulation. Wellbore drag and
condition Eng/ DDs/ Noble
return volumes to be monitored and any deviation acted upon. E.g. Break
Comp Man. circulation and clean well until drags normal.

1 Tools eqpt 3 Halliburton OPERATOR / All equipment is maintained, assembled tested c/w charts in accordance with
procedures. Contingency equipment available. Ensure guide-shoe to aid entry
Hbton
into 8 wellbore is available to be run if needed.

5 Poor Cement 3 Halliburton OPERATOR / Laboratory testing with rig cement and additive samples / Drill water tested for
chloride level / clean pits for mix water or spacer prep / Pre job checks / tests
Slurry/Spacer Hbton
are all carried out. All cementing design are engineered based upon the
Design accuracy of the information provided from OPERATOR, i.e. casing
depths/weights, well inclination, temperatures, planned excess, mud
type/density, formation data - pore/frac gradient etcall have to be the most up

4 Direct 2 Halliburton OPERATOR / Accurately measure and control return and pumped volumes. If losses occur
continue cement job, set and test seal assembly. Ensure pressure differential
displacement Hbton
and step up graph prior to bump has been determined. If float not holding
to seawater maintain pressure until cement hardens. If inflow test on casing fails and well is
not flowing. RIH and displace to mud. If well is flowing, lubricate mud into well.
Table 6; Cleaning out wellbore

RISK RISK MAGNITUDE OWNER MANAGER PLANS / MITIGATIONS


NO.
(i.e. Probability x consequence) (Responsible) (Accountable)
Junk debris 6 OPERATOR OPERATOR 1. Direct displacement to seawater, combined with new casing and BOP/riser
1 clean up and dual scraper run etc will mitigate unwarranted Junk and debris
reps / Noble Reps/ Drl Supt
inside the well.
drillers / Eng
2. Pulling BOPs and marine riser and cleaning out on surface will eliminate
debris from this source.
3. Best practices running tools, hole covers, etc will mitigate this risk.

Not cleaning up 4 OPERATOR Drl Supt / Eng 1. Bit and scraper/brush run to ensure casing is brushed and scrapers.
2
reps / Noble 2. Use of clean up pills and sweeps to remove crud and solids from well and
drillers reducing turbidity to required levels before pumping clean brine.
3. Pit cleaning and quality checks in mud pit room to ensure brine clean.
4. Proper flushing of all surface and pumping line pipe-work

Eqpt problems 2 Operator/Drillin Drl Supt / Eng 1. Assure fit for purpose tools and equipment
3
g contractor 2. Check all ODs ID and tools dimensions and make ups prior to running.
3. Run what you need, do not overcomplicate BHAs / equipment.

Effiiciency 2 Operator/Drillin Drl Supt / Eng 1. Pre make up BHAs,


4
g contractor 2. Proper prior pre-planning, preparation and organization.
3. Communicate to all parties what is needed of them in a timely and proper
manner.
4. Run what you need, do not overcomplicate BHAs.
5. Execute activities offline where possible.
Tapered string 2 Operator/Drillin Drl Supt / Eng 1. Proper lead in for all tools and equipment being run.
5
g contractor 2. Drill a smooth transition between 12 and 8 wellbore.