University of Science and Technology of Southern Philippines

C.M. Recto Avenue, Lapasan, Cagayan de Oro City

Digital Signal Processing Application:

WEATHER FORECASTING

By:

Kenneth Q. Enderez
BSEcE 4B_D2
` Digital Signal Processing has operations on or analysis of signals in either discrete or
continuous time, to perform such useful operations on those signals. Signals include sound,
image, time measuring measurement values, sensor data, Example of those signal processing
are electrocardiogram(ECG) , electroencephalogram(EEG), control system signals,
telecommunication transmission such as radio signals and many others. Signals can either be
analog or digital electrical representations of time-varying or spatial-varying physical
quantities.

Discrete time signal processing is for sampled signals that are considered as defined
only at discrete points in time, and quantized time, but not in magnitude.

Analog discrete signal processing is a technology based on electronic devices such as

sample and hold circuits, analog time-division multiplexers, analog delay lines and analog
feedback shift registers. This technology was a predecessor of digital signal processing and
still being used for advanced processing of gigahertz signals.

Digital signal processing is for signals that have been digitized. Processing is done by
general-purpose computers or by digital circuits, field programmable gate arrays or
specialized digital signal processors. Typical arithmetical operations include fixed-point and
floating-point, real valued and complex-valued, multiplication and addition. Other typical
operations supported by the hardware are circular buffers and look-up tables. Example of
algorithm said above are the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), Finite Impulse Response (FIR),
Infinite Impulse Response (IIR) filter, Weiner filter and Kalman filter.

Weather forecasting is one of the application of science and technology to predict the
state of atmosphere for a future time and a given location. Human beings have attempted to
predict the weather informally for millennia, and formally since at least the nineteenth
century. Weather forecasting are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state
of the atmosphere and using scientific understanding of atmospheric process to project how
the atmosphere will change or evolve.

Weather forecasting is an exact science of data collecting, but interpretation of the

data collected can be difficult because of the chaotic nature of the factors that affect the
weather. These factors can follow generally recognized trends, but meteorologists understand
that many things can affect these trends. With the advent of computer models and satellite
imagery, weather forecasting has improved greatly. Since lives and livelihoods depend on
accurate weather forecasting, these improvements have helped not only the understanding of
weather, but how it affects living and non-living things on Earth.

Once all-human endeavour based mainly upon changes in barometer pressure, current
weather condition and sky condition, forecast models are now use to determine future
conditions. Human input is still required to pick the best forecast model to base the forecast
upon, which involves pattern recognition skills, telecommunication, knowledge of model
performance, and knowledge of model biases. The chaotic nature of atmosphere, the massive
computational power required to solve the equation that describe the atmosphere, error
involved in measuring the initial conditions, and an incomplete understanding of atmospheric
processes mean that forecast become less accurate as the difference in current time and the
time for which the forecast is being made increases. The uses of ensembles and model
consensus help narrow errors and pick the most likely outcome.

There are a variety of end uses to weather forecasts. Weather warnings are important
forecast because they are used to protect life and property. Weather forecasting depends on
the immediate availability of reliable data. Thus it is critical for meteorological center to have
the state of the art telecommunication system. Meteorological center is the one who received
data fom the satellite through their radar. Radar is used to locate precipitation, calculate its
motion, and estimate its type (rain, snow, hail etc.). Modern weather radars are mostly pulse-
Doppler radars, capable of detecting the motion of rain droplets in addition to the intensity of
the precipitation. Both types of data can be analysed to determine the structure of storms and
their potential to cause severe weather. MORCOM is a world leader in supply of
telecommunication system especially for the ingestion, processing and dissemination of
weather data.

Data assimilation (DA) is a method used in the weather forecasting process in which
observations of the current (and possibly, past) weather are combined with a previous
forecast for that time to produce the meteorological `analysis'; the best estimate of the current
state of the atmosphere.

Modern weather predictions aid in timely evacuations and potentially save lives and property
damage.
More generally, Data assimilation is a method to use observations in the forecasting process.
 Accuracy of weather forecast in time

Weather forecasting is not accurate as we thought, there are forecasting that is less accurate,
moderately accurate and also there is almost accurate it is according to their ranges. The types
of forecasting range or predictions below will explain the accuracy of each of it. However,
weather accuracy depends on ones location.

Forecast Range/Prediction Types:

A short-range forecast is a weather forecast prediction made between one and seven
days before it happen.

Medium range forecasts are for a prediction period usually given between one week
and four weeks in advance.

Long-range forecasts are for a prediction period greater than one month or between
one month and one year in advance.

Advantages and Disadvantages

Advantage Disadvantage

Farmers can already know when to Weather is extremely difficult to forecast

plant or harvest their crops. correctly.

Regions can be evacuated if large It is expensive to monitor-so many

floods are expected. variables from so many sources.

Aircrafts and shipping rely heavily on The computers needed to perform the

accurate weather forecasting. millions of calculations necessary are

expensive.

People can choose where and when to The weather forecasters get blamed if the

take their holidays to take advantages weather is different from the forecast.

of good weather.
 Workflow diagram

(1) The weather is predicted for a particular geological area. Hence, the workflow is fed with
a model of the geophysical environment of ground, air and water for a requested area.

(2) Over a specified period of time (e.g. 6 hours) several different variables are measured and
observed. Ground stations, ships, airplanes, weather balloons, satellites and buoys measure
the air pressure, air/water temperature, wind velocity, air humidity, vertical temperature
profiles, cloud velocity, rain fall, and more.

(3) This data needs to be collected from the different sources and stored for later access.

(4) The collected data is analyzed and transformed into a common format (e.g. Fahrenheit to
Celsius scale). The normalized values are used to create the current state of the atmosphere.

(5) Then, a numerical weather forecast is made based on mathematical-physical models. The
environmental area needs to be discretized beforehand using grid cells. The physical
parameters measured in Step 2 are exposed in 3D space as timely function. This leads to a
system of partial differential equations reflecting the physical relations that is solved
numerically.
(6) The results of the numerical models are complemented with a statistical interpretation
(e.g. with MOS - Model-Output-Statistics). That means the forecast result of the numerical
models is compared to statistical weather data. Known forecast failures are corrected.

(7) The numerical post-processing is done with DMO (Direct Model Output): the numerical
results are interpolated for specific geological locations.

(8) Additionally, a statistical post-processing step removes failures of measuring devices

(e.g. using Kalman filters also known as linear quadratic estimation (LQE)).

(9) The statistical interpretation and the numerical results are then observed and interpreted
by meteorologists based on their subjective experiences.

(10) Finally, the weather forecast is visualized and presented to interested people.

In summary of this study the tools for collecting data include instruments such as
thermometers, barometers, hygrometers, rain gauges, anemometers, wind socks and vanes,
Doppler radar and satellite imagery (such as the GOES weather satellite).

Tools for coordinating and interpreting data include weather maps and computer models.

In a typical weather-forecasting system, recently collected data are fed into a computer model
in a process called assimilation. This ensures that the computer model holds the current
weather conditions as accurately as possible before using it to predict how the weather may
change over the next few days.

The rapid development of the various data assimilation methods for NWP is connected to the
two main points in the field of numerical weather prediction: 1. Utilizing the observations
currently seems to be the most promising challenge to improve the quality of the forecasts at
the different scales (from the planetary scale to the local city, or even street scale) 2. The
number of different kinds of observations (sodars, radars, satellite) is rapidly growing.

The DA methods are currently used not also in weather forecasting, but in different
environmental forecasting problems, e.g. in hydrological forecasting. Basically the same
types of DA methods, as those, described above are in use there. Data assimilation is the
challenge for the every forecasting problem.
Reference:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_radar

https://getrevising.co.uk/grids/weather-forecasting

http://study.com/academy/lesson/weather-forecasting-definition-types.html

https://www.scribd.com/document/43135106/Term-Paper-of-Digital-

Signal-Processing

https://www.scribd.com/document/46871650/dsp

http://www.morcom.com/