Journal of Basic and Applied Research

International
19(1): 10-29, 2016
ISSN: 2395-3438 (P), ISSN: 2395-3446 (O)
International Knowledge Press
www.ikpress.org

RECENT TREND OF REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION

IN THE NORTH-EASTERN REGION
OF BANGLADESH

SADIA MUBARAK1 AND MD HOSSAIN ALI2*

1
Department of Irrigation and Water Management, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202,
Bangladesh.
2
Agricultural Engineering Division, Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture, BAU Campus,
Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh.

AUTHORS CONTRIBUTIONS
This work was carried out in collaboration between the authors. Author MHA designed the study, wrote the
protocol and interpreted the data. Author SM gathered the initial data and performed preliminary
data analysis, searches the literature and produced the initial draft.
Both the authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Received: 26th July 2016

Accepted: 30th August 2016
Published: 26th September 2016 Original Research Article
__________________________________________________________________________________

ABSTRACT

Evapotranspiration (ET), the major component of hydrological cycle, will affect crop water requirement
directly. In this research, we investigated temporal trends of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) values in the
north-eastern region of Bangladesh. For this purpose, meteorological parameters collected from meteorological
site over a 25-years period (19912015) were used. Two statistical tests including Mann-Kendall and Sens
slope estimator (using MEKESENS software) and linear regression (t-test for significance of slope) were used
for the analysis. The same analysis was also performed on governing meteorological variables to identify the
cause of existence of such trend in ET0. The results showed decreasing trend of ET0 in dry season (Oct.
March), which is mainly caused by decreasing mean temperature and consistent decrease in wind speed. In wet
season (April to September), increasing trend was observed in July only; while the other months except
September showed decreasing trend. From the results of the two tests (i.e. MAKESENS Software and Linear
Regression), it is revealed that these tests had almost similar performance in detecting trend.

Keywords: Climate change; water requirement; agricultural system; climatic trend; Mann-Kendall test;
temperature pattern.

1. INTRODUCTION greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere

[1,2,3,4,5]. Numerous investigators have reached to
Climate can be one of the key risk factors affecting the conclusion that the earth surface air temperature
agricultural production worldwide. The increase of increased during the 20th century and will continue to
temperature is the result of increasing concentrations increase at higher rate in 21st century [6,7].
of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and other Greenhouse gases emission through anthropogenic
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

*Corresponding author: Email: mha_bina@yahoo.com, hossain.ali.bina@gmail.com;


activities (industries and agricultural practices) caused
most of the warming in the past [8]. Many
processes in the earth surface are affected by climate
change [9]. Climate change affects environment,
evapotranspiration (or crop water demand), and water
resources [10,11]. Evapotranspiration is a significant
variable affecting hydrological processes and water
resources [4,12,13,14]). Estimation of climate change
effect on evapotranspitaion is useful in water
resources planning. Most of the studies regarding
climate change have focused on the variability and
trend of temperature and rainfall [15,5,4,16,17]. The
ET, an important climatic parameter, which impacts
on water resources, has received less attention. Tests
for the detection of significant trends in hydro-
climatologic time series can be of parametric and non-
parametric. Non-parametric tests have the advantage
over parametric in the way that it does not require the
data to be normally distributed [18,19]. Reference
evapotranspiration (ET0) is a key parameter in
hydrological and meteorological studies and used to
determine the actual water use rate for various
crops. It is an important element in the water cycle
that integrates atmospheric demands and surface
conditions, and analysis of changes in ET0 is of great
significance for understanding climate change and its
impacts on hydrology. As ET0 is an integrated effect
of climate variables, increases in air temperature
should lead to increases in ET0. However, this effect
could be offset by decreases in vapor pressure deficit,
wind speed, and solar radiation which lead to the
decrease in ET. Evapotranspiration (ET) is likely to be
greatly affected by global warming because of the
dependence of ET on surface temperature. The
increasing atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases is
expected to increase precipitation and evaporation
proportionally. However, a few studies have shown a
decreasing trend for evaporation over the last 50
years globally. In India, earlier works showed that
there was a significant increasing temporal trend in
surface temperature and a decreasing trend in grass
reference ET (ET0).
Shadmani et al. [9] investigated reference
evapotranspiration (ET0) in Iran using non-parametric
tests. They found increasing ET0 in some cities, while
decreasing trend for others. Bandyopadhyay et al. [20]
examined the temporal trend of ET0 in India. They
observed a significant decreasing trend, which was
related to significant increase in the relative humidity
and decrease in the wind speed. Tabari et al. [13]
investigated the ET0 trend in the western Iran
using non-parametric tests. They found positive ET0
trend for annual data series, which was due to the
increasing trend of temperature. Ali et al. [14] and
11
Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016
Islam et al. [21] studied the trend of climatic
parameter e.g. rainfall, maximum temperature,
minimum temperature in different regions of
Bangladesh, but not ET0.
The objective of this study was to investigate the
temporal trends of ET0 due to climate change in
Mymensingh region, the north-eastern part of
Bangladesh.
2. MATERIALS AND METHODS
2.1 Site Location and Data Collection
In this study, the effect of climate change on ET0 was
studied for Mymensingh (Latitude 240 43' N,
longitude 900 26' E, and 19 m above Mean Sea Level)
district, the north-eastern part (part of the
Ganges alluvial soil) of Bangladesh. The land
cover of the area is about 85%. The permanent
house-hold vegetation is about 20%. Among the
rest (which is farm-land), 2 to 3 crop is
cultivated, which covers 80% of the yearly
time span. The long-term meteorological
condition (yearly distribution of the rainfall
and mean temperature) of the site is depicted in
Fig. 1.
Monthly meteorological data of mean air temperature,
rainfall, average relative humidity, bright sunshine
hour, and wind speed (25-years, 19912015) were
obtained from the weather station.
2.2 Calculation of ET0
Reference crop evapotranspiration during the growth
period was calculated using ET0 calculator software
[22]. Penmen-Monteith method was employed to
calculate ET0. The Penman-Montheith (P-M) equation
is expressed in the form:
0.0864 ( Rn G ) + c p a DPV / ra
ET0 = . (1)
+ (1 + rc / ra )
where is the latent heat of vaporization (MJkg-1);
the slope of the vapor pressure versus temperature
curve (kPa 0C-1); the psychrometric constant (kPa
0 -1
C ); Rn the net radiation (Wm-2); G the soil heat flux
(Wm-2); cp the specific heat of air (1013 Jkg-1 C-1); a
the atmospheric density (kgm-3); DPV the vapour
pressure deficit (kPa); ra the aerodynamic resistance
(sm-1); rc the bulk canopy resistance (sm-1); and the
ratio 0.0864/ was used to transform Wm-2 to mm per
day.
 Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016

50 time series with less than 10 data points, the S-test is

Rainfall (cm)
used and for time series with 10 or more data points,
40 the Z-test is used. More details about the software can
Rainfall, cm

be found in Salmi et al. [26].

30

20
2.3.2 Trend analysis using Microsoft excel

10 In this case, the year value is expressed as relative

year in X-axis, and ET0 values in Y-axis. The slope
0 of the curve (regression co-efficient of the equation)

Oct
Jan

Jun

Aug

Sep
Mar

Jul
Apr

May

Nov

Dec
Feb

represents slope of the ET0.

Month of the year
35
Temp., 0 C
To test the significance of slope (linear regression
30
coefficient), the t-statistic was used as follows:
25

= 

Temperature, 0C


20 (2)
maximum /(
 
)
15
minimum
10
where S2 is an estimate of the residual variance. Here t
5 has (n-2) degree of freedom (df). This test is
0 equivalent to the significant correlation co-efficient
test for r.
Aug
Jul
Feb

Oct
Jun
May

Nov

Dec
Apr

Sep
Mar
Jan

Month of the year

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Fig. 1. Long-term average monthly rainfall and
temperature pattern of the study area 3.1 Mean Monthly ET0 Trend by
MAKESENS Software
In ET0 calculator, the values of mean air temperature,
average relative humidity, wind speed, bright The climate of the region is characterized by two
sunshine hour are required for P-M method. seasons; the one being dry (October to March) and the
other being wet (April to September). The magnitude
2.3 Statistical Tests of trends of the mean monthly ET0 (by MAKESENS
Software) are summarized in Table 1. The Sens
In this study, in order to detect the significant trends estimate, 95% confidence limit and residual value of
of the considered ET0 time series of the selected ET0 are depicted in Fig. 2.1 to Fig. 2.4. The results
station, the MK test and t-test were used. The methods showed decreasing trend of ET0 in dry season,
used are described as follows: amongst which December, January and March
showed significant at = 0.001, and April and
2.3.1 Trend analysis of ET0 using non-parametric November at = 0.01. In wet season, increasing
method trend was observed in July only; while the
other months showed decreasing trend except
We analyzed the trend of ET0 using Mann-Kendall September.
test developed by Mann [23] and Kendall [24]. This is
a non-parametric test which is relevant in detecting As reported by numerous investigators, climate
both linear and non-linear trends [25]. We used change affects ET0 in both positive (increasing) and
"MAKESENS" software [26] for detecting and negative (decreasing) directions. Bandyopadhyay et
estimating trends. The software is based on the non- al. [20] observed negative trend in India, Chen et al.
parametric Mann-Kendall test for trend and non- [28] observed negative trend in China, Zaninoviand
parametric Sen's method for the magnitude of the and Gaji-apka [29] observed positive trend in
trend. The advantage of non-parametric method is central Europe, and Dongsheng et al. [30] found
that it is applicable for both monotonic and non- positive trend in the annual potential
monotonic trend, and there is no problem with evapotranspiration in North-eastern China. For arid
the missing data. The software also exploits both region of Iran, Shadmani et al. [9] reported a positive
the so-called S-statistics and Z-statistics (the trend in ET0 in some cities, while negative for some
normal approximation) given by Gilbert [27]. For other cities.

12
 Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016

3.00

2.50
Data
2.00 Sen's estimate

1.50 99 % conf. min

jan

99 % conf. max
1.00
95 % conf. min
0.50 95 % conf. max
Residual
0.00
0 10 20 30
-0.50
Year

4.50
4.00
3.50 Data
3.00 Sen's estimate
2.50 99 % conf. min
2.00
feb

99 % conf. max
1.50
1.00 95 % conf. min
0.50 95 % conf. max
0.00 Residual
-0.50 0 10 20 30
-1.00
Year

5.00

4.00 Data
Sen's estimate
3.00
99 % conf. min
mar

2.00 99 % conf. max

95 % conf. min
1.00
95 % conf. max
0.00 Residual
0 10 20 30
-1.00
Year

Fig. 2.1. Sens estimate, 95% confidence limit and residual value of ET0 (Jan.-Mar.)

13
 Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016

3.00
2.50
Data
2.00
Sen's estimate
1.50 99 % conf. min
may

1.00 99 % conf. max

0.50 95 % conf. min
95 % conf. max
0.00
Residual
-0.50 0 10 20 30
-1.00
Year

5.00

4.00 Data
Sen's estimate
3.00
99 % conf. min
june

2.00 99 % conf. max

95 % conf. min
1.00
95 % conf. max
0.00 Residual
0 10 20 30
-1.00
Year

6.00

5.00
Data
4.00 Sen's estimate

3.00 99 % conf. min

apr

99 % conf. max
2.00
95 % conf. min
1.00 95 % conf. max
Residual
0.00
0 10 20 30
-1.00
Year

Fig. 2.2. Sens estimate, 95% confidence limit and residual value of ET0 (April-June)

14
 Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016

3.00
2.50
Data
2.00
Sen's estimate
1.50 99 % conf. min
aug

1.00 99 % conf. max

0.50 95 % conf. min
0.00 95 % conf. max
Residual
-0.50 0 10 20 30
-1.00
Year

3.00
2.50
Data
2.00
Sen's estimate
1.50 99 % conf. min
sep

1.00 99 % conf. max

0.50 95 % conf. min
95 % conf. max
0.00
Residual
-0.50 0 10 20 30
-1.00
Year

3.00
2.50
Data
2.00
Sen's estimate
1.50 99 % conf. min
july

1.00 99 % conf. max

0.50 95 % conf. min
95 % conf. max
0.00
Residual
-0.50 0 10 20 30
-1.00
Year

Fig. 2.3. Sens estimate, 95% confidence limit and residual value of ET0 (July-Sep.)

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 Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016

3.00
2.50
Data
2.00
Sen's estimate
1.50 99 % conf. min
nov

1.00 99 % conf. max

0.50 95 % conf. min
95 % conf. max
0.00
Residual
-0.50 0 10 20 30
-1.00
Year

3.00
2.50
Data
2.00
Sen's estimate
1.50 99 % conf. min
dec

1.00 99 % conf. max

0.50 95 % conf. min
95 % conf. max
0.00
Residual
-0.50 0 10 20 30
-1.00
Year

3.00
2.50
Data
2.00
Sen's estimate
1.50 99 % conf. min
oct

1.00 99 % conf. max

0.50 95 % conf. min
95 % conf. max
0.00
Residual
-0.50 0 10 20 30
-1.00
Year

Fig. 2.4. Sens estimate, 95% confidence limit and residual value of ET0 (Oct.-Dec.)

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 Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016

Table 1. ET0 value in the past, at present and significance level of trend by MEKESENS

Month ET0 (mm/month) in Slope (Q) Significance level

1991 2015
January 2.27 1.82 -0.022 ***
February 3.15 2.25 -0.014 +
March 3.97 3.44 -0.027 ***
April 4.48 3.46 -0.034 **
May 2.98 4.13 -0.002
June 3.13 3.75 -0.003
July 3.75 3.61 0.008
August 3.74 3.25 -0.014
September 2.36 3.5 0
October 2.95 3.42 -0.006
November 2.58 2.62 -0.015 **
December 2.14 1.71 -0.028 ***
In case of cell is blank, the significance level is greater than 0.1, Q = Slope of linear regression equation
*** trend is significant at =0.001, ** trend is significant at =0.01, * trend is significant at =0.05
+ trend is significant at =0

Table 2. t-test results for ET0 trend in monthly time series

Month b t-value (calculated) t-value (Tabulated) t-value Significant in

With (25-2) =23 df (at 5% level of (Tabulated) the month at
significance) (at 1% level) 1% level
January -0.022 5.67 2.069 2.807 Y
February -0.014 1.47 2.069 2.807
March -0.027 4.56 2.069 2.807 Y
April -0.034 3.79 2.069 2.807 Y
May -0.002 0.17 2.069 2.807
June -0.003 0.41 2.069 2.807
July 0.008 0.73 2.069 2.807
August -0.014 1.44 2.069 2.807
September -0.0 0 2.069 2.807
October -0.006 0.99 2.069 2.807
November -0.015 2.87 2.069 2.807 Y
December -0.028 5.21 2.069 2.807 Y
Note: Y indicates significant

3.2 Monthly ET0 Trend by Linear Regression
(Microsoft Excel)
The trends of the monthly ET0 using linear Regression
(through Microsoft Excel) are depicted in Figs. 3.1
and 3.2. The t-test results for significance of slope
(i.e. trend) are presented in Table 2 above. Positive
trend was observed in July only, other months showed
a negative trend.
performance in detecting trend. The MAKESENS
Software has the automated capability to precisely
estimate the level of significance beyond 1%. Both
the approach identified the zero or no trend in
September, positive trend in July, and also other
negative trends.
3.4 Relating ET0 Trend with Other Climatic
Parameters

3.3 Comparison of ET0 Trend by To examine the correlation of ET0 with climatic
MAKESENS Software and Linear parameters, trend of climatic parameters such as mean
Regression (Microsoft Excel) temperature, humidity, and wind speed were analyzed
for trend (Figs. 4.1-4.8, Tables 3.1, 3.2). The
From the results of these two tests (i.e. MAKESENS temperature shows negative trend (which corresponds
Software and Linear Regression, (Tables 1 and 2), it to lower ET0) only in November, December and April;
is revealed that these tests had almost similar although the trend value (magnitude of slope) is very

17
 Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016

small for both positive and negative trend. Relative speed shows negative trend (which corresponds to
humidity has negative trend (which corresponds to lower ET0) in all months (Figs. 4.5-4.6) and the trend
higher ET0) in May, June, July, September and in very high.
October and the magnitude of slope is very low. Wind

October y = -0.006x + 3.382

R = 0.052 January y = -0.022x + 2.307
3.00 R = 0.592
4.00

3.50 2.50
3.00

ET0 (mm/month)
ET0 (mm/month)

2.00
2.50

2.00 1.50

1.50 1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50

0.00 0.00
0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30
Relative year Relative year

November y = -0.015x + 2.883

R = 0.265
February y = -0.014x + 3.135
R = 0.093
3.50 4.50

3.00 4.00
3.50
2.50
ET0 (mm/month)

ET0 (mm/month)

3.00
2.00 2.50
1.50 2.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00 0.00
0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30
Relative year Relative year

December y = -0.028x + 2.395

R = 0.555 March y = -0.027x + 4.209
R = 0.488
3.00 5.00
4.50
2.50
4.00
ET0 (mm/month)

ET0 (mm/month)

2.00 3.50
3.00
1.50 2.50
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.50 1.00
0.50
0.00 0.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 10 20 30
Relative year Relative year

Fig. 3.1. Monthly ET0 trend during the dry season (Oct. March)

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 Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016

y = -0.034x + 4.841 y = 0.008x + 3.578

April R = 0.389 July R = 0.028
6.00 5.00
4.50
5.00
4.00
ET0 (mm/month)

ET0 (mm/month)
4.00 3.50
3.00
3.00 2.50
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.00 1.00
0.50
0.00 0.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Relative year Relative year
y = -0.002x + 4.334
6.00
May R = 0.002 August y = -0.014x + 3.845
R = 0.083
5.00
4.50
5.00
4.00
ET0 (mm/month)
ET0 (mm/month)

4.00 3.50
3.00
3.00 2.50
2.00
2.00
1.50

1.00 1.00
0.50
0.00 0.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Relative year Relative year
y = -0.003x + 3.702
June R = 0.007 September y = -0.000x + 3.406
R = 6E-05
4.50 4.50
4.00 4.00
3.50 3.50
ET0 (mm/month)
ET0 (mm/month)

3.00 3.00
2.50 2.50
2.00 2.00
1.50 1.50
1.00 1.00
0.50 0.50

0.00 0.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Relative year Relative year

Fig. 3.2. Monthly ET0 trend during the wet season (April Sept.)

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 Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016

y = 0.009x + 17.85 y = 0.029x + 20.65

25
January 25 February R = 0.036
R = 0.006
20 20
Temperature (oC)

Temperature (oC)
15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Relative Year Relative Year
y = 0.010x + 24.73 y = -0.006x + 27.16
30
March R = 0.006 35
April R = 0.002

25 30

Temperature (oC)
25
Temperature (oC)

20
20
15
15
10
10
5 5
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Relative Year Relative Year
y = 0.045x + 27.29
May R = 0.103 June y = 0.031x + 28.25
R = 0.179
35 35
30 30
Temperature (oC)

Temperature (oC)

25 25
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
0 5 10 Relative
15 Year 20 25 30 0 5 10 Relative
15 Year 20 25 30

Fig. 4.1. Temperature trend during January to June

Table 3.1. Trend of temperature and relative humidity, and their significance level using MAKESENS
software

Climatic parameter Month Value in Slope (Q) Significance level

1991 2015
Temperature January 17.21 18.9 0.055
(C) February 21.08 21.2 0.029
March 25.09 24.6 0.010
April 26.21 26 -0.006
May 24.51 28.1 0.045
June 27.4 28.8 0.031 +
July 28.34 29.2 0.035 **
August 28.25 29.2 0.017
September 26.35 29.3 0.046 *
October 26.13 27.9 0.017
November 22.32 23.4 -0.026
December 19.18 19.3 -0.039
Relative humidity (%) January 73.1 82.8 0.331 **
February 74.39 79.5 0.108
March 71.03 74.5 0.264 *

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 Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016

Climatic parameter Month Value in Slope (Q) Significance level

1991 2015
April 76.23 81 0.215 *
May 88.19 80.8 -0.058
June 88.43 86.2 -0.04
July 86.39 85.1 -0.036
August 86.42 87.7 0.04
September 92.1 86.1 -0.034
October 85.74 82.9 -0.01
November 78.33 82.2 0.18 **
December 78.32 83.4 0.257 **
In case of cell is blank, the significance level is greater than 0.1, Q = Slope of linear regression equation
*** trend is significant at =0.001, ** trend is significant at =0.01, * trend is significant at =0.05,
+ trend is significant at =0

y = 0.035x + 28.39 y = 0.017x + 28.79

July R = 0.319 35 August R = 0.129
35
30 30
Temperature (oC)

25 25

20 Temperature (oC) 20

15 15

10 10
5 5
0 0
0 5 10 Relative
15 Year 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Relative Year
y = 0.046x + 28.12 y = 0.017x + 27.17
September R = 0.243 35
October R = 0.046
35
Temperature (oC)

30 30
Temperature (oC)

25 25
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Relative Year Relative Year
y = -0.026x + 24.03 y = -0.039x + 20.30
30
November R = 0.079
30 December R = 0.050

25 25
Temperature (oC)

Temperature(oC)

20 20

15 15

10 10
5
5
0
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Relative Year Relative Year

Fig. 4.2. Temperature trend during July to December

21
 Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016

y = 0.331x + 75.22 y = 0.108x + 72.99

100
January R = 0.439 100 February R = 0.064

Relative Humidity (%)

Relative Humidity (%)

80
80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
0 5 10 Relative15Year 20 25 30 0 5 10 Relative
15 Year 20 25 30

y = 0.264x + 69.90
100 March R = 0.302 100 April y = 0.215x + 75.56
R = 0.229

Relative Humidity (%)

80 80
Relative Humidity (%)

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
0 5 10 Relative
15 Year 20 25 30 0 5 10 Relative
15 Year 20 25 30
y = -0.058x + 82.69
100 May R = 0.040 100
June y = -0.04x + 86.74
R = 0.045
Relative Humidity (%)

Relative Humidity (%)

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
0 5 10 Relative
15 Year 20 25 30 0 5 10 Relative
15 Year 20 25 30

Fig. 4.3. Temperature trend during January to June

Ali et al. [31] reported that, among the factors temperature, only in the months of July and
affecting ET0 determination using P-M method, the September, trend is significant at the 1% and 5%
sensitiveness of the weather factors is in the order: level. In case of relative humidity, trend is
temperature > relative humidity> bright sunshine significant at the 1% level for the months of
duration > wind speed. That is, ET0 is more sensitive March, April; and at 5% level for January,
to temperature change, then to relative humidity November and December. In case of wind speed,
and less sensitive to wind speed. In this study, trend is significant at the 1% for the all months of the
it is observed from Tables 3.1 and 3.2 that, in case of year.

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 Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016

y = -0.036x + 86.97 y = 0.040x + 86.03

100
July R = 0.015 100 August R = 0.028
Relative Humidity (%)

Relative Humidity (%)

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 Relative
15 Year 20 25 30
Relative Year
y = -0.010x + 84.88
100
September y = -0.034x + 87.14
R = 0.014 100 October R = 0.000

Relative Humidity (%)

Relative Humidity (%)

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Relative Year Relative Year

November y = 0.180x + 79.47

R = 0.390
December y = 0.257x + 77.41
R = 0.140
100 100
Relative Humidity (%)

Relative Humidity (%)

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 Relative
15 Year 20 25 30
Relative Year

Fig. 4.4. Relative humidity trend during July to December

The temperature showed negative trend in few months in winter/ dry months and decreasing trend in wet
(specially in cold/winter months November, months, although the magnitude is minimal (Figs. 4.3
December, January, and April). Other months showed and 4.4). The wind speed showed very sharp
increasing trend, but the magnitude of trend is very decreasing trend (Figs. 4.5 and 4.6). During the study
minimal (Figs. 4.1 and 4.2). Relative humidity period, the magnitude of wind speed decreased by
showed reverse trend of temperature, increasing trend about 3/4th of its initial value. Thus, it is revealed that

23
 Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016

increasing or decreasing trend of monthly ET0 is temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed),
caused by combined effect of some climatic mostly contributed by wind speed.
parameters (increasing or decreasing trend in

y = -0.133x + 4.751
5
January R = 0.696 7
February y = -0.205x + 6.613
R = 0.795

6
Wind Speed (km/h)

Wind Speed (km/h)

5
3 4

2 3
2
1 1
0 0
0 5 10 Relative15Year 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Relative Year
y = -0.25x + 9.213 y = -0.257x + 12.36
March R = 0.667 14
April R = 0.644
12
12
10
Wind Speed (km/h)

Wind Speed (km/h)

10
8
8
6
6
4 4
2 2
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Relative Year Relative year
y = -0.297x + 13.97
May y = -0.298x + 13.93
R = 0.654 20
June R = 0.708
20
Wind Speed (km/h)
Wind Speed (km/h)

15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 Relative
15 Year 20 25 30
Relative Year

Fig. 4.5. Wind speed trend during January to June

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 Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016

y = -0.285x + 13.70
July R = 0.784
August y = -0.301x + 12.24
R = 0.696
16 14
14 12

Wind Speep (km/h)

Wind Speed (km/h)

12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0 0

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Relative Year Relative Year
y = -0.230x + 9.340 y = -0.166x + 5.943
September R = 0.582 7
October R = 0.533
10
6
8

Wind Speed (km/h)

Wind Speed (km/h)

5
6 4

4 3
2
2
1
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Relative Year Relative Year
+ 3.772
November y = -0.126x + 4.033
R = 0.602
December y = -0.116x
R = 0.536
5 6

5
4
Wind Speed (km/h)
Wind Speed (km/h)

4
3
3
2
2

1 1

0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Relative Year Relative Year

Fig. 4.6. Wind speed trend during July to December

Table 3.2. Trend of wind speed and rainfall, and their significant level using MAKESENS software

Climatic parameter Month Value in Slope (Q) Significance level

1991 2015
Wind speed January 4.69 1.26 -0.133 ***
(km/h) February 6.47 1.1 -0.205 ***
March 7.56 1.12 -0.25 ***
April 10.6 3.45 -0.257 ***
May 16.64 8.97 -0.298 ***
June 11.93 9.45 -0.297 ***
July 13.98 8.72 -0.285 ***
August 11.93 8.4 -0.301 ***
September 6.77 5.64 -0.23 ***

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 Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016

Climatic parameter Month Value in Slope (Q) Significance level

1991 2015
October 5.6 3.56 -0.166 ***
November 3.58 2.51 -0.126 ***
December 5.05 2.33 -0.116 ***
Rainfall (mm) January 1.4 15.2 -0.666
February 17.3 19.6 -0.38
March 47.2 0.7 -0.903
April 45.7 206.5 1.307
May 679.6 203.6 -4.714
June 615.6 484.1 -3.695
July 314.6 387.9 0.209
August 252.2 383.3 3.682
September 813.3 287.5 -8.544
October 520.9 78 -7.723 *
November 0 4.3 -0.404
December 76.7 0 -0.557
In case of cell is blank, the significance level is greater than 0.1, Q = Slope of linear regression equation
*** trend is significant at =0.001, ** trend is significant at =0.01, * trend is significant at =0.05,
+ trend is significant at =0

y = -0.666x + 18.13 y = -0.380x + 17.71

70
January R = 0.102 60
February R = 0.036

60 50
Rainfall (mm)

50 40
Rainfall (mm)

40 30
30 February
January 20
20
10
10
0
0
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
1
3
5
7
9

Relative Year Relative Year

y = 1.307x + 113.1
March y = -0.903x + 49.06
R = 0.034
April R = 0.015
140 350
120 300
Rainfall (mm)

100 250
Rainfal (mm)

80 200
60 150
M April
40 100
20 50

0 0
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
1
3
5
7
9
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25

Relative Year Relative Year

800 May y = -4.714x + 352.2

R = 0.064
June y = -3.695x + 462.1
R = 0.018
1000
700
600 800
Rainfall (mm)

Rainfall (mm)

500
600
400
300 M 400 June
200
200
100
0 0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25

1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25

Relative Year Relative Year

Fig. 4.7. Rainfall trend during January to June

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 Mubarak and Ali; JOBARI, 19(1): 10-29, 2016

900 July y = 0.209x + 402.5

800
August y = 3.682x + 311.8
R = 0.037
R = 8E-05
800
700
700
600
Rainfall (mm)

600

Rainfall (mm)
500
500
400
400
300 July 300 August
200 200
100 100
0 0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25

5
7

9
11

13

15
17

19
21

23

25
Relative Year Relative Year
y = -8.544x + 415.5
900 September R = 0.181 October y = -7.723x + 289.4
R = 0.138
600
800
700 500
600
Rainfall (mm)
400
Rainfall (mm)

500
300 Oct
400 Septe
300 200
200
100 100

0 0
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
1
3
5
7
9

11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
1
3
5
7
9
Relative Year Relative Year
y = -0.404x + 17.91 y = -0.557x + 13.93
100 November R = 0.012 90
December R = 0.055
90 80
80 70
70 60
Rainfall (mm)

Rainfall (mm)

60 50
50 40
40 30 Dece
November
30 20
20 10
10 0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25

0 -10
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25

Relative Year Relative Year

Fig. 4.8. Rainfall trend during July to December

4. CONCLUSIONS The results of Mann-Kendall and linear trend tests

showed similar capability of the two tests in detecting
The adverse effects of climate change on agriculture the trend, having a small difference in detection of the
have become a major concern for all countries. It is significant ET0 trend. Overall, the results of this
clear from the study that any change in climate will study signify the need of detail analysis of the
have an impact on ET0 and hence, on crop water effects of climate change on ET0, especially in dry
demand, and therefore on agriculture and water climate.
resources planning in the area. In this study, trends in
mean monthly ET0 data for north-eastern region of COMPETING INTERESTS
Bangladesh were analyzed. The results showed
decreasing tends for monthly ET0 except July, which Authors have declared that no competing interests
is mainly due to sharp decreasing trend of wind speed. exist.

27

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