2016

Confidential and Protected by Copyright Laws



10

OS

2016/9/6 2
 10

2016/9/6 3
1020062015
GDP5.8

2006-2015GDP
14.2%
12.7%
GDP GDP6
10.6%

9.6% 9.5%
9.2%

7.8% 7.7% 7.3% 6.9%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 4
1020062015
50%
24

2006-2015GDP 2006-2015GDP

41.90% 50.50%

66.4%
42.40%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Analysys www.analysys.cn Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 5
1020062015

12.3%
2006-2015

350000 160%
137.2%
300000 140%
116.0%
107.2% 120%
250000
100%
200000 81.80%
74.1%
80%
150000 58.9% 53.6%
48.2% 45.0% 60%
100000 33.9%
22.70% 40%
15.80% 18.20% 15.50% 18.30% 17.1% 14.30% 13.10%
50000 12.00% 10.70% 20%
0 0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 6
102006-201512

1982-2015

80%

70%
56%
60%

50%
44%
10
21%
40%

30%

20%
33
10%

0%

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 7
102006201515

2006-2015

60,000
50% 51% 52% 60%

47% 48%
50,000 46% 50%

37% 38% 39% 40%

40,000 40%

30,000 30%

20,000 20%

10,000 10%
28,310 29,350 30,210 31,120 34,687 35,914 37,102 38,240 39,310 40,410
0 0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 8
1020062015
165%

2006-2015

35000
31195
28844
30000 26955
24565
25000
21810
19109
20000 17175
15781
13786
15000
11759 11422
9892
8896
10000 6977 7917
5153 5919
4140 4761
5000
3587

0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 9
1020062015

2006-2015

160%
137%
140% 122%
120% 107%
100% 82%
74%
80% 61%
51% 55%
60% 47%
35%
40%
15% 15% 15% 18% 13% 12%
20% 10% 8% 11% 15%
12% 17% 14% 11% 14% 13%
9% 10% 7% 8%
0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GMV2010O2O

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 10
1020062015

2006-2015
2015vs.2006
-1.1%
0.3%
-2.8%
0.1%
0.4%

11.4%

-3.0%

-5.2%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 11
1020062015
10%50%

2006 2015
1.4 7
10% 50%

6.9
1.4

CNNIC

2016/9/6 12
1020062015
1%45%

2006 2015
1700 6
1% 45%

6.2
1700

CNNIC

2016/9/6 13
1020062015
40
30
2006-2015

80%

70%
64%
60%

50%

40% 32%
30% 20%
20%

10% 3%
0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Analysys CNNIC www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 14
1020062015
10

2006-2015

19% 28%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Analysys CNNIC www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 15
8090

2007-2015
2015vs.2007

60 2.5%

50-59 2.0%

40-49 5.0%

30-39 3.3%

20-29 8.2%

10-19 6.4%

10 1.9%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Analysys CNNIC www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 16
8090

80 8090TGI 90

MV
TGI143 TGI128 TGI127 TGI126 TGI125 TGI242 TGI219 TGI210 TGI209 TGI203

TGI120 TGI120 TGI118 TGI116 TGI112 TGI200 TGI200 TGI192 TGI188 TGI180
TGITarget Group IndexTGI
TGI100100
2016/9/6 17


2016/9/6 18
2012PC

2007-2015PC
9
8 2012PC 7.3 7.9
7 6.5 6.8
5.7 6.5
6 6.2

5.2 5.7
5
4.6
4.3
4 3.9
PC
3 3.0 2.8

2 2.1 2.0
1 1.0
0.4
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PC

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 19

50%
2016
96.2%
100%
2016Q2
80%
70.2%
60.3%
60% 59.0%
51.9%
42.1%
39.3% 38.6% 37.3%
40% 35.9% 34.8%
29.8%
25.9%
23.2%
18.0%
20% 11.4% 10.7%
8.1% 7.3% 9.1%
5.6% 4.1% 3.7% 3.6%
3.2% 3.0% 1.1%

0%

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 20

2016-2018

90000 183.8% 200%

76,547.0
80000

70000 158.0%
60,542.5 150%
60000 129.2%
46,720.6
50000
100%
40000
30,794.6
30000 51.7%
29.6% 50%
20000 13,437.7 26.4%
10000 4,734.2
1,835.0
0 0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 21

80%
2016-2018

100% 3.6%
3.6% 6.4%
2.8% 13.7% 18.6% 20.9% 23.5% 25.5%
3.5%
80% 2.9% 3.2%
37.4% 3.6% 3.8%
55.3%
60%
6.3% 64.1%
67.4% 66.7%
40% 64.7% 63.7%
4.9%
49.1%
20%
30.6% 3.1%
15.6% 2.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.3%
8.8% 7.4% 6.6% 5.7%
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 22
PC

2014-2015PC
PC
100%

80%

60%
95%
40% 86%
74% 72%
57% 65%
42%
54% 50%56% 47%52% 44%48%
54%
20%
32% 40%42%
30% 28% 27%
0%

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 23

2013-2015

100% 2013 2014 2015

90%
90% 82%
80% 70%
70%
60% 53%
50% 43% 45% 44%
37% 37%
40% 32%
30%
20%
10%
0%
360

12

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 24
 OS

2016/9/6 25
TOP20
69%
2016RMB 2015RMB
1 12988 943 34.7% 16.4%
2 12790 1029 34.2% 17.9%
3 3830 664 10.2% 11.6%
4 2083 1813 5.6% 31.6%
5 1367 228 3.7% 4.0%
6 1334 109 3.6% 1.9%
7 460 402 1.2% 7.0%
8 337 28 0.9% 0.5%
9 312 42 0.8% 0.7%
10 58 294 46 0.8% 0.8%
11 278 28 0.7% 0.5%
12 202 29 0.5% 0.5%
13 171 35 0.5% 0.6%
14 164 59 0.4% 1.0%
15 158 44 0.4% 0.8%
16 149 57 0.4% 1.0%
17 146 9 0.4% 0.2%
18 133 37 0.4% 0.6%
19 112 21 0.3% 0.4%
20 103 123 0.3% 2.1%
37410 5745 100% 100%
2016/9/6 2016516 16.5184 10.8398 26
BAT2015TOP30
27
2015T0P30
2015 2015


1 447.0 62,095 16 24.3 7,767
2 425.0 30,232 17 23.3 13,316
3 351.8 43,211 18 58 23.2 2,238
4 149.0 4,004 19 22.8 398
5 84.1 2,827 20 21.0 266
6 83.9 7,188 21 PPS 21.0 18,113
7 76.6 713 22 17.1 130
8 58.5 7,391 23 1 16.9 342
9 39.6 13,697 24 16.4 3767
10 360 35.5 19,216 25 15.5 844
11 31.7 14,686 26 15.5 34
12 26.0 7,233 27 14.7 904
13 29.5 1,086 28 13.7 /
14 26.2 385 29 13.0 57
15 24.6 119 30 12.0 /

2016/9/6 APP201512
27
BATOSAPP

2015APPTOP10

583
QQ 494

329
306

207

APP 180
177
UC 172

QQ 157
141
OS
0 200 400 600 800

2016/9/6 28


UC 17629 2015

14435

2695 640

27449 737 600

27238 18269 250

4178
O2O 170
2730
884 9938
87
807
5384 62
649
3704
605
13.5
538 536
4.1
314
1105 IT
244
228 154
168
2382 O2O

1025
+

2016/9/6 1201642150 29


18665
11950
2015

11123 PPS 19028

50
5999 2724
4973
2115
3540 34
3497 2567

1746 257
1534 O2O 14
Uber 783
1497
1375
235 6
605
521 643
484 9.5
373
414
IT
355
325
287
286 + O2O
268
260
220
1201642150 30


67647
53585 QQ
19913
18748
2015
18513 QQ

15315
5325
15046 QQ
13134 58 2207 160
11897 1105
155
6655 QQ 5806
O2O 72
3686 QQ 869
2806 QQ 52
2101 QQ 3704
1980 P
34
1796 K 444
25
1702 QQ 329
767 15
606 655
13
495
482 464 5
458
1326
6.8
431
414 IT
TV 1377
403
384 QQ 337
294
289
FM 2102 O2O
249
243
221
QQ
Q
+

2016/9/6 1201642200 31
BAT

90 18.8% 76
20%
80 18%
65 65 66 16%
70
60 12.1% 14%
49
50 42 45 12%
38 10%
40
9.2% 8.5%
8%
30 22
7.5% 7.4% 8.2% 6.4% 6%
20 4%
10 5 4.9%
1.6% 2%
0 0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

20162015Q22016Q1

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 32


Facebook

400 365 60%
343
350 305 50%
300 53.0% 50.3% 49.6% 40%
250
200 41.0% 38.5% 30%
150
34.1%
90 20%
100 66 59
50 10%
0 0%
2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016H1

Facebook

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 33


2016/9/6 34


2015

45%
39%
40% 37%

35%

30% 28%

25% 23%

20% 16% 15%

15% 13% 12%
10%
10% 7%

5%

0%

Analysys eMarketer www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 35


2016-2018 2016-2018

4000 300% 4000 300%

3500 3500
250% 250%
3000 3000
200% 200%
2500 2500

2000 150% 2000 150%

2,136.3
1500 1500
100% 100%
1000 1000
92%
36% 50% 904.9 50%
500 500

0 0% 0 0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Analysys www.analysys.cn Analysys www.analysys.cn

20161177.1 2016592.0
2016/9/6 36


2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1

Facebook 230.8 249.7 280.3 367.4 339.0

73% 76% 78% 80% 82%

Facebook 14.4 14.9 15.5 15.9 16.5

83% 88% 90% 91% 91%

27.24 40.73 49.38 57.33 47.01

65%2015 80%
WeChat
5.49 6.00 6.50 6.97 7.62

Facebook ,16.5184

2016/9/6 37


2014-2016 2014-2016

12.0% 12.3% 12.4% 13.1% 11.8% 10.5%
0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
0.7% 0.7%
10.5% 12.8% 14.1%

23.6% 24.8% 25.3%
Email
28.7% 29.3% 30.6%

25.2% 24.5% 24.9%

47.2% 45.6% 42.9%
38.4% 37.7% 36.4%

2014 2015 2016F 2014 2015 2016F

Analysys www.analysys.cn Analysys eMarketer www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 38


2009-2015
2015vs.2009
100%
15.5% 17.3% 15.5% 14.3% 12.0% 12.3% -3.2%
20.4%
80% 5.5%
1.3% 8.0% 23.6%
19.2% 20.8% 24.8%
1.1% 18.1% 19.3%
1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
60% 31.9%
28.2%
25.5% 25.0% 24.8% 25.2% 24.5% Email -0.6%
40%
7.4%
20% 45.8% 42.3% 38.1% 39.4% 39.3% 38.4% 37.7%
8.1%
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 39

2016-2018

700 140%
123.0%
600 120%

500 100%
82.7%
400 80%

300 50.1% 60%

43.0%
38.2% 39.2%
200 31.5% 40%
22.9%
100 20%
48.3 88.3 122.1 170.0 243.1 365.0 480.0 590.0
0 0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016158.0
2016/9/6 40


2016-2017 2016-2017

450 100% 3000 45%

389.0 2672.5
90%
91.2% 2500 40.8%
360 80% 36%
2145.2
70%
2000
270
262.0
60% 1638.7 30.9% 27%

175.1 50% 1500

1163.5 24.6%
180 49.6% 48.5% 40% 18%
1000
30%
91.6
90 20% 9%
500
10%
0 0% 0 0%
2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2014 2015 2016F 2017F

16.5184

Analysys www.analysys.cn Analysys eMarketer www.analysys.cn

2016100.1
2016/9/6 41


9.0 :18.4 :15.2 24.1
:35% 169% :229% 73%

:2370.3 :17.2 :18.9 102.6
33% 327% :162% 404%

:320.8 :772.6 :202.1 431.1
82% 239% 175% 430%

:21.7
16%
20163
2016/9/6 42


2016-2017

450 300%
250.9% 389.8
400
250%
350

300 280.8 200%

167.9%
250 141.0%
183.5 150%
200

150 100%
53.0%
100 38.8%
52.3 50%
50 21.7
8.1
0 0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F

Analysys www.analysys.cn
2016123.6
2016/9/6 43


2016/9/6 44


2012-2015
2012 2013 2014 2015 2015vs.2012
30.9% 31.4% 31.2% 30.8% -0.1%
15.3% 16.2% 20.8% 21.9% 6.6%
6.2% 5.7% 4.6% 3.8% -2.4%
4.6% 5.2% 5.4% 7.6% 3.0%
3.9% 4.3% 4.3% 3.9% 0.0%
3.6% 3.3% 2.7% 2.2% -1.4%
2.7% 3.0% 1.9% 1.3% -1.4%
360 2.0% 2.4% 2.7% 3.5% 1.5%
1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% -0.3%
0.0% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.1%
0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
2.3% 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0%
26.7% 23.1% 21.7% 20.1% -6.6%
100% 100% 100% 100%
2016/9/6 45


2016/9/6 46


12
100

20161
4.7489%
64%

201616.47
31%
106%

2016/9/6 47


1.0 1.5

2016/9/6 48
20153
2012-2015
35000

28743
30000
24368 25242
25000
19325
20000

15000

10000

5000

0
2012 2013 2014 2015

PGCUGC

www.analysys.cn
Analysys

2016/9/6 49
IP

2015IP 2014-2015IP
45%
41%
40%

23.1% 35%
9.3%
23.1% 30%
19.9%
14.2%
25%
17.4%
20% 18%
16.3%
16.3% 19.9% 15%
14.2% 10%
17.4%
9.3% 5%

0%
2014 2015

Analysys www.analysys.cn Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 50
IP
2015TOP100IP

43%

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 51
IP

2800
China
Joy6
14


2800

14

sm50

5


1


3
200

2016/9/6 52
IP

2 26 22
3.99220 765%
501.7
4100

51.6
VIP260
MAU2000
APP
2016/9/6 53
IP

Papi1346

PapiUGC
1525
102

20163Papi
1200
2016421Papi
2200

2016/9/6 54


2016/9/6 55

2003-2015

45000 300%

40000 238.9%
250%
35000
196.1%
30000 200%

25000 137.2%
150%
20000 116.0%
107.2%

15000 81.8% 74.1% 100%

58.9% 53.6%
10000 48.2% 45.0%
33.9%
50%
5000
16.2 54.9 162.5 295.6 514.4 1220.1 2527.7 5459.2 8673.9 12856.0 19749.8 28637.2 38351.7
0 0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Analysys www.analysys.cn

201622704.8
2016/9/6 56
20151191260%

1000
912

800

571
600

350
400
191
200
52
0.5 19
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 57


1.0
2.0
3.0

4.0

2016/9/6 58


25% 25.5%
19%
22%
17.4%
20%

12%

15%

15.7%
9.5%

10%

2.8%
5%
3.5%
1% 0.8% OTC

0
1999 2005 2010

2016/9/6 59


2008-2015 2015
-
150%
2500 160%
2063.8 140%
2000
120%

1500 1289.9 100%

72% 75%
68% 80%
60% 60%
1000 53% 806.2 60%
460.1 40%
500 268.2
41.7 70.1 107.4 20%
0 0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Analysys www.analysys.cn

20161402.4
2016/9/6 60

APP

APP 1121-1128

29
APP

350
25 300 345.6
250 204.9 219.1 216.9
195.3 192.1
18 200 164.2
123.0
150
16 100 56.4 59.9 60.7 64.5
31.8 32.0 36.4 41.1
50
15 0
11.21 11.22 .11.23 11.24 11.25 11.26 11.27 11.28
APPAPP
13 201545.4
1.2
enfoTech

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 61


2016/9/6 62

20154 2016-2018

, 4.5%
4500 4,060.9 250%
229.6%
, 7.8% 4000
3500 200%
Uber, 8.7% 2,831.7
Uber 3000
174.1% 150%
2500
1,868.3
2000
100%
1500
, 1000 681.6
50%
79.0% 43.4%
500 206.8 51.6%
0 0%
2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
APP
APPAPP
20162101.94 APP
enfoTech

Analysys www.analysys.cn Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016806.4
2016/9/6 63

2016Q2 2016-2018

3000 220%
200%
35.5% 2500 201.1% 180%
160%
35.5% 2000
140%
21.1% 34.2% 114.4%
120%
1500
100%
21.1% 67.1% 80%
1000 49.9%
60%
40%
500
34.2% 9.2%
152 457 980 1638 2455 20%
0 0%
2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

Analysys www.analysys.cn Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016435.2
2016/9/6 64
5000

2016Q2 2011-2018

12000 60%
52.3%
10.0% 49.6%
72.9%
10000 45.2%
40.6%
17.2% 8000 40%
31.3% 34.4%
17.2% 28.0% 26.7%
6000

4000 20%
10.0%
72.9%
2000
1,297 1,704 2,180 3,167 4,738 6,663 8,955 11,345
0 0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Analysys www.analysys.cn Analysys www.analysys.cn

20163360.1
2016/9/6 65


2015 2011-2015


1200 100%

19.2% 43.7%
75%
19.4% 800 57.6%
7.6% 43.7% 53.1%
10.1% 50%

30.7% 32.9%
10.1% 7.6%
400 25.3%
19.2% 25%
19.4%

251.6 328.8 412.1 547.4 862.6

0 0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Analysys www.analysys.cn
2016569.5
Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 66

2013-2015
100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 67


2016/9/6 68


201514.3
20%
4.23 20154365

5020
1.55 75

297
1970 1025

42

2016/9/6 69


2016203.3

1500

1000

40000

1330

2016/9/6 70


2016/9/6 71


2016/9/6 72


2016/9/6 73
,50%
, 30%

2010-2015 2010-2015
105 3% 880 10%

9%
780 7.9%
7.7%
100 2% 8%
680
6.2% 7%
1.5% 5.8%
580 5.3%
95 2% 6%
1.2%
480 5%
0.9%
90 0.8% 0.8% 1% 4%
380
3%
280
85 1% 2%
180
1%
93.9 95.3 96.2 97.4 98.2 99.0 584 620 668 721 759 803
80 0% 80 0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Analysys www.analysys.cn Analysys www.analysys.cn

2016/9/6 74
B2C
1%

2011-2015 2010-2015B2C

160 300%
18,080 18.5% 20% 250.0%
140
16.7% 250%
16,080
15.2% 120
14,080
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172.6%
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2016/9/6 78
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