Moving Average

Tahun Unit n=2 n=3 n=4

JANUARI 1711600 #N/A #N/A #N/A
FEBUARI 1521400 1616500 #N/A #N/A
MMARET 1521400 1521400 1584800 #N/A
APRIL 1711600 1616500 1584800 1616500
MEI 1521400 1616500 1584800 1568950
JUNI 1711600 1616500 1648200 1616500
JULI 1521400 1616500 1584800 1616500
AGUSTUS 1521400 1521400 1584800 1568950
SEPTEMBER 1711600 1616500 1584800 1616500
OKTOBER 1331200 1521400 1521400 1521400
NOVEMBER 1391200 1361200 1478000 1488850
DESEMBER 1901700 1646450 1541367 1583925
 Peramalan Penjualan
Bulan % Harga/ Unit
Penjualan perbulan

Januari 9% 142,200 1,711,600 243,389,520,000

Februari 8% 126,400 1,521,400 192,304,960,000
Maret 8% 126,400 1,521,400 192,304,960,000
April 9% 142,200 1,711,600 243,389,520,000
Mei 8% 126,400 1,521,400 192,304,960,000
Juni 9% 142,200 1,711,600 243,389,520,000
1,580,000
Juli 8% 126,400 1,521,400 192,304,960,000
Agustus 8% 126,400 1,521,400 192,304,960,000
Septembe 9% 142,200 1,711,600 243,389,520,000
Oktober 7% 110,600 1,331,200 147,230,720,000
Nopembe 7% 110,600 1,331,200 147,230,720,000
Desember 10% 158,000 1,901,700 300,468,600,000
1,580,000 2,530,012,920,000
 PERUSAHAAN GANJEL REEL

Yt Baseline
t kuartal The Kotak MA2 CMA2
1 1 1,711,600 - -
2 2 1,521,400 1,616,500 - 1,568,950
3 1 1,521,400 1,521,400 67,246 1,568,950
4 2 1,711,600 1,616,500 67,246 1,616,500
5 1 1,521,400 1,616,500 95,100 1,568,950
6 2 1,521,400 1,521,400 67,246 1,568,950
7 1 1,711,600 1,616,500 67,246 1,568,950
8 2 1,331,200 1,521,400 150,366
9 1
10 2

Season Index
Quarter S
1 1.010
P
2 0.999 12

10
Y X
Yt/St +t 8

Value
6
SUMMARY OUTPUT
4
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.8131 2
R Square 0.6611
0
Adjusted R Square 0.6047 f(x) =
Standard Error 656161.3552 R = 0
Observations 8.0000

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 1 5.040E+12 5.040E+12 1.171E+01
Residual 6 2.583E+12 4.305E+11
Total 7 7.624E+12

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 9939341.1695 511276.8088977 19.440234715 1.1998697E-06
X Variable 1 346423.26645 101247.8952222 3.4215354867 0.0141170882
AAN GANJEL REEL

Y/CMA2 St*Tt
S I S Y/S T Forecast
1.01 1,694,482 10,285,764 10,389,674
0.97 1.00 1,522,305 10,632,188 10,625,869
0.97 1.01 1,506,184 10,978,611 11,089,520
1.06 1.00 1,712,618 11,325,034 11,318,303
0.97 1.01 1,506,184 11,671,458 11,789,366
0.97 1.00 1,522,305 12,017,881 12,010,738
1.09 1.01 1,694,482 12,364,304 12,489,212
1.00 1,331,992 12,710,727 12,703,173
1.01 13,057,150.57 13,189,057.79
1.00 13,403,573.83 13,395,607.74

PERAMALAN PENJUALAN (unit)

12

10
Actual
8 Column G
Column L
Value

6 Linear (Column
L)
4

0
f(x) = Data Point
R = 0

Significance F
1.412E-02

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%

8688291.889 11190390.45 8688291.889019 11190390.45002
98678.592209 594167.9407 98678.59220929 594167.9407005