26/10/2016

Introduction
Probability is an analysis of the likelihood that an event
will happen.
The mathematical theory of probability was first
Chapter 6 introduced by French mathematicians Blaise Pascal
(16231662) and Pierre Fermat (16011665), when they
were trying to solve some gambling problems involving
dice.
Probability (Part 1) The theory of probability has been widely applied in
various fields of study such as medicine, engineering,
(page 254) meteorology, earthquake prediction, agriculture,
marketing and finance.

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Three different conceptual approaches to probability. Permutations (pg 255)

1. The classic approach, where the probability is
A permutation is any particular arrangement of r
computed by finding the ratio of the number of
objects which are selected from a set of n distinct
possible outcomes included in event A to the number
objects, where r n.
of possible outcomes included in the sample space.
The formula to determine the number of permutations
2. The relative frequency approach, where the
probability is the proportion of the frequency of a is as follows.
favorable outcome which occurs in a number of
observations or experiments. (a) Where repetition is allowed: When we have n
3. The subjective approach, where the probability is things to choose from ... We have n choices each time.
the degree of belief an event will occur by an When choosing r of them, the permutations are:
individual based on the evidence and the
information provided. n n ... (r times) = nr

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 26/10/2016

b) Where repetition is not allowed: In this case,

we have to reduce the number of available
choices each time. The formula to determine
the number of permutations is:
n!
N
Pr
(n r )!

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Example: Thus, we have twelve arrangements listed out.

The number of arrangements can be calculated
Consider the number of ways of arranging two
using:
letters selected from letters A, B, C and D. The
arrangements are: n!
N
Pr
(n r )!
4!
12
(4 2)!

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If only one letter is selected from A, B, C and D, then Example (pg 256)
4!
the number of arrangements 4 P1 4 . The A doctor has three examination rooms. There are six
(4 1)! patients in the waiting room. In how many different
arrangements are A, B, C and D.
ways can the patients be assigned to the examination
If three letters are selected and arranged, then the rooms?
4!
number of arrangements = 4 P3 = 24.
( 4 3)!
If all four letters are selected, then the number of
4!
arrangements = 4 P4 = 4! = 24.
(4 4)!

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Solution
Example (pg 256)
Let n = the number of patients = 6 Given six digits 1,2,3,4,5 and 6.
r = the number of rooms = 3 a) Determine the number of four-digit numbers
Using the permutation formula, we get that can be formed using the digits if
n! repetition is allowed.
n
Pr
(n r )! b) Determine the number of four-digit numbers
6! that can be formed using the digits if no
6
p3
(6 3)! repetition is allowed.

6.5.4.3.2.1
120 c) How many four-digits numbers greater than
3.2.1 4,000 can be formed using the digits given
without repetition?

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 26/10/2016

Solution: Given n objects of which p are alike, q are alike

and r are alike, the number of permutations can be
computed using the following formula

n!
p!q!r!

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Example (pg 257) Solution

How many different permutations can be formed There are eleven letters of which two are letter I and two
from the word PROBABILITY? are letter B. Thus, the number of permutations is
11! 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

2!2! 2 1 2 1

= 9,979,200

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Combinations (pg 257) Example (pg 257)

How many ways can a student choose four out of six
A combination is the number of ways in selecting questions in an examination?
r objects from n distinct objects where the order Solution
is not important. n = 6, r = 4
6!
The formula used to determine the number of 6
C4
combinations is 4!(6 4)!
n! 6 5 4 3 2 1
N
Cr 15
r!(n r )! 4 3 2 1 2 1

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Example (pg 258) So, whats the difference ?

There are twelve people entering a room where there are
In English we use the word "combination" loosely, without
only ten chairs. How many ways can two people be thinking if the order of things is important. In other words:
chosen to remain standing? 1. "My fruit salad is a combination of apples, grapes and
Solution bananas" We don't care what order the fruits are in, they
could also be "bananas, grapes and apples" or "grapes,
n = 12, r = 2 apples and bananas", its the same fruit salad.
12! 2. "The combination to the safe is 472". Now we do care
12
C2 about the order. "724" won't work, nor will "247". It has to be
2!(12 2)!
exactly 4-7-2. (So this is permutation).
12 1110 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
66
4 3 2 1 2 1 So, in Mathematics we use more accurate language:
If the position or order is not important, it is a
Combination.
If the order is important, it is a Permutation.

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