26/10/2016

The Rules of Probability

Event and Sample Space
Sample space, S is the possible outcomes of an
Chapter 6 experiment.
If we toss a coin, the possible outcomes are either
head (H) or tail (T), so the sample space is s = {H, T}
Probability (Part 2) and the number of elements or possible outcomes is
two and we write n(s) = 2. If we throw a dice, the
(page 259) possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. The sample
space will be {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and n(s) = 6.

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An event A is a set of outcomes or a subset of the Example (pg 260)

sample space.
If you roll a die, what is the probability of getting
If P(A) denotes the probability of an event A occurring,
then P( A) denotes the probability that A will not occur. a) number 5,
The sum of P(A) and P( A) must always equals one. b) a number less than 4?
Probability is expressed in decimal between 0 and 1. If
we are certain an event will occur, the probability is 1
or if there is no chance that an event will occur, the
probability is 0.
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a) There are six faces on a dice and only one face has b) The possible outcomes less than 4 are 1, 2 and 3.
five dots. The frequency of getting a 5 is 1, and the So, the frequency of outcomes which is less than 4 is
sample size is 6. 3.

3
Probability = number of outcomes included in the event P(less than 4) = 6
sample size 1
=
2
1
Probability of getting 5, P(5) =
6

The Addition Rule o To find the probability of event A or event B

Mutually exclusive events occurring, we sum up the probability that event A
o When event A and event B cannot occur together, will occur and the probability that event B will occur.
they are mutually exclusive. o P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)
o For instance, we have to travel to a place and there
are only two choices, either by bus or taxi. It is not
possible to go by bus and taxi at the same time. So,
the event of going by bus and going by taxi are
mutually exclusive.
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Example (pg 261) Solution:

There are 25 students in a class. Five of them scored A
and ten of them scored B while the others scored C for
Calculus. If a student is selected at random, what is the
probability that the selected student scored A or B in
Calculus?
Let P(A) = probability of students scoring A in Calculus
P(B) = probability of students scoring B in Calculus
5 1
P(A) =
25 5
25 2
P(B) =
25 5
1 2 3
P(A B) = P (A) + P (B)
5 5 5

Non-mutually exclusive events
o If event A and event B are non-mutually exclusive
events, there is a possibility that event A and event
B will happen at the same time.
o For instance, all students are allowed to take either
Mathematics or Statistics or both subjects this
semester. This will result in some of the students
taking either Mathematics or Statistics only, and
some taking both Mathematics and Statistics this
semester.
o In this case, the event of taking Mathematics and
Statistics are non-mutually exclusive.
o The probability that either event A or event B will
occur is the sum of probability of event A and
probability of event B occurring, minus probability of
event A and event B occurring.
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
or
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)
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Example (pg 262)

In a business course in a college, 90% of the students
passed Mathematics, 95% of the students passed
Management, and 88% passed both Mathematics and
Management. A student is selected at random;
Non-mutually exclusive event a) What is the probability that the student passed
Mathematics or Management?
b) What is the probability that the student passed
neither Mathematics nor Management?

Solution b) The probability that the student passed neither

Let S = Mathematics, M = Management Mathematics nor Management
P(S) = 0.9, P(M) = 0.95, P(S M) = 0.88 P(S M) = 1 - P(S M)
= 1 0.97
a) Probability that the student passed Mathematics or = 0.03
Management = P(S M) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)
= 0.9 + 0.95 0.88
= 0.97
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Multiplication Rule o When the two events A and B are statistically

independent, the probability that event A and event
Independent Events
B will occur is the product of the separate
o The two events are statistically independent when probabilities.
the occurrence of one event is not affected by the
o Thus,
result of the other event.
P(A B) =P(A) x P(B)
o For example, if a coin is tossed twice,1 the
probability of getting heads in the first event is 2 ,
o and the probability of getting heads in the second
toss is also 1 no matter what outcome in the first
2
trial is.

Example (pg 263) Non-independent events.

If a couple wants to have two children, what is the
probability of getting a boy and a girl?
Solution
Let P(B) = probability of getting a boy
P(G) = probability of getting a girl
1 1
P(B) = 2 , P(G) = 2
1 1 1
P(B G) = P(B) P(G) = 2 2 4
o When the occurrence of one event is affected by the
occurrence of another event, the two events are non-
independent events.
o This usually happens in sampling without
replacement.
P(A B) = P(A) x P(B/A) or P(B) x P(A/B)
When P(B/A) = P(B), the two events A and B are
independent.
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Example (pg 264) Solution

An English class consists of twelve male and eighteen Let P(M) = probability of a male student
female students. Three of the male students and five of P(F) = probability of a female student
the female students are non-bumiputras. A student is P(N) = probability of a non-bumiputra student
randomly selected. Find the: P(N/M) = probability of a non-bumiputra student
a) probability of selecting a non-bumiputra student, given that the student is a male
b) probability of selecting a male student given that the P(N/F) = probability of a non-bumiputra student
student is a non-bumiputra, and given that the student is a
c) probability of selecting either a male or a non- female
bumiputra student.

12 2 8 4
P(M) = a) P(N) =
30 5 30 15
8 4 3
P(N) = b) P(M/N) =
30 15 8
18 3
P(F) = 30 5 c) Using additive rule,

3 1
P(N/M) = P(M N) = P(M) + P(N) P(M N)
12 4
8
P(N/F) =
18
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From multiplicative rule, Tree Diagram (pg 266)

P(MN) = P(M/N) P(N)
3 4 A tree diagram is used to display the outcomes of an
= experiment which consists of a series of activities.
8 15
= 1 This ensures us that all logical possibilities are
10 considered.
Substituting P(M N) into the additive rule, For example, if a coin is tossed twice, the possible
P(M N) = P(M) + P(N) P(MN) outcomes are {(H H), (H T), (T H), or (T T)}.
2 4 1 17 Using a tree diagram, the possible outcomes can be
= displayed in a clearer way.
5 15 10 30

Let H = head, and

Example (pg 267)
T = tail.
Three companies, A, B and C are competing for a
contract to build a condominium. The probabilities that
companies A, B and C will win the contract are 0.25, 0.45
and 0.3 respectively. If company A, B and C win the
contract, the probability that they will make profits are
0.8, 0.9, 0.7 respectively.
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a) Construct a tree diagram. Solution

b) What is the probability that the companies will make Let A = company A,
profit? B = company B,
c) If the contract is found to be profitable, find the C = company C,
probability that the contract was given to company A.
U = profitable, and
U = unprofitable.

a) b) The probability that profit will be made by the

companies is
P(U) = P(A U) or P(B U) or P(C U)
= 0.2 + 0.405 + 0.21
= 0.815
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c) If the contract is found to be profitable, the probability

that the contract will be given to company A is
P(A/U) = P(AU)
P(U)
= .20
0.815

= 0.245