What is Probabilistic and Deterministic approach for calculating

Damage Stability
Calculating Damage Stability:

Damage Stability calculations are required in order to achieve a minimum degree of safety
after flooding.
In order to assess the behavior of the vessel after damage two approaches have been
developed:-
1) Deterministic 2) Probabilistic
These are to be applied depending on the type of ship.

Deterministic Approach:

In this approach the ships subdivision is based on the theoretical principles.

It is based on standard dimension of damage extending anywhere along the ships length or
between transverse bulkheads depending on the relevant requirements
1) The consequence of such standard of damage is the creation of a group of damage
cases, the no. of which and as well as no. of compartments involved in each case, depends
on ships dimensions and internal sub-divisions.
2) For each loading condition, each damage case is to be considered and all applicable
criteria are to be complied with.
3) Different deterministic methods in damage stability have been developed depending on
ships type, on freeboard reduction and the kind of cargo carried.
4) The deterministic method to be applied for passenger ships, oil tankers, chemical
tankers, gas carriers and special purpose ships.5) The deterministic method to be applied
in cases of free board reduction.

Probabilistic Approach:

The probabilistic method applies to cargo ships of length more than 80 m and for which no
deterministic method applies.
1) The probabilistic method was devised in the year 1973.
2) This showed a pattern in accidents which could be used in improving the design of the
ships. For eg: Most damage were sustained in the forward part of the ship hence it seemed
logical, to improve the standards of subdivisions forward rather than towards the stern.
3) The probabilistic method is based on statistical evidence concerning what actually
happens when ships collide, in terms of sea state and weather conditions, extent and
location of damage, speed and course of the ship and whether the ship survived or sank.
4) Therefore probabilistic concept is believed to be more realistic than the earlier
deterministic method, in which ships subdivision is based on theoretical principles.
5) It is based on three probabilities related to sub-division and damage
stabilityrequirements:
1) Probability that the ship may be damaged (Probability of occurance)2) Probability as to
the location of damage and extent of floodingDepends on arrangement of W/T sub-divisions
which have a direct influence on the location and extent of hull damage.
3) Probability to assess the ability of the ship to survive in flooded Situation (Probability of
Survival)Depends on the buoyancy and stability in flooded condition which will further
depend on the following:-
a) Location and extent of damage
b) Permeability of flooded space
c) Draft and stability before flooding
d) Applied forces and moments

The probabilistic method takes the probability of survival after collision as a measure of ship
safety in damaged condition, referred to as ATTAINED SUB-DIVISION INDEX A and a
REQUIRED SUB-DIVISION INDEX R which is defined by IMO in terms of persons and size of
vessel Criteria

ATTAINED SUB-DIVISION INDEX (A) >REQUIRED SUB-DIVISION INDEX (R)

6) The damage stability calculations are performed for a limited no. of drafts and relevant
GM values in order to draw a minimum GM curve, where the attained subdivision index A
achieves the minimum required level of safety R.

7) For cargo ships, each case of damage is not required to comply with the applicable
criteria, but the attained index A, which is the sum of contribution of all damage cases, is to
be equal or greater than R.

The subdivision of a ship is considered sufficient if the attained subdivision index A is

greater than the required sub division index R.
The partial indices As Ap Al should not be less than 0.9R for passenger ships and 0.5R for
cargo ships.
Requirement for sub-division and damage stabilityAttained sub-division index
A > Required sub-division index RAttained sub division index A
The attained sub division index A is obtained by the summation of the partial indices
calculated for the drafts ds, dp & dl as per below formula.
A = 0.4As + 0.4Ap + 0.2A1
Where ds = deepest sub division draft
dp = partial sub division draft
dl = light service draft
Each partial index is a summation of contribution of all damage cases taken into
consideration using the below formula
Where A = Pi x Si
i = represents each compartment or group of compartment under consideration
Pi = accounts for probability that only the compartment or group of compartments under
consideration may be flooded disregarding horizontal sub-divisions.
Si = accounts for the probability of survival after flooding of compartments or group of
compartments under consideration including effects of horizontal sub-divisions.
The detailed calculation of Pi & Si is given in Regulation 7.1 & 7.2 of Chapter II-1 of SOLAS

Required sub division index R

The degree of subdivision to be provided shall be determined by the required sub division
index R which is as follows:
For cargo ships greater than 100m in length (Ls)
R = 1 - 128
Ls + 152
 Which is fixed for the ship as per the size and no of persons.

DAMAGE STABILITY INFORMATION FOR SHIP MASTERS

A booklet containing the following:

1) A curve of Minimum operational GM versus DRAUGHT. (Complying with Intact stability,

sub-division & damage stability requirements)
ORA curve of Maximum allowable KG versus DRAUGHT2) Instructions for operation of
cross flooding arrangements. 3) Other data and aids which may be required for
maintaining stability after damage.
DAMAGE STABILITY BOOKLET

1. 1. General Description:
8) Mention of SOLAS requirements
9) Calculation of Required sub-division index R for the vessel
10) Principal dimensions
1. 2. Sub-Division and Damage cases:
11) Damage cases are divided into 1, 2 or more compartment damage cases. Each case is
numbered and referred to that no. in rest of the booklet.
12) Each compartment zone is numbered & its dimensions to be used for calculation of Pi &
Si in damaged condition.
1. 3. Description of openings:
A plan or a table of non-watertight openings & their particulars are given. All openings are
numbered.
1. 4. Longitudinal and Horizontal Sub-divisions:
1. 5. Capacity Tables:
CG and Volumes of all individual compartments within the zones are listed.
1. 6. Summary of Loading conditions for deepest sub-division and assumed partial sub-divisions load lines
and Light ship conditions:
1. 7. Summary of Damage Cases:
Detailed damage cases and assumed damage along with openings are mentioned
1. 8. Calculation of factor Pi:
P for each damage case is given in Tabular form
1. 9. Calculation of factor Si:
S for each damage condition is given in Tabular form
10. Typical damage cases for damaged stability for particular loading condition and damage
cases:Computer print outs of the loadicator calculations for a few cases are included to give
the angle of list, trim changes and height of different points from the waterline, GZ curve for
the damaged condition is also included.
11. Summary of Attained sub-division index A:All individual compartments Pi x Si is
calculated to arrive at Pi x Si
12. Minimum GM curve complying with damaged stability:GM curve is given against
displacement. Importance is that it gives the minimum GM required for all conditions of
loading.

How do you calculate Damage Stability on Board?

N Make a desired loading plan
N Investigate trim, draft, propeller immersion, intact stability criteria
(Actual KG < Max. allowable KG)
N If draft is above x mtrs (this value differs from ship to ship). Verify weights loaded in
cargo tanks or holds against the table showing minimum required loading weight at various
drafts
(Actual weight should be > minimum weight required)
N Go to maximum allowable KG curve with KG (corrected for FSC) and Draft of intact
Stability condition regardless of Trim.
N If KG is in stable zone vessel will survive.
N If KG is not in stable zone, calculate Maximum Allowable KG value by Linear interpolation
with trim of Intact condition.
N If this calculated allowable KG > Actual intact KG, vessel will survive.
N If calculated allowable KG < Actual intact KG vessel may not survive.

Intact Stability Criteria

UNSTABLE ZONE

Max
Allowable

Damage Stability Criteria

KG 2 m by Stern

1m by Stern

1m by Bow
STABLE ZONE

Drafts

CALCULATION OF DAMAGE STABILITY

To check if you would float in a damaged condition you would need to know your RESERVE BUOYANCY and the ANGLE
OF IMMERSION.
As a thumb rule, the RESERVE BUOYANCY = FREEBOARD X TPC

If the DISPLACEMENT of the compartment damaged is more than the INITIAL RESERVE BUOYANCY, the ship will
definitely go down.

The ANGLE OF DECK EDGE IMMERSION can be obtained from the GENERAL ARRANGEMENT OF MIDSHIP
PLAN by using the new draft and a protractor.

We now further need to calculate the following to check the survivability of the vessel
1) Draft
2) GM
3) Trim, and
4) Angle of heel.

To start with, you must have the stability data of your original intact condition available. All the calculations here are based
on the CONSTANT DISPLACEMENT method of calculation.

v Calculating MEAN DRAFT

MEAN SINKAGE = (mV)/ (A-a)
m = Permeability
V= Volume of compartment
A=Water Plane Area = 100 TPC/1.025
a= Water Plane Area of damaged compartment
New MEAN DRAFT = INITIAL MEAN DRAFT + SINKAGE.

v Calculating GM
G is the same position as before. However, M moves. The initial KG is Known.
Final GM = KM-KG
KM = KB + BM
Therefore
v GM = KB + BM KG
New KB = (DKB + V (D +S/2) / D
D = Volume of Displacement (Unchanged)
KB = Initial KB
V= Volume of compartment
D= Initial Draft
S= Sinkage (Previously Calculated

To find BM (When not heeled)

BM = BM l b3/12D
BM =Initial BM
Where l = length of W.P.Area of Compt.
b = breadth of ----------do ------------.
D = initial displacement.
The above is true for only symmetrical flooding (No List).

To find BM (When heeled)

BM = BM l b3/12 D - l b X2/D
Where X Distance of water plane area of compartment from centerline (This can be measured of from the general
arrangement plan)
Therefore New or Final
GM = KB+ BM KG

v To find the trim, we need to find the MCTC and the new LCF.
MCTC = D GML/ 100L @ D BML/100L
Where L = LBP.
BML is found in a similar way as the transverse BM.
New BML = BML- bl3/12 D - lbY2/D
Where Y = Distance of water plane area of compartment from centerline (This can also be measured of from the general
arrangement plan)
BML or KML is found in the Stability Booklet KML = KM + BML
To find the position of the new LCF
Position of new LCF = (A x LCF a x Y ) / (A-a)
Remember that LCF will shift towards the damaged compartment.
Y=Center of Gravity of compartment from amidships
A=Water plane area
a= Water plane area of damaged compartment
LCF = Original LCF from amidships

v To find Trim :
Change in Trim = VY / MCTC
V= Volume of compartment
Y = Distance of center of Gravity of compartment from new LCF
MCTC = Previously calculated.
New Trim = Old Trim Change in Trim

Change in Trim will be in the direction of the damaged compartment. This can be applied to the new hydrostatic draft
calculated earlier.

v To calculate angle of heel:

Tan q = VX/ D GM
q = angle of heel
V= Volume of damaged compartment
X = Distance of CG of compartment from centerline.
(VX= Listing moment)
D = Displacement
GM = New GM (Calculated earlier)