A mVIEW OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

I N GEOSTATISTICS

H . M. P a r k e r
P l u o r Utah, I n c .
San Mateo, C a l i f o r n i a

R. L. Sandefur
Utah I n t e r n a t i o n a l , I n c .
San F r a n c i s c o , C a l i f o r n i a

T h i s p a p e r i s t o be p r e s e n t e d a t t h e AIME Annual Meeting,

Las Vegas, Nevada - February 22-26, 1 9 7 6
 I

ABSTRACT

During the past year a number of significant advances in geosta-

tistics have been published. These were presented at the 13th

APCOM Symposium in Clausthal, Germany and at a NATO Advanced Study
Institute on Geostatistics in Rome, Italy.

Of greatest importance is the work that has been done in establish-

ing methods which correctly predict the cutoff grade-tonnage curves,

and the average grade of ore-tonnage curves for deposits in which

'ore and waste are intermingled.

Grade-tonnage curves based on estimates made from widely spaced

exploration data have been found to underestimate the grade of ore

and overestimate the tonnage present. This problem has been

remedied by the calculation of conditional probability distributions

for the unknown grade of a block.

Another advance has been made in the field of geostatistical

estimation for deposits in which a trend is present. Previously a

technique known as universal kriging has been used, which involves

much subjective judgement as to the trend fitted. A new technique,

generalized increments, allows computer estimation of such deposits

with much less subjective judgement. Computational efficiency of

geostatistical methods has continued to improve to a point where a

geostatistical estimate can be obtained for little more than the

cost of any other computerized method.
 INTRODUCTION

In October 1975, two conferences were held in Europe at which several

significant papers on mining geostatistics were presented. These 1
were the 13th International Symposium on the Application of Computers

and Mathematics in the Mineral Industries at the Technical University

in Clausthal, Germany, and a NATO Advanced Study Institute on

Geostatistics in Rome, Italy. As only about twenty Americans attended

these meetings, and the proceedings have not yet been widely

disseminated, we review in this paper some of the ideas which were

presented.

USE OF CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS TO PREDICT

GRADE-TONNAGE CURVES AND DESIGN MINES

Brief Review of the Geostatistical Methods and Their Shortcomings

For the last 20 years, one of the major aims of geostatistics has

been to estimate with minimum variance the grades of blocks within

the mining area using nearby samples. One estimator with these

characteristics is the kriging estimator:

where:

z* = estimated grade of a block

z; = grade of a sample

and the A; are chosen so that the mean squared error of estimate

E (z*-Z) is minimized.
It is to be emphasized that kriging estimates are local in nature.
Generally fewer than ten samples are used to estimate a block.

To obtain a global estimate of the frequency distribution of grade,

two approaches have been followed. It is shown (David,1372) that the
distribution of blocks within a deposit which has a more-or-less
stationary mean grade throughout will have an estimated mean grade
equivalent to the mean grade of the samples. The variance will be
given by the average covariance between the grade of two sample-sized
volumes as they are independently moved around the block.

If the grades of samples are approximately normally distributed, as

for instance in many iron ore deposits, the distribution of the
blocks will be nearly normal also, and given the mean and variance
calculated above, the correct grade-tonnage curves may be found.
David (1972) and Switzer and Parker (1976) have shown that when the
samples are lognormally distributed, and the blocks are not so
large as to make the difference in variance between them and the
samples great, that the blocks will also be approximately lognormally
distributed.

klowever, if the samples do not follow one of these standard

distributions, it is impossible knowing simply the mean and variance
to construct the frequency distribution fox blocks. Thus a second

method has been used, (for esample Muijbregts and Segovia 1973)
which is simply comprised of the frequency distribution of the krigcd
estimates. I-iuijbregts (1976) and David (1972) show that the
variance of block grades is:

V a r ( B l o c k s ) = ~ a ( Er s t i m a t e s ) + V a r ( E r r o r s ) - V a r ( E s t i m a t e of Mean G r a d e ) (2)

Since kriging minimizes the variance of the errors of estimate (the

second term on the right hand side), and the variance of these errors

is always greater than the variance of the estimate of mean grade,

it follows that the kriged estimates have a variance close to but

always less than the variance for blocks. Since the kriged estimates

are local estimates, the frequency distribution of them should have

a shape very similar to that of blocks in the ground.

When kriging was first developed, it was used primarily to estimate

bedded deposits for which the contacts between ore and waste were

sharp and well defined. Samples and blocks being estimated in such
deposits, are almost entirely in ore. When this is the case,

inaccuracies in the shape of the grade-tonnage curve, based on the

estimates, is of little importance because no selective segregation

of ore and waste within the ore zone is done.

In recent years, the kriging technique has been applied to other

types of deposits, for example, porphyry copper (~uijbregtsand

Seggvia, 1973), uranium (Guaraccio, 1976), and magmatic sulfide

deposits (Parker, 1975). For these deposits, waste and ore are often

intermingled to the extent that kriging must be done using samples

which aze both above and below the cutoff grade. In addition, the

error of estimate may be significantly large, leading to the

frequency distribution of estimates being a poor representation of
the real one. This is illustrated in Figure 1.
 5
In addition, attempts to define ore-waste contacts based on the

estimates may be seriously in error as is illustrated in Figure 2

from Parker and Switzer (1975). The combination of high and low
grade samples yields estimates above the cutoff grade and leads to

overestimation of the tonnage of ore and underestimation of its

average grade. For a massive sulfide deposit, accepting the

grade-tonnage curve based on the kriged estimates could lead to

overdesign of crushing facilities and underdesign of flotation

circuits.

Conditional Probability Distributions

A new method for dealing with the problem is that of finding

conditional probability distributions (Parker, 1975, Parker and

Switzer, 1976). The probability distribution of grade is estimated

for a block conditional on the samples. Then we may obtain the

grade-tonnage curve using the following formula:

T* = z T i P (Zi > Zc)

ore
1= 1

where :

T* estimated tonnage of ore;

ore =

Tt' = tonnage contained in the ith block;

P(Z;>Z ) = probability the grade of block Z is above the
C

cutoff grade Zc given data from nearby samples.

The estimated grade of ore will be:

Z*
ore .,
= L T i P (Zi> Z IT;', o r e
C
where:

i s t11e e x p e c t e d v a l u e f o r t h a t p o r t i o n o f t h e
'i , ore
conditional probcbility distribution f o r the ith block t h a t

i s a b o v e Zc.

U s e of C
-- o n d i t i o n a l P r o b a b i l - i t y D i s t r i b u t i o n s i n Mine D e s i g n

Most m i n e d e s i g n m e t h o d s (Lerchs-Grossman, moving c o n e , e t c . ) w e i g h t

t h e p o s i t i v e valued blocks against t h e negative valued ones i n

e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e limits of n i n i n g . These v a l u e s a r e g e n e r a l l y t h o s e

corresponding t o t h e e s t i m a t e d g r a d e of t h e block. Although t h e

e s t i m a t e o f g r a d e may b e u n b i a s e d , t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g v a l u e a s s i g n e d

w i l l not be its expected value, unless t h e value i s a l i n e a r function

of grade (Parker, 1975). I n m o s t cases, t h e v a l u e i s n o t a l i n e a r

f u n c t i o n of g r a d e . Consider t h e following case:

A porphyry copper has a mining c o s t o f $0.55/ton,

m i l l i n g c o s t of $2.75 p e r t o n , and a n e t s m e l t e r
r e t u r n (NSR! $ 0 . 4 0 p e r l b . o f c o p p e r c o n t a i n e d i n
concentrates. The r e c o v e r y i s assumed t o b e 9 0 % .
R o y a l t i e s a r e 5 % NSR f o r NSR l e s s t h a n $ 5 . 0 0 , 8 % NSR
f o r NSR b e t w e e n $ 5 . 0 0 a n d $ 1 0 . 0 0 a n d 1.08 NSR f o r
NSR g r e a t e r t h a n $ 1 0 . G O .

F i g u r e 3 shows ( s o l i d l i n e ) a curve o f v a l u e v e r s u s g r a d e . A value

oE - $ 0 . 5 5 / t o n i s a s s i g n e d t o q r a d e s less t h a n t h e c u t o f f g r a d e , which

i s 0 . 4 8 % Cu. !

Next a s s u m e t h a t t h e c o n d i t i o n a l p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s a r e

l o g n o r m a l w i t h s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n 0 . 1 6 % Cu. I n Figure 3 , t h e

expected value per t o n is p l o t t e d ( d a s h e d l i n e ) v e r s u s t h e mean

grade of t h e s e c o n d i t i o n a l p r . o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s . It is clear

t h a t where t h e e s t i m a t e d gra.de f o r a b l o c k i s c l o s e t o t h e c u t o f f
grade and the value curve is most nonlinear, that the expected value
for a block is significantly greater than the value associated with
its estimated grade. This leads us to speculate that open pits,
which are planned based on block values corresponding to estimates,
are conservatively designed. Along the upper portions of the curve,
a)
the expected value of the blocks nearly coincides with the value of
the estimated grade. This is because the value-grade curve is linear
over nearly the entire conditional probability distributions with
high grade means.

Finding the Conditional Probability Distributions

Derivation of the conditional probability distribution is not a
problem if the block grades are normally distributed as is shown in
Parker (1975). The distribution will be normal and will have mean
equivalent to that of the kriged estimate:
7

where :
hik is the coefficient found by kriging the kth point of
m points within the block using the n samples of which is one.

The variance of the conditional probability distribution is

(cf. Rao 1965, Parker 1375)
 8

In Figure 4 , conditional probability distributions are shown for

blocks at the Area 5 nickel, copper, cobalt deposit in Warren, Maine

(Parker, 1975, Parker and Switzer, 1975). Here two populations are

present - one normally distributed representing massive sulfides

and the other lognormally distributed corresponding to disseminated

sulfides. The conditional probability distributions are bimodal and

their shape is strongly influenced by the values of samples

surrounding the blocks (Figure 5). Massive sulfides are considered

to be those above 3.775 lbs Ni/cu.ft. Disseminated sulfides are

those below.

Disjunctive Kriging

As Matheron (1976a) points out, when the grade is not normally

distributed, the joint distribution of the n sample points and the

block being estimated is n+l dimensional and has an indeterminate

shape. Therefore, computation of the conditional probability

distribution is impossible.

To solve the problem, Matheron (1976a,b) and Marechal (1976) have

introduced disjunctive kriging and associated transformations which

they refer to as transfer functions. These permit not only the

estimation of conditional probability distributions for individual

block grades, but also the estimation of the average grade and

proportion of small selective mining blocks (of size v) which will be

above the cutoff grade within larger blocks (of size V ) defined by

exploration drilling. It is thus possible to define a grade tonnage

curve without having to estimate the conditional distribution for
each selective mining block, resulting in a considerable computational
saving.

Unfortunately, this saving has its price. Implementation of the

disjunctive kriging method requires the assumption that the
frequency distribution of grade (rather than only the mean and
variance, which is required by normal kriging) is stationary over
the deposit, or a large portion of it. Further, the disjunctive
kriging estimator depends on the existence of a large sample
population, so that the observed histogram will closely resemble that
of the grade within the deposit.

The disjunctive kriging method also suffers from a mathematical

complexity which is an order of magnitude greater than the other
methods. A sketch is provided here, and the reader is urged to

consult the references or their authors for additional information.

First, Matheron (1976b) recognizes that it is possible to find a

transfer function @(y) such that the punctual or sample grade Z may
be expressed in terms of a standard normal variate:
 10
~ ( y may
) be defined (Marechal 1976):

whcrc:

H n ( y ) is a non-normalized hermite polynomial:

and g ( y ) is the standard normal density function.

The YJn are found experimentally to be those coefficients which

satisfy:

Usually the number of terms in the expansion needed to properly

express @ ( y ) is small. Marechal (1976) found six were sufficient

for a transforming a lognormal distribution, but 15 were needed for

a more complicated one.

Before continuing, it is necessary to compute the autocorrelation of

y as a function of distance:
 12

T h e p r o p o r t i o n o f s m a l l b l o c k s a b o v e t h e c u t o f f g r a d e may b e

estimated:

where:

The a v e r a g e g r a d e o f t h e s e b l o c k s may b e e s t i m a t e d :

I n o b t a i n i n g t h i s r e s u l t , t h e f a c t t h a t Ho(y) = 1 and CAE = 1 is

used.

A s a n example o f t h e improvement w h i c h d i s j u n c t i v e k r i g i n g a l l o w s ,

F i g u r e 6 i s r e p r o d u c e d from M a r e c h a l (1975). H e r e t h e grade-tonnage

c u r v e s e s t i m a t e d by n o r m a l k r i g i n g a n d d i s j u n c t i v e k r i g i n g a r e

shown f o r a p o r t i o n o f t h e C h u q u i c a m a t a c o p p e r d e p o s i t . The l a t t e r

f o l l o w s t h e c u r v e o f a c t u a l b l o c k g r a d e s ( a s d e t e r m i n e d by c l o s e l y -

spaced b l a s t h o l e samples) verv well. ' For a c u t o f f g r a d e of 1 . 5 %

c o p p e r , k r i g i n g f o r e c a s t s 95% o f t h e b l o c k s w i l l b e o r e . Disjunctive .
k r i g i n g f o r e c a s t s 81%, while t h e a c t u a l grades g i v e 83%.
 13
COMPUTATIONAL ADVANCES AND REFINEMENTS

Computations Required in a Geosta-tistical Study

The computations required by a geostatistical study are nearly
always sufficiently complex and lengthy as to require the use of
computer programming, The basic procedure for any geostatistical

study is as follows:
1. Define variables
2. Variogram variables
3. Define variogram model
4. Develop kriging plan
5. Krige variables for desired results.

Typically considerable human interpretation is required in steps 1,

3 and 4. An automatic procedure, generalized increments has been
developed to streamline portions of the procedure. Efficient exe-
cution of steps 2 and 5 involves a number of computational nuances
which bring the cost of geostatistical ore reserve estimation to a
level comparable with inverse distance weighting methods.

Generalized Increments
A basic problem in defining variables for a geostatistical study is

that it is often unknown whether the variables are stationary or not.

Two techniques, universal kriging and generalized increments, can
handle both stationary and non-stationary variables. Of the two
I

methods, generalized increments is preferred because it can be done

automatically. The theory of generalized increments is discussed
 14
by M a t h e r o n ( 1 9 7 3 ) . The b a s i s o f t h e method c a n b e i l l u s t r a t e d by

two s i m p l e e x a m p l e s .

S u p p o s e w e h a v e a p e r f e c t p l a n e f o r t o p o f seam s t r u c t u r e f o r some

f o r m a t i o n a s i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 7. The s t r u c t u r e f o r t h e forma-

t i o n i s d r i l l e d on a r e g u l a r g r i d . Top o f seam e l e v a t i o n s f o r t h e

d r i l l holes, along with t h e f i r s t f i n i t e d i f f e r e n c e s a r e given. If

t h e t o p o f f o r m a t i o n s t r u c t u r e i s a p e r f e c t p a r a b o l a i n s e c t i o n , as

i s shown i n F i g u r e 8 , t h e s u c c e s s i v e d i f f e r e n c e s w i l l become c o n s t a n t

a t t h e second o r d e r .

The t e c h n i q u e i s o b v i o u s : s u c c e s s i v e d i f f e r e n c e s o f any r e g u l a r l y

s a m p l e d p o l y n o m i n a l s u r f a c e w i l l e v e n t u a l l y become s t a t i o n a r y . Gen-

e r a l i z e d i n c r e m e n t s e x t e n d s t h i s d i f f e r e n c i n g t o a l l o w f o r two o r

more d i m e n s i o n s a n d t o c a s e s w h e r e t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n d r i l l h o l e s

is not constant. I f t h e v a r i a b l e b e i n g sampled c a n b e approximated

a s a sum o f a p o l y n o m i n a l t r e n d a n d a random f l u c t u a t i o n , t h e w h o l e

g e o s t a t i s t i c a l p r o c e d u r e c a n b e d o n e a u t o m a t i c a l l y a s o u t l i n e d by

;,elfiner (1976) :

1. Chose a n i n c r e m e n t ( f i r s t d i f f e r e n c e , s e c o n d d i f f e r e n c e ,

etc.)

2. Define t h e g e n e r a l i z e d covariogram f o r t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s

3. E s t i m a t e known p o i n t s by k r i g i n g t h e d i f f e r e n c e s a s if

t h e p o i n t was unknown, a n d t h e n c o m p a r i n g t h e k r i g e d

w i t h t h e known v a l u e

4. S e l e c t t h e i n c r e m e n t which g i v e s t h e b e s t r e s u l t s .
T h i s p r o c e d u r e i s t h e b a s i s f o r t h e programs KRIGEPACK and BLUEPACK

which were d e v e l o p e d by t h e C e n t r e d e Morphologie Mathematique and

Societe Nationale des P e t r o l e s dlAquitane. Delfiner (1976) i n d i c a t e s

t h a t f i r s t o r s e c o n d o r d e r i n c r e m e n t s h a v e been found a d e q u a t e t o

c o v e r most s i t u a t i o n s . The o t h e r a p p r o a c h f o r h a n d l i n g n o n - s t a t i o n -

a r y v a r i a b l e s , u n i v e r s a l k r i g i n g , i s g i v e n i n S a b o r i n ( 1 9 7 6 ) , Matheron

(1971) a n d H u i j b r e g t s and Matheron (1971) .

Variogram C a l c u l a t i o n s

The c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l variogram i s f a i r l y s t r a i g h t

forward. An e f f i c i e n t program ( e x c e p t f o r some u n n e c e s s a r y i n d i r e c t

a d d r e s s i n g ) f o r v a r i o g r a m c a l c u l a t i o n i s g i v e n by David ( 1 9 7 4 ) . A

p a r t i c u l a r l y n i c e f e a t u r e o f t h i s program i s t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e

quanti'ty :
-f

which i s a g e n e r a l i n d i c a t o r o f t h e l i k e l i h o o d o f a t r e n d b e i n g

present. W e have found a u s e f u l e m b e l l i s h m e n t t o t h e program i s t o

->
k e e p c o u n t o f t h e number o f i n d e p e n d e n t p o i n t s a t b o t h Xi and X j 4 . h

u s e d i n t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f a p o i n t on t h e e x p e r i e m e n t a l v a r i o g r a m .

T h i s p r e v e n t s t o o much c o n f i d e n c e b e i n g p l a c e d on t h e v a r i o g r a m

c a l c u l a t e d f o r a d r i l l i n g p a t t e r n l i k e t h a t shown i n F i g u r e 9 , which

i s o f t e n e n c o u n t e r e d i n s t u d y i n g uranium d e p o s i t s . I n t h i s case,

t h e p o i n t on t h e v a r i o g r a m c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g h o l e A and h o l e s i n t h e

d e n s e l y d r i l l e d r e g i o n w i l l b e b a s e d on 2 5 p a i r s , b u t t h e s e p a i r s

a l i include t h e value of hole A.

Krisins Plan

The K r i g i n g p l a n i s a g e n e r a l t e r m f o r t h e p r o c e d u r e u s e d t o c a l c u -

l a t e k r i g e d v a l u e s from s a m p l e v a l u e s . Naive d p p l i c a t i o n of t h e

k r i g i n g e q u a t i o n s f o r a d a t a base of say 1,000 samples l e a d s t o t h e

i n v e r s i o n o f a 1001 X 1001 m a t r i x , which i s a n o n - t r i v i a l p r o b l e m by

anyone's standards.

Given t h e s a m p l e v a l u e s , b l o c k s t o b e e s t i m a t e d , a n d t h e v a r i o g r a m ,

most k r i g i n g p r o g r a m s p r o c e e d a s f o l l o w s :

1. S e l e c t a block

2. S e l e c t a l l samples i n f l u e n c i n g a block

3. C a l c u l a t e c o v a r i a n c e s o f a l l samples (i=l,n) t o obtain

t h e kriging matrix:

4. Invert the kriging matrix

5. C a l c u l a t e t h e c o v a r i a n c e s between b l o c k s and samples

(cia' = n 1 a n d m u l t i p l y by t h e i n v e r s e o f t h e k r i g i n g
m a t r i x t o o b t a i n t h e k r i g i n y w e i g h t s ( X ; , i = l , n ) and

t h e l a g r a n g e m u l t i p l i e r p.

2
6. C a l c u l a t e t h e v a r i a n c e of b l o c k s O B

7. C a l c u l a t e t h e b l o c k e s t i m a t e and e s t i m a t i o n v a r i a n c e
S e l e c t i n g t h e s a m p l e s i n f l u e n c i n g t h e b l o c k i s a d i f f i c u l t problem.

I f t h e v a r i a b l e i s t r u l y s t a t i o n a r y t h e n a l l t h e s a m p l e s s h o u l d be

used, b u t t h i s l e a d s t o an impossibly l a r g e m a t r i x i n v e r s i o n . A good

g e n e r a l r u l e i s f o r a l a r g e nugget e f f e c t -
o r sample i n t e r v a l g r e a t e r

t h a n t h e r a n g e u s e more s a m p l e s , a n d f o r a s m a l l n u g g e t e f f e c t -
and

s a m p l e i n t e r v a l l e s s t h a n t h e r a n g e u s e less s a m p l e s . Obivously

s a m p l e s e l e c t i o n must i n c l u d e b o t h d i r e c t i o n and d i s t a n c e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s .

The d e v e l o p e d s e l e c t i o n c r i t e r i a o b v i o u s l y a f f e c t t h e way t h e sample

f i l e s h o u l d b e s o r t e d and s e a r c h e d . A good d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e sample

s e l e c t i o n p r o b l e m i s g i v e n i n David ( 1 9 7 6 ) .

C a l c u l a t i n g t h e c o v a r i a n c e s between s e l e c t e d s a m p l e s i s s t r a i g h t

f o r w a r d u n l e s s t h e t e c h n i q u e o f random k r i g i n g i s u s e d . I n random

k r i g i n g t h e d a t a i s grouped a c c o r d i n g t o geographic l o c a t i o n a s

shown i n F i g u r e 10.

The a v e r a g e c o v a r i a n c e between t h e b l o c k and t h e g r o u p i n g s a r e c a l -

c u l a t e d and t h e n t h e means o f s a m p l e s w i t h i n t h e b l o c k and g r o u p i n g s

a r e u s e d a s s i n g l e s a m p l e v a l u e s when e s t i m a t i n g t h e b l o c k . This

procedure reduces t h e s i z e of t h e k r i g i n g matrix, b u t obviously a

thorough understanding of g e o s t a t i s t i c s i s r e q u i r e d t o s e l e c t t h e

g r o u p i n g s and c a l c u l a t e t h e c o v a r i a n c e s i n v o l v e d . Random k r i g i n g

i s d i s c u s s e d by David ( 1 9 7 5 ) , H u i j b r e g t s (1975) and H u i j b r e g t s and

Segovia (1973).
 18
C a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e block v a r i a n c e and t h e c o v a r i a n c e between t h e
I
b l o c k and a s a m p l e a r e v e r y s i m i l a r p r o b l e m i n numerical quadrature. I

A s David (1976) p o i n t s o u t , one problem i n block c o v a r i a n c e c a l c u -

l a t i o n is determining i f a p o i n t i s i n t e r i o r o r e x t e r i o r t o t h e block,

f o r i r r e g u l a r block shapes. I f t h e b l o c k i s convex, a r a p i d t e s t

b a s e d on t h e f e a s i b l e r e g i o n o f a l i n e a r p r o g r a m i s a v a i l a b l e . For

a two d i m e n s i o n a l b l o c k a r a p i d i n t e r i o r - e x t e r i o r d e t e r m i n a t i o n

r o u t i n e i s g i v e n by M a l l ( 1 9 7 5 ) . T h i s r o u t i n e p r o v i d e s s e v e r a l more

i t e m s of information than j u s t t h e simple i n t e r i o r - e x t e r i o r d e c i s i o n

a n d s o c a n b e m o d i f i e d t o r u n somewhat f a s t e r .

I t i s a l s o p o s s i b l e t o c a l c u l a t e t h e c o v a r i a n c e s o f t h e samples and

t h e b l o c k b e f o r e i n v e r t i n g t h e k r i g i n g m a t r i x and o b t a i n t h e k r i g i n g

w e i g h t s by s o l v i n g d i r e c t l y a s y s t e m o f l i n e a r e q u a t i o n s . I f only

o n e b l o c k i s e s t i m a t e d p e r k r i g i n g m a t r i x , t h i s method i s p e r f e r a b l e .

However, f o r o t h e r c a s e s w h e r e many s m a l l b l o c k s a r e e s t i m a t e d u s i n g

t h e same s e t o f s a m p l e s , t h e same k r i g i n g m a t r i x i n v e r s e c a n b e

employed.

I n v e r t i n g t h e k r i g i n g m a t r i x i s t h e m o s t t i m e consuming f o r m o s t

g e o s t a t i s t i c a l programs. The k r i g i n g m a t r i x c a n b e made s y m e t r i c ,

and t h e c o v a r i a n c e p o r t i o n o f t h e k r i g i n g m a t r i x i s s y m e t r i c p o s i t i v e

definate. David ( 1 9 7 5 ) a l l e g e s t h e r e i s n o a d v a n t a g e t o c a r r y i n g

t h e m a t r i x i n s y m e t r i c form e x c e p t f o r c o r e s a v i n g . Ee s t a t e s t h a t

s i g n i f i c a n t e x e c u t i o n t i m e s a v i n g s ( 3 0 % ) a r e p o s s i b l e by r e c o g n i z i n g

t h e d i a g o n a l t e r m o f t h e c o v a r i a n c e m a t r i x i s n o Less t h a n a n y o t h e r

t e r m , when p e r f o r m i n g a n i n v e r s i o n w h i c h r e q u i r e s a p i v o t s e a r c h .
 19
As a t e s t we t o o k k r i g i n g matrices o f v a r i o u s s i z e s a n d i n v e r t e d

t h e m by f i r s t p a r t i t i o n i n g t h e s y m e t r i c p o s i t i v e d e f i n a t e p o r t i o n

a n d p e r f o r m i n g a p i e c e w i s e i n v e r s i o n u s i n g a m e t h o d o u t l i n e d by

H a d l e y ( 1 9 7 1 ) a n d SINV f r o m t h e I .B.PI. S c i e n t i f i c Subroutine

Package. F o r comparison t h e s i m p l e i n v e r s e w a s computed u s i n g biINV

f r o m t h e same s o u r c e . Below a r e l i s c e d t h e CPU t i m e s f o r s e v e r a l

c a s e s u s i n g a n I.B.M. 370/145 c o m p u t e r :

Inversion Procedure f i l a t r i x Size

Simple Inverse 16 123 895

I t i s a p p a r e n t t h a t as t h e m a t r i x s i z e i n c r e a s e s t h e p a r t i t i o n i n g

method w i l l b e b e t t e r . With t h e e x c e p t i o n o f d e n s e l y d r i l l e d uranium

d e p o s i t s , m a t r i c e s o f s u c h a l a r g e s i z e a s t o s u g g e s t e m p l o y i n g thc

p a r t i t i o n i n g procedure a r e n o t o f t e n used.

I3urirsg t h c p a s t ~ ( J Od e c c l d b ~ , t h e A m e r i c a n rniniilcj i n d u s t r ) . h a s laokcci

upon g c o s t a t i s t i c s w i t 1 1 a j a u n d i c e d s y c . biany have c r i t i c i i:cd b f

b e c a u s c of thrz i . n n p ~ a l F c a l . r i l i t r ) .of t h e m a t h e m a t i c a l . modcls to c.Stiri-.r

trhc g c a l s g y or thc m i n i n g m ~ t l ~ o c lcmploycd

s at tlrc ore t l c p o s i t s l
Qtlscrs have 012 jccted ta t h c milthods blacause of k h e j r ma tl>cmc3t:i c ; 3~

ciilc% ctanput::~t;i.cs;~aI coii~plc x i t y . bl'c bc l i c v c tila t ' i h ~~ ' C G fiC ~~ . ? ; J I ~ I ' . " :
 20

computer cost through simplified algorithms have been found for many
of the geostatistical methods. The mathematical complexity has un-
fortunately increased. We note, with hope, that several books for
the layman are now in press, and that geostatistics is beginning to
be taught in American mining curricula, though still with a' strong
French accent.

In summary, it is our view that geostatistics has developed to the

point at which it is not only a credible, respectable way to evaluate
ore deposits, but also sufficiently better than conventional methods
to warrant the higher level of mathematical training required.for
its implementation.
 21
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David, M . , "Grade-Tonnage Curve: Use and Misuse i n Ore-Reserve

E s t i m a t i o n , " T r a n s a c t i o n s of t h e I n s t i t u t i o n o f Mining and M e t a l l u r g y ,
Vol. 8 1 , J u l y 1 9 7 2 , pp. A129-132.

David, M . , G e o s t a t i s t i c a l O r e R e s e r v e E s t i m a t i o n , C o n c e p t u a l Back-
-groundand Computing Method, -
Mackay S c h o o l o f Mines, 1974, 303 pp.

David, M . , "The P r a c t i c e o f K r i g i n g , " P r o c e e d i n g s NATO A.S.I. "Geostat

7 5 , " D. R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Co., D o r d r e c h t , N e t h e r l a n d s , 1976.
w

D e l f i n e r , P . , " L i n e a r E s t i m a t i o n of Non S t a t i o n a r y S p a t i a l Phenomena,"

P r o c e e d i n g s , NATO A.S . I . " G e o s t a t 7 5 , " D. R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Co.,
D o r d r e c h t , N e t h e r l a n d s , 1976.

G u a r a c c i o , M . , " I m p r o v i n g t h e Uranium D e-p o s i t s E s t i m a t i o n s (The

Novazza C a s e ) ,'I P r o c e e d i n g s , NATO A.S. I . , " G e o s t a t 75, I' D. R e i d e l
P u b l i s h i n g Co., D o r d r e c h t , N e t h e r l a n d s , 1976.

Hadley, G . , L i n e a r A l g e b r a , Addison Wesley, P a l o A l t o , 1971, 290 pp.

H a l l , J . , "PTLOC - A FORTRAN S u b r o u t i n e f o r D e t e r m i n i n g t h e P o s i t i o n
o f a P o i n t R e l a t i v e t o a C l o s e d Boundary," J o u r n a l o f t h e I n t e r n a -
t i o n a l A s s o c i a t i o n f o r M a t h e m a t i c a l Geology, Vol. 7 , F e b r u a r y l ,
1975, pp. 75-79.

H u i j b r e g t s , C . J . , " E s t i m a t i o n o f a Mass Proved by Random Diamond

D r i l l H o l e s , " P r o c e e d i n q s , 1 3 t h APCOM Symposium, T e c h n i c a l U n i v e r s i t y
o f C l a u s t h a l , C l a u s t h a l , Germany, 1975, pp. A 1 1 - 117.

H u i j b r e g t s , C . J . , " S e l e c t i o n and Grade-Tonnage R e l a t i o n s h i p s , " -

Pro-
c e e d i n g s , NATO A.S.I. " G e o s t a t 7 5 , " D . R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Co,,
D o r d r e c h t , N e t h e r l a n d s , 1976.

H u i j b r e g t s , C . J . and Matheron, G . , " U n i v e r s a l K r i g i n g (An Optimal

Method f o r E s t i m a t i n g and C o n t o u r i n g i n Trend S u r f a c e A n a l y s i s ) , "
D e c i s i o n Making i n t h e M i n e r a l I n d u s t r y , Can. I n s t . of Min. Met.
Sp. Vol. 1 2 , pp. 159-196.

H u i j b r e g t s , C . J . , and S e g o v i a , R . , " G e o s t a t i s t i c s f o r t h e V a l u a t i o n
o f a Copper D e s p o s i t , " P r o c e e d i n g s , 1 1 t h APCOM Symposium, U n i v e r s i t y
of A r i z o n a , Tucson, 1973, pp. D24-D43.

Matheron, G . , The Theory o f R e g i o n a l i z e d V a r i a b l e s and I t s A p p l i c a t i o n s ,

E c o l e N a t i o n a l e S u p e r i e u r e d e s Mines d e P a r i s , P a r i s , 2 1 1 pp.

Matheron, G. "The I n t r i n s i c Random F u n c t i o n s and T h e i r A p p l i c a t i o n s , "

Advances i n A p p l i e d P r o b a b i l i t y , Vol. 5 , 1973, pp. 439-468.
M a t h e r o n , G . , "A S i m-p l e S u b s t i t u t e F o r C o n d i t i o n a l E x p e c t a t i o n : The
D i s j u n c t i v e K r i g i n g , " P r o c e e d i n g s , NATO A . S . I . " G-----
e o s t a t 7 5 , " D. R e i d e l
P u b l i s h i n g Co., D o r d r e c h t , N e t h e r l a n d s , 1 9 7 6 a .

M a t h e r o n G . , "The T r a n s f e r F u n c t i o n s a n d T h e i r E s t i m a t i o n s , "
P r o c e e d i n g s , NATO A . S . I . " G e o s t a t 7 5 , " D . R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g C o . ,
D o r d r e c h t , N e t h e r l a n d s , 19?6b.

M a r e c h a l , A . , " F o r e c a s t i n q- a G r a d e - T o n n a g-e D i s t r i b u t i o n F o r V a r i o u s
P a n e l S i z e s , " P r o c e e d i n g s 1 3 t h APCOM Symposium, T e c h n i c a l U n i v e r s i t y
o f C l a u s t h a l , C l d u s t i l a l , Germany, 1 9 7 5 , p p . E 1 1 - 1 1 8 .

M a r e c h a l , A . , "The P r a c t i c e o f T r a n s f e r F u n c t i o n s : N u m e r i c a l M e t h o d s
a n d T h e i r A p p l i c a t i o n , " P r o c e e d i n g s , NATO A.S.I. " G e o s t a --
t 7 5 , " D. R e i d e l
P u b l i s h i n g Co., D o r d r e c h t , N e t h e r l a n d s , 1976.

P a r k e r , H . M . , The G e o s t a t i s t i c a l E v a l u a t i o n o f O r e R e s e r v e s U s i n g
Conditional Probability D i s t r i b u t i o n s - A C a s e Study f o r t h e A r e a 5
P r o s p e c t , Warren, Maine,

P a r k e r , H . M. a n d S w i t z e r , P . , " T h e U s e o f C o n d i t i o n a l P r o b a b i l i t y
D i s t r i b u t i o n s i n O r e Reserve E s t i m a t i o n - A Case Study," Proceedings,
1 3 t h APCOM S v m ~ o s i u m , T e c h n i c a l U n i v e r s i t y o f C l a u s t h a l , C l a u s t h a l ,
Germany,1975, pp. M 111-1116.

Rao, C . R. , L i n e a r S t a t i s t i c a l I n f e r e n c e a n d I t s A p p l i c a t i o n s , J o h n
Wiley and Sons, New York, 522 pp.

S a b o u r i n , R . , " A p p l i c a t i o n o f Two M e t h o d s F o r The I n t e r p r a c t a t i o n

o f The U n d e r l y i n g V a r i o g r a m , " P r o c e e d i n g s , NATO A . S . I . " G e o s t a t 75,"
D . R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g Co., D o r d r e c h t , N e t h e r l a n d s , 1 9 7 6 .

S w i t z e r , P . , a n d P a r k e r , H . M . , "The S t a t i s t i c s o f S e l e c t i v e M i n i n g s , "
P r o c e e d i n g s , NATO A . S . I . " G e o s t a t 7 5 , " D . R e i d e l P u b l i s h i n g C o . ,
Dordrecht, N e t h e r l a n d s , 1976.
 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 I00 %

GRADE

FIGURE 1 . HYPOTHETICAL GRADE D I STR I BUTIONS. EST I MATED

P R O P O R T I O N OF ORE B L O C K S 0.84. ACTUAL PROPORTION 0.75.
E S T I M A T E D O R E G R A D E 4 2 . 9 %, A C T U A L O R E GRADE 4 6 . 4 O/o
 1- -

Overburden

0.00

.7310.9211.0211.05 1.0511.1311.12~

.57i0.651068 0.73j0.~~0.79I 0.2210.15(0.l 1 0.07i0.04:0.03 0.0110.03 0.03

-
- 5 0 feet
16 m e t e r s

F I G U R E 2. G e o s t a t i s t i c a l E s t i m a t e s f o r a P o r t i o n o f t : l e A r e a 5 Deposit, 1
W a r r e n , M a i ne. Values p l o t t e d w i t h i n the holes are a c t u a l
w t . % n i c k e l a s s a y s n o r m a l i z e d t o 10 f o o t i n t e r v a l s . V a l u e s p l o t t e d b e t w e e n ]
the holes a r e K r i g e d e s t i m a t e s f o r a h y p o t h e t i c a l v e r t i c a l c o r e
l o c a t e d a t t h e c e n t e r o f e a c h b o x . ( It c a n b e s h o w n t h a t s u c h a n
e s t i m a t e i s e x t r e m e l y close t o the m i n i m u m e r r o r e s t i m a t e f o r t h e box
itself. 1 T h e h e a v y l i n e o u t l i n e s c e l l s e s t i m a t e d t o be a b o v e t h e c u t o f f
'
g r a d e (0.3OI' n i c k e l ) . N o t e t h a t t h e v o l u m e o f o r e i n d i c a t e d i s c o n s i d e r -
ably g r e a t e r t h a n w h a t w o u l d b e p r e d i c t e d f r o m t h e p r o p o r t i o n of o r e
grade intervals i n the d r i l l holes . Also note the e s t i m a t e d grades with-
i n t h e a r e a o u t l i n e d a s ore a r e l e s s t h a n t h o s e o f t h e o r e s a m p l e s in the
holes. Conversely note t h e e s t i m a t e d g r a d e s i n the w a s t e a r e a a r e
higher than waste samples .
 Log Normal
Conditional
Probability
Distributions
(Standard Deviation = 0.16 )

1:0 20
O/o COPPER
$ lo

$ 3

$ 6

Z
0
I-
\

3 $ 4
-1
u
> Expected Value/ T o n
Value/Ton as a Function of Grade

Conditional
$
Distributions

-$ 1 .o 2.0
O/o COPPER
FIGURE 3. VALUE AND E X P E C T E D VALUE PER TON AS A FUNCTION OF GRADE
FOR A H Y P O T H E T I C A L COPPER M I N E
 I
1
1.0 - I
Z I
g Z
Mean 6.049
?t S t a n d a r d Deviation 1.466
t
t- Meon M o s s i v e 6.405
V)
5 0 . 5 .- Vorionce M a s s i v e 0.352 BLOCK "A"
0
M e a n Disseminoted 1.308
*
'I Voriance Disseminoted 1.886
r'
m
a mossive 0.930
m
0
a
n
0
-
0 2 4 6 8
LBS./ CU. F T . NICKEL

0
C
U
z Mean 3.002
3
LL S t o n d o r d D e v i a t i o n 2.606

A
t
'I Mean Mossive 5.991
V)
Z Vorionce Massive 0.399
u 0.5 - BLOCK "B"
n
t M e a n D i s s e m i n o t e d 0.8927
f-
m
II \ Vorionce Disseminoted 0.516
=x
m rnossive 0.413
0
a
a
0
0 2 4 6 8
LBS./CU. FT. NICKEL
r

2.0 -

1.5 ..

z
0
I-
0
z
1.0 ..

>
t-
- Meon 0.697
V)
z Stondord Deviation 1.23611
W
o M e a n Mossive 5.505
0.5 .. Vorionce M a s s i v e 0.329 BLOCK "c"
-
t M e a n D i s s e r n i n o t e d 0.432
-
-I
V a r i o n c e D i s s e m i n o t e d 0.247
m
u 0.052
m
0
a
a
0 0
0 2 4 6 8
L B S . / CU. FT. NICKEL

FIGURE 4 . CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR

SELECTED BLOCKS ALONG A C R O S S SECTION AT THE AREA
5 DEPOSIT, WARREN, MAINE.
 TONNAGE /CUT-OFF GRADE CURVE
I
FOR 2Ox20m BLOCKS IN V

.
.,,,.
Real blocks grade

Disjunctive k r i g i n g
I
- Kriaed arade I

I
7

cut-off grade in %Cu

FIGURE 6. GRADE-TONNAGE CURVES FOR A PORTION OF THE CHUQUICAMATA

COPPER DEPOSIT. FOR A CUTOFF GRADE OF 1.5%, KRlGlNG PREDICTS
95% OF THE BLOCKS WILL BE ORE. DISJUNCTIVE KRlGlNG PREDICTS
81 Oo/ WHILE THE ACTUAL GRADES GIVE 83'10.
 FIGURE 7
SECTION THROUGH PLANAR STRUCTURE

TOP OF FORMATION ELEVATION AND FIRST FINITE DIFFERENCE

HOLE TOP OF FIRST
FORMATION Dl FFERENCE
ELEVATION

FIGURE 8
SECTION THROUGH PARABOLA STRUCTURE

TOP OF FORMATION ELEVATION AND FINITE DIFFERENCES

HOLE TOP OF FIRST SECOND
FORMATION DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE
ELEVATION

A 6500 -100 5Q
B 6400 - 50 50
 DENSELY
00000
DRILLED 0
00000 AREA

FIGURE 9
HYPOTHETICAL DRILLING PATTERN
PLAN VIEW

Block to b e estimated

First Grouping

Second Grouping

FIGURE 10
RANDOM KRlGlNG