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Critical antecedent rainfall conditions for

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Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106
DOI 10.1007/s12665-011-1483-0
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Critical antecedent rainfall conditions for shallow landslides
in Chittagong City of Bangladesh
Younus Ahmed Khan Habibah Lateh
M. Azizul Baten Anton Abdulbasah Kamil
Received: 10 March 2011 / Accepted: 2 December 2011 / Published online: 15 December 2011
Springer-Verlag 2011
Abstract The major landslide events that occurred in
Chittagong City in 2007 and 2008 have caused the death of
about 140 people and incurred a considerable amount of
property loss. At least ten landslide events occurred during
the period of 20002009, with mainly rainfall as the trig-
gering factor. The critical rainfall condition of the landslide
events was analyzed with Gumbels extreme value distri-
bution using the historical rainfalllandslide data. The
antecedent rainfalls were used for Gumbels distribution for
the critical rainfall intensitydurations of each historical
landslide event. Landslides were correlated with the monthly
average as well as the percentile rank of monthly median
rainfall. The regression relationship between 30 days of
absolute antecedent rainfall intensity (I) and corresponding
duration (D) of rainfall responsible for the landslides in the
study area was found as I = -15.8ln(D) ? 60.49. The cal-
ibrated antecedent rainfall analysis showed a relation
between I and D as I = -40.5ln(D) ? 162.5. The major
recent landslide events were related to the extreme rainfall
intensities ([40 mm/day) having short period of time
(27 days). All the major landslide events occurred at much
higher rainfall amount compared to the monthly average.
However, these rainfall thresholds were statistically based
Y. A. Khan (&)
Department of Geology and Mining, University of Rajshahi,
Rajshahi 6205, Bangladesh
e-mail: younus@ru.ac.bd
H. Lateh  A. A. Kamil
School of Distance Education, Universiti Sains Malaysia,
11800 USM, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia
M. A. Baten
Department of Statistics, Shah Jalal University of Science
and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh
and were not defined hydrological response of rainfall to the
soil, as well as other geological conditions associated with
slopes.
Keywords Landslide  Gumbels distribution 
Rainfall intensityduration  Antecedent  Bangladesh
Introduction
A landslide can be defined as the movement of a mass of
rock, earth or debris down a slope (Cruden 1991). Land-
slides are a common geological phenomenon in many
countries and refer to a number of processes that result in
the noticeable downward and outward movement of rock,
earth and debris under gravitational influences (Cruden
1991). In shallow landslide, the sliding surface is located
within the soil mantle or weathered bedrock, typically to a
depth up to a few meters. It usually includes debris slides,
debris flow and failures of road cut-slopes. It is well known
that the rainfall has intense effects in producing landslides
in the mountainous areas of different countries. The rain-
fall-induced shallow landslides, also called soil slips, are
becoming common all over the world. Several studies (e.g.,
Pradhan and Lee 2010; Chang et al. 2008; Xie et al. 2004)
suggest that precipitation is one of the important triggering
factors that causes landslides. Generally, the main causes
of this phenomenon seem to be prolonged rainfalls of
medium intensity or extreme intense rainfall events. The
intensities and durations of such rainfalls have to be
addressed for the proper understanding of landsliderain-
fall relationship. Caine (1980) first suggested a limiting
threshold of rainfall intensity and duration for shallow
landsliding and debris flow activity. Many researchers
(e.g., Cannon et al. 2008; Floris and Bozzano 2008; Chen
123
98
et al. 2007, 2005; Guzzetti et al. 2007; Baum et al. 2005;
Wieczorek and Glade 2005; Lan et al. 2005; Guzzetti et al.
2004; Ngecu and Mathu 1999; Crosta 1998; Finlay et al.
1997; Au 1993; Larsen and Simon 1993) have investigated
qualitative as well as quantitative effects of rainfall on
landslide occurrence. We would like to review some
research articles relating rainfalls to landslide occurrences
in different parts of the world. An evaluation of shallow
landslides induced by a particular rainfall event was done
with a timespace based approach and GIS (Xie et al.
2004). Chang et al. (2008) proposed a landslide model
using a quantitative precipitation during typhoon that
could be used to compute probabilistic landslide occur-
rence for a real-time monitoring system. Guzzetti et al.
(2008) investigated the rainfall intensityduration (ID) for
initiation of shallow landslide and proposed a global ID
for shallow landslide occurrences. Studies of landslides
relating to rainfalls Onodera et al. (1974) for example,
found that the slope failures increased abruptly after
rainfall exceeded 150200 mm with the rainfall intensity
more than 2030 mm per hour in Japan. An approximate
rainfall value of 250 mm is a likely threshold for the
occurrences of landslides in San Benito County, Califor-
nia (Oberste-lehn 1976) and in Alameda County, Cali-
fornia (Nilsen et al. 1976). According to Guidicini and
Iwasa (1977), landslides can occur in southeast Brazil
when precipitations exceed 817% of the mean annual
precipitation and the catastrophic event may occur with
rainfall of more than 20% of the annual mean. Ng and Shi
(1998) suggest that short-duration rainfalls with high
intensity can trigger landslides in Hong Kong. Recently,
Marques et al. (2008) studied the role of rainfall in
landslides on the regional scale for Portugal and found
that the landslides were related both to short-duration
precipitation events (13 days) with high average inten-
sity (between 78 and 144 mm/day) and long-lasting
rainfall episodes (15 months) with a lower intensity
(between 9 and 22 mm/day). Guzzetti et al. (2004)
described that the rainfall triggered landslides with
cumulative and continuous rainfall data combined with
other information collected from the landslide occur-
rences. Ayalew (1999) used the cumulative precipitation
and the mean annual rainfall to describe the rainfall effect
on landslides by means of likelihood of occurrence. The
importance of antecedent rainfall in landslide initiation
has been recognized. Several studies (Marques et al. 2008;
Crozier 1986) have illustrated the calibrated antecedent
rainfall effects on shallow landslides, since the absolute
rainfall for longer periods may not have complete influ-
ences due to evaporation and other similar losses of
rainwater. Extreme rainfalls events that produced major
landslides in Portugal have been analyzed using a prob-
abilistic functional form of Gumbels extreme value
123
Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106
distribution (Marques et al. 2008). Glade et al. (2000)
used an empirical antecedent daily rainfall model for
probabilistic landslide analysis. A number of different
approaches were also devised to incorporate the rain
infiltration in terms of pore water pressure distribution
inside the slope for shallow landslide (Iverson 2000;
Haneberg 1991). Generally, these approaches use models
of infinite slope stability analysis to find the critical pore
pressure distribution at failure. Gabet et al. (2004)
developed a slope stability model where they used 3 years
of daily rainfall and sediment transport data to define the
relation between monsoonal rainfall and landslides in the
Annapurna region of Nepal and suggested that the two
distinct threshold values, seasonal accumulation and daily
amount, were critical for landslide to occur.
Landslide is an inevitable problem for the southeastern
part of Bangladesh; particularly, Chittagong City is
highly vulnerable to landslide hazard, with an increasing
trend of frequency and damage. The landslides in the
study area are classified as earth slides since they
consist more than 80% sand and finer particles, based on
classification suggested by Cruden and Varnes (1996).
The Chittagong City (Fig. 1) of Bangladesh lies between
21 540 N to 22 590 N latitude and 91 170 E to 92 140 E
longitude. At least ten landslide events have occurred
during the period of 20002009, where several events
were directly related to the extreme monsoonal rainfall
ranging from 125 to 425 mm. The landslides were shal-
low in nature and occurred generally during and/or after
heavy rainfall. Such type of extreme events can be ana-
lyzed using the functional form of extreme value distri-
bution (e.g., Gumbels distribution). Marques et al.
(2008) used Gumbels distribution to find the return
period of rainfall amountduration that produced major
landslide events in Portugal. The rainfall intensity and
duration play very important role in producing shallow
landslides in the present study area. Investigation about
the role of rainfall intensity and duration as well as the
effects of antecedent rainfall should be addressed in the
Chittagong City area. Very few studies (i.e., Khan and
Chang 2006, 2008) related to the landslide problems of
this area have been undertaken, but those studies did not
consider the effects of rainfall intensity and duration. No
relationship between rainfall and landslide for this area
has so far been investigated. The relationship between
landslide occurrences and rainfall events in the Chitta-
gong City needs proper scientific study to assess future
failure events.
Therefore, the present paper represents the statistical
analyses of extreme value distribution of antecedent rain-
fall using daily rainfall data of the period 20002009 and
its impacts on major landslides that occurred in 2007 and
2008. The study finally characterizes the relationship
Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106
Fig. 1 Map of the Chittagong
City area (modified after Khan
and Chang 2008)
between the major landslide events and the critical rainfall
intensityduration from the antecedent rainfall analysis.
Geomorphology and lithology of the study area
Geomorphology
Physiographically, the Chittagong City is situated in the
folded belt of Bengal Foredeep. A northsouth Tertiary hill
range extends into the Chittagong City area from the north
and the height of the hills gradually decreases in the east
and southeast to the Karnaphuli River. The city comprises
the area of small hills and narrow valleys, bounded by the
Karnaphuli River to the south, the coastal plain and the Bay
of Bengal to the west and the floodplain of the Halda River
to the east. The highest level of the hills within the city area
is about 60 m above mean sea level. The hills of the study
area were cut with slopes of 7080 despite the potential
threat of landslides because of newer settlements of slums
for the homeless people. Generally, the hilly areas of
99
Devpahar, Motijhorna, Khulshi, Baizid Bostami, Foys
Lake, Batali Hill, Nasirabad and Kusumbagh are the most
affected areas by landslides.
Lithology
Chittagong Hill was formed during the Tertiary period of
the geological scale. The folded part of the Chittagong City
area comprises Tipam Sandstone formation and Girujan
clay formation of the Pliocene age at bottom and the Dupi
Tila formation of the Pleistocene age at the top (Reimann
1993). The plain land of the city area consists of stream,
deltaic and flood plain deposits of the Recent age. The hills
are mainly composed of unconsolidated or semi-consoli-
dated beds of sandstones, siltstones and shales, together
with minor beds of conglomerates with local unconformi-
ties. Shale results in heavy silt loam or silty clay loam
subsoil in the area.
The geological structures and soils are weak and also
have steep slopes which increase the risk of vulnerability to
landslide.
123
100
Major landslides events
A series of landslides (Fig. 2) due to torrential rains
occurred in 18 August 2008 and 11 June 2007 and left as
many as 140 people dead and many injured. These two
events that produced a considerable number of landslides
in the area were related to the extreme nature of rainfall
events.
11 June 2007 event of landslides
A number of landslides occurred on 11 June 2007 in dif-
ferent parts of the city with huge number of casualties. The
most affected areas were Matijharna of Lalkhan Bazaar,
Power Colony, Kushum Bagh (Fig. 2a), Devpahar and
Shaheed Minar area of Chittagong City. The amount of
precipitation was 425 mm during 24 h on the day of
landslide. All the landslides were shallow in nature and
occurred in loose sandstone with inter-bedded shale. These
sandstones comprised mostly medium to fine sand with
\5% silt and clay. Due to the inundation of part of hill-
slopes, the sands at the toes of the slopes were completely
saturated. Subsequent dissolution of fines from the sands
caused sudden reduction of shearing strength of the slope
material and induced failure. Shallow retrogressive failures
were also found in some cases after water drained out from
the slope toes.
Fig. 2 Landslide events in
Chittagong City (from 2000 to
2009). a Landslide in Kushum
Bagh area in 2007. b Landslide
in Motijhorna area in 2008.
c, d Landslide events in 2009 in
less populated areas. e, f Old
landslide (in 2000) signatures in
Gol Pahar area of the city
123
Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106
18 August 2008 event
The landslide of 18 August 2008 took place in the Mati-
jharna area (Fig. 2b) of Lalkhan Bazaar, Bakulia, Lebub-
agan and Batali Hill areas. The major event completely
bulldozed 13 small houses in those areas. The amount of
rainfall was 125 mm in 24 h till 12:00 noon of 18 August
2008 (Hayat 2008). The landslides in the 2008 event were
also found to be shallow in nature. The depths to the main
scarps of these landslides were not more than 2 m. The
depth of the main scarp of failure was about 10 m in
Lebubagan. Several landslide locations (Fig. 2cf) were
investigated after the 18 August 2008 landslide event.
Rainfall analysis and landslide
In the present analysis, it was assumed that the rainfall
acted as a triggering factor for a landslide, while the other
factors like soil properties, slope geometries and other
geological features like fault, lineaments, earthquakes, etc.,
were kept constant. The rainfall analysis was carried out
using the daily rainfall data covering the period of
20002009. The analysis was statistically based and was
not defined as hydrological impact of rainfall into the soil,
as well as other geological conditions associated with
slopes. The rainfall data were collected at the Chittagong
Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106
weather station of Bangladesh meteorological department
and it was also assumed that these rainfall data were rep-
resentative of the study area. The mean annual rainfall for
this duration at Chittagong was about 246 mm. The
monthly rainfall distribution showed a significant differ-
ence between the wet (AprilSeptember) and the dry
(OctoberMarch) seasons (Fig. 3). Most (about 80% of
total landslide) of the landslides events in the area occurred
between May and September during the peak rainfall
([200 mm) months in the wet period of the year. About
30% of the total landslides occurred in the month of June
(with average monthly rainfall [600 mm) during the per-
iod of 20002009. One of the two major landslides events
also occurred in June (11 June 2007). All the historical
landslide events were marked as ID1, ID2 and so on in the
analysis.
Reconstruction of antecedent rainfall
Antecedent precipitation can be used to determine when
landslides are likely to occur since it influences ground-
water condition and soil moisture. A key difficulty is to
consider the period for accumulation of the precipitation in
order to use the antecedent rainfall measurements to predict
landslide occurrence. The literature reviews show varied
accumulation periods that trigger landslides around the
globe. Chleborad (2003) considered 18 days (3-day land-
slide-event rainfall and 15 days of antecedent rainfall).
Several other studies considered 3 days (Kim et al. 1991),
4 days (Heyerdahl et al. 2003) and 7, 10 and 15 days
(Aleotti 2004). Pasuto and Silvano (1998) found best cor-
relation with landslide occurrence for the 15-day anteced-
ent rainfall and Cardinali et al. (2006) found a relation
between landslide occurrences and the 34 months ante-
cedent rainfalls.
However, a few authors (e.g., Aleotti 2004; Corominas
2000; Corominas and Moya 1996; Brand et al. 1984) did
Fig. 3 Monthly average rainfall during the period of 20002009.
Solid circles represent the monthly average rainfall for landslides
101
not find any importance of the antecedent rainfall for the
initiation of landslides.
The present paper tried to find any relationship between
landslide and the antecedent rainfall in the study area.
Analyses for absolute antecedent as well as calibrated
antecedent rainfall situations are considered in the fol-
lowing sections.
Absolute antecedent rainfall
To investigate the effects of preceding rainfalls on land-
slides, Eq. 1 has been used:
AARx R1 R2    Rn 1
where AARx is the cumulative absolute antecedent rainfall
for day x; R1 is the daily rainfall amount for the day before
x; Rn is the daily rainfall amount for the n-th day before day
x. The computation of cumulative absolute antecedent
rainfall for 3, 10 and 30 consecutive days before landslide
event was done.
Calibrated antecedent rainfall
The absolute antecedent rainfall during longer periods may
not have a complete effect on landslide. The drainage and
other processes decrease the effects of rainfall over time
(Crozier 1986). In order to consider this decrease in rainfall
effect on landslides, Crozier (1986) proposed the following
equation for calibrated antecedent rainfall:
CARx KR1 K 2 R2    K n Rn 2
where CARx is calibrated antecedent rainfall for day x; K is
an empirical (constant) parameter that depends on the
draining capacity and hydrological properties of the study
area (Capecchi and Focardi 1988). Generally, K ranges
from a value between 0.8 and 0.9. A good assumption of
this K value can be 0.9 (Marques et al. 2008) for a maxi-
mum of 30 antecedent days.
Marques et al. (2008) successfully used calibrated
antecedent rainfall in evaluating the triggering rainfall
conditions. They considered calibrated antecedent rainfall
for 5, 15 and 30 days and combined with corresponding
daily rainfall to assess the triggering threshold for studied
landslides in Portugal.
The rainfall threshold
The rainfall amount and the corresponding duration are
very important in relating the landslide event with rainfall.
There must be a single combination of rainfall intensity
duration that is more likely responsible for the landslide
event. Gumbels probability distribution underestimates the
maximum values of rainfall for long return periods (Keim
123
102
and Faiers 2000). Gumbels (1958) probability distribution
is the most commonly used analytical method for the sta-
tistical analysis of intense rainfall (Hershfield 1961; Gajic
1991; Fairs et al. 1994) and has previously been used to
estimate the intense rainfall return period in landslide
hazard analysis (Fiorillo and Wilson 2004). Gumbels
extreme value distribution has been used to compute the
rainfall intensityduration for each landslide. The distri-
bution of the largest value (i.e., largest rainfall) in Gum-
bels approach conforms asymptotically to the double
exponential form. The Gumbels equation for extreme
value distribution of rainfall (x) of N sample size is
FxN \xr expf expax  ug 3
where xN is the maximum x (rainfall) from a sample of N, xr is
any reference value of xN; u is the mode of extreme value
distribution and a is a measure of dispersion. The two
parameters, u and a, can be estimated by various methods
such as moments, Chow, least squares, maximum likelihood
and Kimball (Chow et al. 1998). If x mean of N sample
size, s = standard deviation, c = Eulers constant (0.5772)
and p = 3.142, the parameters u and a can be determined
from the method of moments as u x  ac ; a spp 6.
The return period defines the mean interval, in years, in
which the extreme value reaches or exceeds the limit on a
single incident The return period T(x) for a given limit
x (=xN) of rainfall can be expressed as its probability as in
the following equation.,
Tx 1=1  Fx 4
Several studies (e.g., Marques et al. 2008; Marques
2004; Trigo et al. 2005; Zezere et al. 2005) have
successfully implemented Gumbel equation (Eq. 3) for
distribution of extreme landslide events at different study
areas. The critical intensity and duration of rainfall were
judged based on the higher return period for each landslide
event. This provides a marked difference between the
periods of landslide events and non-landslide events. The
rainfall intensity was determined using the corresponding
critical intensity and duration of rainfall for a landslide
event.
Results and discussion
All the landslides occurred at least at or above the average
monthly rainfall (Fig. 3) during the study period
(20002009). Figure 3 also shows that several landslides
like ID10, ID9 and ID4 occurred at much higher rainfall
than the monthly average rainfall. Again in Fig. 4, land-
slides ID10, ID9 and ID4 are positioned above the 90
percentile of monthly rainfall, while the other minor
landslides occurred at or below the 70 percentile.
123
Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106
Fig. 4 Percentile of monthly precipitation (20002009) at Chitta-
gong City and occurrences of landslides. Circles represent landslide
events
The detailed results from the analyses are given in
Tables 1, 2 and 3. The simple cumulative antecedent
rainfall for 3, 10 and 30 days from each landslide date with
number of landslides are shown in Table 1. The major
landslides (e.g., ID9 and ID10) had a close relation with a
3 days antecedent rainfall which ranged from 133 to
202 mm. The landslide ID10 had 125-mm rainfall on the
landslide day in addition to 3 days of antecedent rainfall
amounting to 202 mm. Similarly, event ID9 showed
425 mm of rainfall on the day and 133 mm as a 3 days
antecedent amount. This means that the major landslide
events occurred due to the rainfall that precipitated within
the period of 4 days. Landslides ID02 and ID03 might have
some relation with 30 days of antecedent rainfall, since
little or no considerable rainfall occurred within the 3 days
before the landslide days.
Table 2 shows the critical amount and duration of
rainfall and the return periods of landslide events due to
30 days of absolute antecedent rainfall. The major land-
slides, ID10, ID09 and ID04, were associated with the
higher ([40 mm/day) critical rainfall intensity and with
the lower (27 days) critical duration. On the other hand,
the normal or minor landslides such as ID05, ID6 and ID07
were related with much lower (\15 mm/day) critical
amount and higher ([14 days) duration. It is observed that
the major landslide events were closely related to high
rainfall amount with a short period of time (days). Figure 5
shows the curves fitted results of the antecedent rainfall
analysis. The regression relationship between absolute
antecedent (30 days) rainfall intensity (I) and correspond-
ing duration (D) of the landslides in the study area was
found as I 15:8 lnD 60:49 with R2 = 0.51. It is
clear that there are two groups of landslides: one group has
Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106 103

Table 1 Landslide events and

Landslide Number Losses Rainfall on Antecedent rainfall for previous
related rainfall scenario
date (ID) of slides of lives landslide
day (mm) 3 days 10 days 30 days
(mm) (mm) (mm)

20000624 (ID1) 3 11 188.00 23.0 108.0 686.0

20000707 (ID2) 1 2 0.0 2.0 32.0 610.0
20020813 (ID3) 1 3 1.0 12.0 173.0 779.0
20030626 (ID4) 3 1 206.0 54.0 399.0 847.0
20040912 (ID5) 2 5 117.0 154.0 192.0 298.0
20050426 (ID6) 1 1 1.0 14.0 14.0 57.0
20050804 (ID7) 3 3 33.0 37.0 51.0 412.0
20050924 (ID8) 2 4 164.0 16.0 104.0 208.0
20070611 (ID9) 7 213 425.0 133.0 185.0 384.0
20080818 (ID10) 3 11 125.0 202.0 329.0 381.0

Table 2 Thirty days (successive) absolute antecedent rainfall

analysis
Landslide Date of Critical Critical Return Rain on
ID slide days rain period slide day
(mm/day) (years) (mm)

ID1 20000624 12 17.33 4.586 188

ID2 20000707 13 23.31 3.081 0
ID3 20020813 15 19.27 3.71 1
ID4 20030626 5 58.4 4.1 206
ID5 20040912 28 13.39 3.249 117
ID6 20040426 16 3.56 1.518 1
ID7 20050804 15 9.67 4.938 33
ID8 20050924 4 20 4.824 164 Fig. 5 Regression line between critical rainfall intensity (30 days
average) and the corresponding duration of absolute antecedent
ID9 20070611 2 45.5 2.559 425 rainfall. Solid squares represent landslide events
ID10 20080818 7 42.71 0.589 125

Table 3 Thirty days (rainy) calibrated antecedent rainfall analysis

(K = 0.9)
Landslide Date of Critical Critical Return Rain on
ID slide days rain period slide day
(mm/day) (years) (mm)

ID1 20000624 21 60 6.386 188

ID2 20000707 19 44.35 5.965 0
ID3 20020813 25 42.54 11.816 1
ID4 20030626 3 123.75 9.031 206
ID5 20040912 16 37.35 13.13 117
ID6 20040426 28 30.72 9.691 1
Fig. 6 Regression line between critical rainfall intensity and corre-
ID7 20050804 18 34.53 6.607 33 sponding duration of calibrated (K = 0.9) antecedent rainfall. Solid
ID8 20050924 13 38.64 35.846 164 squares represent landslide events
ID9 20070611 7 90.5 1.724 425
ID10 20080818 16 46.41 5.182 125 antecedent rainfall. The major landslides (ID4, ID9 and
ID10) have been clearly related to the higher ([40 mm/
day) rainfall rate and the shorter (\8 days) duration.
a relation with the higher intensity and the lower duration The results of calibrated (with K = 0.9) antecedent
of antecedent rainfall, while the other groups has a relation rainfall analysis are given in Table 3. Table 3 supports the
with the lower intensity and the higher duration of results of absolute antecedent rainfall analysis of Table 2.

123
104
Landslide ID9 and ID4 have higher calibrated rainfall
intensities with lower durations. Only 3 rainy days with a
rainfall rate of 123.7 mm/day were required to produce the
landslide event ID04. Landslide ID10 and others show
lower intensity of calibrated antecedent rainfall with higher
duration. This means that the absolute antecedent rainfall
has more impact on landslide ID10. The regression anal-
ysis (Fig. 6) of the calibrated antecedent rainfall shows
a relation of rainfall intensity (I) with duration (D) as
Fig. 7 Rainfall amount on the landslide day and during the past 30 days before landslides of ID1 (a), ID4 (b), ID7 (c), ID8 (d), ID9 (e) and ID10
(f)
123
Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106
I 40:5 lnD 162:5 with R2 = 0.83. Figure 7 shows
the rainfall amount on the landslide day and during the
corresponding previous 30 days of each landslide events.
The major landslide events (ID04, ID09 and ID10) were
closely related with the rainfalls, which precipitated on the
day of landslides or during the past 24 days (Fig. 7).
Therefore, the major landslides in the study area have a
close relation with rainfall of high intensity and short
duration. The analysis depicted that the last two major
Environ Earth Sci (2012) 67:97106
landslide events in Chittagong City occurred mostly due to
the extreme rainfall intensity ([40 mm/day) during a short
period of time (27 days). It is noted that the studied
relation between the landslides and the rainfall is statisti-
cally derived from the historical rainfalllandslide data,
and no physicomechanical aspects of the slope material are
considered.
Conclusions
Based on the statistical analysis and the discussions, the
following conclusions can be made:
1. Gumbels extreme value distribution approach has
been successfully implemented in analyzing the crit-
ical rainfall intensityduration for landslide events in
Chittagong City of Bangladesh.
2. All the major landslide events occurred at much higher
amount of rainfall compared to the monthly average in
the study area.
3. The critical rainfall intensitydurations for each
historical landslide events were determined from the
antecedent rainfall analysis. The regression relation-
ship between the absolute antecedent (30 days) rainfall
intensity (I) and the corresponding duration (D) of
the landslides in the study area was found as
I 15:8 lnD 60:49 with R2 = 0.51. The relation
between the calibrated antecedent rainfall and the
landslide event was found as I 40:5 lnD 162:5
with R2 = 0.83.
4. The recent major or devastating landslide events have
been related to the extreme rainfall intensity ([40 mm/
day) with a short period of time (27 days).
5. However, these rainfall thresholds are statistically
based. These are not defined with the hydrological
response of rainfall to the soil, as well as other
geological conditions associated with slopes.
Acknowledgments This research work was supported by the Uni-
versity Sains Malaysia (USM), Penang, Malaysia. The first author
duly acknowledges the financial support of USM during his staying in
USM as a visiting scientist.
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