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每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 8 月 19 日
市场技术解读
有望上升至 1,390 点和 1,400 点…
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)在核心蓝筹股获得强劲买盘支撑下持续往上冲高,即使套利压力不断涌现。
♦ 受到隔夜美国股市强力反弹所激励,本地投资者一连第 4 日延伸购兴,并在高昂的士气下一再推高市场走高。
♦ 尽管如此,由于近日领先股如云顶(Genting)(-6 仙)在温和的整盘下回软,加上呆滞的区域股市表现,还有在早盘急挫
的欧洲股市,整体市场开始转为谨慎,鉴于投资者质疑当前涨势的持续能力。
技术解读∶
♦ 在连续获得 4 根阳烛的支撑下,这显示来日将出现一轮持续性的上升趋势。
♦ 否则,套利跌势即将涌现,并将导致上升趋势反转。
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请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露( IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES)
2010 年 8 月 19 日
每日交投策略∶
♦ 技术而言,我们认为,如果它有本事在跟进买盘动力下一举突破这些障碍线,那么下一道上涨目标为 1,450 点。
♦ 反之,若它没法超越这些障碍线,这将会触发卖压动力,并将会导致市场回调。目前,短期动力解读已严重超买,显示当前
买盘局势可能会反转。
♦ 虽然如此,鉴于市场近来表现超强,我们还是看好富时综指的短、中和长期展望。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶主要海外指数及原产品
8月 8月 8月 8月 8月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 12 日 13 日 16 日 17 日 18 日 本地主要指数 (点) (%)
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,385.51 7.04 0.5
298 502 405 391 334
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 9,098.09 35.45 0.4
383 228 320 367 377
平盘 富时大马创业板 3,861.22 -34.57 -0.9
261 269 261 292 312
无交易 各大海外指数
431 374 389 326 353
道琼斯工商指数 10,415.54 9.69 0.1
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,215.70 6.26 0.3
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,094.16 1.62 0.1
(百万股) 798 996 974 1,113 998 伦敦金融时报指数 5,302.87 -47.68 -0.9
总成交值 恒生指数 21,022.73 -114.70 -0.5
(百万令吉) 1,088 1,361 1,363 1,756 1,616 雅加达综合指数 3,072.09 19.49 0.6
东京日经 225 指数 9,240.54 78.86 0.9
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,761.99 6.96 0.4
令吉兑美元 3.1830 3.1660 3.1790 3.1575 3.1540 上海综合指数 2,666.30 -5.59 -0.2
曼谷综合指数 880.02 14.24 1.6
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 新加坡海峡时报指数 2,919.37 -3.99 -0.1
台湾加权指数 7,924.10 -6.99 -0.1
印度 Sensex 指数 18,257.12 208.27 1.2
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 75.42 -0.35 -0.5
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,650.00 -36.00 -1.3
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 8 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
10 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 9 月 21 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
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2010 年 8 月 19 日
图 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(日线图) 图 4∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(单日线图)
技术解读∶
♦ 不过,它却形成了一根“类似上吊线”(hangman-like),显示市场近期可能会回调。同样无补于事的是,随机指标
(stochastic oscillators)也已转入“极度超买区”。这意味着期指可能会陷入短期回调走势内。
♦ 虽然如此,只要期指维持在这些移动平均线以上,那么短期上升趋势将保持稳健。
每日交投策略∶
表 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)收盘
FKLI (月份) 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 8 月 1385.00 1387.00 1377.00 1385.50 1.50 1385.50 6200 16751
10 年 9 月 1385.50 1387.00 1376.50 1385.00 2.00 1385.00 676 1232
10 年 12 月 1381.50 1385.00 1374.50 1385.00 4.00 1383.50 227 318
11 年 3 月 1381.50 1390.50 1376.00 1390.50 8.00 1385.00 86 175
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2010 年 8 月 19 日
图 5∶美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)(日线图) 图 6∶美国纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)(日线图)
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 这也成功扭转了早前的跌势,同时也抵消了能源股因原油价格再度下挫而刮起的抛风。埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)和雪佛
龙(Chevron)分别下挫 1.1% 和 0.9%。
♦ 此外,随着 BHP Billiton 最近建议以 390 亿美元收购 Potash Corp of Saskatchewan 后,交投士气也在市场憧憬将出现
更多并购活动下受到鼓舞。据报道,ArcelorMittal 可能会收购 US Steel,至于 Macquarie 则指出,北美第 2 大化肥生产
商 Mosaic 可能会成为收购目标。
技术解读∶
♦ 一旦它成功破围这些障碍线,短期动力有望推动它达到 2,330 点。
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2010 年 8 月 19 日
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶ 吉隆甲洞( KLK)(日线图) 图 8∶ 吉隆甲洞(单日线图)
17.00 令吉阻力线维持顽强…
技术解读∶
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
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Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
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