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2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

2017 Outlook for Energy:


A View to 2040
The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobils global view of energy demand and supply through 2040.
We use the data and findings in the book to help guide our long-term investments. It also highlights
the dual challenge of ensuring the world has access to affordable and reliable energy supplies while
reducing emissions to address the risk of climate change. We share the Outlook with the public to
help promote a better understanding of the issues shaping the worlds energy needs.

Why is this important? Because energy is fundamental to modern life. It is critical to human
progress and to improving living standards for billions of people across the globe.

2
01 02

Fundamentals Demand
6-10 Global fundamentals 11-13 Demand
14 -18 Transportation
19 - 21 Residential and commercial
22- 25 Industrial
26-29 Electricity and power generation

03 04

Emissions Supply
30-33 Emissions 34-35 Supply
36-38 Liquids
39-42 Natural gas

05 06

Energy matters
43 Energy matters
Data and glossary
44-49 Data
50 Glossary

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Our energy to 2040: Seven things to know
Modern energy is one of mankinds most complex endeavors, and its path is shaped by countless forces.
However, we see seven key themes that will play a major role in defining our global energy landscape through 2040.

Energy underpins Non-OECD The global energy


economic growth countries lead mix is evolving
the way for
energy demand
High levels of growth mean rising Continuing urbanization in China As global economies grow and
living standards. Across the world, and India, with people moving government policies change,
the middle class will more than from rural areas to cities, will the energy mix will continue
double in the next 15 years. help to drive economic growth. to diversify. Nuclear and
As this growth accelerates so China is likely to be the largest renewables will grow strongly
does consumption. Demand for contributor of Gross Domestic with natural gas growing the
energy increases with more people Product (GDP) gains. India is most. The diversification of
expecting access to air conditioned also growing strongly with its energy supplies reflects
homes, cars and appliances like share of global GDP doubling. economics and advanced
refrigerators, dishwashers technologies as well as policies
and smartphones. aimed at reducing emissions.

4
Oil remains the Natural gas leads Cost-effective The potential of
worlds primary growth in energy options to reduce technology
energy source CO2 emissions

Oil will continue to play a Natural gas is the largest growing Delivering on the increased As the pace of technology
leading role in the energy mix fuel source, providing a quarter demand for energy needs to development continues to accelerate,
with demand being driven by of global energy demand go hand in hand with finding new and still uncertain solutions
fuel for transportation and by 2040. The abundance and constructive solutions that are likely to emerge to contribute to
feedstock for the chemicals versatility of natural gas is helping mitigate the risk of climate meeting energy and environmental
goals. Recent advances in technology
industry. These feedstocks help the world shift to less carbon- change. This is supported by are promoting energy efficiency
to make plastics and other intensive energy for electricity the continuing shift to less gains to slow demand growth, and
advanced materials that provide generation while also providing carbon-intensive energy for also opening up new energy supply
advantages to manufacturers an emerging option as a fuel for power generation and increased options including unconventional
and consumers including certain types of transportation. energy efficiency in every sector. oil and natural gas, nuclear
energy efficiency gains. Global energy-related CO2 and renewables.
emissions are likely to peak
during the 2030s, even as
global GDP doubles by 2040.

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01

Fundamentals
What will the worlds energy picture look like in the future?

To find the answer, start by studying the worlds long-term demographic and economic trends.
By 2040, world population is expected to reach 9.1 billion, up from 7.3 billion today.

Over that same period, global GDP will effectively double, with non-member countries of the Organisation of
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) seeing particularly high levels of economic growth. This means
rising living standards in essentially every corner of the world, and billions of people joining the global middle class.

This economic expansion, coupled with growing numbers of people, will help drive up global energy demand
by about 25 percent by the year 2040, similar to adding another North America and Latin America to the worlds
current energy demand.

The world will need to pursue all economic energy sources to keep up with this considerable demand growth.
Oil and natural gas will likely be nearly 60 percent of global supplies in 2040, while nuclear energy and renewables
will grow about 50 percent and be approaching a 25 percent share of the worlds energy mix.

6
Global fundamentals projections

Energy fuels human development World demographics continue to shift


2014 U.N. Human Development Index Billion people
Norway
1.0 United States 2.5

0.8 2.0
China
Bangladesh

0.6 India 1.5

Age 65+
0.4 Yemen Nigeria 1.0

Age 1564
0.2 0.5

Age 014
0 0
10 100 1,000 10,000 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40
2014 energy use per capita OECD China India Other AP Africa Rest
Thousand BTU per person per day Non-OECD of World
Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates
Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates Source: World Bank, ExxonMobil estimates
Source: World Bank, ExxonMobil estimates

01
Energy plays a critical role in supporting modern living standards World population grows from 7.3 billion today to 9.1 billion people in 2040
DATA AS OF 10/26/2016 DATA AS OF 10/26/2016
around the world CSP#
India likely to replace China as the most populous nation by 2025
014 1564 65+ VERSION
AS OF
014 1564 65+
The U.N. Human Development Index summarizes a societys OECD "15" 232.04 841.1 208.25
WorkingNov.
age population
11, 2016has already peaked in China; OECD
likely to"15"
remain232.04
flat 841.1 208.25
achievements in its citizens life expectancy, education and income
"25" 230.4 848.52 263.19in OECD nations but expand in other regions "25" 230.4 848.52 263.19
APPROVED BY
A countrys energy use per capita is well-aligned with its level "40" 222.51 835.11 339.1 "40" 222.51 835.11 339.1
Africas population
Dong increases
Fu at the fastest rate across major regions
of human development
CHINA "15" 236.11 1003.21 The share of people age 65+ gains significance, notablyCHINA
130.87 in OECD
"15"and 236.11
China 1003.21 130.87
01 17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

"25" 229.45 981.63 200.08 "25" 229.45 981.63 200.08


"40" 185.47 864.49 342.32 UNHumanDevIndex.ai "40" 185.47 864.49 342.32
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA
INDIA "15" 377.29 859.69 73.6 INDIA "15" 377.29 859.69 73.6
65+ "25" 367.79 984.74 109.09
CHART
OWNER

"25" 367.79 984.74 109.09 NAME

"40" 348.17 1110.4 175.15


Dong Fu "40" 348.17 1110.4 175.15
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2500Data list is used to drive the black and 1564
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Other AP"15" 324.52 743.85 65.48 white chart, which is then used as a Other AP"15" 324.52 743.85 65.48
01
Fundamentals
Global fundamentals projections

Non-OECD leads economic expansion World GDP doubles World GDP growth
GDP, year-over-year average in percent Trillions of 2010 dollars Trillions of 2010 dollars
5 150 80

Other Non-OECD
125
4 Africa
Non-OECD 60 Other AP Non-OECD

100 India
3

Income 75 40 China

2
50 Other OECD
OECD 20
1 Europe OECD DATA
25
United St
Population United States Europe O
0 0 0
Other OE
8015 1525 2540 8015 1525 2540
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20152040 China
OECD Non-OECD India
AP Non O
Africa
ROW
Economic output (GDP) growth consists of both income
(measured byDATA
GDP per
as capita)
of Oct.and
26,population
2016 growth
World GDP doubles from 2015 to 2040, with non-OECD GDP increasing
175 percent and OECD GDP growing 60 percent CSP# 03 DATA AS OF 10/26/2016
VERSION

AS OF

VERSION
AS
OECDdeclining
OECD GDP growth trend reflects Populationpopulation OECD GDP Non-OECD share of global
80000 GDP will rise to about 50 percent by 2040, up from NonOECD
OECD
'80-'15 0.74 2.3 Nov. 09, 2016 ROW N
growth and steady rise of income about 35 percent in 2015 "00" 37959.1 11559.2
'15-'25 0.46 1.95 APPROVED BY Africa 38488.3 12013.9 APP
Non-OECD GDP growth to 2025 reflects improving outlook China is likely to beFu
Dong the largest contributor of GDP gains, with its share of global 12582.6
39093.2
'25-'40 0.27 1.89
for income growth while population growth slows GDP in 2040 similar to that of Europe OECD andexthe
AP Non OECD India at close to 2039888.5
ChinaU.S. percent 13324
Non-OECD Population Non-OECD GDP 60000 41148.5 14366.5
India will03 17XOM EO-its share ofIndia 04
FILE INFO

FILE INFO
Non-OECD GDP growth post 2025 will moderate
'80-'15 1.62 due to 4.04 grow strongly with global GDP doubling "05" 42241.6 15396.4
lower population growth and slowing gains 43520.7 16641
'15-'25 1.15in income 4.46 OECDGDPGrowth.ai China G
44663.7 18108.7
'25-'40 0.88 3.9 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA 44746.3 19195.9
40000 Other OECD
43168.4 19709
Europe OECD
"10" 44441.8 21192.3
CHART
OWNER

45217.5 22466.8

CHART
OWNER
NAME N
Dong Fu 45778.5 23560.3 D
5 United States
8 OECD GDP 46304.2 24695
20000 47110.9 25751.5
Data list is used to drive the black and Data
NER

NER
white chart, which is then used as a "15" 48004.9 26601.6 whit
150000
template for the color chart. Bars and lines
Purchasing power expands Middle-class expansion accelerates
GDP per capita, thousand of PPP dollars Billion people
80 5

Rest of World
4 Latin America Non-OECD
60
Other AP Non-OECD

3
China
40

2
India
20
1

OECD

0 0
15 40 15 40 15 40 15 40 15 40
2000 2015 2030
United Europe China India Other AP
States OECD Non-OECD Source: The Brookings Institute

Source: The Brookings Institution


PPP: purchasing power parity

05
All regions show significant gains in GDP per capita by 2040 Middle class expands on a global basis, more than doubling
GDP per capita in OECD nations currently averages about by 2030 to reach almost 5 billion people CSP#
VERSION AS OF
four times that of non-OECD economies All of the growth is projected to come from non-OECD
withDATA
Nov.
OECDAS
14,its2016
DATA
U.S. GDP peras of 10/26/2016
capita is likely to reach almost $80,000 by 2040, OF 11/03/2016
holding middle-class population steady
APPROVED BY
while Europe OECD reaches $50,000 "2015" "2040" India and China show the largest increases with eachOtherAP LatinAm
Dong Fu
China United
GDP perStates 52.6256
capita likely to triple, reaching over $40,00078.4849 reaching more than 1 billion middle-class citizens
OECD India China non-OECD non-OECD ROW
05will17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

EUROPE
India also triples OECD 33.4775
but at less than half of Chinas level in 204050.3294 These gains
2000 enable longer,
960.445 healthier
13.5016 and better lives
23.8759 for billions 121.159
74.2645 136.819
China 13.1088 41.9355 2015GDPPerCapita.ai
1072.5 117.508 326.505 181.944 231.037 344.552
XXA
India 5.68082 18.9643 2030 1075.53 1167.71 1041.14
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE 494.093 323.091 563.117
AP Non OECD ex China India 8.549 18.705
CHART
OWNER

NAME
Dong Fu
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5000 Follow @exxonmobil 9
80 Data list is used to drive the black and Rest of World
NER

white chart, which is then used as a


template for the color chart. Bars and lines
01
Fundamentals
Global fundamentals projections

Technology helps us do more with less Global efficiency limits demand growth
Energy: Thousand BTUs CO: Tonnes CO Quadrillion BTUs
per dollar GDP in 2010 dollars per billion BTUs 1,200
12 70
2015 1200
1,000 Demand without
60 DATA as of 11/03/2016 efficiency gains
10
Tonnes CO2 Thousand BTUs Energy savings
"70" 64.625 "70" 10.907 1000
50 64.618 11.086 800
8 64.367 11.064
64.46 10.996
40 800
63.98 10.836 600 Rest of World
6 63.768 10.769
30
63.849 10.793
63.621 10.765 Other AP Non-OECD
600
4 63.279 10.714 400 India
20 63.125 10.629
"80" 62.707 "80" 10.314 China
62.06 10.089 400
2 200
10 61.595 9.973
61.181 9.856 OECD
60.642 9.862 200
0 0 60.213 9.76 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 59.95 9.665 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
59.766 9.669
59.689 9.609 0
00 10 15 20
59.573 9.484
"90" 59.17 "90" 9.511
58.647 9.479 DATA AS OF 11/03/2016
07
58.337 9.361
Technology12helps the world use energy more efficiently 58.113
57.881
9.281
9.112
CSP# OECD
Without efficiency improvements, global energy
"00"
CHINA
demand
225.3 46.74
INDIA
17.9
OTHER AP
26.4
ROW
99.65
by reducing energy intensity Thousand
(the amount of energy used would increase significantly
VERSION

AS OF
BTUs per dollar GDP (2010$) 57.676 9.105 223.98 48.29 18.01 27.46 101.65
per unit of economic output) 57.458 9.047 Nov. 09, 2016
Actual demand is expected to increase about 25 percent51.47
225.04 18.58 28.44 103.52
10 57.395 8.834
Since 1970, global energy intensity has fallen about 1 percent 57.317 8.679 from 2015 to 2040, reflecting large savings due
APPROVED BY to
227.45 58.76 18.96 29.74 107.61
per year on average; this decline is likely to average about 56.802 8.53 efficiency
Dong Fu improvements 232.03 67.54 20.17 31.4 111.37
2 percent per
8 year from 2015 to 2040 "00" 57.014 "00" 8.401 233.82 74.78 20.96 32.14 115.18
57.131 8.304 Demand growth will come from non-OECD nations, where
07 17XOM EO- 233.91 81.78 22.06 32.95 118.46
FILE INFO

Technology also helps moderate the carbon intensity of energy 57.11 8.264 energy use will rise about 40 percent, led by Asia Pacific87.32
236.18 23.35 34.18 121.48
use, which will
6 help lower the carbon intensity of the world
57.768 8.316 GlblAvgEnrgyInten.ai
58.044 8.331 Demand in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East will
231.99 88.33 24.39 34.52 126.24
economy (tonnes CO2 per unit of GDP) by 45 percent by 2040 58.41 8.274 XXA
also grow strongly
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE 221.59 93.73 26.52 35.56 124.42
58.696 8.131 "10" 229.78 101.56 27.92 37.53 130.65
4 59.024 8.005
226.19 110.59 29 37.93 134.84
CHART
OWNER

NAME
58.876 7.905
10 Dong Fu 223.76 115.62 30.38 39.06 138.61
58.694 7.981 DATA AS OF
"10" 58.747 "10" 8.036 225.98 120.84 31.44 40.6 139.34
2 11/03/2016
Data list is used to drive the black and
02

Demand
Subhead goesdemand
Global here for
montrimonii
energy is expected to climb about 25 percent by 2040,
and would soar significantly higher closer to a 100 percent increase
but for anticipated efficiency gains across the economy.

Essentially all of this demand growth will come from non-OECD nations, particularly the expanding economies in the
Asia Pacific region.

Continuing urbanization and a significant expansion of the middle class, particularly in China and India, will help drive this
trend, highlighted by greater access to modern energy in homes, rising industrial demand, and significant increases in
personal and commercial transportation needs.

Growth in global energy demand will be led by the increasing electrification of the global economy; 55 percent of the worlds
energy demand growth over the next quarter century will be tied to power generation to support our increasingly digital and
plugged-in lives. A consequence of this trend will be a large uptick in demand for many types of energy used to generate
electricity, notably less carbon-intensive sources such as natural gas, nuclear, solar and wind.

11
02
Demand
Demand projections
Global energy demand shifts
Energy demand varies by sector toward non-OECD
Primary energyquadrillion BTUs Percent share
300 100

Other renewables
250
Biomass 80 Other Non-OECD

Nuclear
200
60
India
150
Coal
40 China

100
Other OECD
20 Europe OECD
50 Gas

United States
Oil
0 0
15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40
2015 2040
Transportation Residential/ Industrial Electricity
Commercial generation

Energy used in each sector reflects economic supply options and their
DATA AS OF 10/12/2016
general fitness for purpose
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Other Renewables
25 percent CSP#
DATA AS OF 11/03/2016 18
Global demand reaches 700 quadrillion BTUs in 2040, up about

US EUROPE OECD OTHER OECD CHINA INDIA OTHER NonOECD


VERSION

AS OF
Electricity generation is the largest"15"
and 10.41
fastest growing
49.96 89.2 demand
26.52 sector,
6.93 19.5755 Non-OECD share of global energy demand reaches about 70 percent
Nov. 07, 2016
"2015" 92.7 72.2 59.6 120.3 34.1 184.
reflecting strong growthPowergen
in global electricity
"25" 8.76 demand
62.24 94.45 34.7 7.88 28.0703 in 2040, as efficiency gains and economic growth slows in the U.S.
"2040" 91.2 65.4 61.9 153.1 65.0 263.
"40" 7.81 75.63 94.75 50.87 9.22 39.2256 and OECD nations, helping keep energy demand relatively flat
APPROVED BY
A wide variety of energy types will support electricity generation, with Som Sinha
natural gas, nuclear and renewables increasing their share China and India contribute about 45 percent of world energy demand
"15" 59.83 47.98 51.65 0 12.33 0.132739
18growth
17XOMto 2040
EO-
FILE INFO

Natural gas demand increases


Industrial significantly
"25" 68.15 and
57.4gains
51.54share0in all 13.25
sectors 0.178768
700
"40" 78.21 65.94 45.29 0 14.25 0.23414 The combined share of energy used in the U.S. and
EnrgyDmndBySectr.ai OTHEREurope
NonOECD OECD
Oil demand grows to support commercial transportation and chemical needs
nations will decline from
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE
30
XXA percent in 2015 to close to 20 percent
600
"15" 104.74 1.55 0.11 0 0 3.4724
in 2040, similar to Chinas share of world energy INDIA
demand
Transportation "25" 115.64 3.32 0.1 0 0 4.50619
CHART
OWNER

NAME
"40" 123.28 7 0.05 0 0 6.32209 500
Som Sinha CHINA
12 "15" 14.86 24.06 4.47 0 34.51 1.24208
Data list is used to drive the black and 400
NER

Res/Comm "25" 15.22 26.83 4.18 0 35.22 2.08292 white chart, which is then used as a
template for the color chart. Bars and lines OTHER OECD
Global energy mix evolves
Share of primary energy
100
Other renewables

80
Wind/Solar
Nuclear Learn more
Coal

60 Want to learn more


Gas
about global trends in
energy demand?
40

20
Oil

0
2015 2040 Visit us at:
exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
and see our infographic
A global economy on the move
CSP# 17
Oil remains the worlds primary energy source
DATA AS OF 10/12/2016
through 2040, meeting about one-third of demand
OIL ex BIO GAS COAL NUCLEAR Wind + Solar Other Ren VERSION
AS OF
Natural gas grows the most of any energy type,
"2015" 189.8 123.5 145.4 26.5 4.9 73.3 Nov. 06, 2016
reaching a quarter of all demand
"2040" 223.6 177.6 143.1 50.9 20.2 85.1 APPROVED BY
Coal remains important in parts of the world, Matt Agee
but loses significant share as the world transitions
toward energy sources with lower emissions 17 17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

Nuclear and renewables see strong growth, EnrgyDmndByType.ai


contributing close to 40 percent800
of incremental XXA
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE
energy supplies to meet demand growth Other Renewables

700
CHART
OWNER

NAME

Wind + Solar
Matt Agee
600
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white chart, which is then used as a


02
Demand
Transportation projections

Global transportation demand moves higher


MBDOE
70
Rail

Transportation 60 Aviation

Marine
50

40
Advancements in transportation have shrunk our world, while Heavy duty
opening up new vistas and possibilities. One consequence of
30
billions of people joining the global middle class in the next
quarter century is that it will lead to greater travel, additional
20
cars on the road, and increased commercial activity. Global
transportation-related energy demand is projected to increase
Light duty
by about 25 percent. At the same time, total miles traveled per 10

year by cars, sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and light trucks will
increase about 60 percent, reaching about 14 trillion in 2040. 0
As personal mobility increases, average new-car fuel economy 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

(including SUVs and light trucks) will improve as well, rising


from about 30 miles per gallon (mpg) now to close to
50 mpg in 2040. DATA AS OF 10/12/2016
Light Heavy Aviation Marine Rail
Global transportation demand grows about 25 percent
"00" 17609 12765 4588 3760 925
from 2015-2040
17901 13039 4472 3605 914

VERSION
Personal mobility demands continue to increase, but18457 13260 4520 3684 929
more efficient vehicles lead to a peak and eventual 18838 13605 4504 3840 983
in light-duty vehicle (LDV) energy demand 19393
decline70000 14320 4797 4135 1020
"05" 19570 14730 4974 4343 1073
Growth in economic activity and personal
Rail
income drives
19951 15048 5027 4562 1104
increasing
60000trade of goods and services, leading to higher
20222 15907 5157 4797 1111

FILE INFO
energy demand in the commercial transportation sectors
20345 16217 5109 4675 1048
Aviation
20341 16236 4846 4599 971
Heavy 50000
duty growth is the largest by volume, but marine
"10" 21163 17130 5089 4835 1015
and aviation grow the largest by percentage
Marine 21378 17478 5232 4896 1112
40000
21600 18028 5295 4714 1117

CHART
22255 18288 5420 4659 1126
Heavy
14 30000 22902 18568 5536 4600 1122
"15" 23837 18756 5809 4708 1122

NER
Transportation demand varies by region/sector Commercial transportation grows in all aspects
MBDOE MBDOE, 20152040
30
Asia Pacific
OECD Non-OECD Africa Rest of World

25
Heavy duty

20

Marine
15

Aviation
10

5 Rail
Commercial
Light duty
0
15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Asia Pacific North Europe Latin Russia/ Africa Middle
America America Caspian East

Commercial transportation energy demand grows in all regions as economic


growth stimulates demand for trucking, aviation, marine andDATA
rail AS OF 10/12/2016
Significant efficiency gains help limit growth in commercial transportation
energy use to about 70 percent in the non-OECD and 20 percent in the CSP# 20
Comm OECD AS from 2015-2040
VERSION
OF
Light
Majority of growth in commercial transportation occurs in the non-OECD,
"15" 6191.6 10671.2 Nov. DATA
06, 2016
AS OF 10/12/2016
consistent with the growth in GDP Asia Pacific "25" 7740.5 Technology advances in trucks will come from engine designs,
13791.5
18279.2 aerodynamic improvements to the body
APdesign and hybridization
APPROVED BY
Light-duty vehicle energy demand decreases throughout much of the"40"OECD,8467.6 OECD NonOECD Africa ROW
Billy Landuyt
including North America and Europe, as efficiency gains outweigh the increases Marine and air transport see efficiency gains from improved body design, 1.46
tranroadheavy 1.31 3.59 1.45
"15" 10062.6 5970.8 tranmarine 0.65 2.1 0.24 0.39
in the number of vehicles and miles traveled 6713.2 engine 20
improvements
17XOM and
EO-logistics
FILE INFO

North America"25" 9548.9 tranair 0.53 1.56 0.21 0.49


LDV energy demand increases throughout the non-OECD, led by Asia"40" 7296.6
Pacific, 7773.8
TransDmndByReg.ai
tranother 0 0.43 0.016 0.022
Africa and the Middle East as car penetration rises with economic growth XXA
"15" 3493.5 5410.9 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE

EUROPE "25" 2697.3 5848.9


"40" 2005.5 6115.6
CHART
OWNER

NAME
Billy Landuyt
tranroadheavy
"15" 1444
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30000 Latin America"25" 1847.5 2869 Data list is used to drive the black and
Comm
NER

"40" 2112.3 3573.4 white chart, which is then used as a


ROW
tranmarine
template for the color chart. Bars and lines
02
Demand
Transportation projections

Global transportation energy mix evolves Access to personal mobility increases


MBDOE Vehicles per thousand people
70 600
Other
Natural gas
60 Jet fuel 500

Fuel oil
50
400

40
Diesel
300
30
Motorcycles
200
20

Gasoline 100
10
Cars

0 0
15 40 15 40 15 40 15 40 15 40 15 40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Europe South Korea Brazil China Indonesia India

21
Oil meets about 95 percent of transportation energy needs due to As incomes rise, individuals seek access to personal mobility that
widespread availability, economic advantages and high energy density CSP#
is afforded by cars and motorcycles
DATA as of 10/12/2016
VERSION

AS OF
Gasoline demand flattens as average new-car fuel economy improves Motorcycles facilitate a lower cost entry point to personal mobility,
DATA AS OF 10/12/2016 Nov.
with09, 2016particularly high in Asia Pacific
ownershipMotorcycles LDVs
Diesel demand grows 30 percent to meet trucking and marine needs,
MOGAS DIST Fuel Oil Kero/Jet GAS Other APPROVED BY
while jet fuel demand rises about 50 percent Car ownership significantly increases
"2015" in the non-OECD, with
"2040" "2015" "2040"
"00" 19.1 12.4 2.6 4.5 0.1 0.9 Billy Landuyt
"10" to be used
21.9in marine17.1 3.5
Asia Pacific
Europe leading the growth
510.67 569.51 Europe 449.87 508.71
Fuel oil will continue shipping, though utilized5with 0.5 1.2
21 theSouth
In17XOM OECD,Korea
the fleet360.81
EO- 475.47 South Korea 316.3 425.47
FILE INFO

"20"
scrubbers or desulfurized 25.2 regulatory
to meet 21.3 requirements
3.1 6.3 1.2 1.3 grows but cars per 1,000 people increases
"30" 24.7 23.8 4.1 7.4 2.2 1.6 only Brazil
by about
TransDmndByFuel.ai 10 242.28
percent from 397.07
2015-2040 Brazil 162.26 322.07
Natural gas, biofuels
"40" and electricity
23.5 grow25.4 significantly5.1
in select sectors
8.6 3.4 2.1 China 180.69
XXA
427.63 China 100.17 294.01
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE
Indonesia 433.27 589.6 Indonesia 50.22 144.6
India 134.13 378.02 India 21.62 103.02
CHART
OWNER

NAME
Billy Landuyt
16 70
Other Data list is used to drive the black and
NER

white chart, which is then used as a


600 600
Average new-car fuel economy to improve rapidly U.S. car sales by class evolve
Miles per gallon Percent
70 100

60 Small
80
2021
50
2020
2021
Target 2020 60 Mid-size
40
2025
Large
30 Vans
40

20 SUVs

20
10

Pickups
0 0
08 15 40 08 15 40 08 15 40 08 15 40 08 15 40 08 15 40
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
World United States European Japan China India
Union

DATA ON SECOND PAGE


Fuel economy of cars has improved in recent years as many nations adopt
fuel economy standards CSP#
growing, reflecting consumer preferences versus small cars
VERSION
24
Over the past 35 years, the share of SUVs in U.S. sales has been

AS OF
Progress on fuel economy targets is dependent on technology, costs and In the near term, SUVs and pickup trucks will maintain market share; however,
Nov. 11, 2016
consumer preferences for vehicle types post 2020 small cars are likely to gain share versus these categories
APPROVED BY
The fuel economy of the light-duty fleet will continue to improve over Smaller vehicle
Billy options
Landuytare likely to grow in the SUV and pickup categories
the Outlook period, with substantial gains beyond current policy targets Falling battery costs will enable small, shorter-range electric cars to
exceed24 17XOM EO- of new car sales in the U.S. by 2040, as
FILE INFO

2040
Average fuel economy of new cars worldwide will rise from about 30 mpg more than 10 percent
in 2015 to close to 50 mpg in 2040 high cost differentials
AvgNewCarEcon.ai begin to narrow versus conventional cars
2015 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA
100
70 Small
2008
CHART
OWNER

NAME
Billy Landuyt
60 Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe to energyfactor.com Follow @exxonmobil 17
80 Mid-size
Data list is used to drive the black and
NER

white chart, which is then used as a


02
Demand
Transportation projections

Global fleet increases and diversifies Fuel economy gains stem demand growth
Billion cars Light-duty vehicle demand Total vehicle miles traveled
2.0 MBDOE Trillion miles
45 16

Electric/Plug-in/Fuel cell
40 14
Full hybrid
1.0 35
Natural gas/LPG 12
Diesel 30
10
25
1.0
8
20
6
15
Gasoline
0.5 4
10

5 2

0 0 0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
DATA AS OF 10/12/20
TOTAL VM
"00"
17609.2 "00" 5743.
Driven by increases in personal income and population, the global Improving new-car fuel economy will enable energy demand to peak in 17901.1 5870.
fleet of cars, DATA AS pickups
SUVs and OF 10/12/2016
approximately 1.8 billion
grows about 80 percent to
vehicles
Gasoline Diesel Natural Gas & LPG Full Hybrid Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell
CSP# 26
the 2020s, even as total miles traveled increases significantly to 2040
Out to 2040, energy demand decreases in the OECD more than it
18457.1
18837.8
6041.
6091.
19393.4 6315.
VERSION

AS OF
"10" 697995 105104 16475 3763 7 16000
Conventional cars (primarily gasoline-powered) will remain the most increases in the non-OECD, driving down
TOTAL CARSglobal
VMT LDV energy demand
"15" 838295 130877 19249 10145 800 Nov. 09, 2016 19569.9 6484.
popular due to their cost, functionality and increasing fuel efficiency
"20" 943910 165702 22031 23396 5048 Although energy
APPROVED BY
demand peaks, personal mobility continues to
14000 19951.2 6680.
Full hybrid"25"
vehicles reach approximately
1.05792e+06 183172 15 percent25519
of the fleet,40203
though 12312 increase globally as total miles traveled by all cars, SUVs and pickups
Billy Landuyt 20222 6939.
many hybrid"30" 1.15978e+06
features, 186859 engines, penetrate
such as start-stop 33181 into71012 25785 rises to almost 12000
14 trillion in 2040 20344.7 7093.
"35"vehicles
conventional 1.21311e+06 177424 42516 140513 55883
26 17XOM EO-of energy savings reflect more efficient internal
FILE INFO

About two-thirds 20341 7104.


"40" 1.19622e+06 167535 52171 252617 109483 10000
Electric vehicles penetrate the small to mid-size car segment across the combustion engines, with the balance resulting from adoption of "10"
GlblFleetByType.ai 21163.2 "10" 7408.
world, and in certain places grow faster with policy support hybrid or electric vehicles
XXA 21377.8 7515.
8000
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE
Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell 21600.5 7629.
22255.3 7900.
6000
CHART
OWNER

NAME
Billy Landuyt 22901.9 8149.
18 Full Hybrid
4000 23837.2 8573.
Data list is used to drive the black and 24338.2 8929
R
Residential and commercial projections

Residential & commercial


demand shifts to non-OECD
Quadrillion BTUs
150

Residential and
Russia/Caspian

125 Africa 150

commercial 100
Middle East
Latin America

Other Asia Pacific


125

75 India 100

As populations grow and prosperity rises around the world,


we will need more energy to power homes, offices, schools, China
50 75
shopping centers, churches and the like. Combined residential
and commercial energy demand is projected to rise by about Europe
25 percent by 2040. About 90 percent of this demand growth 25 50

will be met by electricity. Led by the growing economies of North America


non-OECD nations, average worldwide household electricity 0 25
use will rise about 30 percent between 2015 and 2040. 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0
00

Growth in households, rising prosperity and expanding commercial activity


will spur higher demand for lighting, heat and power in homes and offices
North America Europe China India Other AP Latin America Middle East
Africa Russia/Caspian
Residential
"00" and22.81
commercial
18.5 energy
12.46 demand
6.32 will
13.81rise about3.48
25 percent
2.77by 9.46 9.26
2040, consistent with19.35
22.43 overall population
12.58 6.4 growth
14.05 3.46 2.86 9.7 9.25
22.99 18.95 12.78 6.56 14.47 3.49
Essentially all growth will be in non-OECD nations where demand will rise 3.05 9.97 8.92
23.58 19.71 13.29 6.7 14.59 3.52 3.16 10.28 9.2
close to 40 percent
23.38 19.92 14.18 6.91 14.85 3.62 3.44 10.59 9.06
Africa and China will each
23.56 20.1 account
14.73 for7.05
about 30
15.12percent of the increase
3.74 3.68 10.9 8.65
in demand 22.53 20.12 15.3 7.17 15.19 3.83 3.98 11.2 8.95
23.51 19.01 16.01 7.26 15.35 4 4.18 11.5 9.09
23.66 20.08 15.99 7.55 15.37 4.01 4.2 11.87 9.46
23.26 19.86 16.53 8.05 15.48 4.07 4.38 12.2 8.82
"10" 23.46 21.12 17.02 8.21 15.91 4.27 4.44 12.36 9.04
23.34 19.33 17.83 8.22 16.04 4.3 4.5 12.82 9.46
Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe to energyfactor.com Follow @exxonmobil
22.18 20.15 18.55 8.48 16.3 4.42 4.47 13.26 9.1519
22.75 20.21 19.52 8.69 16.38 4.53 4.58 13.59 8.78
02
Demand
Residential and commercial projections

Residential/Commercial Rising prosperity promotes air conditioning


electricity demand surges Potential air conditioning requirement for 30 major metropolitan areas
Quadrillion BTUs
150
Other

125 150
Other (Renew. + Mkt Heat)
150

Electricity Elec Chongqing


Delhi
100 125 125 LPG Baghdad
Tehran Calcutta Wuhan Osaka
Biomass/Other Lahore
Dhaka
Cairo Shanghai
Miami Karachi Guangzhou
Coal Ahmadabad Hong Kong
75 100 100 Hyderabad
Manila
Gas Ho Chi Minh
Biomass Mumbai Bangkok
Oil Lagos Chennai
50 75 75 Kinshasa Bangalore Jakarta
Coal
Belo Horizonte
Gas Sao Paulo Rio de Janeiro
25 50 50
Oil
LPG
0 25 25 Cooling degree days multiplied by metropolitan population
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
60,000 30,000 15,000 5,000
0 Source: Sivak
Source: Sivak 0
00 10 20 3040 00 10 20 303540
35
Energy shifts reflect rising living standards and increasing Cooling degree days multiplied by population is indicative of an urban areas

VERSION
AS OF
urbanization through 2040 potential need for air conditioning
Electricity demand
"00" rises
Oil Gas
70 percent,
16.38 20.94
Coal Biomass
accounting
3.88
Elec
29.05 for 22.83
Other
5.79 "00"
LPG
6.91
CSP# 44
Nearly all of the highest ranking metropolitan areas by cooling degree days are in
Nov
VERSION

AS OF APPRO
90 percent of demand16.66growth20.94
from 2015-2040,
3.88 29.22 23.45 5.92 6.87 the developing world
and reaching a share of 40 percent
16.15 21.4 in3.87
2040 29.48 24.53 5.73 6.87 Nov. 16, 2016 T
Demand for air conditioning typically increases with rising incomes and urbanization
16.3 22.34 4.02 30.05 25.31 6 7.04 APPROVED BY
Natural gas use grows about 20 percent, keeping its 42

FILE INFO
16.51 22.49 4.31 30.4 26.21 6.04 7.43 5 of the 15 warmest, most densely populated cities are in India
Todd Onderdonk
share around 20 percent through 2040
16.43 22.56 4.42 30.91 27.37 5.85 7.42
Smart design, insulation and temperature controls can greatly improve building Dur
Biomass demand peaks, 15.8aided by growing
22.52 4.52 access
31.19 to28.28 5.97 7.41 44 17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

energy efficiency and comfort IN


15.23
modern energy in non-OECD 23.15 4.49with its
nations, 31.57
share29.49 5.98 7.39
ResCommByFuel.ai
declining to about 20 15.29
percent23.85
in 20404.82 31.9 30.23 6.08 7.42
XXA

CHART
OWNER
NAM
15.12 23.4 5.03 32.43 30.56 6.11 7.67 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE
To
"10" 15.08 24.46 4.79 32.98 32.08 6.43 "10" 7.84
14.9 24.02 4.58 33.33 32.34 6.68 8.1
CHART
OWNER

NAME
Data lis
20

: OWNER
14.75 23.38 4.88 33.84 33.23 6.88 8.56 Todd Onderdonk white c
templat
14.51 24.72 4.7 34.17 34.05 6.88 8.36 are cut
white te
Household electricity up in non-OECD Residential energy use reflects efficiency gains
Megawatt hours per household per year Million BTUs per household per year
12 12000 100
Mideast

10 10000
80 Africa
Middle East

8 North America 8000 India


60

6 6000 China

40
4 Europe 4000 Europe
China Other
India Electricity
20 NorthAm
2 2000
Gas
Africa LPG
Biomass
0 0 0
00 10 20 30
00 1535
40
40 00 15 40 00 15 40 00 15 40 00 15 40 00 15 40 00 15 40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
North Latin Africa Europe Russia/ Middle Asia
America America Caspian East Pacific

DATA AS OF 11/03/2016
Biomass LPG Gas Electricity Other
Residential electricity use will rise about 75 percent by 2040,
driven by a nearly 150 percent increase in non-OECD nations
Household energy use continues to improve,
buildings and appliances
VERSION
NORTH AMERICA CSP#
"00"
"15"
reflecting
3.872 45
more efficient
5.536 12.422
5.997
36.028
27.053
"40" 2.057 3.223 19.24
32.427
31.315
26.893
8.03
1.822
1.447
AS OF
DATA
Electricity use per household willAS OF
rise 10/27/2016
about 30 percent globally, Energy use evolves to favor use of electricity
Nov. 09, 2016 "00" 9.465 7.328 2.927 5.934 1.236
as household use in non-OECD countries risesEurope
NorthAm China
about 70 percentIndia Africa Mideast
LATIN AMERICA "15"on biomass
7.096 products
5.601 3.098 6.985 0.393
"00" 9502.83 3815.28 429.49 427.41 728.71 5602.68 People in Africa and Asia Pacific still rely to a large
APPROVED BY "40" 4.548 4.324 2.979 7.646 0.435
Electricity use per household in OECD nations3907.82
9445.19 will be 463.62 440.08 692.14 5723.67 degree; about Todd 2.7Onderdonk
billion people worldwide still use biomass for cooking
flat-to-down as efficiencies help limit10176.8 3905.33
electricity 498.29
requirements 458.05 708.36 5869.3 and about 1.2 billion people still lack access "00" to51.17 2.508
electricity 0.122 2.487 1.771
10129.9 4015.88 567.87 486.63 769.52 5836.4 AFRICA "15" 44.481 2.642 0.22 2.91 1.133
45 17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

Residential electricity use in Africa and India is4031.95


likely to increase "40" 29.689 3.004 0.571 5.064 1.226
10094.9 641.75 506.46 747.76 6013.88
about 250 percent though both areas will continue
10324.4 4047.84 to lag in
761.59 517.28 790.07 6171.74 ElecPerHouse.ai "00" 6.837 3.167 21.062 13.019 16.759
terms of electricity use per household 10094.8 4080.47 862.48 564.21 804.56 6644.07 EUROPE
XXA
"15" 7.784 1.65 17.639 13.176 11.279
10287.3 4026.77 1012.34 581.89 825.83 6676.03 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE "40" 6.692 0.576 15.017 13.501 5.969
10113.6 4054.2 1072.46 607.88 845.98 6836.46 "00" 1.289 1.404 29.104 7.071 37.868
9690.81 4035.42 1164.09 654.87 817.39 7147.57
CHART
OWNER

NAME RUSSIA/CASPIAN "15" 1.09 3.296 17.715 6.784 21.749


"10" 10034.5 4138.95 1188.81 705.08 851.15 7485.51 Todd Onderdonk "40" 0.752 2.445 13.725 9.487 15.309
9788.21 3942.69 1277.38 Visit exxonmobil.com
750.23 852.69 7131.6 Subscribe to energyfactor.com Follow @exxonmobil 21
"00" 0.243 12.965 20.94 19.118 17.761
9384.91 4046.38 1384.16 784.63 896.97 7523.45 Data list is used to drive the black and
MIDDLE EAST "15" 0.289 9.806 30.524 27.538 6.714
NER

white chart, which is then used as a


9429.32 4005.59 1520.67 848.17 877.76 7777.22 template for the color chart. Bars and lines "40" 0.059 7.186 21.464 30.962 2.321
02
Demand
Industrial projections

Industrial demand fuels economic activity


Quadrillion BTUs
300

Industrial 250
Chemicals DATA AS OF 09/28/2016
OtherEnergy IndustryHeavy Industry
200 Chemical
"2000" 12.441 32.483 70.564 32.847
12.754 32.564 70.154 32.541
Almost half of the worlds energy use is dedicated to 150 13.054 33.438 71.613 32.63
industrial activity, including half of global electricity Heavy industry
13.263 35.309 75.349 33.804
14.161 36.472 80.983 35.945
demand. Those statistics often get lost in discussions about "2005" 14.734 38.279 84.731 36.859
energy that focus on direct consumption at the individual 100
15.118 38.651 89.637 37.846
or household level the miles per gallon a car gets, for 15.169 39.216 93.708 39.914
14.872 40.442 94.406 39.238
instance, or the size of ones utility bill. What this unseen 50 14.273 39.486 92.423 39.635
Energy industry
energy consumption reveals is the critical importance of "2010" 14.657 40.441 99.844 43.304
manufacturing, infrastructure and agriculture to the 14.852 41.528 103.667 44.706
Other
0 14.973 43.958 104.544 45.461
modern economy. That importance will continue as 14.936 43.781 108.02 46.825
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
industrial energy demand rises by about 25 percent by 15.406 43.534 107.735 47.447
2040, led by growth in the chemicals sector. "2015" 15.768 42.92 106.881 48.156
15.842 44.578 105.404 48.88
15.995 44.958 105.471 49.971
16.219 45.317 107.054 51.006
16.457 45.643 108.484 52.066
Industrial activity spurs economic growth while meeting "2020" 16.676 45.95 109.846 53.051
consumer demand for buildings, roads, durable goods, etc. 16.873 46.276 111.028 53.97
17.065 46.586 112.325 55.015

VERSION
Almost half of the worlds energy is dedicated to industry 17.261 46.971 113.678 56.012
17.447 47.11 115.17 57.182
Industrial energy demand will rise by about 25 percent
300
"2025" 17.622 47.275 116.657 58.412
Chemical
2015-2040; the chemicals sector sees the highest growth 17.807 47.415 117.616 59.506
17.98 47.485 118.629 60.698
Efficiency250improvements in industrial processes moderate 18.148 47.541 119.709 62.142
Heavy Industry

FILE INFO
energy demand growth 18.311 47.606 120.844 63.204
"2030" 18.46 47.781 122.028 64.122
Energy industry
200 demand is linked to trends in production
Energy Industry
"2035" 18.983 47.414 124.77 67.708
of oil, gas and coal "2040" 19.477 46.891 125.518 70.335

Other (agriculture,
150 asphalt, lubricants) grows modestly
Other

CHART
22 100

NER
Industrial demand reflects diverse energy mix Heavy industry demand shifts regionally
Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs
300 70

Rest of World
60
250
Electricity/Market heat
50
200 Biomass/Other

40
Coal
150 China
30 OECD
Gas
100
20

50 Oil
10
Chemicals

0 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

DATA AS OF 09/28/2016
Secondary OECD China ROW
300 Biomass + Renew 32.5"2000"
12.2 25.8
Coal 31.2 12.7 26.2
Industry uses energy as a chemical feedstock and fuel
to250
Gas
produce heat, drive motors, power robots, etc.
Oil ex bio
After a decade of rapid growth, Chinas heavy industry
CSP#
energy demand (for steel, cement, etc.) contracts 48 31.4
31.7
13.3
16.1
26.9
27.5
32.1 20.1 28.7
VERSION
AS OF
Natural gas and electricity/market heat each rise by about Chinas demand begins to parallel the OECDs path"2005" as its 31.3
Nov. 16, 2016 23.8 29.6
40
200percent 2015-2040 economy shifts toward higher value manufacturing and services 32.1 26.5 31
DATA
Industrial coal use is expected to plateau ASgradually
then OF 09/28/2016
decline
APPROVED BY
Growth in heavy industry moves to other emerging markets, 32 29.6 32.1
Oil ex bio Gas Coal Biomass + Secondary
Lynne Taschner 30.8 30.9 32.7
Chemled
Oil by India, Africa and Southeast Asia
Oil
150declines as a fuel but grows as a building block36.946
"2000" 49.022 for chemicals,
26.6 8.917 26.851 "2000" 17.607 27.2 33.1 32.1
70 48 17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

roads and lubricants 49.398 36.04 26.867 8.698 27.009 17.572


Globally, heavy industry energy demand grows around "2010" 29.3 35.9 34.6
50.284 36.78 27.32 8.831 27.522 18.515 ROW 29.4 38.7 35.5
100 51.079 38.291 30.573 9.135 28.649 15 percent
19.006 lndDmndBySource.ai
2015-2040
28.7 39.4 36.5
53.977 39.093 34.928 9.493 30.072 20.19 60 XXA
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE 29.4 41.7 36.9
"2005" 54.448 40.54 38.259 9.788 31.568 "2005" 20.081 China
30 40.2 37.5
55.654 41.132 40.878 10.328 33.26 20.852
50 56.041 42.577 44.069 10.595 34.724 50 "2015" 29.9 38.7 38.3
21.716
CHART
OWNER

NAME
55.216 43.767 44.602 10.694 34.678 21 Lynne Taschner OECD 29 37.7 38.7
54.391 41.57 45.63 10.497 33.729 21.631 40 Subscribe to energyfactor.com 29.2 36.8 39.5
Visit exxonmobil.com Follow @exxonmobil 23
0 "2010" 56.435 44.549 49.394 11.001 36.867 "2010" 23.228 29.4 37.1 40.6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2035
2040 Data list is used to drive the black and
NER

2030 56.22 46.403 52.146 11.173 38.81 23.421 white chart, which is then used as a 29.5 37.3 41.7
template for the color chart. Bars and lines
02
Demand
Industrial projections

Heavy industry energy mix shifts to electricity and gas Chemicals demand rises rapidly
Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs
70 80

60 70
Other

Oil 60
50 Other chemicals
50
40 Coal

40
30
Gas 30
Steam cracking
20
20

10 Electricity/ 10
Market heat
Fertilizer
0 0
2015 2025 2040 2015 2025 2040 2015 2025 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
OECD China Rest of World

DATAenergy
AS OFmix09/28/2016
50
Heavy industrys will shift toward lower direct emissions energy sources Demand for chemical products outpaces GDP in many
Electricity and gas2015
Secondary
demand grow
Gas
three7.664
Coal Oil ex Bio
times as5.927
fast as total3.652
Other
energy 3.054
CSP#
emerging markets
OECD 9.594 DATA AS OF 10/26/2
VERSION

AS OF
OECD 2025coal demand
10.863 drops
8.686 3.90840 percent
2.902 3.181 Rising prosperity propels demand for fertilizer, plastics Fertilizer Steam Cracki
Chinas heavy industry by almost 2015-2040 Nov. 10,and
2016other chemical products Other Chemicals "2000" 6.84 11.
OECD 2040 11.959 9.085 2.467 2.207 3.138
Coal continues to play a role in steel and cement manufacturing APPROVED BY 6.67 11.
Steam cracking transforms
80 hydrocarbon molecules into 6.9 11.
China 2015 10.835 0.979 24.828 2.078 0.01 Lynne Taschner
Steamproducts
the basic building blocks for plastic Crackingused in homes, 6.98 11.
China 2025 13.376 2.756 20.943 1.467 0.085 7.43 12.
health care, cars70 and commerce
50 17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

China 2040 14.29 3.902 15.412 0.766 0.159 "2005" 7.68 12.
The chemicals sector users Fertilizer
energy in two ways: as a fuel 7.77 13.
HvyIndFuelMix.ai 60 8.12 13
ROW 2015 8.936 8.05 10.518 5.758 4.996 and as a feedstock 7.99 13.
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA
ROW 2025 12.654 10.212 13.379 6.157 6.086 7.87 13.
ROW 2040 18.968 14.101 15.565 6.258 7.242
Chemicals energy 50demand grows by 45 percent 2015-2040 "2010" 8.21 14.
8.47 15.
CHART
OWNER

NAME
Lynne Taschner 40 8.63 15.
24 70 Other 8.78 16.
8.38 16.
Oil ex Bio Data list is used to drive the black and 30
NER

white chart, which is then used as a "2015" 8.38 17.


Chemicals demand expands with rising incomes Chemicals demand favors oil and gas
Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs
80 25

Fuel
70
20 Feedstock
60

Asia Pacific
50
15

40
Africa
Middle East 10
30
Russia/Caspian
20 Latin America
Europe 5
10
North America
0 0
15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Naphtha Gas liquids Other oil Gas Coal Electricity/
Market heat

Chemicals production, and the associated energy demand,


migrates to regions with competitive advantages like low-cost
DATA AS OF 10/04/2016
demand, fuel about one-third CSP# 52
Feedstock comprises about two-thirds of chemicals energy

DATA
AS OF AS OF 10/26/2016 DATA AS OF 09/28/2016
VERSION
feedstocks or burgeoning local demand Since 2000, gas liquids use has grown by two-thirds as unconventional
NAm EuroLatAm Rus/Casp MidEast Africa AP Nov. 09, 2016 "2015" "2025" "2040"
Fuel Feedstock
Developing Asia Pacific sees the largest growth driven6.29
"2000" 9.36 by 1.35 2.63 1.64 0.54 11.05 oil andNaphtha
gas have expanded 13.1 supplies, particularly
16.3 in the U.S.
22.8
8.67 6.28 1.39 2.66 1.69 0.46 11.39 APPROVED BY 33 67
population sizeAsia
and robust GDP growth
Pacific Gas Liquids 9.2 14.5 19.4
7.75 6.28 1.37 2.58 1.72 0.56
12.37 Naphtha and gas liquids
Lynne are expected
Taschner to see similar volume growth
Other Oil 3.3 2.9 2.6
Middle East chemicals
Africa energy demand more than doubles
7.55 6.42 1.44 2.68 1.75 0.56 13.4 and together account for about 60 percent of demand by 2040
8.16 6.4 1.47 2.92 2.03 0.53 14.43 Gas 10.9 12.8 14.2
a 52 17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

Access to low-cost natural gas liquids (NGL)


Middle East feedstocks
"2005" 7.85 6.52triggers
1.56 3.06 2.14 0.51
15.22 Gas isCoal
feedstock for fertilizers
5.6 and other
6.4chemicals, 5.5
U.S. chemicals expansion 7.68 6.31 1.63 3.13 2.33 0.54 16.23 ChemDmndByReg.ai
and is Elec/Heat
also used as a fuel 6 5.4 5.8
Russia/Caspian 7.72 6.75 1.57 3.26 2.57 0.54 17.5
XXA
Chemicals produced in these key regions are traded 7.23 globally
6.52 1.59 3.25 2.9 0.53 China usesINcoal
17.21 ENERGY asOUTLOOK
a fuel and an alternative chemical feedstock
ON PAGE

as intermediateLatin
orAmerica
final products 6.86 5.94 1.62 3.38 3.11 0.6 18.12
80 "2010" 7.99 6.24 1.68 4.2 3.44 0.64 19.11 25
CHART
OWNER

NAME
Europe 8.12 6.15 1.62 4.23 3.67 0.58 20.33
7.68 6.05 1.62 4.29 3.86 0.66 21.3
Lynne Taschner
70 North America 8.36 6.1 1.59Visit exxonmobil.com
4.24 3.7 0.63 22.21 Subscribe to energyfactor.com Follow @exxonmobil
2040 25
8.06 6.07 1.6 4.33 3.84 0.61 22.94 Data list is used to drive the black and
20
NER

white chart, which is then used as a


"2015" 8.12 5.99 1.6 4.26 3.97 0.6 23.62 template for the color chart. Bars and lines
02
Demand
Electricity and power generation projections

Electricity demand grows in all sectors


Thousand TWh (net delivered)
40

Electricity and 30
Transportation

power generation Residential/Commercial

20

Economic growth and development worldwide will


increasingly be powered by electricity, notes the
10
International Energy Agency (IEA). Global electricity Industrial
demand will rise by 60 percent between 2015 and
2040, accounting for 55 percent of the worlds energy
demand growth. These facts offer challenges alongside 0
opportunities, and will alter the global energy landscape. 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
As electricity use rises, the types of energy used to
generate it will diversify, globally and regionally,
DATA AS OF 10/12/2016
led by natural gas, nuclear and renewables.
INDUSTRIAL RES/COMM TRANSPORTATION
TRANSPORTATION
Global electricity demand rises by 60 percent 2015-2040"00" 6335.9 6691.7 188.4
6361.1 6872.3 197.3
Residential and commercial electricity demand seen rising by 6480.8 7189.4 203.3

VERSION
RES/COMM
70 percent 40000
from 2015-2040; industrial demand grows by 50 percent
6788.5 7417.3 212.5
Industrial electricity demand growth moderates post-2030 as 7157.6 7682.2 217.4
INDUSTRIAL 7473.9 8020.8 220.3
Chinas economy shifts from heavy industry to services and
7853 8286.4 224.4
lighter manufacturing
30000
8290.1 8641.4 234.1

FILE INFO
Transportation demand more than doubles 2015-2040, 8383.2 8860.4 230.2
but makes up only 2 percent of total use 8174.5 8955.9 231.8
"10" 8926 9402.2 245.8
20000 9407.7 9476 262.3
9612.8 9737.3 267.1

CHART
9992.2 9977.1 270.8
10222.8 10057.7 277.8
26 10000 10274.4 10224.3 288.7
D

NER
10354.9 10457.1 292.3 w
t
Electricity supplies reflect diverse sources Electricity supply mix shifts
Thousand TWh (net delivered) Percent share TWh (net delivered)
40 100

Other renewables

80
30 Other renewables Wind/Solar

Wind/Solar Nuclear
60
Nuclear
20
Gas
40
Gas

10
20
Coal
Coal

0 Oil 0 Oil
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2015 2040

DATA AS OF 10/12/2016
ledDATA gas,AS OF 11/03/2016
World shifts to less carbon-intensive energy for electricity
Oil Coal generation,
1/1/002035
Electricity supplies from coal plateau around 1029as5140
Gas Nuclear
natural2360
by
Slr/Wnd
2222 wind and
gas, nuclear,
renewables
OthrRnw (wind, solar) and nuclear
28 solar2437
continue toASgrow VERSION
CSP# 56 CSP
OF

VERSION
AS OF
1/1/01 993 5197 2512 2281 35 2412
Coal provides less than 30 percent of worlds
1/1/02 electricity
987 5411 in 2040,
2672 versus about 4047percent2469
2287 Nov. 09,
in 2015 COAL
OIL GAS 2016
NUCLEAR Solar/Wind Other Renewables Nov. 10, 2016
"2015"58 866.85 8122.84 4694.24 2228.96 965.39 3909.15
Wind and solar electricity supplies grow1/1/03 987percent,
about 360 5785 approaching
2819 2274
15 "2040" 2495
percent of global
772.17 electricity by 2040
APPROVED
9538.99 8792.64
BY
4435.67 4456.38 5554.9
APPROVED BY

1/1/04 992 5962 3020 2356 76 2651 Som Sinha Lynne Taschner
Renewables growth supported by policies to reduce
1/1/05 CO2 emissions
990 6290 3184 2381 93 2777
Other Renewables
1/1/06 933 6659 3354 2406 120 2892 56 17XOM EO- 80 17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

FILE INFO
1/1/07 959 7094 3645 2355 155 2959 35000
Solar/Wind
1/1/08 913 7137 3774 2363 202 3085 ElecNetDelivered.ai Other Renewables FuelInputElecGe
1/1/09 857 6986 3798 2322 257 3142 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PA
30000
NUCLEAR 1/1/10 847 7494 4154 2386 325 3368
Solar/Wind
1/1/11 935 7896 4209 2231 433 3442
CHART
OWNER

CHART
OWNER
NAME NAME

1/1/12 1005 7933 4398 2128 542 3611 25000 Som Sinha Lynne Taschner
GAS
40000
1/1/13 926 8341 Visit
4393 exxonmobil.com
2151 677 3752 Subscribe to energyfactor.com NUCLEAR Follow @exxonmobil 27
1/1/14 900 8369 4430 2181 816 3863 Data list is used to drive the black and Data list is used to drive the black
NER

NER
white chart, which is then used as a white chart, which is then used as
20000
template for the color chart. Bars and lines template for the color chart. Bars a
02
Demand
Electricity and power generation projections

Global nuclear, wind, solar capacity surges Electricity sources shift regionally
Gigawatts Thousand TWh, 20152040
1,400 Other Asia Pacific Rest of World
China Middle East
OECD India Africa
1,200
Gas

1,000
Wind/Solar

800
Nuclear

600 Capacity
Other
renewables
400
Coal

200 Net
Utilization Oil

0
2015 2040 2015 2040 2015 2040 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Nuclear Wind Solar

DATA AS OF 10/12/2016
54
Global nuclear, wind and solar see significant capacity additions Sources for electricity generation change from 2015-2040, and the shifts
Nuclear capacity grows by 75 percent 2015-2040, led by China vary regionally OECD CSP#
China India Other AP Africa Middle East ROW
Gas 1051 700 121 299 546 693 689
VERSION

AS OF
Gas leads growth as a source for electricity generation, with growing97
Although utilization improves over time, intermittency limits Nov. 11, Wind/Solar
2016 1695 939 376 117 114 155
DATA AS OF 10/12/2016 demand in OECD, China, and
Nuclear 413in countries
1203 where 199domestically
102 available
103 107 80
worldwide wind and solar capacity utilization to nearly
APPROVED BY Other Renews 220 391 178 197 257 23 379
30 percent and 20 percent, respectively Capa Utilization Wind, solar grow significantly, with about three-quarters of the growth from
Som Sinha
Coal 622 1008 1015 223
Nuclear OECD and China; other renewables, particularly hydro, grow across all regions
Wind and solar together provide "15" 377 as nuclear292
similar electricity Oil 146 9
"40" 656 565 54 17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

in 2040 Nuclear grows, with moreOECD


than 50 percent
China ofIndia
the growth
Othercoming
AP from China MidEast
Africa ROW
Gas
NucAndRenewCapa.ai
Coal-fired generation
Wind/Solar shrinks in OECD, but is more than offset by growth in
Wind "15" 437 93
many
IN countries in Asia
Nuclear XXA
Pacific to support their rapidly expanding economies
"40" 1307 381 ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE
OtherRenes
Global generation
Coal from oil-1401
shrinks, with growth seen only in Africa -50
CHART
OWNER

Solar "15" 220 34


NAME
Oil -158 -5 -12 -63 -12
Som Sinha
"40" 1025 187
28 Rest o
Data list is used to drive the black and Gas Rest of World
NER

white chart, whichGasis then used as a


template for the color chart. Bars and lines
Electricity generation by region highlights diversity
Net delivered electricity, thousand TWh
10

8 Learn more
6 Interested in knowing
more about how electricity
4
Other renewables
powers economic growth
Wind/Solar

2
Nuclear
and development?
Gas

Coal
0 Oil
15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40
United States Europe China India Other Middle Africa Rest

Visit us at:
Asia Pacific East of World

exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
see our57
60 percent of the rise in electricity demand will come from Asia Pacific
and CSP# infographic
Mix of electricity generation sources will vary significantly by region
Why the world needs more watts
VERSION
AS OF

The U.S. and Europe lead shift from coal, with significant gains in gas, wind and solar Nov. 06, 2016
Chinas coal share of power generation falls; looks to nuclear, renewables and gas to APPROVED BY

meet electricity growth Som Sinha


Middle East, Africa and Rest of World draw on gas when domestically available
57 17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

Coal-fired electricity use grows in Asia Pacific; Indias use of coal for electricity more
than doubles from 2015-2040
ElecDmndByReg.ai
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA
CHART
OWNER

NAME
DATA ON SECOND PAGE Som Sinha
Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe to energyfactor.com Follow @exxonmobil 29
Data list is used to drive the black and
NER

white chart, which is then used as a


template for the color chart. Bars and lines
03

Emissions
The challenge of providing the energy supplies that power the global
economy is coupled with the need to do so in ways that reduce
energy-related greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the risk of
climate change.

The next quarter century will witness a number of developments driven by technology advances and policy decisions
that will substantially influence the world's greenhouse gas emissions profile.

As policymakers develop mechanisms to meet the goals set forth in the 2015 Paris climate agreement, the research
and development efforts of the worlds scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs will propel energys evolution.
Advances will promote not only new energy supply options and greater energy efficiency, but also emerging
opportunities for technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS).

Between 2015 and 2040, innovation in the transportation sector will deliver significant increases in fuel economy for
cars and commercial vehicles. We will also see a shift in the types of energy used for electricity generation, led by
natural gas and renewables. Coals share of global power generation has been falling recently and will continue to
drop, with gains being made by less carbon-intensive energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear, wind and solar.

The initial result will be a continued slowdown in the growth of global carbon dioxide emissions. Global energy-related
CO2 emissions are likely to peak during the 2030s and begin to decline all the more remarkable considering the fact
that global GDP is expected to double in the period from 2015 to 2040.

30
Emissions projections

Average U.S. CO abatement costs clarify best options

Improved
gasoline vehicles

Gas into power

Nuclear

Hybrid vehicles

Carbon capture
and storage
CO2 Change in capital & operating costs
Wind
abatement
Solar
cost Change in CO2 emissions
Electric cars

Progress on energy and climate goals requires practical solutions that are reliable,
50 0 100 200 700 800 900 affordable and cost-effective
Range of 2016 costs to eliminate one tonne of CO (dollars per tonne)
Many opportunities exist to reduce CO2 emissions, and since the costs vary widely
and can be substantial, societies should adopt policies targeting CO2 emissions that
will minimize the related costs that are ultimately borne by consumers and taxpayers
The best policy options to achieve that goal will be market-based, predictable,
Many options exist to reduce CO2 emissions, each with different costs as of 2016
Improving fuel economy of conventional vehicles is the lowest cost option VERSION breakthroughs to address climate change risks 65
transparent and globally applicable to promote innovation and technology
CSP#
AS OF
Switching to natural gas (vs. coal) in power generation also offers low-cost results Properly designed market-based policies, such as a revenue-neutral carbon tax, are
DATA AS OF 10/31/2016 Nov.
most 18,
likely 2016
to fully capitalize on the ability and interests of individuals and businesses
Solar energy is about double the cost of wind for curbing emissions (vs. coal) in U.S. across society to find, develop and pursue the most cost-effective options to
Low High APPROVED BY
reduce emissions
Electric cars are ImprGas
a high-cost option,
-35upward of $700/tonne-41
of CO2 abated Todd Onderdonk
Gas intoPwr 10 34 According to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, putting a transparent and
reliable price on CO2 emissions would be societys most cost-effective approach
65 17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

Nuclear 69 75
to reduce emissions
Hybrid 83 89 CO2AbatementCosts.ai
Sequestration 72 155
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA
Wind 55 159
Solar 116 236
CHART
OWNER

NAME
Electric Cars 725 1000
Visit exxonmobil.com
Todd Onderdonk
Subscribe to energyfactor.com Follow @exxonmobil 31
Data list is used to drive the black and
R
03
Emissions
Emissions projections

Comparison of the U.S. and Germany CO intensity gains favor the U.S.
Share of electricity generation Grams CO/kWh generation
100 Oil 600
Other renewables

80 Wind/Solar
500
Learn more
60
Nuclear
400
Want to learn more about
Gas 300 how technology is helping
to reduce greenhouse
40
200

20
Coal
100
gas emissions?

0 0
2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015
United States Germany United States Germany
Source: IEA, UBA Visit us at:
Source: EIA, UBA
exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
The U.S.DATA AS OF 10/21/2016 DATA AS OFCO10/21/2016
and see our infographic
CSP# 61
and Germany illustrate different options available to reduce 2
emissions
United States
A shift in the U.S. has favored 2005
natural gas, along with growth in wind
2015 and solar 2015
2005 Technology takes on CO2
VERSION

AS OF
Coal 1927 1320 US 563 445
In contrast,
Gas Germany targeted701
greater use of wind and Germany
1256 solar while phasing
535 out nuclear
479 Nov. 14, 2016
Nuclear 725 754
As a result, from 2005 to 2015,17
Wind/Solar the CO2 intensity
220 of power generation fell more than APPROVED BY

20 percent in the
Other U.S., or more323
Renewables than twice 319
the improvement shown in Germany, where Lynne Taschner
Oil 10 percent
it fell about 125 33
61 17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

Germany 2005 2015 CO2GenShare.ai


Coal 264 246
XXA
Gas 66 50 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE

Nuclear 145 75
Wind/Solar 25 89
CHART
OWNER

NAME
Other Renewables 33 64
Lynne Taschner
Oil 9 5 2015
32
Data list is used to drive the black and
NER

600 white chart, which is then used as a


4000 600
Restraining energy-related CO emissions Energy-related CO emissions peak
Thousand BTUs per dollar of GDP, in 2010 dollars Billion tonnes
45 40
Billions of tonnes CO China
40 2 1990
Middle East
6
Africa
35 10 Latin America
30
Russia/Caspian
Improving efficiency

30 18
40000
25 Other Asia Pacific M
Non-OECD 20 35000
20 excluding China
Af
90
30000
15
15 China
15 La
10 10 25000
OECD
40
90 Europe
5 15
40 20000 Ru
40
North America
0
0 15000
0 20 40 60 80 As
CO intensity in tonnes CO per billion BTUs 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
10000
Reducing CO intensity Eu
5000

63
N
Improving efficiency and decreasing the CO2 intensity of energy CSP#
Global CO2 emissions rose close to 40 percent from 2000 to000
2015,05 10 15 20 25 303540
use help stem emissions as populations and GDP grow despite a modest decline in OECD nations
VERSION
AS OF

Chinas GDP rose about 1,000 percent from 1990-2015 but energy
Nov. 14, 2016
From 2015 to 2040, global CO2 emissions are likely to peak and
efficiency gains kept a rise in CO2 emissions to about 300 percent; DATA
gradually AS OF
decline,
APPROVED BY 10/21/2016
ending about 10 percent above the level in 2015 DATA AS OF 10/21/2016
efficiency gains and lower CO2 intensity will help emissions peak around 2030 ToddEurope
NorthAm Onderdonk AP Rus/Casp LatAm Africa MidEast China
Emissions
"00" are6653
declining
4350 in the
7483 OECD;
2308will drop921about
87820 percent
1125 from 2015-2040
"00" 14259
OECD nations improved efficiency and CO2 intensity from 1990 6579 4392 7677 2316 922 915 1161 14348
636551
17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

China contributed about


4388 60 percent
8060 of the growth
2332 925 in emissions
924 1208 from 2000-2015;14568
to 2015, keeping emissions relatively flat; accelerating gains will
CO2Emissions.ai
its emissions peak
6641 about
4513 2030,
8816 higher
2436than North
928 America
971 and Europe combined15429
1260
help reduce emissions 20 percent by 2040 6732 4542 9798 2439 982 1023 1329 16305
XXA
Emissions
"05" outside
6798 North
IN ENERGY America,
OUTLOOK
4538 ON PAGE Europe
10574 2448 and
1022 China
1065rise about
1409 35 percent"05"
from 17020
CO2 emissions in other non-OECD nations rose about 50 percent from 6710 4602 11288 2506
2015-2040, with the share of global emissions1053reaching
1069 501484percent by 2040 17609
1990 to 2015, and are likely to increase 50 percent by 2040 despite a 6856 4568 11968 2525 1087 1100 1556 18164
CHART
OWNER

NAME

40 percent gain in efficiency across these emerging economies 6693 Onderdonk


Todd 4491 12028 2559 1163 1160 1667 17946
6262 4168 12629 2377 1150 1139 1729 17649
"10" Data list
6463 4297 13516
is used to drive the black and
2491 1236 1181 1802 "10" 18566
Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe tois energyfactor.com Follow
1861 @exxonmobil 33
: OWNER

white 6353
chart, which4168 then14447
used as a 2644 1265 1175 19108
6184 4129 15008 2676
template for the color chart. Bars and lines
are cut and pasted from the black and
1322 1236 1942 19237
white 6316
template and4011 15551
are highly accurate. 2626 1356 1251 1972 19626
04

Supply
What resources will be available to meet the worlds
increasing demand for more energy?

Recent technology advancements have provided an abundance of supply and unprecedented range of energy
choices from the oil and natural gas in Americas shale regions to the deepwater fields off the African coast;
from new nuclear reactors in China to wind turbines and solar arrays in nations around the world.

The global energy supply mix will shift over the next two-and-a-half decades. Societys push for lower-emission
energy sources will drive substantial increases for nuclear power as well as renewables such as wind and solar.
By 2040 nuclear and all renewables will be approaching 25 percent of global energy supplies.

Oil will remain an essential energy source for transportation and chemicals production. Natural gas, increasingly
used for power generation as utilities look to switch to lower-emissions fuels, will expand its share of the energy
mix. Gas will overtake coal as the worlds second-largest fuel within a decade.

The world has been undergoing an energy supply revolution in recent years, with significant oil and natural gas
production increases from American shale fields rewriting the narrative of scarcity and limits that has prevailed since
the 1970s. North America, which has been an oil importer for decades, is on pace to become a net exporter of oil
in just a few years.

These advances have stimulated a new "age of abundance" in energy supplies, which is good news for billions of
people seeking to advance their standards of living.

34
Supply projections

Energy supply evolves to meet diverse demand


Quadrillion BTUs
250

200

150

100

50

0
2015 2025 2040 2015 2025 2040 2015 2025 2040 2015 2025 2040 2015 2025 2040 2015 2025 2040 2015 2025 2040
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Wind/ Hydro/Geo
Solar/Biofuels

DATA AS OF 10/04/2016
Oil remains the primary fuel, essential in transportation and chemicals
Gas demand rises the most, largely to help meet increasing needs for
Oilelectricity
ex bio and to190
"15" support rising industrial demand
VERSION
CSP# 66
AS OF
"25" 2040
Oil and gas continue to supply about 55 percent of the worlds energy needs through 208
Nov. 17, 2016
"40" 224
Coals share falls as the OECD and China turn to lower emission fuels APPROVED BY

GAS "15" 124 Lynne Taschner


Nuclear demand almost doubles 2015-2040 led by China
"25" 150
Wind, solar and biofuels average combined growth of about 5 percent per year,"40"
reaching
178about 4 percent of global energy
66 17XOM EO- demand
FILE INFO

EnergySupply.ai
COAL "15" 145
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA
"25" 150
"40" 143
CHART
OWNER

NAME

NUCLEAR "15" 27 Lynne Taschner


Visit exxonmobil.com
"25" 35 Subscribe to energyfactor.com Follow @exxonmobil 35
250 Data list is used to drive the black and
NER

"40" 51 white chart, which is then used as a


template for the color chart. Bars and lines
04
Supply
Liquids projections

Liquids demand dominated by transportation and chemicals


MBDOE
50

Liquids 40
Other

30 Chemicals
The abundance of supply and a broad range of energy
choices have been enabled by technological innovation.
Supplies of oil and other liquid fuels are projected to 20
grow 20 percent over the next quarter century, essentially
matching expected growth in demand. The gains largely
Transportation
will come from technology-enabled sources, such as tight 10
oil, deepwater and oil sands. As energy markets shift,
North America will become a net exporter as tight oil
and NGL production grows. 0
15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40
North Latin Africa Europe Russia/ Middle Asia
America America Caspian East Pacific

Global liquids demand grows about 20 percent from 2015 to 2040


DATA AS OF 10/04/2016
Demand grows in commercial transportation and chemicals

VERSION
North America and Europe liquids demand declines with advances Trans Chem Othr
in light-duty vehicle efficiency "15" 16 2.5 4.6
50
OTHER "NorthAm" "25" 16.1 3.5 4.3
Africa has the fastest growth rates as emerging economies advance
"40" 14.5 4.2 4
Asia Pacific accounts for about 60 percent of the increase in global

FILE INFO
40 CHEM
liquids demand to 2040, and surpasses the combined liquids demand "15" 3.9 0.4 2.7
of North America and Europe around 2025 "LatinAm" "25" 4.6 0.5 2.9
TRANSPORTATION
"40" 5.5 0.8 3.3
30

"15" 2.5 0 1.6

CHART
"Africa" "25" 3.5 0.2 2.4
36 20
"40" 5.1 0.5 3.7

NER
Natural gas projections

Liquids supply highlights technology gains Liquids supply highlights regional diversity
MBDOE MBDOE
120 45 Conventional crude and condensate
Biofuels Deepwater
Other Oil sands
100 Tight oil
NGLs
NGLs
Other
80 Tight oil Demand
30
Oil sands Net exports
Deepwater Net imports
60

New conventional
40 crude and condensate
15
development

20
Developed conventional
crude and condensate

0 0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40
North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific

DATA AS OF 10/04/2016
ConvC+C Undev Dpwtr VHO TightOil TtlNGL Other Biofuels (Data

69
Global liquids production rises to meet demand growth 0 Liquids trade459
balances shift as supply and demand evolve
"2000" 66271
Technology-enabled NGLs, tight oil, deepwater and
66004 oil sands
0 1926
0 1754 762
915
6125 1825
1 North America
6299 1877 476 swings
CSP#
to a net exporter as shale growth continues
VERSION AS OF

VERSION
AS OF
see strong gains 64796 0 2381 1174 3 6255 1974 495
Latin America exportsNov.
increase
09,from added deepwater, oil sands and tight oil supplies
2016 Nov. 0
67337 0 2373 1293 7 6358 2026 524
Tight oil plus NGLs exceed 25 percent of global liquids 45000
69672 0 2538 1534 17 Middle East, Russia/Caspian
6726 2154 525 APPROVEDremain
BY major oil exporters to 2040, but Africa shifts APPROVED B
supply in 2040
"2005" 69986 0 2966 1645 38 to
6920an importer
2243 603 Mathieu Agee Biofuels Mat
Continued investment in conventional oil is needed69490to mitigate
0 3769 1860 62 Europe
7010 2288 665
remains a net oil importer as its demand and production decline
69 17XOM EO- 70 17X
FILE INFO

FILE INFO
decline in existing fields and meet demand for liquid
68876fuels0 4215 1812 103 7162 2336 852 Other
Asia Pacific imports increase to 80 percent of oil demand in 2040
68964 0 4612 1849 248 7187 2402
30000
1088 LiqSplyByType.ai LiqTrad
66579 0 5322 2113 384 7474 2459 1196 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA Total NGL IN ENER
120000 "2010" 67767 0 5415 2237 647 8025 2644 1361
Biofuels
67726 0 5028 2377 1220 8662 2667 1395 Tight Oil
CHART
OWNER

CHART
OWNER
NAME NAME

100000 67753 0 5313 2516 2046 9006 2803 1406 Mathieu Agee Mathie
Other 66726 0 Visit exxonmobil.com
5711 2667 3016 9209 2929 1536 Subscribe to energyfactor.com Follow @exxonmobil 37
VHO
15000 Data list is used to drive the black and Data list is use
66472 70 5963 2915 4229 9852 2960 1696
NER

NER
white chart, which is then used as a white chart, w
04
Supply
Liquids projections

Liquids demand & supply warrant investment Technology expands recoverable resources
MBDOE Crude & condensatetrillion barrels
120 6

100 Liquids supply growth 5


to meet IEA New Policies
Scenario demand
80 4

Remaining resource
60 Natural decline 3
in the absence Additional liquids
of further to keep supply constant
investment
40 2

20 1
Cumulative production
Supply absent
further investment
0 0
2015 2040 1981 2000 2015
Source: IEA, excludes biofuels Source: USGS, IEA

Source: IEA, excludes biofuels Source: USGS, IEA

71
Upward of $450 billion a year of upstream oil investment Global oil resources are abundant
is needed to meet demand CSP#
Less than one-quarter of global oil resources have
VERSION

AS OF
Without further investment, liquids supply would been produced
decline steeply
Nov. 16, 2016
DATA AS OF 11/03/2016
Remaining oil resources can provide 150 years of supply
APPROVED BY Cum C+C Prod (GBO) Remaining C+C (GBO)
Over 80 percent of new liquids supply needed to offset at current demand
Chad Harris"1981" 445 1274
natural decline DATA AS OF 11/16/2016
Oil resource estimates
"2000" keep rising as technology advances
862 2729
2015 2040 2040
71 17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

Supply absent further investment 94.4 16.4 16.4 "2015" 1269


Technology has added tight oil, deepwater and oil sands resources 4453
Added liquids to keep supply constant 78.0 LiqSupplyDmnd.ai
Supply growth to meet IEA NPS demand 9.1 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA

6000
CHART
OWNER

NAME
Remaining C+C (GBO)
Chad Harris
38 5000
Data list is used to drive the black and Cum C+C Prod (GBO)
NER

white chart, which is then used as a


template for the color chart. Bars and lines
Natural gas projections

Regional gas demand highlights growth & end-use versatility


BCFD
150
Transportation

Natural gas 125


Residential/
Commercial

100

Industrial
As technology unlocks resources previously considered too
75
difficult or costly to produce, the prominence of natural
gas in the global energy mix will continue to grow over the
period from 2015 to 2040. Total worldwide gas demand is 50
projected to grow by about 45 percent, with growth seen
in every sector, particularly power generation. Natural gas Electricity
25
production from North America will continue to grow, generation

helping establish the region as a natural gas exporter.


0
15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40
. North Latin Africa Europe Russia/ Middle Asia
America America Caspian East Pacific

DATA from
Global gas demand grows by about 45 percent AS OF 10/05/2016
2015 to 2040
Gas demand grows in all major sectors led by electricityElect Ind Res/Com
generation Trans
NorthAm "15" 34.6 35.3 24.3 0.1
"25" 39.6
North America shows strong growth as energy choices 42.8
shift to lower 24.3 1.1
"40" 46.4 45.7 23.3 3.3
carbon fuels
Africa gas demand more than doubles as LatAn "15" increase
local supplies 6 9.7
and 1.6 0.6
"25" 7.4 10.9 2 0.7
economies develop "40" 12.1 15.3 2.7 1.2
Asia Pacific gas demand rises the most accounting
Africa
for 45 percent
"15" 6 7.7 1.1 0
of global growth "25" 9.9 9 1.6 0.1
"40" 17.4 12.3 2.2 0.2

Europe "15" 14.3 15.7 17.9 0.2


"25" 17.3 16.6 18.6 0.7
"40" 19.9 17.1 17.9 1.6
Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe to energyfactor.com Follow @exxonmobil 39
Casp/Russ"15" 33.8 21.2 7.9 0.1
"25" 35.4 22.6 7.6 0.1
04
Supply
Natural gas projections

Gas supply highlights regional diversity


BCFD
150 Conventional production
Unconventional production
Demand
125 Net exports
Net imports

100

75

50

25

0
15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40
North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific

(Data on second page)

76
Gas trade balances shift as supply and demand evolve
North America becomes a natural gas exporter as unconventional production grows
CSP#
VERSION

AS OF

Russia/Caspian expands lead as top gas exporter Nov. 09, 2016


Asia Pacific gas production and imports grow to meet rapidly rising demand APPROVED BY

Asia Pacific becomes the largest importer as gas demand doubles by 2040 Mathieu Agee

By 2040, unconventional gas will account for about one-third of gas production 76 17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

GasTradeBalnce.ai
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA
CHART
OWNER

NAME
Mathieu Agee
40 150
Data list is used to drive the black and
NER

white chart, which is then used as a


Europe gas imports to grow Asia Pacific demand drives LNG trade LNG exports expand and diversify
BCFD BCFD BCFD
150 150 30

125 125 25

LNG
100 100 20

75 75 15
Pipeline

50 50 10
LNG

Local
25 Pipeline 25 production 5

Local
production
0 0 0
15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40 15 25 40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
North Asia Africa Middle Russia Other
America Pacific East

DATA AS OF 10/26/2016 DATA AS OF 10/26/2016


LocalProd PL LNG as demand grows
77
Local Prod PL LNG
23.4677A
Europe and Asia Pacific account for about 90 percent of global imports LNG export supplies diversify

"00" 29.95
Europe liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline imports rise 31.36
15.38
150 3.44
LNG Trade
"00" CSP# 0 9.99 CSP#
Significant new exports expected from the United States,
15.04 3.43 24.73 0 10.23

VERSION
AS OF
VERSION
AS OF
to offset production decline 31.97 14.34 3.95 Canada,
26.53 Australia
0 and East Africa
10.5
125 Nov. 09, 2016 Nov. 09, 2016
32.53
Asia Pacific accounts for over two-thirds of global LNG growth 15.92 4.25 Inter-regional PL 27.95America
North 0 becomes 11.42
the largest LNGAPPROVED
exporter
32.18 17.93 4.05 APPROVED BY 29.92 0 11.88 BY
from growth in unconventional gas production Mathieu Agee
Asia Pacific LNG is partly sourced from within the region
"05" 31.68 18.91 5 Mathieu
"05" Agee 31.68 0 12.47
100
Local Production
LNG 33.6 will remain
0 highly competitive
13.83 due to abundant DAT
Global LNG trade rises more than 2.5 times from 2015 to 2040 30.18 19.32 6.04
North
77A 17XOMgas EO- 77B 17XOM EO-

FILE INFO
FILE INFO

30.76 19.21 5.48 resources


35.36 0 and many15.42
aspiring exporters
150 31.19 19.7 5.79 36.36 30 0 16.32
LNG Trade
75
EuroGasSupplyBySrc.ai Low-cost LNG supply sources will be advantaged EuroGasSupplyBySrc.a
in LNG Exp
27.81 17.84 7.09 39.23 0 15.68
IN ENERGY OUTLOOK the XXA
ONmarketplace
PAGE IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA
"10" 30.21 18.24 8.88 "10" 42.38 0.34 18.27 AsiaP
125 25
Inter-regional PL 25.62 50
18.37 8.91 43.21 1.38 20.98

CHART
OWNER
CHART
OWNER

NAME
27.21 17.95 6.51 NAME
42.75 2.21 22.92
Mathieu Agee 43.95 2.69 24.41
Mathieu Agee
100 27 19.4 4.65
Local Production Visit exxonmobil.com
25 Subscribe to energyfactor.com 20 Follow @exxonmobil 41 Africa
23.79 17.85 4.45 45.59 2.95 24.69
Data list is used to drive the black and Data list is used to drive the black and

NER
ER

"15" 23.99 19.03 5.15 "15"is then used


white chart, which 45.93
as a 2.89 24.28 white chart, which is then used as a
04
Supply
Natural gas projections

Technology expands recoverable resources


Natural gasthousand TCF
40

30
Learn more
Want to learn more
20
Remaining resource
about the important
role of natural gas?
10

Cumulative production
0
2000 2015
Visit us at:
Source: USGS, IEA exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
Source: USGS, IEA
and see our infographic
Natural gas is an energy
CSP# 79
Global natural gas resources are abundant
Less than 15 percent of global gas resources game-changer
VERSION

AS OF
have been produced
DATA AS OF 10/05/2016 Nov. 14, 2016
Remaining gas resources can provide more
Cum Gas Prod (TCF) Remaining C+C (TCF) APPROVED BY
than 200 years of supply at current demand
"2000" 2620 13649 Mathieu Agee
Gas resource estimates
"2015" keep rising as technology
4309 27581
79 17XOM EO-
FILE INFO

unlocks resources previously considered too


difficult or costly to produce NatGasResrces.ai
Over 40 percent of the remaining gas resource is from IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA
40000
unconventional sources such as tight and shale gas
Remaining C+C (TCF)
CHART
OWNER

NAME
Mathieu Agee
42 Cum Gas Prod (TCF)
30000 Data list is used to drive the black and
NER

white chart, which is then used as a


05

Energy matters
With more people using energy to improve their lives, we estimate that global
energy demand will be about 25 percent higher in 2040 than it was in 2015.

Meeting energy demand safely, reliably and affordably while also minimizing risks and environmental impacts
will require advanced technology and expanded trade and investment. It will require innovation. And it also will
require smart, practical energy choices by governments, individuals and businesses.
Understanding the factors that drive the worlds energy needs and likely choices to meet those needs is the
mission of the Outlook. By sharing the Outlook with the public, we hope to broaden that understanding among
individuals, businesses and governments. Energy matters to everyone, and we all play a role in shaping its future.

43
Data
Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs, unless otherwise noted)
Average annual change % change Share of total
2015 2025 2015 2015 2025 2015
Regions 2000 2010 2015 2025 2040 2025 2040 2040 2025 2040 2040 2015 2025 2040
World 416 527 564 634 700 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% 12% 11% 24% 100% 100% 100%
OECD 225 230 224 225 219 0.0% -0.2% -0.1% 0% -3% -3% 40% 36% 31%
Non-OECD 191 298 339 408 482 1.9% 1.1% 1.4% 20% 18% 42% 60% 64% 69%
Africa 22 30 34 43 60 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 27% 40% 78% 6% 7% 9%
Asia Pacific 126 205 234 281 322 1.8% 0.9% 1.3% 20% 15% 38% 42% 44% 46%
China 47 102 120 143 153 1.7% 0.5% 1.0% 19% 7% 27% 21% 23% 22%
India 18 28 34 48 65 3.5% 2.0% 2.6% 41% 35% 91% 6% 8% 9%
Europe 79 81 76 74 70 -0.2% -0.5% -0.4% -2% -7% -9% 14% 12% 10%
European Union 72 73 68 65 60 -0.4% -0.6% -0.5% -4% -9% -12% 12% 10% 9%
Latin America 20 27 29 33 41 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% 14% 25% 42% 5% 5% 6%
Middle East 18 30 35 42 49 1.9% 1.1% 1.4% 21% 17% 41% 6% 7% 7%
North America 114 113 113 116 115 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 3% -1% 2% 20% 18% 16%
United States 96 93 93 94 91 0.1% -0.2% -0.1% 1% -3% -2% 16% 15% 13%
Russia/Caspian 38 43 43 45 43 0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 4% -4% 0% 8% 7% 6%
Energy by type - World
Primary 416 527 564 634 700 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% 12% 11% 24% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 157 178 190 208 224 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 9% 8% 18% 34% 33% 32%
Gas 89 116 124 150 178 1.9% 1.1% 1.5% 21% 19% 44% 22% 24% 25%
Coal 91 138 145 150 143 0.3% -0.3% -0.1% 3% -5% -2% 26% 24% 20%
Nuclear 27 29 27 35 51 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 31% 47% 92% 5% 5% 7%
Biomass/waste 40 49 54 56 56 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 5% 0% 5% 10% 9% 8%
Hydro 9 12 13 16 18 1.7% 0.8% 1.2% 18% 14% 34% 2% 2% 3%
Other renewables 3 7 11 19 31 5.5% 3.3% 4.2% 71% 63% 179% 2% 3% 4%
End-use sectors - World
Residential and commercial
Total 99 116 120 134 147 1.1% 0.6% 0.8% 12% 10% 23% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 16 15 15 15 14 0.2% -0.4% -0.2% 2% -6% -4% 12% 11% 10%
Gas 21 24 24 27 29 1.1% 0.5% 0.8% 12% 8% 21% 20% 20% 20%
Biomass/waste 29 33 35 35 33 0.2% -0.5% -0.2% 2% -7% -5% 29% 26% 22%
Electricity 23 32 35 45 60 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 28% 34% 72% 29% 33% 41%
Other 10 11 11 12 11 0.4% -0.5% -0.1% 4% -7% -3% 9% 9% 7%
Transportation
Total 81 101 111 125 139 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% 13% 11% 25% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 80 96 105 116 123 1.0% 0.4% 0.7% 10% 7% 18% 94% 93% 89%
Biofuels 0 3 3 5 6 2.6% 2.3% 2.4% 30% 40% 82% 3% 4% 5%
Gas 0 1 2 3 7 7.9% 5.1% 6.2% 114% 111% 353% 1% 3% 5%
Other 1 1 1 1 2 2.4% 3.4% 3.0% 27% 65% 109% 1% 1% 2%
Industrial
Total 148 198 214 240 262 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% 12% 9% 23% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 49 56 60 68 78 1.3% 0.9% 1.1% 14% 15% 31% 28% 28% 30%
Gas 37 45 48 57 66 1.8% 0.9% 1.3% 20% 15% 37% 22% 24% 25%
Coal 27 49 52 52 45 0.0% -0.9% -0.5% 0% -12% -12% 24% 21% 17%
Electricity 22 30 35 43 52 2.0% 1.3% 1.6% 22% 22% 49% 16% 18% 20%
Other 14 17 19 20 20 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 4% 3% 6% 9% 8% 8%
Power generation - World
Primary 144 188 203 236 278 1.5% 1.1% 1.3% 17% 18% 37% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 12 10 10 9 8 -1.7% -0.8% -1.1% -16% -11% -25% 5% 4% 3%
Gas 31 46 50 62 76 2.2% 1.3% 1.7% 25% 22% 51% 25% 26% 27%
Coal 61 84 89 94 95 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 6% 0% 6% 44% 40% 34%
Nuclear 27 29 27 35 51 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 31% 47% 92% 13% 15% 18%
Hydro 9 12 13 16 18 1.7% 0.8% 1.2% 18% 14% 34% 7% 7% 6%
Wind 0 1 3 6 11 8.6% 4.0% 5.8% 128% 80% 309% 1% 3% 4%
Other renewables 4 7 10 14 19 2.9% 2.2% 2.5% 33% 38% 84% 5% 6% 7%
Electricity demand (terawatt hours)
World 13216 18574 20787 26090 33551 2.3% 1.7% 1.9% 26% 29% 61% 100% 100% 100%
OECD 8601 9680 9614 10443 11432 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 9% 9% 19% 46% 40% 34%
Non-OECD 4615 8894 11174 15647 22119 3.4% 2.3% 2.8% 40% 41% 98% 54% 60% 66%

44
Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs)
Average annual change % change Share of total
OECD 2015 2025 2015 2015 2025 2015
Energy by type 2000 2010 2015 2025 2040 2025 2040 2040 2025 2040 2040 2015 2025 2040
Primary 225 230 224 225 219 0.0% -0.2% -0.1% 0% -3% -3% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 98 92 90 86 78 -0.4% -0.7% -0.6% -4% -9% -13% 40% 38% 36%
Gas 47 54 56 63 69 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% 13% 9% 23% 25% 28% 32%
Coal 43 42 37 28 18 -2.5% -3.2% -2.9% -22% -38% -52% 16% 13% 8%
Nuclear 23 24 20 22 24 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 9% 9% 19% 9% 10% 11%
Biomass/waste 7 9 10 10 10 0.2% -0.4% -0.2% 2% -6% -4% 4% 5% 4%
Hydro 5 5 5 5 5 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 7% 2% 9% 2% 2% 2%
Other renewables 2 4 6 10 15 4.5% 2.7% 3.4% 55% 49% 132% 3% 4% 7%
End-use sectors
Residential and commercial
Total 47 51 48 48 47 0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 1% -2% 0% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 11 8 6 5 3 -2.3% -3.0% -2.7% -21% -36% -50% 13% 10% 6%
Gas 16 17 16 16 16 0.2% -0.2% -0.1% 2% -3% -2% 34% 34% 33%
Biomass/waste 2 3 3 3 2 -0.3% -1.0% -0.7% -3% -13% -16% 6% 6% 5%
Electricity 17 21 20 22 24 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 8% 9% 18% 43% 46% 51%
Other 2 3 2 2 2 0.2% -0.5% -0.2% 2% -7% -5% 5% 5% 4%
Transportation
Total 55 58 58 57 53 -0.2% -0.5% -0.3% -2% -7% -8% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 55 55 55 53 48 -0.4% -0.8% -0.6% -4% -11% -14% 95% 94% 89%
Biofuels 0 2 2 3 3 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 15% 22% 39% 4% 4% 6%
Gas 0 0 0 1 2 17.6% 6.5% 10.8% 406% 159% 1210% 0% 1% 4%
Other 0 0 0 0 1 0.7% 3.3% 2.3% 7% 64% 75% 1% 1% 1%
Industrial
Total 70 67 69 72 73 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 4% 1% 5% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 28 26 27 27 27 0.2% -0.1% 0.0% 2% -1% 1% 39% 38% 37%
Gas 18 18 19 22 24 1.7% 0.5% 1.0% 19% 7% 27% 28% 31% 33%
Coal 8 7 7 5 3 -4.1% -2.8% -3.3% -34% -35% -57% 10% 6% 4%
Electricity 12 12 12 13 14 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% 9% 9% 19% 17% 18% 20%
Other 4 4 4 5 4 0.1% -0.3% -0.1% 1% -4% -3% 6% 6% 6%
Power generation
Primary 84 90 85 86 86 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1% 0% 1% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 5 3 2 1 1 -7.1% -3.0% -4.7% -52% -37% -70% 3% 1% 1%
Gas 13 20 21 24 27 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 13% 15% 30% 25% 28% 32%
Coal 35 34 29 23 14 -2.2% -3.2% -2.8% -20% -38% -50% 34% 27% 17%
Nuclear 23 24 20 22 24 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 9% 9% 19% 24% 25% 28%
Hydro 5 5 5 5 5 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 7% 2% 9% 6% 6% 6%
Wind 0 1 2 4 6 6.9% 3.6% 4.9% 95% 70% 232% 2% 4% 7%
Other renewables 3 4 6 7 8 2.0% 1.0% 1.4% 22% 16% 43% 7% 8% 10%

General note on data tables: Rounding may lead to minor differences between totals and the sum of their individual parts.
45
Data
Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs)
Average annual change % change Share of total
Non-OECD 2015 2025 2015 2015 2025 2015
Energy by type 2000 2010 2015 2025 2040 2025 2040 2040 2025 2040 2040 2015 2025 2040
Primary 191 298 339 408 482 1.9% 1.1% 1.4% 20% 18% 42% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 59 85 100 121 145 2.0% 1.2% 1.5% 22% 20% 46% 29% 30% 30%
Gas 42 61 67 86 108 2.5% 1.5% 1.9% 28% 25% 61% 20% 21% 22%
Coal 48 96 109 122 126 1.1% 0.2% 0.6% 12% 3% 15% 32% 30% 26%
Nuclear 4 5 6 13 27 7.3% 5.1% 5.9% 101% 111% 324% 2% 3% 6%
Biomass/waste 33 40 44 46 47 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 5% 1% 7% 13% 11% 10%
Hydro 4 7 9 11 13 2.3% 1.2% 1.6% 25% 19% 48% 3% 3% 3%
Other renewables 1 3 5 9 17 6.8% 3.9% 5.0% 93% 77% 240% 1% 2% 3%
End-use sectors
Residential and commercial
Total 51 65 72 86 100 1.7% 1.0% 1.3% 19% 16% 38% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 6 7 9 10 11 1.7% 0.5% 1.0% 18% 8% 27% 12% 12% 11%
Gas 5 7 8 11 13 2.8% 1.5% 2.0% 32% 26% 66% 11% 12% 13%
Biomass/waste 27 30 32 33 30 0.2% -0.4% -0.2% 2% -6% -4% 44% 38% 31%
Electricity 6 11 14 23 36 4.6% 3.1% 3.7% 57% 58% 148% 20% 26% 36%
Other 8 9 9 9 9 0.4% -0.5% -0.1% 4% -7% -3% 13% 11% 9%
Transportation
Total 26 43 53 68 86 2.5% 1.6% 2.0% 29% 26% 62% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 25 41 49 62 76 2.4% 1.3% 1.7% 26% 22% 53% 94% 92% 88%
Biofuels 0 1 1 2 3 4.6% 3.4% 3.9% 57% 65% 159% 2% 3% 4%
Gas 0 1 1 3 5 6.2% 4.6% 5.3% 83% 97% 260% 3% 4% 6%
Other 0 1 1 1 2 3.2% 3.4% 3.3% 37% 65% 125% 1% 1% 2%
Industrial
Total 78 131 145 168 190 1.5% 0.8% 1.1% 16% 13% 31% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 21 30 33 41 51 2.1% 1.5% 1.8% 23% 25% 54% 23% 24% 27%
Gas 19 27 29 35 42 1.9% 1.2% 1.5% 20% 20% 44% 20% 21% 22%
Coal 19 42 45 47 42 0.5% -0.7% -0.2% 5% -10% -6% 31% 28% 22%
Electricity 9 19 23 30 38 2.6% 1.6% 2.0% 30% 27% 65% 16% 18% 20%
Other 10 13 15 15 16 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 5% 4% 9% 10% 9% 8%
Power generation
Primary 59 98 117 150 191 2.5% 1.6% 2.0% 28% 28% 63% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 7 7 8 8 7 -0.6% -0.5% -0.5% -6% -7% -12% 7% 5% 4%
Gas 17 26 29 38 48 2.9% 1.5% 2.1% 33% 26% 67% 25% 26% 25%
Coal 26 50 60 71 80 1.7% 0.8% 1.2% 18% 13% 34% 51% 47% 42%
Nuclear 4 5 6 13 27 7.3% 5.1% 5.9% 101% 111% 324% 5% 9% 14%
Hydro 4 7 9 11 13 2.3% 1.2% 1.6% 25% 19% 48% 7% 7% 7%
Wind 0 0 1 3 5 11.4% 4.5% 7.2% 194% 92% 466% 1% 2% 3%
Other renewables 1 3 5 7 11 3.9% 3.3% 3.5% 47% 62% 138% 4% 4% 6%

46
Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs)
Average annual change % change Share of total
2015 2025 2015 2015 2025 2015
Regions 2000 2010 2015 2025 2040 2025 2040 2040 2025 2040 2040 2015 2025 2040
AFRICA
Primary 22 30 34 43 60 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 27% 40% 78% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 5 8 9 12 19 3.7% 2.9% 3.2% 43% 54% 120% 26% 29% 32%
Gas 4 5 5 7 11 3.3% 3.0% 3.1% 39% 56% 117% 15% 17% 19%
Coal 3 4 4 5 6 1.4% 1.8% 1.6% 15% 31% 50% 12% 11% 10%
Nuclear 0 0 0 0 1 5.1% 13.6% 10.1% 64% 581% 1020% 0% 0% 2%
Biomass/waste 10 13 15 17 20 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% 15% 18% 35% 45% 40% 34%
Hydro 0 0 0 1 1 7.0% 3.4% 4.8% 97% 65% 225% 1% 2% 2%
Other renewables 0 0 0 0 1 7.5% 4.7% 5.8% 106% 100% 312% 1% 1% 1%
Demand by sector
Total end-use (including electricity) 20 26 30 37 51 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 25% 37% 72% 100% 100% 100%
Residential and commercial 9 12 14 18 23 2.1% 1.7% 1.9% 23% 30% 60% 48% 47% 45%
Transportation 3 4 5 7 10 3.2% 2.6% 2.9% 37% 47% 102% 18% 19% 21%
Industrial 7 9 10 12 17 2.0% 2.3% 2.2% 22% 41% 73% 34% 33% 34%
Memo: electricity demand 1 2 2 4 7 5.2% 4.4% 4.7% 66% 92% 219% 7% 10% 13%
Power generation fuel1 4 6 6 9 16 4.2% 3.7% 3.9% 50% 73% 160% 18% 22% 27%
ASIA PACIFIC
Primary 126 205 234 281 322 1.8% 0.9% 1.3% 20% 15% 38% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 43 57 66 77 87 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 16% 14% 33% 28% 27% 27%
Gas 12 21 25 37 50 3.9% 2.0% 2.7% 46% 34% 96% 11% 13% 15%
Coal 43 92 105 116 119 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 11% 3% 14% 45% 41% 37%
Nuclear 5 6 4 12 23 11.0% 4.4% 7.0% 184% 92% 445% 2% 4% 7%
Biomass/waste 20 23 24 25 22 0.1% -0.8% -0.4% 1% -11% -10% 10% 9% 7%
Hydro 2 4 5 7 7 2.2% 0.8% 1.3% 24% 12% 39% 2% 2% 2%
Other renewables 1 2 4 8 14 6.9% 3.8% 5.0% 95% 75% 241% 2% 3% 4%
Demand by sector
Total end-use (including electricity) 100 159 182 214 240 1.6% 0.8% 1.1% 18% 12% 32% 100% 100% 100%
Residential and commercial 33 41 46 55 62 1.8% 0.8% 1.2% 19% 13% 35% 25% 26% 26%
Transportation 18 28 34 44 55 2.5% 1.5% 1.9% 28% 24% 59% 19% 21% 23%
Industrial 49 90 101 115 123 1.3% 0.5% 0.8% 14% 7% 22% 56% 54% 51%
Memo: electricity demand 12 24 30 42 57 3.2% 2.1% 2.5% 37% 36% 87% 17% 20% 24%
Power generation fuel1 40 73 87 112 143 2.6% 1.6% 2.0% 30% 27% 65% 37% 40% 44%
EUROPE
Primary 79 81 76 74 70 -0.2% -0.5% -0.4% -2% -7% -9% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 32 30 28 26 22 -1.0% -0.9% -0.9% -9% -12% -20% 37% 34% 32%
Gas 17 20 17 18 20 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 11% 6% 17% 22% 25% 28%
Coal 14 13 12 10 4 -2.1% -5.2% -4.0% -19% -55% -64% 15% 13% 6%
Nuclear 10 10 9 8 9 -0.6% 0.7% 0.2% -6% 11% 4% 12% 11% 14%
Biomass/waste 3 5 6 6 6 1.0% -0.4% 0.2% 11% -6% 5% 7% 8% 8%
Hydro 2 2 2 2 2 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 3% 4% 7% 3% 3% 3%
Other renewables 0 2 3 4 6 3.9% 2.2% 2.9% 47% 39% 104% 4% 5% 8%
Demand by sector
Total end-use (including electricity) 61 63 60 59 56 -0.2% -0.4% -0.3% -2% -6% -7% 100% 100% 100%
Residential and commercial 18 21 19 19 18 0.1% -0.4% -0.2% 1% -6% -5% 32% 33% 32%
Transportation 17 19 18 17 17 -0.4% -0.3% -0.4% -4% -5% -9% 30% 30% 30%
Industrial 25 24 23 22 21 -0.2% -0.4% -0.3% -2% -6% -8% 38% 38% 38%
Memo: electricity demand 10 12 11 12 13 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 9% 7% 17% 19% 21% 24%
Power generation fuel1 29 32 30 30 29 0.1% -0.3% -0.1% 1% -4% -3% 39% 40% 42%

Share based on total primary energy


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47
Data
Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs)
Average annual change % change Share of total
2015 2025 2015 2015 2025 2015
Regions 2000 2010 2015 2025 2040 2025 2040 2040 2025 2040 2040 2015 2025 2040
LATIN AMERICA
Primary 20 27 29 33 41 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% 14% 25% 42% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 10 12 13 15 17 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 12% 15% 29% 46% 45% 42%
Gas 4 6 6 7 11 1.6% 2.7% 2.3% 18% 49% 75% 21% 22% 26%
Coal 1 1 1 1 2 1.9% 1.2% 1.5% 20% 20% 44% 4% 4% 4%
Nuclear 0 0 0 0 0 4.8% 1.7% 3.0% 60% 30% 108% 1% 1% 1%
Biomass/waste 3 4 5 5 5 -0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -4% 3% -1% 16% 14% 11%
Hydro 2 2 2 3 3 1.8% 1.4% 1.5% 19% 23% 46% 8% 8% 8%
Other renewables 0 1 1 2 3 5.6% 3.5% 4.3% 73% 67% 189% 4% 6% 8%
Demand by sector
Total end-use (including electricity) 18 23 25 29 36 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 15% 24% 43% 100% 100% 100%
Residential and commercial 3 4 5 5 6 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 14% 19% 36% 18% 18% 17%
Transportation 5 7 8 10 12 1.7% 1.3% 1.4% 19% 21% 43% 32% 33% 32%
Industrial 9 12 13 14 18 1.2% 1.7% 1.5% 13% 29% 46% 50% 49% 51%
Memo: electricity demand 2 3 4 5 7 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 26% 43% 80% 14% 16% 18%
Power generation fuel1 4 6 7 9 12 1.6% 2.0% 1.9% 18% 35% 59% 26% 26% 29%
MIDDLE EAST
Primary 18 30 35 42 49 1.9% 1.1% 1.4% 21% 17% 41% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 11 16 18 20 22 1.3% 0.6% 0.9% 14% 10% 26% 51% 48% 45%
Gas 7 13 16 21 24 2.3% 1.1% 1.6% 26% 19% 49% 47% 49% 50%
Coal 0 0 0 0 0 -4.8% -4.6% -4.7% -39% -51% -70% 1% 1% 0%
Nuclear 0 0 0 0 1 22.6% 7.5% 13.3% 667% 194% 2156% 0% 1% 3%
Biomass/waste 0 0 0 0 0 6.5% 6.1% 6.3% 88% 145% 361% 0% 0% 0%
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 25% 38% 72% 0% 0% 0%
Other renewables 0 0 0 0 1 8.6% 5.9% 7.0% 127% 137% 439% 0% 1% 1%
Demand by sector
Total end-use (including electricity) 14 23 27 33 39 1.9% 1.1% 1.4% 21% 18% 43% 100% 100% 100%
Residential and commercial 3 4 5 6 7 2.0% 1.4% 1.6% 22% 23% 49% 18% 18% 19%
Transportation 4 7 8 9 10 1.3% 0.9% 1.0% 14% 14% 30% 28% 27% 26%
Industrial 7 12 15 18 21 2.2% 1.2% 1.6% 24% 19% 48% 53% 55% 55%
Memo: electricity demand 1 3 3 5 6 3.8% 2.2% 2.8% 46% 38% 102% 12% 14% 17%
Power generation fuel1 5 9 11 14 17 2.5% 1.3% 1.8% 28% 21% 55% 31% 33% 34%
NORTH AMERICA
Primary 114 113 113 116 115 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 3% -1% 2% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 48 46 46 47 44 0.3% -0.4% -0.1% 3% -6% -4% 41% 41% 39%
Gas 26 28 32 37 40 1.3% 0.7% 0.9% 14% 10% 26% 28% 32% 35%
Coal 23 21 16 12 7 -2.9% -3.6% -3.3% -26% -42% -57% 14% 10% 6%
Nuclear 9 10 10 10 11 -0.2% 0.7% 0.3% -2% 11% 9% 9% 8% 9%
Biomass/waste 4 3 3 3 3 -0.7% -0.6% -0.6% -6% -9% -15% 3% 3% 3%
Hydro 2 2 2 2 3 1.0% 0.1% 0.4% 10% 1% 11% 2% 2% 2%
Other renewables 1 2 3 5 7 4.7% 2.9% 3.6% 58% 53% 141% 3% 4% 6%
Demand by sector
Total end-use (including electricity) 86 86 88 92 93 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 5% 1% 6% 100% 100% 100%
Residential and commercial 23 23 22 23 23 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1% 1% 2% 25% 24% 25%
Transportation 31 32 33 33 31 0.1% -0.5% -0.2% 1% -7% -6% 37% 36% 33%
Industrial 33 30 32 36 39 1.2% 0.5% 0.7% 12% 7% 21% 37% 40% 42%
Memo: electricity demand 15 16 16 17 19 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 7% 10% 18% 18% 19% 20%
Power generation fuel1 42 43 42 41 41 -0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -1% 1% -1% 37% 35% 36%

Share based on total primary energy


1

48
Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs)
Average annual change % change Share of total
2015 2025 2015 2015 2025 2015
Regions 2000 2010 2015 2025 2040 2025 2040 2040 2025 2040 2040 2015 2025 2040
RUSSIA/CASPIAN
Primary 38 43 43 45 43 0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 4% -4% 0% 100% 100% 100%
Oil 8 9 10 11 11 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 8% 0% 8% 24% 25% 25%
Gas 20 23 22 23 22 0.4% -0.3% 0.0% 4% -5% -1% 51% 51% 50%
Coal 7 7 7 6 5 -1.0% -1.7% -1.4% -9% -23% -31% 16% 14% 11%
Nuclear 2 3 3 3 4 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 14% 23% 41% 7% 8% 10%
Biomass/waste 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% -0.6% -0.3% 0% -8% -8% 1% 1% 1%
Hydro 1 1 1 1 1 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 6% 4% 11% 2% 2% 2%
Other renewables 0 0 0 0 0 7.1% 5.0% 5.8% 98% 107% 310% 0% 0% 0%
Demand by sector
Total end-use (including electricity) 29 33 33 35 34 0.5% -0.1% 0.1% 5% -2% 3% 100% 100% 100%
Residential and commercial 9 9 9 8 8 -0.2% -0.7% -0.5% -2% -10% -12% 26% 24% 22%
Transportation 3 4 4 5 5 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 5% 3% 8% 13% 13% 14%
Industrial 17 20 20 22 21 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 8% 0% 8% 60% 62% 64%
Memo: electricity demand 3 4 4 5 6 1.7% 0.9% 1.2% 19% 14% 36% 13% 14% 17%
Power generation fuel1 19 20 20 21 20 0.3% -0.4% -0.1% 3% -5% -3% 47% 47% 46%
GDP by region (2010$, trillions)
World 50 66 75 99 150 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 33% 51% 101% 100% 100% 100%
OECD 38 44 48 58 77 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 21% 32% 61% 64% 59% 51%
Non-OECD 12 21 27 41 73 4.5% 3.9% 4.1% 55% 78% 175% 36% 41% 49%
Africa 1 2 2 3 6 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 48% 78% 164% 3% 3% 4%
Asia Pacific 12 19 24 36 61 4.2% 3.6% 3.9% 51% 70% 157% 32% 36% 40%
China 2 6 9 15 29 5.8% 4.2% 4.8% 75% 86% 225% 12% 16% 19%
India 1 2 2 5 10 6.8% 5.3% 5.9% 93% 116% 316% 3% 5% 7%
Europe 16 19 20 24 31 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 20% 28% 54% 27% 24% 20%
European Union 15 17 18 21 27 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 19% 27% 50% 24% 21% 18%
Latin America 3 4 5 6 9 2.2% 2.9% 2.6% 25% 53% 91% 6% 6% 6%
Middle East 1 2 2 3 6 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 40% 62% 127% 3% 4% 4%
North America 15 18 20 24 34 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 25% 40% 76% 26% 25% 23%
United States 13 15 17 21 29 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 25% 39% 73% 22% 21% 19%
Russia/Caspian 1 2 2 3 4 2.4% 2.7% 2.5% 26% 48% 87% 3% 3% 3%
Energy intensity (thousand BTU per $ GDP)
World 8.4 8.0 7.6 6.4 4.7 -1.7% -2.1% -1.9% -16% -27% -38%
OECD 5.9 5.2 4.7 3.9 2.8 -1.9% -2.1% -2.0% -17% -27% -39%
Non-OECD 16.5 14.0 12.7 9.9 6.6 -2.5% -2.7% -2.6% -22% -34% -48%
Africa 19.0 15.2 14.6 12.5 9.9 -1.5% -1.6% -1.6% -14% -21% -32%
Asia Pacific 10.7 10.9 9.9 7.9 5.3 -2.3% -2.6% -2.5% -21% -32% -46%
China 21.0 16.8 13.7 9.3 5.4 -3.8% -3.6% -3.7% -32% -42% -61%
India 21.7 16.3 14.5 10.6 6.6 -3.0% -3.1% -3.1% -27% -38% -54%
Europe 4.9 4.3 3.8 3.1 2.3 -2.0% -2.1% -2.1% -18% -27% -41%
European Union 4.9 4.3 3.8 3.1 2.2 -2.1% -2.1% -2.1% -19% -28% -41%
Latin America 6.7 6.3 6.3 5.7 4.7 -0.9% -1.4% -1.2% -8% -19% -26%
Middle East 13.9 14.0 14.0 12.1 8.7 -1.5% -2.2% -1.9% -14% -28% -38%
North America 7.6 6.4 5.8 4.7 3.3 -2.0% -2.3% -2.2% -18% -29% -42%
United States 7.6 6.2 5.6 4.5 3.2 -2.1% -2.4% -2.2% -19% -30% -43%
Russia/Caspian 31.6 21.1 19.8 16.3 10.6 -1.9% -2.8% -2.5% -18% -35% -47%
Energy-related CO2 emissions (billion tonnes)
World 23.7 31.0 32.8 35.5 36.4 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% 8% 3% 11% 100% 100% 100%
OECD 12.9 12.8 12.2 11.4 9.8 -0.7% -1.0% -0.9% -7% -14% -20% 37% 32% 27%
Non-OECD 10.8 18.2 20.6 24.0 26.6 1.6% 0.7% 1.0% 17% 11% 30% 63% 68% 73%
Africa 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.5 2.8% 2.6% 2.7% 32% 46% 93% 4% 5% 7%
Asia Pacific 7.5 13.5 15.5 17.7 19.1 1.4% 0.5% 0.8% 15% 7% 23% 47% 50% 52%
China 3.3 7.8 8.9 9.8 9.4 1.0% -0.3% 0.2% 10% -4% 6% 27% 28% 26%
India 0.9 1.6 2.1 3.1 4.0 3.8% 1.8% 2.6% 46% 31% 91% 6% 9% 11%
Europe 4.3 4.3 3.9 3.6 2.8 -0.8% -1.6% -1.3% -8% -21% -27% 12% 10% 8%
European Union 4.0 3.9 3.4 3.1 2.4 -1.0% -1.8% -1.4% -9% -23% -31% 10% 9% 7%
Latin America 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 13% 24% 41% 4% 4% 5%
Middle East 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 1.2% 0.5% 0.8% 13% 8% 22% 6% 7% 7%
North America 6.7 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.3 -0.3% -0.9% -0.6% -3% -12% -15% 19% 17% 15%
United States 5.8 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.2 -0.5% -1.1% -0.9% -5% -15% -20% 16% 14% 12%
Russia/Caspian 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 0.0% -0.6% -0.4% 0% -9% -9% 8% 7% 6%
Share based on total primary energy
1

49
Glossary

Billion cubic feet per day (BCFD): This is used to define volumetric rates of natural gas. Natural Gas Liquids (NGL): Liquid fuels produced chiefly in association with natural
One billion cubic feet per day of natural gas is enough to meet about 2 percent of the gas. NGLs are components of natural gas that are separated from the gaseous state
natural gas used in homes around the world. Six billion cubic feet per day of natural gas into liquid form during natural gas processing. Ethane, propane, butane, isobutane and
is equivalent to about 1 million oil-equivalent barrels per day. pentane are all NGLs.

British thermal unit (BTU): A BTU is a standard unit of energy that can be used to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): A forum for
measure any type of energy source. The energy content of one gallon of gasoline is about 35 member nations from across the world that work with each other, as well as
about 125,000 BTUs. Quad refers to a quadrillion (1015) BTUs. with many more partner nations, to promote policies that will improve the economic and
social well-being of people around the world. Note: OECD data in this report reflects
Conventional Vehicle: A type of light-duty vehicle with an internal combustion engine, OECD member countries as of June 2016.
typically either a gasoline-fueled spark ignition engine or a diesel-fueled compression
ignition engine. Conventional includes vehicles with advanced technologies such as Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV): A type of light-duty vehicle that typically uses
turbocharging and mild hybrid features such as a stop start engine. an electric motor to drive the wheels. Unlike other electric vehicles, a PHEV also has a
conventional internal combustion engine that can charge its battery using petroleum
Hybrid Vehicle: A full hybrid is a type of light-duty vehicle that has a battery (usually a fuels if needed, and in some cases drive the wheels.
nickel metal hydride) and an electric motor, as well as a conventional internal combustion
engine. When brakes are applied, the energy of the moving vehicle is stored in the battery PPP: Purchasing power parity
and can be used later, thus saving fuel.
Primary energy: Includes energy in the form of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydro,
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle: A type of light-duty vehicle where hydrogen is the fuel and is geothermal, wind, solar and bioenergy sources (biofuels, municipal solid waste, traditional
stored onboard. This hydrogen is passed through a fuel cell that then provides electricity biomass). It does not include electricity or market heat, which are secondary energy types
to power the vehicle. reflecting conversion/production from primary energy sources.

Light-duty vehicle (LDV): A classification of road vehicles that includes cars, light-trucks Secondary energy: Energy types, including electricity and market heat, which are
and sport utility vehicles (SUVs). Motorcycles are not counted in the light-duty vehicle derived from primary energy sources. For example, electricity is a secondary energy type
fleet size or fuel-economy, but the fuel used in motorcycles is included in light-duty generated using natural gas, wind or other primary energy source.
transportation demand.
TCF: Trillion Cubic Feet
Liquefied natural gas (LNG): Natural gas (predominantly methane) that has been
super-chilled for conversion to liquid form for ease of transport. Watt: A unit of electrical power, equal to one joule per second. A 1-gigawatt power plant
can meet the electricity demand of more than 500,000 homes in the U.S. (Kilowatt (kW)
Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): A classification of hydrocarbon fuel including propane, = 1,000 watts; Gigawatt (GW) = 1,000,000,000 watts; Terawatt (TW) = 1012 watts).
butane and other similar hydrocarbons with low molecular weight.
Watt-hour: A unit of electrical energy. 300 terawatt hours is equivalent to about
Million oil-equivalent barrels per day (MBDOE): This term provides a standardized 1 quadrillion BTUs (Quad). (Kilowatt-hour (kWh) = 1,000 watt-hours; Gigawatt-hour
unit of measure for different types of energy sources (oil, gas, coal, etc.) based on (GWh) = 1,000,000,000 watt-hours; Terawatt-hour (TWh) = 1012 watt-hours).
energy content relative to a typical barrel of oil. One million oil-equivalent barrels per
day is enough energy to fuel about 4 percent of the light-duty vehicles on the worlds
roads today.

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The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporations internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International
Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2016. This report includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and
geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading
Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.