Confidence interval

[name of student]

[name of institute]

Confidence interval

The term confidence interval is widely used in statistics and probability. The term

actually denotes a range bound by two values, in which specified percentage of the parameter
under consideration is bound to be. For example, if you are having a data which is about the

obtained marks of a class of students and the data specifies a 95% confidence interval according

to distribution of the probability, then the confidence interval will be that interval bound by two

values (calculated according to type of probability distribution) in which there are 95% chances

of finding any value.

Null Hypothesis Significance Testing Procedure (NHSTP) is a technique in Basic and

Applied Social Psychology (BASP). In this method a null hypothesis is set first and the

probability of it being true is calculated which is designated as P. Then an alternative hypothesis

is set and Null Hypothesis is tested using conventional levels of probability i.e. 5% or 1% etc. If

the value of P comes out to be equal or lower than the conventional level, Null Hypothesis is

rejected otherwise it is accepted (Null Hypothesis Significance Testing, n.d).

However, there has been objections upon the effectiveness of NHSTP by some circles

associated with BASP. For example, one of the objections upon NHSTP is that a confidence

interval greater than 95% is too big for a research work to be designated as high quality research

work as a confidence interval larger than 95% will contain more values than it ought to be in a

standard research datas distribution. For this reason, BASP circles have been demanding the ban

of NHSTP and hence the ban of confidence intervals, consequently (Trafimow & Marks, 2015)
Strategy choice

The important steps of the strategy which I have chosen from Bazerman and

Moores book for discussion are as given below.

1. In the first step a comparison group containing values of the parameter under

consideration from the past is selected. Current decision or forecast is compared with this

particular comparison group.

2. As all the values of the comparison group are known, its mean as well as standard

deviation is calculated. From these two values, the distribution type of the data is

assessed to proceed further.

3. In this step, a forecast is made by the experts based on the decision which has been taken.

4. This step is quite difficult as well as critical in nature. In this step the results of the

forecast are assessed. This assessment may be done in more than one ways. One way to

assess the result of the forecast in many cases is to compare it with the past data i.e. the

comparison group.

5. In this step, the initial decision which is based on the intuition, is improved by adjusting

certain factors which are calculated after comparing the results of the forecast with that of

the comparison group or with that of some other analytical tool. In this way bias error of

the initial intuition based decision is reduced effectively.

The above guidelines are sufficient for anyone looking to adjust his intuition and a bias which

regresses the mean.

References

Null Hypothesis Significance Testing. n.d. Wiki of science. Retrieved from:

http://wikiofscience.wikidot.com/pseudoscience1:null-hypothesis-significance-testing

David Trafimow & Michael Marks. (2015). Editorial. Basic and Applied Social

Psychology. 37:1-2

Bazerman, M., & Moore, D. A. (2012). Judgment in managerial decision making.