Capacity Outage Probability Table (COPT)

The COPT is a table contains all the capacity states in an ascending order of outages
magnitude. Each outage (capacity state) is multiplied by its probability. If the system
contains identical units, Binomial distribution can be used. If the units are not
identical, the procedure in the following example can be used.

Example (1):
A generating system has the following units:
(a) 10 MW (FOR = 0.02).
(b) 15 MW (FOR = 0.03).
(c) 20 MW (FOR = 0.05).
It is required to build the COPT for the system.
solution:
COPT For units (a) will be as follows:

cap out probability

0 0.98 x 0.97 x 0.95 = 0.90307
10 0.02 x 0.97 x 0.95 = 0.01843
15 0.98 x 0.03 x 0.95 = 0.02793
20 0.98 x 0.97 x 0.05 = 0.04753
25 0.02 x 0.03 x 0.95 = 0.00057
30 0.02 x 0.97 x 0.05 = 0.00097
35 0.98 x 0.03 x 0.05 = 0.00147
45 0.02 x 0.03 x 0.05 = 0.00003
---------
1.00000
Example (2):
A generating system has the following data:
(a) 2X20 MW and (b) 1X30 MW. The FOR for each unit is 0.1. It is required to
establish the COPT for the system.
Solution:
COPT For units (a) will be as follows:
cap out probability
0 0.92 = 0.81
20 2(0.9 x 0.1) = 0.18
40 0.12 = 0.01
--------
1.00

COPT For units (b) will be as follows:

cap out probability
0 0.9
30 0.1
---
1.0
The two COPT's can be combined in one single COPT, as follows:

Cap out probability

0 0.81 x 0.9 = 0.729
20 0.18 x 0.9 = 0.162
30 0.81 x 0.1 = 0.081
40 0.01 x 0.9 = 0.009
50 0.18 x 0.1 = 0.018
60 ---
70 0.01 x 0.1 = 0.001
-----
1.000

Loss of Load Probability (LOLP)

The LOLP is not widely used, at the present time, as a criterion for power system
planning because it indicates only the probability of system failure. The LOLP can be
defined as:
n
LOLP =
i=1
pi ( L max > C)

Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE)

The LOLE risk index is the most widely accepted an used probabilistic method in
system reliability evaluation for generating systems. Two models are required and
employed. One is the previously studied Load Duration Curve (LDC), and the other is
the COPT. These two models are convolved (combined) in the process. The units of
the LOLE is in days per year (d/y). The LOLE evaluation method is expressed in the
following mathematical formula:
n
LOLE = t i pi (d/y) ( L max > C)
i=1

It is clear from the above load characteristics that capacity outages less than the
reserve will not cause a loss of load. Consider now:

Oi = the ith outage state in the COPT.

pi = the probability of this ith outage.
2

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 ti = the number of time units for which this outage cause loss of load.

EXAMPLE (1):
Consider a system having 5 x 60 MW units, each with an FOR of 0.03. The load
model can be assumed as linear with maximum load (Lmax) of 240 MW, and a
minimum load (Lmin) of 100 MW. Calculate the system LOLE.

Solution:
The COPT and expected load loss (or loss of load expected) can be done as follows:
(1) (2) (3) (2x3)
cap out probability time ti loss of load expected
(MW) (%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 0.858734 0 --
60 0.132794 0 --
120 0.008214 42.86 0.352052
180 0.000254 85.71 0.021770
240 0.000004 100.00 0.000400
------------ ------------
1.000000 0.374222%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If 100% of time represents 365 days, The LOLE will be:

LOLE = 0.374222 x 365/100

= 1.365910 d/y

In system planning, the above figure is considered to be excessive (above normal),

Therefore, a value often considered to be normal LOLE risk index is considered as
0.1 d/y.

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EXAMPLE (2):
Consider now the same system, but with each unit is having an FOR of 0.01.
Calculate the LOLE of the system.

Solution:

(1) (2) (3) (2x3)

cap out probability time ti loss of load expected
(MW) (%)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 0.950990 0 --
60 0.048030 0 --
120 0.000970 42.86 0.041574
180 0.000010 85.71 0.000857
240 0.000000 100.00 0.000000
----------- ------------
1.000000 0.042431%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If 100% of time represents 365 days, The LOLE will be:

LOLE = 0.042431 x 365/100

= 0.154874 d/y

The next flowchart shows the systematic steps implemented (followed) in the
evaluation of the reliability level (LOLE) in power system planning process in order
to determine the appropriate capacity reserve margin in each year of the planning
horizon. [the LOLE level is based on the level prescribed by the utility management
decision (i.e. the LOLEp)].

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Expected Demand Not Served (DNS)
In power system planning, we need sometimes another reliability index beside the
5

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LOLE, to know the magnitude of load that has been lost due to a severe outages (i.e.
when Lmax > C). So, the DNS can be found as follows:
n
DNS = Oi pi MW/y ( L > C)
max
i=1

Expected Energy Not Served (ENS)

Since the power systems are in fact energy system, where energy sale is the real
revenue for the electric company, so, another essential and most needed reliability
index known called the ENS can be deduced as follows:

( L > C&)
n
ENS = ENS i pi MWh/y max
i=1

Energy Index of Reliability (EIR)

The ratio of expected energy not served (ENS) to the system Total Energy
Demanded (TED) can be found as:
ENS
ENS pu =
TED

This ratio, in fact is so small because of the small nature of the ENS and large nature
of the TED, so, we can deduce another important reliability index called the EIR, and
can be expressed as follows:
EIR = 1 - ENS pu