Kroll on Futures Trading

Strategy

Stanley Kroll

chivyu@macd
 @Stanley Kroll ,1988

.
.
.

1970 18000
1000000

Douglas A. McIntyre
New York City
May 27,1987

1985
11

6 11 6 11
1984 6
11 17
10000

Stanley Kroll

.......................................................................................................................- 2 -
...........................................................................................................................- 3 -
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..............................................- 7 -
................................................................- 11 -
KISSKeep It Simple Stupid.......................................- 14 -
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................................................................- 34 -
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/....................................................- 73 -
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................................- 86 -
.....................................................................................................- 92 -
J.L............................................................................- 92 -
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trader

speculators(gamblers)

7


big wipeout

6%
professionals

8
 ( 1-1) 1986

45% 55%

45% 55%

45

9
55%

Dickson Watts

10


Compu
Trac

11


12.00
20.00
12.00

22.00

12.00 20.00

12.00 15.00

22.00

35%

12


20%

13


KISSKeep It Simple Stupid

KISSKISS
keep it simple,stupid

14


134.00
140.00 141.00

134.00 141.00 3-1

3-1()

( 134.00 141.00

141.65
270.00)

open order
141.60
133.40

15

138.80
141.65 229
141.60 141.80

160.00
160.00

141.60 141.80
180.00

270.00

16
 1985
12 4

17


1829

1983 1
10

18


18
16
15
14.5
11
7.5

1982
1982

1982
1983

1
2

1975 1980

19


upstairs

20


21


22


6%

3%
6%

23


ab
c

50 %

24


5-1

3.60 4.90
5-1

3.60 3.85
4.40 1974 12 9

25


12.5 17

5-2 5-3
oscillatortrend-indicator

26
 5-219811986

27
 5-3

1939

28


1989

29


1985 7 70.00 73.00

7 10
74.00

7 26 74.00

16.00 6700 6-1

30
 6-11986 2

1985 6 7 70.00 73.00

7 26 90.00

31


1984

32
 230.00 6-2A
1984

1983
198586

6-2A

1984

6-2B 80

33
 6-2B

34


35

2

1986 8
27

7-1

7-11987 7

8 27

36


1972
45.00 55
1964

196430 62 32
196638 82 44
196842 76 34
197044 80 36

7-2

30.0038.0042.0044.00

48.00 50.00

37
 7-2

1971 1972 45.00 55.00

48.00 50.00 1973 1
59.0070.00
70.00 1974 130 140 1985
55.00 70.00

38


56.00
75.00

100

1984 8

76.00

38.00
7-3 7-4

39
 7-31984 12

76.00

55.00

40
 7-41984 9

36.00 38.20

38.00 50%
9 33.00

2.00 2.00

41

1.33

1969 1974 60.00

7-5

7-5

1967 1968 2.00

1.33

1974 50.00

42


1980 7

1986

12.00 3.00

43


8-1

8-11986 7

44


1984 7 11
1985 12 6

7 11
8-2

45
 8-2

7 11
1985 12 17

1960

46


47


1985
1986

1985 2.85
2.20 3.60 7 2.75 4250

48
 1984 6
9-1 1984
6 11 12000
1985 12 16
10500

9-1

1984 9.00
1985

49


80

20
15
15
12
10
50
 7
5
5

1984

1000
4000
1562
2587
8875
1029
2650
3250
981
2650

363125053

50%

1978 1985
69.00 35.00 58.00 29.00 2.40
1.05

51


1.

2.

3.

9-21985 34.00

1985 3 12 6 13
34.00
41.00 50% 37.00
38.05

52
 9-2

(1978 69.00
1985
1985

)


50% 100% 600 1500

15000

53


1985
5

1.
2.

3.

14%48%
38%
15 %
25%

1984

1000

54


1983 3 23 8
30

6.11
6.23 6.23

10-1

10-11983 5 ()

55
 6.23
50%
1983
3.75 18000

6.265

70
pit
..50 lots
100150

50 100 150

56


F F

40 50%
F
ALOSCACUTELACKOFSELR
XONFIDENCE

1983

60

57


1970

200
1800

..
K 90000

K
58

K

27.00 1.60 K
90000

9.35 55 2750
8.80 40 60

70
1972
10.30 11.30
17.00

3.19 3.22 3.24 3.36

59
 3.36 8.59

8.58

13.00
15930

a
b 50

FIA 1987 12

..

tick
60


61


1.

2.

62

1.
2.


1985
2.50

1987 1 26 600
2240

8.22 22 50 70

1988 1989 75 150

2000

1984

1983 2.75
45 3.20
63
 20 50% 3.75

700 5000

3.75

2
11-1
1983 3.75
1984
3.62
3.62

91

64
 11-1

1983 3.75
1984 3.62
1984 5 1

A1985 3 22 278.81984 5 1 336.52825

B 1985 3 22 278.8 1985 5 15 273.9
305
C1985 10 31 234.71986 5 15 273.91900
1984 5 1 1985 10 31
A 1984 5 1

1985 3 22
B

65

EI Nino

11-2 4.00
10.00
8
5.50
6.50

9.00
7.50

66
 11-2

5.50
6.50

67


5000
1000
1961
1000 2 2500
10000 80000

10 22500

80000

68


1870

69
 X X

1970 1976

/
/
19 429201393429964.308
19 97925774281493.363
43 24646565126439.223
70
54 87959600157443.262
55 222195728151577.207
59 165143432158274.366
60 27040249299393.201

.201 .366

1978

1970 1979

13 26
25 46
12 48
14 47
20 45
17 32
6 50
1975
1980

16 25
13 55
14 67
14 38
23 41
4 20
14 64

71


70 80

S.H

T.A

72


1987

M.L
XYZ
1983 5

19000 81814

73


. 84% 12%
. 34
5
. 2884 440

75
7500

74


QUICKTRIEVE
256 K

12-1
IBM

12-1 91

75
 12-11983 5

IBM

76
/

1983 1985
26.00 32.00 13-1 30.00-
32.00 26.00-
28.00

77
 13-1 ()

1983 1985 26.00 32.00

1986 1 11.00

13-2 13-3

13-21987 6

1986 8 1987 1 94.45

95.00 95.00 94.95

78

94.35 95.00
2 10 94.31

13-3

1983 7 1985 10 130.00 160.00

160.00
130.00
127.00 163.00
1985 10

79


Directional Movement
Index 0 100

13-4

13-4

volatilityoscillators

13-4

80


1
2

600
12 12
12 1997
3 13-5 4.80 5.10
4.89 4.86 4.74 12
5.04 5.16
12

81
 13-5 1987 3

4.80 5.10
4.86 5.04 5.06
4.74

6
5.04 1000 5.16
2000 4.86 1000 4.74
2000

5.04 1000
4.86 2000 4.86
5.04 2000

80% 100%

reversal stop

82


83


Feburary Break

84

14-1 14-2/

14-11987 7 /

/ 8.60

85
 14-21987 7 /
// 1.72

1.72

W.D.Gann

1841 1941
101

2 6
7 16
12 18
14 13
5 10
9 12

86


(Ralph Ainsworth)
1930
(
)
2 22
7 1
11 28
1 10

5 10
9 10
1930
40

(Jake Bernstein)
MBH (MBH Seasonal Futures
Charts)

1977
(1953 1977 )

( 14-3 14-4)

87
 14-3

()

88
 14-4

1980

89


1983 1987

1986 6
400
10
750
1150 /
1150 750
90
 500

750 /

15-1spread,
straddle{switch}
CRB 15-2

15-2 63 1.05 42
21 1000
100%

15-11987 7 1987 7

91
 15-1

92
 15-21987 7

70
1.00 30
90
90
20
breakage

inverted market

93


25%
50%

94


J.L.

Gulf stream

J.L.
1920

Jesse Lauriston Livermore

1877 Shrewbury

odd lots

Edward
J.Dies

1959

95


96


1980
1981
tax
straddle

1983 1986

97


17-1

1984

20 500

9 10
5500

98
 17-1CRB

1983 1986

20% 40%

Joe Klein

1940 60

99


Dickson Watts

100


Richard Dennis

RSIDM R

Baruch
1975

101


50% 100%

750 400

trade firmsbig locals

1987 5 1985
2.60 1986 6 9
1.65 2.00 8
2.00 9 22
2.07

1.00 18-1

102
 18-11987 5

1.65-2.00
trader
2.00 9 22

1.00

Robert Moss
Board of Trade C D

.
. 4%
.5% 8%10%
.

50
500 450 500 550

103
 100% 100%

30000 10000 33%
20000 30000 10000
50% 33% 50%

45%
45%

1 105000
30000

1799 6844
45%
9232 135000
1340 6844

2public traders

100000 54500
local trader
255 4156
45% 6719
634

3
18000
130000
1020 515
104


105000 100000
18000
135000 45000
112000
34% 21%
65%
1799 255
1020
6844 4156
515

45% 1340 634

-----
45% 9232 6719
------

105


1986
18-2 51.00
62.00
61.00

18-21986

106
11 3 59.00
58.00
59.50
12 19
800

59.00
10 27

100
1250

58.00 40%
59.50

59.00
59.50
below the-market stop
57.40 11 10 11

107

Satchel Paige

12 19

GNMAs

1961

Sam
Mothnet
commodity specialist

108


1975

1983 8

7.20 1984 3
6.20

9.90 1500
18000
9.00
10.00
19-1

19-11984 3

109
 6.20
6.20 9.90
18000

40 60
2

ba

1987

5.00 5.50 8.00

19-2

110
 5.00 6.006.507.00

19-2

5.00-5.50
6.50 7.10

1983 14.00

1985
1986

111


5.00-5.50

6.50
7.10
6.50
7.10

6.80-7.00 9.50-
10.50

18000

1200 2000
4.00 5.00

1987 2

5.00
112

2

1985 10 10
139.93

1986 1 29 223.34
139.93
223.34 83.41 31000
19-3

19-31986 5

113
 1985 10 10 139.93
1986 1 29 223.34
83.41 31000

5000

1986 8 13 34.54

68.00

1987 1 28
Rapid City

54.83
20000

19-4

114
 19-41987 7

68.00 1986 8 13
1987 1 28
10000

115


The Nature

1960

116


Dennis Conner1987

1987

Damon Runyon

117


PDF)

118