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AQ1 Please check that the author names are in the proper order and spelled correctly. Also, please
ensure that each authors given and surnames have been correctly identified (given names are
highlighted in red and surnames appear in blue).
AQ2 In sentence beginning Subsections II A and II B, please confirm that next two Subsections
refer to Subsections II A and II B.
AQ3 In sentence beginning The representative diagrams, please confirm that Subsection II
refers to Subsection II A.
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 J_ID: JRSEBH DOI: 10.1063/1.4927063 Date: 11-July-15 Stage: Page: 1 Total Pages: 14

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JOURNAL OF RENEWABLE AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY 7, 000000 (2015)

Analysis of impact of building integrated photovoltaic 1

systems on distribution network losses 2

AQ1 
Iva Babic,a) Zeljko 
- urisic, and Mileta Zarkovic
D 3
School of Electrical Engineering, University of Belgrade, Bulevar kralja Aleksandra 73, 4
11 000 Belgrade, Serbia 5

(Received 30 December 2014; accepted 2 July 2015; published online xx xx xxxx) 6

The effects of large-scale integration of Building Integrated Photovoltaic systems 7

on power losses in a Distribution Network (DN) have been analyzed. A compara- 8
tive analysis of three different methods has been carried out. The first applied 9
method is based on the statistical equivalent of the DN and production profiles of 10
the Photovoltaic (PV) systems calculated from the measurement data of 10 min 11
average values of solar irradiation taken for the period of 1 yr. The statistical equiv- 12
alent of the DN is estimated based on hourly measurements of the injected power 13
in the DN and billed electrical energy. The estimated equivalent statistical resist- 14
ance is used for DN modeling for the purpose of calculating power losses. Fuzzy 15
numbers are used as the second method of the research for the purpose of faster 16
estimation. The Monte Carlo simulation, as the third method, is used to involve all 17
possible situations of PV production and energy consumption. The economy calcu- 18
lation is made based on the results of power losses reduction in the DN of Serbia. 19
The proposed methodology is of a general character; however, it can be applied to 20
other power distribution systems. VC 2015 AIP Publishing LLC. 21
[http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4927063]

I. INTRODUCTION 22

Technology of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) is recognized as a technology that can 23

ensure both global energy and environmental security. In addition to this, the European Union 24
(EU) has made a decision with regard to global conditions for RES development till 2020 and 25
has set up the goal of the participation of 20% energy obtained from RES within the total 26
energy consumption in EU by 2020.1 In the past years, Photovoltaic (PV) systems have particu- 27
larly recorded a significant increase in power systems. Taking into account the available solar 28
potential worldwide49 and permanent PV panels cost reduction,1012 it is obvious why connect- 29
ing PV systems to a Distribution Network (DN) has increased.2,3 PV systems in urban environ- 30
ments are usually mounted on the roofs of buildings as Building Integrated PV (BIPV). In such 31
conditions, they are connected directly to the low voltage DN.2 Connecting PV systems has 32
caused changes of power flow through the distribution lines and transformers, and the conse- 33
quences are changes of the voltage and power losses in the DN.1319 34
In the existing literature, the influence of PV systems on power losses in a DN has been 35
mainly considered over restricted parts of the network. These calculations have been carried out 36
by explicit calculations of power flows in the analyzed part of a DN. However, large-scale PV 37
systems have an essential impact on power losses at all voltage levels. The explicit models for 38
calculation of power flows under these conditions are not practically applicable. Considering 39
the fact that a DN is an extensive network with too many loops and also with a large number 40
of consumers and a large number of unknown parameters, it is very difficult to calculate power 41

a)
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed. Electronic mail: iva@etf.rs. Mobile: 381 63 80 98 230. Tel.:
381 11 32 18 360.

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flow. Therefore, it is difficult to estimate a reduction of power losses in a DN caused by PV 42

installation. 43
In this paper, a new model is proposed and an analysis is carried out of the influence of 44
large-scale integration BIPV systems in a DN on active power. The significance of this investi- 45
gation is that it enables estimation of the effect of large-scale BIPV systems on increasing 46
power efficiency in electrical energy power distribution systems. The developed model has 47
been demonstrated by taking the example of DN of Serbia. 48
A comparative analysis of three different methods has been performed. The first imple- 49
mented method is based on statistical calculation. This method uses the statistical equivalent 50
model of DN and the network is presented with the equivalent resistance obtained from the his- 51
torical data of total power losses in the DN. It has been assumed that distribution subsystems 52
are statistically homogeneously distributed within the DN. Every house or building can have a 53
PV system and reduce power losses of DN in that manner. That method is explained in Section 54
II of this paper. In order to carry out this analysis, it is necessary to have measurement data on 55
the load diagrams at all nodes of the network, as well as data on resistances and reactance of 56
all elements of the network. These data are usually not available in the DN since measurements 57
are not performed at all nodes of the network. For that reason, a correct analysis of power flows 58
cannot be carried out by means of exact calculations. A large number of parameters are meas- 59
ured with large errors. For that reason, parameters can be presented like Fuzzy Numbers 60
(FNs).2023 Therefore, the second method includes calculations by using FN and it is described 61
in Section III. According to the literature,23,24 in cases when the parameters are variables, 62
Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) can represent them. The statistical method by using MCS is 63
also performed and it is presented in Section IV. Based on the reductions of power losses 64
obtained by all three methods, the economy calculation25 and financial acceptability of the con- 65
cept have been performed in Section V. On the basis of the same, 1-yr long measured data car- 66
ried out in Serbia, the results of these tree methods are compared and presented in Section VI. 67

II. THE STATISTICAL METHOD 68

The power flow analysis through all branches of a DN is required for an accurate calcula- 69
tion of active power losses in this DN. For any DN, it is quite difficult and complex to collect 70
a large data on network branches of a large number of consumers. Even when these data are 71
collected, they are not sufficiently precise. For that reason, in this paper, the statistical equiva- 72
lent model of the DN is used as the first method of estimation of active power losses in a DN. 73
This model allows the simple estimation of power losses in a DN, even in the case of a change 74
of load profiles of the distribution lines. In the literature,26 this model turned out to be very effi- 75
cient for calculating the influence of massive use of energy saving lamps on power losses in a 76
DN. 77
The method is based on the estimation of the equivalent statistical resistance used for mod- 78
eling the DN when calculating power losses. The DN equivalent for calculation of power losses 79
is shown in Fig. 1. PD is the power injected in the DN, RE is the equivalent statistical resistance 80
of the network, PC is the power distributed to consumers, and PL are the power losses in the 81
DN. 82
In this analysis, only the active power flows are taken into account due to their dominant 83
influence on power losses in a DN. Based on the available historical data of hourly time dia- 84
grams of active powers injected in the DN of Serbia (Fig. 2) in addition to the known annual 85

FIG. 1. DN equivalent for the calculation of power losses.

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FIG. 2. (a) Hourly diagram of active power injected in the DN of Serbia for central Wednesday in February, 2009 and (b)
hourly diagram of active power in 2009.

level of energy losses, parameter RE can be estimated by using the statistical method. 86
Parameter RE is used for modeling active power losses of the whole DN. 87
From the defined DN equivalent in Fig. 1, it is possible to calculate total active power 88
losses in a the DN by applying the following relation: 89

P2D
PL RE  CS  P2D ; (1)
U2
where Ucalculated phase-to-phase voltage and Cs URE2 the corresponding statistical parame- 90
ter of the DN. 91
Taking into account a certain distribution network, parameter Cs can be estimated on the 92
basis of the historical data on annual energy losses for the analyzed DN. 93
Active energy losses in a DN (WL) over time interval T, which can be a year, a season, a 94
week, or a day, can be defined by the following relation: 95

T
WL PL t dt: (2)
0

By inserting expression (2) into Eq. (1), the following expression is obtained: 96

T
WL CS t  P2D t dt: (3)
0

From expression (3), it can be concluded that energy losses can be estimated on the basis of 97
the time diagrams of active power injected in DN. Parameter Cs is time varying and it depends 98
on many factors, such as the voltage variations, topology of the network, as well as on the 99
redistribution of loads over the DN branches. As far as power losses are concerned, it can be 100
assumed that the system may be represented by a fixed value of parameter Cs . Taking that into 101
account, expression (3) can be rewritten in the following form: 102

T
WL CS  P2D t dt: (4)
0

In order to determine parameter Cs , it is necessary to know the diagrams of active power 103
injected in the DN PD and the corresponding power losses. Subsections II A and II B provide a 104
AQ2 description on the way of estimating these parameters. 105

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A. The methodology for calculation of the representative diagram of consumption 106

The best way to calculate the consumed power and to estimate the power losses is to per- 107
form calculations for each hour throughout the year on the basis of the corresponding average 108
hourly values of the consumption power and power of production of PV systems. Nevertheless, 109
it requires the knowledge of daily consumption diagrams for the analyzed DN throughout whole 110
year with 1-h resolution. In most cases, the consumption data are not available for the whole 1- 111
yr period, but only for certain characteristic days (e.g., central Wednesdays of months). In that 112
case, it is possible to apply the statistical method that will utilize the available data set of daily 113
consumption diagrams in order to determine a diagram, which most appropriately represents the 114
power losses at annual level. Mathematically, the problem will be solved through application of 115
the method of the minimum sum of least squares most efficiently. 116
The algorithm for determining the representative consumption diagram on the basis of an 117
available set of M characteristic daily diagrams consists of the following algorithm steps: 118

(1) Calculating the average daily diagram of the square of the consumption power that is per- 119
formed in the following way: 120

1X 2
jM
2
PDi P ; i 1; 2; :::; 24 ; (5)
M j1 Dij

where PDij is active power of consumption within i-th hour of the j-th day. 121
(2) For each of the M available diagrams, the average deviation of hourly values of the squared 122
powers compared to the diagram defined by relation (6) is calculated 123

v
u i24  2
u1 X
rj t
2
P2Dij  PDi ; j 1; ; M: (6)
24 i1

(3) Daily diagram of consumption PD t having minimum value of the average hourly deviation 124
of the squared power, calculated by relation (6), is selected. Diagram PD t is the representa- 125
tive diagram of consumption in so far as the power losses are concerned. 126

B. The methodology for determining the statistical parameter of distribution network 127

In order to estimate statistical parameter Cs , it is necessary to know the representative time 128
diagram of consumption and annual energy losses of the analyzed DN. Subsection II A 129
describes determining the representative diagrams of the power of consumption. Total energy 130
losses are usually known for certain DN from the difference between the injected and delivered 131
electrical energies. On the basis of the representative diagram of consumption, total annual 132
energy losses, defined by relation (4), can be represented by the following relation: 133

T iX
24
WL CS  PD 2 tdt CS  M  PDi 2 ; (7)
i1
0

where T 8760number of hours per year, PDi powers of consumption during i-th hour for 134
the representative consumption diagrams, and M 365number of days. 135
Based on relation (7), the estimate of statistical parameter Cs is 136

WL
CS : (8)
P
i24
M PDi 2
i1

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C. The influence of dispersed BIPV systems on active power losses in a DN 137

Installing BIPV systems and connecting them to a low voltage DN change the profiles of 138
power flows through distribution lines. The effect of connecting the BIPV systems is the reduc- 139
tion of the electrical energy delivered to the final consumers by the DN, in view of the fact that 140
the consumers in these objects and BIPV systems are connected to the same point of the DN. It 141
is required to estimate the diagram of the PV panel production in order to evaluate the influ- 142
ence of the installed BIPV systems on the time diagram of injected power in the DN. 143
The production estimation diagram of PV panels is carried out on the basis of the measure- 144
ments of solar irradiation and ambient temperature. The measurements refer to the DN area. 145
Power that can be injected by PV panels in a DN (PPVi) per each hour of an average day is 146
estimated in accordance with the following relation:32 147

IPVi IPVeqi
PPVi ginv PPVSTC  1 aTPV TPVi  TSTC ginv PPVSTC ; (9)
ISTC ISTC

where PPVSTC is the declared power of a PV panel under the Standard Test Conditions (STCs); 148
IPVi is average solar irradiation falling on the surface of a PV panel during hour i of an average 149
day; ISTC 1000 Wm2 is the solar irradiation that corresponds to STC; ginv is the efficiency of 150
the inverter; aTPV is the temperature coefficient of variation of power of PV panels, typically 151
equal to 0, 5 %  C1 ;TSTC 25  C is temperature of the panel at STC; and TPVi is the average 152
hourly temperature of the panel during hour i of an average day, which is estimated according 153
to the following equation:27 154

 
NOCT  20
TPVi Tamb i  IPVi ; (10)
800

where Tambi is the average measured ambient temperature during the hour i of an average day, 155
NOCT (Normal Operation Cell Temperature) is the cell temperature in a module when the am- 156
bient temperature is 20  C, solar irradiation is 0.8 kW m2 , and the wind speed is 1 ms1 . The 157
NOCT parameter is normally obtained from the manufacturers of the PV modules. 158
The ambient temperature and horizontal irradiation measurement data have been obtained 159
in the target region over a 1-yr period. 160
Based on the representative diagrams of the PV panels production, the reduction of power 161
losses in DN can be calculated. Under conditions of power injection by the BIPV systems, the 162
following relation calculates the average hourly power injected in the power distribution system 163
during i-th hour (PDiPV): 164

PPV
Di PDi  DPDi  DPLi ; (11)

where DPDireductions of the power taken by the consumers from the DN (net reduction of 165
consumption) and DPLithe reduction of the power losses. 166
DPDi corresponds to the PV panels power production during i-th hour 167

DPDi PPvi : (12)

Formally, the following mathematical relation can represent the reduction of the power losses: 168

DPLi PLi  PLi PV ; (13)

where: PLi and PLiPV are the estimated daily diagrams of the power losses in a DN before and 169
after the PV panels are connected, respectively. The following relations calculate these 170
quantities: 171

PLi CS  PDi 2 ; (14)

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PLi PV CS  PDi PV 2 : (15)

By combining Eqs. (13)(15), one obtains the following expression is obtained for the esti- 172
mated change of the power losses in a DN after the PV systems have been connected: 173

DPLi CS  PDi 2  PDi  DPPVi DPLi 2 : (16)

The preceding algorithm has showed good results in estimating the loss reduction due to a mas- 174
sive use of energy saving lamps in the power distribution system of Serbia, which is found in 175
the literature.26 In essence, the effects of BIPV systems are the same, the difference being that 176
they hit at daily peaks of consumption whereas the lighting devices hit at the overnight peak 177
consumption regime. 178
The total annual reduction of the energy losses in a DN (DWL) can be estimated on the ba- 179
sis of the following relation: 180

T
DWL DPL t dt: (17)
0

III. FUZZY LOGIC 181

Fuzzy optimization, fuzzy linear programming, and fuzzy controllers are utilized in many 182
power energy resource areas.2830 Fuzzy logic is often applied to the load flow, where the 183
power and voltage in the power grid are FNs. In considerations of RES, the variables involved 184
are rarely seen as FNs. Fuzzy logic has full meaning when the input variables change their 185
hourly values without rules. Variables such as the power of consumption are randomly varia- 186
bles, depending on consumers. A change of consumption causes a change in the power injected 187
into a DN. In a similar way, insolation changes are dictated by natural conditions. Based on 188
that input, data in the first statistical method are represented in the form of FNs. Fuzzy logic is 189
a mathematically formalized model that can show some uncertainties in measured data. This 190
theory is used to model input data in order to calculate the parameter, Cs, and reduction of 191
power losses, DPL, of a DN. Fuzzy set is a generalization of classical set, since the membership 192
(i.e., membership level), or the elements, of a fuzzy set can be characterized as numbers from 193
the interval [0, 1].23,25 The measured variable data (solar irradiation, injected power, power of 194
consumption) take the individual values with a certain probability. The fuzzy set membership 195
function (l) shows this probability and maps each element of the universal set of the mentioned 196
interval of real numbers. The first step of fuzzy logic, i.e., fuzzification, ought to be taken in 197
order to properly modify the input data in the form of FNs. The measured injected power (PD) 198
and consumption power (PC) are converted into appropriate fuzzy shape. This is provided by 199
the membership functions, which actually present possible distribution of fuzzy variable. As is 200
usually the case, the power membership function is in the form of triangle shown in Fig. 3. The 201
highest probability, l(PD2) 1, is that the power has mean value. The probability that the 202
power may require minimum or maximum of the measured PD is 0, l(PD1,3) 1. FNs can be 203
formed for PD and PC on the basis of the real measurements by means of the following 204
equations: 205

PD1 mini1;n PDi

1X n
PD2 PDi (18)
n i1
PD3 maxi1;n PDi :

Parameter Cs can be calculated (similar to formula (8)) as 206

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FIG. 3. The injected power and power of consumption in the form of fuzzy numbers.

PD  PC
CS : (19)
PD

At this point, Cs is in the form of a FN as well. Based on calculated hourly injected power of a 207
PV panel into the DN (Sec. II C), PPV can be represented in the form of a FN (17). Based on 208
formulas (11)(16), reduction of power losses can be calculated by using the formed FNs. Cs 209
and DPL can be calculated for each Wednesday, for each month in 2009, and for the whole 210
year. In all formulas operations with FNs are defined trough their membership functions as 211

lC z lA;;=B maxfminlA x; lB yg: (20)

The results of the second method, Cs and DPL, for the year 2009 are in the form of FNs. In 212
order to compare these results with the results of the first method, it is necessary to transform 213
them to real numbers. This transformation is defuzzification and represents an opposite process 214
of fuzzification. The most commonly utilized method of defuzzification that is being applied is 215
the center of gravity. The output results have unique values and thus can be compared. The 216
applied fuzzy logic allows implementation of a large number of the measured data. A large 217
number of data is processed fast and represented by fuzzy logic. 218

IV. MONTE CARLO SIMULATION 219

MCS uses statistics to mathematically model the real process, and subsequently, deter- 220
mine the probability of possible solutions. MCS can be defined as a method of statistical sim- 221
ulation in which the sequences of random numbers are used for the execution of a simulation. 222
The result of MCS is calculated as a function of several uncertain inputs each of which has 223
its own probability distribution. In recent decades, MCS has received a fully achieved status 224
and represents one of the numerical methods capable of solving the most complex condition 225
requirements. 226
In this paper, MCS is used to simulate the measured power uncertainty and calculate the 227
PV power that represents the input variables in the power loss reduction calculation. One way 228
to better characterize the sources of the system uncertainty is to represent the input data as ran- 229
dom values from some specified measured range in the problem. Consequently, according to 230
the first method, the inputs PD, WL, and PC, respectively, are represented with their hourly val- 231
ues, in addition to the value for each hour of central Wednesday of every month. In that way, 232
input random changes are not considered. For example, power of consumption and insolation 233
change in every minute, and thus, represent a new situation in DN. These situations are covered 234
and discussed in method with FNs and MCS. The ranges from which the input variables are 235
selected by a random method are the same both in the first and the second method. The varia- 236
bles and their limits are identical as is the case in the FNs methods. The power range can be 237
formed based on real measurements using the equations 238

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Pmin mini1;n Pi ;
(21)
Pmax maxi1;n Pi :

Variables have been randomly selected from the power range and were used as such in 239
(11)(16). The number of MCS is a number of taken from range values. The number of simula- 240
tions needed to obtain an accurate result with MCS is independent of the system size.31 241
Commonly used number of simulations (nMCS) is 1000.32 The advantage of this method is easy 242
visualization, understanding, and interpretation. The values that can be most expected and im- 243
portant can be seen in these calculations by applying MCS. The results Cs and DPL of calcula- 244
tions carried out by utilization of MCS are provided in the form of a histogram that displays 245
the calculated values distribution. In order to compare these results with the results of the first 246
method and defuzzificated results, the mean values are calculated in the following way: 247

1 X
Cmax
CS Ci : (22)
nMCS C
min

V. THE ECONOMY MODEL OF BIPV 248

The financial savings in the energy loss reduction and financial investment for the installa- 249
tion of PV have been compared in order to show the economic influence of BIPV systems in 250
DN of Serbia. The cost of the undelivered electricity due to power losses depends on the elec- 251
tricity price. Electricity prices (c[e/kW h]) are not identical all the time. The power distribution 252
system of Serbia possesses three tariffs of electricity prices (c1 0.0395, c2 0.059, 253
c3 0.118[e/kW h]). Based on these tariffs, FN for electricity price is defined as c (c1, c2, c3). 254
The Feed-In Tariff (FIT) guaranteed price for BIPV is cf it 0.206 [e/kW h] in Serbia. 255
Similarly to power price, they have a triangular membership function. The electricity price is 256
correlated with the consumption power and injected power. MCS is used to simulate a continual 257
variation of electricity price in the same intervals as FN. The investment capital cost of PV 258
panels is IC 1.2 [million e/MW] and the residual value of the PV panels after the end of their 259
lifetime is RV 10% of IC. The operation and maintenance costs of PV panels are considered 260
to be zero. It has been assumed that if the electricity company invests in providing households 261
with PV panels, the consumers of electricity have to oblige themselves to maintain panels. In 262
this way, consumers will acquire the heightened awareness about energy saving, green energy 263
production, and nature pollution reduction. All values ought to be reduced to annual costs with 264
the aim of assessing the period, number of years, and the repayment of such investments.23 The 265
saving power utility value will be proportional to the power losses reduction. The required pe- 266
riod is estimated on the basis of update rate, i, in the following inequality: 267

1 i n  i i
IC RV  DWL  c WPV  cf it > 0; (23)
1 i n  1 1 i n  1

where WPV is the average annual electricity production of PV 268

T
WPV PPV t dt: (24)
0

VI. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 269

This section has analyzed the impact of BIPV systems in Serbia on the power losses of the 270
DN. The scenario of installation of a prospective BIPV system of 1000 MWp is considered. 271
Energy balances of the power distribution system of Serbia for 2009 show that the delivered 272

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FIG. 4. The estimated representative daily diagrams of the power injected in the power distribution system of Serbia.

electrical energy equals 29 676 GW h while the billed electrical energy is 25 305 GW h. Based 273
on that total loss of power distribution systems equals 4371 GW h which implies 14.72%. The 274
amount of total distribution losses represents the sum of the technical and non-technical losses. 275
The representative diagrams of load at the point of interconnections of the transmission and 276
power distribution systems have been calculated on the basis of the methodology presented in 277
AQ3 Subsection II A and by utilizing the available diagrams of consumption for the central 278
Wednesdays of months for the analyzed year, or more specifically, 2009. The diagrams have 279
been calculated for two seasons, from April to September and from October to March, which 280
are displayed in Fig. 4. 281
On the basis of the available load diagrams for the central Wednesdays of months and 282
data about technical energy losses, statistical parameter CS is 1.5325  1011 (W1) for the 283
analyzed year. The estimated annual losses WL were determined, according to relation (8), as 284
2655 GW h, which corresponds to 60% of 4371 GW h. Cs is calculated by utilization of the 285
FNs and MCS for the sake of comparison and verification of the presented method. The 286
results of comparative analysis are presented in Table I. The histogram of Cs and its FN are 287
presented in Fig. 5. 288
The values for CS from Table I are used in further calculations. In this analysis, it has been 289
assumed that PV panels were homogeneously distributed within the DN, the total installed 290
power of the BIPV panels being a variable in the analysis. It was necessary to determine repre- 291
sentative diagrams of PV panels production for the purpose of estimating annual power losses 292
due to the intermittent character of solar radiation and nonlinear relation between power losses 293
and power flows. The calculation of the average hourly power of PV panels production at this 294
location has been performed on the basis of the available measurements of horizontal solar irra- 295
diation and air temperature at the location of Kovin near Belgrade, which was carried out in 296
the course of 2009. It has been assumed, for the purpose of this analysis, that the measured 297

TABLE I. Average values of the statistical parameter (CS) and reduction of power losses (DPL) for the power distribution
system of Serbia in the analyzed period of 2009.

Method Results CS (1011 W1) DPL (MW)

Statistical method of estimation 1.5325 22.1496

Fuzzy logic Min. value 1.3987 12.4877
AQ4 Defuzzificated 1.5063 16.7149
Max. value 1.6786 34.4111
Monte Carlo simulation Min. value 1.3531 15.6400
Mean value 1.5211 18.4420
Max. value 1.652 30.2563

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FIG. 5. The statistical parameter CS estimated by MCS and fuzzy logic.

results can be regarded as representative for the whole territory of Serbia33,34 in connection 298
with the geographical position of the site and climatic conditions at the time of the measure- 299
ments. In the calculation of PPV, the panels were assumed to be south oriented and fixed under 300
the angle of 34 The following characteristics of the modules have been presumed: 301
NOCT 47  C, coefficient of efficiency temperature variation 0.5%/  C, losses due to dirt 302
deposits on the panels 4%, losses due to module misfits within a panel 3%, and EURO effi- 303
ciency of inverter 97%. Backed by the obtained average hourly values of production and aimed 304
at estimating power losses two representative daily diagrams of PV panel production have been 305
determined. The diagrams are shown in Fig. 6. They have been estimated by applying the 306
method of minimum sum of least squares. The same measurements and data are used to form 307
power generation of PV as FN and for MCS utilization, which represent similar procedures and 308
results as for the CS. 309
It is not difficult to calculate the power loss reduction DPL when production of PV panels 310
and parameter CS of DN are known. The average annual reduction of power losses in the power 311
distribution system of Serbia has been estimated (Table I) by means of relations (16) and (17) 312
and the estimated representative daily diagrams of the power injected in the power distribution 313
system, as well as the diagrams of the PV panels production. Fig. 7 displays variations of the 314
daily diagram of the power injected in the power distribution system, for the analyzed 315

FIG. 6. The estimated representative daily diagrams of production of PV panels.

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FIG. 7. Comparative time diagrams of the power injected in the power distribution system of Serbia for the representative
day over period: (a) period OctoberMarch and (b) period AprilSeptember before and after installation of 1000 MWp of
dispersed BIPV panel.

representative days in the winter and summer seasons, for the power distribution system con- 316
taining 1000 MWp of installed power of the PV panels. 317
Backed by the time diagrams shown in Fig. 7, it can be concluded that PV panels have 318
influence on reduction of the power injected in the power distribution system during the period 319
of daily peak load. This effect is particularly emphasized during the warmer period of the year, 320
when production of the PV panels is higher and the correlation between the peak power of con- 321
sumption and peak power of production of PV panels can be better compared to that of the 322
colder part of the year. Provided that the scenario of building 1000 MWp of dispersed BIPV 323
have been fulfilled in the power distribution system of Serbia, the power losses in the power 324
distribution system would have been reduced for about 7% at the annual level. All three meth- 325
ods give similar results. The average annual power losses would be reduced by 22.1 MW, i.e., 326
193.6 GW h/yr, which amounts to 15% of the total annual energy production of the 1000 MWp 327
BIPV. This saving is realized during the periods of daily peak loads, thus the economic value 328
of the energy saving at the electricity market by 20%30% higher in comparison to the average 329
daily price of energy at the EEX open market.35 330
Up to now, the interest rate for Serbia is about i 9%. Based on Section V and Eq. (23), 331
the period for repayment of such an investment totals 12 yr. This is the result obtained by all 332
three methods. Fuzzy logic and MCS show that this result is the best case of PV production. In 333
case that the PV is not in the form of BIPV, there is no reduction of power looses and period 334
of repayment totals 13 yr. The reduction of power losses of DN Serbia will save about 11.508 335
millions e per year. 336

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VII. CONCLUSIONS 337

The main idea of this paper was to estimate the influence of the prospective dispersed PV 338
systems on the active power losses in the DN of Serbia. Three methods for estimation of DN 339
and power losses have been considered. The statistical method is confirmed by MCS, which 340
include all possible situations of PV production and electricity consumption. If the measure- 341
ments are not precise and not frequently performed, then the best method is to use FNs. 342
The calculations showed that installation of BIPV systems could reduce significantly the 343
active power losses in the power distribution system. This paper showed that if 1000 MWp 344
BIPV would be installed in the DN of Serbia, which could be considered realistic, the power 345
losses in the power distribution system would have been reduced for about 7% at the annual 346
level. The average annual power losses would be reduced by 22.1 MW, i.e., 193.6 GW h/yr, 347
which amounts to 15% of the total annual energy production of the 1000 MWp BIPV. The sig- 348
nificance of this research is to rise up consumers mind about energy saving, production of 349
green energy, and reduce pollution of nature. The proposed methodology is of a general charac- 350
ter and application. Therefore, the methods can be applied to other power distribution systems 351
in which massive construction of BIPV is planned. 352

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 353

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