20171013 HurricanesUnnaturalTollbyPeterSingerProjectSyndicate

HurricanesUnnaturalToll
projectsyndicate.org /commentary/hurricanesinadequatepreventivemeasuresbypetersinger2017
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PeterSinger 20171013

PRINCETONThe2017Atlantichurricaneseason,whichofficiallybeganonJune1andwillendonNovember
30,islikelytobethemostexpensiveonrecord.Hurricaneshavekilledcloseto300peopleintheregionthis
season,anddamageestimatessofarstandat$224billion.Onascalethatmeasurestheaccumulatedcyclonic
energyofhurricanes,thisseasonisthefirsttohaverecordedthreestormseachratedabove40.Fortunately,one
ofthosethree,HurricaneJose,remainedmostlyatsea,whereitdidlittleharmbutHurricanesIrmaandMaria
causedwidespreaddestructionintheCaribbean,includingPuertoRico.Irmahadanaccumulatedcyclonicenergy
of66.6,thethirdhighesteverrecorded.

WhyCataloniasIndependenceBidIsFailing
Oct12,2017ShlomoBenAmidescribestheinsuperable
obstaclesthatwillstifletheregionalgovernment'sdrivefor
statehood.

HurricaneHarveyhadlessenergybutbroughtrecordbreaking
rainandfloodingtoHoustonandotherpartsofTexasand
Louisiana.HarveymaybethemostexpensivestorminUShistory,
evenexceedingthecostofrebuildingNewOrleansafterHurricaneKatrinain2005.Employmentfiguresshowthat
theUnitedStateslost33,000jobsinSeptember,whichanalystsattributetothehurricanes.Then,justasthe
seasonseemedtobewindingdown,HurricaneNatecausedatleast24deathsinCostaRica,Nicaragua,and
Honduras,beforeheadingfortheUS.

Harvey,Irma,andMariawereextraordinarilypowerfulstorms.Butthenumberofliveslostandtheamountof
damagecausedreflecthumandecisions.Houstonsnotoriouslaissezfaireapproachtozoningallowedhousesto
bebuiltonfloodplains.Between1996and2010,theHoustonChroniclehasreportedtheregionlost54,000acres
ofwetlands,wheresomeoftherainfallcouldhavebeenabsorbed.Stormwaterdrainagecapacityfailedtokeep
pacewiththeexpandingpavedareas.Inacitywithmorefarsightedplanningcontrols,therewouldhavebeen
fewerliveslostandlessdamage.

Planningaheadcansavevastsums.AccordingtoanindependentstudyfortheUSFederalEmergency
ManagementAgency,adollarspentondisastermitigationsavestaxpayers$3.65,onaverage,andsavessociety
anadditional$4.

Thecostbenefitratioisevenhigherindevelopingcountries.InBangladesh,wheremillionsofpeopleliveon
fertilebutfloodproneriverdeltas,thenonprofitorganizationIslamicRelieffoundthatbyraisingthelandon
whichpeoplelived,itcouldprovidelongtermprotectionfromfloodsatacostof400($525)perfamily.
Otherwise,thefamilywaslikelytoloseeverythinginamajorflood,andwouldthenneed440inemergencyaidin
asinglemonth.Bangladeshhasalsosavedmanylivesbybuildingstormsheltersandprovidingadvance
warningsofcomingstorms.

Despitetheclearandmountingevidenceofthecosteffectivenessoftimelyactiontomitigatethedamagestorms
cause,theworldspendsfarmoreonpostdisasteraidandreconstructionthanitdoesonmitigation,andthisis
especiallytrueinpoorcountries.Thatsunderstandable,becauseeveningoodtimes,poorcountrieshavelittleto
spare.

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Butitshouldbeeasiertochangethebalanceofspendingfromhumanitarianaidorganizations.UnitedNations
andWorldBankreportsindicatethatfrom2000to2008,richcountrygovernmentsdevoted20%ofallaid
spendingtodisasterreliefwork,butlessthan1%todisasterprevention.

Twoelementsofhumanpsychologycontributetoourirrationalneglectofpreventivemeasures.Wearenotgood
atgivingtheappropriateweighttolowriskevents,howevercatastrophictheymaybe,andwearemore
concernedaboutsavingidentifiablepeoplethanaboutsavingliveswhenwedontknowwhosewillbesaved.

Thefirstfailingisdemonstratedbytheneedforlegislationtoensurethatpeopleincarsbuckletheirseatbelts,
eventhoughanyrationalcostbenefitcalculationwouldindicatethatdoingsoisthesensiblechoice.Thesecond
isreflectedinourwillingnesstospendalmostunlimitedsumstorescuetrappedminers,andourreluctancetopay
forhighersafetystandardsthatwouldsavemorelivesatlowercost.Weempathizewiththetrappedminers,but
wecannotidentifywiththepeoplewhoseliveswillbesavedbystrictersafetymeasures.Yeteverystatisticallife
savedwillturnouttobethelifeofanidentifiableperson.

Finally,whatofthestormsthemselves?Wethinkofhurricanesasnaturalandirresistibleevents,soallwecando
isreducethelossoflifeandthedamagetheycause.Yetclimatescientistshavebeenwarningusfordecades
nowthatthecontinuedemissionofgreenhousegasesiscausingourplanettobecomewarmer.Althoughitis
impossibletoattributeanyparticularstormtoclimatechange,weknowthatwhentropicalstormsformover
warmerwater,theystrengthenandbecomemoreintense.Climatescientistshavethereforepredictedmore
frequentandmoredamaginghurricanes.

The2017Atlantichurricaneseasonaddstothemountingevidenceinsupportofthatprediction.Thecostof
repairingthedamagemustbetakenintoaccountinthecostbenefitdiscussionofswitchingtocleansourcesof
energyandreducingmethaneemissionsfromthemeatindustry.Thequestionisnotwhetherwecanaffordto
switchtocleanenergyandmoreenvironmentallyfriendlyfoods,butwhetherwecanaffordtocontinuelivingwith
awarmingplanetandallitsconsequences.