Landslidetimeforecast

methods

Aliteraturereviewtowards
reliablepredictionoftimetofailure




Version: April2009

Author: MatthiasBusslinger
mbusslin@hsr.ch

HSRUniversityofAppliedSciences
InstitutfrBauundUmwelt
Rapperswil,Switzerland
 LandslideForecastMethods

Contents

Abstract...................................................................................................................................................3
Introduction.............................................................................................................................................4
Characterizingalandslide.......................................................................................................................5
Leadtimeandaccuracyofprediction.................................................................................................6
Longtermforecastmethods...................................................................................................................7
Midandshorttermforecasting.............................................................................................................8
Forecastsbasedoninsitumeasurements..........................................................................................8
Deformationbasedforecasts..........................................................................................................8
Porewaterpressurebasedforecasts...........................................................................................15
Watercontentbasedforecasts.....................................................................................................15
Microseismicbasedforecasts......................................................................................................16
Forecastsbasedonclimaticconditions.............................................................................................17
Rainfallthresholdbasedforecasts................................................................................................17
Stateoftheartandfuturetrends........................................................................................................20
Measuringdevices.............................................................................................................................20
Multiparameterbasedforecasts......................................................................................................20
WirelessSensorNetworksWSN....................................................................................................21
WirelessUndergroundSensorNetworksWUSN...........................................................................24
Conclusionandfutureneeds.................................................................................................................25
RoleofGeotechnicalExperts............................................................................................................25
Selectionofappropriatemonitoringparameter...............................................................................25
Nextstepstowardsreliableforecasts...............................................................................................26
References.............................................................................................................................................27

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 LandslideForecastMethods

Abstract
Thefollowingarticleistheresultofanextensiveliteraturereviewabouttimeforecastsoflandslides.
A short overview about longterm forecasts is given, but the focus is on mid and shortterm
forecasts. The methods are classified by the parameters required to make a prediction (i.e. insitu
measurements and climatic conditions). The methods are summarized and references to detailed
articlesaregivenforeachmethod.Theaimofthisreviewistogiveanoverviewofpreviouslymade
attemptstopredictlandslidesandfutureresearchneedsandchallengesareaddressed.
Thisreviewhasshownastrongneedforlowcostwarningsystemsforlandslides.Therefore,current
researchactivitiesinthefieldofwirelesssensornetworksarepresentedaswell.
Inadditiontothisarticle,asummaryofthepresentedmethodsisgiveninaseparateschemacalled
LandslideForecastToolbox.Forthefutureitisplannedtoprogramawiki,tomakethisliterature
reviewaccessibleviaInternet.

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 LandslideForecastMethods

Introduction
The term landslide denotes the movement of a mass of rock, debris or earth down a slope.
Landslides are a regional and sitespecific problem. The occurrence of landslides depends on
topography,geology,groundwater,weather,vibrationsandhumancauses.Landslidesrangeinmany
orders of magnitude in size, from small boulders to several cubic kilometers of mass. Speeds vary
fromextremelyslow(mm/y)toextremelyrapidmovements(several100km/h)(CrudenandVarnes
1996). Landslide processes are very complex and present challenges in the development of early
warningsystems.Nevertheless,severalsuccessfulattemptshavebeenmadetoforecastlandslides.
Thisliteraturereviewgivesanoverviewaboutlandslideforecastmethodswithafocusonrealtime
warning.Anoutlookaboutfutureneedsandresearchtrendsisgivenaswell.
Besidesrigorousavoidingoflandslideproneareas,successfulearlywarningisoneofthemostcost
effective ways of disaster prevention. Realtime warning systems are suitable for communication
routesandlifelines,suchasrailroadsandhighwayswherehazardzonescannotbebypassed.The
UnitedNationInternationalStrategyforDisasterReductionISDRdividesanearlywarningsysteminto
fourelements(webISDR):

TheFourElementsofEffectiveEarlyWarningSystems

Riskknowledge Monitoringand Disseminationand Responsecapability
warningservice communication

Systematicallycollect Develophazard Communicaterisk Buildnationaland

dataandundertake monitoringandearly informationandearly communityresponse
riskassessments warningservices warnings capabilities

Arethehazardsand Aretheright Dowarningsreachall Areresponseplans
thevulnerabilitieswell parametersbeing ofthoseatrisk?Are uptodateand
known?Whatarethe monitored?Isthere therisksandthe tested?Arelocal
patternsandtrendsin asoundscientific warningsunderstood? capacitiesand
thesefactors?Arerisk basisformaking Isthewarning knowledgemadeuse
mapsanddatawidely forecasts?Can informationclearand of?Arepeople

available? accurateandtimely
useable preparedandready
warningsbe
toreacttowarnings?

generated?

Fig.1TheFourElementsofEffectiveEarlyWarningSystems.Thisliteraturereviewfocusesmainlyonthe2nd
elementofmonitoringandwarningservice(Graph:webISDR)

Risk knowledge in Fig. 1, is primarily collected by geologists and regional planners and results in
mapsindicatinglandslideproneareas.ThesecondelementMonitoringandearlywarningserviceis
stronglyrelatedtogeotechnicalengineeringandthereforethemainobjectiveofthisreview.Thelast
twoelementsareessentialforthesuccessofanearlywarningsystem.Collaborationwithauthorities
as well as communication, public knowledge and participation are crucial, but exceed the general
tasksofgeotechnicalengineers.

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 LandslideForecastMethods

Ageneralearlywarningsystemforlandslidesisnotgivenuptothisday.Thetypesofmovement(i.e.
fall, topple, glide) are very different processes and therefore it is difficult to develop a general
landslidewarningsystem(Baehr,2004).However,itispossibletomonitorinstableslopesaccording
totheirlocalproperties.Thisliteraturereviewgivesanoverviewaboutthemethodsdevelopedsofar
andintendstoinspireengineerstodevelopnewtechniquesandcombinedifferentmethods.

Characterizingalandslide
Cruden and Varnes 1996 reviewed the range of landslide processes and provided a vocabulary for
describing the features of landslides relevant to their classification. A nomenclature for the
observablelandslidefeaturesisillustratedinFig.2below.

Fig.2Blockdiagramofidealizedcomplexearthslideearthflow(CrudenandVarnes1996)

Anylandslidecanbeclassifiedanddescribedbytwonouns:thefirstdescribesthematerialandthe
seconddescribesthetypeofmovement.
Thematerialcanbedividedintoeitherrock,ahardorfirmmassthatwasintactinitsnaturalplace
beforetheinitiationofmovement,orsoil,anaggregateofsolidparticles,generallyofmineralsand
rocks,thateitherwastransportedorwasformedbytheweatheringofrockinplace.
Soilisdividedintoearthanddebris(Tab.1).Earthdescribesmaterialinwhich80percentormoreof
the particles are smaller than 2 mm, the upper limit of sandsize particles recognized by most
geologists. Debris contains a significant proportion of coarse material; 20 to 80 percent of the
particlesarelargerthan2mm,andtheremainderarelessthan2mm.
Thefivekinematicallydistincttypesoflandslidemovementare,fall,topple,slide,spreadandflow.

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 LandslideForecastMethods

AbbreviatedClassificationofSlopeMovements
(After:CrudenandVarnes1996)
TypeofMaterial
EngineeringSoils
Typeof
Movement Bedrock Coarse Fine

Fall Rockfall Debrisfall Earthfall

Topple Rocktopple Debristopple Earthtopple

Slide Rockslide Debrisslide Earthslide

Spread Rockspread Debrisspread Earthspread

Flow Rockflow Debrisflow Earthflow

Tab.1Namestodescribelandslidesarelisted(e.g.,rockfall,debrisflow).After(CrudenandVarnes1996)

Leadtimeversusaccuracyofprediction
Intermsoftime,forecastscanberoughlydividedintothreeclassesofleadtime.Longtermforecasts
mostlyindicateapotentialhazardwithinacertainregion,yearsbeforetheyactuallyoccur.Midterm
forecastspredictfailuresseveralmonthsahead.Andfinallyshorttermpredictionshavealeadtime
ofmonthstodays.
Asaruleofthumbwecansay:Longerleadtimeallowsmorepreventiveactionsagainstlandslide
disasters.Butontheotherhandlongerleadtimecomesoftenwithlessaccuracy,intermsoftime
andlocation.
Thisreviewfocusesmainlyonmidandshorttermpredictions.Nevertheless,ashortoverviewabout
longtermforecastingisgiveninthefollowingsection.

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 LandslideForecastMethods

Longtermforecastmethods
The first step towards a landslide forecast is often a systematic collection of data in a landslide
hazardzonation.Anidealmapofslopeinstabilityhazardshouldprovideinformationonthespatial
probability, type, magnitude, velocity, runout distance and retrogression limit of the mass
movementspredictedinacertainarea(SoetersandvanWesten1996).Theselandslideinventories
aremainlymadebygeologists.Themapscanbeinterpretedasafirstlongtermforecast.Although,
theycannotpredicttheexacttimeofaneventandcoveraregion,ratherthanaspecificslope,they
indicateapotentialhazardseveralyearsinadvanceofanevent.
Thelastfewdecadeshaveshownveryrapiddevelopmentoftheapplicationofdigitaltoolssuchas
GeographicInformationSystems(GIS),DigitalImageProcessing,DigitalPhotogrammetryandGlobal
Positioning Systems (GPS). In landslide risk assessment at scales of 1:10000 or smaller, GIS has
becomethestandardtool.
Much progress has been made in the generation of Digital Elevation Models (DEM) obtained from
different sources like Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) or Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR). DEM
areusedto generatelandslideinventories.Landslideinventoriescannow makeuseofavarietyof
approaches,rangingfromdigitalstereoimageinterpretationtoautomaticclassification,basedeither
onspectraloraltitudedifferences,oracombinationofboth.Landslideinventorydatabasesbecome
available to more countries and several are now also available through the Internet. A
comprehensive landslide inventory is a basic requirement in order to be able to quantify both
landslidehazardandrisk(vanWesten2007).SoetersandvanWesten(1996)aswellasGuzzettietal.
(1999)presentedverygoodandstructuredreviewsofcurrenttechniquestoobtainlandslidehazard
maps.Theresultsoftheseassessmentsresultinhazardmapsandareusedbyregionalplannersto
avoidendangeredzonesinpublicplanningortakeaccordingmeasures.

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 LandslideForecastMethods

Midandshorttermforecasting
Routinesurveysoflandslideproneareasorslopesprovideinformationabouttheprogressofinstable
masses. Usually, unstable locations or even specific slopes can be identified. Depending on the
method,afailureforecastcanbemade.Routinesurveysallowmonitoringwithleadtimesofyearsto
monthsformidtermforecasts.
Realtime monitoring allows the most accurate prediction of landslides, within several months to
days. For example Xiaoping et al. (1996) have forecasted a slope failure at Yellow River in Gansu
Province,Chinaonthe30.January1995atwithanaccuracyofoneday!
Thefollowingchaptergivesanoverviewaboutdifferentmidandshorttermforecastmethods.The
methodsarestructuredintotwogroups.Thefirstgroupcontainsforecastmethodsbasedoninsitu
measurementsofdifferentparametersintheslope.Inthesecondgroup,methodsbasedonclimatic
conditions, are presented. All the following methods require a careful assessment of the instable
slopeinordertoplacethemeasuringdevicesatcharacteristicpoints.

Forecastsbasedoninsitumeasurements

Deformationbasedforecasts
For deformation based forecasts the soil must have a plastic behavior in order to observe any
deformationspriorfracture.
Deformationsofsoilunderaconstantloadcanbeplottedinatimevs.straindiagram(Fig.3).The
strainrate & isdefinedasthederivativeofstrain ,withrespecttotime.Intheinitialstage,known
as primary creep, the strain rate is relatively high, but slows with increasing strain. The strain rate
eventually reaches a minimum and becomes nearconstant. This is known as secondary or steady
statecreepanddepends oncreep mechanismand soilproperties.Intertiary creep,thestrainrate
increasesexponentiallyandendswithfracture(webwiki1).

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 LandslideForecastMethods

Strain
e

Fracture

primary
creep
secondary
strain
rate
secondary creep tertiary creep

Initial Load
time t

Strain rate
e
Fracture

minimun

secondary creep rate

time t

Fig.3Inthesecondarycreepstagethestrainrateisconstantandthereafterincreasesuntilfailure.

Basedonmeasurementsinthesecondarycreeprange,Saito(1965)proposedanempiricalformula
to predict the time of slope failure. The relationship between constant strain rate and rupture life
(timetofailure)wassuccessfullyappliedtoforecastlandslides:

log10 t r = 2.33 0.916 log10 & 0.59

Eq.1

tr:creeprupturelife(min),i.e.totaltimefromthebeginningofmovementuntilfailure
& :constantstrainrate(in104mm)

The relationship seems to be independent of the type of soil ortesting method. Measurements of
relativedisplacementshouldbetakencontinuously.Forecastingthetimeofslopefailureisdoneby
thefollowingprocedure:
1. Measurement of the relative displacements of a slope across tension cracks or along the
centreline,dependingonfieldconditions.
2. Determinationofthebeginningoftheunstablestateoftheslopethroughtherelative
displacementcurve.
3. Calculationoftheconstantstrainratefromtherelativedisplacementcurve.
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 LandslideForecastMethods

4. Estimationofcreeprupturelifecorrespondingtothestrainrate,usingtherelationship
betweenstrainrateandcreeprupturelife.

Saito(1969)extendedhistheorytothetertiarycreeprangeinordertoobtainmoreaccurate
forecastsforthetimeclosetofailure.Theabovementionedrelationshipwasadaptedtothe
transientstrainrate.Hepresentedagraphicalandanumericalsolution.Theempiricalformulafor
thetertiarycreeprangerelatesthetimeleftbeforefailure(trt)tothedisplacementasfollows:

tr t0
l = l 0 a log
tr t
Eq.2

l:relativedisplacementbetweentwomeasuredpoints
l0:initialdistancebetweentwomeasuredpoints
a:constant
tr:creeprupturelife(min),i.e.totaltimefromthebeginningofmovementuntilfailure
t0:timewhenmovementbegins,l=0
t:optionaltime

Theequationcontainsthreeunknown:aorl0a,tr andt0.Theremainingtimetofailure(trt)canbe
obtained with three or more points properly selected on the creep curve. The best way to have a
good estimation is to begin displacement measurements as early as possible. The nearer failure
comesthemorereliabletheforecast.Itisadvisabletoroughlyestimatetimeoffailurewithsteady
statestrainrateinthesecondarycreeprange(Saito1965)andpredictpreciselywithdatafromthe
third creep range (Saito 1969). Hayashi et al. (1988) improved the Saito (1969) prediction in the
tertiarycreeprange.

Based on large scale laboratory experiments Fukuzono (1985) presented a new method for
predicting the failure time using the inverse number of surface displacement velocity (1/v). If the
displacement velocity v at a slope surface increases over time, its inverse number (1/v) decreases.
When(1/v)approacheszero,failureoccurs.

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 LandslideForecastMethods

1/(a-1) 1/(a-1)
1 = {a (a-1)} (tr-t)
v

Inverse number of velocity 1 / v

a>
2(
co
nve
x)
a=
2(
l in e
ar )
1 <a
<2
(co
nca
ve)
Failure

t tr
time t

Fig.4TypicalfiguresforchangesoftheInversenumberofvelocityin
surfacedisplacementjustbeforethefailure.After(Fukuzono1985)

Thecurveisdescribedbyfollowingequation:

= {a( 1)} 1 (t r t ) 1
1 1

v
Eq.3

v:velocityofsurfacedisplacement
a:constant
:constant
tr:creeprupturelife(min),i.e.totaltimefromthebeginningofmovementuntilfailure
t:optionaltime

Fukuzonodistinguishesthreecases,dependingontheshapeofthegraph.Foralineargraph=2and
thefailuretimetrcanbepredictedusingtwopoints.ThistimeisequaltothetimepredictedbySaito
(1965):

t 2 (1 / v)1 t1 (1 / v) 2
tr =
(1 / v)1 (1 / v) 2
Eq.4

Inthecaseof2,thefailuretimecanbedeterminedbydifferentiatingEq.3bytandsolvingforthe
casefor1/v=0.

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 LandslideForecastMethods

d (1 / v) 1/ v
=
dt ( 1)(t r t )
Eq.5

Aroughestimationcanalsobemadebythepointatwhichthetangentlineofthecurvecrossesthe
axis of abscissa. Therefore two graphical methods are presented in Fukuzono (1985). Azimi et al.
(1988)proposedagraphicalmethodthatisequivalenttothelinearcase=2inFukuzono(1985)and
similartoSaito(1969)(seeFukuzono1990).

RoseandHungr(2007)successfullyappliedtheinversevelocitymethodinopenpitminestopredict
accuratelythreelargefailuresranginginsizefrom1to18millioncubicmetres.Theyprovideanice
discussionaboutthelimitationsoftheinversevelocitymethodandsuggestfollowinggeneralrules:

The method must not be applied in isolation, and displacement monitoring is only one
componentofacomplexprocessthatcomprisesslopestabilitymanagement.
Themethodcannotbeusedforrockslidesdominatedbybrittlefailure,andparticularcare
shouldbeexercisedwhendealingwithrelativelysmallfailuresinstrongrock.
The monitoring data must be processed to remove the effects if instrument error and
eliminaterecordsdistortedbylocalmovements.
Failure forecasting relies on the identification of consistent trends. The possibility of trend
changes,drivenbyobservableorunknownfactors,mustalwaysbekeptinmind.Monitoring
must be continued as long as possible prior to failure. The results must be constantly re
evaluatedandanyestablishedbestfitfunctionsmustberevisedinviewofthelatestdata.
Thetreatmentofcyclicchangesdependsonthemagnitudeoftheiramplitude,relativetothe
distancefromthehorizontalaxisontheinversevelocityplot.Iftheratiobetweenthesetwo
quantitiesishigh,itmaybenecessarytoassumethatthelowpointofanygivencyclemay
producesuddenrupture.
Data fitting using nonlinear inversevelocity trend lines may provide a more accurate
assessmentofsomelongertermtrends,butismorecomplex,whichmaylimitpracticaluse.
Theauthorsrecommendtheuseoflinearfits,updatedonanongoingbasistoidentifytrend
curvatureortosignaltheonsetoftrendchanges.

Voight(1988)foundamateriallawtopredictfailureunderconstantstressandtemperature.Beside
velocity, other parameters like longitudinal or shear strain, geodetic length, angle change or
cumulativeseismic(oracoustic)energyreleasecanalsobeusedasinputinhismodel.
Atanyarbitrarytime t* ,thetimetofailure( t f t* )canbepredictedusingfollowingequation:

& 1
& 1
t f t* =
* f

A( 1)
Eq.6

where:

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 LandslideForecastMethods

t f : Timeatfailure
t* : Optionaltime
&
* : Displacementrateat t*
&
tf
f
: Displacementrateat
, A : Constantsofexperience(commonly =20.3)

Voight considers an estimated displacement rate at failure. Practical estimates are made under
consideration of slope geometry, materials and groundwater conditions. Failure occurs when the
& is reached; this is not precisely the point of intersection with the time
inverse rate value of f

abscissainFukuzono(1985).Incontrast,Fukuzonoassumesthedisplacementatfailuretobeinfinite.
Therewith,thepredictedtimetofailureusingVoigthsequationisshorterandmoreconservative.

Voights model is more physically based with respect to the empirical models proposed by Saito
(1965, 1969) and provides, in suitable conditions, a very good forecast of time to failure. As a
drawback, the model is only applicable to data characterised by continuous acceleration and
constant external conditions. The model fails, or becomes less accurate, when external conditions
are not time invariant and deviations induced by seasonal variations in temperature and rainfall
regimetakeplace(CrostaandAgliardi2002).

Kawamura(1985)presentedamethodology,notonlytopredictwhenalandslideoccurs,butalsoto
characterizethetypeofmovement.Thetechniqueindicateswhetheramovingslopeisgoingtofail
orreachingastablecondition.

Anotherattempttosurveyanunstableslopeistodefinealertvelocitythresholds.CrostaandAgliardi
(2002) proposed a method to obtain alert velocity thresholds for large rockslides. The method is
based on Voights (1988) accelerating creep theory, where failure is assumed to occur at the time
corresponding to a particular rate of displacement. Velocity thresholds can be obtained and
incorporated in an emergency concept. Like (Voight 1988), this method is only applicable to cases
withinvariantexternalconditions.

Xiaopingetal.(1996)proposedaveryinterestingapproach.Insteadofperformingaclassicalstability
analysiswithforceormomentequilibrium,theirmethodanalyzesthedeformationpowerrequired
foraslopefailure.Thedeformationpowerofalandslideatanytimeisneverlargerthanatfailure
state, the so called failure power. Unfortunately, the authors do not give detailed information on
how to obtain the failure power threshold. Nevertheless, their concept can be summarized as
follows:
1. Arrange the geological survey reasonably to master the geological background and the
environmentalconditionsforalandslide.
2. Monitor systematically with various measures to obtain the real and feasible data for the
landslide deformation, abstract the valid information to control the law of active
deformationforalandslide.

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 LandslideForecastMethods

3. Calculate the deformation power and the failure power of a landslide, and check the
relativelevelbetweenthem.Meantime,considertheacousticemissionreactionstateand
themacrotracesoflandslidedeformationtojustifythedeformationphasesforalandslide
comprehensively.
4. During the monitoring of landslide deformations, either the monitoring network or the
monitoring line consists of monitoring points, which are able to react and feel the
deformationandactiveprincipleforthelocalmassesofalandsliderespectively.Therefore,it
isnecessarytoanalyseindividualpointsbyusingtheregressingmethodbasedontheirown
deformationinformation.
5. Becauseofthelocalactivetraitsintheindividualpoints,theresultsfromanalyzingindividual
points might be divergent and do not represent the deformation state of the whole
landslide. So the individual measurements have to be adapted to calculate and determine
thefailuretimeofthewholelandslide.
6. According to the two methods presented in the paper analysing with individual points
andpredictingwithallpointsfailuretimecanbeforecastedusingpolynomialregression.

AlargelandslidealongYellowRiverinGansuProvinceofChinaoccurredon30January1995.Using
the approach of Xiaoping et al. (1996), the landslide was predicted with only one day between
forecastandeffectivefailure.

TDRbaseddeformationmonitoring
Time Domain Reflectometry TDR was originally developed during the 1950 to locate and identify
cablefaultsinthetelecommunicationandpowerindustries.Lateron,theapplicationwasextended
tomeasurementsingeomaterialsandisnowwellrecognizedforsoilmoisturemeasurementinsoils.
WithfewmodificationsTDRcanalsobeusedforthemonitoringoflocalizeddeformationinrockand
soils.Thecomparablylowinstallationcostsandthepossibilitytoperformcontinuousmeasurements
makeTDRaninterestingalternativetoinclinometers.TDRiscapableofdeterminingtheexactdepth
oftheobserveddeformationzone.Somesemiquantitativestatementcanbemadeoftheamountof
movement.Theorientationcannotbedeterminedatall.AlandslidewarningsystembasedonTDR
deformation detection is not known so far. Nevertheless, a few promising examples of soil
deformationmonitoring,performedbytheCaliforniaDepartmentofTransportation(CALTRANS),are
presentedinOConnorandDowding(1999).Thuroetal.(2007)arecurrentlydevelopingaLandslide
WarningSystemandmakeuseofTDRfordeformationdetection.

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 LandslideForecastMethods

Fig.5BasicsetupofaTDRmeasuringsite.Thecoaxialcableisinstalledintoaninstableslopeand
connectedtotheTDRcabletester.Assoonasthecoaxialcableisdeformedbythemass
movementapeakcanbebeeninthereflectedsignal.Itsamplitudeisdependant
totheamountofdeformationtakingplace(Thuroetal.2007)

Porewaterpressurebasedforecasts
Beside deformations, porewater pressures can be very helpful parameters to monitor unstable
slopes.Yagiandotherscarriedoutseverallaboratoryexperiments.Forsandyslopestheyvefound
measuringporewaterpressurestobemoreeffective,thanmonitoringdeformationorstrainofthe
slopesurface(Yagietal.1985)(YagiandYatabe1987).

Watercontentbasedforecasts
In order to develop a predictive warning system for rainfallinduced slope failures, a number of
studies have focused on monitoring the porewater pressures. However, present day sensors like
tensiometers and piezometers have some limitations due to their maintenance, performance and
reliability.Porewaterpressurechangesinunsaturatedsoilsgohandinhandwithchangesinwater
content(SoilWaterCharacteristicCurve).Toharietal.(2007)carriedoutseverallaboratorytestsand
found monitoring of moisture content in the soil to be very useful for prediction of slope failures.
Moister content measuring devices like, ThetaProbe, TDR waveguides and others overcome the
disadvantages of porewater pressure sensors. Tohari et al. (2007) proposed a warning algorithm
basedonvolumetricwatercontentmeasurements(Fig6).

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 LandslideForecastMethods

Fig.6Theconceptualpredictionmethodologyforrainfallinducedslopefailures
basedonmoisturecontentmeasurements(Toharietal.2007)

1. Itiscrucialtounderstandthefailuremechanisminordertoinstallanappropriatemonitoring
system.Theuseofanumericalanalysisofsaturatedunsaturatedflowcanhelptofindthe
most appropriate monitoring locations to monitor the development of the seepage area,
whichareoftenclosetothefaceoftheslope.
2. Prior installation, it is necessary to determine the in situ soil porosity at each monitoring
point in order to calculate the values of saturated volumetric moisture content, which are
requiredtodeterminethedegreeofsaturation.
3. Thecriticaltimeforevacuationcanbedefinedasthetimerequiredforthewettingfrontto
travelfromthesensorheadtotheimperviouslayerorinitialgroundwaterlevelt1tot2.
4. Theinitiationofthesecondstageofincreaseinthemoisturecontentofthenearsurfacesoil
representsthehydrologicconditioninwhichthegroundwatertablestartstorisetowardsthe
slopesurface.
5. Thus,thecorrespondingtimet2canbedesignatedtotriggerafinalwarningagainsttheslope
failurehazard.Theextentofthetimeforevacuationwilldependonthedepthofthesensor,
withrespecttotheimperviouslayerorinitialgroundwater,aswellasontheantecedentsoil
moisturecondition.Consequently,thedepthoftheimpermeablelayerorgroundwaterlevel
must also be determined through adequate subsurface investigations to determine an
optimumdepthforinstallationofthesensorfortheeffectivepredictionoffailureinitiation.

Microseismicbasedforecasts
Whensoilisstressed,itrespondswithreorganizingitsparticlesandconsequentlyfrictiongenerates
microseismicstresswaves.Thishastheadvantagetomakepremovementstressesdetectable.Soil
particlesinclosecontacttoawaveguidegenerateanelasticwave,thesocalledacousticemission
AE, which can be detected by high sensitivity sensors. AE have also been called microseismics,
microsonics, and subaudible rock noise (SARN). These phenomena have been defined as "the
transientelasticwavesgeneratedbytherapidreleaseofenergywithinamaterial.
JurichandMiller(1987)successfullyconductedastudythatdemonstratedtheabilityofaproperly
installed AE monitoring system to detect premovement stresses in soil slopes. Increases in AE
activity were recorded at least 30 days in advance of movement. Therefore AE can be used as an
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 LandslideForecastMethods

earlywarningsystem.ThelocationofAEobservationstationsatastudysiteiscriticalforrecording
representativedatabecauseacousticemissionsmonitoringsystemsareextremelysensitive.
Atypicalacousticemissionsystemconsistsofabackfilledwaveguideinaboreholewithatransducer
fixedtothefreeend,amplifiers,dataacquisitionandprocessingequipment(Fig.7).Finegrainedsoils
(i.e.clayandsilt)generatelowAE.Evencoarsegrainedsoilsthatareconsideredasrelativelynoisy,
have a very high attenuation due to high energy loss as AE is transmitted from one particle to
another.

Transducer
Pre-amplifier Filter

Wave guide Amplifier

Cable
Backfill

Borehole
Data capture
Slip plane and processing

Fig.7Typicaldevicesofanacousticemissionsystem.After(Koustenietal.1999)

Dependingonthebackfillmaterialtwopossiblesystemscanbeformed:Passivesystemshavetobe
backfilledwithlowAEactivitymaterial(i.e.clay)sotheinstallationdoesnotintroduceanyadditional
sourcesofAEintothewaveguide.Activewaveguidesystemsareinstalledwhenthemonitoringsite
consistsofcohesivematerial.Theboreholeisthenfiledwithgranularmaterialwhichproduceshigh
AE.Acousticemissionwaveguidesindrysandsworkinarangeof500Hzupto16kHz(Koustenietal
1999).
Dixon and Spriggs (2007) developed a realtime slope monitoring system using AE to quantify pre
failureslopedeformationrates.
BesidetheseburiedsystemstherearesurfacemicroseismicmonitoringsystemsinusetodetectAE
inrockslopeswithgeophones.Movementsintheslopearelocatedbythegeophonesinafrequency
spectrumofabout10650Hz(Stewartetal.2004).

Forecastsbasedonclimaticconditions

Rainfallthresholdbasedforecasts
Compared with other methods, rainfall can be monitored with relatively low costs and therefore
rainfallthresholdsareacosteffectivemethodtoforecastlandslides.Guzzettietal.2005presenteda
worldwideliteraturereviewoflandslidetriggeringrainfallthresholds.Theylaunchedaninformative
homepagewherethethresholdscanbeviewed(webGuzzetti).Followingtheirworkissummarized:
Landslidetriggering rainfall thresholds separate events that resulted, from those which failed to
trigger landslides. First of all it must be stated, that rainfall threshold based forecasts only make
sensewhererainfallisatriggeringfactor.Mostoftheproposedthresholdsperformreasonablywell
intheregionwheretheyweredeveloped,andcannotbeexportedtoneighboringareas.Also,their
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 LandslideForecastMethods

temporal accuracy remains largely untested. Below different rainfall thresholds are classified and
somecommentsaregiven:
Empirical thresholds are obtained studying rainfall conditions which resulted in slope
failures. The main advantage of empirical rainfall thresholds lays in the fact that rainfall is
relativelysimpleandinexpensivetomeasureoverlargeareas.
Physicallybasedthresholdsattempttolinkregionalorlocalrainfallmeasurementstolocal
terraincharacteristics.Forexamplethetimeneededforthewettingfronttoreachtheslip
surface, is related to the depth of the slip surface and the permeability. Physically based
thresholds are calibrated using rainfall events for which rainfall measurements and the
locationandtimeofslopefailuresareknown.
Intensitydurationthresholdsmightbeveryhelpful,buthavealsosomedisadvantages.They
donotconsidertheantecedentmoistureconditions.Forthisreason,theyarelesssuitedto
predict the occurrence of deepseated landslides, or of slope failures triggered by low
intensity rainfall events. Further, intensityduration thresholds do not consider that
landslides can occur several hours after the end of the rainfall event, and do not take into
accountsitespecificrainfallconditions.
Normalized intensityduration thresholds implicitly consider climatic characteristic of the
areaforwhichtheyaredefined,andemphasisetheregionalizationofthethresholds,since
thecalculationtakesintoaccounttheclimaticregimesofthestudyarea.
Thresholdsconsideringtheantecedentrainfallconditionsaremostlysuitedfordeepseated
landslides. The antecedent rainfall condition thresholds require data of lower resolution
(dailyrainfalldata)whichareavailableforlongerperiods(upto120yearsinItaly).

Theforecastingphaseofmeteorologicalforecastshasimprovedconsiderablyinrecentyears.Thanks
to improving weather forecasts, landslidetriggering rainfall thresholds will play a more significant
roleindisastermanagementandbecomeanimportanttoolforedecisionmakers.

LandslideWarningSystemsbasedonRainfallThresholds
Inafewplacesoftheworldrainfallthresholdsarepartofoperationallandslidewarningsystems,in
which realtime rainfall measurements are compared with established thresholds, and when pre
establishedvaluesareexceededalarmmessagesareissued.

SanFranciscoBayregion,California
ArealtimesystemforissuingwarningoflandslidesduringmajorstormswasdevelopedfortheSan
FranciscoBayregion,California(Keeferetal.,1987).Thewarningsissuedbythesystemaccurately
predictedthetimesofactualdebrisfloweventsduringstormsandwereusedbylocalgovernments
as a basis for planning emergency response and for recommending temporary evacuation of
hazardous areas. The warning system was based upon empirical and analytical relations between
rainfall and landslide initiation, real time regional monitoring of rainfall data from telemeter rain
gauges, National Weather Service precipitation forecasts, and delineation of debris flow hazard
areas.
HongKong

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 LandslideForecastMethods

Landslides in Hong Kong are heavily dependent on the magnitude of the short period rainfall
intensity,withathresholdvalueofabout70 mm/hr.Thisrelationshipwasadoptedas thebasisof
theGovernmentsLandslideWarningSystemthathasbeeninoperationsince1984.
Japan
The occurrence of debris flows in Japan is closely related to rainfall characteristics, such as the
amount, intensity and duration. To predict the standard amount of rainfall for warning and
evacuationfromdebrisdisaster,amodelfortheoccurrenceofdebrisflowwasdeveloped,basedon
the infiltration process to surface flow. An information system for warning and evacuation was
necessary between governmental offices and inhabitants. This system was organized into three
sections: observation, analyses and management. Rainfall was measured by rain gauges and the
informationtoalocalstationwhereitwasanalyzedusingthestandardrainfallprogramsbasedon
thestaticslopestabilitymodel.Toimprovetheaccuracyofrainfallprediction,combinationsofradar
rain gauge systems (MPX) and telemetering were used in order to analyze data in realtime.
Landslide disaster prediction support system LAPSUS (Fukuzono et al.) is a software used by the
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) in Japan to provide
information about the potential for shallowlandsides and the evaluation of landslide risk. The
informationisopentothepublic.
Sofarthisistheonemostsophisticatedlandslidepredictionsystemfoundinthisliteraturereview.
YangtzeRiver,China
Aregionalwarningsystemtomonitorlandslidesandmudslideswasbuiltupandextendedalongthe
upperreachesoftheYangtzeRiverinChina.Thesystemwassetupin1991tomonitorlandslidesby
using 70 stations and employing over 300 professionals. The network protected a population of
300,000 people and had forecasted 217 landslides avoiding estimated economic losses of US$ 27
million.
RiodeJaneiro,Brazil
1996 the Rio de Janeiro Geotechnical Engineering Office (GeoRio) installed a system for warning
against landslides triggered by severe rainfall. The watch system was based on landsliderainfall
correlation and depended on confirmation from three sources of information: (i) a short term (4
hour)weatherforecast,obtainedbymeteorologicalradars,(ii)anautomatedraingaugenetworkof
30raingauges,and(iii)recordsoffailuresreportedbytheCivilDefenceBrigade.Alarmswereissued
when:(i)theraingaugenetworksoftwareindicatedthatthehourlyordailyrainfallalarmlevelwere
reached at least in three rain gauges, and the weather forecast predicted rain in the successive
hours,and(ii)whenthehourlyordailyrainfallthresholdslevelswerereachedinthreeraingauges,
andtheshorttermweatherreportindicatedthatheavyrainswasexpected.Oncetheseconditions
were reached, GeoRio contacted the Civil Defence Board of the Rio Government to assess the
situationandimplementaction(Ortigao2000)(Ortigaoetal.).

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 LandslideForecastMethods

Stateoftheartandfuturetrends
Despite remarkable progress, substantial research deficits still exist in the development and use of
early warning systems for landslides. Therefore, future research and development projects aim on
advancement of early warning capacities by improvement of scientific bases, development of new
technologiesandprototypicalimplementationofearlywarningsystems(Baehr2004).

Measuringdevices
Nowadaysandinfuturesatellitesplayanimportantroleinlandslideassessments.Newtechniques
likedifferentialGlobalPositioningSystem(dGPS)improvedtheaccuracyofdisplacementmonitoring
up to a few millimeters. Aguado et al. (2006) designed a LowCost, LowPower Galileo/GPS
PositioningSystemformonitoringlandslides.Theirresearchfocusesmainlyonelectrotechnicaland
softwarespecificconcerns.Thesystemhasanaccuracyofhorizontally(5mm+0.5ppmbaseline
length)RMSandvertically(5mm+1ppmbaselinelength)RMS(TBC).Unfortunately,nodetailed
fieldapplicationismentionedsofar.
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) are usually spaceborne instruments that emit electromagnetic
radiationandthenrecordthestrengthandtimedelayofthereturningsignaltoproduceimagesof
the ground. The elevation of the ground can be estimated using two antennas and applying
interferometry (InSAR). Consecutive couples of SAR images can be crosscorrelated to form
interferogramsrepresentingphasevariationswhichcanbedirectlyrelatedtogrounddisplacement
withinmillimeterlevelaccuracy.ClearweatherisnecessarytooperatespaceborneSAR.Therefore,
Antonello et al. (2004) developed a groundbased InSAR system, called LISA, and applied it
successfullytomonitorunstableslopes.
Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) is an analog method to Radiowave Detection and Ranging
(Radar).Similartotheradartechnology,light(laserpulses)areusedinsteadofradiowaves,therange
to an object is determined by measuring the time delay between transmission of a pulse and
detectionofthereflectedsignal.LIDARcanalsobeusedtomonitordisplacementsofinstableslopes.
Besidethesenewmethodstoobservedeformations,othermeasuringtechniqueslikemicroseismics
havethepotentialtobeusedasindicatorsforlandslidewarningsystems.

Multiparameterbasedforecasts
Thefuturetrendforwarningsystemsgoestomultiparameterbasedforecasts.Thecombinationofa
fewindependentparametershastheadvantagetomakepredictionsmorereliable.
The Turtle Mountain Warning System consists of many different measuring devices like tiltmeters,
surface wire extensometers, differential GPS hubs, series of prisms with a theodolite set up at the
Frank Slide Interpretive Centre (FSIC), crack gauges, surface microseismic sensors, downhole
microseismicsensors,aboreholethermistorstringandvibratingwirepiezometer,ameteorological
stationandSyntheticApertureRadarInterferometry(InSAR).Thresholdshavebeendefinedforthe
monitoringdevices.Specificvaluesthataretypicallysettwotothreestandarddeviationsabovethe
instrument noise and/or known seasonal thermal fluctuations of the sensors and rock mass. As
ongoing movement occurs, it may be necessary to reset the absolute thresholds. According to the
observations, three alert levels were defined and an emergency plan is in use (Froese et al. 2005,
2006,Readetal.2005).
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 LandslideForecastMethods

Baum et al. (2005) proposed a multiparameter based landslide warning system for the rail traffic
betweenSeattleandEverettinWashingtonUSA.Thesystemisbasedoncontinuousmonitoringof
precipitation, soil water content and pore pressure, combined with an empirical rainfall threshold.
Threelevelsofwarning,withsuccessivelyshorterleadtimeswereprojected.
) Advisory is the lowest level of warning and given, if field observations indicate a high
degree of soil saturation (>6080%), and therewith the material is wet enough to be
susceptibletolandslideactivity.Intheeventofprolonged,intenserainfall,shallowlandslides
arelikelyduringthislowestlevelofwarning.
) Watch is given for an "Advisory" combined with a forecast of rainfall that is sufficient to
exceedtheempiricalintensitydurationthreshold.
) Warningisthehighestlevelofwarning,givenincasethenearrealtimefielddataindicate
that actual rainfall conditions are approaching the threshold and that soil wetness and
pressureheadarehigh,sothatlandslidesarelikelyatanytime.
Other multiparameter based warning systems are in operation at the south and east coast of
EnglandanddescribedinClarketal.(1996).

WirelessSensorNetworksWSN
Manyofthewarningsystemsdescribedabovearecostly.Thereisastrongneedformobile,lowcost
equipmentthatisquicklyreadyforuse.Acombinationofdifferentlowcostsensorsandmonitoring
methodsallowsmakingwarningsystemsaffordable.
Wireless Sensor Networks WSN match these requirements quite well. WSN consist of spatially
distributed autonomous devices using sensors to cooperatively monitor physical or environmental
conditions, such as temperature, sound, vibration, pressure, motion or pollutants, at different
locations. In addition to one or more sensors, each node in a sensor network is typically equipped
with a radio transceiver or other wireless communications device, a small microcontroller, and an
energysource,usuallyabattery.Theenvisagedsizeofasinglesensornodecanvaryfromshoebox
sizednodesdowntothesizeofgrainofdust,althoughfunctioning'motes'ofgenuinemicroscopic
dimensions have yet to be created. The cost of sensor nodes is similarly variable, ranging from
hundredsofdollarstoafewcents,dependingonthesizeofthesensornetworkandthecomplexity
required of individual sensor nodes. A sensor network normally constitutes a wireless adhoc
network, meaning that each sensor supports a multihop routing algorithm (several nodes may
forwarddatapacketstothebasestation)(webwiki2).

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 LandslideForecastMethods

Fig.8SchemaofaWirelessSensorbasedLandslideEarlyWarningSystem(Arnhardtetal.2007)

SLEWS
TheSLEWSproject(Arnhardtetal.2007)investigatesthecompleteinformationchain,startingfrom
datagatheringusingwirelesssensornetworksviainformationprocessingandanalysistoinformation
retrieval. This is demonstrated for landslides and mass movements. The proposed approach pays
specialattentiontomobile,costreducedandeasydeployablemeasurementsystems,aswellasthe
modern information systems under consideration of interoperability and service orientated
architectureconcepts.TheSLEWSprojectisstillinthestageofdevelopment.

Senslide
SenslideisalowcostLandslidePredictionSystembasedonWirelessSensorNetworkWSNtechnique
(Shethetal.2007).Thesystemconsistsofsingleaxisstraingaugesconnectedtocheapnodes,each
with a CPU, battery and a wireless transmitter. Measurements are propagated to a set of base
stations.Sensors(600to900sensors/km2)makepointmeasurementsatvariouspartsoftherock,
but make no attempt at measuring the relative motion between rocks. Laboratory tests on rock
samples from the field site show linear stressstrain behaviour of the rock until there is fracture.
Based on this material relationship two prediction algorithms were developed (threshold based
prediction and distributed statistical detection algorithm). So far Senslide was tested in laboratory
environmentandfieldapplicationsareplanned.

WirelessSensorColumnscoupledwithFEMModel
Terzisetal.(2006)proposedanetworkofsensorcolumnsdeployedathillswithlandslidepotential
withthepurposeofdetectingtheearlysignalsprecedingacatastrophicevent.Eachcolumnincludes
fourtypesofsensors:geophones,straingages,porepressuretransducersandreflectometersaswell
asseismicsourcesplacedatregularintervalsoverthelengthofthecolumn.

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 LandslideForecastMethods

Fig.9TheLandslideWarningSystemisbasedonmeasurementsinthesensorcolumns.Terzisetal.(2006)

Detection is performed through a threestage algorithm: First, sensors collectively detect small
movementsconsistentwiththeformationofaslipsurfaceseparatingtheslidingpartofhillfromthe
static one. Once the sensors agree on the presence of such a surface, they conduct a distributed
votingalgorithmtoseparatethesubsetofsensorsthatmovedfromthestaticones.Inthesecond
phase, moved sensors selflocalize through a trilateration mechanism and their displacements are
calculated.Finally,thedirectionsofthedisplacements,aswellasthelocationsofthemovednodes
areusedtoestimatethepositionoftheslipsurface.
Thisinformationalongwithcollectedsoilmeasurements(e.g.soilporepressures)aresubsequently
passed to a Finite Element Model that predicts whether and when a landslide will occur. Initial
resultsfromsimulatedlandslidesindicatethataccuracyintheorderofcminthelocalizationaswell
as the slip surface estimation seems to be possible. In a next step, the system will be tested on a
varietyofhillconfigurations.

alpEWAS
Thuro et al. (2007) are currently developing an integrative 3D early warning system for alpine
instableslopes(alpEWAS).Surfacemovementswillbedetectedpunctiformandhighlyprecisewith
theGlobalNavigationSatelliteSystem(GNSS)aswellasextensivelyinalargepartofthelandslide
areathroughreflectorlesstacheometry.Thefinalaimofreflectorlesstachoemetryistodevelopa
system, able to autonomously find and select suitable natural targets for deformation monitoring.
Movements in the depth alongside boreholes will be detected by using newly adapted TDR.
Hydrostaticporepressuresandclimaticconditionswillbemeasuredaswell.Theresearchersexpect
a relatively short time (6 to 9 months) to be necessary for calibration and definition of critical
thresholds.WirelessLocalAreaNetworkWLANisusedforcommunication.

ILEWS
TheresearchprojectIntegrativeLandslidesEarlyWarningSystems(ILEWS)aimstodevelopasystem
to predict landslides and debris flows (Glade et al. 2007). The project is split into subprojects,
wherefromafewaspectsareindicatedhere.Measurementsaretakenusingseveraldifferentsensors

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 LandslideForecastMethods

inawirelesssensornetwork(webScatterWeb).Geoelectricalsurveysystemsareappliedtoexamine
thelandslidebody.
Inordertomakepredictions,themonitoringdataarefedintothreedifferentmodels:
) The Movement Analysis Model performs trend analysis of reciprocal landslide movement
rates (inclinometer, inclinometer chain, tachymetry, GPS). Depending on the way how the
movementrateschange,thecatastrophicfailureofaslopecanbepredicted.Forexample,
lineartrendsgiveanearlyindicationoftimetoacatastrophicevent.
) The continuously measured field parameters are modeled in a permanent slope stability
analysis in the Near RealTime Physically based Model. For example soil moisture and
rainfallwillbeintegratedinequationstocalculateslopestability.Ifthefactorofsafetygets
lower than a specified threshold value, preliminary warnings will are provided through
WebGISandSMSarereleased.
) IntheRealTimeModelforDebrisFlowsforecastsaremadeunderconsiderationofweather
forecasts.
DatawillbevisualizedinawebbasedgeographicalinformationsystemWebGIS.

RockNet
An interdisciplinary team of geotechnical and electrical engineers at HSR University of Applied
Science in Rapperswil, Switzerland developed a rockfall detection system called RockNet. A self
organizingwirelesssensornetworkisusedforrockfallsurveillanceandprovidesrealtimewarning.
Wirelesssensornodesareequippedwithaccelerometers,temperatureandothersensors.Thenodes
aredistributedinarockfallpronearea.Ifaspecifiednumberofnodesrecognizevibrationsanalertis
releasedandfortrafficcanbestoppedoutsidethedangerzone.

WirelessUndergroundSensorNetworksWUSN
Akyildiz and Stuntebeck (2006) presented a good overview of Wireless Underground Sensor
Networks WUSN. The current research challenges are addressed and examples of applications of
landslidemonitoring(soilmovement)andmining(highsensitivitymicrophoneforrescuepurposes).
WUSN have a potential to be used for landslide monitoring in the future. WUSN are buried and
therewith solutions for power conservation, charging methods as well as communication between
nodeshavetobefoundfirst.

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Conclusionandfutureneeds
Thisextensiveliteraturereviewleadstothefollowingmainconclusions:
) Thereisalackofappropriatewarningsystems.Morewarningsystemprototypeshavetobe
developedandimplementedinpractice.
) In the future, landslide warning systems will play an important role to avoid loss and
damages.
) Severalattemptshavebeenmadetopredictlandslidesbymonitoringdifferentparameters.
Thesemethodsaresummarizedinthisreview.Theinversevelocitymethod(Fukuzono1985,
Rose and Hungr 2007) has proven to be applicable in practice and is a relative simple
approachtopredicttimetofailure.
) Thereisatrendtowardsmultiparameterbasedwarningforecasts.Thecombinationofafew
independentindicatorshastheadvantagetomakemorereliablepredictions.
) WirelessSensorNetworksareexpectedtobethetechnologicalinnovationtowardslowcost
landslidewarningsystems.
) Landslidesareverycomplex.Inordertomakeforecasts,acarefulassessmentofthespecific
siteisessential.Theselectionofappropriatemonitoringparametersiscrucialforareliable
forecast.Appropriateparametersaresiteandtriggerspecific.Theselectionhastobedone
bygeologicalandgeotechnicalexperts.

RoleofGeotechnicalExperts
Landslidesareaverycomplexphenomenonandcontrolledbymanyvariablesitespecificconditions.
This makes it impossible to have an overall technique to predict landslides. Therefore, warning
systems have to be adapted to local conditions. Geotechnical experts are required to select the
appropriate indicators. To make the systems applicable to different sites, the sensors should be
scalableandalertingalgorithmshavetobeadjustable.

Selectionofappropriatemonitoringparameter
Deformationmeasurementsasindicatorforanemerginglandslidecanbeveryuseful.However,they
require knowledge of the deformation behavior of the material. Depending on the material
properties (e.g. rock or soil, porepressures, water content, permeability, temperature),
deformationsforagivenstressstatecanvarybyseveralmagnitudes.
Soils with a plastic behavior can be conveniently surveyed by displacement observation. Stiff
materials experience relatively small deformations compared to the load. According deformation
measurements are challenging. Special attention has to be paid to brittle materials, where
deformation prior fracture is very small. For brittle materials other indicators (e.g. porewater
pressure,watercontent,acousticemission)mightbemoreuseful.
Intensive rainfall has a more significant influence near the slope surface. Monitoring rainfall for
landslide prediction makes often more sense, if the expected landslide is shallow rather than for
deep seated slip surfaces. Nevertheless, karsts can act as a direct link between surface conditions
anddeeperlayers.

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 LandslideForecastMethods

Nextstepstowardsreliableforecasts
A major outcome of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction was the
recommendationofearly warningsystemsforlossreduction.AsmentionedintheReportonEarly
WarningCapabilitiesforGeologicalHazardsoftheUnitedNations(Hamilton1997)andreiteratedin
theUNGlobalSurveyofEarlyWarningSystems(UN2006),thereisstillalackofappropriatewarning
systems for landslides. Warning systems should be affordable, especially for third world countries
whosufferthemostunderthesehazards.Untiltoday,suchsystemsdonotexist(Baehr2004).
Severalattemptshavebeenmadetopredictlandslides.Currentlyresearchteamsdevelopcomplete
landslidewarningsystemsfrommeasurementtoalarmrelease.ManyattemptsmakeuseofWireless
SensorNetworksWSN(Arnhardtetal.2007,Shethetal.2007,Terzisetal.2006,Thuroetal.2007,
Gladeetal.2007).Mostofthesesystemsarestillunderdevelopmentandneedtobetestedinthe
field. Nevertheless, there is a strong need in implementation and building more warning system
prototypesindifferentpartsoftheworldtomakelandslidehazardspredictableandhelpustolive
withnaturalhazards.

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 LandslideForecastMethods

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