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 October 16-29, 2017 Contents Volume 179 Number 20

WinnerNeal
Grand 2016 AVIATIONWEEK
& S PA C E T E C H N O L O G Y
Winner 2017

50
Digital Extras Access exclusive How John Slattery
online features from articles and Domnhal Slattery
accompanied by this icon. discovered their love
of aviation and
7 Feedback reached the peaks of the industry.
8 Whos Where
10-12 First Take
14 Up Front
15 Going Concerns
16 Inside Business Aviation
17 Airline Intel
18 Leading Edge
19 Washington Outlook
64 Classified
65 Contact Us
65 Aerospace Calendar

TECHNOLOGY COMMERCIAL AVIATION BUSINESS AVIATION

20 Boeing bets on Aurora Flight
Sciences to help devise innovative
ideas for new products
22 Startup Zunum Aero aims to
rebuild regional aviation with
hybrid-electric commuter aircraft
24 Aurora acquistion gives Boeing
pole position in initial subsonic
X-plane risk-reduction contracts
28 Brexit is just one issue facing UK
low-cost carriers, as Monarch
Airlines collapse indicates
25
30 NBAA show in Las Vegas was
subdued, but improving market
spurs undercurrent of activity
30 Dassault Falcon5X development
faces another setback with Safran
Silvercrest engine problems
BIOFUELS
32 Glacial pace of sustainable fuel
certification and production
threatens IATA emissions targets

25 GoFly competition to develop a DEFENSE

personal air vehicle could be 33 U.S. Army prioritzes development
aviations next great leap of next-gen missiles, combat
ground vehicles and rotorcraft
BUSINESS NASA
34 South Koreas KF-X fighter grows
26 Aerospace mergers and acquistions 50 Brothers at the top: The Slatterys in development with plans for two-
have become harder to do, but divergent paths brought them seat version, European weapons
there is no deal letup in sight both to aviation leadership posts
ROTORCRAFT
36 Rapid growth of offshore wind
ON THE COVER farms generates new and
Aurora Flight Sciences hopes its planned acquisition by Boeing expanding market for helicopters
will help move its innovations into production, including the
record-holding Orion long-endurance UAV. Graham Warwicks 37 Safrans new Aneto dual-use engine
report begins on page 20. Aurora Flight Sciences photo by Karen family will be an alternative for
Dillon. Also in this issue: SpaceX gambles on the BFR (page 54), the Leonardo AW189 super-medium
Slattery brothers paths to the top (page 50), U.S. missile defense
advances (page 58), and Seouls KF-X fighter keeps growing (page 38 Airbus begins flight trials of a new
34). Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it sensor that could pave the way for
at AviationWeek.com/awst and on our app. fully autonomous helo landings

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 3


20
39 Bell Helicopters next-gen V-280
Valor tiltrotor prepares to take
to the air within weeks
CONNECTED AEROSPACE
40 High-bandwidth connectivity within
and between aircraft and ground
drives need for sensor advances
42 Inight entertainment and
connectivity systems brace
for cybersecurity threats
AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
43 Airservices Australia looks to
Aireons space-based ADS-B as
next step in ATC surveillance
46 Extended-arrival management
trials in Europe demonstrate
benets for airliner fuel efciency
SAFETY
47 The FAA and industry take new
approaches to solving stubborn
problem of runway incursions
SPACE
54 SpaceX plans to scrap its Falcon
rocket and Dragon capsule in quest
to expand human activities to Mars
55 Japan climbs technological peak in
developing new rst-stage engine
for forthcoming H3 launch vehicle
33
4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017
56 Chinese engineers blame Long
March 5 failure on its engine,
not shared by other launchers
MISSILE DEFENSE
58 Raytheon pitches its Standard
Missile-3 interceptor as
candidate to defeat ICBMs
59 Anatomy of the Ground-Based
Interceptor, which is designed to
destroy ballistic missiles in space
60 Production gap looms for U.S.
kill vehicles as Raytheon Space
Factory winds down its work
54
61 A close-up look at the Exoatmos-
pheric Kill Vehicle, deployed by
the Ground-Based Interceptor
62 Boeing, Lockheed Martin and
Raytheon rally to develop the
next-gen Multi-Object Kill Vehicle
VIEWPOINT
66 Boeings complaint against
Bombardier is really about
China and its aircraft industry
Step INSIDE
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6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst

TREDDING CAUTIOUSLY
As the captain of a Boeing 787, Tire
Flap (Sept. 18-Oct. 1, p. 37) about Jet-
stars 787 tire failure, interested me. I
believe the Australian Transport Safe-
ty Bureau (ATSB) may have missed
a key factor in its analysisunneces-
sary excessive stress placed on tires
by inappropriate pilot technique.
On nearly every trip, I now see
pilots taxiing airplanes and squaring
their turns for no reasoni.e., crank-
ing the tiller and turning with little or
no forward motion. This action places
undue stress on tires and can lead to
failureespecially on multi-truck-
axle aircraft such as Boeing 757s up
through 787s.
About 10 years ago, as a 767 co-
pilot, I taxied out at an airport in
Madrid. We were heavy400,000
lb.+and it was a hot day with a very
long taxi to the runway. The captain,
for whatever reason, made every turn
a perfect right angle, to the point that
the relief pilot and I thought he might
miss the turn onto the runway.
After takeof, the tower called us
and said we had left part of a tire on
the runway. I called back to our main-
tenance crew who quickly picked up
the pieces. They warned us we had left
a complete tire tread behind.
Unlike the Jetstar incident, we were
lucky. On arrival in Atlanta, amazingly,
the tire was still dangerously infated.
It looked somewhat comical, totally
white with exposed cloth like a white
donut with the tread completely gone.
Even more astonishing, there was no
damage to the brake lines or faps.
I have no doubt that our captains
turn technique caused the failure by
overstressing the tire.
Since I saw no mention of this
in the article, I wonder if Michelin
and the ATSB might be too quick to
blame chevrons and grooved runways
instead of watching for this currently
fashionable and totally inappropriate
pilot technique now being performed
at nearly any busy airport.
Capt. John B. McClanahan
FAYETTEVILLE, GEORGIA
FAVORED-SON STATUS?
Boeing should stop looking to the
government to fght its battles (Sept.
18-Oct. 1, p. 34).
In the 1970s, 80s and 90s Boeing
relied on U.S. authorities as it tried
to counter, respectively, Airbuss ad-
vances in supersonic transport, twin-
AviationWeek.com/awst
Feedback
engine aircraft capable of crossing
the Atlantic and twin-engine aircraft
capable of crossing the Pacifc. Until,
of course, the U.S. developed its own
versions of such advanceswhere-
upon such aircraft were deemed safe.
When Airbus won the competition
for the U.S. Air Force tanker contract,
Boeing whined to the government
and, lo and behold, the contract was
found to be faulty, necessitating a new
competition. The outcome the second
time around favored you know who.
Now Canadas Bombardier has
an efcient, small 100-seat aircraft
whereas Boeing does not, so yet again
the U.S. government steps in with
draconian trade duties.
Note that state aid does not neces-
sarily mean money given outright.
Finbar Constant
CORK, IRELAND
CANADIAN CONSTERNATION
DELTA AIR LINES
Im disgusted that Boeing has
decided to play politics instead of
focusing on competing with Bombar-
dier on technical merits. By taking
advantage of the political climate
in Washington, Boeing is not only
jeopardizing thousands of Canadian
jobs, but thousands in the UK and
even the U.S.
Boeing benefts from decades of
generous U.S. subsidiesdirectly
and indirectlyvia its defense activi-
ties, which have allowed it to develop
technologies for its commercial
aircraft.
The Canadian government should
suspend all Boeing contracts and
move them to other qualifed sup-
pliers, Canadian or otherwise. And
ban Boeing from participating in any
procurement for the duration of this
dispute.
Jeremy Laliberte, Director of Aerospace,
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
Dept., Carleton University
OTTAWA, ONTARIO
AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 7
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Aviation Week & Space Technology, 1911
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F-35 REMAINS CONTROVERSIAL
Could a more scathing indictment of
the F-35 program be written than ex-
pressed in such a matter-of-fact manner
in the frst paragraph of Final Stretch
(Sept. 18-Oct. 1, p. 55)? After $60 billion
and more than 16 years, the F-35 is still
not capable of combat and wont be for
at least another year.
In the 16+ years the F-35 has been
in development, all the assumptions
regarding the need for it have failed
to materialize. The strategic threats
remain the same (Russia and China),
the likelihood of use against those
countries remains the same, and the
probable utility of the F-35 remains the
same (practically nil in all cases). For
less than a quarter of the $60 billion, we
could have developed a family of smart
strike weapons that would have put at
risk all ground targets (most warplanes
spend the majority of their existence as
ground targets) within a thousand miles
of launch.
Instead, we are exploring new gen-
erations of bombers and fghters whose
only certain features will be even longer
development times, expense and even
less utility than the F-35.
Jonathan Penn
ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN
ACCOLADES FOR ALCOR, PERLAN 2
Soaring Ambitions (Sept. 18-Oct. 1,
p. 47) is a compelling read, but I ques-
tion the statement: Perlan 2 is the frst
glider with a pressurized cockpit.
Bob Lamson, a Boeing engineer well-
known on the Northwest glider scene,
included a pressurized cockpit in his
innovative, home-built Alcor glider 40
years ago.
Other innovations, such as a pres-
surized cockpit (a frst for a sailplane)
and solar heater, keep the Alcors pilot
comfortable at high altitudes. Lamson
few the experimental sailplane recre-
ationally for years. It is now in a place
of honor at Seattles Museum of Flight.
Merle Hanley
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON
(The Alcor was the frst sailplane devel-
oped with a pressurized cockpit, but the
Perlan 2 is the frst of its type to have ac-
tively used pressurization to successfully
achieve high-altitude operationEd.)
 Whos Where
T
he Aerospace Industries Associa-
tion has named Eric K. Fanning
president and chief executive
ofcer efective Jan. 1, 2018. Fanning
had been most recently U.S. Army
secretary. Prior to that he served as
chief of staf to the Defense secretary,
acting secretary of the Air Force and
deputy under secretary and deputy
chief management ofcer of the Navy.
He is the only person to have held se-
nior appointments in all three military
departments and the Ofce of the Sec-
retary of Defense.
Northrop Grumman has promoted
Kathy J. Warden to president and
chief operating ofcer, efective Jan. 1,
2018, from corporate vice president
and president of mission systems. In
her new role, she will oversee the in-
tegration of the Orbital ATK business.
The board of directors also elected
Mark A. Caylor corporate vice
president and president of mission
systems, Shawn N. Purvis corporate
vice president and president of enter-
prise services, and Lesley A. Kalan
corporate vice president of govern-
ment relations, all efective Jan. 1.
Warden and Kalan succeed Gloria A.
Flach and Sid Ashworth, respectively,
who are retiring.
Maurita Sutedja (see photos) has
been appointed vice president of in-
vestor relations for Boeing, succeeding
Troy Lahr, who has been appointed
chief fnancial ofcer of Boeings Au-
tonomous Systems business.
Lufthansas supervisory board has
elected Karl-Ludwig Kley as the new
chairman, replacing Wolfgang Mayrhu-
ber, who has resigned. Kley joined the
board in 2013 and was Lufthansa chief
fnancial ofcer in 1998-2006.
Patrick Prefontaine has been ap-
pointed chief commercial ofcer of
Black Swan Avionics, which has devel-
oped, in partnership with Panasonic
and others, in-seat interactive technol-
ogy, portals and apps, crew applica-
tions and data resource management
for LEVEL, International Airlines
Groups new long-haul, low-cost airline.
Stephen C. Hedger, a former U.S.
Defense Department assistant secre-
tary, has joined Rheinmetall Group as
senior vice president of corporate de-
velopment for the U.S., a new position.
Hedger last served as chief of staf to
8 AViATioN WEEK & SPACE TECHNoLoGy/oCToBER 16-29, 2017
Maurita Sutedja
former Deputy Defense Secre-
tary Robert Work.
Asia Satellite Telecommuni-
cations Co. Ltd. (AsiaSat) has
named Saphina Ho (see photo)
as general counsel. She suc-
ceeds Catherine Chang. Prior
to joining AsiaSat, Ho was as-
sistant general counsel of Pac-
net Global and also worked for
New World Mobility and Global
One as an in-house lawyer.
Bristow Group has appointed
oil and gas industry veteran
Gaurdie Banister Jr. to its
board of directors. Bruce H.
Stover and David C. Gompert
will step down from the board
in March 2018.
Safran Nacelles has named
Cedric Hale (see photo) as
human resources director. He
had been human resources
director since 2011 at FAMAT,
a joint venture between Safran
Aircraft Engines and General
Electric.
Damon Bowden has been
promoted to vice president
of global sales and business
development for AerSale, a
supplier of midlife aircraft,
engines, used serviceable ma-
terial, and maintenance repair
and overhaul services. Bowden
will be based in Cardif, Wales,
and will be tasked with helping
AerSale to grow in the avia-
tion aftermarket in Europe,
the Middle East, Africa and
the Asia-Pacifc region.
British satellite company
Earth-i has made a range of
new senior appointments: John
Linwood as chief technology
ofcer; Chetan Pradhan as
head of institutional engage-
ment; Nico V. Spyropoulos as
head of strategic engagement
for Europe, the Middle East
and Africa; Gary Crowley as
satellite operations manager;
and Natasha Hyde as digital
marketing manager.
Michael George has been promoted
to chief operating ofcer and Sea-
mus Flatley has been hired as vice
president of business development at
IOMAX. George joined the company as
To submit information for the
Whos Where column, send Word
or attached text files (no PDFs) and
photos to: whoswhere@aviationweek.com
For additional information on
companies and individuals listed in
this column, please refer to the
Aviation Week Intelligence Network
at AviationWeek.com/awin For
information on ordering, telephone
U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or
+1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.
chief administrative ofcer in
Troy Lahr 2014. Flatley had been govern-
ment services group president
at LINXX Global Solutions.
Wilma Allan (see photo) has
been appointed chief fnance
ofcer for London City Aiport.
Allan has over 20 years experi-
ence in fnance, procurement,
systems and IT management
Saphina Ho and most recently was chief
fnancial ofcer for Govia
Thameslink Railway.
Air New Zealand has named
Jef McDowall chief fnancial
ofcer efective Jan. 1, 2018,
replacing Rob McDonald, who
is leaving the carrier. McDow-
Cedric Hale
all is currently group general
manager for corporate fnance.
Elena Avila (see photo) has
been promoted by Amadeus to
executive vice president and
head of airlines for the Ameri-
cas from global head of airline
strategy.
VSE Aviation has hired
Wilma Allan Rishiraj Singh (see photo) as
senior vice preseident of inter-
national business development.
Singh spent 12 years with Hon-
eywell Aerospace, most recent-
ly as vice president of defense
and space international for Eu-
rope, the Middle East, Africa,
India and Latin America.
Elena Avila
Cambodian carrier Bassaka
Air has named a new executive
team including Mark Thibault
as CEO, Loon Weng Cheun
as chief operations ofcer and
Andrew Stephen as chief
commercial ofcer.
Rishiraj Singh HONORS & ELECTIONS
Michael Kerkloh, CEO and
president of Munich Airport, has been
voted the 2017 Travel Industry Man-
ager of the Year by the Travel Industry
Club. The award was presented to
Kerkloh at a gala event in Cologne, Ger-
many, in September. c
AviationWeek.com/awst
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First Take
DEFENSE
Scaled Composites has fown its lat-
est experimental aircraft, the Model
401, for an unidentifed proprietary
customer to demonstrate low-cost
manufacturing techniques. Scaled
has built two of the Mach 0.6 aircraft,
powered by a 3,045-lb.-thrust Pratt &
Whitney Canada JT15D-15D.
Canada has formally expressed
interest in buying used F-18A/B
fghters from Australia instead of
new F/A-18E/Fs from Boeing amid
a deepening trade dispute. The U.S.
proposes imposing duties of almost
300% on Bombardier C Series imports
in response to Boeing charges of price-
dumping (page 14).
Boeing is to acquire Aurora Flight
Sciences, a privately held specialist
in unmanned aircraft, autonomous
systems and electric propulsion that
also supplies composite aerostructures
to Bell Helicopter, Sikorsky, Northrop
Grumman and others (page 20).
Belgium, as expected, has formally
rejected a French ofer of a closer
defense partnership based on select-
ing the Dassault Rafale to replace the
F-16. Just two aircraft are left in the
running: the Eurofghter Typhoon and
Lockheed Martin F-35.
BAE Systems will cut 1,900 jobs
in the UK1,400 coming from its
aerospace-aligned Military Air and
Information division as it cuts Typhoon
and Hawk production amid uncertain
ordersand realigns into four divi-
sions: Air, Land, Maritime and Applied
Intelligence.
Russias new Beriev A-100 airborne
10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017
For the latest, go to AviationWeek.com
SCALED COMPOSITES
early warning aircraft is set to fy by
year-end, with deliveries to begin in
2020. Dubbed Premier, the A-100 has a
dual-mode radar in a rotodome above
the fuselage of a modernized Ilyushin
Il-76MD-90 airlifter.
The proposed $15 billion sale to
Saudi Arabia of Lockheed Martin
Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense
systems, which includes up to 44
launchers and 360 missiles plus seven
Raytheon TPY-2 radars, comes hard
on the heels of Riyadh agreeing to buy
Russias S-400 Triumf mobile surface-
to-air missile system.
Aerojet Rocketdyne is to ground-
demonstrate a turbine-based com-
bined cycle engine that could power a
reusable hypersonic aircraft from take-
of to beyond Mach 5 under DARPAs
Advanced Full-Range Engine program.
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
French accident investigator BEA
has recovered from Greenland parts
of an Engine Alliance GP7200 that
failed on an Air France Airbus A380
BEA
en route from Paris to Los Angeles on
Sept. 30. The aircraft made an emer-
gency landing in Goose Bay, Newfound-
land, after the fan and inlet detached.
Boeing-backed startup Zunum
Aeros frst product is to be a 12-seat
commuter aircraft with hybrid-electric
ducted-fan propulsion and operating
costs 20-30% those of similar-sized
turboprops. Certifcation is planned for
2022 (page 22).
In its Oct. 3 fnal report on the huge
underwater search for the Malaysia
Airlines Boeing 777-200ER that disap-
peared in 2014, the Australian Trans-
port Safety Bureau says it is almost
inconceivable and certainly societally
unacceptable that what happened to
Flight MH370 remains unknown.
UK leisure airline Monarch Airways
ceased trading on Oct. 2, blaming the
impact of terrorism and political un-
rest on tourist trafc to Egypt, Tunisia
and Turkey. Analysts say Monarch was
unable to cut costs to compete with
rivals such as Ryanair (page 28).
SAFRAN
Safran has inaugurated a ground
testbed for a full-scale counter-
rotating open-rotor engine in Istres,
France, marking key progress in the
European-funded technology program.
The 22,000-lb.-thrust demonstrator
engine began running in May.
BUSINESS AVIATION
Development of Dassaults Falcon
5X business jet, already slowed four
years by engine problems, has been
hit with another delay after Safran
AviationWeek.com/awst
 Singapore Oct 31- Nov 2, 2017
SINGAPORE EXPO CONVENTION AND EXHIBITION CENTRE

N E W I N 2 0 17

Nose to Tail
Coverage
MRO Asia-Pacifc is THE leading MRO event in this region. Register by
We bring the entire commercial aerospace industry together October 30,
to discuss the latest issues on local and global levels. Hear for Free Entrance
from operators and their service providers on concerns, to the
opportunities and plans for future growth in Asia-Pacifc! Exhibition Hall!

Connect with Inspiring Speakers

Andrew Hewitt Chye Kiat Ang Lee Brough Ajarin Cyrille Schwob
Head of Engineering EVP Aircraft Manufacturing Pattanapanchai Head of Research
Contracts & Leasing, Maintenance and Executive, Deputy Secretary & Technology
Air New Zealand Modifcation Fan Blade Facility, General, Thailand Development APAC,
Chairman, 2017 MRO ST Aerospace Rolls-Royce Singapore Board of Investment Airbus Singapore
Asia-Pacic Conference

Ashwani Sharma Ravinder Pal Randy Tinseth Ian Wolfe Edward YEO
VP Engineering and Singh Vice President, Senior Advisor Head of Continuing
Quality Manager, Chief Information Marketing, Boeing Engineering and Airworthiness,
Air Costa Offcer, TATA SIA Commercial Airplanes Fleet Management CAAS
Airlines Cebu Pacifc Air

mroasia.aviationweek.com
First Take
Business Aviation: Still Down, But Looking Up
1,200
experienced compressor problems Forecast
Fore
Forecas
castt
during high-altitude, low-speed ight
testing of its Silvercrest turbofan 1,000
(page 30).
Very-High-Speed-
800 Ultra-Long-Range
The commercial and parapublic

Aircraft Units
Ultra-Long-Range
market will need nearly 22,000 new Long-Range
helicopters over the next 20 years, 600
Large
worth 125 billion ($148 billion) in new
deliveries, says Airbus in its rst public 400 Medium-Large
long-term forecast. After declining 35% Medium
in 2012-16, the market stabilized in 2017, Light-Medium
200
the company says (page 36).
Light
Very Light
Leonardos AW189 super-medium 0
helicopter will be the first applica-
00

04

08

12

16

20

24

27
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

tion for Safrans 2,500-3,000-shp Aneto
turboshaft family. Leonardo plans to
certify an AW189K derivative with
2,500-shp Aneto-1K engines by the end
of 2018 (page 37).
Boeing is sponsoring a $2 million
competition to develop a safe, viable
personal air vehicle, with a y-of in
2019. The GoFly Prize will be awarded
for an everyone personal ying device
capable of being own by anyone at any
time (page 25).
SPACE
20
~8,300 Aircraft in 2017-27
Source: Honeywell
Source: Honeywell
As the anticipated recovery slips to 2019, Honeywells 10-year business-
aviation forecast has contracted again, declining to about 8,300
deliveries worth $264 billion over 2017-27, down 300 aircraft from
a year earlier (page 30).
in one of the two YF-77 hydrogen- ates (MDA) on Oct. 5 completed its
burning engines of the core rst stage acquisition of DigitalGlobe, renam-
(page 56). ing the combined company Maxar
Technologies, with its senior leadership
MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associ- drawn from both.

After more than two decades, U.S. 55 YEARS AGO

Vice President Mike Pence revived
the National Space Council on Oct. 5
and requested 45-day reviews on shift-
ing NASA human spaceight policy
toward cislunar space, regulatory
changes to help private space com-
panies and devising a space strategic
framework.
The U.S. Air Force has issued a re-
quest for proposals for co-investment
in development of up to three next-
generation launch vehicles to replace
the Russian RD-180-powered Lockheed
Martin Atlas V for national security
space launches beginning in 2022.
Concerned about potential delays of
two new U.S. commercial space taxis,
NASA is to buy three more Russian
Soyuz rides for International Space
Station crew ferry ights through the
fall of 2019.
The failure of Chinas largest space
launcher, the Long March 5, on its
second ight was found to have been
caused by a manufacturing defect
IN AVIATION WEEK
The Cuban Missile Crisis began on
Oct. 14, 1962, when a U.S. U-2 recon-
naissance aircraft took pictures over
Cuba that revealed construction sites
for medium- and intermediate-range
Soviet missiles. Six days later, Presi-
dent John F. Kennedy ordered a naval
quarantine of Cuba to prevent ships
from the Soviet Union from deliver-
ing more missiles, triggering a tense
standoff between the two superpowers
and fears of a nuclear war. Aviation
Week covered the crisis in a nine-
page report in its Oct. 29 edition, and
Editor-in-Chief Robert Hotz applauded
Kennedys long overdue move in an
accompanying editorial. Hotz warned
that the world must not be inundated by a flood of ancient barbarity cloaked
in the modern political dogma of communism. The crisis ended after 13 days,
when the Soviets agreed to dismantle the missiles and remove them from
Cuba. The magazines Nov. 5 covered featured a photo of a Soviet missile base
150 mi. east of Havana taken by a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft.
Read the Oct. 29, 1962, and Nov. 5, 1962, editions of Aviation Week
and every other issue back to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst

 COMMERCIAL | BUSINESS | HELICOPTERS | MILITARY

NEWLY RELEASED!

2018
FLEET & MRO
FORECAST
Data Now Available

Predicting Market
Opportunity Simplied
With Aviation Week Networks forecasting tools youll have
ngertip access to:
Fleet, trends, and projections: Segmented by aircraft
and engine category and families, region, and operator
Competition: A market share predictive view by
manufacturer, operator, and MRO
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and type
With this suite of analytical tools, market summaries, and
custom report services, seizing the future rst has never
been easier.

For more information on Aviation Week Networks

2018 Fleet & MRO Forecasts

go to pages.aviationweek.com/2018forecast
or call 866.857.0148 or +1.847.763.9147
 Up Front By Richard Aboulaa
Contributing columnist
Richard Aboulaa is
vice president of analysis
at Teal Group. He is
based in Washington.

COMMENTARY comes to $4.5 billion in duties for this

deal, a seemingly arbitrary number.

Unilateral For jetliner markets, there are two

likely consequences of the C Series
case. First, since other countries will

Consequences see it as a political outcome, they will

retaliate, either through multilat-
eral institutions such as the WTO or
Will U.S. rulings unravel years of through their own national barriers.
Since it is relatively easy to prove
trade advances in commercial aviation? that a jet was subsidized (by one
countrys criteria, without any multilat-

B ombardiers C Series has had a rough few weeks. The U.S.

Commerce Department in September ruled that the 75-air-
craft CS100 sale to Delta Air Lines was subsidized enough to
eral adjudication) pretty much anyone
would be able to keep competing jets
out of their home markets. In this way,
decades of progress toward free trade
warrant a 220% countervailing duty on all C Series jets imported in jetliners could be undone in a few
into the U.S. Then, in early October, Commerce also ruled that an years.
The U.S., and in particular Boeing,
additional 80% anti-dumping enjoy an enormous surplus in com-
duty was warranted. Decades of progress mercial aerospace trade. Over 80% of
toward free trade Boeing jetliners go to export end users.
Boeing, which initiated this trade in jetliners could be The 737-7, the only Boeing jet that
complaint earlier this year, now faces competes in any way with the C Series,
negative consequences in the Cana- undone in a few years. has been ordered by three customers.
dian and UK defense markets. It also Ironically, two are Canadian. Canada
faces negative consequences from U.S. will be able to use its own unilateral
airlines, not only Delta, but also Spirit trade actions to kill a competing plane.
Airlines, JetBlue Airways and others. Alternatively, Canada could take the
But the greatest potential self-inicted high road and go through the WTO,
damage to Boeing might result from which may then nd that the Com-
changes in global jetliner trade rules. LARRY W. SMITH/GETTYIMAGES merce duties violated ATCA, thereby
First, the jetliner markets strong The Commerce ruling represents an authorizing Canada to retaliate.
growth in recent decades has been extension of an America First trade Second, ATCA and other multilat-
aided by a remarkable multilateral agenda. The Trump administration eral trade agreements, such as the
treaty created in 1980, the Agreement is increasingly relying on unilateral Capetown Convention, have played a
on Trade in Civil Aircraft (ATCA). trade actions instead of multilateral strong role in promoting the rise of
Originally a component of the General negotiations. According to Chad Bown third-party nancing, which in turn
Agreement On Tarifs And Trade of the Peterson Institute for Interna- plays a role in the majority of jetliner
(GATT) and now part of the World tional Economics, if the administration purchases.
Trade Organization (WTO), ATCA follows through on all of its proposed The Commerce ruling means that
aimed to eliminate all customs duties trade actions, the share of U.S. im- for the rst time, a jetliner owned by
and other charges of any kind on ports subject to unilateral restrictions a lessor or other nancier could not
commercial jetliners. This 10-page would rise to 7.4% of the total from be sold or leased into a key market
document has greatly reduced trade 3.8% in 2016. without onerous duties. Since this uni-
barriers between signatories, giving Commerces C Series ruling might lateral trade action could be followed
airlines freedom to select their jets. be rendered moot by February, when by similar actions with other jets and
ATCA is why Air France has scores the U.S. International Trade Commis- in other countries, there is likely to be
of Boeing 777s and why Airbus has a sion (ITC) is set to rule on whether a chill in jetliner nance markets, with
strong U.S. customer base. The accord Boeing was actually damaged by Bom- additional risk premiums attached to
has encouraged innovation and tech- bardiers actions. But many believe nance deals.
nology development, since airframers the level of Commerces duties is as It is hard to see how this possible
need to compete globally rather than politicized as the trade complaint itself. change in jetliner nance terms would
rely on protected home markets. The combined duties are nearly twice be to Boeings advantage. Then again,
ATCA does allow for trade com- Boeings request of combined 160% it is hard to see how any of the negative
plaints, but in a multilateral context. countervailing/anti-dumping duties. second-order efects from Boeings
Boeings Commerce Department Assuming Boeing is correct and Delta complaint would not greatly outweigh
complaint is a unilateral one and is paid $20 million per jet, there is now a any protection it would get from a
part of a broader political trend. $60 million duty on each aircraft. That small perceived competitor. c

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst

 Going Concerns
commentAry
Cyber Insecurities
A new regulation is about to hit the U.S. defense
industrial base, which may not be ready
P resident Donald Trump seems to be on a tear lately, cutting
and rolling back federal regulations, but major new red tape
is about to swamp the aerospace and defense industry, and for
good reasons.
Northrop GrummaN
Indeed, many companiesespecial-
ly smaller suppliersprobably are not
ready, many consultants say, and soon
the changes could afect their business
prospects. Failure to comply could
potentially end existing contracts with
the Defense Department and prohibit
the ability to bid on future contracts,
say experts at DXC, the new IT ser-
vices provider formed this year from
the old Computer Sciences Corp. and
Hewlett Packard Enterprise.
The new regulation addresses
cybersecurity, or the lack thereof, in
the defense industrial base. Long a
shortcoming of contractors across the
U.S.think National Security Agency
spying tools being pilfered, or having
to redesign parts of the uber-expensive
F-35 Joint Strike Fighter due to digital
leakagecybersecurity is now being
pushed down into the supply chain
by a new Defense Federal Acquisition
Regulation Supplement (DFARS).
The new rule is DFARS 252.204.
7012, Safeguarding Covered Defense
Information and Cyber Incident Re-
porting. It obligates defense industry
AviationWeek.com/awst
suppliers to comply with regulations
for protecting unclassifed information,
as defned in National Institute of Stan-
dards and Technology (NIST) Special
Publication 800-171.
In a nutshell, by Dec. 31 defense con-
tractors have to complete a Cyberse-
curity Compliance Readiness Assess-
ment, which includes a gap analysis of
shortfalls, a plan of action with identif-
able milestones and implementation of
a system security plan.
In turn, they must meet the 110 secu-
rity control requirements identifed in
NIST SP 800-171, according to experts
at Exostar, which started as an A&D
cooperative among primes to help with
compliance and services. This does
not mean their cyberdefenses must
be impenetrable by the start of 2018,
but it does mean there must be a real
blueprint for getting there. Among
other provisions, contractors also have
to start reporting incidents to the
Pentagon within 30 days.
Exostar says it is already seeing fs-
cal 2018 defense contracts written with
the new standards embedded. DXC
AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 15
By Michael Bruno
Michael Bruno is
Senior Business Editor
Join the conversation at:
AviationWeek.com/GoingConcerns
michael.bruno@aviationweek.com
wonders aloud whether the rulemak-
ing will make its way into interna-
tional deals, as proactive primes could
require it of foreign suppliers.
The target of the new rule is suppli-
ers, but it is prime contractors that the
Pentagon will hold accountable, and
thus they will be the enforcers. Not
surprisingly, primes are trying to make
sure their suppliers act accordingly.
Northrop Grumman and the National
Defense Industrial Association are
hosting a workshop Nov. 1, and DXC
and Exostar had webinars in Septem-
ber, now available on their websites,
along with white papers on the topics.
Weaknesses with DFARS compli-
ance in a prime contractors supply
chain will potentially introduce vulner-
abilities up the supply chain and back
to the prime contractor, DXC says. If
failure to protect controlled unclassi-
fed information or covered defense
information occurs, accountability may
fall back to the prime contractor.
The biggest issue surrounding the
new requirement probably is in under-
standing what information is covered
by the DFARS and what is exempt.
Meanwhile, it is best to take three
seemingly simple but enormous steps:
Protect your content, know your users,
and track everything.
The task is daunting, especially for
smaller suppliers without the resourc-
es, experience or expertise to imple-
ment strong, modern cybersecurity.
Primes were knuckle-wrapped about
their sieve-like cybersystems under the
Obama administration, and all of them
have hardened their defenses. But the
supply chain accounts for about two-
thirds of what primes spend by way
of costs for their products, and that is
where industrysand the nations
weaknesses remain most glaring.
The notion that the buck stops with
primes is probably a good thing and is
better than the government trying to
enforce compliance from a bureaucrat-
ic and cost standpoint. But now it is up
to primes to make sure their suppliers
become compliant and stay that way.
Smaller suppliers should not hesitate
to call on their giant customers if they
have any questions or needs.
And if you are not getting satisfac-
tion, then call your member of Con-
gressor even a reporter. c
 Inside Business Aviation
commentary
Golden Drones
A rating system for UAS operators
G iven the segments rapid growth, heres a question that will
become increasingly important: How good a drone pilot are
you? For now, it is difcult to prove a level of expertise.
While vehicle operators of all
stripesfrom regional jet pilots
to tugboat captains to truckers
haulin hogsmust ofcially
demonstrate that they have a fa-
cility for doing what they are do-
ing, that is not the case for anyone
operating an unmanned aerial
system (UAS) weighing as much
as a 5,000-BTU air conditioner.
(Two examples are UAV Factorys
Penguin C, center photo, and
Insitus Scan Eagle, far right.)
Under current aviation rules,
individuals fying drones for noncom-
mercial purposes need not demon-
strate any facility to anyone. Those
expecting the drones to deliver dollars
do have to pass an FAA test under
Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR)
107, the Small Unmanned Aircraft
Systems rule, to gain a commercial
drone pilot license.
However, the exam covers the rules
and regs; test takers do not actually
demonstrate an ability to fy the thing.
So, back to that opening question.
It is one that UAS operators, and par-
ticularly commercial operators, want
to answer with authority. It is the same
kind of question regularly posed to
FAR 135 charter providers by potential
customers and insurers.
Typically, they point to their favor-
able rating by one of several auditing
agenciesWyvern Ltd. and ARGUS
International are the best known. A
good rating is a diferentiator in the
crowded charter industry.
Considering that background, it was
a logical move for Cincinnati-based
ARGUS in April 2016 to acquire the
Unmanned Safety Institute (USI).
Co-founded in 2014 by people skilled
in UAS management, operations and
education, USIs purpose is to teach,
train, set safety standards and help
16 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017
personnel, has established an auditing
UAV FActory
organizations integrate drones
safely into their own operations.
To that end, USI has crafted a UAS
curriculum to whet interest in science,
technology, engineering and math
among high school and university stu-
dents. The program explores a range
of UAS-related subjects including
aircraft control, payloads, data links,
airport operations, meteorology and
regulations. More than 100 schools
and colleges have embraced the USI
curriculum.
The unit has also created a certifca-
tion program that goes well beyond the
minima set by the FAA for becoming
FAR 107 UAS pilots. It comprises four
college-equivalent courses totaling
150+ hr. of instruction. In the 2016-17
school year, more than 700 students
obtained their Small UAS Safety
Certifcation.
USI holds two workshops annually
in partnership with Embry-Riddle
Aeronautical University; additional
workshops with other colleges are
being discussed. Apart from the in-
school classes, the majority of USI
instruction is online. However, it also
conducts on-site instruction for com-
panies contracting its services.
Aaron Greenwald, a USI co-founder
and now senior vice president for
By William Garvey
William Garvey is Editor-in-Chief
of Business & Commercial Aviation
Join the conversation at:
AviationWeek.com/IBA
william.garvey@aviationweek.com
ARGUS Unmanned, reports that in
the past six months his unit has been
contacted by companies involved in
banking, telecom, utilities, oil and gas
and other industries to help set up
drone programs. And of those already
involved in business aviation, he says,
Theyre turning the drones over to
the fight department.
For companies that choose to
engage a commercial UAS operator,
a new entity, unsurprisingly, ARGUS
Unmanned, is there to help. As in its
auditing system of charter operators,
ARGUS, with heavy input from its USI
standard for commercial UAS provid-
InsItU
ers. This involves certifed auditors
spending two days on site reviewing
an operators documented practices,
procedures and performance weighed
against the ARGUS criteria. A compli-
ant operation can promote that fact.
Phoenix Air, a well-regarded jet
charter operator based near Atlanta,
launched a UAS unit, Phoenix Air
Unmanned, in 2014. It operates seven
types of UAS providing a wide range
of services, including flming for mo-
tion pictures and television, precision
surveying and utility infrastructure
inspections in the U.S. and Canada.
Prior to his appointment as managing
director, Will Lovett served 24 years as
a U.S. Army pilot and then entered the
aviation insurance feld, with Phoenix
one of his clients. He viewed ARGUS
audits as important endorsements of
an operators performance and, accord-
ingly, invited a review of his UAS team
and procedures. In May, Phoenix Air Un-
manned became the frst such operation
to receive an ARGUS Gold rating.
Lovett says the auditing process is
strict, challenging and appropriate. As
for its value: I think its very impor-
tant; most certainly it is to Phoenix Air.
Which answers the opening question
with authority. c
aviationWeek.com/awst

commentary
Old Fight, New Battle
Will the White House side with big U.S. airlines
against their Gulf counterparts?
R emember that battle over open skies and the Persian Gulf
carriers access to the U.S.? It is about to return with a
vengeance, as U.S. legacy carriers and a group of nonaligned
airlines gear up to lobby the Trump administration about
whether it should build a wall in the sky.
After reaching a fever pitch
in 2015-16, the battle simmered
down as the two sides tried to
fgure out how the incoming
president and his team would
deal with the issue. The legacy
carriers and their unions took
solace in the Trump cam-
paigns America First trade
platform but were uncertain
how it would apply to inter-
national aviation. President
Donald Trump himself said
earlier this year that he acknowledged
both sides of the issue.
The U.S. open skies policy has
transformed international aviation
since the frst agreement was struck
with the Netherlands in 1992, removing
all barriers on air service between the
signatory countries and allowing any
airline domiciled in either country to
serve the other with few restrictions.
But in recent years, the three largest
U.S. carriersDelta Air Lines, Ameri-
can Airlines and United Airlinesand
their unions have grown increasingly
alarmed by the inroads the three big
Gulf carriersEmirates, Etihad
Airways and Qatar Airwayswere
making into the U.S. market (Southwest
Airlines pilot union, but not the airline,
also has joined the fght). The U.S. has
open skies agreements with both the
United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar.
The Partnership for Open and Fair
Skies, a lobbying group formed by
the legacy U.S. airlines, says the Gulf
carriers beneft from tens of billions of
dollars in direct government subsi-
dies, tilting the playing feld in their
favor. The Gulf carriers vehemently
aviationWeek.com/awst
Airline Intel
Joepriesaviation.net
deny that is the case. The partnership
is calling for U.S. consultations with
the UAE and Qatari governments and
demanding a freeze in the Gulf car-
riers capacity to the U.S. until those
talks conclude.
The U.S. airline industry is by no
means united. JetBlue Airways, Hawai-
ian Airlines and cargo carriers FedEx
and Atlas Air formed a rival lobbying
group, U.S. Airlines for Open Skies
(USAOS). It points out that the legacy
carriers only started complaining
when Emirates began operating a fight
between Milan and New York, a direct
threat to the legacy carriersand
their European partnerslucrative
transatlantic routes. The partnerships
charges are laughable, USAOS says,
because it was the open skies agree-
ments that allowed the legacy carriers
to strike immunized joint ventures with
European carriers in the frst place.
And the rhetoric is heating up
again. We just cannot compete
against $50 billion in government
subsidies, United Airlines President
Scott Kirby complained in August.
Robin Hayes, CEO of JetBlue, chimed
AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 17
By Madhu Unnikrishnan
Madhu Unnikrishnan is
Editor-in-Chief of Aviation Daily
Join the conversation at:
AviationWeek.com/AirlineIntel
madhu.unnikrishnan@aviationweek.com
in for the other side. The Big Three
are not asking the U.S. government
to enforce the rules as outlined in
our open skies agreements, he told
a Washington audience last month.
They are asking Washington to break
the rules in order to limit the competi-
tion against them and their foreign
airline partners. USAOS says any
freeze of the Gulf carriers access to
the U.S. market would be an abroga-
tion of the open skies agreements and
invite retaliation against U.S. airlines.
So far, the Trump administration
has given mixed signals about where it
might come down in the debate. Trans-
portation Secretary Elaine Chao has
not weighed in, but her department did
approve a foreign air carrier permit for
Norwegian UK, over the objections of
The rhetoric over the Gulf carriers
access to the U.S. heats up again,
imperiling U.S. open skies policy.
the legacy carriers and their unions.
On the other hand, the administration
has implemented travel bans afect-
ing passengers in countries in which
the Gulf carriers operate, and laptop
banssince rescindedthat materi-
ally afected the Gulf carriers business
trafc. And it recently moved to slap a
220% duty on Canadian-made Bombar-
dier C Series aircraft, signaling that
Trumps America First mantra might
be extended to aviation.
The stakes are huge. If the world
starts to think that the ironclad U.S.
open skies agreements are wobbly,
other countries could retaliate by
shutting of access to U.S. airlines. No
one wants to go back to the days be-
fore open skies, when routes between
the U.S. and Londons Heathrow Air-
port were limited to two airlines from
each nation, to cite just one example.
The unassailable fact is that open
skies agreements have lowered fares
and increased connectivity. And the
Gulf carriers, even with their current
fnancial travails, have made hundreds
of new markets accessible to pas-
sengers in North America. If the Gulf
carriers scale back their connections
to North America because U.S. policy
changes to beneft a handful of wealthy
companies and their unions, it is the
consumer who will sufer. c
 Leading Edge By Graham Warwick
Graham Warwick is
Managing Editor for Technology
Join the conversation at:
AviationWeek.com/LE
warwick@aviationweek.com

commentary Army has conducted ballistic test-

ing with bullets and rocket-propelled

Cell Mate grenades (RPG). The compressed-hy-

drogen tank was able to resist 7.62-mm
armor-piercing and incendiary rounds
without exploding, says Freese, who
Modular fuel-cell autonomous vehicle suggests adds that the RPG penetrated the tank
the technology could be ready for aerospace but caused no explosion.
This is due to a combination of tank
design and physics, he says. When

M ost new technologies with potential to disrupt aerospace

get their start in other sectors. For hydrogen fuel cells,
that will certainly be automotivein personal, commercial and
military vehicles. But General Motors believes its fuel cells will
fnd a place in aviation, in auxiliary power units (APU), distrib-
uted power generation and ground-support vehicles.
GM has launched
SURUS (for Silent
Utility Rover Universal
Platform), a fexible and
autonomous vehicle plat-
form (see photo) built on
a truck chassis powered
by modular fuel cells set
to be produced start-
ing in 2020 in a new $85
million plant built jointly
with Honda Motor Co. in
Brownstown, Michigan.
The same modules are being evalu-
ated for auxiliary power in aircraft
and to power unmanned undersea
vehicles (UUV), says Charlie Freese,
executive director of GMs global fuel-
cell business.
If the technology catches onand
Honda and Toyota are already pro-
ducing fuel-cell carsaerospace could
tap into the rapid development and
volume production of the automotive
market, as it is with lithium-ion bat-
teries for electric-powered aircraft.
Compared with batteries, hydrogen
fuel cells have higher energy densities
and can be recharged more quickly by
reflling hydrogen tanks. Compared
with gas-turbine APUs, fuel cells are
quiet and clean.
You have a fast-charging electric
vehicle with zero emissions that can go
10 times farther than with batteries,
and we can use a common system on
land, at sea and in the air, says Freese.
Our approach is modular, to invest in
a cell structure that is also running in
aircraft evaluations and undersea. In
UUVs, fuel cells reduce overall vehicle
General Motors
size, recharge in minutes versus hours
and provide endurance of months
rather than days, he says.
Fuel cells are not new to aerospace.
They have been used in the space
shuttle and International Space
Station. But those are expensive
systems. GM is not new to fuel cells::
It produced the frst such vehicle, the
Electrovan, in 1966, but the technol-
ogy was not ready. The automaker
picked up fuel cells again around 2010,
focusing on driving out cost.
GM developed the Colorado ZH2
prototype ofroad electric truck,
tested over the past year by the U.S.
Army to evaluate its 50-kW power-
generation capacity, lower acoustic
and thermal signatures, extended
range and the ability for soldiers to
use the water produced as the fuel
cells combine hydrogen and oxygen to
generate electricity. Versus a Hum-
vee, it can get 10 times closer without
being audible, Freese says. And the
hottest part is the tires.
Two concerns with fuel cells are the
safety and availability of hydrogen. The
the pressurized tank is penetrated,
the escaping hydrogen goes sonic,
creating turbulence that makes it
difcult to sustain combustion. It is a
no more signifcant safety issue than
with liquid fuel, he says.
As for availability, where a hydro-
gen infrastructure is not already in
place there are options, says GM.
The Army has reformer technology
to convert JP8 fuel to hydrogen, and
you can go farther on the hydrogen
than the original JP8, says Freese.
Solar, wind and grid electricity can
also be used to generate hydrogen.
The process is not emissions-free, but
neither is charging batteries.
The second-generation fuel cells in
the SURUS platform are half the size
and weight of those in the ZH2, and
cost is reduced by using less precious
metal as a catalyst, 12 grams versus
80. The vehicle itself combines fuel
cells with autonomous driving tech-
nology developed elsewhere within
GM, says Freese. The vehicle has
sensors, four-wheel steering and can
drive in either direction.
SURUS is a platform. It can carry
cargo containers or fuel tanks, oper-
ate as an autonomous ambulance or a
100-kW power center for disaster re-
lief and be confgured as a commercial
forklift or military weapon platform.
The Army plans to evaluate the proto-
type, which can autonomously follow a
manned leader or be ftted with a cab
and driven manually.
The signifcance for aviation of
SURUS and the Brownstown plant
is in the maturity of fuel cells. We
are testing with aerospace customers
now, proving the technology is robust
enough and meets environment
conditions at altitude, says Freese.
Everything looks positive. The chal-
lenge is fnding the right place to land
the technology in the replacement
cycle. c

18 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 aviationWeek.com/awst

 Washington Outlook
COMMENTARY
Comeback in Ukraine
Congress may ignore Trump proposal to cut aid
A fter the 2014 invasion by Russia, Ukraines military was
struggling. It was short on money and combat-ready
weapons.
Fixing those weapons was also a
problem, because more than half of
its spare parts and components came
from the Russian Federation. In 2014-
16, the U.S. provided more than $1.3
billion in foreign aid to help strengthen
UKROBORONPROM
Ukraines economy and defenses
but stopped short of selling it lethal
military equipment. Going forward,
President Donald Trump has proposed
cutting that assistance. Congress may
insist on more help, though. The Sen-
ate has proposed $500 million for fscal
2018, including a frst-time pledge of
defensive lethal gear.
But without the promise of military
hardware, Ukraine has been busy. Of-
fcials have reached out to NATO, uni-
versities and U.S. defense companies,
including Boeing and Honeywell. In the
last two years, the state-run company
Ukroboronprom has tested precision
missiles, developed radar, built an An-
tonov An-132D prototype without Rus-
sian parts and developed new UAVs,
including the Spectator, which has
been tested in combat for more than a
year. For Maj. Gen. Andriy Kovalchuk,
chief of staf of the Airborne Forces of
Ukraine, The important thing is for
the Ukrainian Army to get up from
its knees, stop the aggressor and be
capable of much more. c
DELEGATING AUTHORITY
In what would be a fundamental change
for the Pentagon, Ellen Lord, former
Textron CEO and new head of the de-
partments Acquisition, Technology and
Logistics (AT&L) ofce, hopes to ofoad
day-to-day management of most major
defense acquisition programs from the
Ofce of the Secretary of Defense.
Congress has been very, very clear
in the National Defense Authorization
Act that they want to shift oversight of
most programs back to the services,
AviationWeek.com/awst
The Ukranian defense industrys
Spectator UAV.
and I entirely agree with that, Lord
says, referring to the 2016 legislation
that aimed to reform the Pentagons
sluggish acquisition system. But the
switch will not be all-encompassing.
Joint programs that span multiple ser-
vices, such as the F-35, will stay within
AT&L, she says. c
OPEN SKIES?
The debate over whether U.S. skies
should be open to all foreign air car-
riers is heating back up as parties on
both sides of the issue wait for Trump
to weigh in on calls by the big three
U.S. airlines to restrict subsidized Per-
sian Gulf carriers (see page 17).
Fred Smith, CEO of FedEx, reiter-
ated his companys support for open
skies agreementsand invoked
national security to make his case.
Without open skies, the military could
face longer transit times to get materi-
als to critical locations, Smith said in
a speech, adding that the result could
be impairing the militarys readiness
levels and potentially our countrys
security.
Hogwash, fres back the Partner-
ship for Open and Fair Skies, the lobby-
ing group for American Airlines, Delta
Air Lines and United Airlines. U.S.
airlines and their feet of widebodies
support our military through the Civil
AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 19
Edited by Jen DiMascio
Jen DiMascio is Managing
Editor for Defense and Space
Join the conversation at:
AviationWeek.com/WashingtonOutlook
jennifer.dimascio@aviationweek.com
Reserve Air Fleet programforeign
feets do not, says Jill Zuckman, chief
spokesperson for the group. c
FEDERAL EFFORT
In an attempt to avoid a patchwork of
diferent local ordinances regulating
how UAVs can be fown, a coalition of
29 companies and organizations are
appealing to the Trump administration
for help. The coalition, led by the Asso-
ciation for Unmanned Vehicle Systems
International, includes manufacturers,
corporations that will use unmanned
aircraft systems (UAS), such as
Amazon, and services companies such
as PrecisionHawk. It wants the U.S.
government to create a pilot program
for state and local governments to
work with the FAA to integrate UAS
into U.S. airspace.
Such collaboration will help the
burgeoning industry, which could have
an $82 billion impact on the economy,
the group says in an Oct. 11 letter to
Trump. Recent comments made by
Deputy U.S. Chief Technology Ofcer
Michael Kratsios are encouraging to
the coalition, which says federal con-
trol of airspace is the primary reason
the U.S. maintains an aviation safety
record that is the envy of the world. c
LIFT OFF
After more than two decades since its
dissolution, the newly revived National
Space Council has a punch list. Vice
President Mike Pence has tasked the
council with completing three reviews
in 45 days. One is to make a dramatic
shift in NASA policyaway from a hu-
man mission to an asteroid and toward
cislunar space as a proving ground
for missions to Mars and beyond. A
second review will focus on regulatory
changes benefcial to private space
companies, and a third will devise a
strategic framework that integrates
commercial space services and the
potential for space exploration.
When it comes to that framework,
the presidents national security advi-
sor, H.R. McMaster, points out that
international cooperation is not just
important for civil space eforts but for
the military as well. According to Mc-
Master, even though the strategy pro-
motes Trumps America First slogan,
It doesnt mean America Alone. c
 TECHNOLOGY

Creative Combination
Boeing bets on Aurora to come up with
innovative ideas for new products
Graham Warwick Washington

A
lphabetical seating put Aurora Flight Sci-
ences founder and CEO John Langford next
to Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg at a
meeting of U.S. aerospace industry leaders in May
2016. They had met before, on the U.S. Army Fu- AACUS Autonomy kit to convert
helicopters for unmanned resupply
ture Combat Systems program, so Langford seized
the moment to ask Muilenburg if Boeing would be
interested in collaborating with Aurora on its D8
advanced airliner concept.

That exchange led to the Oct. 5 an- ALIAS Drop-in

nouncement that Boeing has agreed to
acquire privately held Aurora, a leader
in unmanned aircraft and autonomous-
systems research based in Manassas,
Virginia. Terms have not been dis-
closed, but Aurora is to become an in-
dependent subsidiary under Boeings
corporate research and technology or-
ganization, which serves both its com-
mercial and defense business units
Analysts and the companies them-
selves have talked up the game-
changing importance of Auroras au-
tonomy capabilities to Boeings future
products, commercial and military,
and it will bring valuable expertise in
areas ranging from optionally piloted
aircraft to distributed electric propul-
sion. But the D8 airliner plays a pivotal
role in how and why the two companies
have come together.
Langford founded Aurora in 1989 to
develop robotic aircraft for climate re-
search, a niche it quickly flled. Its the
typical life cycle of a small business.
You have to be prepared to reinvent
yourself as the market changes, says
Langford. In the late 1990s, Aurora
diversified into advanced flight con-
trols and manufacturing, winning a
contract to produce structures for
robotic copilot
to automate
existing cockpits
setts Institute of Tech-
nology (MIT), and is
a pivotal part of why
Boeing ended up so in-
terested in us, he says.
Aurora subsequently
opened ofces in Silicon
Valley near Stanford
University and in Switzerland near
ETH Zurich, and strengthening ties
Orion Medium-
with this triumvirate of institutions is
altitude unmanned
key to its plans. The D8 fuel-efcient aircraft with 120-hr.+
airliner was conceived for NASA by endurance
MIT professor Mark Drela. When we
said, This is a good idea, were going
to build it, MIT laughed, says Lang-
ford, acknowledging that the industrial
scope is mind-boggling.
Auroras ambition for the D8 illus-
trates why it wants to be bought by
Boeing. The company has built and
flown more than 30 unmanned air-
craft, but none have transitioned to
products. Over and over, Aurora has
been the first to innovatebut then
we have been unable to capitalize on
our lead for lack of sufcient depth and AURORA FLIGHT SCIENCES PHOTOS AND CONCEPTS

Northrop Grummans Global Hawk.
The flight-controls business was
spun of as Athena Technologies, which
was acquired by Rockwell Collins in
2008. We began the process of recre-
ating what we just sold, says Langford.
This included opening an R&D center
in Cambridge, close to the Massachu-
resources, Langford said in an Oct. 5
letter to employees.
We successfully take the beachhead,
but then reinforcements never arrive,
and we are never able to push of the
beach and move inland. Five-day-en-
durance aircraft, robotic co-pilots and
autonomous electric VTOL [vertical-
takeoff-and-landing] are
but three examples of ar-
eas in the past three years
that we have pioneered,
but then been unable to
productize . . . due to lack
of resources and depth,
he said.

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst

 The fundamental Beyond UAVs and the unconvention-
logic on both sides is al D8, Aurora is developing an electric
that Boeing will pro- vertical-takeof-and-landing (eVTOL)
vide that armada air taxi to fulfil Ubers vision of ur-
behind us. We will ban air mobility. Boeing is interested.
continue to innovate Whatever form air transport takes,
D8 Double-bubble airliner and fnd new beach- we want to be the leader, Hyslop says.
with boundary layer ingestion heads that they can A partnership around eVTOL will be
transition into large- right on our doorstep. He notes that in
various sizes and missions, a number
eVTOL Distributed-thrust of products could emerge.
electric aircraft for urban The deal is not about revenue
air mobility Herbert expects Aurora to add only
about $150 million to Boeings $90
scale products, Langford tells billion-plus in annual sales. It is about
Aviation Week. They have an commercializing innovations. This is
amazing industrial team, but really focused around taking our R&D
they need to be looking 20-30 and turning it into products, says
years ahead to stay suc- Langford. Being part of Hyslops or-
cessful in this business. ganization rather than one of the prod-
Autonomy is going uct groups means we will be able to
support them across the enterprise.
Centaur Optionally For Boeing, this will likely be a bolt-
piloted aircraft, based on acquisition without the price-earn-
on certifed Diamond ing ratios demanded for companies
with large revenue streams. But it
DA40
will be a signifcant payof for Auroras
patient shareholders, which include
to have a far-reaching early backers such as the Wells Foun-
impact on our products. dation, Global Environment Fund and
Weve already seen it on more recent investor Enlightenment
the defense side, says Capital.
Greg Hyslop, chief tech- Boeings plans for Aurora, follow-
nology ofcer and senior ing its investments in startups such
vice president of Boe- as hybrid-electric regional aircraft
ing Engineering, Test developer Zunum Aero (page 22), ap-
SideArm Runway independent and Technology. The pear to be its response to moves by
UAV launch-and-recovery system technology is matur- Airbus to embrace potentially disrup-
ing quickly, and its go- tive technologies. Airbus established
ing to be important for Silicon Valley outpost A3 in 2015 and
aerospace. To maintain has launched initiatives in urban air
safety in commercial mobility, hybrid-electric propulsion,
aviation, we are going unmanned aircraft and autonomy.
to need autonomy. We Langford, who will continue to lead
need to continue to Aurora, also sees the Boeing deal as
lead, and Aurora is a important to retaining and developing
unique capability for talent at both companies. Talent is a
us, he says. huge investment. It is also restless. You
Aurora is known have to keep them moving forward, he
as a leader in the says. Poaching [by West Coast tech
high-end and high- companies] has hit us hard, but now
altitude UAV market we will have career avenues to keep
and will add significant our people in the family.
autonomous technology With a workforce of only 550, there
to Boeing, says Canna- is a strong multidisciplinary element
cord Genuity analyst to engineering at Aurora. People here
Ken Herbert in a note are forced to operate outside the nor-
to investors. While this mal stovepipes, says Langford. We
transaction is small, we will be able to give Boeing people a
do believe it gives Boe- chance to experience that without the
XV-24A Lightning Strike ing the opportunity to company losing them. c
High-speed VTOL with hybrid-electric be at the forefront of au-
distributed propulsion tonomous innovation. With Michael Bruno in Washington

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 21

 Technology

Regional Revivalist
Startup believes low operating costs
that are possible with electric propulsion
can rebuild regional air transport
Graham Warwick Washington

R
eaching back to the early days of region-
al aviation in its bid to bring air service
back to smaller communities, Boeing-
backed startup Zunum Aero has unveiled its
frst product: a 12-passenger hybrid-electric
commuter aircraft. Targeting operating
costs just 20-30% of those of similar-sized
turboprops available today, the aircraft
is planned for certifcation and
delivery in 2022.

Headquartered in Kirkland, Wash-
ington, Zunum emerged from stealth
mode in April with venture-capital
backing from Boeing and JetBlue Air-
ways and the stated goal of rebuilding
the atrophied U.S. regional air trans-
port market with a family of 10- to 50-
seat aircraft using electric propulsion
for low operating costs.
We have been fairly cagey on what
our first product might be. Now we
are saying the first aircraft we are
bringing to market is going to be a
regional-sized, up-to-12-passenger
commuter type, says Matt Knapp, Zu-
num Aero chief technology ofcer and
co-founder. You can confgure it with
six seats for business class, but we
see the primary application as being
a 9-seat business/economy or 12-seat
all-economy commuter aircraft, serv-
ing regional markets on point-to-point
and hub feeder routes.
Electric propulsion is possible be-
cause Zunum is designing its aircraft
with limited range and speed for short-
haul regional routes: up to 700 mi. at
340 mph. initially, increasing to 1,000
mi. by 2030 and potentially 1,500 mi.
by the mid-2030s as battery technol-
ogy improves. This compares with al-
most 2,000 mi. today for the similarly
sized Pilatus PC-12.
Zunum is targeting an operating
costincluding fuel, electricity and
batteriesof 8 cents per seat-mile, or
$250 per hour. Thats an unbeatable
number, says Knapp. You cant oper-
ate a [Boeing] 737 for that if you are
fying 300-500 mi. It would compare
with the [Bombardier] Q400, if you are
operating at 300-400-mi. range, and it
would be 3-5 times cheaper than run-
ning similar-size aircraft, be it a PC-12
or a [Beechcraft] King Air.
Zunum believes dramatically lower
operating costs can revitalize a re-
gional air transport system that has
contracted as aircraft have increased
in size. Back in 1980, there were close
to 300 small carriers in this country,
and they were operating things like the
Beech 1900. They averaged about 20
seats and about 150-mi. stage lengths.
For those of us that travel, that is al-
most unheard of now, Knapp says.
There are now well less than 300 [car-
riers], and they are averaging 60 seats
and 450-mi. stages lengths. They are
not called regionals anymore.
These airlines now fy large turbo-
props and regional jets. They are us-
ing the major airports. They need the
longer runways, he says, arguing the
regional market has been left without
an economically viable aircraft to serve
it. Door-to-door times are worse than
they were 50 years ago, and we have
left communities without any access
to air service. A lot of secondary cities
have seen their air service decline as
the airlines have pulled out of hubs, or
combined their hubs.
Zunums vision is of a distributed
regional network of some 4,000 ex-
isting, smaller airports that would
not need the complex ticketing, se-
curity and baggage-handling infra-

22 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst

 Zunums 2022 Aircraft
by the Numbers
Weights (lb.)
Max. takeoff ...........................................<12,500
Max. payload ............................................. 2,470
Standard fuel ................................................. 800
Battery weight .........................<20% of MTOW
Performance
Max. cruise speed ................................ 340 mph
Max. range ..................................... >700 mi.
Max. altitude ................................. 25,000 ft.
Takeoff distance .............................. 2,200 ft.
Landing distance ............................ 2,500 ft.
Time to 25,000 ft. ............................ 18 min.
Stall speed ......................................... 73 kt.
Max. power ....................... 1-megawatt class
Emissions ........................ <0.3 lb. CO2/ASM
Sideline noise ............................... 65 EPNdB
Source: Zunum Aero
Zunum is aiming for 2022
certication and delivery of its
initial 12-passenger hybrid-
electric commuter aircraft.
ZUNMUN AERO CONCEPTS
structure of major hubs. Everything
can go through biometrics, through
cellphones, through a portable data-
transfer device, so your infrastructure
needs can be as light as you want to
make them, Knapp says.
Potential customers range from ex-
isting operators through small com-
munities that lease a couple of aircraft
and a pool of pilots to provide subsi-
dized air service to pools of aircraft
providing on-demand transportation.
We have conversations going with a
number of operators, both freight and
passenger, he says.
The 12-seat aircraft has a maximum
takeof weight less than 12,500 lb., en-
abling certification using industry-
developed standards under the FAAs
revamped Part 23 regulations. The
aircraft has a 1-megawatt-class series
hybrid-electric propulsion system with
a 500-kW-class turbogenerator burn-
ing jet fuel and generating electricity
to charge the batteries and drive the
dual ducted fans.
AviationWeek.com/awst
Performance goals are based on the
energy densities of lithium-ion batter-
ies now coming out of Teslas Gigafac-
tory, Knapp says. That is something
that we could y on right now, though
we might increase the electric genera-
tion a bit or decrease the range a bit to
match them. But batteries have been
improving at a pretty reliable rate, so
we are prepared to y with batteries
that will be available in the next year
or two.
The series hybrid powertrain archi-
tecture is agnostic to battery technol-
ogy, he says. The batteries are housed
in modules, which are installed in the
wing, and can be switched out as
technology improves. We are pick-
ing the correct architecture for what
is available today, for what we need
to certify and sell, but leaving our
options open, he says. Really the
only decision is its going to seat this
many people and y this fast, which
dictates the aerodynamics. Beyond
that is a modular system, and we are
not locking ourselves into any one as-
pect of it.
Zunums intent is to allow the opera-
tor to recharge the batteries or swap
them between ights for a faster turn-
The 2022 aircraft is similar in size
to a Pilatus PC-12, but Zunum is
aiming for 3-5 times lower
operating cost.
around. Thats a great design chal-
lenge, says Knapp. Thats part of our
technology that we are not releasing
details on at the moment.
The company has decided to de-
velop its own motor but has a request
for information out to manufacturers
for the turbogenerator. Weve invited
them to bid on both the turboshaft
as a piece or the generator as a piece
AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 23
or, preferably for us, on combining
them, he says. Whether redundancy
is required in turbogeneration is being
discussed with the FAA.
Zunum is working toward a pre-
liminary design review in 2018 and
a critical design review in 2019. For
us, the big milestones are setting up a
high-power copper bird ground-test
facility for the powertrain by the end of
the year, says Knapp. Following that
will be a ying testbed, which is a con-
verted airframe with an electric pow-
ertrain in it. Flight tests are planned
for 2019.
The company has strong confi-
dence in its low operating-cost pro-
jections based on the savings achieved
from using hybrid-electric propulsion
in other modes of transportation such
as buses. Some of those dont carry
across, such as regenerative braking,
but there are substantial reductions
in operating costs and substantial in-
creases in operating efciency, espe-
cially at regional range, he says. The
low operating costs of the motors are
not a big unknown.
Knapp has described Zunum as
primarily a propulsion company and
is hoping to work with an airframer to
Swappable batteries are
integrated into the wings,
while the turbogenerator
sits between the
ducted-fan propulsors.
produce the aircraft. We are looking
for potential partners to do the air-
frame, he says, declining to discuss
how Zunum is working with Boeing.
The plan of record is to build up a
team able to do the full-stack devel-
opment of the complete aircraft, but
we are actively looking for potential
partners in the detailed design and
build of the aircraft. c
 TECHNOLOGY
Sustaining Subsonic
Aurora acquisition gives Boeing pole position in
initial subsonic X-plane risk-reduction contracts
Guy Norris Los Angeles
F
acing continuing budget con-
straints over its future subsonic
X-plane flight-demonstrator
plan, NASA has awarded a limited se-
ries of risk-reduction contracts to help
industry contenders reduce technolo-
gy risk and maintain momentum over
the intervening years, before the rst
demonstrator takes to the skies in the
mid-2020s.
When the agency unveiled its New
Aviation Horizons initiative in 2016, it
planned to follow the rst all-new X-
plane of the 2020sthe Quiet Super-
sonic Technology (QueSST) low-boom
demonstratorwith a sequence of
subsonic X-plane programs initiated
as frequently as 18 months apart. But
NASA did not receive the increase in
aeronautics funding it requested, and
although the $624 million sought for
2018 is sufcient to safeguard QueSST,
the follow-on subsonic X-planes will be
rolled out at a slower rate than expect-
ed over the late 2020s and beyond.
The five Ultra-Efficient Subsonic
Technology (UEST) X-plane demon-
strator concepts studied so far are
Aurora Flight Sciences double-bub-
ble D8, Boeings blended-wing body
(BWB) and transonic truss-braced
wing (TTBW), Dzyne Technologies
regional-jet BWB and Lockheed
Martins hybrid-wing body. In 2016,
working with NASA, the contenders
performed system requirements de-
nition for each of the concepts and es-
tablished the associated risk posture,
cost and schedule estimates.
Following the conclusion of this
work in May, NASA requested risk-
reduction proposals from Aurora,
24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017
Boeing, Dzyne and Lockheed. The
evaluations are complete, and we made
immediate awards to Aurora, on the
double-bubble concept, and to Boeing,
focused on both TTBW and BWB con-
cepts. It is possible we may revisit the
proposals from Dzyne and Lockheed,
says Fay Collier, NASAs associate di-
rector for ight strategy.
It remains unclear howif at all
the Boeing acquisition of Aurora,
announced on Oct. 5, will affect the
overall competition for UEST. Aurora
will operate as a subsidiary of Boeing
Engineering, Test and Technology, the
companys central research and devel-
opment organization, but is expected
to continue operating as a broadly in-
dependent unit. Under current plans,
NASA expects to issue a draft request
for proposals (RFP) for the UEST1
X-plane in scal 2018, with a nal RFP
the following year. The intent is to se-
lect two concepts to take through to
preliminary design reviews, with a -
nalist to be chosen for the rst UEST
X-plane. First ight would occur some-
time in the mid-2020s, with a second
UEST2 X-plane due to follow five Testing will therefore also focus on
years later.
The risk-reduction tasks are fo-
cused on design and analysis activi-
ties to be conducted over the next 12
months by the industry partners that
are deemed crucial by them to reduce
the overall technical, cost and sched-
ule risk of their concept X-plane that
we studied last spring, notes Collier.
The task areas of interest include con-
guration aerodynamics, propulsion-
airframe integration and structures.
However, no one has been eliminated
Auroras proposed XD8
will be a 52%-scale
demonstrator driven by
fans powered by a single
buried engine, the inlets
for which are mounted on
the fuselage sides.
from the future X-plane
NASA/AURORA FLIGHT SCIENCES
competition, Collier em-
phasizes. Once approved,
that solicitation will be
open competition, and may
attract more than the con-
cepts and companies we
have had engaged to date,
he says.
Some new details of
the ve current concepts,
and the key challenges for
each, have also emerged.
Boeings proposed BWB X-plane will
be a roughly half-scale demonstra-
tor of a full-scale aircraft capable of
ranges up to 8,000 nm. Key priorities
for the Boeing demonstrator include
proving the blended-wing design will
meet targeted lift/drag objectives at
transonic speeds. Boeing will also
want to demonstrate that noise shield-
ing [with engines mounted on top of
the aircraft] really works. Theyre ex-
pecting 38.4 dB [below current Stage
4 noise levels], says Tony Washburn,
aerosciences lead at NASA Langley
Research Center.
Designed for cruise speeds of Mach
0.85, the BWB conguration benets
aerodynamically from area ruling and
structurally from a signicant degree
of span loading. However, one of the
challenges is it doesnt have a cylin-
drical pressure vessel. We think the
Prseus (Pultruded Rod Stitched Ef-
ficient Unitized Structure) infused
composites is a good solution for
that, says Washburn, referring to the
Boeing-developed material designed
for noncylindrical cross-sections.
the damage tolerance of the compos-
ite material, as well as stability and
control characteristics of the BWB at
this much larger scale.
For the TTBW demonstrator, which
Boeing plans to produce at 90% scale
based on a heavily modied DC-9/MD-
80 or 717, the test focus will be on the
performance of the concepts truss-
supported high-aspect-ratio wing.
At this time, it looks like a Mach 0.8
cruise vehicle, and thats pretty phe-
nomenal, Washburn said at the recent
AviationWeek.com/awst

SAE AeroTech conference in Fort
Worth. So there will be a lot of work
on aerodynamic optimization and the
structural benet of the truss. Boeing
wants to demonstrate a 100% increase
in aspect ratiothats an incredible
number.
The short chord wing produces
higher lift without increasing induced
drag and is also more amenable to
natural laminar ow, says Washburn.
But you have all these nonlinear aero-
elastic efects going on there and thats
where all the risks are that need to be
retired. Then there is the question of
how to certify a nonstandard struc-
ture like that? The wing will also fold
to permit use of existing single-aisle
airport gates, though Boeing does not
expect to incorporate this feature into
the X-plane.
For the Aurora D8 demonstrator,
the test will focus on proving the vi-
ability of the lightweight structural
concept, which is used in the design
to combine two circular cross-sections
to form a attened fuselage. The nal
design incorporates partial-height up-
per and lower webs running the length
of the cabin and tied together at every
other frame by tension rods.
The 52%-scale demonstrator will
also evaluate the performance of the
boundary-layer ingestion (BLI) con-
cept at the heart of the fuel-saving
conguration. In this design, dubbed
XD8 by Aurora, distortion-tolerant
fans embedded between twin vertical
tails will ingest slow-moving air over
the upper surface of the fuselage and
reenergize the wake, reducing drag.
The reduced drag of the integrated
conguration makes this concept very
positive, says Washburn.
However, there are some serious
integration challenges, he adds. The
design places the powerplants side by
side on the tail, an arrangement un-
AviationWeek.com/awst
NASA/BOEING
likely to be approved by regulatory au-
thorities under current rules because
of the risk of an uncontained failure
in one engine damaging the other. Al-
though the Aurora design avoids this
with canted engine cores, the demon-
strator will require a special propul-
sion system to be developed, he adds.
They will use a regular engine to pro-
vide power and then decouple the fans
from it. On the X-plane they have inlets
in the side of the fuselage to provide air
for the propulsion system.
Personal Prize
Two-year ultra-compact personal-air-vehicle
contest may enable aviations next great leap
Guy Norris Fort Worth
A
s an ever-growing lineup of ve-
hicle concepts emerges for the
embryonic short-range urban-
air-transport market, a global competi-
tion has been launched to tackle what
is sometimes seen as the ultimate goal
of aviationcreating ever-smaller per-
sonal aircraft.
Sponsored by Boeing, the $2 million
GoFly competition is aimed at develop-
ing a safe, viable personal air vehicle.
The y-of of the nalist designs will
be on an as yet unannounced date in
2019. The prize will be awarded to the
developer of an everyone personal
flying device capable of being flown
by anyone at any time, says Lynne
Hopper, vice president of engineering,
modifications and maintenance for
Boeing Global Services.
In announcing the contestat the
SAE AeroTech 2017 convention here
in SeptemberHopper said it could
AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017
The Boeing TTBW demonstrator
would mate a strut-supported high-
aspect-ratio wing with the fuselage
and engines of a yet-to-be-selected
member of the DC-9, MD-80 or 717
aircraft families.
The key test priority for Dzyne Tech-
nologies BWB will be on the pitch-piv-
oting landing gear, says Washburn. Set
further back on this design compared
to Boeings larger multideck BWB, the
aft location of the gear is congured to
enable the Dzyne conguration to be
sized with a single deck for regional
airliner applications.
For Lockheed Martin, the main fo-
cus for tests of the hybrid wing body
will be on the performance of the over-
wing engine nacelles. Cantilevered
on struts over the trailing edge, the
overwing positioning enables higher-
bypass-ratio engines and is predicted
to produce 5% less drag than conven-
tional underwing engines. The congu-
ration also provides acoustic shielding
and, at low speed, increases aircraft lift
without a thrust or drag penalty. c
enable the next great leap in avia-
tionpersonal ight.
We invite the worlds innovators to
develop a safe, quiet, compact near-ver-
tical-takeof-and-landing personal ying
device that will carry one person 20 mi.
without refueling or recharging, says
GoFly Prize Group CEO Gwen Lighter.
What the device looks like and how it
works is up to the innovators. Our y-
ing devices should be able to be used
by anyone, anywhere, from the most re-
mote places to the most crowded cities.
Whether you stand on it, strap it on, sit
in it or get into it, thats all up to you to
decide, she advises.
Lighter says the competition has
been launched because today is the
rst time in human history where we
can truly build these machines, not-
ing that a convergence of several break-
through technologies has made this a
moment of achievable innovation. She
25
 TECHNOLOGY
cites the development of autonomous
ground vehicles, increased battery and
capacitor performance, lightweight
materials, and sense-and-avoid sys-
tems as pivotal to making the time ripe
for personal air vehicle development.
She believes the timing for a global
contest is bolstered by the advent of
3D printing and other types of rapid
prototyping, noting that they have
opened up the design world to innova-
tors outside of large corporations.
The contest is divided into three
phases, with the initial prizes due to
be awarded in May 2018. Ten prizes of
$20,000 each will be awarded for indi-
vidual technical specications. At this
point, this is purely a paper competi-
tion for the rst phase. After that, we
begin the building phase and, in May
2019, we will be awarding four prizes
BUSINESS
M&A Tempest Brews
Industry observers think they know where to
look for more deals to emerge in A&D
Michael Bruno Washington
W
ith United Technologies
Corp. buying Rockwell Col-
lins, Northrop Grumman
acquiring Orbital ATK, and Boeing
planning to take over Aurora Flight
Sciences, observers could be forgiven
for assuming that another wave of con-
solidation is hitting the A&D industry.
And, it is, if you know where to look
next.
Some indicators point to certain
sectors, such as space or the aftermar-
ket, or to targets of a specic size, as
in midtier or smaller. Others spotlight
certain buyers, namely large-cap U.S.
and allied foreign companies or invest-
ment groups, and suggest they will be
acquiring a select set of targets (see
below).
While many analysts, consultants
and experts have their own predictions
of where to look next for a big head-
line, increasingly the only widespread
agreement is that mergers and acquisi-
tions (M&A) have become harder to do
for all kinds of reasons, but there is no
letup in sight.
The next few months may be rather
stressful for most deal-makers in the
A&D sector, says a recent report by
26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017
The Pufn was outlined with a 50-
mi. range, more than double that
required in the GoFly competition.
of $50,000 each, says Lighter.
The contest will culminate with a
fly-off to determine the grand prize
winner, which will take place in the
third quarter of 2019. The final can-
didates will be judged on best overall
performance in size, noise and speed.
The three y-of prizes planned are:
$250,000 to the team developing the
smallest compliant device, $250,000
to the quietest and $100,000 to the
team with the most disruptive design,
deemed to be one that challenges the
state of the art.
However, because of the challenges
of the contest, the organizers stress
that contenders do not necessarily
Doug Gates, Tom Mayor and other
KPMG consultants.
Many are already feeling pressure
from shareholders to spend some of
their dry powder on a headline-grab-
bing investment, they continue. And
they recognize that prices for good
quality assets are already skyrocket-
ing. But they also know that the risks
associated with a major deal are higher
today than ever before.
Clearly, many industry observers
see good reasons to expect more deals,
as well as plenty of desirable targets to
acquire across aerospace and defense.
On the commercial aerospace side, -
nancial analysts at Vertical Research
Partners say one of the most fruitful,
and thus most likely, tie-ups they see
could be aerostructures leader Spirit
AeroSystems buying global engineer-
ing provider GKNs aerospace busi-
nessif not buying GKN entirely and
spinning of its automotive side.
Other possibilities include materi-
als and engineering company Arconic
buying composites and structures
provider Hexcel, and less likely, Gen-
eral Electrics aviation unit taking in
engineering and subsystem-maker
need to win a Phase 1 prize to proceed
to the second round, or even win a
Phase 2 prize to qualify for the y-of.
All are welcome, adds Lighter.
Safety is a priority, and teams are eli-
gible to y either manned or unmanned,
autonomously or controlled with a
dummy occupant. We also require
no single point of failure in systems or
components [but do] require all teams
to comply with FAA and international
Meggitt, which Vertical says is a pe-
rennial favorite inside component
M&A discussions.
Of course, if GE is interested in a
strategic, multibillion-dollar acquisi-
tion, Vertical has been opining all year
on the potential combination of GE
Aviation and Honeywell Aerospace
the latter being in play as Honeywell
International reviews its business
portfolio at the behest of activist in-
vestors.
So what is keeping these deals from
happening? Each deal is diferent, but
most advisors cite one common ob-
stacle: price. According to Vertical,
valuations of publically traded com-
panies generally stand at the top end
of the historical range, now averaging
22 times earnings (22x) across A&D.
At the start of October, aerospace-
focused providers worldwide were
at 21.2x, with the U.S. sector at 22.6x
(Boeing at 24.3x), while Europe was at
18.7x (Airbus at 18x). Defense globally
was at 20.0x, with U.S. primes averag-
ing 21.2x.
Despite those sky-high valua-
tions, M&A in aerospace and defense
marches on. We think that there are a
number of issues driving the increase
in sector M&A, but two of these are
likely to be structural changes in the
OEM/supplier relationship, and in
the aftermarket, Verticals Rob Stal-
lard explains. OEMs have always put
price pressure on the suppliers, and
if anything this has gotten worse in
recent years.
AviationWeek.com/awst
 als as well as experts in branding and
marketing, will be available.
It truly takes a community to raise
a whole new industry and revolution
in new technology, says Lighter, who
adds that a wide range of professional
et Astronautique in France.
Opinion within the industry is divid-
ed as to whether the GoFly competition
will help spark innovations that could,
for example, spawn technology for fu-
ture urban air vehicles. Mark Moore,

NASA
regulations, and all flight hours and
testing [must be] logged.
The contest is supported by a group
of technical masters and mentors who
will host global webinar seminars for all
teams on a monthly basis. There will
also be a diverse group of mentors avail-
able for one-on-ones, Lighter adds. Ac-
cess to mentors for other disciplines
related to new-product development,
including legal and funding profession-
societies are supporting the GoFly com-
petition. Among them are the American
Helicopter Society (AHS), American
Institute of Aeronautics and Astronau-
tics, Aircraft Owners and Pilots Asso-
ciation, Experimental Aircraft Associa-
tion, Association for Unmanned Vehicle
Systems International, American Soci-
ety for Engineering Education, Aero-
space Industries Association, General
Aviation Manufacturers Association,
SAE, Society of Experimental Test Pi-
lots, Royal Aeronautical Society in the
UK and the Association Aeronautique
the former NASA veteran of advanced
projects and urban mobility who is
now director of aviation for Uber, says
innovations developed for GoFly could
bubble up to the next level. We have
seen technology trickle down from
higher levels, but in this case it could
move the other way, he predicts.
AHS International Executive Direc-
tor Mike Hirschberg disagrees. I dont
think it will have any particular impact
on Uber-type missions. Its more about
developing interest in aviation than de-
veloping a product, he says. c

What is diferent this time is that in given its involvement in space, mis- fense-and-space scenarios, including
previous upcycles of business activity, siles and unmanned aircraft. He notes Science Applications International
Tier 1 suppliers and below were able to that stock traders may also sense Corp. buying ManTech in government
compensate for OEM price pressures potential takeover possibilities for services, or an acquisition of Harris
by relying on strong growth in the af- unmanned specialist AeroVironment by General Dynamics, adding to its
termarket for their parts and systems. and defense electronics boutique defense electronics portfolio. Just for
But aftermarket growth since the 2008 Mercury Systems. kicks, Vertical also would not rule out
financial crisis and Great Recession Vertical also sees interesting de- a possible merger of Boeing Defense,
has been half what it was pre- Space and Security with Northrop
viously, making it a challenge Who Has the Most M&A Firepower in A&D? although this would test the Pentagons
to preserve margins, accord- DRY POWDER AS current ban on primes consolidating.
ing to Vertical. Indeed, growth COMPANY DRY POWDER % OF MARKET CAP Still, many of these deals reflect
this upcycle has averaged just BAE Systems 5,228 26% more of a roll-up approach, where
7%, compared with 12% before. Boeing 34,236 23 deal-makers and chief executives look
Canaccord Genuity aviation Booz Allen 507 9 to piece together business units, rather
analyst Ken Herbert notes BWX Technologies 743 14 than make wholesale acquisitions.
that industry consolidation CACI 60 2 Consolidation does not just have
within the tiers was picking Chemring 168 34
to be about large caps buying other
up for some time. It is impor- defense rms, says widely followed
Cobham (114) -3
tant to note that there could defense analyst Byron Callan of Capi-
CSRA (153) -3
be a step-up in larger com- tal Alpha Partners. There could be
pany consolidation, but that Engility (444) -38 more portfolio-shaping along the lines
consolidation in the aerospace General Dynamics 13,344 22 of the Lockheed Martin-Sikorsky-
sector in small-to-midsize Harris 1,450 9 IS&GS [information technology unit
companies has been moving Huntington Ingalls 2,579 26 spinof ] deals or there could be merg-
forward, he says. L3 Technologies 1,090 7 ers among midtier equals, he says.
In the commercial sector, Leidos (1,565) -18 Among other benefits, buying
he sees more consolidation Lockheed Martin 8,382 9 smaller companies can help bring in
coming among structures Mantech 450 27 key technologies or product enhance-
suppliers. In defense and Northrop Grumman 6,682 14 ments at a lower cost or with less risk
space, Herbert eyes Kratos Orbital ATK 952 12 than if the prime tried to develop these
Defense & Space as a target, Qinetiq 635 50
internally. Boeings Oct. 5 announce-
ment that it is pursuing Aurora for
So-called dry powder, as Raytheon 9,674 18
undisclosed terms is a good example.
measured by the latest net Rockwell Collins 3,809 18
Clearly, big buyers appear to have
debt loading and pretax SAIC 138 5 the wherewithal. Callan recently
earnings estimates, com- Thales 7,949 40 looked at the dry powder capability
pared with a companys Ultra Electronics 181 13 of potential large buyers, (i.e., the com-
Sources: Capital Alpha Partners, Bloomberg
market capitalization. bination of their cash on hand, near-

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 27

 TECHNOLOGY
term earnings power and additional
debt-loading abilities) and found that
a number of publicly traded defense-
focused companies still have the ca-
pacity to do deals without issuing new
equity (see table on page 27).
That is important, as shareholders
frown upon issuing new stock, because
it dilutes the value of their existing
shares, potentially raising their ire
toward such deals. But when share-
holders do not take new hitsas in
Northrops all-cash ofer for Orbital
then buy-side shareholders tend to be
more sanguine. Northrop shareholders
do not have to vote on the proposal,
only Orbitals, who are receiving a pre-
mium of about 22%.
Having cash on hand for deals
is helping another strategic buyer.
Many analysts cite habitual acquirer
L3 Technologies as a major player,
especially after recently losing a few
hoped-for contract awards, including
a new a 10-year, $387 million contract
to support U.S. Army and Air Force
rotary-wing training at Fort Rucker,
Alabama.
Cowen and Co. analysts say L3 still
has at least $1 billion available for more
so-called tuck-in M&A deals, despite a
string of recent bolt-on additions, in-
cluding Doss Aviation, Adaptive Meth-
ods and OceanServer Technology.
We think this strategy makes
sense, since L3 is the only major con-
solidator in the Tier 2 space, and its fo-
cused on synergistic deals that can be
integrated into L3, versus the straight
financial roll-ups that characterized
L3s early days in M&A, Cowens
Cai von Rumohr says. Moreover, the
current low-interest-rate environment
increases the potential for accretive
deals to further boost 2018 earnings
per share. Unlike the larger primes,
L3 faces negligible risk of regulatory
hurdles to its M&A.
All of these scenarios focus on tra-
28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017
AURORA FLIGHT SCIENCES
ditional M&A among legacy aerospace
and defense manufacturers and provid-
ers. They do not include M&A involving
private equity owners or through joint
ventures, partnerships and venture
capital (VC) investing, including the
growing ranks of corporate VC arms
within the legacy primes and OEMs.
Accordingly, joint ventures, venture
capital and other deal-making tools
outside traditional M&A may also
soon proliferate as heritage industry
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Monarchs Lessons
Brexit, one of many factors in the airlines
demise, remains a key concern for competitors
Helen Massy-Beresford Paris
D
isappointed passengers slumped
wearily on their suitcases in
crowded departure halls: It is
an all-too familiar scene. This time it
wasnt a strike, storm or computer
malfunction that left thousands of va-
cationers strandedit was the sudden
collapse on Oct. 2 of Monarch Airlines
after investor Greybull Capital balked
at injecting more money in the troubled
leisure operator to keep it going.
Monarch had weathered 50 years of
aviation highs and lows as a charter and
low-cost scheduled carrier, but it could
not, in the end, stand up to rising cost
pressure, increased security fears and
that big unknown: Brexit.
While the suddenness of Mon-
archs collapse was unexpected, its
bankruptcy is no great surprise, says
Loizos Heracleous, professor of strat-
egy at Warwick Business School. The
turnaround plan implemented when
Greybull Capital came to the rescue in
Boeings move to acquire Aurora
Flight Sciences would bring in new
technology across A&D, including
Auroras work on the fuel-efcient
D8 airliner project.
players face demands to fnd new tech-
nology oferings fast, or globalize their
footprints.
KPMG riffs on these changes as
additional proof that this time is dif-
ferent: A&D deal-making capabilities
will likely also need to evolve, in part
to refect a new type of acquisition tar-
getone where intellectual property
and talent matter more than assets
and inventory, say Gates and Mayor.
But growth-driven A&D players will
also likely need to broaden their focus
to overseas markets and new inno-
vative capabilities, as well as [their]
ability to execute nontraditional M&A
transaction, e.g., partnerships and al-
liances, particularly when looking to
capitalize on new growth markets and
partnership opportunities. c
2014reducing feet size, cutting costs
and refocusing on proftable routes
did not go far enough. Costs at Mon-
arch still remained signifcantly above
those of key competitors such as Ry-
anair, which made Monarch vulnerable
to price wars and variations in demand
in the intensely competitive low-cost
airline sector, Heracleous says.
After its turnaround in 2015, Mon-
arch was seeking to increase scale,
either by making acquisitions itself or
by being acquired by another low-cost
carrier, he adds. None of these options
worked out, however, leaving Monarch
in a very difcult strategic position
competing in a cutthroat sector, with-
out the scale, brand strength and ef-
ciency needed to survive in that sector.
Even if they benefit from greater
scale, other budget carriers based or
with major operations in the UK will be
looking closely at the factors that led to
Monarchs sudden demise for clues on
AviationWeek.com/awst
how to navigate the uncertainty of the
next few months and years.
Amid calls for an inquiry into what
went wrong for Monarch and the huge
cost to the UK taxpayer of repatriat-
ing stranded passengersand while
more details emerge of Boeings role
in keeping the airline fying in its fnal
monthscarriers such as Ryanair,
EasyJet, TUI and Thomas Cook Air-
lines will be focusing on the factors un-
derlying Monarchs collapse.
First on the list are the security is-
sues that have sapped travel demand to
destinations such as Tunisia and Egypt,
which forced Monarch to channel pas-
sengers into more traditional Mediter-
ranean leisure destinations, including
Spain and Portugal.
Unfortunately for Monarch, its big-
ger rivals had the same idea, and with
only about 6 million passengers last
year, the ailing airline did not have the
market clout to compete.
Ultimately, Monarchs exit will help
the other low-cost players still in busi-
ness, Heracleous says, although be-
cause of its small size, it will not help
much. The underlying structure of the
industry will not change, he says.
But in the short term, rivals such as
EasyJet and Norwegian will be looking
to take over Monarchs valuable slots,
including at Londons Luton and Gat-
wick airports, and Monarchs former
competitors may snap up some of its
2,100 employees facing layofs, includ-
ing about 400 pilots.
There is another factor as well: Brexit
cannot be blamed entirely for the Mon-
arch collapse, but the pounds fall since
the referendum has driven up costs
for all budget airlines, which largely
earn their revenues in pounds but pay
for fuel and leasing in U.S. dollars and
European airport charges in euros. It
has also diminished spending power
for cost-conscious consumers who now
are more likely to favor a staycation.
Budget carriers still in operation
are concerned about the rising costs
related to Brexitboth for themselves
and their customersbut a much more
pressing concern is the uncertainty
over their trafc rights and the rules on
foreign ownership of airlines once the
UK leaves the European Union (EU).
Airlines have repeatedly sounded the
alarm on the lack of clarity as UK-EU
negotiations continue. Schedule plan-
ning for 2019 will begin at the start of
2018, so carriers need to know if they
will be allowed to operate.
AviationWeek.com/awst
UK airlines could fnd they have to Industry observers believe a solution
stop fyingits that serious, says Brian will be found, But the contingency plans
Strutton, general secretary of the Brit- airlines are putting in placesuch as
ish Airline Pilots Association. This EasyJets creation of an air operator
would impact passengers long before certificate in Austriahighlight how
March 2019 because airlines couldnt serious the consequences would be if an
sell advance tickets and, frankly, would agreement cannot be found. It is in no-
passengers risk buying them? It is ut- bodys interest to end up in a situation
ter madness for anyone to think that a where either UK or European airlines
Brexit no deal would be anything but a networks are disrupted, says Herac-
total disaster for our world-leading UK leous. Businesses are more adaptive
aviation sector and beyond. than politics. c
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AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 29
 BUSINESS AVIATION

Building Wave nearby Henderson Executive Airport.

While the media was focusing most-
ly on program updates and industry
Business aviation confdence is growing, news, much of the private conversa-
tions around the booths were about
but orders and new projects are still pending the broad array of new aircraft either
poised to enter service, be launched or
Guy Norris, John Morris and Molly McMillin Las Vegas selected for development. Jetcraft, the
international aircraft sales, marketing

T
he news at a subdued National
Business Aviation Association
2017 show was more about what
was not announced, while the in-
creased tempo of behind-the-scenes
activity suggests next years event
could well be brimming with new air-
craft launches.
Inevitably overshadowed by the
mass shooting tragedy that struck the
city just a week before the convention,
the event nonetheless attracted around
27,000 attendees and had a sold-out
static display of 100 aircraft, reflect-
ing growing confdence in the return-
ing strength across many sectors of
the business jet market. Highlights in-
cluded the show debut of Bombardiers
Global 7000, the largest purpose-made
business jet ever developed, and the
appearance of the second PC-24 proto-
type, underlining Pilatus Aircrafts con-
fdence in the near-term completion of
the light jets certifcation test program.
Textron opened the orderbook for its
new large-cabin Citation Hemisphere,
while Embraer introduced its internally
redesigned Phenom 300E. New prob-
lems with Safrans Silvercrest engine,
which is slated to power the Hemi-
sphere, emerged to threaten further de-
lays to the troubled Dassault 5X beyond
2020 (see article below). Gulfstream,
which had been widely tipped to reveal
plans for a new large-cabin aircraft
loosely dubbed the G400NG, focused
instead on updates to the G500 and
G600 programs. The manufacturer also
displayed the frst fully outftted cabin
for the G600 at the static display at
and ownership strategies consultancy,
revealed many of these projects when
it developed its latest 10-year forecast.
Jetcraft fnds that designers of new
aircraft are refreshing some of the cur-
rently popular modelsand developing
plans for new ones. Most activity is in
the large to ultra-long-range categories,
where more expensive airplanes gener-
ate more revenue. Not counting at least
four potential supersonic business air-
craft already announced, Jetcraft fore-
casts as many as 19 new aircraft will
enter service in 2017-23. In the very
light jet category, these include updates
to the Cessna M2+ Mustang and Em-
braer Phenom 100V+; light jet projects
include the Learjet 70XR and Phenom
300E. Other new projects identifed in
the super-light sector are the Learjet

SAFRAN
TROUBLING TIMES
Guy Norris Las Vegas

D assault Aviation and Safran Aircraft Engines are planning

what is certain to be an intense meeting to devise a new
schedule for the already delayed Falcon 5X big-cabin business
jet, following more problems with the aircrafts Silvercrest
engine.
Some glitches related to engine development have already
delayed the aircrafts entry into service to 2020, and Eric Trap-
pier, Dassaults chairman and CEO, says it is too early to know
the full extent of how the new round of delays will afect the
revised schedule. First announced at the National Business Compressor surge margin issues were discovered
during envelope-expansion fights of the improved
Aviation Association (NBAA) annual convention in 2006, the
Silvercrest engine mounted on Safrans Gulfstream II
Silvercrest was launched by Dassault to power the Falcon 5X, fying testbed.
whose originally targeted entry-into-service date was 2017.
Safran informed us, just before we left for NBAA-Las Vegas, in development close to the Silvercrests 11,450-lb.-thrust class.
that ongoing tests have revealed some performance issues with We are now trying to fx the problem with Safran and to keep all
the high-pressure compressor (HPC), Trappier says, clearly our options open, Trappier says. He adds that the consequences
exasperated by this new snag. We have not yet analyzed all the of this unfortunate issue and defning an appropriate solution will
consequences, but we already know that the 5Xs entry into ser- take some time.
vice, which was rescheduled to 2020, will be delayed again. Safrans commercial engines vice president, Cedric Goubet,
Trappier says it is also too early to say whether the latest says the extent of the delay will depend on the particular set of
hitch might push Dassault to consider an alternative engine sup- fxes selected. He also confrms that the revised schedule will be
plier. However, despite signs of renewed interest in the mid- and known before year-end: The Silvercrest is an all-new engine but
super-midsize engine market, there are no other new turbofans with proven technologies and is aimed at reaching performance

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst

75XR and Cessna XLS+, while in the
super-midsize arena it identifies the
Challenger 350+ with a targeted debut
in 2022.
In the large-cabin category, Jetcraft
forecasts the development of the Chal-
lenger 700, Cessna Hemisphere, Em-
braer Legacy 700 and, potentially in
2022, the Gulfstream G400NG. The
super-large sector could finally see
Dassaults Falcon 5X around 2021 and,
with more certainty, the Gulfstream
G500 next year. Similarly the report
includes the debut of the ultra-long-
range Global 7000 in 2018 and, over
following years, the service entry of
the Global 8000 and Gulfstream G600.
It also speculates that Dassaults next
new program will be dubbed the Falcon
9X, while Gulfstream may soon unveil a
new project called the G750. Of note is
the projected emergence of a business
jet version of Bombardiers C Series for
service entry around 2021.
Jetcraft was one of several compa-
nies to forecast solid growth with the
global business aviation installed base
of just more than 21,000 aircraft, ex-
pected to surpass 28,000 (net retire-
ments) in 2026. With 33% growth over
the forecast period, Jetcrafts 2017 fore-
cast calls for 8,349 unit deliveries repre-
senting $252 billion in revenues (based
on 2017 pricing) to be realized by 2026.
Honeywell Aerospaces 2018-27 fore-
cast, meanwhile, projects 10-year global
demand for 8,300 business jet deliver-
ies worth $249 billion. Including com-
mercial airliners modifed into business
aircraft, the forecast projects demand
for 8,600 aircraft worth $264 billion and
predicts 2017 deliveries of 620-640 new
jets, a decline of about 30 jets from 2016
fgures. As orders slow for mature air-
craft models, many buyers are waiting
for new models to enter service, says
Gaetan Handfield, Honeywell senior
manager of market research.
Many also are waiting for used air-
craft pricing to frm up before they trade
up to a new business jet. There are
several new and exciting aircraft mod-
els coming to market, which will drive
solid growth in new business purchases
in the midterm and long term, says Ben
Driggs, president of Honeywell Aero-
space Americas Aftermarket. In 2018,
deliveries are expected to improve by
15 to 20 business jets over 2017 results,
followed by 3-4% annual increases in the
years that follow, the forecast says.
Underlying market conditions also
support increased optimism, says Dean
Roberts, director of marketing analy-
sis for Rolls-Royces business aircraft.
There is a lot of confidence that the
leading economic indicators are in posi-
tive territory for the long term of busi-
ness aviation in the U.S. Whats more
intriguing is that the rest of the market
has now turned into positive territory.
In China, customer confdence is very
positive. For the past two years, inter-
national trade has been close to record
lows over a 20-year period, and . . . over
the last 3-4 quarters . . . it has gone
strongly positive. Thats a good sign for
long-range business jets, says Roberts.
Rolls-Royce also tracks activity with
luxury brands such as Louis Vuitton,
Burberry and Tifanys and the buying
patterns of high-net-worth individuals.
Over the past 3-4 quarters, thats . . .
gone pretty close to exponential. On
that basis, we would expect the order
intake to start to uptick in maybe 6-12
months time, Roberts adds. c

levels unrivaled for this market segment. This quest has been
more challenging than originally thought, he acknowledges.
Problems cropped up in September during fight tests of the
latest confguration of the Silvercrest incorporating improve-
ments destined for the service-entry standard on the -5X. We
had made a lot of progress, and solutions to most of our previous
difculties were validated and verifed during the tests of this
new confguration. But then this issue appeared; clearly it was
very disappointing, says Goubet.
During tests on the companys Gulfstream II fying testbed,
the HPC sufered acceleration, deceleration and stall issues at
high-altitude and low-speed conditions. The GII is capable of fy-
ing at 45,000 ft. and the potential for additional efciency gains
was being investigated when the problems occurred.
In an unusual confguration for an engine in this higher-thrust
range, the compressor combines a four-stage axial unit with a
single centrifugal stage. The issue is with the axial part, not the
centrifugal, confrms Goubet, who adds that the problem has
nothing to do with the overall architecture of the compressor.
We have to optimize the settings of the compressor and
maybe introduce some modifcations to really recover all the
[surge] margin we need to operate as expected across the fight
envelope, Goubet says. However, we have enough knowledge
to know it is unlikely that it will be sufcient to merely optimize
the settings, the control laws and positioning of the variable sta-
tor vanes. That will help to achieve a portion [of the losses] but
not all the way. We may look at some fowpath modifcations,
but we want to minimize that, and we will not add stages or
vanes, he says.
Meanwhile, the engine continues to fy a restricted fight
envelope on the GII, and data continues to help guide Safrans
engineering team to the best solution. The engine can still be
used in its current confguration for several certifcation tests,
according to Safran.
The latest fight-test discovery is bad, but it is not a catas-
trophe, Goubet says, striving to strike a balance. We remain
confdent well achieve what we set out to do with this engine .
. . and in the progress weve made with this engine over the past
two years. . . . We will get there with a competitive engine in this
market segment.
The engine has also been selected for Textron Aviations
Citation Hemisphere, and although the U.S. manufacturer says
it remains committed to the Silvercrest, it is unclear whether
the newest delay may impact this program, which is slated for
frst fight in 2019. Meanwhile, Dassault continues fight tests
of the Falcon 5X powered by an interim standard of Silvercrest
engine. Since making its frst fight on July 5, the prototype
has amassed around 50 fight hours and achieved a top speed
of Mach 0.8 and maximum altitude of 41,000 ft. We are very
happy with the way the aircraft handles and also with the perfor-
mance of the systems. The aircraft has a new generation of the
digital fight-control system, and from what we have seen so far
it works very well, says Olivier Villa, senior executive vice presi-
dent of Dassault Falcon Civil Aircraft. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 31

 BIOFUELS
Running on Fumes
Severe lag in biofuel production could
hobble emission-reduction goals
Kerry Reals Geneva
W
ith efciency gains from air-
frame and engine technology
improvements considered in-
sufcient to meet the International Air
Transport Associations (IATA) 2050
emissions-reduction target, the only
conceivable way to do so is through
the widespread use of biofuels. But
concerns over the speed at which sus-
tainable aviation fuels can be certied
and supplies sufcient produced leave
a question as to whether the industry
will be able halve its carbon-dioxide
(CO2) emissions in the next 33 years.
Speakers at the Air Transport Ac-
tion Group (ATAG) Global Sustainable
Aviation Summit here acknowledged
that meeting the 2050 emissions tar-
get would be very challenging and a will be further into the future than pro-
monumental task. However, industry
representatives are still hoping its
record and experience in innovating
and achieving the seemingly impos-
sible will put it in a strong position to
address the emissions challenge.
Alan Epstein, vice president of
technology and environment at Pratt
& Whitney, says that none of the 50%
reduction will come from [aircraft]
technology, when considered against
the rapid rate at which the air trans-
port sector is growing.
Technology will barely let us keep
up, Epstein says. The only way we
will reduce CO2 substantially is to go to
low-carbon energy. For aviation, this
means use of alternative fuels, he adds.
32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017
UNITED AIRLINES
There are 33 years remaining
on our collective pledge on CO2, and
propulsion will be a key part of that,
says Epstein, referring to the Pratt
& Whitney geared turbofan. The fu-
ture will be geared engines running on
low-carbon sustainable jet fuels. That
is the only way of reducing CO2 from
our transport aircraft.
Electrication is another option, and
there have been recent developments
on this front, including EasyJet parter-
ing with U.S. company Wright Electric
to develop an all-electric, short-haul
aircraft within a decade. But the con-
sensus among experts at the ATAG
summit was that achieving electric and
hybrid-electric ights, while promising,
duction of biofuels and unlikely to be
suitable for long-haul aircraft.
There are signs that the fledgling
sustainable aviation fuel sector is
starting to ramp up, but there is a long
way to go before the volume needed to
meet the 2050 target can be produced.
Bruno Miller, managing director of
fuels at Fulcrum BioEnergy, is con-
cerned about the speed at which dif-
ferent sustainable fuel pathways are
being certied, noting: One fuel ap-
proved every year is great, but we cant
wait 25 years to get fuels approved. We
should be approving ve to six a year.
Even if sufcient volume can be pro-
ducedand ATAG Executive Director
Michael Gill believes that up to 100%
The airline industry has been slow to
follow United Airlines lead in buying
biofuels in commercial quantities.
of the fuel in 2050 could be from sus-
tainable sources, with the right policy
measures in placeconservationists
question the environmental impact.
Brad Schallert, deputy director of
international climate cooperation at
the World Wildlife Fund, told summit
delegates he nds some of the proj-
ects [devoted to operating] a large
amount of aviation . . . on biofuels
troubling. While there are some good
fuels out there, Schallert says, how
do we know that a large amount wont
have a bad efect on the biosphere?
Ron van Manen, program manager
of the EUs Clean Sky 2 Joint Under-
taking, points out that with global air
transport traffic growing by 4-5% a
year, by 2050 the sector could be four
times the size it was in 2005. That
would leave a significant gap to be
lled by biofuels, he says, adding and
I dont see that happening.
ATAGs Gill says IATA believes
a basket of measures is needed to
achieve the longer-term environmental
goalsincluding development of alter-
native fuels and new technology, plus
air traffic management reformbut
that limiting growth is not an option.
Our analysis has always been based
on decoupling the growth in trafc from
the growth in emissions, Gill tells Avia-
tion Week. Trying to put an articial
barrier on [air transport growth] would
not have a good efect. Developing coun-
tries would be loath to see their eco-
nomic growth slowing down.
There are calls for the aviation in-
dustry to accelerate its pace to reduce
emissions because, as Ovais Sarmad,
deputy executive secretary of the Unit-
ed Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, puts it, we no longer
have the luxury of time.
Tomorrow is now today. Climate
change is happening before our eyes,
and the action we take within the next
ve years will determine whether we
are successful or not, says Sarmad.
While the industry has made prog-
ress, its climate footprint continues to
grow rapidly, he says. We understand
and recognize your eforts to become
more sustainable and that youve made
significant progress. We understand
what we are asking you to do is not easy,
but neither is the task at hand. c
AviationWeek.com/awst
 DEFENSE
Future Army
The U.S. service prioritizes next-gen
James Drew Washington
T
he U.S. Army is reforming how it buys weapons in what
may be its most signifcant acquisition shake-up in more
than 40 years. Acting Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy
has directed the consolidation of the materiel concept, de-
velopment and procurement process from idea to delivery
under one new overarching command.
Recommendations regarding this new command will come
from a new task force headed by Lt. Gen. Ed Cardon, which
this month embarked on a 120-day review process of all
Army acquisition. The impetus is a growing realization that
the Army is modernizing too slowly and losing its long-held
advantage against Russia and China in long-range artillery,
munitions, armor, mobility and air defense.
The command will be charged with executing the Armys
new modernization strategy and addressing six key areas,
listed by funding priority: 1) long range-precision fres, 2) next-
generation combat vehicles, 3) future vertical lift platforms,
4) mobile and expeditionary networking, 5) air and missile
defense capabilities and 6) soldier lethality.
Speaking at the Association of the U.S. Armys (AUSA)
annual exposition in Washington, McCarthy said his service
is at an infection point and must reform how its procures
weaponry if it is to prevail in future conficts.
The equipment our soldiers usethe Abrams, Bradley,
Black Hawk, Apache and Patriotwere designed in the 1970s,
felded in the 1980s and battle-tested in the 1990s during
Operation Desert Storm and the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Mc-
Carthy said. These systems have been continuously and in-
crementally upgraded since their debut, but there is a limit to
the incremental improvements that can be made before they
no longer ofer the degree of overmatch the Army requires.
McCarthys vision is Army modernization under one roof,
with earlier operator input into weapon system development
and more prototyping. The command will be formed from
existing organizations and force structures and report directly
to the Armys vice chief of staf as well as McCarthy, who was
recently confrmed as the services undersecretary.
For Army Chief of Staf Gen. Mark Milley, the reason for
shaking up the acquisition construct is simple: If you dont
adapt to the changing environment, you die, he says.
Continual low-intensity conficts in the Middle East since
2001 and the collapse of major modernization initiatives like
the Boeing-Sikorsky RAH-66 Comanche and Future Combat
Systems has led the Army to invest in spiraled protection
and lethality upgrades for its primary rotorcraft and ground
vehicles, instead of producing next-generation systems. Over
the past two decades, it has shortchanged its short-range air
defense and long-range artillery
programs in favor of immediate The Armys No. 3
priorities. modernization priority
Milley says its new modern- is a family of next-
ization priorities refect a pivot generation rotorcraft
back to the fundamentals of land to eventually replace
warfare: shoot, move, communi- the long-serving
cate, protect and sustain. UH-60 Black Hawk
If pressed into a conflict, and AH-64 Apache.
AviationWeek.com/awst
Milley says, the Army needs Operation Desert Storm-like
overmatch. Those priorities are not randomly out there,
he explains. We want to win by ofense and mastering the
fundamentals. You dont win on the defense.
Of the modernization priorities, the Army is specifcally
looking at a family of next-generation combat vehicles and
rotorcraft rather than block upgrades. For long-range pre-
cision fres, air and missile defense, networks and soldier
lethality, it is pursuing a mix of additional current-generation
weaponry with upgrades, modifcations and new equipment.
Milley and McCarthy made it clear during their joint press
conference at AUSA that these modernization priorities will
take the lions share of new investmentand programs that
are not a priority could be reviewed and eliminated.
Many eforts are underway, such as the Long-Range Preci-
sion Fires program to develop a slimmer, longer-range succes-
sor to the 1980s-era Army Tactical Missile System (Atacms).
Raytheon and Lockheed Martin are under contract to develop
competing prototypes of a 400-499-km (250-310-mi.) guided
ballistic missile under a 34-month technology maturation and
risk-reduction phase. Raytheon is ofering its new DeepStrike
missile, with frst fight test planned for 2019.
The Army is also ramping up its investment in multido-
main weapons to target threats on land, at sea, in the air and
even space or cyberspace. To target ships, it is experimenting
with a seeker-enabled Maritime Atacms and funded a live
demonstration of Raytheon and Kongsbergs land-fred Naval
Strike Missile. The Army is developing a purpose-built system
through the Land-Based Anti-Ship Missile program, which
will develop and demonstrate technologies for engaging and
defeating air defense artillery systems, program ofcials say.
For next-generation rotorcraft, the Bell Helicopter V-280
Valor and Sikorsky-Boeing SB-1 Defant will soon enter fight
testing under the Armys Joint Multi-Role Technology Dem-
onstrator program, a precursor to the Army-led, multiservice
Future Vertical Lift acquisition program. The V-280, a third-
generation tiltrotor, will fy within the next month, and the
SB-1 is being prepped for fight by mid-2018.
For short-range air defense and counter-UAV missions, the
showroom foor at AUSA was flled with combat vehicles out-
ftted with AIM-9X, Hellfre and Stinger counter-air missiles
as well as laser systems with beam-steering turrets. All the
big-name defense contractors are getting involved, presenting
modifed short-range air defense systems. c
SIKORSKY/BOEING
AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 33
 DEFENSE
Expanding
Two-seat version and European weapons
added to Seouls new ghter
Bradley Perrett Beijing and Kim Minseok Seoul
T
he Korea Aerospace Industries
(KAI) KF-X ghter keeps grow-
ing. What began as a concept
design as big as the Eurofighter Ty-
phoon has repeatedly gained length
and wingspan and is now likely to be
heavier than that earlier aircraft.
The indigenous fighter will have
a two-seat version, developers have
conrmed, following years of depic-
tions of it with just one seat. And the
type will be equipped with MBDA
Meteor and Diehl IRIS-T air-to-air
missiles, says South Koreas defense
procurement ofce, outlining a plan
to avoid complete reliance on U.S.
weapons.
The twin-engine KF-X is intended to
y in 2022. The Republic of Korea Air
Force and KAI have said the service
will receive its rst unit in 2024, but
KF-Xs delivered before 2026 must be
developmental units. The rst version
is not due to be fully developed until
2026 and will lack features intended
for later variants. Indonesia is a junior
partner in the KF-X program.
The defense ministrys Agency
for Defense Development (ADD) led
preliminary design and is still deeply
involved as KAI works on detail
development. The military procure-
ment ofce, the Defense Acquisition
Program Administration (DAPA),
chose the General Electric F414 engine
for the KF-X in 2016.
The newest design, C107, is the lat-
est in a series that began sometime
before 2012. The iteration numbered
C104 was chosen as the basis of the
KF-X when Lockheed Martin won the
separate F-X Phase 3 import competi-
tion in 2013 with the F-35 Lightning;
the competition winner was required
to support KF-X development.
This design series has featured tail-
planes; an alternative concept with ca-
nard control surfaces would have been
used had a European supplier won F-X
Phase 3. Designs before C107 have
been shown only as single-seaters,
though a model of a two-seat version
was glimpsed on a television report
about KAI in 2016. In describing C107,
34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017
ofcials have conrmed that a second
seat will be available.
The extra place is unrelated to the
increase in size. Rather, the aircraft
has been enlarged to create more
space and to give it a better aerody-
namic shape, DAPA ofcials said at a
brieng on the program.
Thanks to DAPAs release of low-
resolution plan drawings of the latest
ve design iterations, it is now pos-
With development
due to be completed in
2026, the KF-Xs wing
and fuselage have
both grown during
several design
iterations.
KF-X Design Evolution
Design C103 (2012)
Span 10.7 m (35.2 ft)
Length 15.6 m (51.3 ft.)*
Height 4.5 m (14.8 ft.)
Empty Weight 10.9 metric tons
Maximum Takeoff Weight 24 metric tons
Dry Thrust (X 2) > 12,000 lb.
Afterburning Thrust (X 2) > 18,000 lb.
*Previously stated as 15.7 m n.a.: not available
sible to tell some of the story of the
evolution of the KF-X since 2012. Al-
though the aircraft has grown and the
wing has been enlarged, the designers
have stuck with the planform of the
mainplane: It has 40 deg. of leading-
edge sweep, 10 deg. of forward sweep
on the trailing edge and an aspect
ratio of 2.7.
The first design in the series was
C101. By 2012, it had evolved to C103,
which had the general configuration
that has persisted until now. At the time
of program launch, C103 was thought
to be the current design, but in 2014
designers had proceeded to C104, add-
ing conformal antennas and refining
the placement of internal equipment.
Low-resolution drawings suggest little
change to the external shape, if any.
The dimensions of C104 are un-
known, but C105, from 2016, was big-
ger than C103. Span rose to 11 m (36 ft.)
from 10.7 m (see table) and length
by 40 cm (16 in.). At least half of the
lengthening was probably associated
with enlargement of the wing, since the
chord and therefore the carry-through
structure in the fuselage had to be lon-
ger. The wing was moved back in rela-
tion to the fuselage, so its trailing edges
were now behind the leading edges of
the ns. The fuselage appears to have
been slightly widened.
Also, the canopy shape changed to
improve some unstated aspect of per-
formance, perhaps stealth, while the
F414 was incorporated and the intake
design was revised. The F414 was the
bulkiest and most powerful engine un-
der consideration, so its selection may
C103 C104
C105 (2016) C107 (2017) Euroghter Typhoon
11 m (36.1 ft.) 11.2 m (36.7 ft.) 10.9 m (35.9 ft.)
16 m (52.5 ft.) 16.8 m (55.1 ft.) 15.9 m (52.3 ft.)
n.a. 4.8 m (15.7 ft.) 5.3 m (17.3 ft.)
11.1 metric tons n.a. 11.2 metric tons
24.5 metric tons n.a. 23.5 metric tons
14,000 lb. 14,000 lb. 13,500 lb.
22,000 lb. 22,000 lb. 20,000 lb.
Sources: DAPA, Euroghter, U.S. Navy
have had something to do with the en-
largement of the design.
Despite these changes, empty mass
rose only 2%, to 11.1 metric tons, sug-
gesting weight savings had been found.
The aircraft was still just a little light-
er than the Typhoon, the ghter with
which the KF-X has been most compa-
rable in size.
Further growth appeared in C106:
span, wing area and fuselage length all
increased. The cockpit moved forward.
The dimensions of C106 are unknown
but C107, for which figures are avail-
able, is apparently about the same size.
While C107s span, up 20 cm, is only
modestly greater than C105s, the fuse-
lage is considerably longer. The aircraft
is now fully 1.2 m longer than it was in
the C103 concept. Empty mass is un-
available but it is now likely to be sig-
AviationWeek.com/awst
nicantly greater than the Typhoons.
The shapes of the forward fuselage
and the inlets have been improved in
C107. The wing roots are extended
forward, blending with the fuselage,
while the tail ns have moved forward
and, with trailing edges now swept for-
ward at a greater angle than before,
are almost cropped triangles. They
have probably been heightened in com-
pensation for the loss of moment arm
caused by their relocation; the whole
aircraft has gained 30 cm of height
from C103s 4.5 m.
The engines were closely spaced be-
fore C107; now they are farther apart,
improving survivability and providing
volume between them. The nose is
blunter in plan, rather like that on de-
signs for Japans proposed indigenous
C105
ghter. More changes can be expected,
because three more design iterations
will be prepared by June 2018.
The reason for the second seat has
not been disclosed. Fighters designed
before the 1990s routinely have two-
seat versions. In some cases, the
second seat is now used not just for
training but for carrying another crew
member in combat, as became popu-
lar during and after the Vietnam War.
But the F-22 Raptor, F-35 and Avic
Chengdu J-20 have only single-seat
versions, relying on advanced simula-
tion to prepare pilots for solo ights.
Provision for a second seat in the KF-X
may indicate that the types avionics
will not be sufficiently advanced to
support the most demanding strike
missions without two crew members.
MBDA and Diehl have agreed to
supply Meteor and IRIS-T missiles,
respectively, says DAPA, presumably
meaning that terms have been settled.
But South Korea still needs the per-
mission of Germany to use the IRIS-
T and from the countries behind the
MBDA consortiumBritain, France
and Italyfor the Meteor. There is no
indication of when government autho-
rization will be received. The Meteor
and IRIS-T are long- and short-range
AviationWeek.com/awst
air-to-air missiles, respectively.
South Korea also plans to use the
most equivalent U.S. weapons, the
AIM-120 Amraam and AIM-9 Side-
winder. Negotiations for integration of
those missiles are not complete, DAPA
says. Washington agreed in June to
give technical information on its two
air-to-air missiles and nine other U.S.
weapons, but this will only be data of
the level called 1A: size, weight and ba-
sic interface particulars. South Korea
is still seeking level 1B information: full
interface data needed for integrating
and operating the weapons.
Full-scale development of the
KF-X began in late 2015 after years
of national debate. One objective is to
free South Korea from depending on
Washingtons permission in integrat-
C106 C107
COLIN THROM/AW&ST
ing weapons, as it must when it buys
fighters straight from the U.S. and
would if it equipped the KF-X with
U.S. avionics.
A related objective is to avoid the
U.S. vetoing an export contract for the
KF-X by withholding the weapons from
the intended customer. But the ghter
will be subject to U.S. export controls,
anyway, because it will use the F414.
Cobham will supply weapon car-
riage and launch equipment for the de-
velopment program under a contract
that probably sets the company up for
volume production.
The ejection launcher, featuring a
long stroke to shove weapons safely
away from the aircraft at 9 m per sec.,
suits the AIM-120 and Meteor, says
Cobham, announcing its order. The
company will deliver an unspecified
number of launchers in 2020 under the
contract, which it says is worth more
than 7 million ($9.2 million).
The timing and value indicate that
this is a contract for equipment for
prototype and perhaps early produc-
tion aircraft, probably also including
engineering support.
Cobham does not mention the pros-
pect of supplying the launcher for the
full production run of KF-Xs, but a sat-
AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017
isfactory supplier to the developmental
stage of a program is well placed for
follow-on volume work.
The launcher suits carriage and
ejection of internally and externally
mounted weapons, Cobham says.
The KF-X was initially designed with
a weapon bay, but installation of this
feature has been deferred until a sec-
ond version is developed.
Elsewhere in the program, a criti-
cal foreign authorization has been
received. In April, Washington said
Indonesia could have access to U.S.
technology used in KF-X development,
though it seems unlikely that it will re-
ceive all the information shared with
South Korea. Lockheed Martin has
sent 30 engineers to KAI, DAPA says.
By the end of the year, that number
will grow to 40. Indonesia has sent 80
engineers to KAI.
South Korea is developing four ma-
jor avionics systems for the KF-X: a
radar with an active, electronically
scanned array (AESA); an infrared
search-and-track system; an electro-
optical targeting pod; and an elec-
tronic warfare suite.
Radar development is due to be
completed by 2026 at a cost of 360 bil-
lion won ($320 million), says DAPA.
The sensor will have about 1,000
transmit-and-receive modules. Criti-
cal design review for the radar is due
in mid-2019.
Hanwha and ADD are building what
they call a hardware demonstration
model, combining a Hanhwa AESA
antenna and power supply with a re-
ceiver-exciter and processor from Elta
Systems Ltd. The Israeli company was
chosen this year to validate Hanwhas
radar development program, but its
role will evidently be rather deeper
than that.
Hanwha completed the antenna
and power supply in June, says DAPA,
adding that the two components will
be sent to Elta in September for as-
sembly into a complete radar that will
be tested until March 2018.
Another item, called AESA tech-
nology demonstration equipment,
has been built. Tested in the back of
a C-130H transport with the rear door
open, it had about 400 transmit-and-
receive modules.
South Korea requires 120 KF-Xs and
60 KAI FA-50 light-attack aircraft to
replace 34 Lockheed Martin F-16 Block
32s and 140 F-5E/Fs. Indonesia report-
edly wants to buy 50 KF-Xs. c
35
 ROTORCRAFT
Going Greener
Tony Osborne London
T
he rapid growth in ofshore wind
farms is generating a new and
rapidly growing market for heli-
copters. Vast felds of turbines are be-
ing used to harvest ofshore winds as
countries turn to wind power to meet
future energy demands and greener
political agendas. And a handful of air-
craftoperating mostly in Denmark,
Germany and the UKare being used
to support them.
The number of helicopters involved
in supporting these projects looks set
to expand as the turbines not only grow
larger but also move farther ofshore.
According to Airbus Helicopters, as
many as 10,000 new turbines will be
installed over the next 20 years, and
the company believes that with at least
one helicopter required to support 80
turbines, the market will need at least
125 helicopters to enable that growth.
And that is not just in Europe: More
wind farms are also being planned for
the U.S. East Coast and Southeast Asia.
These turbines, along with their un-
manned offshore substations (OSS),
require regular maintenance and in-
spections. While this could be done
by ship, the sheer size of the turbine
felds, the risks in transferring person-
nel from ships, and the topside loca-
tion of much of the equipment needing
servicing means that helicopters are
better-suited to the task. It is compa-
rable to how the helicopter has become
a critical tool for the ofshore oil and
gas industry.
Most large turbines are now built
with support by helicopter in mind. The
turbine nacelle, which contains most
of the generating equipment and the
pivoting elements, are equipped with
hoisting platforms so that technicians
36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017
Helicopters are fnding a role in
the rapid rise of wind energy
Current regulations put a limit on the size of the aircraft that can be used
for wind-farm support, but larger types may be needed as turbines move
farther ofshore.
and their equipment can be winched
down to perform maintenance work.
When required, the turbines are
designed to move into a feathered
positionlike an upside-down three-
pointed starso that a helicopter can
perform a winching operation safely,
without conflict between helicopter
and turbine blades.
The current regulatory framework
for wind-farm helicopter operations is
based on the UK Civil Aviation Author-
itys CAP 437 requirements. These call
for helicopters to stay at least the diam-
eter of one rotor away from the back of
the turbine blade, while the rotor-blade
tip should stay at least 4 m (13 ft.) from
the turbine blade.
These rules put restrictions on how
the aircraft can be used. Currently,
wind-farm support contractors are us-
ing types such as the Airbus H135 and
H145 light-twins. Contracts have also
recently been awarded for use of Leon-
ardos AW169. But the regulations are in
their infancy, and there is recognition in
what is still a small industry that there
will soon be increased demands placed
on the helicopters and their crews.
Operators are concerned wind-farm
servicing will be pigeonholed as carry-
ing the same risks as for oil and gas.
Work on OSS do not carry the same
risk as on oil and gas platforms loaded
with fammable materials, they note.
The larger turbines mean helicop-
ters will need to be on-call virtually
around the clock to deal with any main-
tenance issues. The UKs Greater Gab-
bard wind farm, located 14 mi. of the
Norfolk coast, uses turbines capable of
generating 3.6 megawatts.
SIEMENS
If one of these turbines were shut
down and required maintenance, it
would be left until the next day, be-
cause the economic impact is relatively
minimal, Lars Christian Munch, an avi-
ation specialist with Danish renewable
energy company Dong Energy, said at
the Helitech event in London on Oct. 3.
But a new wave of larger-scale tur-
bines, measuring 180 m (590 ft.) from
sea level to the top of the turbine blade,
can produce 8 megawatts of electric-
ity. Manufacturers are even designing
turbines that will top 220 m in height.
One of these shutting down has an
impact on the economics of the farm,
said Munch. This will mean technicians
may soon have to be deployed to the
turbines and winched down even at
night, requiring training for new skill
sets, including the use of night-vision
goggles, as such farms become more
prevalent in the coming years.
Operators may also face the chal-
lenge of distance. Regardless of how
environmentally friendly the wind
farms may be, they remain something
of a blot on the landscape, so develop-
ers are building them farther out over
the horizon. Britains Hornsea Project
Onewhich will use 174 turbines to
produce 1.2 gigawatts of powerwill
be located 120 km (75 mi.) of the coast,
posing questions as to how helicopters
will be used to support them.
Among the ideas is to use the he-
lipad-equipped OSS as a base to per-
form hub-and-spoke operations. Heli-
copters would fy from the land base to
the OSS and then from there fy back
and forth to the turbines that need
maintaining. c
AviationWeek.com/awst
 RotoRcRAft
Peak Performance
Safrans Aneto provides engine alternative
for Leonardos AW189
Tony Osborne London
S
afran has lifted the covers
on a new family of dual-use
turboshaft engines envisaged for
super-medium-lift and future heavy-lift
helicopters.
The 2,500-3,000+ shp Aneto fam-
ily, named after the highest mountain
in the Pyrenees, builds on technolo-
gies from the RTM322the military
engine developed with Rolls-Royce
and now entirely owned by Safran
and the latters internally funded
Tech3000 research program.
Unveiled Oct. 3 during the Helitech
industry event in London, develop-
ment is so far along that the engine
has already undergone flight tests
and will be ofered as an alternative
powerplant for Leonardos AW189
twin-engine super-medium helicopter,
Safran says.
Leonardo
More than 35 fights with the 2,544-
shp Aneto-1K have been performed
in the reengined aircraft, which is
notionally referred to as the AW189K.
First fight took place on March 9,
and service entry is planned for the
fourth quarter of 2018.
Several more powerful versions of
the Aneto are set to follow later, with
the 3,000+ shp Dash 3 powerplant
likely to emerge in the early 2020s.
Previously, Safran turboshafts have
been developed in close coordination
with Airbus. Safrans Tech800 even-
tually emerged as the Arrano, com-
pleting development conveniently in
time for use on Airbuss H160 medium
AviationWeek.com/awst
The Aneto
family will evolve in
the coming years, with
the 3,000-shp version
emerging in the early 2020s.
helicopter, so it seems likely the more
powerful derivatives of Aneto could be
onboard Airbuss X6, the fy-by-wire re-
placement for the Super Puma family.
Florent Chauvancy, Safrans vice
president for heavy helicopter engine
programs, says his company has beat
the competition to market, noting that
the closest competitor is
the U.S. Armys Improved
Turbine Engine Program
powerplant, which is due
to enter service in 2025.
There is a market for
Leonardo plans to ofer
the Aneto alongside
the incumbent General
Electric CT7-2E1.
around 7,000 new super-
medium and -heavy heli-
copters over the next 20
years, says Chauvancy,
although not all that
market will be accessible.
Aneto is being promoted for heli-
copters in the 8-15-metric-ton catego-
ry. The X6, Indias indigenous Multi-
Role Helicopter, a mockup of which
was displayed at the Aero India air
show last February, could also beneft
from the Aneto family.
Safran contends that the engines
will deliver up to 25% more power
than similar engines of the same vol-
ume and could deliver a 15% increase
in fuel economy compared to current-
generation turbines.
These engines will share some
commonality, some characteris-
tics, some modules and parts, says
AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017
Chauvancy. But we will progressively
introduce new technology and ele-
ments to reach the 3,000-shp target.
As a result, Tech3000 develop-
ment will continue to run in
parallel, delivering the
building blocks for the
higher-power engine.
While the Aneto-1K
has a similar architec-
ture to the RTM322,
there are no common
parts. The more pow-
erful versions will fea-
ture a new compressor
and hot section.
Safran is also intro-
ducing advanced manufac-
turing processes. The inlet
guide vane system features
an
additive-manufactured parts,
fr
Sa
as does the gyratory combustion
chamber.
The engine has also been designed
to be ready for future hybrid and dis-
tributed power systems. Safran and
Airbus are jointly exploring the poten-
tial of an eco-mode, shutting down one
of the two engines in cruise fight and
then spinning up the second engine
using high-voltage electric motors
when the additional power is needed.
Leonardo is planning to offer the
Aneto alongside the incumbent Gen-
eral Electric CT7 engine.
The European helicopter manufac-
turer has generally shied away from
offering more than one powerplant
for its commercial models, although
it does ofer a Pratt & Whitney or Saf-
ran option for its AW109 light-twin.
Installation of the Aneto requires
some minor changes to the top-deck
structure and the engine cowls.
The engine is a good match, says
Chauvancy. It will improve the types
hot-and-high performance, boost the
mission capabilities and increase its
growth potential, he contends.
Because the Aneto is free of U.S.
International Trafc in Arms Regula-
tions, this could make it an attractive
powerplant for the AW189s military
derivative, the AW149, which the com-
pany is looking to export more widely.
As part of this, the airframer is also
working on a future attack helicopter
incorporating the AW149s dynamic
systems. The Aneto could play a part
in this program as well.
Leonardo says a new or alternative
engine for the AW149 is not a prior-
ity but does not rule out the Aneto. c
37
 RotoRcRAft
All-Seeing Eye
Eagle sensor could aid Airbuss vision
for urban air mobility
Tony Osborne London
A
irbus is beginning fight trials
of a new sensor that could pave
the way for fully autonomous
landings on oil rigs and helidecks.
Project EagleEye for Augmented
Guidance for Landing Extensionhas
already been through extensive ground
testing and is due to soon take fight on
one of the companys H225 demonstra-
tion aircraft.
The technology, which combines
high-definition cameras, image pro-
cessing and the companys experience
in four-axis autopilots, could assist Air-
buss vision for urban air mobility sys-
tems, allowing the air vehicles to land
at alternative landing zones as well as
provide a sense-and-avoid capability.
In its current prototype form, the
system has eight gyro-stabilized cam-
eras connected to an image processor
that uses algorithms to note the posi-
tion of a helipad or helideck on top of a
building. The processor then feeds data
into the aircrafts automatic fight con-
trol system and autopilot, and should,
if all goes to plan, allow the pilot to per-
form an entirely hands-of approach.
This is a frst step to full autonomy,
said Tomasz Krysinski, Airbus Helicop-
ters vice president for research and
technology, at the Helitech industry
event in London on Oct. 3. The key
38 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017
Airbus Helicopters
value of this is being able to couple this
technology with the autopilot; it takes
away considerable workload from the
pilot, he notes.
The company is working with some
yet-to-be disclosed startup companies
on the technology, and Krysinski antici-
pates the system will be ready by 2020.
The production version, he says,
will take the form of an electro-opti-
cal camera pod, similar to those used
on helicopters for surveillance duties.
This pod will be equipped with three
high-definition camera sensors con-
nected to the image-processing unit.
Once the cameras have been guided
to look at the landing point, the pro-
cessing software has been designed
to fnd typical helipad attributes. Heli-
decks and helipads are subject to regu-
latory standards, notably in terms of
layout and design. Although the mark-
ings and layout can difer globally, the
system can be trained to diferentiate
these elements.
Other algorithms in the system
can be used for object detection and
tracking as well as reduction of digital
noise, a by-product of image-capturing,
which often occurs when sensors are
tuned to high sensitivity. The noise can
impact the usability of the image.
A key advantage of the system is
that it requires no modifcation to the
landing sites.
Krysinski says the pilot could point
the camera at the helipad/deck on
which he/she wants to land to activate
the system, or the camera could po-
tentially be pointed using GPS coor-
dinates.
Later versions of the system could
also carry a laser to perform light-de-
Airbus envisages the Eagle making
landings on helipadssuch as this
one in downtown Mexico City
entirely autonomously.
tection and ranging (lidar) functions.
Krysinski says lidar would allow the
system to be used in poor-visibility
situations, although he notes that pro-
cessing algorithms and the blending of
imagery from cameras able to see in
other spectrums can improve the abil-
ity to peer through haze and mist.
Some electro-optical camera manu-
facturers already ofer such capabilities.
Adding lidar could aid in identifying
potential obstacles and other aircraft
in the vicinity, and Airbus Helicopters
is working on how best to display this
information to pilots.
Krysinski says the system could
also assist with landing on moving
platforms such ship decks, a capabil-
ity that could beneft the next genera-
tion of shipborne unmanned vertical-
takeof-and-landing (VTOL) systems.
It is unclear whether the system
would be compatible with the com-
panys VSR700 VTOL UAV, which is
based on the Guimbal Cabri light heli-
copter currently under development.
Although Krysinski would not say
which product would be the first to
beneft from the technology, company
videos show the optronic turret ftted
to the nose of the CityAirbus urban air
mobility system, a full-size demonstra-
tor that is due to fy in 2018.
This is a multiplatform solution,
says Krysinski. It can be applied to
all kinds of helicopters.
An obvious use for the system would
be to streamline landings on ofshore oil
and gas platforms. Airbus has already
developed its RigN Fly approach
system that autonomously flies the
helicopter to a missed approach point.
Pilots can then decide whether to go
around or proceed to land. The system
was certifed on the H225 and has sub-
sequently been added to Airbuss H175
super-medium platform. c
AviationWeek.com/awst
V-280 Valor
Bells next-gen tiltrotor ready for frst fight
James Drew Amarillo, Texas
T
he next-generation tiltrotor that
Bell Helicopter says should re-
place the 1970s-era UH-60 Black
Hawk is about to take fight here.
The V-280 Valor is Bells submission
for the U.S. Armys Joint Multi-Role
(JMR) Technology Demonstrator pro-
gram, a precursor to the multiservice
Future Vertical Lift (FVL) acquisition
to replace long-serving legacy helicop-
ters, including the Black Hawk. The
company has begun restrained ground
testing, including powering on, lighting
the engines and turning rotors. The
next step is an unrestrained powered
test, during which Valor probably will
lift of the ground, which counts as the
unofcial frst fight.
Bell V-280 program manager Chris
Gehler says the true first flight will
occur in late October or early Novem-
ber, when the aircraft hovers 20-30 ft.
off the ground for 1-2 hr. of powered
hover testing. Valor will probably fly
6-9 months ahead of its competitor, the
Sikorsky-Boeing SB-1 Defant, which is
taking form at Sikorskys rotorcraft de-
velopment center in West Palm Beach,
Florida.
Sikorsky and Boeing might have
fallen behind Bell, but they remain
stoic in their pursuit of, and belief in,
the X2-based SB-1 confguration as the
ultimate Black Hawk successor.
During a media tour of the V-280
at the Bell production facility in Ama-
rillo on Sept. 28, Gehler said he wishes
Sikorsky and Boeing well, but he be-
lieves Valor will prove to be the more
mature and capable platform. He says a
family of tiltrotors would best meet the
Armys needs under FVL, scaling from
the light and middleweight classes up
to a super-heavy Boeing CH-47 Chinook
or Lockheed Martin C-130 replacement.
[V-280] will revolutionize military
operations through its speed, range and
payload, says Vince Tobin, Bells execu-
tive vice president for military business.
The V-280 will be an excellent comple-
ment to the V-22 already felded. V-22
remains in active production at Boeings
plant in Philadelphia and Bells Amarillo
site. Bell says the V-280 will take tiltro-
tor technology to a whole new level. Us-
ing lessons learned from the V-22, Valor
AviationWeek.com/awst
has been designed from scratch to be
more ergonomic, producible, maintain-
able, repairable and less expensive, with
a fyaway price roughly equivalent to
that of the Boeing AH-64 Apache. It is
promoted for utility, attack and combat
search-and-rescue missions.
The nearest opportunity to make
Valor a reality is FVL Capability Set 3
(CS3), a procurement being jointly pur-
sued by the Army and Marine Corps to
replace the Black Hawk and Bell H-1
Huey/Cobra series by the mid-2030s.
Bell is trying to convince the De-
fense Department to compress the
FVL CS3 schedule and jump straight
Bells V-280 is undergoing ground testing ahead of
frst fight in late October or early November.
into engineering and manufacturing de-
velopment by validating Valors design
through hundreds of hours of extensive
fight testing.
Bell initially will check of seven dif-
ferent test cards over about 7 hr. of
hover and trafc-pattern testing before
picking up speed and transitioning into
airplane mode with propellers tilted
forward. The conversion takes place
between 70 and 120 kt. Gehler expects
to move into airplane mode by year-end,
before beginning fight envelope expan-
sion up to 280 kt. and perhaps beyond
to 304-305 kt. next year.
A cadre of five Bell test pilots and
three Army pilots will be putting the
aircraft through its paces, frst in the
Valor fight simulator and system inte-
gration laboratory (SIL) and then in the
actual demonstration aircraft.
Having lost two test pilots and one
AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017
of its Bell 525 Relentless civil helicop-
ters in a tragic test mishap in 2016, Bell
wants to ensure V-280 flight testing
goes as smoothly and safely as pos-
sible. The company has laid out a test
schedule but will not rush to arbitrary
milestones.
We only have one airplane and the
crews lives are important to us, which
is why we have a methodical testing re-
gime planned, Gehler says. Weve done
failure injections into the SIL to prepare
pilots for any issues and concerns.
Gehler is confident that the V-280
will cruise past its advertised maximum
airspeed of 280 kt. to perhaps greater
than 300 kt., as desired by the Army and
Marines. Its optimal long-range cruise
speed is 230 kt., the company says.
Bell also hopes to beat the minimum
performance requirement in high and
hot conditions (6,000 ft./95F [35C]) by
going up to 8,000 ft./95F.
BEll HElICOPTER
The prototype is powered by two
5,000-shp-class General Electric
T64-419A engines borrowed from the
Sikorsky CH-53E Super Stallion. Other
candidate engines for the V-280 include
the V-22s Rolls-Royce AE1107 and the
CH-53K King Stallions newly certifed
GE38/T408, which at 7,500 shp would
probably be overpowered for the V-280.
Gehler says engine manufactur-
ers are working on lighter and more
efcient models in the optimal 5,000-
6,000-shp range that could be available
in the 2019-20 time frame.
For Bell V-280 Build Team Manager
Jeff Josselyn, the past two years of
construction have been a labor of love.
There wont be a dry eye once she
fies, Josselyn says. Were really look-
ing forward to getting air underneath
these tires. Were all very proud of this
aircraft. c
39
 ConneCted AerospACe

Sense
of Direction
Sensors that are more reliable and intelligent
are required as aircraft connectivity
provides access to more data

Graham Warwick Washington

C
onnecting aircraft to access and analyze the mass of data
they generate is driving demand for more, and smarter,
sensors to collect and disseminate that data in reliability-
enhancing and bandwidth-conserving ways that beneft opera- Dassault
tors and manufacturers alike.
As aircraft are connected by high- sensors. Our Integral Health Monitor- ing correctly. That is the way it self-di-
bandwidth data buses internally and ing sensor has the capability to detect agnoses, Smith says. The sensor sends
wireless communications links exter- a fault at the sensor itself, he says, a digital failure message to the aircrafts
nally, one of the key requirements is which can signifcantly reduce aircraft electronics control unit and from there
the need to know if the sensor itself time on the ground. Now an alert that to maintenance on the ground.
is working and not sending false data. a sensor has failed in fight can be sent The new sensors are in production,
Where we see the industry going is to the ground via satellite communica- and Honeywell is targeting critical
to prognostics and diagnostics at the tions, and maintainers can have a new system applications where the sensors
sensor level, says Phil Smith, senior sensor waiting at the gate. are easily accessible and replaceable
product manager for aerospace busi- Proximity sensors are widely used at the gate. If you are going to ofer
ness within Honeywells Sensing and on aircraft, including on landing gear, airlines diagnostics and prognostics at
Productivity Solutions unit. thrust-reverser actuators, cargo and the entry level, it makes sense for it to
In larger aircraft, if the pilot selects passenger doors and exits, auxiliary be on parts that are easy to swap out,
the landing gear, they cannot see if it power unit inlet doors and emergency not something deep in the wing that
lowers and so must rely on green lights ram-air turbines. A traditional proxim- requires the plane to be taxied over to
in the cockpit to indicate the gear is ity sensor only detects whether a tar- the maintenance hangar, Smith says.
down and locked. If one of the green get is near or far. If a proximity sensor Well certainly try and put this
lights doesnt illuminate, you assume fails, it can fail with a signal of near or into some of our more complex sys-
you have a problem with one of the far, so you cant tell if it is working or tems, more deeply embedded into
landing gear, says Smith. Tradition- not, says Smith. the aircraft, he says. There is still
ally, you would not know if the sensor Under development for four years, value there in diagnosing the system
was faulty or if the gear truly didnt the new sensors run an oscillating cur- automatically, rather than having a
fully deploy. rent constantly within the device. If maintenance crew do their process to
In August, Honeywell announced a that oscillating current stops, it indi- diagnose a problem.
new line of self-diagnosing proximity cates the proximity sensor is not work- Information fowing on high-band-

40 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst

H. Gousse/Airbus
Data from diferent systems could
be synthesized to verify the health
of the multiple air-data sensors on
aircraft such as this Airbus A350.
width buses within the latest aircraft is
unlocking and sharing sensor data that
exists in individual line replaceable
units (LRU) that previously commu-
nicated only via point-to-point links.
Within the aircraft, a couple of
things are happening, says Mauro
Atalla, vice president of engineering
and technology for the Sensors and
Integrated Systems unit of UTC Aero-
space Systems (UTAS). You are now
able to look for correlations between
things that are happening in diferent
places in the aircraft because now you
can seek out that data, he says. And
you can use the information from dif-
ferent LRUs to help other LRUs to per-
form better or more reliably, and even
to create new functionality previously
not possible because the information
would not fow.
Within the systems UTAS produces
for aircraft today, says Atalla, there
are LRUs that do not have many sen-
sors, primarily mechanical and pneu-
matic systems. And you have other
LRUs that have quite a bit of sensing
in them to operate, such as an air-cycle
machine, but that sensing information
never leaves the LRU, he says.
For LRUs that do not need sensors
to operate, UTAS has been conducting
workshops to identify how these units
can fail, correlate this information with
data from its maintenance shops and
prioritize the types of sensors that need
to be added to those LRUs to anticipate
AviationWeek.com/awst
failure or degradation in performance.
The next generation of those LRUs
is going to incorporate these sensors,
Atalla says. They are not going to
be spitting out real-time vibration
spectrum data, but they are going to
be doing onboard processing to flag
red/yellow/green in terms of operat-
ing capability. It is going to be highly
processed output to the aircraft, so the
customer can decide how to operate
the aircraft, he explains.
For those LRUs that already have
some sensing capability, UTAS is fol-
lowing the same process in identifying
the main failure and degradation modes
and increasing the intelligence inside
the LRU. You are measuring torque
and current and things like that to be
able to operate the machine, but that
data never goes out, Atalla says. So
we are adding the capability to process
and publish that information.
But simply transmitting every byte
Wireless devices could make it eas-
ier to install new sensors through-
out aircraft without incurring the
weight penalty of additional wiring.
of sensor data on the aircraft bus or
over the satcom link is not practical
because of bandwidth constraints. So
UTAS has an initiative called Design
for PHM (Prognostic Health Manage-
ment) that changes the standards for
design of its products.
The next generation of LRUs will
have the ability to process and pub-
lish that data, but also, upon request,
to expose more data if that is what the
aircraft or somebody wants, Atalla
says. If you want to diagnose some-
thing, you may want more information
about why the LRU went into a degrad-
ed mode, so we are building that into
how we design our next-generation
products.
As for creating new functionality by
combining sensor data from diferent
systems, UTAS has been working with
a couple of large manufacturers on
how air data can be synthesized from
other sources if the primary sensor
fails. This follows the pitot probe ic-
ing that led to the crash of Air France
Flight 447 in 2009. So if you have en-
gine or fap actuator data, if you have
state information about the aircraft,
how do you estimate what the air data
probe should be reading and use that
to verify the health of the air data sys-
tem? Atalla asks.
AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 41
The demand even from within Hon-
eywell and UTAS to collect more data
from the systems they produce raises
the issue of how to connect a prolifer-
ating number of sensors. Additional
wiring adds weight. More computing
at the sensor so that it transmits pro-
cessed information and not raw data,
is one part of the solution. Wireless
sensors may be another.
Wireless certainly comes up in
some of my discussions with the air-
craft OEMs, says Smith, noting that
they still have a way to go before us-
ing them in system-critical solutions.
While the weight savings is attractive,
engineers are struggling with the re-
liability and security of wireless pro-
tocols and products. The wireless
community needs to come together
to fgure out how to get around that
before they start being used in critical
applications, Smith stresses.
A major step forward, says Atalla,
was the December 2015 approval of the
4.2-4.4 GHz band for aircraft wireless.
Since then, UTC and others have
been working to establish standards
for how to use that frequency band for
intra-aircraft communication, he says.
We expect to go live in 2019.
We have developed a number of
wireless sensing nodes and wireless
data concentrators. We have pilot proj-
ects with a few OEMs who want to add
sensors but dont want to run a bunch
of wires, Atalla adds. Sometimes its
a retroft. Sometimes its about trying
to do controls. You want to measure
something so you can control it better.
UTAS has a pilot project in which
the original equipment manufacturer
is evaluating a tight closed-loop con-
trol capability that they could not have
had before because the cost of the
wiring outweighed the benefit. We
clearly anticipate that, as soon as the
standard is published, there will be a
wave of new wireless sensors coming
out, says Atalla, adding that this will
require sensors to be smarter in how
they manage energy, as well as data
security.
But Atalla emphasizes Smiths point
that as aircraft become connected, sen-
sors must become more reliable than
they are today. So as we put more sen-
sors on the aircraft, at the same time
we have the intelligence to determine
whether the sensor is providing the
right information so the aircraft can
continue to operate without impacting
dispatch reliability. c
 CONNECTED AEROSPACE
Intruder Alert
Broader connectivity for passengers
may open doors to hacking
Kerry Reals London
A
s commercial aircraft become increasingly e-enabled
and airlines make more use of passenger data to per-
sonalize the infight entertainment (IFE) experience,
addressing cybersecurity concerns is becoming paramount.
The aviation sectors march toward the Internet of Things
(IoT), where data can be transferred over the internet from a
variety of connected devices, means it is vital to preempt and
thwart attacks from cybercriminals . This requires convergent
thinking across all stakeholders and a continuous assessment
of the potential risks, experts say.
Cybersecurity threats in todays world vary in timing, in-
tent, methods and intensity level. The main consideration is
that a holistic approach is taken to security and that systems
in this ecosystem are secure, whether they are airborne or on
the ground, wired or wireless, says Bruno Nouzille, technical
director for avionics at Thales.
Regarding infight entertainment and connectivity sys-
tems, he adds, there is very close engagement with the
Thales security experts and close cooperation with aircraft
manufacturers, regulatory agencies, federal agencies, security
consultants, [information technology] professionals and avia-
tion security information-sharing networks.
There are two main threats to consider when it comes to
cybersecurity and aviation: the threat to the privacy of pas-
senger data and the threat to the safety of the aircraft, says
Don Buchman, vice president and general manager of com-
mercial mobility at satellite-based infight connectivity pro-
vider ViaSat.
Regarding safety, suggestions from ethical hackers that
cybercriminals could take control of an aircraft through the
IFE or connectivity system have been strongly denied by
manufacturers.
Theres a physical separation, where we work with OEMs
and airframers to ensure our systems are separated out from
the aircraft systems. We do a lot of cybersecurity continuous
testing of threats, and we are constantly trying to keep ahead
and keep everything locked down, says Buchman.
On the privacy issue, he says protection is in the companys
DNA. As an [internet service provider (ISP)] we were already
kind of a targetwe have 600,000-700,000 [residential] sub-
scribers and we have all their data. As we turn to being an
ISP in the air, it has similar challenges but some diferent
challenges as well, Buchman explains.
Securing passengers personal information and credit
card payment transactions is of paramount importance
to airlines, says Nouzille, and the risks are constantly being
assessed.
Our philosophy manifests in a layered approach to secur-
ing the system and [ensuring] that beyond the access points,
the system has what we call depth security, he says. The
systems security status is continuously monitored, with user
authentications, intrusion detection and response mecha-
nisms overseen by a dedicated security operations center. As
such, cabin Wi-Fi system risks are specifcally addressed and
42 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017
Thales
Thales, which manufactures the AVANT connected IFE
system, says it takes a holistic approach to cybersecurity.
tested to validate the security of these data transmissions.
Despite such assurances, so-called ethical hackers such as
Ruben Santamarta, principal security consultant at IOActive,
voice concerns about what they see as cybersecurity vulner-
abilities in infight entertainment and connectivity systems.
Santamarta made a series of allegations in December 2016
against Panasonic Avionics, in which he said he had accessed
debug codes through a Panasonic infight display screen while
on an Emirates fight from Warsaw, Poland, to Dubai.
He said at the time that the vulnerabilities he discovered
could theoretically allow hackers to hijack passengers in-
fight displays and potentially act as an entry point to the
wider network, depending on system confgurations.
Panasonic stands by its ferce rejection of these assertions,
which it outlined in a statement at the time. The company said
IOActives allegations contained a number of inaccurate and
misleading statements about Panasonics systems. It also said
it had reviewed all of the claims made by Mr. Santamarta
and instructed Attack Research to conduct validation test-
ing in May 2015, when Santamarta alerted the company to
his fndings, and again in 2016, to ensure that the few minor
concerns [in no way linked to the control of an aircraft] identi-
fed by Mr. Santamarta had been fully remediated.
Nevertheless, Santamarta remains unconvinced that IFE
and connectivity systems are watertight against cyberat-
tacksparticularly as aircraft become increasingly e-enabled.
New air-to-ground technologies will equip modern aircraft
with a new set of capabilities. However, in terms of security,
this poses a major challenge, he says. IFEs, electronic fight
bags, satellite communication systems. . . . The e-aircraft is
exposing a signifcant attack surface as more and more de-
vices onboard are now connected.
Jef Cass, vice president of strategy in the aviation and de-
fense business unit at software solutions provider IFS, agrees
that airlines are increasingly vulnerable to cyberattacks. It is
only a matter of time before we see an attack on a major air-
line, he argues in an article promoting the use of blockchain
and cloud technology to help airlines reinforce cybersecurity.
With more IoT-enabled sensors being used, it is actually
the newer aircraft feets which have a higher chance of be-
ing attacked, many of which can be ill-equipped to prevent
unauthorized access, writes Cass. Increasingly being used
for things such as passenger Wi-Fi, real-time air-to-ground
communications are evolving to support mission-critical func-
tions such as infight fuel adjustments and aircraft health-
monitoring, both of which could severely disrupt airlines if
compromised. c
AviationWeek.com/awst
 AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT

Next Phase the advantages of air traffic control

surveillance to be extended much fur-
ther, as it is far cheaper and easier to
Space-based capabilities beckon install. Along with safety benefts, the
broader coverage means separation
for Airservices Australia can be reduced and aircraft can have
greater routing fexibility.
Adrian Schofeld Canberra, Australia The advantages have increased as
aircraft equipage rates have risen, says

A
irservices Australia has been a
global pioneer in the use of au-
tomatic dependent surveillance-
broadcast (ADS-B) for more than a
decade. But while few other countries
have kept pace in terms of deployment
or application, the rapid rate of tech-
nological advance means Airservices is
already looking to the next evolution in
air trafc control surveillance.
some othersincluding the U.S.have
also deployed ADS-B networks cover-
ing vast areas. Australia still has the
largest network where ADS-B is the
sole surveillance source, since unlike
many countries, it has very little radar
coverage of its interior.
Australia has also taken the most
strides in requiring aircraft to be
equipped with ADS-B-compatible
Airservices CEO Jason Harfeld. For
example, reduced separation can be
applied when both aircraft involved
are equipped. Now virtually all air-
craft operating in controlled airspace
are ADS-B-compliant. There are some
exemptions through 2020, for private
operators and foreign airlines in cer-
tain airspace, but these are applied to
very few aircraft.

Airservices AustrAliA

The air navigation service provider
(ANSP) operates a network of ground-
based ADS-B stations that has given
it continent-wide coverage at higher
altitudes since 2012. However, a new
system under development in the U.S.
promises to eliminate the need for a
ground network by relying on satellites
instead, which would extend coverage
to oceanic airspace and allow greater
coverage at lower altitudes.
Airservices wants to be one of the
users of the system after developer
Aireon brings it fully online around
2019. This aim is infuencing decisions
on whether to upgrade the current
terrestrial-based ADS-B equipment
and also highlights the need to re-
place a backbone air trafc manage-
ment (ATM) operating system with
one better able to handle the increased
surveillance data.
For many years, Australia could lay
claim to having the most extensive
ADS-B surveillance network. Now
Australias ADS-B coverage at 10,000 ft., pictured left, is far from com-
plete. But coverage improves as altitude increases and is almost total at
30,000 ft., pictured right. The remaining high-level gap along the north-
east coast is covered by radar, and Airservices plans to add ADS-B stations
there within a year.
avionics. Key mandates include one in ADS-B has also allowed greater use
2013 requiring aircraft above 29,000 ft. of fight-planning options such as user-
(Flight Level 290, or FL 290) to be preferred routing and fex tracks for
equipped and another, last February, domestic and long-haul fights. This is
applying to almost all aircraft operat- because controllers have a more accu-
ing under instrument flight rules in rate picture of an aircrafts position, al-
controlled airspace. titude and heading. Harfeld notes that
Airservices has gradually built routing aircraft around severe weather
up its ADS-B network to 72 ground is now easier to achieve. And an unex-
stations, which receive signals from pected beneft has been more efcient
aircraft based on GPS location. Cov- monitoring to check compliance with
erage is virtually complete at FL 290, reduced vertical separation minima.
but diminishes progressively down to The most recent ADS-B mandate
ground level. in February has had the effect of
Radar only covers a J-shaped area bringing many more types of aircraft
on Australias heavily populated east- operators into the air traffic control
ern and southeastern coasts, as well network, says Stephen Angus, Airser-
as smaller areas on the west and north vices executive general manager for
coasts. This means ADS-B has allowed air navigation services. Not only does

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 AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
this enhance safety and efciency for
smaller aircraft, it also improves the
systems benefts for all users.
Airservices is still expanding the
ground-based ADS-B network and
plans to deploy up to 15 more stations.
These additional sites are intended
to increase low-altitude coverage in
some cases, and in other places they
will replace radars reaching the ends
of their lives.
However, Angus stresses that this ad-
ditional expansion is seen as an inter-
im [solution] until space-based ADS-B
comes along. The space-based sys-
tem is regarded as the future, he says.
It could supersede terrestrial ADS-B
in many respects, in
the same way the ter-
restrial system has
made radar seem an-
tiquated.
The speed of this
shift reflects the ex-
ponential growth and
advancement of sur-
veillance technology,
notes Angus. Airser-
vices long-term goal
is to get out of the
business of terrestrial
equipment, he says.
The more we can
put into satellite- and
space-based [technol-
ogy] the better, as its
more fexible and more
cost-efective.
In a space -based
ADS-B system, the sat-
ellites fulfll the role of the ground sta-
tions. Aircraft equipage would be the
same as for the current ground-based
ADS-B network.
If the new system eventually proves
itself, Airservices would probably look
to retire some of its ground-based
ADS-B stations, says Angus. Space-
based ADS-B will probably be cheaper,
and many of the original terrestrial
stations will otherwise soon need up-
grading with second-generation equip-
ment.
Airservices will still maintain at
least a skeleton network of ground-
based ADS-B as a backup, in much
the same way it still retains ground-
based navigation aids as a backup to
GPS navigation.
However, many steps remain be-
fore Airservices can contemplate us-
ing space-based ADS-B. The company
would essentially need to subscribe to
44 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017
surveillance data from Aireon, the
U.S.-based joint venture that is deploy-
ing the system. Iridium Communica-
tions and Nav Canada are the major
stakeholders, along with a handful of
European ANSPs.
Aireon will rely on a constellation
of 66 satellites being progressively
launched by Iridium. The frst 30 have
been sent into orbit in three launches,
with the most recent on Oct. 9. The
remainder are due to be launched by
mid-2018. Aireon is already receiving
aircraft positional data, which is be-
ing used for testing. Nav Canada is ex-
pected to be the frst to use the service
operationally by late 2018 or early 2019.
Aircraft can send positional data to the Aireon network even over mountains
and oceans where there are no ground stations. The middle circle shows
how aircraft can transmit to both ground- and space-based ADS-B
receivers. The data is downlinked to the Aireon ground facility and then sent
to air trafc control systems.
The Aireon system will be able to
provide surveillance anywhere on
the globe, and about 10 ANSPs have
entered into surveillance data con-
tracts. More than 20 others, including
Airservices, have signed agreements
to evaluate the service in their regions.
Angus says its agreement with
Aireon signals that were serious
about doing this. Airservices hopes
to have an initial contract in place
by early next year to at least begin
receiving some data, which will allow
it to start building a safety case for
Australian regulators. Operational
use by Airservices is unlikely to
occur before 2020, however, as the
safety and cost-benefit assessments
will require a lot of work. No cost es-
timate is available yet.
The fact that Australia already has
a mature ADS-B network will make it
easier to validate the Aireon service,
Harfeld says. When it has been proven
to be as accurate as the existing sys-
tem, it will be a matter of providing
the right interface to feed the new data
into Airservices control rooms.
While many others are interested
in Aireons system, it will be particu-
larly well-suited to Australian require-
ments, says Harfeld. Airservices con-
trols 11% of the worlds airspace, most
of which is oceanic and out of range of
Aireon
current surveillance technology. This
would be a fantastic enhancement for
us, he says.
Aireon views Australia as an impor-
tant potential addition to its network,
says Cyriel Kronenburg, the companys
vice president for aviation services.
Airservices is a true pioneer of ADS-
B and is already reaping the benefts
of a terrestrial-based system, Kronen-
burg says. We see our technology as
the next logical step for surveillance
over the enormous area Airservices
covers, he notes. To be able to col-
laborate on the deployment of space-
based ADS-B in Australian airspace
would be in an incredible opportunity
AviationWeek.com/awst
for Aireon to really hone in on separa-
tion capabilities and efciency-enhanc-
ing services and processes.
While some countries regard space-
based ADS-B as primarily a solution
for oceanic surveillance, Airservices
is looking at it for domestic coverage,
too, Angus says. Aircraft coming in
on international routes can some-
times be over Australia for 3-4 hr.
before reaching the east coast cities.
Airservices uses the same platform to
monitor fights, whether they are over
land or sea.
The current ADS-B system relies
on line of sight between ground sta-
tions and aircraft, so the coverage
area from each land-based site is an
inverted cone that shrinks closer to
the surface. Space-based ADS-B,
however, ofers full coverage down to
ground level. This means it will pro-
vide far more complete low-level sur-
veillance than the terrestrial system.
In the oceanic environment, the
Aireon surveillance will allow the
same hands-on air trafc control and
separation standards as over land.
Airservices terrestrial network only
extends a limited distance ofshore, al-
though it has extended coverage into
the Tasman Sea with an ADS-B site
on Lord Howe Island.
There is currently a coverage gap
on the busy air routes between Aus-
tralia and New Zealand. However,
ANSP Airways New Zealand is also
evaluating Aireons system, so there
could eventually be full coverage
between the two countries, Harfeld
notes. While these are relatively short
flights, the sheer volume of traffic
means any greater efciency could re-
sult in signifcant savings for airlines.
There would even be the potential for
controlling trafc all the way across
the Tasman from either side.
The introduction of space-based
ADS-B would dramatically increase
the flow of surveillance data. This
means Airservices will have to up-
grade its air trafc control operating
system to integrate the additional
feed, says Harfeld.
While some of the space-based
ADS-B data could be handled by the
current ATC system, it would not be
able to process all of the extra load. So
Airservices will not get the full benefts
of Aireon surveillance until it installs
its planned ATC system replacement,
under a project known as OneSky. This
will partly determine the timing of
space-based ADS-B implementation.
OneSky aims to deploy a common
ATC system for both Airservices and
Australias Department of Defense.
It will make the system more fexible,
scalable and will have more tools
for controllers. Airservices selected
Thales as the main supplier in 2015,
and a full contract for OneSky is ex-
pected to be signed before the end of
this year. Some preparatory develop-
ment work is already underway.
Airservices now estimates that the
OneSky deployment will be complet-
ed by 2023, later than its initial fore- nology is evident in other areas aside
cast of 2021. However, Harfeld notes
this is conservative, and he predicts
the actual completion date could be
closer to 2022. Airservices expects to
spend A$652 million ($510 million) on
OneSky and its enabling projects over
the next fve years.
The more we can put into
satellite- and space-based
technology the better, as its more ering
fexible and more cost-effective
The OneSky system will be de-
ployed at 12 military and four civil
ATC centers. It is expected to be op-
erational at the frst sites around 2020 nology under development ofers po-
and then be progressively rolled out
at the others.
Space-based ADS-B is also linked
to another new technology Airser-
vices intends to introduce. It plans
to install a long-range air trafc fow-
management system in order to better
coordinate international arrivals at the plications. Other government agencies
major Australian gateway airports.
Airservices already has a flow-
management system that it uses for
domestic fights, which is particularly
helpful in using ground-delay pro-
grams to optimize trafc fows during
severe weather. However, because in-
ternational long-haul arrivals are less Airservices will follow a major cor-
predictable, they can disrupt carefully porate restructuring at the organiza-
planned patterns.
A long-range fow-management sys-
tem would allow Airservices to bet-
ter integrate international trafc with
domestic fows. International fights
could be directed to alter their speeds trol in Australia. This transformation
slightly in order to meet an optimal
arrival time. Space-based ADS-B
would vastly improve such a system,
Angus says. Aircraft trajectories can
be more precisely managed if control-
lers know an aircrafts location during
long-distance oceanic fights.
A request for information was issued
to see what long-range fow-management
solutions could be ofered by potential
suppliers, says Airservices Chief Infor-
mation Ofcer Chris Seller. This yielded
responses from about 15 companies,
and these are now being assessed. The
intention is to launch a trial, which will
probably be conducted at Melbourne
International Airport, he says.
The move toward satellite-based tech-
from ADS-B. For example, Airservices
has also installed ground-based aug-
mentation systems (GBAS) to provide
precision runway approaches at Syd-
ney and Melbourne airports. GBAS is
regarded as an alternative for the more
traditional instrument landing systems
(ILS). It is more accu-
rate and cost-efective
through its use of en-
hanced GPS data.
Airservices is consid-
using GBAS to
replace its legacy ILS
systems when they
are due to be retired,
and it could also be in-
stalled in lieu of ILS when a new runway
is completed in Perth.
Another satellite navigation tech-
tential benefts for aviation in Austra-
lia. Government agency Geoscience
Australia has launched a two-year
trial program for a satellite-based
augmentation system (SBAS), which
is intended to improve the accuracy
of GPS for positioning in multiple ap-
are also involved, and Airservices will
probably evaluate the use of SBAS for
precision approaches to regional air-
ports, Harfeld says. In the long-term,
it could also help improve aircraft navi-
gation in remote areas.
The technical advances planned by
tion, including a substantial reduction
in headquarters staff. Together, the
restructuring and the new systems
represent a signifcant change in how
Airservices will provide air trafc con-
is an example of how throughout the
aviation industry, old business models
are dying and new ones are emerging,
Harfeld says. c

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 AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT
Extending the Horizon
Some promising improvements in air trafc
management are materializingslowly
Thierry Dubois Lyon, France
R
ecent tests for extended ar-
rival management (E-AMAN) in
Europe have once again shown
that air traffic management (ATM)
optimization looks like low-hanging
fruit for fuel efciency. They have also
shown that, as with developing new
aircraft, advancing ATM involves
lengthy trials mainly because of the
complexity of coordinating
various actors. Paris Orlys Extended Arrival Management Horizon
A change in ATM could
greatly afect the fuel efciency
of the air transport industry.
Unlike the progressive intro-
duction of greener engines,
ATM reform may apply over-
night to a large number of air-
craft. Along with an increase
in airspace capacity, fuel ef-
ficiency is key for programs
such as the FAAs NextGen and
the Single European Sky ATM
Research (SESAR). The latter
targets a reduction of 5-10% for
average 4,800-kg (10,600-lb.)
fuel consumption for a repre-
sentative intra-European ight.
DSNA, Frances air naviga-
tion service provider (ANSP), During live tests last summer, increasing the radius
is leading SESARs xStream of the arrival management area streamlined trafc
project in extended arrival
at Paris Orly Airport.
management. With more reli-
able predictability for the arrival se-
quence, the objective is to enable de-
lay absorption earlier in the ight, at
higher altitude, improving the arrivals
fuel efciency. As part of xStream, an
evaluation last summer at Paris Orly
Airport demonstrated that the average
holding time was cut by 30%. When an
aircraft had to slow down or be vec-
tored (i.e., detoured) to postpone its
arrival, 30 sec. of the extra duration
were transferred to higher ight levels.
The exact fuel saving is being calcu-
lated, Etienne Guerin, xStream project
manager, adds.
The test was conducted during a
period when one of the airports three
runways was closed for maintenance.
DSNA took this opportunity to assess
the benet of an arrival management
horizon extended to 250 nm. In July and
46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017
August, approximately 200 inbound
ights followed the xStream procedure.
Aircraft were given speed-reduction
instructions from north of Bordeaux
(southwest France) and Lyon (south-
east). The distances were twice the
current arrival management horizon.
The performance was compared to
those logged in the summer of 2016,
LFPO (Paris Orly Airport)
120-nm radius
250-nm radius
Lyon
Bordeaux
when similar maintenance kept anoth-
er runway closed. The shorter holding
time and reduced need for vectoring
proved the value of the idea, according
to DSNA. A collaborative process had
been created between Orly Approach
and the Paris and Bordeaux area con-
trol centers.
A complementary concept in
xStream procedures is the target time
of arrival, on which the rst round of
iStream (predecessor of xStream) fo-
cused in 2015. Crews are given a target
time of arrival at a congestion point,
Guerin explains. The congestion point is
most often an initial approach x or an-
other entry point in the approach area.
Ideally, target times of arrival are
given before departure for crews to
adapt pushback time; then, the air-
craft is followed in E-AMAN mode
with speed-reduction instructions
that enable it to insert into an arrival
sequence, Guerin says. These are suc-
cessively the planning and tactical
phases.
The concept of a target time of arrival
will be key in an upcoming test. In the
second half of next year, an arrival man-
agement horizon of up to 350 nm will be
tried at London Gatwick Airport. It has
a single runway, so predicting departure
times is required to extend the horizon,
Guerin adds. The closest aircraft in ap-
proach are expected to take of before
the farthest out land. Efective collab-
orative decision-making will be needed
among airlines, the airport, and tower
and approach control centers, Guerin
emphasizes.
For the xStream test, DSNA
had partners. Eurocontrols
network manager checked
that the concepts we develop
do not reduce capacity, Guerin
points out. ATM hardware
manufacturer Indra ensured
that concepts could be translat-
ed into system specications.
German Aerospace Center
DLR has helped with perfor-
mance analysisdetermining
fuel and time savings as well as
controller workload.
Source: SESAR/DSNA
The E-AMAN concept will
be tested at Paris Charles de
Gaulle Airport in April 2018.
Although there is no set time
for this tool to be ready for de-
ployment, xStream is part of
the SESAR 2020 multiannual
work program.
The timescale appears long
for a project that does not involve ma-
jor hardware changes. The technol-
ogy bricks we need are small but they
involve exchanging data between sev-
eral ANSPs, hence security challeng-
es, Guerin explains. Software must
adapt to systems that were built over
a long period of time. Moreover, engi-
neers who devise new ATM schemes
must wait for the right season to test
themthey need peaks in trafc, but
not too high, he says. Finally, a large
number of partners have to coordinate.
A 250-nm E-AMAN may include 5-9
en route control centers, he notes.
The next step in E-AMAN research
could happen in 2019, when DFS, the
German ANSP, hopes to test a con-
figuration with multiple E-AMAN
schemes, possibly crossing, in a single
en route sector. c
AviationWeek.com/awst
 SAFETY

FAA
Incursion
Proofng
FAA and industry take a fresh look
at how to avoid runway incidents

The number of reported and verifed runway

incursions in the U.S. has been growing since 2011.

John Croft Washington September, Devlin said safety data over

the past two decades shows a signif-

L
ast February, a controller at San Francisco International cant reduction in the rate of runway
Airport mistakenly cleared an Embraer 175 to land on Run- incursions in 2000-08, but since then,
its not clear if theres been a reduc-
way 28L while an Airbus A320 was waiting to depart at the tion or not.
end of the same runway. A surface surveillance system safety He joins a broader chorus of safety
net caught the error and alerted the controller, who commanded advocates calling for additional data
collection surrounding the most serious
the E175 to go around. A catastrophe was averted, but barely: incursions and a more comprehensive
The two aircraft had come within less than 100 ft. of colliding. classifcation system. Were chasing a
few events each year trying to under-
The incident became one of four (Airport Surface Detection Equip- stand the true risk in the system, says
Category A runway incursionsthe ment-Model X) and airport surface Devlin. My argument is that risk actu-
type with the most potential for loss surveillance capability (ASSC)the ally exists on a continuum, and we need
of life and limbthat have occurred type of system that saved the day in to start looking at runway safety as part
so far this year. The classification is the San Francisco incursionand run- of this continuum.
the result of a laborious process in way status lights, banks of red lights Analysts are faced with several prob-
which an FAA panel ranks individual that alert a pilot not to proceed when lems when trying to gauge runway in-
incursion events as Cat. A (the worst) a runway is occupied. ASDE-X is now cursion trends and predictions. Given
through Cat. D (the most benign) and operational at 35 large airports, ASSC the low number of Cat. A and B events
attributes the events to pilots, control- will expand to nine airports, and run- generally fewer than 20 per yearit can
lers, vehicle operators or pedestrians. way status lights will be operational at be difcult to decide if performance has
The FAA defnes an incursion as the 20 airports by year-end. Procedural been improving or worsening over time.
incorrect presence of an aircraft, ve- preventatives typically include aids to Devlin says a weighted Bayesian curve
hicle or person on a runway. boost situational awareness, including ft of the data since 2008 suggests vir-
The ranking system and preventa- airport diagrams on moving map dis- tually no change in rate, while an expo-
tives are getting a second look as the plays in the cockpit. nential curve ft suggests the numbers
most severe types of incursionsCat. The categories are not designed on are on the upswing. The total number
A and B eventsappear to be occur- who to blame, but what collection of of reported and verifed incursions has
ring at the same or possibly higher mitigations are available for that type been growing since 2011. There were
rates for the past several years despite of event, says Chris Devlin, senior 1,560 last year, based on the FAAs fs-
the introduction of a wide range of cor- principal systems engineer at Mitre cal year (October through September),
rective measures. Among the tech- Corp.s Center for Advanced Aviation and 1,219 this year through the end of
nological preventatives are ground System Development. At an NTSB run- August. One caveat to consider when
surveillance systems like ASDE-X way incursion forum in Washington in discussing incursion ratesan incur-

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 47

 SAFETY

Runway Incursions in the U.S., 2010-17 Number of runway incursions

2,000 Rate per 1 million operations 40

31.20
1,500
29.32 30
27.45
24.87 25.47
22.74
Number of runway incursions

Rate per 1 million operations

1,000
18.85 18.80 20

1,560
1,458
500 1,264 10
1,242 1,219
1,150
966 954
0 0

Cat. A and B 0.38

20 0.36 0.4
Runway Incursions 0.30
15
0.28 0.3
0.22
10 0.14 0.14 0.2
0.12
55 0.1
6 7 18 11 14 15 19
0 9 0

Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

Airport Operations 51,254,958 50,739,762 50,576,043 49,936,655 49,623,893 49,722,104 49,994,949 44,405,709
Source: FAA *through end of August

sion must be reported to be counted. incursions, 67% were attributed to ATC boxes, which can be as simple as a pad
Making a judgment based on the and 33% to pilot deviations. Many of the of paper with a check mark next to an
sheer number of events also can be ATC events resulted in fy-overs, as aircrafts call sign or as sophisticated as
problematic. James Fee, the FAAs was the case in the San Francisco inci- a touch-screen tablet, have to cover six
manager for runway safety, says the dent in February. operational scenarios: runway closed or
number of incursions has increased The FAA and industry recently re- inactive; runway crossing taking place;
over the past decade in part because viewed more than 700 Cat. A, B and C vehicle, personnel or equipment on an
of culture changes initiated by the FAA. incursions to assess what prevented active runway; land and hold-short op-
The agency in 2008 launched a volun- them from becoming accidents, says erations; line-up-and-wait commands;
tary safety reporting program for con- Fee. The primary cause of incursions and landing clearances issued.
trollers, the Air Trafc Safety Action (63%) was ATC clearing an aircraft The requirement also applies to
Program (ATSAP). Pilots, fight atten- to land or depart on an occupied run- contract towers. Serco, an operator of
dants and other aviation workers have wayan error that can cause a fly- 59 contract towers in the western U.S.
similar programs that ofer immunity over event. It was found that one of and Alaska, and one non-federal con-
from FAA penalties when employees the leading contributing factors was trol tower in California, created what
voluntarily submit a report on an ac- misjudging the closure rate or separa- it calls the tower trafc management
cident or incident, providing there was tion rate between two aircraft. Of the board (TMB) in response.
no criminal activity, substance abuse, 361 pilot deviations studied, the top Its a poor mans radar, says David
alcohol or intentional falsifcation in- cause was failing to hold short of an ac- McCann, senior program manager for
volved. In 2008-14, the FAA said it had tive runway; the largest contributing Serco. Many of our facilities have ra-
received more than 73,000 ATSAP re- factor was miscommunication. In 20% dar, but there is an FAA requirement to
ports resulting in more than 200 safety of the ATC incidents, go-arounds were have the runway incursion avoidance
improvements to the air trafc control used as the barriers, or preventatives; memory aids in place. TMB is a mag-
system. in another 40%, the FAA could not tell netic dry-erase board with a diagram
Fee, speaking at the NTSB forum, which barriers were in place or which of the airport printed on it. Control-
said in the past decade 66% of all run- were the most efective, says Fee. lers use color-coded magnetic chips
way incursions were attributed to pilot Based on the problem of fy-overs, the on the board to indicate an aircraft or
deviations (pilots not adhering to FAA FAA has begun requiring tower control- vehicle on the runway, taxiways or ap-
rules or ATC instructions); 19% were lers to use memory aids to help them proach paths. Each [TMB] is unique
tied to vehicle or pedestrian deviations recall exact actions, items, places and to a facility and has standard operating
and 15% to ATC. General aviation air- sequences, says Mike Moreau, the procedures for that facility, says Mc-
craft are involved in 80% of all incur- FAAs central service area runway safe- Cann. Theyre all geared toward quick
sions. For the more severe Cat. A and B ty program manager. Memory aid tool- recognition by the controller so they

48 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst

can fgure out whats going on and get
back to looking out the window. In the
past, youd have a legal pad and write
down the numbers as they call you.
Thats not very efcient.
Airlines are also deploying their own
customized solutions while sharing
insights with rivals through the FAAs
InfoShare gatherings twice per year.
Delta Air Lines says its rate of
runway incursions over the past four
years has been fat, meaning no ap-
preciable increases or decreases. We
dont take that lightly, says Patricia
DeMasi, manager of Aviation Safety
Action Programs (ASAP) for the carri-
er. We watch the industry trends and
have a heightened awareness because
of that. ASAPs are part of a broader
safety management system structure
within airlines.
Key preventive measures include
options for the electronic fight bags
(EFB) in the cockpit. Included are
own-ship position on airport moving
maps, depictions for closed areas,
Delta-specifc airport familiarization
pages and a capability so pilots can
create a highlighted overlay of their
expected or assigned taxi route.
Along with using ASAP reports to
fag potential problems, Delta is work-
ing with its fight operational quality
assurance (FOQA) service provider to
set up a trigger to highlight possible
incursions that our FOQA team can
follow up on, says Josh Migdal, Deltas
senior air safety investigator. Human
factors is a big piece were looking at.
Secure Cockpit
CONNECTIVITY.
SCALABLE AVIONICS GRADE SOLUTIONS
Access to data for pilot and ight operations
Bridging cockpit, cabin and maintenance systems
Enabling tablet connectivity and applications hosting
AviationWeek.com/awst
Southwest Airlines would not discuss
its incursion rate trends but noted that
over the past four years 21% of its run-
way incursions resulted in a go-around,
and 1% caused a rejected takeof. Causal
factors included cockpit distractions,
loss of situational awareness, similar
call-sign confusion and timing of the
before-takeoff checklist, says George
Hodgson, manager of ATC systems for
Southwest.
Preventive measures include airport
cover pages in pilot documents that
detail special areas of concerns at air-
ports. At the Hollywood Burbank Air-
port in California, a new cover page
describes a new hold point to help with
incursion problems the airport was
having for one runway. In the cockpit,
pilots are instructed to confrm ATC
instructions between each other and
to suspend discretionary tasks when
needed.
United Airlines has determined
that causal factors for its runway in-
cursions largely revolve around situ-
ational awareness and communica-
tions. Situational awareness starts
with a taxi plan, threats {along the
path to the runway] and being aware
of their present position, says Jerry
Tsujimoto, Uniteds senior investigator
for fight safety investigations. The car-
rier uses a VVM (verbalize, verify and
monitor) aid to keep both pilots from
being heads-down at the same time
looking at EFBs or other documenta-
tion during taxi. Pilots are graded on
their understanding of runway incur-
www.esterline.com/avionicssystems
AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 49
sion prevention measures and on their
performance in handling complex air-
port layouts in simulator training.
The FAA is putting more focus on the
human factors aspect on the continued
occurrence of runway incursions. The
agencys nine-person human perfor-
mance team, comprising experts in
fatigue, human factors and health and
wellness, will be developing the tools
needed to achieve a high level of hu-
man performance in the National Air-
space System, says Sabrina Woods,
an FAA human factors scientist on the
team.
Woods says access to all available
data has been a roadblock in coming
up with the most efective runway in-
cursion mitigations. Were building
mitigations on one-quarter or one-half
of the story and hoping the outcome of
that safety action is moving the safety
needle, says Woods. We are uncertain
if corrective actions are solving the
problem; we are not even sure we are
asking the right questions.
The problem, she says, is that ana-
lysts do not have access to information
about the same incident from multiple
databases, including ATSAP, ASAP,
the NASA aviation safety reporting
system and others. All the mitiga-
tions we create and all the devices we
develop to carry out the mitigations
are based on what can sometimes be
incomplete data, she says. Its not
because the data does not [help]; its
because our level of accessibility is not
there yet. c
CommerCiAl AviAtion

Family Business
Jens Flottau Cancun, Mexico,

EmbraEr
Dublin and Frankfurt

D
omhnal Slattery sets
the tone the minute he
walks in: I have 1 hr. for
this interview. When they go
longer, they tend to become in-
efcient for everybody. And in-
efciency, as we will soon learn,
is something he neither likes
nor tolerates. Dom is quite a
force of nature, we had been
warned, a few weeks earlier, by
younger brother John.
Trying to meet Domhnal and John
Slattery is a challenge. Both are con-
stantly traveling, mostly by air. They
spend about six months a year away
from home and ofce. Both still love to
fy and can sleep well on aircraft. The
photo of the two together (page 53) was
taken on one of the rare occasions they
were on the same continentlet alone
in the same citywith John spending
some time of at home in Ireland.
Few people ever make it to the top
of large corporations; it is even less
common to see two brothers rise to
the top in the same industry. The Slat-
tery brothers did: John is now president
and CEO of Embraer Commercial Air- After a career in fnance, consulting and aircraft leasing, John Slattery is presi-
craftthe first non-Brazilian to run dent/CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation and its most senior non-Brazilian.
the companys commercial aircraft
businessand many predict he will and if he does not sing at the end of a as a consequence, work became me. . . .
one day also be the frst non-Brazilian dinner, then something is wrong. Until a few years ago, I had no personal
to run Embraer as a whole. Domhnal But how did two sons of a vegetable interest in other people. It is only now
is the CEO of Avolon, which is well on wholesale shop owner in a little town on that this is changing.
its way to becoming the worlds largest Irelands west coast become such high- In the early 1970s, the Slattery broth-
aircraft lessor just seven years after profile figures in aerospace? Was it a ers discovered their love for aviation.
he founded the company. Both are still confuence of life events or talent? The Ennis, the small town where they lived,
relatively young CEOs: Domhnal turned answer is both and, one might add, pain. was only a few minutes from Shannon
50 recently, and John is 48. They will We lost our dad at ages nine and Airport, and the airport company hap-
have many more years in the industry, 11, says John. It gives you a sense of pened to be their fathers biggest cus-
if they wish. urgency and maturity too early in life. tomer. John and Domhnal share happy
When they happen to be in the same You end up losing your childhood, memories of sitting in the back of the
place, their joint parties at industry adds Domhnal, who stepped into the delivery truck and smelling kerosene as
events are legendary: Domhnal says fathers role almost immediately. The they arrived there every other Satur-
John is by far the better singer, who sense of massive loss both emotion- day. We marveled at the Pan Am [Boe-
could have pursued a professional ca- ally and materially shaped the boys ing] 747-100s, John recalls with a smile.
reer in opera, but one industry source personalities for years to come and, to My dream became to work in aviation.
says Domhnal is a very good dancer, an extent, still does. Domhnal says that Domhnal felt the same way.

50 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst


How brothers John and Domhnal
Slattery became famous in aviation
AVOLON
Domhnal Slattery built up Avolon as a major force in aircraft leasing. He
continues as CEO after HNA Group acquired the business.
But there were more imminent prob-
lems after their father died in 1978. The
family had to survive on a small widows
pension, not nearly enough. Domh-
nal took on weekend and after-school
jobs and handed over the earnings to
his mother. Life was about learning in
school, and later in university, but also
more simply about satisfying basic
needs along the lines of Maslows fa-
mous hierarchy of basic human needs.
After university, Domhnal took his
frst professional steps. They would be
diferent from Johnsand looking back
at their careers, that is not surprising.
Domhnal is the entrepreneur, who took
great risks and lost everything twice.
John was always employed in very se-
AviationWeek.com/awst
nior positions; his one attempt to build
his own frm failed in the aftermath of
the global fnancial crisis, much to the
beneft of Embraer.
The two are similar in some ways,
starkly diferent in others. They did not
always get along well when they were
younger, and professionally their ways
parted at some point. But both say they
are very close again and have been for
a long time. At the same time, there is
still a lot of competition between John
and Domhnal, says Isabelle Floret, who
is in charge of sales to lessors at Airbus.
But back to Ennis. If you were
growing up in Ireland, you wanted to
join Davy Stockbrokers, Kerry Group
or GPA [Guinness Peat Aviation], John
AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017 51
recalls. GPA was founded by legendary
entrepreneur Tony Ryan, one of those
behind Ryanair. Set up in 1975, it quickly
became the worlds largest aircraft les-
sor of its time. This is where I had to
be, Domhnal says. Through lucky cir-
cumstances he was able to get a job in-
terview, but was turned down because
GPA management held to the highest
standards, hiring only what they con-
sidered the best of the best. Domhnal
would not give up, and ofered to work
for free. It was my frst lesson in tenac-
ity, he says.
He was offered a paid job at GPA
in 1989, and his career progression
was greatly assisted by the absence
of email thereGPA representatives
would fax in reports about client nego-
tiations. There were 20 fax machines in
the Shannon ofce and 150 employees.
It was Domhnals job to read the faxes,
copy them and distribute them into
the mailboxes of everyone he thought
should read them. I soon knew more
about anything in the company than
anyone else, he recalls. Consequently,
he was confdent: I was going to be the
CEO.
Such a claim is typical for Domhnal.
His personality is larger than life, says
Floret. He is a very strong personality,
you can feel it the moment he enters
a room. But she also describes him as
very generous and approachable, and
very loyal with his people.
His life changed with the collapse of
GPA in 1992 after a failed initial public
ofering (IPO), a trauma for the Irish
business community to this day. At age
27, he had lost all of his money and left
GE Capital Aviation Services, which
had acquired what was left of GPA.
Domhnal set up his first company,
International Aviation Management
Group (IAMG) in 1994, starting from
scratch again.
IAMG specialized in airline fnance
consulting. It also turned out to be the
Slattery brothers firstand only
time working together. John had start-
ed a job at the Bank of Ireland and was
Domhnals stockbroker. In 1995, he
came to visit his brother on vacation
in the Cayman Islands, where IAMG
had moved from Tampa, Florida. John
proposed to join IAMG, now ready to
fulfll his dream and also get into avia-
tion. Domhnal did not like the idea, but
when the two came back to the beach
from a long swim, they agreed to give
it a try. Within a month, it was obvious
that this 25-year-old kid with no back-
 CommerCial aviation
ground in aviation took to it, says Dom-
hnal. He was a natural, hugely hungry
and unbelievably good with customers.
I had a ferocious appetite for learn-
ing, John recalls. And for working:
Every week he would fy to Miami and
then take the redeye to Rio de Janeiro.
His first major assignment at IAMG
was strategic planning for Varig and
helping restructure the companys
already distressed finances. John or-
chestrated sale-and-lease-back transac-
tions, engine deals and aircraft orders.
AIRBUS CONCEPT
Avolon is one of the launch customers for the Airbus
A330neo. It ordered 15 of the type at the
2016 Farnborough Airshow.
He had arrived where he wanted to be.
IAMG was a successful boutique
consultancy with 25 employees. At one
point, Ryan bought 20% of the com-
pany, but Domhnal bought him out
again a year later as their relationship
strained. There can only be one bull
in the feld, he says. In later years, the
two got on much better, freed of their
professional ties.
Domhnal sold IAMG in 2001, seven
years after setting it up, to the Royal
Bank of Scotland, which used the frm
as the launch platform for RBS Avia-
tion Capital. Within three years, RBS
became the third-largest aviation fi-
nancier. In 2004, Domhnal left a very
rich man. (In 2012, RBS Aviation was
bought by Sumitomo Bank of Japan for
$7.3 billion. It is now called SMBC Avia-
tion Capital.)
Domhnal set up Claret Capital as a
family ofce to manage his wealth. It
should have been the Blackstone of
Europe, he says. He invested in many
things, real estate mostly, but other
sectors as well. He founded a flm pro-
duction company and bought his own
newspaper The Clare People, which he
still owns. He also set up Jet Bird, a
point-to-point air taxi service that was
about to become the launch customer
52 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017
for the Embraer Phenom 100. Another
investment was Blue Ocean Networks,
which was later sold to Inmarsat.
But trouble loomed.
The day we were going to launch
[the Phenom 100], Lehman Brothers
went bankrupt, says Domhnal. Not
only did the Jet Bird project fall apart,
but also the family empire. I was well
on my way to becoming a billionaire,
and suddenly I had lost everything. But
I had a wife, four children and a mort-
gage to pay.
After RBS, John was about to be
hired as CEO by Centennial Leasing, a
CIT spinof. But he, too, was ensnared
in the fnancial crisis. He had the idea
to set up a new lessor at the trough of
the aviation cycle in 2008. But his proj-
ect, Greenstone, ultimately did not take
of. John and Domhnal for some time
discussed merging their interests and
putting Greenstone and what would
become Avolon together. But John says
that while it would have been fnancial-
ly rewarding, I was not as excited. The
brothers were again looking for new ca-
reer paths and, Domhnal in particular,
for fnancial rewards. They went their
diferent ways.
This is when Paulo Cesar de Souza e
Silva entered the scene as a new men-
tor. Cesar, now CEO of Embraer, ran
the commercial aircraft division at the
time, and invited John to dinner at his
home in Dublin. By the main course
he told me I should be part of Embraer,
and by dessert I had decided to join,
John recalls. Ever since that meeting,
this mentor has had an enormously
positive infuence on my life.
John joined Embraer but initially
stayed in Dublin. He was soon promot-
ed to head of sales for the commercial
division and could have stayed there
but chose to relocate to Brazil. Being
based in Europe is actually easier, and
there was no pressure from Paulo, but
I felt it was the right move, he says. It
was helped by the fact that Johns wife
is Brazilian.
At Embraer, it is not a job, but a pas-
sion. Those that have it, live it, John
says. He enjoys the intellectual challenge
of having switched from aircraft leasing
and fnance to the OEM world, which he
describes as infnitely more complex.
There are 20,000 employees, big invest-
ment and multibillion-dollar bets that
have to be made for 20 years out.
In Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil,
where Embraers commercial aircraft
are built, Slatterys office sits in the
middle of the factory. I can touch met-
al in 5 min. if I want to, he says. The
emotional and intellectual rewards of
the job are unparalleled.
Silva initially had a very self-serving
reason for his interest in John. I had
the idea that this is the sort of guy I
need to enlarge the footprint of the
E-Jets into lessors, he recalls. But in
other ways, too, Slattery and Embraer
were a good ft. John is very attached
to Brazil through his wife, Silva says.
When John was president of the Wings
Club, it awarded former Embraer CEO
Mauricio Botelho its top honor. Since
then, Silva has appreciated John as a
great professional with an interna-
tional attitude. Silva also notes that
the Slatterys are very creative, they
are artists and fun guys. The singing
is part of it.
Former Embraer CEO Fred Curado
says John has distinct Irish qualities,
but he also has a lot in common with the
Brazilian culture; he is always in high
spirit, full of energy. That energy can
pack a punch when it comes to busi-
ness. Sitting onstage several years ago
at an International Society of Trans-
port Air Trading conference, Slattery
mocked his counterpart, a senior ex-
ecutive at competitor Bombardier, for
delivering an upbeat assessment of the
then poorly selling C Series airliner.
He bluntly suggested that Bombardier
might not even survive in the airplane
business for another fve years.
To Curado, bringing John on board
went beyond better access to the leas-
ing community. I thought it was impor-
tant to have a global executive, because
I had a clear vision of where Embraer
should go: Become a global company
based in Brazil.
For now, Slattery is the point man on
aviationWeek.com/awst
AviAtion industry AwArds
John Slattery (left) and Patrick Blaney
(right), of University College Dublin,
presented the Outstanding
Contribution to the Aviation Industry
Award to Domhnal Slattery last year.
Embraers eforts to bring its updated
E2 jets to market. The aircraft will not
be much bigger than the frst genera-
tion of E-Jets but will be much more
efficient, equipped with cutting-edge
equipment such as Pratt & Whitneys
geared turbofan engines. The E2 is de-
signed to help Embraer keep its prod-
uct line fresh whileunlike Bombardier
and the C Seriesdeliberately avoiding
a head-to-head challenge to industry ti-
tans Airbus and Boeing.
Longer-term, Embraer is looking be-
yond the E2 and may even return to its
EmbrAEr
Successfully introducing the Embraer E2 family to the market
is the top priority for John Slattery in 2018.
roots and build a new turboprop. We
are at the early stages of assessing what
the business case could be, John told
the Aviation Club in London in Septem-
ber. We are serious about it.
But Embraer, famed for hitting the
market with successful products, has
always been deliberative and thorough
in its major decisions. It is intellectu-
ally much more complicated than my
former life, he says.
Domhnal quips with a smile that his
AviationWeek.com/awst
brother likes that story. Because no
one should think that Domhnals work
is not also complex. But he does ac-
knowledge that John is the only guy
who went to the other side. And there
he has been extremely successful.
So could John someday become Em-
braer CEO, when Silva retires? He is a
candidate for the top job, the incumbent
says, although there are other bright
candidates as well. Can John, unlike
his brother, also live with being No. 2?
Well, for a while, says Curado, laughing.
While John changed sides in the in-
dustry, Domhnal had a diferent objec-
tive. He needed money, so he decided to
return to what he thought he did best:
running an aircraft leasing company.
He spent two years fnding investors for
his new idea, Avolon. He raised $1.4 bil-
lion in equity from four well-known or-
ganizations: Cinven, CVC Capital Part-
ners, Oak Hill Capital Partners and the
Government of Singapore Investment
Corp. Domhnal also raised $1.6 billion
in debt to fund aircraft purchases. In
AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017
2014, Avolon went public in the largest
listing ever of an Irish company on the
New York Stock Exchange. The success
of the IPO helped heal the wounds to
the Irish business community, still evi-
dent from GPAs collapse more than 20
years earlier.
A little more than a year later, Bohai
Capital, a subsidiary of HNA Group,
bought Avolon. That, combined with
the IPO, made Domhnal rich again. He
stayed on to run and consolidate the
companies. Like his brother, he moved
abroad again, setting up camp in Hong
Kong. The lack of cultural integration
and trust is the main reason for failure,
he says. So I agreed that I would base
myself in Asia, a fantastic personal ex-
perience. But now he is back home in
Dublin, where more projects awaited
such as CIT Aerospace.
CIT Group had been trying to sell its
aircraft leasing business for some time,
and Avolon was still eager to grow. It
agreed to pay $10 billion for the compa-
ny, and the deal closed in April. Avolon
is now the third-largest aircraft lessor
worldwide. And if Domhnal is right, it
will very soon be the biggest.
I think he fts well with the Chinese
culture because he thinks big, says
Airbus Commercial Aircraft President
Fabrice Bregier. He is not the [same]
kind of aircraft lover as Steve Udvar-
Hazy [CEO of Air Lease Corp.], but he
is a very structured businessman with a
strong fnancial background. As long as
he has the support of his shareholders,
he will do well.
But it is not just size Domhnal is
pursuing. When you hit 50, you start
thinking about your legacy, he admits.
There has to be a higher purpose.
While he and his team at Avolon are still
trying to define that in their internal
discussions, the basic idea is that the
company should be the benchmark for
excellence in aircraft leasing.
But isnt it time to bail out and move
on again? Domhnal demurs. One of his
beliefs is that you tend to take most
risks early in life. Second, he managed
to convince his owners that structured
autonomy is the way Avolon should be
run. Targets are defned for the balance
sheet, the risks taken and the proft ex-
pectedbut how all that is achieved is
his business. An arrangement even the
entrepreneur Domhnal seems able to
live with for now.
So fnally, who is the better singer?
Silva is undecided: The duets are
excellent. c
53
 SPACE
Elons Big Gamble
Iconoclastic SpaceX CEO wants to scrap
Falcon rocket line to fund his Mars dream
Irene Klotz Adelaide, Australia
S
paceX founder and CEO Elon
Musk says he has fixed a fatal
faw in the interplanetary space
transportation system unveiled during
last years International Astronautical
Congress (IAC)namely, how to pay
for it.
The 46-year-old tech entrepreneur
now plans to phase out his companys
successful Falcon rockets and Dragon
capsules in favor of a reusable, two-
stage, multipurpose super-heavy-lift
launcher that not only can take on the
satellite delivery and station resupply
fights that keep SpaceX fnancially vi-
able but also fy crews and cargo to the
Moon and Mars. The system, called
the BFR (originally an acronym for big
f***ing rocket, but recently renamed
to the more politically palatable Big
Falcon Rocket) also could be used for
suborbital, point-to-point travel be-
tween destinations on Earth.
Earth hops are some of the first
[BFR] tests that you will actually see,
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell
said during the Oct. 5 debut meeting
of the reconstituted National Space
Council, which is stafed by members of
the Trump administration Cabinet and
headed by Vice President Mike Pence.
That sounds like something that
would completely . . . revolutionize long-
54 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017
distance transportation, commented
U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine
Chao, a member of the council.
Ultimately, Musk intends for the BFR
to render its current line of rockets and
spaceships obsolete. This was really
quite a profound realization that if we
can build a system that cannibalizes our
own products . . . then all the resourc-
eswhich are quite enormousused
for Falcon 9, Heavy and Dragon can be
applied to one system, Musk said dur-
ing a 45-min. presentation at this years
SPACEX CONCEPT
IAC, which was held here Sept. 25-29.
Some of our customers are conser-
vative, and they want to see BFR fly
several times before theyre comfort-
able launching on it. So what we plan
to do is to build ahead and have a stock
of Falcon 9 and Dragon vehicles. . . . If
they want to use the old rocket and old
spacecraft, they can do that, he added.
Since debuting in June 2010, Falcon
9 rockets have launched more than 40
times. The Falcon Heavy, which extends
the feets lift capacity to low Earth or-
bit (LEO) to 140,650 lb., from 50,265 lb.
(22,800 kg), is due to fy for the frst time
before the end of the year. The BFR, in
contrast, has a lift capacity to LEO of
330,000 lb., admittedly overkill for the
communications satellites and other
payloads needing rides into orbit today.
I know at first glance this may
seem ridiculous, says Musk. But it
is not. The same is true of aircraft.
If you bought, a small, single-engine
turboprop aircraft, that would be $1.5-
2 million. To charter a [Boeing] 747
from California to Australia is half a
million dollars, there and back. The
single-engine turboprop cannot even
get to Australia. So a fully reusable, gi-
ant aircraft like the 747 costs a third as
much as an expendable tiny aircraft. In
one case, you have to build an entire
aircraft; in the other, you just have to
refuel something.
It is really crazy that we build these
sophisticated rockets and then crash
them every time we fy, he adds. Often
Ill be told, but you could get more pay-
load if you made it expendable. I said
yes, you could also get more payload
from an aircraft if you got rid of the land-
ing gear and the faps and just parachute
out when you got to your destination.
But that would be crazy, and you would
sell zero aircraft.
Luxembourg-based SES, the first
commercial satellite operator to fy on
a Falcon 9, and the frst customer for a
SpaceXs planned super-heavy-
lift, multipurpose replacement for
Falcon rocket and Dragon capsule at
the International Space Station.
previously fown booster, said it would
assess the BFR for future launch ser-
vices, as it would any rocket. SESs
position is to constantly review the
various launch systems available to it,
says Martin Halliwell, SES chief tech-
nology officer. The SpaceX Falcon 9
has proven itself in both expendable
and fight-proven modes. The BFR is a
completely new system with completely
diferent levels of capability, so we will
have to assess the ft once again for our
requirements.
With 29,135 ft.3 (825 m3) of pressur-
ized volume for cargo and a vehicle di-
ameter of nearly 30 ft. (9 m), the BFR
could be a game changer for satellite
design, Musk notes. You could send
a mirror that has 10 times the surface
area of the current Hubble [telescope]
as a single unitdoesnt have to unfold
or anything. You do whatever you like,
he says.
The BFR, powered by 31 methane-
fueled Raptor engines, is a scaled-
down design of the 42-engine Inter-
planetary Transit System (ITS) Musk
unveiled last year. We were really
AviationWeek.com/awst
searching for . . . how [to] pay for this
thing. We went through various ideas.
. . . These did not pan out. But now we
think we have a way to do it, which is
to have a smaller vehiclestill pretty
bigbut one that can do everything
thats needed in the greater Earth-
orbit activity.
For Mars transport, the BFRs cargo
area would be confgured into 40 cab-
ins, each housing four to six people,
with a central storage area, galley, solar
storm shelter and entertainment area.
Musk would like to fly two BFRs un-
manned in 2022, followed by two more
unmanned and two manned missions in
2024, when Earth and Mars are again
favorably aligned. The goal of these ini-
tial missions is to fnd the best source
of water . . . and build the propellant
plant, says Musk.
The BFR also could play a role in
NASAs post-International Space Sta-
tion plan to put a small base into orbit
around the Moon to support lunar sur-
face activities and serve as a testbed for
technologies needed to send humans to
Mars. For lunar sorties, the BFR would
not need in situ propellant production.
A few hours before Musks presen-
tation, Lockheed Martin rolled out its
design for a Moon and Mars lander,
one that would stick with hydrogen for
fuel, rather than methane. The pri-
mary reason is just efciency, although
some engineering still needs to be done
to fgure out the best way to chill the hy-
drogen, says Rob Chambers director of
Lockheeds human spacefight strategy.
Another reason for using hydrogen is
the ubiquity of water. When you start
looking at orbital missions at the be-
ginning of exploration, water is every-
where, but methane is not and carbon
dioxide is not, he says.
For now, Lockheed, like SpaceX, is
self-funding its vehicle concept, with
an eye toward competing for potential
NASA commercial services contracts
for deep-space cargo and supplies deliv-
eries, a venture that also has caught the
attention of Jef Bezoss space company,
Blue Origin.
Wethe human raceneed all
the best ideas brought forward, says
Chambers. Even the most radical ideas
possible get us all out of our comfort
zone and get us thinking. c
Check 6 Aviation Week editors discuss
the blizzard of recent space developments:
AviationWeek.com/podcast
AviationWeek.com/awst
Simple, Robust
Japans LE-9 space launch engine
has passed a frst series of tests
Bradley Perrett Adelaide, Australia
J
apan climbed a technological costs. The LE-9 and H3 launcher, suc-
mountain in developing the main cessor to the current H-IIA and H-IIB,
propulsion system for its H-II are due to fy in the fscal year begin-
space launcher series in the 1980s and ning in April 2020.
90s, producing an engine of difcult The engine characteristics are
configuration that was comparable mostly within predicted variations,
with the best that had been achieved says Akihide Kurosu, a senior engineer
for NASA. of the H3 project at JAXA, reporting
Then Japan climbed down from on the frst series of tests.
that mountain. Launching develop- The LE-9 features the expander-
ment of an engine for an H-II suc- bleed process for pumping propellant
cessor in 2014, the Japan Aerospace into its combustion chamber. Engines
Exploration Agency (JAXA) decided of that type use heat from the main
that the remarkable efciency of the combustion chamber to expand a little
old launchers first-stage propulsion of their hydrogen fuel and use it not for
technology, also used by the space burning but to drive the propellant tur-
shuttle, was not worth its production bopumps. This fraction of the fuel, also
cost. So JAXA and prime contractor a coolant, is eventually bleddumped
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) are overboard.
now clambering up
another technologi-
cal peak, developing
the largest engine so
far of a confguration
that ofers simplicity
and low cost but was
previously regarded
as suited only to
small sizes.
This engine, the
LE-9, has performed
successfully in a
first series of hot-
fre tests, JAXA and
MHI reported to the
International Astro-
nautical Congress,
held here on Sept.
25-29. It is intended
to power the first
stage of the forth-
coming H3 launcher.
Two more series
of tests for the hy-
drogen-burning LE-9
engine are planned:
one for qualifcation
and one for verifying
modifcations to cut
The LE-9 has
undergone the frst
of three planned
series of tests.
JAXA
AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 55
 SPACE
But the confguration is difcult to
scale up, notably because transferring
enough energy into the coolant hydro-
gen demands a long, almost pipelike
combustion chamber with a large sur-
face area. To get the most out of the
extracted energy that can be drawn
from that surface, the turbine needs
to be highly efcient.
Conducted in April-July, the frst se-
ries of tests was intended to assess the
LE-9 in static and transient conditions,
the latter covering startup, throttling
and cutof. Engineers also used the test
series to initially verify a system of
feedback, or closed-loop, control that
should cut unit costs. Eleven firings
were done at JAXAs Tanegashima fa-
cility, which also will be the launch site.
There is no problem about combus-
tion stability, program engineer Masa-
ki Adachi of MHI told the International
Astronautical Congress. Achieving
combustion stability was the biggest
concern before the tests, he says. The
Damage Limitation
Long March 5s problems do not
extend to other Chinese launchers
Bradley Perrett Beijing and Adelaide, Australia
C
hinese space engineers have
identifed the fault that caused
the failure of the second fight of
their countrys largest space launcher,
Long March 5, a problem that appears
to be pushing back the mission sched-
ule by about a year.
The cause of the failure was simply
a manufacturing defect in one of the
two YF-77 hydrogen-burning engines
of the core first stage, says a source
close to the Chinese industry. The fault
was quickly pinned down, says that
source, who adds there was nothing
wrong with the design and the problem
should be easily addressed.
Although the cause of the failure has
been found, several months of verifca-
tion work will be needed, says another
source familiar with the program. That
suggests that Long March 5, which
frst few in November 2016, cannot be
used again this year.
Isolating the fault to the YF-77 is
particularly important because it
means the failure has no implications
56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017
second-biggest was achieving a satis-
factory starting sequence, according
to Kurosu. There was success there
as well.
The LE-9 has been tested to above
225,000 lb. thrust. Designed output is
330,920 lb. JAXA and MHI plan that
four versions of the H3 will variously
mount two or three LE-9s in their
core frst stages and zero, two or four
solid-propellant boosters derived from
the first stage of the Epsilon space
launcher.
The duration of frings of the LE-9
this year worked up to 78 sec. from the
initial 2.6 sec. The engine was throttled
down in three of those tests, including
the fnal one, in which feedback control
was demonstrated. The tested degree
of throttling was from 90% thrust to
70%. Cutoff also was stable, with no
continued burning, Adachi says.
A key objective of the H3 program
is to deliver launch services at half the
cost achieved with the H-IIA. The cost
for other Chinese space launchers;
Long March 5 is the only launcher
to use the YF-77. The national space
program would be facing a far greater
problem if one of eight YF-100 kero-
sene-burning engines in the rockets
boosters had caused the launch failure,
and especially if some inherent short-
coming in the design of those power-
plants were to blame. Both possibili-
ties were conceivable when the state
media tersely announced on the day
of the fight that the mission had not
succeeded (AW&ST July 10-23, p. 20).
The YF-100 is the main engine of
two other Chinese rockets that have
entered service in the past two years,
Long March 6 and 7, both smaller than
Long March 5. The beginning of full-
scale development of another, Long
March 8, is imminent; it will also use
the YF-100 as its main engine. Under-
scoring the blamelessness of the kero-
sene engine, another flight for Long
March 6, its second, is scheduled for
this year, says a third source.
of an H-IIA launch is undisclosed but is
probably at least 10 billion ($88 mil-
lion). The LE-9 engine should cost only
a little more than half as much as the
LE-7A main engine of the H-IIA and
H-IIB.
The LE-7A was the previous but
overly expensive technical master-
piece of JAXA and MHI, featuring
the unusually difcult combination of
hydrogen fuel and the staged-combus-
tion arrangement for driving propel-
lant pumps. The result was a vacuum
specifc impulsecomparing thrust
with the rate of fuel consumption
of 440 sec., comparable to the 452
sec. of the similarly confgured space
shuttle main engine. The LE-9s spe-
cifc impulse should be 425 sec., still
far higher than can be achieved with
the most common space launcher fuel,
kerosene.
Feedback control is intended to
contribute to savings by eliminating a
process of adjustment that would oth-
Regardless of the serviceability of
other launchers, Long March 5s un-
availability is enough to cause consid-
erable delays for the national space
program, because no other rockets
can undertake some of its missions.
The next lunar mission, Change 5,
will be pushed back a year, for exam-
ple. It will be fown at the end of 2018,
Tian Yulong, secretary general of the
China National Space Administration,
said at the International Astronautical
Congress, held in Adelaide, Australia,
Sept. 2529.
Change 5, planned to bring a lunar
sample back to Earth, was previously
scheduled for the end of 2017. Because
the spacecraft is larger than those that
China has previously sent to the Moon,
it requires a Long March 5.
Describing the Long March 5 failure
as a major challenge to the space agen-
cy, Tian says the timing of the Change
4 mission will also be adjusted. The
reason is not clear. The spacecraft for
that mission, smaller than Change 5s
and developed from the one used for
the Change 3 mission of 2013, will pre-
sumably be carried by a Long March
2F to the Moon. Long March 2F is a
long-established launcher used by pre-
vious Chinese lunar probes, quite unre-
lated to the technology in Long March
5 and therefore never under suspicion
following the July launch failure.
AviationWeek.com/awst
erwise have to be made on each unit
during acceptance trials. It will do so
by automatically meeting the speci-
fcation for mixture ratios at various
thrust settings, Kurosu says.
The frst series of tests confrmed
this function only by using sensors in
the test facility, rather than with the
onboard sensors that production en-
gines will use. Each production unit,
and two intended for qualification
testing, will incorporate not just the
usual pressure sensor in the combus-
tion chamber for determining thrust;
there also will be a sensor in the pro-
pellant lines that determines whether
pressure is above, below or at the value
that corresponds to the correct mix-
ture. If the level is wrong, the engine
automatically adjusts.
This should eliminate the usual
lengthy acceptance process of test-
ing each engine for mixture at vari-
ous thrust levels, changing orifces as
a physical adjustment, and repeating
The Change 4 spacecraft was
a backup for Change 3. Since
the earlier mission succeeded,
Change 4 was modified and
shifted to an out-of-sequence
launch position following
Change 5. Tians remarks sug-
gest that Change 4 is still being
kept behind Change 5 and will
be conducted in 2019. Change
4 is intended to land on the far
side of the Moon.
The delays to the lunar mis-
sions raise the possibility that
the launch of the frst module
of Chinas space station will
also be pushed back by about
a year. Conceivably, a reorder-
ing of the manifest could place
the station ahead of Change
5, but senior officials will be
conscious of the greater im-
portance of the space station
to the governments prestige.
It would be politically safer to
try Long March 5 again with
the lunar probe frst. Also, the
space station is due for comple-
tion in 2022, so there should be
plenty of time for that program
to recover from delays.
The sources did not reveal the exact
nature of the manufacturing defect in
the YF-77. The engine was a great ad-
vance for the Chinese industry, since
AviationWeek.com/awst
the cycle, perhaps many times, un-
til the unit meets the specification.
Space launcher engines go through
that process because of variations in
manufacture.
The H3s second-stage engine is the
LE-5, also used on the H-IIA and H-
IIB but slightly improved. It is also an
expander-bleed engine.
The technology is becoming some-
thing of a Japanese specialty, one that
JAXA and MHI engineers see as highly
suitable for reusable space launchers.
Lacking the troublesome complication
of upstream combustion to drive the
turbopumps, an expander-bleed en-
gine is inherently robust.
So an engine of this type will be
used in a testbed reusable sounding
rocket that is due to fy in the fscal
year beginning April 2018, with the
aim of demonstrating vertical land-
ings and 24-hr. turnarounds. These
capabilities could later be applied to
the frst stage of a space launcher. The
CASC
it brought the efciency, and techni-
cal challenge, of burning hydrogen to
launcher main propulsion. The YF-77
uses the gas-generator cycle, meaning
some propellant used for driving its
AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017
testbed, RV-X, is 7 m (23 ft.) long and
has a liftoff weight of 3 metric tons
(6,600 lb.). Its single engine is de-
signed to be used 100 times.
The tests will focus on fault-toler-
ance, vertical takeof and landing and
aerodynamic guidance and control,
MHI researcher Kotaro Aoki told the
conference, which was organized by the
International Astronautical Federation.
An initial round of tests, includ-
ing at least five flights, is intended to
take the RV-X to an altitude of 100 m
and show that it can fly again within
24 hr. using only simple ground facili-
ties and make an emergency landing
in case of fault. Higher altitudes will
be attempted in a second series of
tests. The evaluations should be com-
pleted in fiscal 2019.
A team of 10 to 20 people has been
looking at conceptual design of a reus-
able launcher, say Akihiro Sato and Yu-
suke Suzuki, the heads of H3 develop-
ment at MHI and JAXA, respectively. c
The YF-77 is the hydrogen-
burning engine of the Long
March 5 core frst stage.
turbo pumps is discarded rather
than burned in the main com-
bustion chamber. Its specific
impulse, an efciency measure
that compares thrust with the
rate of fuel fow, has been stated
as 428 sec. and 430 sec. Sea-
level thrust is 52 metric tons
(115,000 lb.).
In the original configura-
tion used for the frst two Long
March 5 shots, the rocket is
designed to launch payloads of
up to 14 metric tons to geosta-
tionary transfer orbit. The Long
March 5B version, omitting the
second stage, is intended to loft
up to 25 metric tons to low Earth
orbit; this is the version that
would handle the space station
modules.
The YF-77 was developed
by the Beijing Aerospace Pro-
pulsion Institute, part of the
countrys main space industrial
group, Casc. Another Casc unit
based in Beijing, Calt, developed and
builds the Long March 5 and 7 and will
develop Long March 8. Cascs main
Shanghai operation, Sast, developed
and builds Long March 6. c
57
 MISSILE DEFENSE
New Trajectory
As Pentagon adds
dollars for missile
defense, Raytheon
pitches SM-3s as
ICBM killers
James Drew Washington
and Jen DiMascio Tucson, Arizona
A
fter a series of North Korean ballistic-missile
launches, President Donald Trump in August
vowed his administration would boost fund-
ing for missile defense by billions of dollars.
Already in the midst of a ballistic
missile defense review expected to
wrap up by year-end, the Pentagon was
directed to look at what could be done
in the near term. The rst results of
presidents push are now visible, with
Congress approving the transfer of
$367 million from other programs to a
number of missile defense eforts.
The transfers fund pursuit of a so-
called left-of-launch capability to
defeat mobile missiles while they are
still on the groundwhether using
a missile red from a ghter, a ship-
launched weapon or an attack by spe-
cial forces. They also provide funding
to start the massive efort of creating
20 new missile-defense silos at Fort
Greely, Alaska, as well as for upgrades
to a sea-based X-band radar and ad-
ditional testing of the SM-3 Block 2A
interceptor.
Raytheon has been pitching the latest
Block 2A version of its SM-3 air-defense
missile, which is being cooperatively
developed by the U.S. and Japan to de-
stroy medium- and intermediate-range
missiles in space during the midcourse
stage of their flight and is to be used
against even longer-range missiles.
The enlarged, 21-in.-dia. missile al-
ready has the speed, range and altitude
performance needed to defeat ICBMs.
58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017
RAYTHEON
By design, the optical seeker developed
for the SM-3 Block 2As enlarged hit-to-
kill Kinetic Warhead is also the center-
piece of the Redesigned Kill Vehicle
(RKV). By 2022, it will begin replacing
legacy kill vehicles on the new Ground-
Based Interceptors (GBI) in Alaska.
The RKV is being developed by a
Boeing-led industry consortium in-
cluding Lockheed Martin and Ray-
theon. Raytheon says that with a few
software tweaks ported across from
the RKV, the SM-3 Block 2A could be
used against ICBM targets.
On the RKV program, were devel-
oping algorithms to improve the per-
formance capability of that sensor. Its
nothing more than software and rm-
ware, explains Rondell Wilson, Ray-
theons lead engineer for air and missile
defense products. That goes directly
back into SM-3 Block 2A, and now you
have an ICBM-killer capability.
The SM-3 Block 2A will be the prima-
ry armament of the U.S. Aegis Ashore
site being activated in Poland next
year. Raytheon says similar land-based
installations could be set up in Hawaii
or on the U.S. East or West Coasts as
a redundant second layer of defense
against potential missile attacks.
If billions of additional dollars are
unlocked for missile defense, Wilson
says, the supersized SM-3 Block 2A and
lower-altitude Block 1B would provide
the greatest capability faster. We can
provide SM-3 Block 2A ashore as an
under-layer capability for GBI, there-
by maximizing the magazine depth of
those high-value GBIs, he says. We
can do that immediately.
The SM-3 Block 2A is in testing and
has already entered limited production.
Raytheons principal supplier is Japans
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which
The SM-3 Block IIA is in limited
production, and testing on the
interceptor continues.
provides the second- and third-stage
boosters and nose cone.
The missile has completed two suc-
cessful ight tests, and it knocked out
its rst ballistic missile target in Feb-
ruary. But the second intercept test, in
June, failed, reportedly because a sailor
on the USS John Paul Jones pressed
the wrong button and the missile self-
destructed after launch. We know it
wasnt the interceptor, Wilson says.
For threats within the atmosphere,
Raytheon is also proposing land-based
SM-6 interceptors for the Army. It is
the U.S.s longest-range air defense
weapon, typically carried by Aegis-
equipped guided-missile destroyers.
Dean Gehr, Raytheons director for
the Land-Based Standard Missile,
says the SM-6 has been demonstrated
against aircraft, cruise missiles and even
ships. It can also intercept missile war-
heads as they reenter the atmosphere
and after any decoys have burned up.
Youve got a lot of capability in the
SM-3 and SM-6, so why not bring that
capability ashore? Gehr says. It al-
ready is ashore as part of Aegis Ashore,
but bring it into a form factor where we
can integrate it with existing Army sys-
tems, then youve got layered defense.
Raytheon has proposed different
launcher options for SM-6, such as the
M1120 HEMTT Load-Handling system
used with Lockheed Martins Terminal
High-Altitude Air Defense (Thaad) sys-
tem. Fire control for the Army could be
provided by Northrop Grummans Inte-
grated Air and Missile Defense Battle
Command System.
Raytheon also wants the Pentagon
to adopt its long-range radar systems,
specically the Thaad systems X-band
TPY-2 and the S-band SPY-6 Air and
Missile Defense Radar under develop-
ment for the Navy. c
AviationWeek.com/awst
Anatomy of a 1
1 | Exoatmospheric
Kill Vehicle and

Ground-Based 2
EKV adapter

2 | Booster avionics
module

Interceptor 3
5
4 3 | Stage 3 motor
(Orion 38)
Motor diameter: 38.0 in.
Nozzle diameter: 20.7 in.
Key Suppliers:
Motor length: 52.6 in.
Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle: Raytheon and Aerojet Rocketdyne Total weight: 1,924 lb.
Integrated Boost Vehicle: Boeing and Orbital ATK
6 Burn time to 30 psia: 66.8 sec.
Maximum thrust: 8,303 lb.
Oversight:
Missile Defense Agency GMD Joint Program Ofce
4 | Payload shroud
The Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI) is the central fight compo- 7
nent of the Boeing Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) sys- 5 | Stage 2/3 interstage and
tem, standing 54.5 ft. tall and measuring 50 in. in diameter with a adapter ring
liftof mass of 49,567 lb. It is the only operational U.S. interceptor
built specifcally to destroy intercontinental ballistic missiles in 6 | Stage 2 motor
space before their deadly payloads can reenter the atmosphere. (Orion 50XL)
The three-stage rocket is based on three solid-fuel Orion motors Motor diameter: 50.2 in.
drawn from Orbital ATKs Pegasus, Taurus and Minotaur families Nozzle diameter: 33.9 in.
of space launch vehicles. The Orion motors are produced in Utah Motor length: 120.9 in.
and then integrated by Boeing at Vandenberg AFB in California. Total weight: 9,494 lb.
The missile is topped by Raytheons exoatmospheric hit-to-kill Burn time to 30 psia: 71 sec.
interceptor, which seeks out and extinguishes target reentry ve- Maximum thrust: 43,713 lb.
hicles. The GBI booster has gone through three iterations, each
adding new capabilities and reliability enhancements, including an 7 | Stage 1/2 interstage
inertial measurement unit, onboard batteries as well as environ-
8
mental protection and ignition safety features. In future versions, 8 | Stage 1 motor
operators will be able to select whether to fre all three stages (Orion 50S XLG)
or just two, depending on the range of the intended target. The Motor diameter: 50.2 in.
Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has also announced plans for a Nozzle diameter: 36.0 in.
next-generation, multi-stage Common Boost Vehicle for deploy- Motor length: 372.4 in.
ment around 2024. Total weight: 35,525 lb.
Burn time to 30 psia: 69 sec.
Maximum thrust: 150,010 lb.
Shroud
Exoatmospheric 9 | Aft skirt
Kill Vehicle Stage 3 motor
and adapter (Orion 38)

Booster
avionics
module Adapter
ring
Stage 2 motor Source: Orbital ATK

Stage 2/3 (Orion 50 XL)

interstage
Shroud 9
Source: Missile Defense Agency

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 59

 MISSILE DEFENSE
Space Factory
Can Congress stop missile defense kill-vehicle
production from fatlining?
Jennifer DiMascio Tucson, Arizona and James Drew Washington
A
t Raytheons Space Factory,
nestled in the Sonoran Desert,
engineers are building some of
the worlds most complex and sensitive
military devices: Exoatmospheric Kill
Vehicles, or EKVs, designed to protect
the U.S. from the worlds deadliest
weapons.
In a room designed to filter out
nearly all dust particles from the air,
two EKVsdubbed Payload 70 and 71
are nearing the end of their assem-
bly. These two payloads, one of which
is the Block 1 variant, are scheduled to
be launched on Ground-Based Inter-
ceptors to snuf out a mock intercon-
tinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in an
upcoming operational test.
They are among the last of the
Capability Enhancement II (CE-2) se-
ries of EKVs being delivered by Raythe-
on. Production is winding down, since
the U.S.s current plan calls for felding
just 44 interceptors by year-end. The
question now is whether more will be
required to replace the ones that will
be lost to testing, such as Payloads 70
and 71, or whether the entire Boeing-
led Ground-Based Midcourse Defense
(GMD) feet will grow beyond 44.
60 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017
RAYTHEON
Growth seems likely. Support for an
expanded fleet includes members of
Congress and even the Chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staf Marine Gen. Jo-
seph Dunford. We do think an increase
is warranted, he says.
That could help Raytheon bridge
what would otherwise be a five-year
production gap, before the EKVs suc-
cessor payload, the Redesigned Kill Ve-
hicle (RKV), comes online about 2022.
Raytheon officials say the govern-
ment should at least buy additional
rounds to replace those boosters and
kill vehicles expended during testing
to maintain a flight-ready fleet of 44
interceptors.
We have options. We can provide
the government with several more,
says Rondell Wilson, Raytheons lead
engineer for air and missile defense
products. Were ofering the govern-
ment ways to ramp up the quantities.
That will keep the numbers at 44 for a
longer period of time until the next kill
vehicle [RKV] comes online.
The Space Factory opened in 2002,
and the frst generation of EKVs went
into operational service two years
later. The original EKV was essentially
Raytheons kill vehicles
are produced at its Space
Factory near Tucson,
Arizona. Designed to inter-
cept nuclear-armed reentry
vehicles in the vacuum of
space, they must be assem-
bled with extreme precision.
a hand-made prototype, leading
to well-documented reliability
issues and intercept test fail-
ures. However, Raytheon says
hard-earned lessons from past
problems have been incorpo-
rated into this latest variant,
the CE-2 Block 1.
In May, a CE-2 Block 1 EKV
destroyed a mock ICBM for the
frst time in the programs his-
tory. The next step is the GMD
systems frst operational trial
against an ICBM target. It will
be the most complex and real-
istic test yet.
The Senate version of the fiscal
2018 defense authorization bill would
provide up to 28 new interceptors, of
which half would be operationally ac-
tivated, bringing the total to 58. The
other 14 would be kept in storage as
spares. The Houses markup of the
bill would approve $351 million to in-
crease Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI)
magazine capacity and purchase three
additional kill vehicles and seven three-
stage, solid-fuel GBI boosters.
In addition, Congress has recently
approved the transfer of funding in
fiscal 2017 to create 20 new silos in
Alaska to house additional GBIs that
are expected to use the RKV, eventually
bringing the total number of intercep-
tors to 64.
Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), chairman
of the House subcommittee on strate-
gic forces, has been advocating for up
to 100 GBI rounds, including standing
up an East Coast missile defense site.
Im happy were going to add 20 more
interceptors, but it should be 60 more,
he says. We really dont have enough,
and we need to recognize that fact and
get after it more aggressively.
Rogers says the U.S. should never
have paused GBI production as it did
in the past and should not do so now.
If the last kill vehicle rolls of the line
this year, that gives you approximately
44 or 45 kill vehicles in the feet. As you
test those kill vehicles, youre dropping
below 44 after a period of time, Wilson
explains. Time is of the essence to get
AviationWeek.com/awst
Anatomy of the
Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle
The culmination of decades of research, testing and re-
fnement of hit-to-kill interceptor technology, the Exoat-
mospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV) is designed to intercept pay-
loads of high-speed ballistic missiles in the midcourse or
exoatmospheric phase of fight in space. A prototype EKV
successfully intercepted its frst missile target in 1999 and
was put into production in 2003 to meet the George W. Bush
administrations urgent requirement for a homeland missile
defense capability. The EKV acquires and tracks targets us-
ing a highly sensitive infrared sensor, with target updates
provided by terrestrial and space-based sensors and radars.
Divert thrusters
Inertial measurement unit
Sensor sunshade
Electro-optical/infrared wideband sensor
Composite body structure
Sources: Raytheon and the Missile Defense Agency
AviationWeek.com/awst
The EKV uses advanced discrimination algorithms to difer-
entiate between target reentry vehicles and decoys or space
debris. Within the next fve years, the EKV will be replaced
by the more modular, reliable and lower-cost Redesigned
Kill Vehicle (RKV) being developed by Boeing with Lockheed
Martin and Raytheon. By 2025, the Missile Defense Agency
plans to demonstrate the next-generation Multi-Object Kill
Vehicle, which would carry several tiny kill vehicles on a com-
mon maneuvering payload bus. Each miniature kill vehicle
will have its own seeker and two-way communications data
link for collaborative discrimination and targeting.
Fuel and oxidizer tanks
Attitude control thrusters
Electronic control unit
Battery pack
Radio transceiver and antenna
AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 61
 MISSILE DEFENSE

those additional quantities out there. If
you turn EKV of, its harder to turn it
back on.
As Raytheon works to sell additional
EKVs, a team including Boeing, Lock-
heed Martin and Raytheon are proceed-
ing with development of the RKV.
The Boeing-led program, which com-
pleted a preliminary design review in
March, is valued at $5.8 billion. It brings
together experts from across the U.S.
missile defense community in a na-
tional efort to increase the reliability,
producibility, testability and cost-efec-
tiveness of kill vehicles, according to
the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA),
which is responsible for the program.
The RKV will begin replacing origi-
nal CE-1 and CE-2 EKV variants, but
not newer, more reliable CE-2 Block 1s.
The program remains one of the
MDAs top priorities, despite work be-
ing slowed in the agencys latest bud-
get request. The RKV was set to begin
replacing EKVs starting in 2020, after
testing, but the latest schedule delays
several key tests by 1-2 years to begin
felding the weapon system in 2022.
MDA Director Lt. Gen. Samuel
Greaves says he is confdent in the GMD
systems ability to counter new threats
from North Korea. Although he was
referring to the current generation of
GBIs and EKVs, he says the RKV is the
necessary next step in the improvement
and evolution of kill-vehicle technology.
RKV is an improved single-shot
capability, Greaves explains. The
frst step is to deliver RKV, to build the
confdence in the warfghters mindset
and improve tactics, techniques and
procedures.
Boeing is responsible for the overall
RKV program, and Lockheed and Ray-
theon are major suppliers. Raytheon is
handling more than 50% of the work-
share, including eventual production
in Tucson, Arizona, in its specialized
Space Factory.
The team is working toward a critical
design review, after which actual hard-
ware will start coming together for test-
ing. Raytheon is confdent the RKV can
be delivered sooner than the latest time
line without compromising engineering.
Wilson says the legacy EKVs were
rushed into production and felded to

Clustered Kill Vehicles

Raytheon warns against short-changing MOKV development
James Drew Washington and Jen DiMascio Tucson, Arizona

T
he Holy Grail of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA)
has long been the Multi-Object Kill Vehicle (MOKV),
which would allow one interceptor to tackle several
incoming nuclear warheads hurtling toward the U.S.
The realization of this technology could make todays
interceptors look rather primitive and wasteful, since op-
erators must currently fre two or three multimillion-dollar
Ground-Based Interceptors (GBI) at each warhead they de-
tect to maximize the chances of success.
The feet of interceptors located at Fort Greely, Alaska,
and Vandenberg AFB, California, might take on 20 incoming
warheads at most when armed with the single-target Exoat-
mospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV). But what happens if each in-
coming missile carries multiple warheads, plus decoys and
other penetration aids? That is where MOKV would excel.
The MDA has hired Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Ray-
theon to begin maturing the advanced sensor, guidance,
propulsion and communication technologies required for
the MOKV payload, essentially a cluster of tiny, wirelessly
networked kill vehicles.
Support for the program has been increasing in the wake
of new missile tests by North Korea and Iran, which U.S.
President Donald Trump singled out as rogue nations from
the U.N. podium Sept. 19, where he emphasized that the
countries are two of the most serious threats to U.S. na-
tional security.
To counter the potential threat of a missile raid by one of
these countries, the MDA has proposed accelerating MOKV
by about fve years for deployment in the latter half of the
2020s.
But while contractors involved in MOKV would happily
speed up development of their competing concepts with the
infusion of additional funds, they do not want the accelera-
tion to come at the expense of the nearer-term Redesigned
Kill Vehicle (RKV) being developed by Boeing along with
Lockheed and Raytheon.
The importance of RKV cannot be overstated, says
Rondell Wilson, Raytheons lead engineer for air and mis-
sile defense products. There is no new science here. None.
It is really about engineering and integration. MOKV, while
that capability is needed based on where the threat is going,
that technology is further out. It is not as mature.
Wilson also was involved in this kind of work when Lock-
heed and Raytheon frst developed MOKV-like concepts un-
der the MDAs Multi-Kill Vehicle (MKV) program, which was
terminated by Defense Secretary Robert Gates in 2009. The
cancelation of MKV came not long after Lockheed conducted
a simulation of its kill-vehicle concept operating in space at
the National Hover Test Facility at Edwards AFB, California,
in December 2008.
The competing systems from Lockheed and Raytheon
were dubbed MKV-L and MKV-R, respectively, and would
have armed the GBI, SM-3 Block 2A air-defense missile and
the MDAs now-defunct Kinetic Energy Interceptor. After
several years in limbo, the initiative resumed in 2015 under
MOKV.
The three companies involved are reticent to discuss their
concepts because much of the work is classifed. But each
mini kill vehicle will be independently targetable with its own
sensor for object identifcation, tracking and discrimination
using advanced algorithms. They will also communicate with
each other via data link for collaborative swarming.
Wilson anticipates strong support for MOKV from the
Trump administration. In fact, the MDAs budget proposal
for fscal 2018 would accelerate the program, with the goal of
achieving demonstrated capability in the 2025 time frame.

62 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 AviationWeek.com/awst

meet urgent national requirements.
The drivers then, as now, are North
Korea and Iran.
People liken [the EKV] to a pro-
totype vehicle that was prepped for
service, and thats not too far from the
truth. Its a very complex vehicle to
build, Wilson says. Its taken several
iterations of manufacturing experience
to build it properly. I think its a very
reliable vehicle; however, the lessons
learned on how difcult it is to produce
that vehicle have been rolled into the
Standard Missile-3 family and RKV.
The new RKV uses the same seek-
er developed for the newest SM-3
Block 2A exoatmospheric interceptor.
The industry team completed a seeker
requirements review with the govern-
ment last year and is now developing
software updates for better tracking
and target discrimination of rogue
warheads, as well as algorithms to dis-
tinguish real warheads from decoys and
penetration aids.
The RKVs communication system
is being improved to receive targeting
information updates throughout most
of the fight, instead of intermittently.
The government has also reinstated key
survivability requirements to overcome
advanced enemy tactics such as blind-
ing by nuclear explosion. The number
of unique parts required to build the
RKV will also come down dramatically
to reduce cost and streamline assembly.
[RKV is] a capability thats needed
by the warfighter, Wilson says. Its
easier to produce, and if something
needs to be modifed or updated on the
kill vehicle, its out of commission for
weeks instead of months at a time.
The GMD system is the largest and
most costly element of the U.S. ballistic
missile defense architecture, requiring
billions of dollars in funding each year.
Since 2002, the MDA has received ap-
proximately $123 billion from Congress
to develop that architecture, which
includes money for GMD, Terminal
High-Altitude Area Defense, Aegis and
dozens of other interceptors, launchers,
sensors and command-and-control sys-
tems. The MDA will require $37 billion
more through fiscal 2021 to continue
those eforts, says the U.S. Government
Accountability Ofce. c

MISSILE DEFENSE AGENCY

The agencys new acqui- Boeing and Lockheed are
sition strategy compresses leveraging their work on past
the risk-reduction and prod- initiatives and the ongoing RKV
uct-development phases to program to grow their in-house
shave about fve years of the kill-vehicle teams and challenge
schedule. Wilson says the Raytheon.
competing kill-vehicle teams David Dutcher, Boeings di-
were awarded contracts ear- rector of GBI and RKV pro-
lier this year for the initial grams, says the company has
30-month technology matu- the knowledge and experience
ration phase. That period to produce kill vehicles and will
will be followed by a two-year be gunning to win a prime posi-
proof-of-concept phase prior tion for MOKV development and
to the source-selection deci- production. He points to Boeings
sion for development, pro- contributions to the Raytheon
duction and felding. Standard Missile-3 and Lock-
With what is going on heed Patriot Advanced Capabil-
in the world today, I would ity-3 interceptors and extensive
like to see an acceleration of experience pairing Raytheons
MOKV, he says. [But] we EKV with GBI booster stacks.
should not rush to MOKV at We certainly believe were ca-
the expense of RKV. pable of being in the kill-vehicle
Some of those cutting- product line, he says.
edge technologies are not at Bruce Jurcevich, Lockheeds
the appropriate technology director of advanced intercep-
readiness level. Based on my tor systems, says his company
26-plus years of experience in The Multi-Object Kill Vehicle program was is committed to the MDAs two-
kill vehicles, I want to make resurrected by the Obama administration, which phase approach of building RKV
sure we do not short-change had terminated an earlier efort called Multiple Kill and then MOKV. Lockheeds
risk reduction for MOKV, Vehicle (MKV). Raytheon and Lockheed Martin had RKV team is based in Huntsville,
Wilson stresses. been maturing competing concepts (Lockheeds Alabama, and its MOKV group
The MDAs fscal 2018 bud- pictured) for MKV prior to its cancelation in 2009. operates from Sunnyvale, Cali-
get proposal includes $253 fornia.
million for MOKV-related technology development, including Jurcevich says a signifcant number of lessons learned
development and testing of a small solid-propellant divert from Lockheeds earlier MKV program will be applied to
and attitude control system. Spending on MOKV will aver- MOKV development, with the aim of enabling each intercep-
age $230 million per year through fscal 2022 to complete tor to take out multiple incoming threats.
technology maturation and begin development. The latest round of contracts for MOKV was awarded to
At Raytheon, the MOKV program is being run by its Ad- Lockheed and Raytheon in April and Boeing in May. They
vanced Missile Systems innovation cell. It is the companys are valued at $53-60 million each, with a period of perfor-
sixth distinct kill-vehicle product. mance scheduled to run through early 2020. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/OCTOBER 16-29, 2017 63

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 Viewpoint
Boeing Subsidy
Target Is China
By Danny Lam
T
he trade dispute sparked by Boeings charges that
Bombardier is dumping C Series aircraft at unfair
prices is marked by loud rhetoric on both sides of
the U.S.-Canada border. Ottawas Liberal government
has threatened Boeings defense business in Canada and
enlisted UK Prime Minister Theresa May to lobby U.S.
President Donald Trump. But Canadas attempts to de-
rail the petitions fled by Boeing with the U.S. Commerce
Department and International Trade Commission have
had no efect so far. The reason: The true target is not
really Canada, but China and its aircraft industry.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer charges
that Beijings eforts to subsidize and create national
champions and force technology transfers distorts mar-
kets throughout the world and is an unprecedented
threat to the global trading system. Take aviation. By
2036, China is projected to be the No. 1 or No. 2 market
in commercial aviation, a sector long dominated by Air-
bus and Boeing. Its national champion is Comac, which
manufactures the ARJ21 regional jet and C919 narrow-
body and is developingwith Russiathe CR929 wide-
Bombardiers strategy
amounts to aiding and abetting
Chinese mercantilism.
body. Beijings Made in China 2025 plan sets aggres-
sive targets for its aircraft industry, tasking Comac with
taking more than 10% of the domestic market for main-
line commercial aircraft.
That goal is backed by mercantilist policies and
substantial government subsidies. Beijing has tried to
break into markets before. China has poured tens of
billions of dollars into cracking the semiconductor oli-
gopoly controlled by U.S., Japanese, South Korean and
Taiwanese companies. But so far it has not been suc-
cessful in securing state-of-the-art integrated-circuit
manufacturing technology because the industry has
worked collaboratively to frustrate Chinese mercantil-
ist ambitions. This has prevented the semiconductor
market from sufering the fate of solar photovoltaics,
or steel, where the market has been gutted by excess
capacity from hundreds of new Chinese businesses.
Bombardiers China strategy amounts to aiding and
abetting Chinese mercantilism in commercial aviation,
with predictable consequences for the global aero-
space industry. The company entered into an agree-
ment with Comac in 2012 to explore synergies between
the C Series and C919, with the goal of challenging the
Airbus-Boeing duopoly. Nothing concrete came out of
66 AviAtion Week & SpAce technology/octoBeR 16-29, 2017
BomBardier
that, and Bombardier nearly went bankrupt in 2015 be-
fore receiving investments from Canadian provincial
and federal entities of at least $3 billion.
In May 2017, the Financial Times reported that Comac
and Bombardier held talks about Chinese entities buy-
ing a stake in Bombardier Commercial Aircraft or the
C Series, quoting an unnamed source as saying, every-
thing is on the table. That included Chinese access to
Bombardiers technologies and its marketing, distribu-
tion and support infrastructure. This potential collabo-
ration with China is, in my opinion, the principal but un-
spoken reason behind Boeings trade complaint.
As a Canadian company, Bombardier is entitled to
preferences under the North American Free Trade Act
(NAFTA) that sharply restrict U.S. trade actions so long
as the product qualifes as NAFTA-origin. Indeed, Can-
adas entitlement to arbitration under NAFTAs Section
19 may be its last resort in the C Series dispute short
of taking its case to the World Trade Organization. Not
surprisingly, the U.S. wants to eliminate Chapter 19 in
the renegotiation of NAFTA now underway.
So long as components add up to 50% of transaction
value or 60% of net cost, a product qualifes for NAFTA
preference. What if Chinese aerospace companies gained
access to those same NAFTA preferences?
In its defense against Boeings claims, Bombardier
says more than 50% of Canadian-assembled C Series
aircraft come from the U.S., including its engines and
avionics. The wing comes from Bombardiers plant in
Northern Ireland, but much of the fuselage already
comes from SACC in China. It is conceivable that Bom-
bardier could incorporate NAFTA-qualifed engines,
avionics and subsystems, but complete the fnal assem-
bly in Chinaand have an aircraft that still qualifes as
NAFTA-origin under the current rules.
Similarly, Chinese-built aircraft branded Bom-
bardier could be sold from Canada while bypassing
all tarifs against a China-based manufacturer. And
Bombardier technology could enable Comac to build a
successor to the C919 that would be truly competitive
with Airbus and Boeing oferings in China. In other
words, with Chinese investment, Comac-Bombardier
could rapidly stand up as a capable competitor to the
Airbus-Boeing duopoly in the North American and
Chinese markets.
Boeings complaints about C Series subsidies are
getting the media attention, but Bombardiers willing-
ness to transfer technologies and knowhow to China is
at the heart of this trade dispute. c
Danny Lam is a research associate at the University of Water-
loo in Ontario. His research includes work on China, NAFTA
and defense issues.
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